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RB Chris Carson, SEA - 10.7.21 - Neck Issue


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26 minutes ago, Tool said:

Prosise caught 5 passes in like half a game last week.

No Seahawks running back has had more than 37 receptions in a season in the Russell Wilson era.  He doesn't need to dump off when under pressure.  He can scramble.  But Prosise is an exceptional receiver so his use is intentional.  Most of those 5 receptions were probably scripted.  A non-elite receiving running back like Penny isn't going to have a high reception total with Wilson.

Edited by Don Hutson
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On 9/22/2019 at 11:06 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 This dude’s hands are killing me. 

To be fair, his hands aren't the problem. Only one of his fumbles was a hands drop, and that was the botched handoff with Wilson, when he never clasped the ball.

The others were all balls punched out of his hands, which is only partially preventable, even for the best backs. Remember Tiki Barber and his terrible reputation for fumbling? He had an amazing season SUBSEQUENT to that string of "fumbles".

You can see on his fumble on Sunday that he was putting into practice his new clasp of the ball, with both hands hugging the ball close to his chest until he was tackled and was going hard to ground, which is when he put his left arm to brace the fall, and his right arm was punched. As Carroll said in the presser, he needs to go to ground with both hands still on the ball. Hard for a big guy.

In Rugby (playoffs currently on now, can watch for some REAL football action, good stuff), the tackling team is penalized for trying to strip the ball from a runner, it's called "raking" and is a no-no. It makes sense that one runner, stood up by 2 or 3 opponents, doesn't become the target of even more players hitting the ball from them.

But it's a different game in the NFL, and Carson needs to figure out what he has to do to protect the ball better. Watch Kamara. That dude never fumbles.

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It's so weird because not only has Carson not been a fumbler in the past, his ball control had been great.

 

Regarding Tiki, Coughlin (back when he was STILL a disciplinarian) drilled into Tiki his "high and tight" ball style; he made Tiki have to carry a football around the facility and at any time people could try to slap it out. If he fumbled it the whole team was penalized in practice... I mean Carson's recent issues are nowhere near Tiki's but maybe that kind of approach is what he needs.

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4 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Are you talking about Tiki's 45 fumbles over a 6 year period?  I guess you could call that a string of fumbles.........

I'm talking about 2005. He had 6 rushing fumbles and 3 receiving fumbles in 2003, another 5 rushing fumbles in 2004 and rushed for 1500 yards, then in 2005 he had 1800 yards rushing, and 54 for 530 receiving with just 1 fumble all year. He won a lot of fantasy leagues that year. 

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not sure what others are talking about, but YPC average is a GREAT barometer of how poorly Carson is playing.

on runs in the redzone, he avg's 3.4 ypc.. for runs from his own 21 to the opposing teams 20 - so essentially the meat n potatoes, nearly the entire field, he has 26 carries for 37 yards, or 2.9 ypc avg. 

for the season he averages 3.5 ypc and 15 carries each game. he puked out a 3.07 ypc avg vs. a lousy bengals defense. he's coughed it up 3x already.

I think he's closer to the bench than  anything else. 

by comparison, Breida kills Carson with ypc avg , as he does far more with less than Carson, averaging 5.5 per carry, 13.7 carries/gm, 75.3 yards/gm classic does more with less type of player.  it's only a matter of time for Penny the shine.

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7 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

not sure what others are talking about, but YPC average is a GREAT barometer of how poorly Carson is playing.

on runs in the redzone, he avg's 3.4 ypc.. for runs from his own 21 to the opposing teams 20 - so essentially the meat n potatoes, nearly the entire field, he has 26 carries for 37 yards, or 2.9 ypc avg. 

for the season he averages 3.5 ypc and 15 carries each game. he puked out a 3.07 ypc avg vs. a lousy bengals defense. he's coughed it up 3x already.

I think he's closer to the bench than  anything else. 

by comparison, Breida kills Carson with ypc avg , as he does far more with less than Carson, averaging 5.5 per carry, 13.7 carries/gm, 75.3 yards/gm classic does more with less type of player.  it's only a matter of time for Penny the shine.

I tend to agree with you and if Penny were available last week, I believe Carson may have been benched for good. Having said that, this is his final chance IMO against a weak Arizona defense. He better get it done or he's dunzo.

Yahoo has him at a laughable 16 pts. forecasted in a .5 ppr league. They are trying to tempt us I think. I'm sending him to the bench for Galman and can't even flex him over Waller or McLaurin.

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1 hour ago, need2know said:

would you guys bench carson this week in favor of edleman and mclaurin?  ppr

Funny, that's exactly what I did. Carson is on my bench this week and Terry M is in. Did you see what Evans did to the NYG defense?  Excited about the Terry M upside this week.

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5 hours ago, Futz said:

I tend to agree with you and if Penny were available last week, I believe Carson may have been benched for good. Having said that, this is his final chance IMO against a weak Arizona defense. He better get it done or he's dunzo.

Yahoo has him at a laughable 16 pts. forecasted in a .5 ppr league. They are trying to tempt us I think. I'm sending him to the bench for Galman and can't even flex him over Waller or McLaurin.

I don't think that is laughable at all. Arizona basically has let teams live in their red zone for 3 weeks, there is no indication(so far) that Penny will even be back this week, let alone handle a sizable load, and the Seahawks will be looking to make a statement, after a sort of embarrassing loss, to a team they should have beaten.

I think Carson is pretty easily a top-15 RB this week, and could certainly see 100 yards and a TD or 2. Seahawks should have no problem dropping 30+ this week. If Carson doesn't put up a good week, then I would be worried, but most likely, the question is whether Carson will be a sell high after this week, or if the last 2 weeks are just a blip. I personally think he'll maintain RB2 value, but that the RB1 optimism may be unreachable. 

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3 hours ago, TheDemon said:

Even FBG has him at 10th overall RB this week (and 9 in PPR). Not sure I get it.

As a worried Carson owner, in a Carson thread, monitoring this situation with excruciating  minute detail, I see nothing wrong with information that helps confirm my unwarranted bias that Carson is going to be just fine.

Basically looking hard at any reports of Penny practicing again, and if there is any beat writer who comments on the split of reps Carson is getting versus Prosise in the meantime. Though I am not sure that kind of detail ever comes out of regular season practice like it does in preseason/OTAs.

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5 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I don't think that is laughable at all. Arizona basically has let teams live in their red zone for 3 weeks, there is no indication(so far) that Penny will even be back this week, let alone handle a sizable load, and the Seahawks will be looking to make a statement, after a sort of embarrassing loss, to a team they should have beaten.

I think Carson is pretty easily a top-15 RB this week, and could certainly see 100 yards and a TD or 2. Seahawks should have no problem dropping 30+ this week. If Carson doesn't put up a good week, then I would be worried, but most likely, the question is whether Carson will be a sell high after this week, or if the last 2 weeks are just a blip. I personally think he'll maintain RB2 value, but that the RB1 optimism may be unreachable. 

Is it possible? Sure, the situation is great, but don't you think this is not taking into account the volatility of his position atop the depth chart to a large degree? I mean, at least temper it into a realistic number with that in mind. Looks like yahoo has now bumped it down to 14.67 for the #7 RB overall. This is still better than Ingram, Ekeler, Cook, Chubb, and a whole host of other RBs I'd want to start in place of this situation.

1 carry and you could easily have a goose egg here.

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8 minutes ago, Futz said:

Is it possible? Sure, the situation is great, but don't you think this is not taking into account the volatility of his position atop the depth chart to a large degree? I mean, at least temper it into a realistic number with that in mind. Looks like yahoo has now bumped it down to 14.67 for the #7 RB overall. This is still better than Ingram, Ekeler, Cook, Chubb, and a whole host of other RBs I'd want to start in place of this situation.

1 carry and you could easily have a goose egg here.

I'm not expecting him to fumble. I think the fumbles are a bit fluky, he's shown zero issues before. So while sure, there is a chance 1 carry and he's done, I'd put that chance at maybe 5% at most, probably no more likely than getting injured would be.

I agree I wouldn't have him ahead of any of those other 4 RB's, but I would fully trust him as an RB2. I'd certainly start him over guys like Gallman, or other waiver wire flavors of the week.

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I think Carson is a safe play this week. Sure, he has a shorter leash than some of his counterparts out there, bit at thia point i think you have to start him.

 

IMO his fall from #1, if it occurs, will be slow. This isnt NE where a guy goes i to the dog house on 1 carry never to be seen from again. Carson didnt suddenly just start with fumble issues. He had them last year yet Seattle stuck with him. 

Penny looks better than last year, but weve only seen him in small doses. In larger doses he may be less effective, and he may not be mentally (or physically) ready for larger doses. 

That all being said, I think the hopes of Carson being a top 10 or more RB are a little misguided. I think he will have RB2 value rest of season unless Penny makes significant strides and Carson continues to put the ball on the ground.

Could be a sell high situation after this week if you can find someone who still values him as a RB1

Worst case, IMO, he is a RB1a or 1b in one of the most run heavy offenses. 

Edited by Johnny B. Goode
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4 hours ago, RushHour said:

This is almost the same situation as James Conner.

A JAG RB who is favoured (for reasons unknown) by his coach, gets all the carries, produces like a JAG. Meanwhile better options waste away on the bench. 

There's opinion, and then there are axes to grind.

Both Connor and Carson were top 15 fantasy backs last year in both standard and PPR. 

You may think they are underperforming this year, and thus flash in the pans, but they both put up objectively and decidedly non-JAG performances.

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8 hours ago, The Frankman said:

Man if Penny is actually out and Carson doesn't fumble vs. Arizona... he had a massive chance to take hold of the job again. Thursday and Friday will tell.

I drafted Carson in redraft and my takeaway here is the reminder that setting aside a handful of elite players, you don't win or take hold of jobs. Carson "won" the starting job in camp and preseason but that's a starting line not a finish line. It's trite but true. Success is rented and every Sunday the rent is due. Carson is in arrears right now. Maybe he gets caught up, maybe not.

I tried to trade for Penny a couple weeks ago but it was already too late. The owner hopes he has an eventual RB2 on his bench and if he does, why not just wait?

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I don't think Carson is done. He run better than Penny last year and still runs pretty well. There's not much holes in that line and coach is just running him straight to the wall. Everyone is expecting Seattle to run and it's hurting the teams running a lot. Last year was last year, this year it's a total different thing. So many of our drives start with 1 and 20 and it's hurting the running game too. I wish we would start passing more, so the running would be better too. Those fumble issues were not there last year, so it's fixable. 

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58 minutes ago, Fireinside said:

I don't think Carson is done. He run better than Penny last year and still runs pretty well. There's not much holes in that line and coach is just running him straight to the wall. Everyone is expecting Seattle to run and it's hurting the teams running a lot. Last year was last year, this year it's a total different thing. So many of our drives start with 1 and 20 and it's hurting the running game too. I wish we would start passing more, so the running would be better too. Those fumble issues were not there last year, so it's fixable. 

Man that was tough to read.

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45 minutes ago, Smack Tripper said:

Kudos, killer reference.

One of my all time fave movies. Let's hope he's a survivor like Tuco, and not how Antonio Casale fared.

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Dynasty, grabbed him off waivers for cheap 2 years ago... his price gradually climbed since, but he was still seeming underpriced in Week 1.  But just had to cut bait. No hard feelings Chris, I hope you devolve into a time-share / committee,  😛 but I know you're a decent back. 

Having Hunter Henry and Jared Cook looked dreamy going into the season. Now?? A cavernous hole in my lineup. Was able to get what for my lineup is a great return: Waller to plug the TE spot (and probably keep it after HH comes back) + D'Andre Swift, who seems tailor-made for the NFL (somewhere between Sproles and Tiki Barber I'm hoping! Am I dreaming?) At any rate, grading this trade can't be done til this season's done (both teams involved at the top of the league thus far)

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On 9/26/2019 at 6:40 PM, Mario Wario said:

So, Penny was able to practice today, but in limited fashion. The plot thickens for Carson, although knowing that Penny has a bad hammy, maybe the team will still give Carson the full work...but I do agree, this Sunday is all or nothing! 

Whether Penny is active or not, I think as long as Carson doesn't fumble, 17-23 touches are probably the expectation. 

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1 hour ago, travdogg said:

Whether Penny is active or not, I think as long as Carson doesn't fumble, 17-23 touches are probably the expectation. 

They are certainly my expectation!

I think you are right. If Penny plays I don't think they split load evenly as Penny would be just coming back from an injury that's kept him from practicing most of the week, so would think they would not want to aggravate.

I see Penny not being involved even if he suits up, and it's Prosise who spells, but if Carson runs well and holds the rock, it will be the typical spell we saw for Carson previously with Carson getting lion's share of the carries.

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There's my boy.

22/104 on the ground. Had a TD called back because of f'n Dissley

4/41 receiving.

0 Fumbles.

Prosise got a carry in a key down inside the 10 and ran for a score, prior to which he was 2 for -5.

Carson's a stud, period.

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4 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

There's my boy.

22/104 on the ground. Had a TD called back because of f'n Dissley

4/41 receiving.

0 Fumbles.

Prosise got a carry in a key down inside the 10 and ran for a score, prior to which he was 2 for -5.

Carson's a stud, period.

Whoa nelly. Glad he did good today even if I benched him for Gallman but let's slow the stud roll. Studs are complete backs that you can absolutely count on. One game in a row doesn't make it that. Encouraging for sure but it's going to be game to game for awhile until he earns the trust back.

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9 minutes ago, Futz said:

Whoa nelly. Glad he did good today even if I benched him for Gallman but let's slow the stud roll. Studs are complete backs that you can absolutely count on. One game in a row doesn't make it that. Encouraging for sure but it's going to be game to game for awhile until he earns the trust back.

As a Carson owner I agree. Penny is still in his rear view mirror but he did pretty much everything he could do today to hold him off for now.

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15 minutes ago, Futz said:

Whoa nelly. Glad he did good today even if I benched him for Gallman but let's slow the stud roll. Studs are complete backs that you can absolutely count on. One game in a row doesn't make it that. Encouraging for sure but it's going to be game to game for awhile until he earns the trust back.

Please. 

Carson was a top 10 back last year (7th in rushing), just shy of 250 carries with over 1100 yards and 9 TDs.

Top 10 back this year in rushing yards coming into this game and adds another century to it.

He's proved himself.

Coming into this season, he didn't have a fumble problem. He did in the last few games but got the full load of 22 carries (only other back with a carry was Prosise who had 3) with rock solid security.

Clearly regained the team's trust and earned it with this performance.

Burden on proof is not on him, it's on you if you don't think he's a stud.

Edited by Stompin' Tom Connors
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Just now, habsfan said:

As a Carson owner I agree. Penny is still in his rear view mirror but he did pretty much everything he could do today to hold him off for now.

Sure, Penny will still be in his rear view mirror as a guy the team has a higher round investment in. 

Penny looked good so far so we'll see how he'll be worked in, as a speller as he always has been, or more.

But there is zero reason they should force Penny in given how solid Carson has been all year in all aspects of the game.

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  • Joe Bryant changed the title to RB Chris Carson, SEA - 10.7.21 - Neck Issue

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