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RB Chris Carson, SEA - 10.7.21 - Neck Issue (1 Viewer)

Loipz said:
IMO if just McLaurin then maaaaybe you’d get Aaron Jones from a panicking owner. Ingram from someone in need of a WR. At least in my leagues where name values outweigh production at times. 
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 But is that an upgrade?  GB seems very comfortable going 60-40 RBBC, and as we just saw, the doghouse door isn’t exactly closed. 

if someone offered me Jones+Scary Terry for Carson I’d thank them for the fair offer and politely decline. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Rankings can be misleading.   Carson’s been my most dependable player the last few weeks. I’m inclined to hang onto him & see if he can finish top 6. 

unless it’s a buy-low on a hurt Kamara or package Carson with someone better to get a CMC, Chubb or Cook, I’m not sure I’d more him.

Of the current “top 6” PPR backs Eckeler appears to be dropping off the face of the Earth, Fournette is difficult to project going forward & a huge health risk, David Johnson is banged up, Aaron Jones appears to be embroiled in a RBBC (and squarely in the doghouse after fumbling l, then later dropping that duck TD) and Ingram is pretty inconsistent, depending on which position his QB feels like playing that day.  

I don’t think I’d want any of those guys over Carson right now.  So if you’re aiming high at Cook, Kamara, Chubb or CMC, go for it.
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Yes, when I meant Top 6 I meant Zeke, CMac, Cook, Kamara.  

I do think you make a good case. The way Seattle is using him, you have to figure he still gets the bulk of the goal line carries. And even if a run D is tough, Wilson seems to be able to conjure up ways to get the offense down in scoring position.

 
Truebluey said:
Yes, when I meant Top 6 I meant Zeke, CMac, Cook, Kamara.  

I do think you make a good case. The way Seattle is using him, you have to figure he still gets the bulk of the goal line carries. And even if a run D is tough, Wilson seems to be able to conjure up ways to get the offense down in scoring position.
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And he’s been getting more receptions this year, including around the RZ. 

 
Chris Carson rushed 21 times for 65 yards in the Seahawks' Week 7 loss to the Ravens.

He "added" three catches for nine yards on five targets. It was tough for anyone to gain their footing in this game as it rained throughout the day in Seattle, and nobody other than Lamar Jackson stood out in the box score here. Carson should rebound in a big way next week in the dome against the Falcons' nonexistent defense.

Oct 20, 2019, 7:49 PM ET
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Chris Carson notched 105 yards on 16 carries while also delivering two catches for 28 yards on two targets Sunday in Seattle’s Week 9 win over the Buccaneers.

The numbers look fine on paper, but it wasn't quite the dominant performance you'd expect from a running back of Carson's elite caliber. Much of his output came on a 59-yard burst, which nearly ended in disaster when Devin White came from behind to strip the football from Carson, though luckily it landed out of bounds. Carson wasn't as lucky when he coughed it up in the fourth quarter, resulting in his fourth lost fumble of the year. Being loose with the football is a good way to get benched, though coach Pete Carroll never lost confidence in his workhorse, who came through with a clutch, one-handed catch on Seattle's eventual game-winning drive in overtime. Ball-security remains a critical concern for Carson, though it's hard to argue with his production as the third-year power-back has now rushed for 90-plus yards in five of his last six outings. The Niners present a challenge in Week 10, though Kenyan Drake had no trouble gashing them for 162 yards in his Cardinals debut last week.

Nov 3, 2019, 7:53 PM ET
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Gonna be interesting to see what happens given the fumbles.

Like always, I will stick to the line that Carson is too proven and too effective to limit touches.

But while he hasn’t had a whisper of a problem since the early season fumbles, it can’t be said that it’s not concerning or even a problem, and you know that’s gonna be a huge topic in the media, on boards/social media, and otherwise this whole week.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Gonna be interesting to see what happens given the fumbles.

Like always, I will stick to the line that Carson is too proven and too effective to limit touches.

But while he hasn’t had a whisper of a problem since the early season fumbles, it can’t be said that it’s not concerning or even a problem, and you know that’s gonna be a huge topic in the media, on boards/social media, and otherwise this whole week.
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They kept giving him the ball, including on the final drive and at the stripe. 

sometimes the defense makes plays too. I don’t see anything from Penny that would allow the Seahawks the luxury of punishing Carson. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
They kept giving him the ball, including on the final drive and at the stripe. 

sometimes the defense makes plays too. I don’t see anything from Penny that would allow the Seahawks the luxury of punishing Carson. 
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I agree. If the team had a lot of faith in Penny in a tight game like that, Carson probably would have been benched. Continuing to roll Carson out seems to say a lot about how Carroll views both players.

 
Carson is ranked pretty high this week....in or near the top ten for RBs.  The Monday Night matchup against SF doesn't seem favorable to me, I'm considering other options.

 
boilerdave said:
Carson is ranked pretty high this week....in or near the top ten for RBs.  The Monday Night matchup against SF doesn't seem favorable to me, I'm considering other options.
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Last 3 games RBs vs SF

Peterson 20-80 yards

McCaffrey 14-117-TD

Drake 15-110-TD

With this week taking a lot of people due to bye week, there are no other options for me.  He is locked in at RB1 as I scramble to fill other spots.

 
boilerdave said:
Carson is ranked pretty high this week....in or near the top ten for RBs.  The Monday Night matchup against SF doesn't seem favorable to me, I'm considering other options.
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Guy gets 20 touches a game and just put up over 100 yards rushing vs the stingy TB run defense. A guy who's been with his team for 3 days just put up 150 yds vs them and they lost their best LB for the season. If hes not in your top 10 any week especially a week with 6 teams on bye, Id love to know who is.

 
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shadyridr said:
Guy gets 20 touches a game and just put up over 100 yards rushing vs the stingy TB run defense. A guy who's been with his team for 3 days just put up 150 yds vs them and they lost their best LB for the season. If hes not in your top 10 any week especially a week with 6 teams on bye, Id love to know who is.
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This all day. No question it's a hard match up, but Carson is literally in the must-start conversation, even as SEA takes on Gordon and seems to have a little more balanced run/pass attack.

Carson is involved in all phases of the game.

I am just hoping he doesn't fumble again which would definitely fire up the same kind of chatter we saw in early season. 

 
Rotoworld Backfield Breakdown: Seattle Seahawks

RB1: Chris Carson (73% snap rate, 22.7 opportunities per game)

RB2: Rashaad Penny (13%, 6.3)

RB3: C.J. Prosise (14%, 4)

Notes: Carson was seemingly on the verge of being benched after fumbling three times in Weeks 1-3.

All he's done since is work as the offense's featured three-down workhorse:

Week 4: 76% snaps, 22 carries, 4 targets

Week 5: 84% snaps, 27 carries, 2 targets

Week 6: 79% snaps, 24 carries, 4 targets

Week 7: 89% snaps, 21 carries, 5 targets

Week 8: 69% snaps, 20 carries, 1 target

Week 9: 85% snaps, 16 carries, 2 targets

Carson did fumble twice in Week 9, although he wasn't benched and wound up getting each of the backfield's remaining six touches following the second fumble.

The 49ers join the Vikings, Saints, Buccaneers and Patriots as the league's only defenses to allow fewer than 20 PPR per game to opposing RBs. Still, Carson's status as one of the league's true featured backs makes him a matchup-proof RB1 until further notice. Nobody else in the league has broken more tackles than Carson (57) through nine weeks.
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Chris Carson rushed 25 times for 89 yards and one touchdown in the Seahawks' 27-24, Week 10 win over the 49ers.

He added three catches for 12 yards on four targets. Carson ran as hard as ever in this physical dogfight between two defensive-minded teams. One of the toughest runners in football, Carson continued to push piles and fall forward for extra yards. His score came from one yard out in the third quarter to extend the lead to 21-10. Carson has at least 20 touches in six of his last seven games, and Rashaad Penny lost another fumble on one of his two touches. Carson is as secure an RB1 there is in fantasy as the Seahawks head into their bye.
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Carson also fumbled but it was recovered by Seattle.

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
True Bluey said: "Looking at Carson's upcoming schedule against a string of brutal run defenses:

week 9 TB (#1 run D)

week 10 SF  (#12 run D)

week 11 BYE

week 12 PHI  (#2 run D)

week 13 MIN  (#4 run D)

Trade him now?"

Rankings can be misleading.  TB is a top run defense because teams have been passing all over them. It skews the numbers. 

They were also getting unreal play from their LBs the first few weeks, especially Barrett. He’s been banged up & his play tanked the last two weeks. 

All legitimately tough run defenses.

but it’s not like Carson hasn’t faced any tough run defenses to date. CLE was supposed to be a tough test & Carson shredded them. 
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Good call. Against two of the "toughest" run defenses in the NFL the past 2 weeks he has been absolutely money.  If you traded for him I'm thinking you're pretty happy.

 
Truebluey said:
Good call. Against two of the "toughest" run defenses in the NFL the past 2 weeks he has been absolutely money.  If you traded for him I'm thinking you're pretty happy.
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Gets all the carries as well, so week in, week out, better than average chance of scoring a TD... as opposed to say a Marlon Mack.

 
Chris Carson rushed eight times for 26 yards in the Seahawks' 17-9, Week 12 win over the Eagles.

Carson added four catches for 31 yards on four targets, but the story for Seattle will again be Carson's fumbling issue. He put the ball on the ground on back-to-back second-half plays, recovering his own first one but losing it to Philly on the next play. (They charged the fumble to Russell Wilson because Carson technically never had possession of it.) With the fumbles, Carson registered a season-low eight carries and watched Rashaad Penny hang a 14-129-1 line on the board with a couple explosive runs. Coach Pete Carroll has stuck by Carson throughout the year, and Carson has been great when he isn't fumbling, but it'll be interesting to see if Penny stays involved next week against the Vikings.
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While I had voiced concern with Carson's early season fumbles, was glad to see him course-correct and the team stick with him,

Didn't catch the game today, but with b2b fumbles, and then Penny having a great day (and looking fantastic on his catch and run long TD), officially concerned, as all fellow Carson owners should be.

I remember Carson fumbling in his last game too, but was able to recover. This is officially a problem and won't be surprised to have those 20 carry games be a thing of the past, and to see a time-share going forward.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
While I had voiced concern with Carson's early season fumbles, was glad to see him course-correct and the team stick with him,

Didn't catch the game today, but with b2b fumbles, and then Penny having a great day (and looking fantastic on his catch and run long TD), officially concerned, as all fellow Carson owners should be.

I remember Carson fumbling in his last game too, but was able to recover. This is officially a problem and won't be surprised to have those 20 carry games be a thing of the past, and to see a time-share going forward.
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I think it was part of the gameplan vs the eagles.  It seemed like the eagles run def was not as stout when Carson left the field.  Penny had huge holes to run through.  It wasn't anything he did .  He got lucky imo and the eagles did not fear penny.  Guess we will find out.....

 
need2know said:
I think it was part of the gameplan vs the eagles.  It seemed like the eagles run def was not as stout when Carson left the field.  Penny had huge holes to run through.  It wasn't anything he did .  He got lucky imo and the eagles did not fear penny.  Guess we will find out.....
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Don't own either RB, and have always thought Penny was average while Carson was really good.   Yesterday, Penny looked decisive and explosive. 

 
It helped that Carson had one more touch (two plays into the next possession) after the second fumble, but one has to wonder how long Carroll will put up with Carson's fumbilitis.

 
Did all 9 lives finally expire? The further you go into a season the less tolerant any coach is going to be with playoffs on the line.

I think he continues to start in a timeshare now but it could be completely over if he fumbles again in the next couple of weeks.

I have dropped and picked up Penny twice already and now I probably won't get him when I need him.  :wall:

 
Posted this in the Penny thread, but Carson is on pace for an unprecedented number of fumbles in the modern era. 

Already has 7.  I don't see anyone with more than 9 after looking back 25 years

 
kittenmittens said:
Posted this in the Penny thread, but Carson is on pace for an unprecedented number of fumbles in the modern era. 

Already has 7.  I don't see anyone with more than 9 after looking back 25 years
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He only dropped one fumble, although that is still cause for concern. 

The second was a botched handoff. It looked like Carson expected Wilson to keep it, as there were was clearly miscommunication on the play. They both sort of threw their hands up and looked at each other. In some ways that might be worse for Carson, if they lose faith that he's understanding the plays called. 

 
Truebluey said:
He only dropped one fumble, although that is still cause for concern. 

The second was a botched handoff. It looked like Carson expected Wilson to keep it, as there were was clearly miscommunication on the play. They both sort of threw their hands up and looked at each other. In some ways that might be worse for Carson, if they lose faith that he's understanding the plays called. 
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Thanks.  It looks like they only scored him for 1 this week?  I think dropped handoffs go to the QB usually. 

 
Efritch4 said:
Sounding like a time share according to Head Coach Stinky Pete....UGHHH!!!
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Yeah, I just saw the comments. Definitely got interesting now once the dust has settled, although this week’s game vs. the Vikings will be a tough one for both RBs. If I had to guess, Carson is still the starter but he won’t get his usual heavy work (as Tom alluded to above) but we shall see. I think the team wanted this anyway to save Carson longterm, regardless of the fumble problem, even though it sure feels like it is about the fumbles. I’m going by what I’m seeing online. Again, I’m guessing here.

 
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kittenmittens said:
Posted this in the Penny thread, but Carson is on pace for an unprecedented number of fumbles in the modern era. 

Already has 7.  I don't see anyone with more than 9 after looking back 25 years
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Just posted this in the Penny thread:

Just Win Baby said:
Carson is actually responsible for 9 fumbles. 2 of them were attributed to Wilson because Carson never had possession... but that was because in both cases he was unable to cleanly take a simple handoff. (ETA: the one yesterday was apparently because Carson didn't realize Wilson changed the play at the line.)

Now combine that with Penny's performance yesterday, and I think it is obvious Carson will lose ground to Penny this week. What happens beyond this week depends on how they both play.
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Carson’s got to get his head right. Sounds like he was still rattled from the fumble the play before and missed the audible. Dude has been a huge part of their success this year and team overall fumbles a lot. He’ll still get plenty of chances as long as he doesn’t fumble more. 

 
People who are devaluing Carson because he'll lose carries are forgetting just how run-centric the Seattle offense is. To start the season, the RB position was thought  to be a timeshare between Carson and Penny and it's already been shown that if Penny got 9-12 carries Carson could still get 17-20 (because of Seattle's commitment to the run), goal-line and clock-killing work included. With the season starting to wind down they re-integrated Penny back in due to having 3 weeks of great practices and the other runners not being anything of note (looking at you CJ Prosise).

For Fantasy purposes does it lower Carson's ceiling? Sure, if his workload normalizes at 17-20 carries instead of 24+ he'll be more of an upside RB2 than an every-week RB1. But people are acting like Carson is now a FLEX (looking at you, RotoWorld). This isn't a Ronald Jones III/Peyton Barber thing here; Carson is going to get al least 70% of the work and isn't losing his short-yardage/clock killing role here unless of course, he fumbles a lot more. Carson STILL has the trust of the offense and Pete Carroll and is the best RB on blitz pickup.

 
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The Frankman said:
People who are devaluing Carson because he'll lose carries are forgetting just how run-centric the Seattle offense is. To start the season, the RB position was thought  to be a timeshare between Carson and Penny and it's already been shown that if Penny got 9-12 carries Carson could still get 17-20 (because of Seattle's commitment to the run), goal-line an clock-killing work included. With the season starting to wind down they re-integrated Penny back in due to having 3 weeks of great practices and the other runners not being anything of note (looking at you CJ Prosise).

For Fantasy purposes does it lower Carson's ceiling? Sure, if his workload normalizes at 17-20 carries he'll be more a upside RB2 than an every-week RB1. But people are acting like Carson is now a FLEX (looking at you, RotoWorld). This isn't a Ronald Jones III/Peyton Barber thing here; Carson is going to get al least 70% of the work and isn't losing his short-yardage/clock killing role here unless of course, he fumbles a lot more.
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Carson is averaging 18.9 carries per game this season. If he takes a hit, how does that result in him 'normalizing' at 17-20 carries per game?

There have been 5 instances when Penny got 9 or more carries in a game:

  • 2018 week 2 - Penny had 10 carries, Carson had 6
  • 2018 week 6 - Penny had 9 carries, Carson had 14
  • 2018 week 10 - Penny had 12 carries, Carson did not play
  • 2019 week 2 - Penny had 10 carries and Carson had 15
  • 2019 week 12 - Penny had 14 carries and Carson had 8
That doesn't seem to support your claim. To be fair, you could lower it to 8 carries, or 7, and find some instances where Carson had 17+ carries. But 7-8 is less than 9-12 (or more), so that isn't surprising.

Carson has 208 carries this season. Other SEA RBs have a total of 63 - 5.7 carries per game. Based on what we know today, it seems like that ratio - 77% of RB carries to Carson - is going to change, lowering Carson's ratio and increasing Penny's. I don't see Carson settling out at 17+ carries per game. :shrug:  

 
Just Win Baby said:
Carson is averaging 18.9 carries per game this season. If he takes a hit, how does that result in him 'normalizing' at 17-20 carries per game?

There have been 5 instances when Penny got 9 or more carries in a game:

  • 2018 week 2 - Penny had 10 carries, Carson had 6
  • 2018 week 6 - Penny had 9 carries, Carson had 14
  • 2018 week 10 - Penny had 12 carries, Carson did not play
  • 2019 week 2 - Penny had 10 carries and Carson had 15
  • 2019 week 12 - Penny had 14 carries and Carson had 8
That doesn't seem to support your claim. To be fair, you could lower it to 8 carries, or 7, and find some instances where Carson had 17+ carries. But 7-8 is less than 9-12 (or more), so that isn't surprising.

Carson has 208 carries this season. Other SEA RBs have a total of 63 - 5.7 carries per game. Based on what we know today, it seems like that ratio - 77% of RB carries to Carson - is going to change, lowering Carson's ratio and increasing Penny's. I don't see Carson settling out at 17+ carries per game. :shrug:  
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For one thing you aren't really taking into account the other RBs... For awhile Seattle was a 3 man backfield (insert C.J. Prosise, Mike Davis, J.D. McKissic, Tre Madden), and only recently has CJ Prosise been wholly phased out after losing a Week 6 fumble (one carry since). Remember, it was the departure of Mike Davis to Chicago that bumped up Penny's stock. Second, most of those increased carries happened... after Chris Carson fumbled the ball! That's to be expected knowing Pete Carroll's history, you put the ball on the ground you sit.

Again assuming positive game script and no fumble-itis, Carson is going to be the guy they want out there most of the time IF the backfield continues to be 2 guys, and Carson continues his effectiveness.

 
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The Frankman said:
For one thing you aren't really taking into account the other RBs... For awhile Seattle was a 3 man backfield (insert C.J. Prosise, Mike Davis, J.D. McKissic, Tre Madden), and only recently has CJ Prosise been wholly phased out after losing a Week 6 fumble (one carry since). Remember, it was the departure of Mike Davis to Chicago that bumped up Penny's stock. Second, most of those increased carries happened... after Chris Carson fumbled the ball! That's to be expected knowing Pete Carroll's history, you put the ball on the ground you sit.

Again assuming positive game script and no fumble-itis, Carson is going to be the guy they want out there most of the time IF the backfield continues to be 2 guys, and Carson continues his effectiveness.
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You posted: "it's already been shown that if Penny got 9-12 carries Carson could still get 17-20"

That is false; that has not been shown.

You posted: "if his workload normalizes at 17-20 carries instead of 24+"

He is averaging 18.9 carries per game for the season to date. His workload has never been 24+ carries per game. Has 6 career games with that many carries - 3 last season and 3 this season.

In a more general sense, your points may be valid, but you are posting specific numbers that are wrong. :shrug:  

You also seem to be generally representing two things:

  1. Nothing that has happened to date will affect Carson's workload going forward unless he keeps fumbling. So, for example, entering next week you expect no change in workload split despite Carson being responsible for 2 fumbles yesterday and getting just 8 carries compared to Penny's 14.
  2. Carson's workload will not be affected no matter how well Penny plays, as long as Carson doesn't keep fumbling.
I don't agree with either of those positions.

 
This looked like one of those typical situations where the defense was prepped for Carson's running style and then a different type of back with season-long fresh legs came in and looked good.  But the reality is we all know Penny can't take this job completely and be able to hold up.  Carson is built for this team's run style and , imo, the Seattle Seahawks can't have their most successful season without Carson.

I think the Seahawks need to be careful not to alienate him.  It does suck for ff owners though because it will take 3 weeks or so to sort out so all the Carson owners who really benefited from him this season may get short-changed.

 
need2know said:
I have Carson and penny.   I hope they decide on one over the other cause if they start using both thats not what we want
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And hope it's Penny!  I have him in 4 leagues haha and the one league I have Carson is the one I am in hot pursuit of the 1.01 in.

 
I am pulling from the only fair reference we have comparing Carson's workload going forward with 2 RBs factoring in his lead dog status (trust with the staff/Pete Carroll) and factoring in Penny playing and not encumbered by health issues. You get Weeks 8-10 of this year

Carson - https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/11667/chris-carson/game-log

Penny - https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/11678/rashaad-penny/game-log

Carson logged 20, 16, and 25 carries vs ATL, TB and SF, the latter two  notoriously hard to run against. The 16 was a game he fumbled twice, and lost one.

Penny logged  8, 4 and 2 carries against the same teams. Why only 4 carries vs. TB? Negative game script had Russell Wilson doing his best Mahomes impersonation, and while you think  "OK Penny can get use as the superior receiving back" he had one target for 0 yards. In comparison  Carson had three targets for 2/28. So in a game where Carson fumbled MULTIPLE TIMES, Penny still couldn't increase his snap count... and that's the important thing here. Week 12 had the closest disparity between the two all year at an 8% difference (54% Carson to 46% Penny)... and that was a week vs. an extremely tough run D geared for Carson where he fumbled twice. After the coaches specifically talked up Penny and waned to use him more.

You're free to disagree with my points, but you're also ignoring how this Seattle team and by extension Pete Carroll treats his WRs and RBs. You have to do a lot of work in multiple phases of the game to get into Carroll's circle of trust.  It's why after Penny fumbled earlier in the season he was banished to the Shadow Realm and why Carson's fumbles get a pep talk, a one game "confidence boost" demotion and right back the starting role. Penny needs to keep impressing (which has been hard for him) and Carson has to keep messing up in multiple areas for Penny to suddenly take over for Carson.

Just Win Baby said:
You also seem to be generally representing two things:

  1. Nothing that has happened to date will affect Carson's workload going forward unless he keeps fumbling. So, for example, entering next week you expect no change in workload split despite Carson being responsible for 2 fumbles yesterday and getting just 8 carries compared to Penny's 14.
  2. Carson's workload will not be affected no matter how well Penny plays, as long as Carson doesn't keep fumbling.
I don't agree with either of those positions.
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1. Not true. I said earlier even if it goes back to the expected 70%-30% split thought to occur at the start of the year, both are fantasy viable.

2. See point 1. Again, this isn't the first time Penny has flashed OR Carson has fumbled this year alone.

 
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The pass protection cannot be overlooked.  I constantly see Carson coming up to the right blitzer and delivering big hits.  I saw Penny miss several.  That may be a key reason why he's not been able to get more time.  Granted, he was the hot hand last week and had the big run.  Maybe he's in better shape and a light bulb went off? I don't know.  But everything I have seen up to this point tells me Carson is the better fit with Penny being the change of pace guy.  But he has to have his head right and has to stop fumbling.  If they would have lost yesterday he would have been really in the doghouse.

Counter to my argument is out of the top 15 players this year with most fumbles he is the only running back.  The rest are all quarterbacks save for Stefon Diggs.  So it's a problem that compared with other RBs is even more magnified...

 
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Judge Smails said:
The pass protection cannot be overlooked.  I constantly see Carson coming up to the right blitzer and delivering big hits.  I saw Penny miss several.
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Last year PFF gave Carson a pass block grade of 62.4 and gave Penny a pass block grade of 72.4.  Carson received a pass block grade of 44.9 in 2017 in a limited role.  I no longer subscribe to PFF so I'm not sure what their grades are this year.

 
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