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Bradley MacDougald, FS Sea (1 Viewer)

Arodin

Footballguy
McDougald proved to be a fantasy darling last year, thanks to opportunity and Tampa stat crew's absurdly generous idp scoring.  Seattle of course is the bottom of the barrel as far as idp scoring goes, so I expect a downturn.

What sort of opportunity is he looking at in Seattle though?  My gut says he'll also see a significant drop in workload and opportunity, to the point that I'm considering cutting bait.  Am I overreactng?

 
McDougald proved to be a fantasy darling last year, thanks to opportunity and Tampa stat crew's absurdly generous idp scoring.  Seattle of course is the bottom of the barrel as far as idp scoring goes, so I expect a downturn.

What sort of opportunity is he looking at in Seattle though?  My gut says he'll also see a significant drop in workload and opportunity, to the point that I'm considering cutting bait.  Am I overreactng?
I would see if anybody is willing to trade for him first and take whatever I could get.  If not, I have no problem cutting bait on him.  DB's are easy to find year to year and I would rather have the roster spot due to his terrible landing spot. 

 
 Seattle of course is the bottom of the barrel as far as idp scoring goes, so I expect a downturn.


No, you should expect a downturn because McDougald won't even be starter unless Chancellor & Earl Thomas are injured.

 
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McDougald proved to be a fantasy darling last year, thanks to opportunity and Tampa stat crew's absurdly generous idp scoring.  Seattle of course is the bottom of the barrel as far as idp scoring goes, so I expect a downturn.

What sort of opportunity is he looking at in Seattle though?  My gut says he'll also see a significant drop in workload and opportunity, to the point that I'm considering cutting bait.  Am I overreactng?
Not much unless there's an injury to one of their starters or Thomas actually does retire.  He's not a particularly special talent, he was just in a great situation last year and there are a dozen guys like that every year that come out of the woodwork that you'll find on waivers.  No reason to hold him at this point.

 
Yeah, was wondering if this was any sort of sign that one of the injuries might linger, or a retirement might be down the road.   Doesn't sound like anyone has heard anything in that vein.

 I guess If Thomas goes one season and hangs it up, McD is positioned to benefit.  But pretty good chance he can be cut and then added late to next season's "speculative adds for the offseason" list in that case...

 
Even so, he's a FS.  Very few of those are viable in the leagues I'm in.  Thomas really isn't.  He's probably DB30 on a regular basis.  I'm more active than most on the wire for DB's and frequently end up with 3-4 top 20 so a guy like that just doesn't carry a lot of value.

 
I've been reading the coffee leaves in Seattle and I'm wondering if McDougald might get an interesting role this season. I think they might be going to a base big nickel 4-2-5 cover 3 with the SS and Big Nickel up in the box defending the flats. Last season they used Jeremy Lane as a nickel corner slash nickel SAM, but they didn't seem ecstatic about his performance there, and with Snead going down with injury they are likely to move Lane outside to start the season. They signed McDougald, an in the box safety with cover skills who Schneider talked about as one of the highest rated defenders on their FA board, and drafted box safety / nickel corner Delano Hill in the 3rd(!), while letting their SAM go in FA.

It really makes all the sense in the world for them to move into a big nickel base, which could mean that they would be in nickel 85-90% of the time. They have fast and rangy LBs and the best centerfield safety in the league, with physical CBs on the outside and a deep and talented DL rotation. A big nickel base would allow them to have an 8 man front on every play and stay very aggressive on the ball with a lot of opportunity to disguise and throw blitz packages. There's been some talk about other teams "figuring out" the SEA defense so it seems like the perfect timing to shake things up a little.

They drafted a box safety in the 3rd so McDougald doesn't have a guaranteed grip on that job, but I think there's a pretty good chance that the veteran will get the first shot. As someone else eluded to SEA isn't typically the prime spot for IDP production, but...if he gets a close to everydown role with plenty of time in the box he should be very startable.

 
Not a bad concept, but not one I'll move on yet.  They also drafted Shaq Griffin before Hill, and he's more of a clone of Lane who played that nickel, or to play outside and leave Lane where they liked him last year.  It's definitely worth keeping an eye on though, because this is much more of a ground-and-pound division with LAR, SFO, and ARI all being teams that are going to run a lot more than the NFL average.  McDougald put up big numbers given the opportunity last year too.

 
I own McDougald and was very disappointed that TB replaced him and then he went to SEA. I'd like to remain optimistic but get the feeling the only way he is worth keeping is if an injury would affect one of SEA's Ss before FF cuts happen.  The scenario described above seems like a pretty long shot IMO.

 
I own McDougald and was very disappointed that TB replaced him and then he went to SEA. I'd like to remain optimistic but get the feeling the only way he is worth keeping is if an injury would affect one of SEA's Ss before FF cuts happen.  The scenario described above seems like a pretty long shot IMO.
I don't think it's much of a long shot at all that they change to a nickel base. Patriots are already playing a big nickel base and you have plenty of teams that are moving to schemes where they have third safety roles who play 500-600 snaps in the box - for some teams this role can be taken by players who are not designated as safeties, like Mathieu or Shaq Thompson, but it's a staple of most NFL defenses and you see more teams making moves in that direction. Killebrew in DET, Tartt in SF, Obi to OAK, Hyde to BUF, Pryor to CLE, Sorensen in KCC. I think it's only a question of time before we see more teams going with a big nickel base and only run out heavier formations in short yardage. It's the direction both the college and pro game has gone. In college you even have a lot of small nickel base and you see teams moving towards a dime base. It's all about stopping the passing game and defeating the run by numbers in the box and speed rather than bulky MIKE and SAM backers.

But even if teams don't go to a nickel base, those 50-60% of snaps in the box are so much more valuable for IDP than 'regular' safety snaps that you can easily have a productive IDP on your hands even if the player is only playing a part-time role. Ideally you want a cover 3 strong safety, but after those guys are off the board I'm more intrigued by a part time big nickel than what I am with a cover 2 "strong" safety who might play more snaps but is going to be away from the action half of the time.

And SEA have the perfect personnel to move to a big nickel base.

 
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Time to revisit the Seattle backfield.  If you read the necro part of the thread, you'll know I'm a long-time McDougald investor in deep dynasty leagues.

Anyone ought there have insight or educated guesses on how that backfield is going to shake out?  Sounding like Thomas might be dealt, Chancellor may or may not play again.  That was leave McDougald and new addition Mo Alexander filling both safety roles, or is there someone else to have on the radar? 

Where's the IDP value in that defensive backfield in general for the upcoming year?  I'm having trouble getting a read on any of it.

 
Kam Chancellor is super iffy to play next year, and Earl Thomas is looking to be dealt.  McDougald just signed a 3 year extension, so I think the odds are good that he will be one of the two starters next year, alongside Thomas or Delano Hill or (less likely I think), Tedric Thompson.

 

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