What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Why Does the Fantasy Community Love Corey Davis So Much? (1 Viewer)

FreeBaGeL

FreeBaGeL

Footballguy
Corey Davis a really interesting guy to me.  Most mocks, including those done by people plugged in to actual NFL sources, have Mike Williams being selected ahead of Davis in the NFL draft, often well ahead of him.  The NFL certainly seems to value Williams ahead of Davis, and maybe even with a fairly large gap between the two.  Yet Davis is far and away the consensus choice among fantasy players, with many considering him at worst a top 3 pick and at the same time being worried they're going to get "stuck" with Williams as low as 1.06.

Now we've seen this before with players like Will Fuller who have a non-fantasy friendly role in the NFL that makes them more valuable in the NFL than it does in fantasy, but that's not the case here.  Davis and Williams are similar style receivers, yet while the NFL heavily leans towards Williams, the fantasy community heavily leans towards Davis.

The even more perplexing part about this is the way Davis' fantasy stock has catapulted this offseason despite him doing absolutely nothing all offseason other than pick up an injury and miss drills/tests.  He's the same guy he was 6 weeks ago but after having only negative things happen, yet his value is much higher now.

I understand the worries around Williams with creating separation, but I'm not sure I understand Davis' rise.  It seems like one of those situations where the #2 guy, the "underrated" guy, becomes such a "cool pick" that he ends up almost being overrated (or as I call it, the Steve McNair effect).

I can't say that I'm immune to this.  I like Davis a lot better and I can't quite put my finger on why other than because everyone else does too.  So what has changed with Davis over the last 6 weeks that suddenly has made him such a fantasy darling compared to where he was 6 weeks ago even as he has only fallen in most NFL mock drafts over that same period?

 
this WR crop is POO.

First year I've basically taken myself off the board, w nearly no picks to speak of. Not a thing I want this year, really. Even RB wise, past 1-2 guys.

Only thing I wish I could do, is land OJ Howard

 
petekrum said:
You will.
Click to expand...
I'm not saying he's not good or anything like that, I just he's a bit overrated because of the high profile he got from being at Clemson. He's a big jump ball WR but some of his athletic measurables were disappointing. He's a good prospect but more of a late 1st, early 2nd guy IMO. 

 
As for the question @FreeBaGeL posed:

I think Davis has seen his stock slip the last 6 weeks. His big rise came after the college and NFL season ended. People saw his size, his insane stats (5200 and 52) and then they watched the tapes. He's in the MAC, but the tape is extremely dominant. He broke-out at a really young age. Harmon's statistical analysis of Corey was glowing (called him a consistent version of Sammy Watkins). He checks a lot of boxes, but there is concern now that either this ankle injury is more serious than they are letting on or there isn't really an injury, but Davis knows his vert and 40 are subpar so he's avoiding testing. IMO, if he had test and been at least average, he would be projected by NFL guys ahead of Williams. 

 
Ilov80s said:
As for the question @FreeBaGeL posed:

I think Davis has seen his stock slip the last 6 weeks. His big rise came after the college and NFL season ended. People saw his size, his insane stats (5200 and 52) and then they watched the tapes. He's in the MAC, but the tape is extremely dominant. He broke-out at a really young age. Harmon's statistical analysis of Corey was glowing (called him a consistent version of Sammy Watkins). He checks a lot of boxes, but there is concern now that either this ankle injury is more serious than they are letting on or there isn't really an injury, but Davis knows his vert and 40 are subpar so he's avoiding testing. IMO, if he had test and been at least average, he would be projected by NFL guys ahead of Williams. 
Click to expand...
I don't see how this is remotely possible, as he had surgery.  

 
SayWhat? said:
I don't see how this is remotely possible, as he had surgery.  
Click to expand...
I don't mean literally no injury. Just that he's milking it to avoid any drills. I guess the NFL medical evaluations would reveal the truth here. We just don't know it. 

 
Ilov80s said:
I don't understand what everyone sees in Mike Williams.
Click to expand...


Soulfly3 said:
this WR crop is POO.

First year I've basically taken myself off the board, w nearly no picks to speak of. Not a thing I want this year, really. Even RB wise, past 1-2 guys.

Only thing I wish I could do, is land OJ Howard
Click to expand...
The top receivers aren't close to previous years but the depth is decent.  You're missing out on the backs, easily 6 or more will have decent value.  Also the TE.  Totally agreed on Howard being the best player, was really hoping he'd fall a lot further than he will (he was my target with the only 1st I have,  1.14 but there's virtually zero chance of landing him there now. 

I liked Davis before he got hyped but not as much as the hype now. 

 
I watched him play vs WIS lined up against a guy who will make a living playing CB in the NFL.  He's got some game.  I believe.

 
When I watch his tape and how he moves with the ball in his hands he reminds me of T.O.  Would have been nice to see how he stacks up with others at the combine though.  

 
The dynasty community in general, and player values, are strongly influenced by the dynasty twitter community. The dynasty twitter community has a LOT of devy owners/writers in it who have pre-existing biases towards certain college players that they either already own, or have been hyping up for years. They're invested in the value of these players already and aren't coming at each class with a fresh slate and an open mind like many non-devy owners probably are. We saw the same thing happen with guys like Boyd and DGB where residual devy hype followed them and their rookie values were inflated as a result (imo), as they were seen as more talented due to their pre-existing name value and a loud, respected minory of true believers already in the dynasty community, personally invested in one way or another in their value.

I'm not saying Corey Davis is a bust, by the way. I'm just saying that people aren't digging as deep on him as they would if he came out of nowhere and didn't already have an entire segment of the dynasty community deeply invested in his success. We don't know what his athleticism looks like compared to his peers, we have questions about his level of competition, now he's recovering from a surgery--but you barely hear anyone being worried about this because he's been a sexy name and its been popular to be a Corey Davis believer for a while. Whereas the RB's, for instance, have been in the limelight and so universally hyped over a period of years that people have gotten to the nit-picking stage with them--its much more popular to doubt this RB class now. Davis is in this safe zone in the middle where he was a popular small school sleeper so people are just glad he seems to have "hit", but there hasn't been enough attention to cause weariness in the community and a thorough vetting. 

Just my opinion. He's not really benefiting from anything he did--he's benefiting from everyone else with a recognizable name getting nit-picked to death while he can't be, and the believers he already has from the devy community are already sold anyways. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Where are you finding that Williams is rated so highly above Davis? In most of the mocks I have seen they are pretty even with Davis going before Williams in quite a few.

 
I haven't really done much research yet, but Davis landed himself at my (relatively) local WMU due to character issues. Is that still a concern?

Obviously he put up amazing numbers, but again, that was against a MAC schedule. Is he really a Randy Moss type talent that can translate that to the NFL? Again, I haven't watched film, etc. yet, but those are my two concerns. What's he going to do when he gets $millions in his pocket, and the competition takes a huge step up? I feel like Mike Williams has a huge edge in both of those categories.

I will be doing some film watching in the coming months, leading up to my few rookie drafts, but curious how everyone is weighing those particular dynamics at this point...

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
I haven't really done much research yet, but Davis landed himself at my (relatively) local WMU due to character issues. Is that still a concern?

Obviously he put up amazing numbers, but again, that was against a MAC schedule. Is he really a Randy Moss type talent that can translate that to the NFL? Again, I haven't watched film, etc. yet, but those are my two concerns. What's he going to do when he gets $millions in his pocket, and the competition takes a huge step up? I feel like Mike Williams has a huge edge in both of those categories.

I will be doing some film watching in the coming months, leading up to my few rookie drafts, but curious how everyone is weighing those particular dynamics at this point...
Click to expand...
He doesn't have to be a Randy Moss type talent to be great coming from a small school. Look at Antonio Brown for example.

 
msudaisy26 said:
He doesn't have to be a Randy Moss type talent to be great coming from a small school. Look at Antonio Brown for example.
Click to expand...
Right. I'm not saying he has to be Randy Moss. I'm just saying there are far more players that put up great numbers at smaller schools, but don't take the next step.

 
I like Davis a LOT and for me, he's really the only WR I like in this class.  I think he's the best WR coming out in the last couple years and I've said as much in other threads.  I see a Demaryius Thomas/Terrell Owens hybrid when I watch him.  I like him better than Corey Coleman coming out last year.  Will be interesting to see where he ends up.

 
 In terms of mocks and ranking I'm not seeing what the OP indicated, which is Corey rising. The mocks and rankings by people I respect have been just the opposite, with him falling out of round one in some.

Personally I like both a lot but neither are so clean I feel like they get the can't miss label or anything.

On Corey Davis. He looks an awful lot to me like a much bigger Amari Cooper. Looks great on tape but great against who is my concern?  Did ok in his games against top level comp but for sure not dominant. Most impressed by his route running and YAC ability, biggest negatives are drops and questions about level of comp. We all missed so much potential good info on him with him missing Senior Bowl and workouts.

Mike Williams looks like a #1 NFL Wr, was productive against top level comp. Was not dominant against Bama or Ohio St but those teams have about 4 first round players in their secondaries just in this draft and on a big pressure packed stage he got his. Again not dominant but yes it comforts me when I see him making plays against comp he'll be playing in the NFL. Workout numbers were disappointing to me however. I knew he was not expected to run fast and he did fine with the 40 but not impressive in other drills. Most puzzling for a player who seems to make an inordinate amount of catches while in the air was such a low vertical.

I lean Davis over Williams right now because for PPR fantasy leagues I just think Davis has more potential for higher catch total, Wiliams seems to me have more potential for TD's. LIke both, concerns on both. Draft likely clears it up but if one of them goes to Bills and other to Eagles or Titans as an example it's going to be a pretty clear call for me.

After them things turn bleak in a hurry.  Seems like a ton of WR's who could be good but shocking shortage of the type's I'd want to use a first round rookie pick on, like maybe only 2-3 and that's actually less than last season horrible draft.

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
Right. I'm not saying he has to be Randy Moss. I'm just saying there are far more players that put up great numbers at smaller schools, but don't take the next step.
Click to expand...
When you watch the tape and look at his stats, you will see why some are so excited about him. We don't have athletic measurables and he didn't always play the best competition but the stats and the tape are really good.

 
I included Amari Cooper just because none of the guys from last years draft broke out. I didn't include the giant players like Evans or Benjamin. Feel free to add to the list.

Davis: HT: 6'3" WT: 209LBS. ARM LENGTH: 33" HANDS: 9 1/8" BMI: 26.1

Williams: HT: 6'4" WT: 218LBS. ARM LENGTH: 33 3/8" HANDS: 9 3/8" BMI: 26.5

Cooper: HT: 6'1" WT: 211LBS. ARM LENGTH: 31 1/2" HANDS: 10" BMI: 27.8

Marty Bryant: HT: 6'4" WT: 211LBS. ARM LENGTH: 32 5/8" HANDS: 9 1/2" BMI: 25.7

Dez: HT: 6'2" WT: 225LBS. ARM LENGTH: 34" HANDS: 9 3/4" BMI: 28.9

DT: HT: 6'3" WT: 224LBS. ARM LENGTH: 33" HANDS: 10 1/2" BMI: 28.0

Julio: HT: 6'3" WT: 220LBS. ARM LENGTH: 33 3/4" HANDS: 9 3/4" BMI: 27.5

The was mention of no nitpicking yet so it thought I would start it.  :D  

I'm worried about how "big" he actually is. We (myself included) think that he looks big on the field but his BMI is closer to Martavius Bryant than the big guys. He has the smallest hands on the list.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
menobrown said:
 In terms of mocks and ranking I'm not seeing what the OP indicated, which is Corey rising. The mocks and rankings by people I respect have been just the opposite, with him falling out of round one in some.
Click to expand...
Are you talking NFL mocks here, or fantasy mocks?  I'm assuming NFL mocks because he's nowhere close to falling out of the first round of fantasy draft mocks.

But yeah, that's my whole point.  His stock has only gone down in NFL terms.  He's dropped in NFL mocks, especially the ones from the guys who typically have good info on what the teams are thinking.  Meanwhile, even as his stock has dropped in the NFL sense, it has risen in the fantasy sense.  Six weeks ago he was considered the fantasy #2 WR.  Then it was the cool pick to like him more than Williams.  Now it's the consensus that he's the #1 fantasy WR and not just that, the general perception of him has gone up.  All while he's done nothing but get hurt and sit at home, and all while his NFL stock has gone down.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Are you talking NFL mocks here, or fantasy mocks?  I'm assuming NFL mocks because he's nowhere close to falling out of the first round of fantasy draft mocks.

But yeah, that's my whole point.  His stock has only gone down in NFL terms.  He's dropped in NFL mocks, especially the ones from the guys who typically have good info on what the teams are thinking.  Meanwhile, even as his stock has dropped in the NFL sense, it has risen in the fantasy sense.  Six weeks ago he was considered the fantasy #2 WR.  Then it was the cool pick to like him more than Williams.  Now it's the consensus that he's the #1 fantasy WR and not just that, the general perception of him has gone up.  All while he's done nothing but get hurt and sit at home, and all while his NFL stock has gone down.
Click to expand...
NFL stock might have dropped due to him not participating in the combine or the pro day. His fantasy stock rising/staying steady might have more to do with the disappointment with other prospects. 

 
Soulfly3 said:
this WR crop is POO.

First year I've basically taken myself off the board, w nearly no picks to speak of. Not a thing I want this year, really. Even RB wise, past 1-2 guys.

Only thing I wish I could do, is land OJ Howard
Click to expand...
Really?

Maybe I'm just drinking the Kool-Aid, but I am kind of excited about this WR class. To me people are looking for reasons to knock Mike Williams. The one nobody seems to be talking about is Curtis Samual, and if he goes the right offense with a creative mind I think he could have a much bigger impact than anticipated early in his career. John Ross is every bit as exciting as Will Fuller to me, and Will Fuller was the second WR off the board last year and more productive than I would have guessed he would be as a rookie. IMO guys like Zay Jones, Chris Godwin, Carlos Henderson, and Cooper Kupp could have an instant impact in the right offensive role . Dede Westbrook is a polarizing player but has a very, very high upside. Juju Smith-Schuster doesn't have the wow-upside but kind of reminds me of a more physical Tyler Boyd in that he's been a productive WR that people are forgetting because he doesn't have ideal athleticism. Some people think K.D. Cannon is comparable to Corey Coleman, the top overall WR in the draft last year. I'm not a huge Coleman fan but I'd be very interested in Cannon on day 3 of the draft instead of middle of the 1st round. Another day 3 guy that is interesting to me is Kenny Golladay who is 6-4 and ran a 4.50 in the 40, while being very productive the past two college seasons.

And those are just the guys I'll be tracking to see their landing spots in the draft. There are some guys that I'm not excited about but smarter people than I am have ranked very highly including ArDarius Stewart, Chad Hansen, Malachi Dupre, Noah Brown, and Iseah Ford. If they go to a bad situation they won't really be on my radar but I'll have to pay much closer attention if they fall into a good situation. I remember I didn't have much interest at all in Ty Montgomery before he was drafted a few years ago... then he got drafted by GB.

I will fully admit I just get excited for the NFL draft and maybe I'm giving a lot of these more credit than they deserve. I also see plenty of interesting RB's beyond the top 2 and plenty of talent at TE beyond Howard as well. 

 
menobrown said:
After them things turn bleak in a hurry.  Seems like a ton of WR's who could be good but shocking shortage of the type's I'd want to use a first round rookie pick on, like maybe only 2-3 and that's actually less than last season horrible draft.
Click to expand...
I dunno. I think there may be a lack of classic outside starting WR's but there is plenty of potential for the next Jamison Crowder types. The slot WR can have such a big impact in the NFL now, especially if they go to a team where there isn't a real TE threat. I also get geeked up for fools gold sometimes however, like last year I was excited to see where Keyarris Garrett would land. Still wish he would have signed to a PIT/SD type situation. I still haven't given up hope!

 
I agree that there is a perception gap between Williams and Davis amongst fantasy owners that is probably bigger than the reality. My take on the reasons:

1. I think Laquon Treadwell's awful rookie year has caused a little bit of backlash on Williams. Williams is bigger, faster and made more big plays in college. But I think people who were all in on Treadwell despite the 40-time last year are very weary about making the same mistake again on a productive guy without the measurables.

2. I think there's some segment of both the "tape" crowd and the "market share analytics" community that doesn't appreciate the difference in level of competition as fully as the NFL scouts do. Daniel Braverman was actually Western Michigan's leading receiver as a junior. Completely different body types, but the fact that Braverman couldn't even make the Bears 53-man roster at WR shows that MAC production needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

I also think you have to take the production numbers when these small schools play bigger schools with a grain of salt. You look at Gehrig Dieter who was at Bowling Green in 2015 and Bama in 2016. He put up 1000 yards and 10 TDs in the MAC. He had 7-133-1 against Tennessee in his lone game against the SEC in 2015. Then he grad transferred to Bama and was buried on the depth chart. He played Tennessee again in 2016 with Bama and put up a goose egg. 

3. When a guy is unable to workout, we all generally tend to assume the best about his numbers. I think if you asked most how fast Davis would have run at the combine, you'll get some responses that probably wouldn't have matched reality. 

I like Davis a little better, but I don't think there is a massive difference.

 
I like both a lot, but am leaning Davis.

I also havent really seen evidence of what is claimed in the OP of there being an obvious preference to MW. A lot of what is making me prefer Davis aside from his style of play, is that a lot of the mocks I see have MW going somewhere that is a bad situation or hes an obvious wr2. I see Davis mainly going to WR1 situations, or at least a better situation.

I don't like MW being mocked to places like Buf, which is the most popular spot hes being mocked to right now. I do like the possibility of him going to Tenn, or maybe a spot like Philly or AZ on a more long term plan. If he were to end up in say Det, Id have a hard time not moving him up my board

 
TampaBayTre on twitter clearly has a napoleon complex about Davis but he posted the "good" plays by him on the 27th. 

A lot of the twitter analysts seem more interested in trying to stand out so they can thump their chest later. Most of them don't like open debate that challenges their "scouting". Whether it's Davis vs williams or two other players.  

Remember when they all thought Juju Smith was the WR1 about 4 months ago?

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
TampaBayTre on twitter clearly has a napoleon complex about Davis but he posted the "good" plays by him on the 27th. 

A lot of the twitter analysts seem more interested in trying to stand out so they can thump their chest later. Most of them don't like open debate that challenges their "scouting". Whether it's Davis vs williams or two other players.  

Remember when they all thought Juju Smith was the WR1 about 4 months ago?
Click to expand...
Well to be fair, JuJu was so good in 2015. It would have been difficult to predict how big of a step back he would take. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Well to be fair, JuJu was so good in 2015. It would have been difficult to predict how big of a step back he would take. 
Click to expand...
Did Juju change a lot as a player? Why didn't the internet scouts pick up on his real issues sooner? Fair questions and why you have to take highlight films and stats with a grain of salt. 

Anyone in the mike vs Corey decision should take the guy they like best. Funny thing is landing spot will dictate a lot too. 

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Oj isnt even the best te...
Click to expand...
... for fantasy.  He's probably the best TE for an NFL team though.  Most well rounded, but he'll be blocking a lot more than Njoku or Engram.

First, saying that Davis and Williams are the same type of receiver isn't really true.  One gets into space with twitch moves and the other fights for the ball and overpowers backs.  That said, most people just regurgitate talking points that they saw on ESPN or NFL Network and haven't actually looked at game tape.  Boiling Mike Williams down to a jump ball receiver is silly.  He gets plenty of separation on tape, and then usually has to wait for the ball while the defender closes in.  He's better than Treadwell, and if he hadn't missed all of 2015 with a fluke injury, he would have much more hype about him than he already does.  

Davis has a ton of love going his way because people are starting to get into his game tape.  Most smaller school guys don't have a lot of focus until the offseason starts, so the more recent analysis has him higher than it used to.  He was very good against lesser teams, but also pretty good against solid teams.  I believe he did well against the big 10, something to the effect of 5 games, 450 yards, 4 TDs.  

Obviously we can't guarantee they'll translate well to the NFL, but depending on the NFL Draft, they could push the RBs for fantasy draft position if they land in better locations.

 
Williams vs Davis - film review with 2x All Pro WR Mike Quick 

Final Thoughts"My overall thoughts on Williams are that he's a big target," Quick started. "He can use some help with his route running. He catches the ball really well and doesn't seem to shy away from contact at all. He does some really nice things with his releases. He does a great job staying vertical even against a press corner in his face. 50/50 balls - he seems to win those more often than not. I like the way he slows down to take the ball at it's highest point which is a big thing. That's his bread and butter. He's a really impressive player."And Davis?

"Davis seems to be very polished," Quick said. "Good route running, he's got good suddenness to him. He's good with the ball in his hands making people miss. He's physical as a blocker. He looks like he's been well-coached and he's well-rounded as a receiver. Sure there are some drops there and Eagles fans may not be all too happy about that, but it's interesting comparing these two guys because they're both really, really talented."I didn't see the same kind of 50/50 ball opportunities for Davis that I saw for Williams but Williams wins on those as well as anyone I've seen this year. He knows how to time it to win those jump balls, and he's so good at beating up those corners at the line of scrimmage. On the other hand, Williams didn't have the route running that Davis has. His routes weren't as sharp, they were not as NFL ready. Davis' routes are NFL ready. He's been well-schooled. I think he's better with the ball in his hands than Williams is. I think he has some more suddenness to him and some more quickness to him."
Click to expand...

 
Bloom is on twitter now saying his eyes tell him Davis is the clear #1. That's fair and his opinion. Then he elaborates with lines like he hopes the NFL isn't tone deaf and he's gonna brag about his right he was if Davis falls to the 20s and sometimes this is very simple.  I respect blooms ability to analyze a fantasy situation but what in the hell is his background to evaluate college talent that makes him that sure of himself?   It's laughable whether he ends up right or wrong. 

 
tangfoot said:
This is my fear, as well.  I have no use for a guy who can only hope to be Ted Ginn, only gimpier.
Click to expand...
Yep.  We gotta decide if Ross is fuller/ginn or desean/cooks.  He does catch better than fuller in college but I admittedly have a bias against smaller receivers for no reason. 

 
Pwingles said:
I also havent really seen evidence of what is claimed in the OP of there being an obvious preference to MW.
Click to expand...
Here on this forum in the community rookie rankings Davis outvoted MW at a 3:1 ratio.

DLF rookie mock ADP has Corey Davis with an ADP of 1.01 and MW with an ADP of 1.06.

Startup dynasty draft ADP has Davis as WR18 and Williams WR 24.

And then there is just the general perception that is out there too.  Any thread talking about top 3 picks people are talking about Davis as an option, rarely ever Williams.  Any time people are talking about getting "stuck" with one of the top 6 they don't really want it's pretty much always Williams.  I've not once seen someone say that about Davis.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Here on this forum in the community rookie rankings Davis outvoted MW at a 3:1 ratio.

DLF rookie mock ADP has Corey Davis with an ADP of 1.01 and MW with an ADP of 1.06.

Startup dynasty draft ADP has Davis as WR18 and Williams WR 24.

And then there is just the general perception that is out there too.  Any thread talking about top 3 picks people are talking about Davis as an option, rarely ever Williams.  Any time people are talking about getting "stuck" with one of the top 6 they don't really want it's pretty much always Williams.  I've not once seen someone say that about Davis.
Click to expand...
I think what he was saying is he doesn't see the NFL mocks showing a heavy preference for Williams.

 
Dan Hindery said:
I agree that there is a perception gap between Williams and Davis amongst fantasy owners that is probably bigger than the reality. My take on the reasons:

1. I think Laquon Treadwell's awful rookie year has caused a little bit of backlash on Williams. Williams is bigger, faster and made more big plays in college. But I think people who were all in on Treadwell despite the 40-time last year are very weary about making the same mistake again on a productive guy without the measurables.

2. I think there's some segment of both the "tape" crowd and the "market share analytics" community that doesn't appreciate the difference in level of competition as fully as the NFL scouts do. Daniel Braverman was actually Western Michigan's leading receiver as a junior. Completely different body types, but the fact that Braverman couldn't even make the Bears 53-man roster at WR shows that MAC production needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

I also think you have to take the production numbers when these small schools play bigger schools with a grain of salt. You look at Gehrig Dieter who was at Bowling Green in 2015 and Bama in 2016. He put up 1000 yards and 10 TDs in the MAC. He had 7-133-1 against Tennessee in his lone game against the SEC in 2015. Then he grad transferred to Bama and was buried on the depth chart. He played Tennessee again in 2016 with Bama and put up a goose egg. 

3. When a guy is unable to workout, we all generally tend to assume the best about his numbers. I think if you asked most how fast Davis would have run at the combine, you'll get some responses that probably wouldn't have matched reality. 

I like Davis a little better, but I don't think there is a massive difference.
Click to expand...
I don't know if I'd use that against Braverman.  I'm not sure the Bears are the best example of evaluating their starting talent.  Don't forget that they didn't think Howard was good enough to start based on his practice and preseason games.  If Langford didn't get hurt they never would have known how good Howard was.  I still believe Braverman has enough talent to be on the field.

 
I know just about myself, and I'll be taking Corey Davis at 1.01 in multiple leagues with Mike Williams not even a thought until 1.05.  I'm simply a fan of Davis and not a fan of Williams.  As others have mentioned I'm weary about the Treadwell thing and how those types of receivers tend to struggle coming into the league, the ones without quickness and suddenness.  The most recent one I can think of off the top of my head is Keenan Allen whose had success and I remember not liking him as much as others that year as well.  Something about that profile I tend to shy away from.  It's not just the lack of speed, it's the lack of explosion and quickness and when a bigger WR doesn't have that I see that as an issue.  When a bigger WR does have that, I get giddy because they fall in line with the Calvin Johnson's and Julio Jones' of the world.  

As for the OP's questions about why Davis hasn't fallen, I really don't know the answer.  I think it's due to the fact that he looks very good on tape and an all around type of player with the potential to be dominant in more than 1 facet of the game.  No workout numbers or anything makes people rely even more on the tape, and his is very impressive.  He's my favorite WR in the last 3 years since Mike Evans.  

That being said if NFL evaluators are concerned with Davis, I think we can all agree that will likely be represented by his draft position.  If he slips to the 20's or later then a flag in my head goes up that maybe I'm overvaluing him.  There's a lot to like about the guy, but after all most of us don't do this for a living and I'll trust the NFL and it's evaluation.  

 
Dan Hindery said:
I agree that there is a perception gap between Williams and Davis amongst fantasy owners that is probably bigger than the reality. My take on the reasons:

1. I think Laquon Treadwell's awful rookie year has caused a little bit of backlash on Williams. Williams is bigger, faster and made more big plays in college. But I think people who were all in on Treadwell despite the 40-time last year are very weary about making the same mistake again on a productive guy without the measurables.

2. I think there's some segment of both the "tape" crowd and the "market share analytics" community that doesn't appreciate the difference in level of competition as fully as the NFL scouts do. Daniel Braverman was actually Western Michigan's leading receiver as a junior. Completely different body types, but the fact that Braverman couldn't even make the Bears 53-man roster at WR shows that MAC production needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

I also think you have to take the production numbers when these small schools play bigger schools with a grain of salt. You look at Gehrig Dieter who was at Bowling Green in 2015 and Bama in 2016. He put up 1000 yards and 10 TDs in the MAC. He had 7-133-1 against Tennessee in his lone game against the SEC in 2015. Then he grad transferred to Bama and was buried on the depth chart. He played Tennessee again in 2016 with Bama and put up a goose egg. 

3. When a guy is unable to workout, we all generally tend to assume the best about his numbers. I think if you asked most how fast Davis would have run at the combine, you'll get some responses that probably wouldn't have matched reality. 

I like Davis a little better, but I don't think there is a massive difference.
Click to expand...
I think that's an unfair analysis. You cherry picked 2 negative examples. Why not talk about how well Randy Moss, Antonio Brown and Greg Jennings translated to the NFL? What about the big conference WRs that have been busts despite looking great in top conferences?  Treadwell, Kevin White, Justin Hunter, Robert Woods, Arrellious Benn, etc. 

Gehrig never produced at the level Davis did. Gehrig's best season was 500 yards and 9 TDs less than Davis. When Braverman was 22 and leading Western in catches, Davis was 20 and was leading Western in yards and TDs. Go back a year earlier. Braverman posted 88/1000/6. A 19 year old Corey Davis went for 78/1400/15. I think it's very clear that Daniel Braverman and Gehrig Dieter have no business being brought up when breaking down Corey Davis. 

 
tangfoot said:
This is my fear, as well.  I have no use for a guy who can only hope to be Ted Ginn, only gimpier.
Click to expand...
He catches the ball much better than Ginn or Fuller so I think he's got a shot to be more of a Desean Jackson/Mike Wallace player. The injuries are a serious concern though.

 
Ilov80s said:
I think that's an unfair analysis. You cherry picked 2 negative examples. Why not talk about how well Randy Moss, Antonio Brown and Greg Jennings translated to the NFL? What about the big conference WRs that have been busts despite looking great in top conferences?  Treadwell, Kevin White, Justin Hunter, Robert Woods, Arrellious Benn, etc. 

Gehrig never produced at the level Davis did. Gehrig's best season was 500 yards and 9 TDs less than Davis. When Braverman was 22 and leading Western in catches, Davis was 20 and was leading Western in yards and TDs. Go back a year earlier. Braverman posted 88/1000/6. A 19 year old Corey Davis went for 78/1400/15. I think it's very clear that Daniel Braverman and Gehrig Dieter have no business being brought up when breaking down Corey Davis. 
Click to expand...
He didn't say small school receivers couldn't succeed. He compared recent examples from exact same team and system.  Don't think it was meant to say braverman busted so Davis will too either. 

 
For me it is pretty simple. Davis gets open a lot. Williams doesn't.

Davis plays like a smaller WR but he isn't a smaller WR.

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
He didn't say small school receivers couldn't succeed. He compared recent examples from exact same team and system.  Don't think it was meant to say braverman busted so Davis will too either. 
Click to expand...
Well he's saying we should be skeptical of the production and the film Corey Davis has because he plays in a MAC school. If there's no combine and all we have are stats/tape,  he's saying that we shouldn't buy into Corey Davis.

 
The level of competition argument is always one that is hard to account for. I don't watch enough college football to have a good sense of how to adjust for strength of schedule and quality of competition.

That said Mike Williams had the advantages of his supporting cast, most importantly his QB Watson who I think is the best QB of the 2017 draft class. That should mean something shouldn't it?

Who was throwing to Corey Davis again?

 
Biabreakable said:
The level of competition argument is always one that is hard to account for. I don't watch enough college football to have a good sense of how to adjust for strength of schedule and quality of competition.

That said Mike Williams had the advantages of his supporting cast, most importantly his QB Watson who I think is the best QB of the 2017 draft class. That should mean something shouldn't it?

Who was throwing to Corey Davis again?
Click to expand...
Raw stats are definitely difficult because of the variety of offenses, competition, etc. You have a guy like OJ Howard and his numbers don't seem to reflect a 1st round prospect. The you have Cooper Kupp who has Randy Moss video games for four consecutive years. That's why I think the combine and film are also really important in trying to evaluate guys. 

 
Well we can look at the percentage of yards generated for their team. 

In this case Clemson threw for 5009 yards in 2016 Mike Williams had 1361 yards receiving, no rushing stats.

He had 27% of Clemsons receiving yards.

Western Michigan threw for 3533 yards in 2016 Corey Davis had 1500 yards receiving, one rush zero yards.

He had 42% of Western Michigans receiving yards.

 
Biabreakable said:
Well we can look at the percentage of yards generated for their team. 

In this case Clemson threw for 5009 yards in 2016 Mike Williams had 1361 yards receiving, no rushing stats.

He had 27% of Clemsons receiving yards.

Western Michigan threw for 3533 yards in 2016 Corey Davis had 1500 yards receiving, one rush zero yards.

He had 42% of Western Michigans receiving yards.
Click to expand...
Matt Kelly at playerprofiler.com uses that stat (calls it dominator rating). Corey Davis share is in the 96th percentile, Mike Williams is 39th percentile. 

 
Biabreakable said:
The level of competition argument is always one that is hard to account for. I don't watch enough college football to have a good sense of how to adjust for strength of schedule and quality of competition.

That said Mike Williams had the advantages of his supporting cast, most importantly his QB Watson who I think is the best QB of the 2017 draft class. That should mean something shouldn't it?

Who was throwing to Corey Davis again?
Click to expand...
Well not for nothing, but WMU's QB Zach Terrell was a 4-year starter who is rated the #21 QB prospect out of 159 QBs this year and is a projected 4th-5th round pick in the NFL draft.

So what's more of an advantage, a 1st round QB talent playing against quite a few 1st round DB talents or a 4th round QB talent playing against a bunch of D2 scrubs that aren't even going to enter the draft?  I think you could pretty easily make the argument that the gap between defense and QB is larger with a D2 defense next to an NFL backup QB than elite D1 defenses next to an NFL starting QB.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

JohnnyU
Is the 2024 RB Class really that bad?
2 3
Replies
113
Views
4K
BigTex
BigTex
T
Travdogg's positional rankings from week 14 onward (last update)
Replies
24
Views
1K
N Zone
N Zone
T
Travdogg's pre-combine mock draft
2
Replies
52
Views
2K
(HULK)
(HULK)

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top