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TE Evan Engram, JAX (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
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Deamon
Footballguy
Ya they've actually got some firepower this year. Eli can be capable of it. Maybe (doubt it but maybe) that silly 'benching' at the end of last year, the pretty much playing for another shot to start, and feeling like he dodged the bullet of the Giants drafting a QB so high, will all motivate him and give him a good year. Wouldn't mind him as a flier fantasy backup.
Very true, but that doesn't change the fact that as of right now he's not actually the slot WR as you said. I think he's very good in the slot and Thielen did well in the slot for Shurmur so I wouldn't mind seeing him slide back there, though.
I'm not saying they do. I was just asking the question.
Rivers has always been way better than Eli. I think he'll last longer.
I absolutely do realize what a dumpster fire the Giants were last year. Didn't mean to downplay that. And Engram was sometimes the only weapon left. Shepard played in 11 games and had 3 games over 130 yards.
I'm not trying to disparage Engram. People talking about him being #1 overall was just begging for a reality check, though. They're acting like last year was something special. Like you said, rookie TEs don't usually do very well, but on the flip side, situation rarely calls for them to get 115 targets. I don't think he did anything special with those targets. I would be pretty surprised if Howard or Njoku did significantly less than what Engram did if they were in his exact situation. The fact that Howard had just as many TDs and 60% the yards of Engram on 34% of the targets should tell us something. The Bucs weren't nearly the dumpster fire the Giants were, but they were quite a mess themselves.
Eh it’s the age old argument- is it better to see a billion targets with all the defensive attention or less targets with more solo coverage? Engram surely would have been more efficient ala Howard if he saw less defensive attention. As for Njoku or Howard doing what Engram did in his situation, sure they could have. But Engram actually did. That has to hold some value over a hypothetical. For the record I don’t think Njoku is as polished a receiver at this point so I very much doubt he would have. Howard may have been capable but again I don’t see him as capable at this moment of splitting out wide like a wr and running the routes Engram did. So who knows. Just my opinion of course.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Eli has always been an easy target but this just isn't true. Both have their flaws and both have their strengths.
59.8% completion / 51,682 passing yards / 339 TDs / 228 Ints.
64.2% completion / 50,348 passing yards / 342 TDs / 166 Ints.
Which one of those careers is way better? And that's leaving off playoff and Super Bowl appearances which heavily favors one of them. Rivers is probably the better QB overall (and he was arguably surrounded by better offensive talent during his career) but not way better by any definition of the word - and I'd expect them both to age the same (not sure what we could possibly base that off of though).
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
As of right now? Because he's lining up outside in practice? The Giants move him around and if you think his role is defined solely by what you saw in OTAs, you may be wrong.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Not sure which stats are for who but I’ll take the 2nd guy who has more TDs and way less ints, not to mention a much better completion %.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The 3 more TDs and the slightly better completion % - does that make Rivers way better? Eli's biggest flaw is making some poor decisions and the interceptions, I agree are a big deal.
I'd rate them fairly even as far as their NFL careers and skillsets are concerned. If we want to look at "intangibles" which I know is tricky and a grey area Eli has performed better on the bigger stage and in pressure situations where Rivers has been an underachiever as far as team success.
Anyway - this is off track. the discussion started because Eli's age was brought up as a negative for Engram but Rivers' age was ignored for Hunter Henry. It's a stretch to claim one will age better than the other - I don't know how that's quantifiable.
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Did what? You say it like 115-64/722/6 is special. It's special for a rookie, but 115 targets also qualifies as special volume for a rookie. My point was that with that kind of volume, it would be surprising if any decently talented TE did significantly less than that. And again, I'm not trying to make light of the fact that for a few games he was the only notable receiver on the field (AND the offense was putrid), but let's not act like he was the only guy out there for 16 games.
With Njoku being 2 years younger than Engram, you are probably right that he's not as polished. I think that goes with the territory of being a very young rookie. Due to his age, I don't think we should ding him for that. Going into year 2 he should be improved.
Is this a real question?
Rivers pretty much has the same yards and TDs (with 73% of the INTs) on only 88% of the passing attempts. Rivers is better than Eli and it isn't even close. One could almost say that 88 targets from Rivers = 100 targets from Eli. I don't think that, but it's worth noting since you stated that he'll be the slot WR like it was fact. The fact is that he's playing outside as of right now. Like I said, personally I hope they move him back to the slot. I'm hoping this outside thing is just something they are toying with.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Why the nevermind? Because we're off topic or because I totally missed a point? I was just saying historically, 100 Eli targets = 698/4.58 (yds/TD) and 88 Rivers targets = 682/4.64.
But really I think you are making light of the drastic difference in completion percentage and interceptions, not to mention things like adjusted yards per attempt (6.5 vs. 7.7). That's why I was jokingly asking if it was a real question (did not mean to offend). You were comparing career totals but Eli has started 22 more games than Rivers (11.5% more) and thrown 904 more passes (13.9%). Didn't seem like a fair comp.
Chaka
Footballguy
I like Engram a lot and think it was very impressive the way he rose to the occasion last season as a rookie.
However I am not sure it is realistic to expect another 115 targets this season.
A new coaching staff was absolutely imperative but it brings a learning curve. Same for the offensive line, it's more talented but they are all in a new system and need to learn to work together.
But most important for Engram's opportunities is the return of ODB and addition of Barkley (Shepard didn't go anywhere either).
It's difficult to look at Shurmer's history and draw too many conclusions about TE usage and passing game shares overall. However I think it's fair to say that ODB and Barkley are going to be the primary options leaving Engram and Shepard, primarily, to split the remaining opportunities from a QB with historically mediocre accuracy.
However I am not sure it is realistic to expect another 115 targets this season.
A new coaching staff was absolutely imperative but it brings a learning curve. Same for the offensive line, it's more talented but they are all in a new system and need to learn to work together.
But most important for Engram's opportunities is the return of ODB and addition of Barkley (Shepard didn't go anywhere either).
It's difficult to look at Shurmer's history and draw too many conclusions about TE usage and passing game shares overall. However I think it's fair to say that ODB and Barkley are going to be the primary options leaving Engram and Shepard, primarily, to split the remaining opportunities from a QB with historically mediocre accuracy.
Good discussion here and I agree with most of your points. I’ll reiterate mine which is that although Njoku, Howard, Henry etc may have been able to do what Engram did on that number of targets, we don’t know if they would have. We know that Engram did. We don’t have to approximate. Look at it like this: you have Ertz far and away your dynasty 1. Perfectly reasonable stance. Why is that? (Future Qb play is obviously a big factor but setting that aside for this discussion). At the age of 25 Ertz went 75/853/2 on 112 targets. Well Engram just got close to that as a 23 year old rookie. Less catches, yards and worse catch%, but more tds and the same ypr. It would be reasonable to approximate Engram improving to Ertz level numbers in the next couple years. Probably more reasonable or at worst as reasonable as speculating on what other rookies would have done in Engram’s situation. Bottom line is projecting and speculating has value but actually doing it, especially at a young age has value and often times more so.
I don’t think targets are as scarce as you think. Eli has averaged about 590 pass attempts per year the last 5 years. Odell will soak up 170 of those, leaving 420 for the rest. How many do we think Saquon gets as a rookie? Personally I’d give him about 400 but that’s not going to happen. Maybe he gets 100? That still leaves 320 to get sorted out with Engram and Shepard poised to get the most. You can get them each 115 and still have 90 left over for the backup TE, wr3 and wr4 types. Maybe Eli will even Mariota a pass or 2 to himself!
edited to fix some bad math
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Chaka
Footballguy
I think we know that what Eli did last season really has no bearing in Pat Shurmer's offense.
Shurmer's last five offenses (including the split season with Norvbert) have averaged 573 pass attempts (with a range of 508-621). The high water mark for his #2 target was 112 targets (twice). If Engram is the clear #2 then maybe it can happen. I am a little more conservative in that regard, YMMV.
So that would be 1 less pass attempt per game then. It appears you are referring to Ertz as one of the #2s, who got 112 targets in 15 games and Diggs who got 112 in 13 games a pace of 138 in 16 games for Diggs and 119 for Ertz. Also you don’t mention that the year Diggs got 112 Rudolph got 130 only a few of which can be attributed to Diggs missing 3 games. If anything this shows Shurmur has no issue sending targets to a talented TE.
Side bar and SUPER SMALL SAMPLE ALERT- In the 3 games Engram played with a healthy Odell, Marshall, and Shepard he went 15/156/1 on 25 targets. A pace of 80/832/5.3 on 133 targets.
All that being said I could see Engram’s targets taking a slight dip due to other options on the offense but his efficiency should take a jump up as well as he sees less defensive attentiom. Something like 110/70/850/8
Chaka
Footballguy
I never said had a problem targeting TEs I just didn't want to list five years of #1 & #2 target stats. The numbers are indicative of there being a certain amount of attrition that should be accounted. Where that attrition comes from is anyone's guess but it leads to those end of season totals. Just hard numbers, nothing more.Cobbler1 said:
More subjectively Norvin was the OC for the first eight games of the 2016 season, Thielen was still an uncertain commodity whose role was only starting to grow and Diggs missed two of the final eight games that season (and it looks like Thielen left the Colts game early). I think 132 targets for Rudolph in 2016 should be viewed with a very cautious eye.
My opinion is Shurmer has never had a WR quite like ODB and he will be on pace for significantly more targets than any WR in a Shurmer offense (looks like that was Thielen with 145 last year). So I think a pace of 170 is possible as well. I also think the Giants will try to run the ball a lot more this year (they only ran 394 times last season, while Minnesota ran 501 times) and throw more to their RBs this season (the Giants had 76, I think, last year and the Vikings had something like 109 but I didn't check my math).
I don't think they will throw close to 608 times this season either, probably more than the 527 Minnesota had in 2017 but my guess would be somewhere closer to 570 (closer to two fewer attempts/game not one). I also think Manning will continue to have average, at best, accuracy and complete maybe 63% of his passes (his career high water mark is 63.1%) and I wouldn't be shocked if it was closer to 60-61%. I am highly doubtful that Manning will, at this point in his career, morph into a 67% passer.
To my very unskilled eyes Engram has the look of a guy who could be more than the real deal and become a target sponge, particularly early as the team is figuring out the offense. But I also think Shepard is a solid complementary WR who should have a lot of open looks (whether Manning looks to him is another story). I am just not sure we can expect more opportunities for Engram than we saw last year, maybe he will have increased efficiency but that is just so difficult to gauge.
Well, Huntery Henry has a total of 115 targets through his age 22 and 23 seasons for 81/1057/12. Obviously he wasn't the 1st or 2nd focus of the defense, it was low volume, and I think it's been established in this thread that a Rivers target is more valuable than an Eli target, but the point remains that 64/722/6 isn't special for 115 targets. It is decidedly mediocre for that volume*. Again, the situation makes that quite understandable but the level of optimism (ranking Engram TE1) based on that mediocre stat line for 115 targets just seems out of line. I don't think that stat line should imply he's going to be special or that he's not. It's just an understandably inefficient, volume assisted season total. It's obviously better than flopping under the target load, but given the expectations for him, I'd say he merely shot par. So no reason for him to skyrocket up the dynasty ranks.Cobbler1 said:
I'm not trying to disparage Engram, just stating that my view on last year's top rookies (Engram, Njoku, Howard) didn't change a ton after their rookie season. I still view them all very similarly.
*In the past 10 years, only one player has had at least 110 targets and 722 yards or less... Brandon Pettigrew had 722 yards on 111 targets in 2010. If we bump it down to a 100 target cutoff we get a few better names. Olsen at 24 had 108 targets for 60/612/8. That was from Cutler who I think is a much better comp for Eli than Rivers. But still the vast majority of TEs that got ~115 targets did much better than 64/722/6.
I’d guess that the vast majority of TEs who had much better seasons either weren’t rookies or were in much better situations. I think you’re being a little harsh on a really good and rare rookie season albeit with really good and rare rookie volume in a situation not exactly set up for a rookie te or any te really to be overly efficient. I see your point though and think it’s a fair one even though I don’t agree with it 100%. And to clarify I’m not one of the guys putting Engram TE1 but I do have him ahead of the other TEs from last years class.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
great analysis in here on both sides of the coin..I'm in the camp that says Engram will at least hold server if not better his numbers from last year. Barkley can only help not hurt.and we all know if you give Eli some sort of half-decent o-line he can/will dominate..and their schedule is easy..
Rivers v. Eli - I'll take 2 SB MVPs ( not one but TWO!) , two of the best post season runs in NFL history with huge wins on the road - how many teams have beaten the Packers in GB in the championship game - against Favre no less??
Rivers is 4-5 in the postseason, 60.3% passing, 11td/9 int
eli is 8-4, 60.5%, 18/9.
2 SB MVPs, 2 SB wins.
check this analysis by Nate Silver, which rates Eli Manning as the most clutch postseason QB of all time
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-clutch-postseason-quarterback-of-all-time-is-eli-manning/
gotta give the guy credit he wasnt afraid to follow his dad to play for Ole Miss, Peyton didnt even do that..then he went to NYC to play for the Giants - probably the single hardest place to play on earth for ANY pro athlete, and he ate it up.
I like Rivers, he's tough, he's a very good QB..I hope he wins a SB ! but so far, he's is in with the Warren Moon 'stat compiler' crowd.hall of famer for sure, just not on Eli's level.
Rivers v. Eli - I'll take 2 SB MVPs ( not one but TWO!) , two of the best post season runs in NFL history with huge wins on the road - how many teams have beaten the Packers in GB in the championship game - against Favre no less??
Rivers is 4-5 in the postseason, 60.3% passing, 11td/9 int
eli is 8-4, 60.5%, 18/9.
2 SB MVPs, 2 SB wins.
check this analysis by Nate Silver, which rates Eli Manning as the most clutch postseason QB of all time
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-clutch-postseason-quarterback-of-all-time-is-eli-manning/
gotta give the guy credit he wasnt afraid to follow his dad to play for Ole Miss, Peyton didnt even do that..then he went to NYC to play for the Giants - probably the single hardest place to play on earth for ANY pro athlete, and he ate it up.
I like Rivers, he's tough, he's a very good QB..I hope he wins a SB ! but so far, he's is in with the Warren Moon 'stat compiler' crowd.hall of famer for sure, just not on Eli's level.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
wondering why and how this turned into a rivers vs eli manning debate. what does rivers have to do with engram...
Lots of good reading in this thread. I have to agree with Chaka so far. I'm not sold in Shepard vulturing his looks however. I'm excited to see if Engram can be used similarly to Rudolph. maybe not 120 targets, but hopefully flirting with 100.
Chaka
Footballguy
Favre is 1-1 in NFC championship games in Green Bay.
He beat the 2nd year expansion Carolina Panthers in 1996 and lost to Eli's Giants in 2007.
Overall he was 8-3 in home playoff games with Green Bay.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Soooooo Engram has great college production which was better than both Njoku and Howard. He did so in a fairly good conference. He went to the Combine and blew the socks off with his performance. He makes it to the NFL where he admits he wasn’t comfortable and performed better than any rookie TE in recent memory. He now feels comfortable and things have slowed down for him which is what you would expect from any player after their rookie season. Yet people are still trying find reasons to put him down or pass on him......that’s incredible to me. The guy has excelled and performed at every single event, at every level.......not sure what else he can do!?!?!? Lol
Tex
Tex
Chaka
Footballguy
I'm not sure who is putting him down but it's possible for him to improve as an NFL player and still put up lesser statistics than last season.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
one of the better criticisms of Engram (and its a correct one) is that his efficiency was down but volume was high, resulting in a good fantasy finish
I think what Tex was getting at is that perhaps his year of experience, feeling more comfortable, and the game slowing down can result in a higher efficiency.
even if his targets do drop, and it's reasonable to say they may, I think he can make more out of the ones he does get an be an even better fantasy te.
my personal opinion is that the addition of Barkley, seasoning of Shepard, and emergence of Engram hurts OBJ more than it does Engram. not saying obj is going to be trash, but perhaps just relied less on. it's one reason I traded him away, and I'm not afraid to admit to my bias in saying this. However, if I didn't believe it I wouldn't have put my money where my mouth was and traded him away (to land engram as part of the deal might I add).
I think most people have reasonable expectations for Engram, and there's no doubting the potential of course
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Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
What else did you get with Engram?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Cooper, Engram, 1.2 (Guice), 1.6 (traded down to get Sutton and Hines), 2.7 (Rosen)
I gave up obj, Watkins, and Gio
I had 1.1 also. orphan team, looking to rebuild it, holes bad at te and rb.
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voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Not drop the ball as much as he catches it?
He's really a wr not a te at all. He’s a big slot player like Jordan Mathews (though a way better athlete). Of course he’s listed as a te so it’s great for fantasy purposes, but it inflates his numbers. They had almost nothing last year. No rb, odb hurt, Shepherd banged up and the rest of the wrs were practice squad players. So 700 yards for a rookie wr with no competition isn’t hof material. I’m holding in one league but I’m far from sold on him. This season will show if he’s for real or not.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
What can be said for Howard, Brate just signed an extension so what does that say about Howard? Who only had one good college game....
Tex
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
He was a rookie TE who ran a 4.4 forty. He ran faster than WRs, RBs and TEs. Teams knew he was the only weapon and he still produced as a rookie TE. A lot was put on his shoulders.
Tex
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Every defense knew the rookie was the only weapon they had......says a lot to me.
Tex
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
6 yards a target, and the offense stank with him as the focal point. There’s definitely huge upside but this idea that he’s the top te in dynasty is surprising to me.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
This is exactly my point. Thanks Dan! The Njoku and Howard are getting a pass based on their “upside” or “ceiling” the funny because they never produced in college yet Engram did and he runs like a gazelle. At the Combine didn’t he run faster than most of the DBs too?
As far as Barkley goes, last year there was 101 passes thrown to Shane and Wayne combined I don’t see Barkley getting more than that. OBJ avg 10.3 targets a game so he’ll get his share. In 2016 Tye was the leading TE he got 70 targets and Cruz who was 3rd in targets got 74. The addition of Cody and Roger is just insurance in case something happens to OBJ they won’t be much of a factor. As for as Shepard is concerned he’ll be what he’s always been.
Tex
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Except he has at least 28 pounds on Jordan Matthews... but yeah... basically twins...
Jared Cook as 8 pounds and 2" on him
Njoku has 1 inch and 6 pounds... and he's the hot name this off season
Engram is built more like a pass catching TE, yes, but to say he's the same as a 212 pound slot receiver is a bit of a reach
Edit:
In fact, if you want to compare BMIs...
Gronkowski: 30.6
Kelce: 30.0
Ertz: 29.1
Olsen: 30.2
Graham: 30.0
Engram: 30.0
Engram is built exactly the same as any of the elite TEs in the game
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I been reading studies that have been tracking QB college production. The finding is that college production translates to NFL production in top players. One of the things that keeps popping in my mind is that Mayfield only threw the ball 10% of the time to his TEs in college........if that does translate, that’s not something I want if I owned Njoku. That’s just food for thought. At least something worth considering.
Tex
Interseptopus
Footballguy
That seems very reasonable. I think many people automatically just assume the TE is going to be that "security blanket" without looking at the rookie/inexperienced QBs history for where he throws the ball.
It's one wildcard that could make or break Engram's production... who are they going to find at QB after Eli?
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
That’s true, that also my concern with Kelce. Does he have enough skins on the wall to influence the young QB.
That narrative that young QBs use TEs as a security blanket has been shown to be false. I agree 100%!
I’m hoping we can get 2-3 more years out of Eli.
Tex
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
And is that a bad thing!?!?
You said he was the built same as Jordan Matthews...
The only thing that's identical to Matthews is his height. Engram is built exactly the same as every other TE in the league... he may not be as tall but for his height his weight ratio is equally as low.
If you want to say he's a pass catching TE more than he is a blocking TE, no one here will debate that. But when you compare him to a string bean slot receiver... don't be surprised when someone calls you out on it.
How do you feel about Zach Ertz? Are you just as surprised as he's one of the top 2 or 3 dynasty TEs? If not when why would you be surprised by Engram? Their blocking in 2017 were closely similar by this ranking system
For the record, Zach Ertz is not built like a WR.
Sure, Engram was not good at blocking, but does blocking even matter for fantasy football?
If we want to debate if Engram is going to be used more like a WR or a blocking TE, we can stop that discussion before it even gets started; he is a pass catching TE. Is that such a bad thing? Last I checked, blocking TEs don't hold much fantasy football value. A pass catching TE is exactly what I want. My TE lining up in the slot or running WR routes is music to my ears. If he's bad at blocking, that means he's almost always going to be running a passing route. Awesome. Sign me up.
Again, to say he's built like a 6'3 212 pound receiver (26.5 BMI) is completely false. He's built like Zach Ertz, a TE who is really good at catching the ball and playing out of the slot and also bad at blocking. If we aren't surprised at Ertz being one of the top dynasty TEs then we shouldn't be as surprised at Engram entering that conversation
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
After Gesicki was drafted:
GM Chris Grier: “Everyone talks about him not being a great blocker. Well there’s a lot of really good tight ends that are pass-catchers that aren’t great blockers. It’s about giving effort and stuff. The one thing we really loved is the skillset offensively… red-zone matchups. He’s big and long and fast. High points the ball well… Loved the film. You see his play speed on film. The jump, on film. It’s a matchup league. He’s got a unique skillset.”
My point being the days of TEs needing to be good blockers was 5+ years ago. Today’s TEs is about creating mismatches.
Tex
I mostly agree with your point, but
@ that quote. All things being equal, I'll take the better blocking TE since he'll stay on the field more, but blocking for a TE is less important than blocking for a RB (for fantasy). Being taken off the field for obvious running plays might cost you a TD at the goal line once a blue moon, but for the most part it's not a big deal. For a running back it could mean losing all important garbage time snaps or 2-minute drill snaps. Blocking shouldn't play into a TE's fantasy implications unless it is going to cost him significant snaps. I feel safe in saying Engram is going to get plenty of snaps even if his blocking doesn't improve at all.
Chaka
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
How often do you think Kelce, Ertz and Graham block? Olson has improved a lot as a blocker but he's still most running routes. Gronk is the only real two way TE in that group, but why do we even care about blocking ability on a fantasy site anyway?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Who said I did. But let's say a wr had 700 yards as a rookie on 115 targets, many of those because he was the only healthy guy left. Would you say that guy had an incredible season or would you say he has a lot to prove still?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
So this discussion I do like. A rookie with 700 yards on 115 targets is kind of frustrating. If we stay away from the WR comparison (because that's just ridiculous), and stick with the Ertz comparison (because that is a more fair comparison), he had 110 targets and 824 yards in 2017. He averages 7.7 yards per target to Engram's 6.2. By all accounts, Engram has to get better with his catch rate if those targets remain.
I think it would be interesting to go back to game logs without OBJ and see how the targets were distributed. In the end, however, I don't think anyone needs to be concerned about targets decreasing much
Consider this: Last year was Eli's least number of attempts since OBJ joined the team, by about 35 attempts on average. So one could say there are more attempts left on the table from the 2017 team for the 2018 team.
Let's say Eli throws below average for attempts in the OBJ days and only throws 600 attempts
OBJ gets 180 targets (career high), then Shepard gets 100 (close to 2016), Barkley 130 (what Vereen, Gallman, and Darkwa got last year)
Let's say Roger Lewis gets 50 as the WR3
even if you throw in another 40-50 for random Wr4/TE2/RB2-3 targets... we are still left with ~100 unaccounted targets that likely go to Engram. And that's assuming career high for OBJ and a below average year in attempts by Manning in the OBJ era.
I think Engram is a lock for at least 100 targets even if he is 3rd or 4th man in the pecking order
Will Tye, for crying out loud, had 70 targets in 2016. Engram is a much better receiver than Will Tye.
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