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1 minute ago, Chaka said:

Anyone have information about how reliable Sparq score are as a predictor of NFL success? 

I only ask because, IIRC, guys like Christine Michael and Jerrick McKinnon had crazy good Sparq scores and I am curious if Sparq really means much.

It was discussed a number of pages back in this thread - it seemed inconclusive at best.

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Drop 100% of the non-football talk and trying to defend any actions justifying violence against women. Full stop. 

The reason Hunt is going before Ware:  1. When people were taking Ware, they knew that there was a 3rd round rookie RB who had been getting 1st team reps lurking behind him. Now that Ware is out

It might be time to take a little break from the internet. 

Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

It was discussed a number of pages back in this thread - it seemed inconclusive at best.

That would be my guess as well.

I'll file Sqarq scores next to Wonderlic scores in my draft file.

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5 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Anyone have information about how reliable Sparq score are as a predictor of NFL success? 

I only ask because, IIRC, guys like Christine Michael and Jerrick McKinnon had crazy good Sparq scores and I am curious if Sparq really means much.

Not sure those are the two best examples. Michael was about as smart as a box of rocks and McKinnon didn't play RB his whole life.

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8 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It was discussed a number of pages back in this thread - it seemed inconclusive at best.

 

7 minutes ago, Chaka said:

That would be my guess as well.

I'll file Sqarq scores next to Wonderlic scores in my draft file.

No statistics or anything to back this up, but I would think more athletes would be successful having done better on both of these items than those who did not.

More goes into it than just athleticism. You can be a super awesome athlete but have rocks between your ears such as C-Mike... or you can be super non athletic but amazingly smart to catch onto little things others don't. 

I wouldn't put all of my stock into these tests, but if someone were to say they were meaningless and don't count I'd say that's equally as ridiculous as those who say all that matters is SPARQ. SPARQ has something to do with success but I don't think one can say high SPRAQ = success; there are more intangibles at play here. As I said, C-Mike and his brain of mush obviously didn't amount to much, probably more because of his mush brain than his freakish athleticism. Some guys like pot too much. Some just stop trying once they have their millions. Others are put into a position that they aren't familiar with like WR or RB


We can keep debating his SPARQ scores like crazy, but thankfully the season starts soon and we will have an answer. At this point you either believe in Hunt or you don't. No different than any other rookie prospect at RB this season IMO

Edited by Dr. Dan
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Just now, Weebs210 said:

Not sure those are the two best examples. Michael was about as smart as a box of rocks and McKinnon didn't play RB his whole life.

Sounds like subjective analysis. They either hit or miss and both missed, the data doesn't care about why.

I think there is probably a Sparq threshold that may, somewhat reliably, predict ones ability to compete athletically in the NFL. But once you hit that threshold I doubt it has much value separating player #1 from player #53 on any given roster.

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1 minute ago, Chaka said:

Sounds like subjective analysis. They either hit or miss and both missed, the data doesn't care about why.

I think there is probably a Sparq threshold that may, somewhat reliably, predict ones ability to compete athletically in the NFL. But once you hit that threshold I doubt it has much value separating player #1 from player #53 on any given roster.

For sure. The way I look at it is if they are able to put it all together(patience/reads/etc) than having a nice Sparq score will come into play.

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There is much more to it then just SPARQ but a good SPARQ score is the step in the right direction and cant hurt. 

The reason I referred to it initially was due to the fact that nothing I have seen from Hunt has impressed me (My opinion)

I have seen some really good flashes from West and athletically I think he is much more gifted then Hunt.  These Athletically gifted backs tend to be fantasy studs in Reid offenses (Westbrook, McCoy, Charles etc)

What concerns me is maybe what is between the ears with West.  He had the starting job before and lost it to a back that I didn't think was much better then him, if at all.  Maybe the coaching staff sees something they don't like? 

Regardless, I passed on Hunt in the 3rd and 4th because I don't trust him.  There is a good amount of fantasy points available in a Reid offense in the KC backfield especially in PPR.  Ill hold West who was dirt cheap and hope for the best.

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One of the many problems with SPARQ scores is that there is essentially no such thing as SPARQ scores from our vantage point. It's not public data. What we have are a bunch of separate reverse engineered formulas that people use interchangeably even though the results of them are not interchangeable. 

It's just a bunch of people guessing how to calculate SPARQ, and given that they vary so much between them it's obvious that some if not all of them are very flawed and we have no idea which ones those are. For instance one of them says Hunt has a similar score to Ezekiel Elliot while another says Hunt is one of the worst athletes to ever step on a football field.

Sure some general info can maybe be gleaned if someone generally scores highly across them and I'd guess you generally want to see that out of a guy, but it's so all over the place you can essentially make it say whatever you want.

And of course even on top of that there's no real data on how an athletic profile correlates to fantasy success. It seems logical that you'd want it and that's probably how it works out, but for all we know being too strong of an athlete stunts a young RB's ability to learn things like vision and patience (because they don't need those things to be successful prior to reaching the NFL) while a weaker profile forces them to learn and excel in those areas to make it to the NFL. We've seen plenty of modest athletes at RB have huge success in the NFL, certainly enough to at least make that hypothesis worth exploring. 

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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5 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

One of the many problems with SPARQ scores is that there is essentially no such thing as SPARQ scores from our vantage point. It's not public data. What we have are a bunch of separate reverse engineered formulas that people use interchangeably even though the results of them are not interchangeable. 

It's just a bunch of people guessing how to calculate SPARQ, and given that they vary so much between them it's obvious that some if not all of them are very flawed and we have no idea which ones those are. For instance one of them says Hunt has a similar score to Ezekiel Elliot while another says Hunt is one of the worst athletes to ever step on a football field.

Sure some general info can maybe be gleaned if someone generally scores highly across them and I'd guess you generally want to see that out of a guy, but it's so all over the place you can essentially make it say whatever you want.

And of course even on top of that there's no real data on how an athletic profile correlates to fantasy success. It seems logical that you'd want it and that's probably how it works out, but for all we know being too strong of an athlete stunts a young RB's ability to learn things like vision and patience while a weaker profile forces them to learn and excel in those areas to make it to the NFL. We've seen plenty of modest athletes at RB have huge success in the NFL, certainly enough to at least make that hypothesis worth exploring. 

 

I like the cut of your jib, sir.  Well said.

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I picked up Shark in a few leagues where he will be a free drop if he doesn't do anything tomorrow night and I can put another guy in his spot. I rode him in 2015 for some nice 20+ game runs. Who knows how things will shake out. The price is right. All the risk is riding with the Hunt owners.

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37 minutes ago, in2win said:

There is much more to it then just SPARQ but a good SPARQ score is the step in the right direction and cant hurt. 

The reason I referred to it initially was due to the fact that nothing I have seen from Hunt has impressed me (My opinion)

I have seen some really good flashes from West and athletically I think he is much more gifted then Hunt.  These Athletically gifted backs tend to be fantasy studs in Reid offenses (Westbrook, McCoy, Charles etc)

What concerns me is maybe what is between the ears with West.  He had the starting job before and lost it to a back that I didn't think was much better then him, if at all.  Maybe the coaching staff sees something they don't like? 

Regardless, I passed on Hunt in the 3rd and 4th because I don't trust him.  There is a good amount of fantasy points available in a Reid offense in the KC backfield especially in PPR.  Ill hold West who was dirt cheap and hope for the best.

I guess I understand not seeing anything that impressed you about Hunt (I disagree but that doesn't matter) but what has anyone seen from West to suggest he isn't J.A.G.?

West had like 2.5 good games in mid-2015 and has otherwise been very J.A.G.gy.

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13 minutes ago, Chaka said:

I guess I understand not seeing anything that impressed you about Hunt (I disagree but that doesn't matter) but what has anyone seen from West to suggest he isn't J.A.G.?

West had like 2.5 good games in mid-2015 and has otherwise been very J.A.G.gy.

The main thing is he has experience in the system. We will see how much that is valued by the coaches Thursday.

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24 minutes ago, Chaka said:

I guess I understand not seeing anything that impressed you about Hunt (I disagree but that doesn't matter) but what has anyone seen from West to suggest he isn't J.A.G.?

West had like 2.5 good games in mid-2015 and has otherwise been very J.A.G.gy.

In 2015 he looked pretty solid to me in his playing time.  4.0 yds. a carry 160/634 and 10.7 yards a catch 20/214

In 2016 he didn't have much opportunity.  He had 4 total games with over 10 carries.  2 games he went over 3.5 a carry and 2 games he went under.

The opportunity really wasn't there for him.  I think one thing he does well at is his receiving ability and if you look at past backs that Reid coached RBs that can run and catch do pretty well in Reids offenses. 

Like I said this is all opinion and I think KC will give Hunt a chance to take the job and run with it.  I personally haven't seen anything from him that make me think he will.  I see more of a KC back in West .

Edited by in2win
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For those that are curious, this is what the West/Ware split looked like last year. The top values are snap percentage, the bottoms values are utilization (carries+targets). West injured his ankle week 3 and it didn't get right until week 7. Ware went out with a concussion in week 8 and came back week 10. West also suffered a concussion in week 11 but didn't miss any time.

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13 minutes ago, in2win said:

In 2015 he looked pretty solid to me in his playing time.  4.0 yds. a carry 160/634 and 10.7 yards a catch 20/214

In 2016 he didn't have much opportunity.  He had 4 total games with over 10 carries.  2 games he went over 3.5 a carry and 2 games he went under.

The opportunity really wasn't there for him.  I think one thing he does well at is his receiving ability and if you look at past backs that Reid coached RBs that can run and catch do pretty well in Reids offenses. 

Like I said this is all opinion and I think KC will give Hunt a chance to take the job and run with it.  I personally haven't seen anything from him that make me think he will.  I see more of a KC back in West .

What does a KC RB look like?

If it were West then why did Reid give Ware the ball a lot more than West?

West didn't get enough opportunity because Andy Reid thought Ware was the better RB.

If West were a Andy Reid RB then why does Reid name Hunt the starter and not West?

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2 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

What does a KC RB look like?

If it were West then why did Reid give Ware the ball a lot more than West?

West didn't get enough opportunity because Andy Reid thought Ware was the better RB.

If West were a Andy Reid RB then why does Reid name Hunt the starter and not West?

Go back though my post on this thread and you will see where I explained that.  Like I said it my opinion.

 

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55 minutes ago, in2win said:

In 2015 he looked pretty solid to me in his playing time.  4.0 yds. a carry 160/634 and 10.7 yards a catch 20/214

In 2016 he didn't have much opportunity.  He had 4 total games with over 10 carries.  2 games he went over 3.5 a carry and 2 games he went under.

The opportunity really wasn't there for him.  I think one thing he does well at is his receiving ability and if you look at past backs that Reid coached RBs that can run and catch do pretty well in Reids offenses. 

Like I said this is all opinion and I think KC will give Hunt a chance to take the job and run with it.  I personally haven't seen anything from him that make me think he will.  I see more of a KC back in West .

Those are some pretty low bars you are setting there. Obviously he adds a little extra to the receiving game but as a runner those numbers are pretty much the definition of JAG. 

Heck most consider Rob Kelly a prototype JAG and he ran a higher YPC and exceeded that 3.5 number in 6 of his 8 games with double digit carries. 

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4 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Those are some pretty low bars you are setting there. Obviously he adds a little extra to the receiving game but as a runner those numbers are pretty much the definition of JAG. 

Heck most consider Rob Kelly a prototype JAG and he ran a higher YPC and exceeded that 3.5 number in 6 of his 8 games with double digit carries. 

I do like the aspect of his receiving game

Obviously there is much volume here but:

The great LaDainian Tomlinson averaged 4.3 a carry and was a STUD

Willis McGahee 4.0

Cedric Benson 3.8

Listen I'm not on some huge WEST hype train.  All I am saying is I'm not using a 3rd or 4th round pick on HUNT. He could run with the job but I don't see it.  If he does and is a top 10 back good for yall who drafted him. 

As a WW or late round pickup I am fine with holding West.  I think if given the opportunity he could be a valuable asset to a FF team

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15 minutes ago, in2win said:

The great LaDainian Tomlinson averaged 4.3 a carry and was a STUD

Ignoring the fact that we're comparing West to a RB that rushed for nearly 14,000 yards during his career, that 4.3 includes his rookie season where he struggled and his late career where he slowed down and played behind a really really bad o-line at 29 and 30 years of age, before going to the Jets to finish his career at 31 and 32 years of age.

ETA: I'm not sure that throwing in Cedric Benson's poor production really strengthens your argument.

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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Took the plunge in a PPR 12 teamer last night that starts 1-2-3-1 no flex, drafting out of the 12 spot. Was surprised to see him and a bunch of other RB's make it to me at the 3/4 turn. I passed on Fournette, Hyde, and Lynch. Cook went one pick before mine. CMC went at 2.10.

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Ignoring the fact that we're comparing West to a RB that rushed for nearly 14,000 yards during his career, that 4.3 includes his rookie season where he struggled and his late career where he slowed down and played behind a really really bad o-line at 29 and 30 years of age, before going to the Jets to finish his career at 31 and 32 years of age.

ETA: I'm not sure that throwing in Cedric Benson's poor production really strengthens your argument.

So now I'm making a case that West is the next LT?  I hope that's not what your taking from my post.

I understand some of you are really banking on your 3rd or 4th round RB pick to succeed in order for your teams to be successful.

I am not Andy Reid.  Just some dude on the couch in his boxers watching Alaskan State Troopers eating pistachios. 

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2 hours ago, in2win said:

In 2015 he looked pretty solid to me in his playing time.  4.0 yds. a carry 160/634 and 10.7 yards a catch 20/214

In 2016 he didn't have much opportunity.  He had 4 total games with over 10 carries.  2 games he went over 3.5 a carry and 2 games he went under.

The opportunity really wasn't there for him.  I think one thing he does well at is his receiving ability and if you look at past backs that Reid coached RBs that can run and catch do pretty well in Reids offenses. 

Like I said this is all opinion and I think KC will give Hunt a chance to take the job and run with it.  I personally haven't seen anything from him that make me think he will.  I see more of a KC back in West .

4.0 YPC is the very definition of J.A.G. and if you look into the 2015 numbers he had three good games overall and only two good games rushing the ball. In 12 career games with 10+ carries he has 702 yards rushing on 187 carries that's a 3.8 YPC rate. (And I did him a favor not including his two games with 9 carries).

Hunt is definitely getting the benefit of "New Toy" bias but West is-what-he-is. When given an opportunity West really doesn't shine.

Edited by Chaka
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1 hour ago, Chaka said:

4.0 YPC is the very definition of J.A.G. and if you look into the 2015 numbers he had three good games overall and only two good games rushing the ball. In 12 career games with 10+ carries he has 702 yards rushing on 187 carries that's a 3.8 YPC rate. (And I did him a favor not including his two games with 9 carries).

Hunt is definitely getting the benefit of "New Toy" bias but West is-what-he-is. When given an opportunity West really doesn't shine.

I agree he is a jag but I'm not sure YPC is a good way to define that. YPC is really sensitive and never really becomes sticky until a player has like 2000 carries.

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So staying out of rejoining this argument now that the season is 1 day away.  It will shake on on its own soon enough.

 

Put me in the camp that says Reid knows what he is looking for in a RB that can be a lead in his system, that he's drafted lead RBs in similar situations before as other teams bypassed drafting them because of preceived flaws, and that when he finds the right guy - who I believe Hunt is - that they are very productive.

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10 hours ago, Weebs210 said:

Hard to say with certainty when we haven't seen a snap of regular season yet.

It isn't hard for me to say that Reid has already named Hunt the starter. You know the player that Reid hand picked to be his RB for 2017 and if he does well beyond that.

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27 minutes ago, Weebs210 said:

Spiller cut again

Was this a move to avoid paying the guaranteed contract to a veteran? Maybe they're hoping to get through Week 1 without injury, then re-sign Spiller to a non-guaranteed contract on Tuesday.

 

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Just now, [scooter] said:

Was this a move to avoid paying the guaranteed contract to a veteran? Maybe they're hoping to get through Week 1 without injury, then re-sign Spiller to a non-guaranteed contract on Tuesday.

 

Yeah, interesting move to do on GAMEDAY.  I think he'll be back. 

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Itching to add West to the end of my bench, in favour of Lewis or Burkhead. Somehow have ended up with 5 Pats on my roster so it may seem like a sideways move but feeling the need to diverse 

 

I just think West will have value at various points this season and possibly be startable along the road. Hunt has everything to prove and it's a long season 

Edited by TartanLion
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5 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

Was this a move to avoid paying the guaranteed contract to a veteran? Maybe they're hoping to get through Week 1 without injury, then re-sign Spiller to a non-guaranteed contract on Tuesday.

 

Very possible but risky going into a game with 2 rbs.

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13 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

Was this a move to avoid paying the guaranteed contract to a veteran? Maybe they're hoping to get through Week 1 without injury, then re-sign Spiller to a non-guaranteed contract on Tuesday.

 

Yes.

10 minutes ago, TartanLion said:

Itching to add West to the end of my bench, in favour of Lewis or Burkhead.

If you must drop Lewis over Burkhead.

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On 9/6/2017 at 4:01 PM, Chaka said:

Anyone have information about how reliable Sparq score are as a predictor of NFL success? 

I only ask because, IIRC, guys like Christine Michael and Jerrick McKinnon had crazy good Sparq scores and I am curious if Sparq really means much.

It's been a very inconsistent indicator for RBs. C.Michael, McKinnon, and Bishop Sankey were big misses with big SPARQ scores. On the other side, Ezekiel Elliott had a mediocre score. Matt Breida is this year's top guy, whereas Fournette barely cracks the top 100: https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/rb/

It's really difficult to take these numbers seriously. 

Edited by TwinTurbo
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2 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

It's been a very inconsistent indicator for RBs. C.Michael, McKinnon, and Bishop Sankey were big misses.

And then look how low Ezekiel Elliott is on the 2016 list: https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings2016/rb/

Matt Breida is this year's top SPARQ guy: https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/rb/

And the you have guys like David Johnson, Ameer Abdullah, Jay Ajayi, Gurley, Zenner who all performed well in 2015.

Its hit and miss but as I said before it cant hurt and helps to be athletically gifted, as most of these individuals are.  I'm sure these test can be thrown out many times as well just like combine doesn't always reflect an athletes best showing

Edited by in2win
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23 minutes ago, lsufan said:

I don't like Thursday night games so I'll probably leave Hunt on my bench tonight. You guys can thank me when he blows up for multiple scores tonight :wall:

Tonight's game is quite a bit different from most Thursday night games, as both teams have been off for 11 days.

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40 minutes ago, lsufan said:

I don't like Thursday night games so I'll probably leave Hunt on my bench tonight. You guys can thank me when he blows up for multiple scores tonight :wall:

Wat, I thought Hunt was the Alpha dog...

16 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

Tonight's game is quite a bit different from most Thursday night games, as both teams have been off for 11 days.

Yeah, roll him out.

Lets start a I'm starting Hunt over __________

I'd start but I failed to roster him, but if I did, I'd probably sit him tonight for Burkhead, who I got with my 14th round pick.

Edited by Ojaays
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17 minutes ago, zoonation said:

16 PPR fantasy points tonight boys!  

I'm starting Hunt in a PPR league .1/1 with 5 point bonus at 100+ combined TDs and 5 pt ever 50 thereafter.

fearless projection: 16 carries for 70 yards, 5 receptions for 65 yards, 1 ReTD (17)

29.5 in my format. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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