Dynasty Kareem Hunt Cleveland Browns

[Just Win Baby 2,611]

1 hour ago, wilked said:

Redraft PPR draft tomorrow...how high would you draft him?  RB10?  RB5?

 

[Ilov80s 30,006]

What s crazy performance. Only Bell had a better RB game last year. Nuts. 

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

5 minutes ago, isiahcleaves said:

ok... please somebody give me advice.  I've talked with a couple of buddies already and still am not sure what to do... talk me off the ledge.

I have a 12 team ppr redraft TONIGHT! 

I have the 3rd pick.

Long story short... people couldn't get together until tonight.  It's the absolute dumbest thing I've ever been a part of in ff.

Anyway... I'm guessing DJ/Bell go #1 and #2.

If I draft Hunt... I get to use his points for this week.

Would you stick with the draft board and go Antonio Brown... or would you go Hunt?

I'm 100% sure Hunt won't last past the top 10 with the virtual guarantee of a week 1 win and how good he looked (with the % of plays he was on the field for) against a top NFL team. 

Read my post above. I answered your question emphatically. 

[Hankmoody 3,775]

1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Read my post above. I answered your question emphatically. 

If he had reading comprehension he'd be posting that in the correct forum.

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

1 hour ago, matttyl said:

Take that play away.  Say it was an incomplete pass.  He still went for 148 rushing yards on 17 attempts (8.7 YPC) and a TD, and caught 4 of 5 targets for 20 yards with a TD. 

 

I'm never a fan of the "take away X Play and he wasn't that good" line. (ETA, I realize you aren't saying that - I agree with your response.)

he scored a 78 yard TD, slipped a tackle to do so, and ran as perfect a route as he could possibly run doing it. 

Alex Smith was sharp enough to notice the coverage, and take advantage of it. 

It was a damn near perfect play all around. There's no taking it away because it happened. 

He also busted a 56 yard run around the outside. No taking that play away either. 

Funny how the "take X play away" guys never say, "add the plays called back for incidental holding" - Hunt would have had another 25 Ru yards without holds that we're away from the play. So it all kinda evens out. 

Its like saying "Brady would have had an awesome game if he had 3 TDs". Well he didn't, so he didn't.

its also true that NFL defenses have mismatches and broken plays in every single game. So blaming the Pats D instead of crediting Smith/Hunt seems silly. 

Edited September 8, 2017 by Hot Sauce Guy

[Ilov80s 30,006]

I love Hunt and am very happy about the 40+ points he scored last week but I think we do need to do realistic about this. We do see players every couple years have insane games and fizzle out over the grind of the season. 

[isiahcleaves 8]

4 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I love Hunt and am very happy about the 40+ points he scored last week but I think we do need to do realistic about this. We do see players every couple years have insane games and fizzle out over the grind of the season. 

but this guy was being drafted in the 3rd or 4th round without the "eye test".  It's not like some nobody blowing up.  It would be ridiculous to draft someone like Hogan in the 1st round if he would have posted a 8/180/3 TD line yesterday. 

 

Everyone loved Hunt's situation coming into the year, but he wasn't as highly touted as someone like Zeke because he's coming from a MAC school. 

Edited September 8, 2017 by isiahcleaves

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

I love Hunt and am very happy about the 40+ points he scored last week but I think we do need to do realistic about this. We do see players every couple years have insane games and fizzle out over the grind of the season. 

 I think the game was last night. That said, my opponent certainly did a weeks worth of drinking afterwards.  

while I understand it was just  One game, the usage, volume, and ability displayed is certainly exciting for his future prospects. Adam and his coach and the team around him, and I  Think we're looking at the beginning of a very, very good  situation for fantasy football season.

 I don't think it's unrealistic to say he could easily be a top-five running back this year. 

[Bronco Billy 2,667]

1 hour ago, isiahcleaves said:

but this guy was being drafted in the 3rd or 4th round without the "eye test".  It's not like some nobody blowing up.  It would be ridiculous to draft someone like Hogan in the 1st round if he would have posted a 8/180/3 TD line yesterday. 

 

Everyone loved Hunt's situation coming into the year, but he wasn't as highly touted as someone like Zeke because he's coming from a MAC school. 

 

He passed the eye test in TC and preseason.  He was making some abnormally good plays there - and not just one or two of them.  All last night did was confirm that he can carry that behavior over into the regular season.   From my perspective he just needs to define how prolific he will be.  Obviously it's unreasonable to expect even one more game like last night's again this season.  But I do think it comes down to where he can legitimize himself as a top20/top10/top5 RB and provide an expectation of performance going forward.

[jmo87usc 397]

1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I'm never a fan of the "take away X Play and he wasn't that good" line. (ETA, I realize you aren't saying that - I agree with your response.)

he scored a 78 yard TD, slipped a tackle to do so, and ran as perfect a route as he could possibly run doing it. 

Alex Smith was sharp enough to notice the coverage, and take advantage of it. 

It was a damn near perfect play all around. There's no taking it away because it happened. 

He also busted a 56 yard run around the outside. No taking that play away either. 

Funny how the "take X play away" guys never say, "add the plays called back for incidental holding" - Hunt would have had another 25 Ru yards without holds that we're away from the play. So it all kinda evens out. 

Its like saying "Brady would have had an awesome game if he had 3 TDs". Well he didn't, so he didn't.

its also true that NFL defenses have mismatches and broken plays in every single game. So blaming the Pats D instead of crediting Smith/Hunt seems silly. 

I normally agree 100%. When trying to set a value on a player you can't Cherry pick the stats you want to use. 

On a guy who has one NFL game on his resume, you have to dissect it a little more.  I think we can all agree he's not putting up 200+ all purpose yards and three tds every week.  But I see no reason he can't be a 15-20 point a week player.  

He is the unquestioned starter.  The o-line looks really good.   And he catches passes well.  Shouldn't have a problem averaging 15 a week.  

Im not ready to claim him as a top 5 dynasty RB yet because we don't know how much of his success is situation related as of now.  Danny Woodhead was top 5 two years ago because he was in a great situation.  Put him on a Jeff fisher team and he's probably worthless.  I don't blame anyone for selling high or holding right now.  Need more info

[-OZ- 8,116]

15 hours ago, joey said:

asked question of Hunt's dynasty value, after this one game explosion, in the main Dynasty Value thread (https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/748837-dynasty-value-discussion-thread/?do=findComment&comment=20406206)

 

but might as well ask it here as well.

If you're ok at RB in dynasty, to you sell Hunt for a top WR like Evans and cash in on this unexpected, early peak in value of Hunt?

Sure but then I'll probably trade anyone except dj for Evans.

[Walking Boot 8,296]

 

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

1 hour ago, jmo87usc said:

I normally agree 100%. When trying to set a value on a player you can't Cherry pick the stats you want to use. 

On a guy who has one NFL game on his resume, you have to dissect it a little more.  I think we can all agree he's not putting up 200+ all purpose yards and three tds every week.  But I see no reason he can't be a 15-20 point a week player.  

He is the unquestioned starter.  The o-line looks really good.   And he catches passes well.  Shouldn't have a problem averaging 15 a week.  

Im not ready to claim him as a top 5 dynasty RB yet because we don't know how much of his success is situation related as of now.  Danny Woodhead was top 5 two years ago because he was in a great situation.  Put him on a Jeff fisher team and he's probably worthless.  I don't blame anyone for selling high or holding right now.  Need more info

That's a reasonable approach. But it's also reasonable to suggest that for redraft leagues we now know he's capable of such a play. Not every player is - some get caught from behind. Some fail to make the catch as smoothly. Some get tackled instead of slipping it.

and knowing that, you now also know that the Chiefs know it. So maybe they draw up more plays like that for him. 

just like they're sure to draw up more deep shots to Hill based on the success of his deep shot play. 

So yes - very realistic to assume he's not going to have games like that every week.

but his upside has been illustrated. That's also meaningful in ranking him for both redraft & dynasty. 

[EBF 1,924]

Hold in redraft. Sell in dynasty if someone think he's an elite player and will pay accordingly.

[msudaisy26 5,903]

Just now, EBF said:

Hold in redraft. Sell in dynasty if someone think he's an elite player and will pay accordingly.

This, you give me a proven top 20 guy overall that is still fairly young (he will be a top 20 guy for the next 3 years) and I am selling.

[zoonation 5,155]

3 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I love Hunt and am very happy about the 40+ points he scored last week but I think we do need to do realistic about this. We do see players every couple years have insane games and fizzle out over the grind of the season. 

So, you taking the over or the under on 1300 total yards and 10 TDs?

The kid needs to get injured not to be an RB1 at this point.  

 

[zoonation 5,155]

He is a baller.   After the fumble he came back and shredded that D.  I'm all in.  Wouldn't trade him straight up for ODB in a redraft right now.  

[Ilov80s 30,006]

Just now, zoonation said:

So, you taking the over or the under on 1300 total yards and 10 TDs?

The kid needs to get injured not to be an RB1 at this point.  

 

Over. Have to at this point,

[Bronco Billy 2,667]

11 minutes ago, msudaisy26 said:

This, you give me a proven top 20 guy overall that is still fairly young (he will be a top 20 guy for the next 3 years) and I am selling.

 

If you have that guy, why would you be selling him?

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

5 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

If you have that guy, why would you be selling him?

That's what I keep wondering. 

Barring injury I don't see how he can't be top 5. And the way he runs and evades direct hits, hopefully that won't be the case. 

I wouldn't deal him for ODB or Evans, or any RB not named Bell or Johnson at this point. Maybe Zeke too if I'm sure Zeke plays 16. 

[kittenmittens 1,285]

4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That's what I keep wondering. 

Barring injury I don't see how he can't be top 5. And the way he runs and evades direct hits, hopefully that won't be the case. 

I wouldn't deal him for ODB or Evans, or any RB not named Bell or Johnson at this point. Maybe Zeke too if I'm sure Zeke plays 16. 

What? He's totally unproven and RB lifespan is so much shorter than WR.  Evans is almost certainly going to be elite for another 10 years.  If Hunt is elite for 5 years he will be in a rare group. If you can get an Evans or Amari or a guy like that then you're crazy to hold Hunt. 

[Hankmoody 3,775]

18 minutes ago, zoonation said:

So, you taking the over or the under on 1300 total yards and 10 TDs?

The kid needs to get injured not to be an RB1 at this point.  

 

Well he only needs 1050 and 7 now, so the over seems pretty easy to me.  That would be like expecting 1125 and 8 in 16 games, a pretty reasonable expectation a week ago.

[Hankmoody 3,775]

They are replaying the game on NFLN right now for anyone that wants to catch it.

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

Just now, kittenmittens said:

What? He's totally unproven and RB lifespan is so much shorter than WR.  Evans is almost certainly going to be elite for another 10 years.  If Hunt is elite for 5 years he will be in a rare group. If you can get an Evans or Amari or a guy like that then you're crazy to hold Hunt. 

First, sorry - I was thinking redraft since that's what I play now. 

Second, I'd probably still not deal him. All players get hurt all the time. WRs get hammy/groin/quad etc. AJ Green missed most of last year. Julio has seemingly chronic foot issues. Nelson tore his ACL No player is immune - when the injury fairy visits, she makes everyone her biotch. 

That said, team, skill set, 4 years of college + last night told me enough to know he could well be the next bellcow for a KC team in a balanced offense. He's a 3-down back who could even get better as he gets more experienced. 

How many years did FFB owners chase KC RBs with a top 3 pick in fantasy? Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson - not a bad run there either. Hunt looks like the real deal. As a redraft owner, he's not going anywhere unless I'm getting something nuts in return. And in Dynasty I'm a hold until I see 3-4 more games. 

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

Just now, Hankmoody said:

They are replaying the game on NFLN right now for anyone that wants to catch it.

Matter of fact I do, thanks! 

[kittenmittens 1,285]

Redraft I understand, but dynasty I would have to sell for an elite talent.  People are overreacting to one game.  

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

Just now, kittenmittens said:

Redraft I understand, but dynasty I would have to sell for an elite talent.  People are overreacting to one game.  

So as an owner, isn't "selling high" also overreacting to 1 game? 

Why not take another game or 2 to see what's what? Another 100+ 5 reception 1 TD game and his value is even higher.  Seems like trading him is more of a knee-jerk reaction than holding him. 

[NREC34 3,561]

2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

So as an owner, isn't "selling high" also overreacting to 1 game? 

Why not take another game or 2 to see what's what? Another 100+ 5 reception 1 TD game and his value is even higher.  Seems like trading him is more of a knee-jerk reaction than holding him. 

Because it's highly doubtful he'll do as well. 

His value will be lower and if you sell it would not be high. 

[msudaisy26 5,903]

24 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

If you have that guy, why would you be selling him?

Seen too many flash in the pans. He could be the next Doug Martin or Priest Holmes. I just know in my dynasty career if I sold guys that flashed this kind of talent right after they peaked I would have won a lot more money.

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

4 minutes ago, NREC34 said:

Because it's highly doubtful he'll do as well. 

His value will be lower and if you sell it would not be high. 

Odds seem better on him doing well. And importantly, I didn't say "as well" - I very specifically said "100+ 5 reception game".  Meaning 100+ all purpose yards and 5 catches. Which IMO is incredibly likely. 

Also seeing if he's again the bellcow - 80+% of the RB touches. 

If yes and yes, his value goes even higher because those suggesting "flash in the pan" will become believers. 

Edited September 9, 2017 by Hot Sauce Guy

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

1 minute ago, msudaisy26 said:

Seen too many flash in the pans. He could be the next Doug Martin or Priest Holmes. I just know in my dynasty career if I sold guys that flashed this kind of talent right after they peaked I would have won a lot more money.

God I loved having Priest Holmes in his prime. No player I've ever had was more of a lock for a touchdown, 100+ or both. Usually both. Even without the yards, he always got TDs. Well, seemingly always. 

Then I also had him the year he broke his neck. The week before that game, I almost had Larry Johnson in a trade. I forget for exactly what. But I got greedy and tried to get one other player in the deal and the other owner balked. 5 days later I lost my RB and that dude won the league with Larry Johnson (#27 btw). I won another league where I'd successfully acquired him, but I was never greedy in a deal again. lesson harshly learned. 

[NREC34 3,561]

2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

But you don't know that. And odds seem better on him doing well. 

I didn't say "as well" - I very specifically said "100+ 5 reception game".  Meaning 100+ all purpose yards and 5 catches. Which IMO is incredibly likely. 

Also seeing if he's again the bellcow - 80+% of the RB touches. 

If yes and yes, his value goes even higher because those suggesting "flash in the pan" will become believers. 

No, I don't. 

Unlike you who knows he's a hall of famer. 

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

1 minute ago, NREC34 said:

No, I don't. 

Unlike you who knows he's a hall of famer. 

I don't know he's a hall of famer.  

I actually said "Why not take another game or 2 to see what's what?"  That's a wait & see approach.  You quoted it and bolded it and everything, so I fail to see how you're so confused. 

Edited September 9, 2017 by Hot Sauce Guy

[NREC34 3,561]

Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I don't know he's a hall of famer.  

I actually said "Why not take another game or 2 to see what's what?"  You quoted it and bolded it and everything, so I fail to see how you're so confused. 

Dude you obviously don't understand the concept of selling high. 

I'm done responding to you. 

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

Just now, NREC34 said:

Dude you obviously don't understand the concept of selling high. 

I'm done responding to you. 

Of course I understand the concept of sell high. 

And I'm saying his value might get higher if he shows consistency.  Simple concept. 

[Hawkeye21 4,165]

The sell high candidate is Gillislee not Hunt. Hunt's situation is so much better. 

If you're in a two QB league or dynasty is would consider Alex Smith to be a sell candidate. 

[kittenmittens 1,285]

18 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I don't know he's a hall of famer.  

I actually said "Why not take another game or 2 to see what's what?"  That's a wait & see approach.  You quoted it and bolded it and everything, so I fail to see how you're so confused. 

Because when he has 6 fantasy points next game, you won't be able to trade him for anything near what you can get right now. Another fumble or two isn't going to be good either. 

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

Just now, kittenmittens said:

Because when he has 6 fantasy points next game, you won't be able to trade him for anything near what you can get right now. Another fumble or two isn't going to be good either. 

That was his 1st fumble since high school, so...yeah. 

How do you know he's going to have 6 points next game? Seems like an unfounded prediction for next week. Evidence would seem to hint at a slightly better performance than that. 

[Bronco Billy 2,667]

17 minutes ago, NREC34 said:

No, I don't. 

Unlike you who knows he's a hall of famer. 

 

Do you think your argument is so weak that you have to resort to this kind of tactic?

 

There are no sure things.  Who says the guy you acquire in your selling-high trade doesn't suffer a career changing injury the following week, or loses his starting QB, or some other scenario that negatively affects his value?  It's all about risk and perception.  Right now you both have a decent chance of being right.  

 

Personally I like letting the Hunt end play out and seeing if he doesn't become Reid's next fixture as a top FF RB.  Doesn't make me wrong, just means I'm more willing to roll the dice based upon what I've seen so far.

[kittenmittens 1,285]

Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That was his 1st fumble since high school, so...yeah. 

How do you know he's going to have 6 points next game? Seems like an unfounded prediction for next week. Evidence would seem to hint at a slightly better performance than that. 

I thought you understood selling high? Apparently not. 

[Hawkeye21 4,165]

Lots of bitter people over Hunt and Zeke today. 

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

Just now, kittenmittens said:

I thought you understood selling high? Apparently not. 

Baffled by this comment. 

He put up a monster game. My position has been, "hey, why not wait and see if he has 100+ APY and some receptions next week to really stablize his value and maybe get even more?" 

Is that not also "selling high"?  I think it's a more patient approach to doing so is all. We all play differently.  The difference is that I didn't personally insult you as you just did me.

Good luck to you. 

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

Lots of bitter people over Hunt and Zeke today. 

Ya think?  

[msudaisy26 5,903]

I have a guy in my league that has been trying to buy Mixon or Cook off me all offseason. He just offered me this. I already know what I declining, but I want to see what you guys think since there is a lot of Hunt love

I give Gurley and Mixon

I get Hunt, 2018 1st (borderline playoffs team), Davante Adams and Perriman.

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

3 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Do you think your argument is so weak that you have to resort to this kind of tactic?

 

There are no sure things.  Who says the guy you acquire in your selling-high trade doesn't suffer a career changing injury the following week, or loses his starting QB, or some other scenario that negatively affects his value?  It's all about risk and perception.  Right now you both have a decent chance of being right.  

Yep. I agree completely - I didn't think there was a right and wrong to it, just philosophy. Apparently other dude took his ball and went home though as he was "done responding to me".  

3 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Personally I like letting the Hunt end play out and seeing if he doesn't become Reid's next fixture as a top FF RB.  Doesn't make me wrong, just means I'm more willing to roll the dice based upon what I've seen so far.

+1

and (gasp) if the next 1-2-3 games show feature back workload, imagine his dynasty value then. 

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,033]

4 minutes ago, msudaisy26 said:

I have a guy in my league that has been trying to buy Mixon or Cook off me all offseason. He just offered me this. I already know what I declining, but I want to see what you guys think since there is a lot of Hunt love

I give Gurley and Mixon

I get Hunt, 2018 1st (borderline playoffs team), Davante Adams and Perriman.

That's a really interesting offer. Adams is a nice get, and Hunt. 

But I probably decline. Mixon is the man, if not this year, next for sure (I think he'll be starting by Halloween). And Gurley should (should) get better as the Rams get better. 

So yeah - that's a hold for me. You're not getting Hunt's week 1 numbers, and you're giving up 2 potential top 5 feature backs for 1.  The future late 1st is meh. If it was 1.01 that's maybe a different story. 

That said I don't know your lineup or how desperate for a WR2 you are. lol 

Edited September 9, 2017 by Hot Sauce Guy

[Hankmoody 3,775]

3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Baffled by this comment. 

He put up a monster game. My position has been, "hey, why not wait and see if he has 100+ APY and some receptions next week to really stablize his value and maybe get even more?" 

Is that not also "selling high"?  I think it's a more patient approach to doing so is all. We all play differently.  The difference is that I didn't personally insult you as you just did me.

Good luck to you. 

His point was you lose the opportunity to sell high very quickly.  Waiting won't do much to increase his value, but it can burst that bubble very, very quickly. 

[kittenmittens 1,285]

2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That's a really interesting offer. Adams is a nice get, and Hunt. 

But I probably decline. Mixon is the man, if not this year, next for sure (I think he'll be starting by Halloween). And Gurley should (should) get better as the Rams get better. 

So yeah - that's a hold for me. You're not getting Hunt's week 1 numbers, and you're giving up 2 potential top 5 feature backs for 1.  The future late 1st is meh. If it was 1.01 that's maybe a different story. 

That said I don't know your lineup or how desperate for a WR2 you are. lol 

You wouldn't trade him for anyone, but you also wouldn't give up a modest package for him either? 

[kittenmittens 1,285]

Just now, Hankmoody said:

His point was you lose the opportunity to sell high very quickly.  Waiting won't do much to increase his value, but it can burst that bubble very, very quickly. 

Stated perfectly 

[msudaisy26 5,903]

1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That's a really interesting offer. Adams is a nice get, and Hunt. 

But I probably decline. Mixon is the man, if not this year, next for sure (I think he'll be starting by Halloween). And Gurley should (should) get better as the Rams get better. 

So yeah - that's a hold for me. You're not getting Hunt's week 1 numbers, and you're giving up 2 potential top 5 feature backs for 1.  

That said I don't know your lineup or how desperate for a WR2 you are. lol 

I took over the team last year and went full rebuild. Sad part is I still can't unload Aaron Rodgers, Golden Tate, or Gurley. I already have a couple of 2018 1sts and hoping to get Barkley.