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Dynasty Kareem Hunt Cleveland Browns


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4 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

But as you said, a pretty fair indicator of his floor. 

No where did I say that projection was his floor.

The floor was his last game basically. I expect him to do better than that most weeks based on previous performance. The projection is the median range of expected outcomes based on the average of all of his performances to date. That includes the good games and the bad.

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Drop 100% of the non-football talk and trying to defend any actions justifying violence against women. Full stop. 

The reason Hunt is going before Ware:  1. When people were taking Ware, they knew that there was a 3rd round rookie RB who had been getting 1st team reps lurking behind him. Now that Ware is out

It might be time to take a little break from the internet. 

13 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

I decided I didn't have a team to win it all so I made a two part move

1. Hunt and Russell Wilson for Deshaun Watson and Gurley

got Gurley so I could do the 2nd

2. Gurley for Zeke

 

1st trade is stellar IMO. 2nd comes down to personal preference IMO. Although if you are out of it, having Zeke suspended for the next few games definitely has some value.

Edited by Buckna
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11 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

No where did I say that projection was his floor.

The floor was his last game basically. I expect him to do better than that most weeks based on previous performance. The projection is the median range of expected outcomes based on the average of all of his performances to date. That includes the good games and the bad.

My bad - I misread. 

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30 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

My bad - I misread. 

No worries. A bit of hopeful exuberance on your part perhaps. ;)

Honestly every players floor is zero. Injuries and whatnot. But typically when talking about a floor for me it is the worst case scenario, just as a ceiling is the best case scenario.

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13 minutes ago, jrwall said:

Hunt (4th rounder) was just traded in our 12-team keeper league (get to keep four players) for Mike Evans (1st) and Jordan Howard (8th)

Seems fair especially considering the keeper aspect of their relative value.

I think I prefer the Evans Howard side of this deal, although I don't necessarily like the value of Evans as my 1st round pick, the talent pool in the first round will be very depleted by all the good players being kept, making that more palatable I think.

Edited by Biabreakable
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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

Seems fair especially considering the keeper aspect of their relative value.

I think I prefer the Evans Howard side of this deal, although I don't necessarily like the value of Evans as my 1st round pick, the talent pool in the first round will be very depleted by all the good players being kept, making that more palatable I think.

Hunt as a 4th rounder next year is potentially 1st or 2nd round value while Evans is a 1st round value in the 1st.

i still prefer the Humt side of this one, based on keeper price. 

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51 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Hunt as a 4th rounder next year is potentially 1st or 2nd round value while Evans is a 1st round value in the 1st.

i still prefer the Humt side of this one, based on keeper price. 

You seem to have forgotten about the Jordan Howard part of the deal.

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34 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

You seem to have forgotten about the Jordan Howard part of the deal.

Nah, I didn’t forget - I’ve never been particularly high on Howard. I’m still not sure how I feel about him. I’m not even sure how the Bears feel about him. 8th round is a solid value I guess...

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6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Nah, I didn’t forget - I’ve never been particularly high on Howard. I’m still not sure how I feel about him. I’m not even sure how the Bears feel about him. 8th round is a solid value I guess...

Howard is currently RB 11 in standard scoring leagues RB 15 in PPR leagues.

Great value for an 8th round pick.

It is two top 25-30 players for one.

Hunt vs Howard is clearly in Hunts favor, but Howard is still good enough to be an every week starter at RB and you get Evans too.

The owner getting Hunt gets the higher upside player and still gets to use a keeper slot on someone else. A lot of people will side with taking the best player in the deal, so I can see that side of it as well. I just think the overall value of Evans + Howard is greater than just Hunt.

To more completely evaluate the trade you have to look at what each teams other keeper options are and how long do those round designations carry over, I am guessing more than one year as Howard was ADP 14 going into this season.

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Sorry guys but this is going to be one of those crazy opposite world games where literally every trend and thoughtful analysis points to a Chiefs offensive explosion but the game will be like 17-10 final and it might even be the Giants with 17. 

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25 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Howard is currently RB 11 in standard scoring leagues RB 15 in PPR leagues.

Great value for an 8th round pick.

It is two top 25-30 players for one.

Hunt vs Howard is clearly in Hunts favor, but Howard is still good enough to be an every week starter at RB and you get Evans too.

The owner getting Hunt gets the higher upside player and still gets to use a keeper slot on someone else. A lot of people will side with taking the best player in the deal, so I can see that side of it as well. I just think the overall value of Evans + Howard is greater than just Hunt.

To more completely evaluate the trade you have to look at what each teams other keeper options are and how long do those round designations carry over, I am guessing more than one year as Howard was ADP 14 going into this season.

I thought Howard was vastly overdrafted this year as a late 1st/early 2nd. ADP isn’t really relevant in terms of his value other than in speaking to consensus value. I suppose the owner could deal Howard now based on that perception so he’s a good get. 

On paper I agree it’s a fair deal. 

Just not one I’d make. ;) 

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19 minutes ago, Buckna said:

The team that just gave up 31 to the 49ers is going to hold the Chiefs to 10? Obviously not out of the realm of possibility, but that certainly would be an interesting turn of events.

I am playing Alex and Hunt, so I am wish casting here. We do often see in the NFL when things become too obvious, we often get served serious humble pie. The Giants D likely isn't as bad as they looked last week, the Chiefs offense isn't the juggernaut we thought it might be, Andy Reid's bye week record seems almost too good to be true. In the end, we have a lot of data on Alex Smith and most of it says he is the kind of OB that can underperform in any match-up. 

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15 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I am playing Alex and Hunt, so I am wish casting here. We do often see in the NFL when things become too obvious, we often get served serious humble pie. The Giants D likely isn't as bad as they looked last week, the Chiefs offense isn't the juggernaut we thought it might be, Andy Reid's bye week record seems almost too good to be true. In the end, we have a lot of data on Alex Smith and most of it says he is the kind of OB that can underperform in any match-up. 

At this point the Giants D is every bit as bad as they played against SF. 

And at the end of the game they lost Snacks Harrison, their best run stopper. 

They got Vernon back but they’re seemingly a rudderless ship and in rumored rebellion against their coaching staff.

giants are a hot mess right now. 

But I agree that sometimes when it seems super obvious the opposite happens. I just don’t think that’s the case here. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Howard is currently RB 11 in standard scoring leagues RB 15 in PPR leagues.

Great value for an 8th round pick.

It is two top 25-30 players for one.

Hunt vs Howard is clearly in Hunts favor, but Howard is still good enough to be an every week starter at RB and you get Evans too.

The owner getting Hunt gets the higher upside player and still gets to use a keeper slot on someone else. A lot of people will side with taking the best player in the deal, so I can see that side of it as well. I just think the overall value of Evans + Howard is greater than just Hunt.

To more completely evaluate the trade you have to look at what each teams other keeper options are and how long do those round designations carry over, I am guessing more than one year as Howard was ADP 14 going into this season.

Agree.  I love Hunt but pull the trigger on this trade every time.  Evans will bounce back and Howard is legit.  Better package. 

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On 11/15/2017 at 7:49 PM, fruity pebbles said:

I decided I didn't have a team to win it all so I made a two part move

1. Hunt and Russell Wilson for Deshaun Watson and Gurley

got Gurley so I could do the 2nd

2. Gurley for Zeke

 

So people are still valuing Hunt in the Gurley/Zeke range? Wow.

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1 hour ago, kutta said:

So people are still valuing Hunt in the Gurley/Zeke range? Wow.

Not that surprising.  He’s had an underperforming mid stretch here but the sched opens up for him down the stretch. He could get within “range” by the end of the year.  

I have him slightly lower, but only slightly.  I see good production coming up here.  Chiefs had a brutal sched to start the year.   

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34 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Just those that value Watson in the Russell Wilson range.  Can't imagine many people unpack it that way.

Interesting. I’d probably take Watson over Wilson, so that’s why I made the comment. If people value Wilson a good bit higher than Watson, I can see maybe doing it.

As Fruity Pebbles mentioned, it sounds like the guy needed a QB for this year, so that makes sense.

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14 minutes ago, kutta said:

Interesting. I’d probably take Watson over Wilson, so that’s why I made the comment. If people value Wilson a good bit higher than Watson, I can see maybe doing it.

As Fruity Pebbles mentioned, it sounds like the guy needed a QB for this year, so that makes sense.

Wilson is QB1 overall this year (QB2 ppg, slightly behind Watson) with a QB8 finish last year and QB3 finish the year before, and he's still only 28 years old.

Obviously Watson is even younger and scored even higher (slightly) this year but there is significant risk there as we've seen this kind of thing before with guys that did it for half a season.

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7 hours ago, kutta said:

Interesting. I’d probably take Watson over Wilson, so that’s why I made the comment. If people value Wilson a good bit higher than Watson, I can see maybe doing it.

As Fruity Pebbles mentioned, it sounds like the guy needed a QB for this year, so that makes sense.

Interesting you take Watson over Wilson after just a few games but Hunt can't possibly be in the RB top tier after the same amount of time.

OP didn't specify keeper parameters so assuming full on dynasty, I don't have Hunt very close to Zeke and Wilson/Watson doesn't come near closing that gap.  But for a contender I could see Hunt's immediate availability plus Zeke's suspension and Wilson's immediate contribution be worth the hit to make a run at the trophy.

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13 hours ago, zoonation said:

Agree.  I love Hunt but pull the trigger on this trade every time.  Evans will bounce back and Howard is legit.  Better package. 

Yeah, I felt like it was a very fair deal in our league. The guy who received Howard/Evans in our league is 5-5 and trying to improve for a playoff push, while the new Hunt owner is in last-place at 2-8 and looking to rebuild. The 2-8 owner already traded Doug Baldwin for a 2018 1st (thought it was too much, but that's just me) and now has Hunt. He's currently trying to peddle off Sanders and Fitz before next week's trade deadline. Love this time of year when teams start wheeling and dealing. 

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10 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Interesting you take Watson over Wilson after just a few games but Hunt can't possibly be in the RB top tier after the same amount of time.

OP didn't specify keeper parameters so assuming full on dynasty, I don't have Hunt very close to Zeke and Wilson/Watson doesn't come near closing that gap.  But for a contender I could see Hunt's immediate availability plus Zeke's suspension and Wilson's immediate contribution be worth the hit to make a run at the trophy.

We can all agree, I hope, that the QB position is harder to excel in early in a career than the RB position. And even with a that, the comparison between Watson and Hunt isn’t close. Watson started slightly slow, but really picked it up after a couple games. Hunt started fast and dropped off bigly.

Watson QB rankings each week as a starter:

14, 15, 1, 1, 2, 2

Hunt RB rankings each week as a starter:

1, 3, 5, 17, 14, 15, 10, 25, 24

I think Watson is a legit dual-threat QB with really good weapons, and is a top 5 dynasty QB. I think Hunt is a very good RB, but not elite, and I wouldn’t even consider trading DJ, Bell, Zeke, or Gurley for him.

Just a difference of opinion, but me liking Watson as a top QB and not liking Hunt as a top RB are totally different situations.

I can somewhat agree with your second paragraph.

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I forget who said this game would be a stinker because it all seemed lined up to be a fantasy explosion - holy crap what a good call. I was squarely on the other side. Reid off a BYE, against a terrible Giants team.

what a stinker. 

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On 11/16/2017 at 5:41 PM, Ilov80s said:

Sorry guys but this is going to be one of those crazy opposite world games where literally every trend and thoughtful analysis points to a Chiefs offensive explosion but the game will be like 17-10 final and it might even be the Giants with 17. 

Kudos.

Chiefs deserved to lose, godawful play calling. Reid learned nothing over the bye. Should have known a tiger doesnt change his stripes over one week.

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