Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Is your implication that Smith targeted Hunt heavily in the red zone? - because he only had 3 TD receptions and one was a 70 something yarder.
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RB Kareem Hunt, CLE (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Biabreakable
- Start date
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
My implication is that with an injured Ware last season, a risk averse qb that had limited talent at the wr position outside of HIll, and an elite T--there were fewer mouths to feed last season. If KC scored last season--there was a solid chance that it was either Hill, Hunt or Kelce as Alex Smith didn't really look at anybody else to score. You now have a younger and a more gun slinger type qb. You also have Ware back from injury and you have another potential red zone target in Watkins. Last season was a perfect storm of events for Kareem to have a massive year. I think this season--the production can be spread around a bit more. I'm not saying Hunt will be bad--I think he'll be a top 10-15rb. My guess is that he'll be a mid-late first round pick in ppr redrafts as the preseason nears. I just don't know if he'd be my top choice that high in the draft. He's more of a mid second round guy to me.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
oh....Alex Smith was not risk adverse last season. He led the NFL in downfield passing. Ware being back is a valid point, but all RBs have backups they lose some carries to. Ware is a lot better than Charcandrick West though.
Deamon
Footballguy
Ya I'm really not sure how to judge him this year. Whats his current ADP anyways? For me I feel like I probably value him around pick 10 in standard redraft, but am assuming he will go above me. Will take him if he slips to the 12 zone and I'm picking there, but might only own him in a league or two. He should be more consistant than last year.... obviously not as good as the start/finish, and not as bad as the middle.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
That doesn't really make him risk averse though. If he's throwing to more open guys or making sure he's throwing it where the WR or nobody can get it those are just as safe as throwing an 8 yarder to Dez and hoping he can come down with it. Smith wasn't really a chuck it up to the guy downfield and see what comes of it. Mahomes seems like he will be a lot more willing to do that. Another concern I think is the offensive efficiency. Smith's execution kept the Chiefs with a ton of possession of the ball. KC led the league with only 11 turnovers (CLE had 41). That's a whole lot of extra downs and chances to pick up PPR and yardage points even if it results in FG, and some of those will produce TD's as well. Cleveland's lost thirty opportunities to run more plays in comparison.
I'm with JVD on this with Hunt and project him in the bottom end of tier 2 at RB12-15. Dynasty rankings he's a bit higher than that because of his youth but he'll go in startups or get traded for equity well beyond what I'm willing to part with. I've moved him in all but one league for good value and am looking to move him in the last as well. I take a very economic approach to roster management and this guy's a sell right now for me.
Borden
Footballguy
If didn’t get to watch Hunt much last year, did he line up wide (like WR wide) much last year?
I was just listening to Tarik Cohen and he’s saying Nagy has him lining up in the back field, out wide and playing ST. I’m assuming he’s being setup more for the Hill role but was just wondering if Hunt did the outside thing much.
I was just listening to Tarik Cohen and he’s saying Nagy has him lining up in the back field, out wide and playing ST. I’m assuming he’s being setup more for the Hill role but was just wondering if Hunt did the outside thing much.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Smith was absolutely risk averse in the red zone last season. Smith had 26 passing tds with 5ints last season. Only half of his td's came from the red zone. Smith was one of the worst red zone qb's last season. His completion percentage dropped to 44% in the red zone and he had 13tds with 0 ints. To put that in perspective--his completion percentage for the entire season was 65%. Smith hit some home runs with long plays last season--but when it came to your typical red zone scoring opportunities--he was very predictable and lack luster. Kansas City was the 4th worst team last season when it came to red zone td scoring %. Last season--Smith threw 26tds---only 2 players (Kelce and Hill) caught more than 3 of them. I have to think that Mahomes could spread things out a bit more.
To @Deamon- ADP is pretty wide ranging this early in the fantasy season--but as of last night--fantasy football calculator had an adp of 9 for Hunt in PPR formats and 10 in standard formats.
I want to make clear that I don't think Hunt will be a bust. I think he'll be very solid--top 10-15 rb. In my opinion I just think that he's going 1/2 round to 1 full round earlier than I would target him.
With West still in the fold and after signing Damien Williams, Kerwynn Williams, and Darel Williams as an UDFA, I don't think its a given that Ware even makes the final roster. Especially with no guaranteed money left and in the last year of his contract. That 1.5M base salary looks like an easy cap savings, especially for a team short on cap space.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think in the context of what @jvdesigns2002 was implying, it was a rebuttal to him being risk averse.
I cropped out the rest of your post - but all of that was true as far as truly being risk averse. I also agree that the offense is very unlikely to be as efficient as last season under a first year starter. I do see a decrease in his overall production but based on the current landscape my early projections have him as a top 7 RB - so not too far off.
Elevencents
Footballguy
Disappeared for weeks at a time last year. Unproven QB. KC figures to be worse this year and playing from behind more often. I just don’t see how he is supporting his current ADP. I would maaaybe think about him late 3rd, so I will essentially not be drafting him this year.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Hunt had some awesome success and his owners had championship visions in week 3. he turned into a pumpkin before long.
I think this is a classic case of Alex Collins syndrome in tha detractors are possibly too hard on him while supports might be too optimistic. Hunt has great upside and would be a RB I would be happy to own, but I would be nervous with him as my RB1 based on concerns brought up in this thread.
I think this is a classic case of Alex Collins syndrome in tha detractors are possibly too hard on him while supports might be too optimistic. Hunt has great upside and would be a RB I would be happy to own, but I would be nervous with him as my RB1 based on concerns brought up in this thread.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
KC's redzone story was incredibly weird last year. In addition to what you mentioned here, I believe they had two games last year where they scored 30+ points without running a single play in side the 10 yard line. I'm not sure if that happened a single time to another team in the league.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
He disappeared because Andy Reid began to think that he could win games on the strength of Alex Smith's passing. When he remembered to give the ball to Hunt, they started winning again.
I'm expecting Reid to remember he has a first year starter at QB and needs to keep his defense off the field. . I also realize that may be wishful thinking.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'm expecting more of the same next year as we always get with Andy Reid RBs. Frustrating spurts where Reid bewilderingly under utilizes him, but good overall performance/numbers at the end of the year.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I'm always surprised when armchair coaches think that a professional head coach is such an idiot that he would actually do the above. rather than be forced to change his gameplan/approach for other reasons such as scheme, injury, etcAndy Dufresne said:
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Are you serious with this? Whatever his reasoning his change in scheme resulted in losing 6 of 7. And it's not the first or second time he's obviously done this. It's a repeated pattern.
He even second guesses himself - https://www.kansascity.com/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/article193459914.html
And he thought himself so poor at what he was doing that he turned over play calling duties willingly to Matt Nagy.
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Sorry, but that’s the way I see it too. Coaches outthink themselves all the time. Reid did it with Hunt last year - I think he was trying to protect Hunt from hitting the rookie wall - and it cost KC wins. Reid falls madly in love with the passing game at times and completely loses sight of what is working for the team.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
what's more likely:
1. Andy Reid has early success with Hunt and either "forgets" to use him or wants to prove he can win with Alex Smith's arm
2. Andy Reid needing to change his gameplan due to guys getting banged up, protecting his rookie from getting overused, or from direction above his head.
I completely agree. I think that's way different than Andy Reid "trying to prove he can win on the arm of Alex Smith" pr that he "forgot" to give the ball to Hunt ("once he remembered to give Hunt the ball they won").
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Based on nearly 20 years of watching Reid coach...the answer is clearly #1.
It's hand in glove with his awful clock management ability.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
wow. well I'll defer to you. if true it's a wonder how these guys make it to that level
Chaka
Footballguy
Someone explain to me why Hunt isn't getting more attention this off-season. This thread hasn't been bumped since 7/11/18.
The best I can come up with is the huge midsesson TD drought. Fine, whatever. Still lead the league in rushing, caught 50+ passes and scored 11 TDs.
Too many weapons? Huh? I think we can slow the Sammy Watkins impact train down by now. He is all potential and almost zero production (and that production came forever ago in football years). But even if he does come through and helps take the offense to the next level, who cares? Longer drives, more plays, more yards, more scoring opportunities. LeVeon Bell says hi. Brian Westbrook put up 116 & 102 Y/G in 1.5 seasons when Philadelphia had T.O.
Is it the opposite and people are worried about Mahomes slowing the offense down with mistakes? A strong running game and dump offs to the RBs are a QBs best friend.
Ware? Pfffft.
My point is that I see no one has a problem with Hunt's ADP of RB#9 but almost no one is is willing to put him top 5. I see various permutations of Fournette, Melvin, Barkley & Kamara consistently put ahead of Hunt. I understand the arguments in favor if each but am not seeing others making a case for Hunt.
Why is that?
The best I can come up with is the huge midsesson TD drought. Fine, whatever. Still lead the league in rushing, caught 50+ passes and scored 11 TDs.
Too many weapons? Huh? I think we can slow the Sammy Watkins impact train down by now. He is all potential and almost zero production (and that production came forever ago in football years). But even if he does come through and helps take the offense to the next level, who cares? Longer drives, more plays, more yards, more scoring opportunities. LeVeon Bell says hi. Brian Westbrook put up 116 & 102 Y/G in 1.5 seasons when Philadelphia had T.O.
Is it the opposite and people are worried about Mahomes slowing the offense down with mistakes? A strong running game and dump offs to the RBs are a QBs best friend.
Ware? Pfffft.
My point is that I see no one has a problem with Hunt's ADP of RB#9 but almost no one is is willing to put him top 5. I see various permutations of Fournette, Melvin, Barkley & Kamara consistently put ahead of Hunt. I understand the arguments in favor if each but am not seeing others making a case for Hunt.
Why is that?
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
He’s being mistakenly assumed (IMO) to be the weak sister in the Fournette/Cook/Gordon/Hunt range in drafts. After watching he and the others play and knowing all the circumstances involved, I too am struggling to figure out why that is. Everyone wants to point at Reid and Hunt’s usage last year but for some reason then completely ignore Reid’s well documented history of supporting top 8 FF RBs throughout his coaching career.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Is Spencer Ware just going to disappear? Hunt led me to a title last year, but I just wouldn't touch him as my RB1.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Reid himself would lament that fact that he did not use Hunt (run the ball more) in a few of the post-game press conferences. He also did the same thing when he had Charles.
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Ware worries me. I also wonder if Mahomes can lead sustained drives or if it's going to be more 3-and-outs and/or quick strikes.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Reid handed playcalling duties over to Nagy and that’s when Hunt started getting more touches. It will be interesting to see who calls the plays this season.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Ware is a quality backup and that’s about it. Reid leans heavily on his best back and that’s clearly Hunt.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think it will be Reid at first but if he does give it to his OC it has to be encouraging that it's now former RB Eric Bienemy.
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't know why he would be more of a concern than Ingram, Yeldon/Grant, Latavius, CJ Anderson, Ekeler etc. They all have backups, they all have warts but Hunt is in perhaps the most stable position of any returning top 10 RB.
Tau837
Footballguy
There are many small reasons. In no particular order:
- Backup upgraded with Ware's return
- QB downgraded from Smith (2017 Smith, at least) to Mahomes
- Offense went from 3 quality targets (Hill, Kelce, Hunt) to 4 with addition of Watkins
- New OC
- Injection of RBs above him in the rankings - return of David Johnson, rookie Barkley, Kamara (for many people), Fournette (for many people), and Cook (for many people)
- Off field concerns (2 alleged incidents this offseason)
- He started strong in the first 5 games - 97/609/4 rushing (6.3 ypc) and 16/166/2 receiving (10.4 ypr), with 4 100+ yard rushing games.
- But then he disappeared for 7 games - 96/321/0 rushing (3.3 ypc) and 22/201/0 receiving (9.1 ypr), with 0 100+ yard rushing games.
- Then he played well for the next 3 regular season games - 78/362/3 rushing (4.6 ypc) and 14/88/1 receiving (6.3 ypr), with 2 100+ yard rushing games.
- He had 1 carry in game 16 but sat out the rest.
- Then he had a forgettable game in a playoff loss - 11/42/1 rushing and 3/5/0 receiving
Perhaps none of the stuff above is significant on its own. But add it all up, and it impacts perceptions.
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Chaka
Footballguy
I appreciate your perspective. How does any of that stack up with Fournette who has bigger injury concerns, has competent backups and is still a question mark in the passing game, McCaffrey who showed very little in 2017, has a TD vulture and a decimated OL or Kamara who put up historical efficiency numbers and will be sharing the backfield with Ingram?
I categorically like Gordon more than Hunt but he has never been very efficient.
They all have warts but Hunt comes back to the most stability of the bunch.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
Well, I wasn't really responding to a question about how to rank the others vs. Hunt, I was responding to why there hasn't been more buzz about Hunt. I think there are reasons for that, as I posted.
I agree that the other RBs in the tier(s) around Hunt also have some issues. That's why none of them are generally ranked in the top 5. It just becomes a matter of perspective. It seems pretty clear that you would rank Hunt at the top of that group. There isn't necessarily a wrong answer here... there is an unusually (at least in recent years) deep group of RBs near the top of the rankings.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Chaka
Footballguy
I think responding to the question by necessity requires comparison to the others who are consistently going ahead of him.Well, I wasn't really responding to a question about how to rank the others vs. Hunt, I was responding to why there hasn't been more buzz about Hunt. I think there are reasons for that, as I posted.
I agree that the other RBs in the tier(s) around Hunt also have some issues. That's why none of them are generally ranked in the top 5. It just becomes a matter of perspective. It seems pretty clear that you would rank Hunt at the top of that group. There isn't necessarily a wrong answer here... there is an unusually (at least in recent years) deep group of RBs near the top of the rankings.
Saquon, for goodness sake is consistently l going ahead of him. Questionable o-line, lots of receiving weapons, new head coach and a hamstring injury and I have yet to see a single ranking with Hunt above him. Doesn't that seem odd?
Heck I've seen people talk about McCaffrey in PPR top 5s.
And I don't necessarily like Hunt above those guys I just think he needs to be in the conversation.
grateful zed
Footballguy
(Rotoworld) Spencer Ware is expected to make his preseason debut Saturday. Analysis: Ware has been sidelined since going down last preseason. He's unlikely to see much work, but the Chiefs felt good enough about him to release Charcandrick West. Ware is locked in as Kareem Hunt's handcuff.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Barfield posted a great stat showing Hunt’s 2017 efficiency with a healthy o-line vs unhealthy. It was by far the best fresh take on his “disappearance”
https://twitter.com/grahambarfield/status/1032689293360328705?s=12
https://twitter.com/grahambarfield/status/1032689293360328705?s=12
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Tau837
Footballguy
A great stat is a stretch IMO. There are too many uncontrolled factors. I don't know what the health of the KC OL was last season, but this great stat seems to suggest they were healthy for the first 5 games of last season... but it is also true that during the first 5 games, KC played NE (#20 rushing defense), LAC (#31 rushing defense), and WAS (#32 rushing defense). So was it the healthy OL or the terrible opposing run defense?
Of course, Hunt gets to face the Chargers 2 times every season...
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Yeah, I recall Ware being the starter before he went down. I question if Hunt is clearly the best back. He started off very hot, the fizzled out for numerous weeks. He did show up in the playoffs, but was mediocre for a great deal of the season.
Yeah, I question if the guy who led the league in rushing last year is the best back on his own team too.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Chaka
Footballguy
I won't discount Ware entirely, he was clearly the guy heading into last season. And he has flashed at times rushing in 2015 and receiving in 2016. He's going to get opportunities and should eat into Hunt's rushing market share more than West did. Hunt had what I believe to be a whopping 79% of KCs non-QB rushes last season (maybe someone can shed some light on if that is unusually high).
But I am also thinking we will see a slight bump in percentage of rushing attempts and more dump offs to RBs. Particularly if Reid lets Bienemy call games.
Bottom line is I don't see any more road blocks than any of the other guys we are talking about. Honestly I see fewer road blocks for Hunt than with any of them other than Melvin Gordon.
But I am also thinking we will see a slight bump in percentage of rushing attempts and more dump offs to RBs. Particularly if Reid lets Bienemy call games.
Bottom line is I don't see any more road blocks than any of the other guys we are talking about. Honestly I see fewer road blocks for Hunt than with any of them other than Melvin Gordon.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He went down in the preseason.SproutDaddy said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You make a good point that even though Ware May eat into Hunt’s carries more than West did, in the passing game it should be the opposite. West was used as the third down back at times and Ware isn’t better in that role than Hunt is.Chaka said:
Ware is not a bad RB at all. At times in 2015/2016 he looked very good, but Hunt looked special in 2017 and you don’t heavily reduce the role of the leagues leading rusher because an above average backup RB is healthy. All RBs need to be spelled and now the Chiefs are in a better position to do that than when West was the guy, but there will still be a strict pecking order.
