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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Alvin Kamara, Saints


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This young man is playing like the god of fantasy football. He's been carrying my teams all last year and this. SO glad I drafted him last year, it has made me watch all his games and OH BOY is he fun to watch!
I think Ingram coming back next week will be a good thing for Kamara. When he's fresh and explodes out of the backfield, watch out.

His second TD showed the most amazing body control, can't think of many nfl players who could have taken a hit like that and still leveitated over the line outstretched without touching the ground. A few plays earlier he had dropped a sure TD on a nicely designed rollout from Brees, so it was a good comeback.

And how about Kamara pulling a Flipper Anderson on that last TD run?  Too funny.

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I don’t know how he fell to me at #10 in the draft this year but he’s made my season so far.

40 points for me today, won me a game I should have lost that will put me in first place when the dust settles

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It was really baffling to me that 1.1 was a choice for people between Gurley and Kamara. How was Kamara seen as a mid-first guy is beyond me. So glad I got him in my new ppr dynasty startup. He is just nuts. Cheat code is the best description of him. That game clinching TD was unreal. 

He kind of combines Randy Moss's effortless speed with Marcus Allen's gliding strides.

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11 minutes ago, tombonneau said:

It was really baffling to me that 1.1 was a choice for people between Gurley and Kamara. How was Kamara seen as a mid-first guy is beyond me. So glad I got him in my new ppr dynasty startup. He is just nuts. Cheat code is the best description of him. That game clinching TD was unreal. 

He kind of combines Randy Moss's effortless speed with Marcus Allen's gliding strides.

His TD percentage was massive last year.  TD regression was not a bad call on him.  He's surpassed everyones expectations.  Will be interesting to see if he can keep it up and if Ingram eats into some things.

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2 hours ago, Deamon said:

His TD percentage was massive last year.  TD regression was not a bad call on him.  He's surpassed everyones expectations.  Will be interesting to see if he can keep it up and if Ingram eats into some things.

His TD numbers will go down a bit with Ingram back so instead of the 40 pts a week he will score 30

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On 10/1/2018 at 5:17 AM, iamkoza said:

they cant work him an entire season like he's worked the last 2 weeks. having ingram back will help preserve him for weeks 14-16. 

I hear this a lot and while I think you are right in that they probably won't work him as much with Ingram back there too (if that is what you meant) can't is a strong word.Guys that have his similar build, size & weight or lighter:

Ricky Watters

Marcus Allen

Marshall Faulk

Walter Peyton

Barry Sanders

Curtis Martin 

LT

LeSean McCoy

Emmit Smith

Heck Ingram is about his same size and nobody was saying he couldn't carry the load. On the contrary, people in his thread are always mad about his under usage and want him to carry more.

What gets me is the same person that will repeat the narrative that Kamara can't "handle" 20 touches will say McCaffrey should get 20-25 carries a game and drafts accordingly, a guy who is an inch taller and 10 lbs lighter.

So if its not his size then what is it about Kamara that makes people think he "can't" carry the load if he had to? Do they think he gets hit hard too often? Is he out of shape? Fragile history? I don't get it. This is not really an attack vs you personally, as you are just repeating the narrative across most all FFB sites. What is it aside from past usage from the Saints who have a history of using backs in this way even before Kamara came along that makes people think he cant carry the load if he had to? This question is pointed at the communnity as a whole, not you personally.

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We’re going to lose some ceiling with Ingram back but it was coming at a cost.

 There were some TDs Kamara got in Ingram-type situations weeks 1 and 4.  But there were a lot of unsuccessful short yardage/goal line attempts every week just going nowhere and putting him at risk for absolutely zero fantasy or actual football payoff over and over again.  If you watched any Saints games you know that I mean.

You can make an argument Ingram doesn’t reproduce last years success.  NO defense is worse this year and game scripts will usually call for the better pass catching back over the between the tackles downhill runner.

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1 hour ago, jtp1982 said:

We’re going to lose some ceiling with Ingram back but it was coming at a cost.

There were some TDs Kamara got in Ingram-type situations weeks 1 and 4. But there were a lot of unsuccessful short yardage/goal line attempts every week just going nowhere and putting him at risk for absolutely zero fantasy or actual football payoff over and over again. If you watched any Saints games you know that I mean.

You can make an argument Ingram doesn’t reproduce last years success. NO defense is worse this year and game scripts will usually call for the better pass catching back over the between the tackles downhill runner.

He topped out at around 58% of the snaps last year. He's averaged 82% of the snaps over the past month.

I'm actually slightly worried. I think he's going to go from being a transcendental RB1 to just the RB1 and I'm not even being sarcastic.

 

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2 hours ago, SameSongNDance said:

He topped out at around 58% of the snaps last year. He's averaged 82% of the snaps over the past month.

I'm actually slightly worried. I think he's going to go from being a transcendental RB1 to just the RB1 and I'm not even being sarcastic.

 

Yet I'm 2-2 with him and Mahomes. That's how bad Derrick Henry is. ?

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7 hours ago, SameSongNDance said:

He topped out at around 58% of the snaps last year. He's averaged 82% of the snaps over the past month.

I'm actually slightly worried. I think he's going to go from being a transcendental RB1 to just the RB1 and I'm not even being sarcastic.

 

Speaking merely as a guy who watches the Red Zone channel I’m at peace with a little lower ceiling after repeatedly watching Kamara getting thrown into D lines inside the ten yard line and coming away with zero fantasy points. It’s ugly and it’s an every week occurrence multiple series a game.

I lose nothing but further injury risk when Ingram takes those carries.  

It’s not just TDs either.  Saints YPC is in the low 3s right now due to their serious inability to move the ball in short yardage situations.  So Ingram getting fed is more about Ingram creating his own production than it is about taking fantasy production from Kamara.

Ceiling’s a little lower now for Kamara but he’s going to be an elite option.

Edited by jtp1982
Wrote floor last sentence meant ceiling
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3 hours ago, jtp1982 said:

I lose nothing but further injury risk when Ingram takes those carries.  

It’s not just TDs either.  Saints YPC is in the low 3s right now due to their serious inability to move the ball in short yardage situations.  So Ingram getting fed is more about Ingram creating his own production than it is about taking fantasy production from Kamara.

 

This is a good point.  Ingram can have his occasional 7 yds on 1st and 10 and 1 yd. on 2nd and 3 so Kamara can take 3rd and 2 to the house.

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20 hours ago, mnmplayer said:

I hear this a lot and while I think you are right in that they probably won't work him as much with Ingram back there too (if that is what you meant) can't is a strong word.Guys that have his similar build, size & weight or lighter:

Barry Sanders

 

In my mind I picture Barry Sanders running low with those monster thighs.....didn't realize he and Alvin had same type build, I guess their running style just looks different to me.

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7 minutes ago, Jacksonke1 said:

In my mind I picture Barry Sanders running low with those monster thighs.....didn't realize he and Alvin had same type build, I guess their running style just looks different to me.

Kamara doesn’t look his H/W. He’s not built like most guys in the same range. His lower body is pretty thin, compared to guys like Barry, Ingram, and Smith.

That said, I agree with the notion that we’re far too quick to assume he can’t handle a full carry load. Especially if we’re assumimg McCaffrey can.

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Good piece from Tuccito’s True Fantasy Points series on Kamara just out in light of the annoying “what if the other guy gets injured” theme on this and the Ingram thread.

Takeaway seems the fall off in fantasy production will be mostly limited to Kamara’s rushing yards and TDs.  Just looking at my .5 ppr league, but if I lost half of the rushing stats I’ve gotten from Kamara so far  (my reading reading of Tuccito’s math below) he’s basically on par with Melvin Gordon and is RB two or three right now.

If you’ve actually watched the Saints this year this analysis pasts the eye test.  Bold added:

 

“Kamara is on pace to post the most prolific receiving season by a running back in NFL history. But it turns out that it's his rushing stats, not his receiving stats, that are unsustainable going forward.

Last season, Kamara averaged 6.1 YPC so his 4.9 Actual YPC this season actually represents a good deal of regression to the mean already. The problem is that, with the exceedingly random nature of YPC and Kamara's rushing career in New Orleans comprising only 176 attempts, Kamara's "true" skill (4.4) hews much closer to the league average (4.3).

Likewise, scoring five touchdowns in 56 carries translates to an Actual TDPC of 8.9%. However, regressing this to the 2.8% league average means his True TDPC is less than half that (3.8%).”

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2018-true-fantasy-points-week05

Edited by jtp1982
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Um, Kamara was worked heavily while Ingram was gone, and now they're giving him a rest and letting Ingram get a lather going in his first game back. It sucks for us Kamara owners but it isn't going to be like this for the rest of the season, jeez. 

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3 minutes ago, Elevencents said:

It’s one game. Even if Ingram has 7 TDs to Kamara’s 0 I’m not thinking the sky is falling. Actually I hope he does so I can buy Kamara in the leagues I don’t have him. 

What would you give for him? Gauging his trade value because I'm trading this week. 

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3 minutes ago, conlilnew said:

What would you give for him? Gauging his trade value because I'm trading this week. 

Three days ago I  offered Sony and Evans for him. Rejected. Now I'm glad I think. And that's because I'm loaded at WR. Thought it was a helluva deal for a guy 2-3 and garbage at WR.

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