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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Alvin Kamara, Saints


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3 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I haven't seen much discussion here of Taysom Hill. He's not a big factor stat wise but he's essentially developing as a 3rd RB and he's been consuming red zone opportunities. It's a Peyton wrinkle in the offense.

He had one less carry than Kamara.

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9 hours ago, KingPrawn said:

Kamara's been missing some practice time lately with what's been listed as "knee" and they ran him a lot in the first 4 games. I think tonight was about getting Brees the record, Ingram some work, and Kamara some rest in a blowout.

Exactly. 

Jeez, have you all forgotten that Kamara was the #3 FF RB and Ingram the #6th FF RB and they co-existed?   Payton in effect just gave Kamara the night off.   By a lot of FF GMs' thinking, they probably think that Tre'Quan Smith will supplant Michael Thomas by the same token.  R-E-L-A-X.   

I'm starting both of them (Kamara at the 1 and Ingram at the Flex), so it's a win-win proposition for me as far as I'm concerned. 

Edited by dcgangstas
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45 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

Based on the idiocy that I see in this thread, this is clearly THE buy low window for Kamara.

Guy I work with, who was bragging about leading his league last week and owns Kamara, comes into my office this morning saying MY SEASON IS OVER!!!

Man, I wish I had first world problems like being worried about Alvin Kamara.

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51 minutes ago, dcgangstas said:

Exactly. 

Jeez, have you all forgotten that Kamara was the #3 FF RB and Ingram the #6th FF RB and they co-existed?   Payton in effect just gave Kamara the night off.   By a lot of FF GMs' thinking, they probably think that Tre'Quan Smith will supplant Michael Thomas by the same token.  R-E-L-A-X.   

I'm starting both of them (Kamara at the 1 and Ingram at the Flex), so it's a win-win proposition for me as far as I'm concerned. 

snap breakdown was 55/45 in favor of ingram. touches 18-9 ingram. i believe routes run was 18-16 in kamara's favor.... also kamara was returning kicks last night. none of the actual data suggests this was a night off.

you reference last year's production... but last year kamara produced at a historical rate/efficiency. it's entirely possible with 10-15 touches per game this year kamara remains productive, but expecting #3 overall ROS may not be very realistic. its also not in the saints best interests to be giving kamara 23 touches a game. for the team it makes a lot of sense to split work 50-50... and the 43 points scored did nothing to suggest kamara will be taking a 66/33 touch advantage over ingram.

Edited by iamkoza
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4 minutes ago, Bayhawks said:

OK; prior to this week, Kamara was rhe #1 RB in my main league. The question is still valid if you replace #1 RB with #2 RB.

 

Tongue firmly in cheek there, I was really agreeing with you. Anyone who sells low after last night, deserves the future frustration they'll get watching him pile up the points on another team. I'd be looking to buy not sell, last night was an anomaly created by the Brees sideshow and Ingram nabbing two goallines. Kamara was involved throughout and was actually wide open on the last td, Brees just chose to throw to Smith.

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I just moved McCaffrey for Kamara in a .5 PPR redraft. I’m 4-1 and also have Barkley, J. White and Conner at RB so I felt I can likely survive this week.  Other team is 1-4 but has a good team (league leader in points against) and obviously can’t afford another loss this week.  

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As an owner I am being realistic.  The days of him being the #1 RB in fantasy football are gone.  I doubt he sees 20+ touches again this year barring an injury to Ingram.  I also see a regression from last year as his production in that part time role seems unsustainable and they give the ball to Hill in read options (and he has yet to hand off to Kamara - who could have taken one to the house last night if he did).

I think AK's production this week is an outlier.  However, what was a floor of 20 points with Ingram out is now a floor of 10, and he will need to score most weeks to return value.

In short, it is not great.  He may be an RB2 with RB1 upside going forward.

Edited by zoonation
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Why are people surprised about this development? RB production is tied to touches. Any reasonable person would have expected the touch percentages to remain the same as last year and for Kamara to revert back to the mean with his efficiency.  That means he was not worth a first round pick in fantasy. 

Drafted in 0/14 leagues and glad about it.

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1 hour ago, tombonneau said:

So are people really panicked? I own him in one ppr dynasty and am not concerned in the least. In my other dyno guy starts Kamara/Ingram combo. Based on what I'm seeing in here, maybe I'll offer CMC straight up for AK ...

Dynasty not worried one bit about the long term (granted it was frustrating losing by one point last night).   Redraft could be an issue some weeks, worried if he doesn't rip off some long TD's points may be pretty low some weeks. 

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I posted in this in the Ingram thread and thought I'd double post here

 

I don't understand why people were so surprised at last night's events.

 

In 2017 Ingram got roughly 70% of the carries. 

Last night, if you take out Taysom Hill's carries, even though those were designed runs, Ingram got 72% of the carries between him and Kamara.

 

Excuse me if I'm not shocked at Kamara being used exactly how he was in 2017 when Ingram was healthy.

Edited by Dr. Dan
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16 minutes ago, Statorama said:

Read the last few pages of this thread for your answer. Lots of Mark Ingram related pearl-clutching going on

Maybe, but there's a difference between over-reacting to game flow in 1 game & trading away one of the best RBs in the game for below-value.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

I posted in this in the Ingram thread and thought I'd double post here

 

I don't understand why people were so surprised at last night's events.

 

In 2017 Ingram got roughly 70% of the carries. 

Last night, if you take out Taysom Hill's carries, even though those were designed runs, Ingram got 72% of the carries between him and Kamara.

 

Excuse me if I'm not shocked at Kamara being used exactly how he was in 2017 when Ingram was healthy.

Sorry but this is BS. Last night Ingram got 72% of the carries between them. Last year you have to go back to week 4 for the last time Ingram got that high a % of carries between the 2 (excluding the game Kamara got concussed on his first carry thus knocking me out of the playoffs). These were the % of carries Ingram got between the two since week 4 of last year:

74%, 71%, 71%, 69%, 62%, 64%, 58%, 69%, 92% (Kamara concussed), 50%, 52%, 59%...

See a trend here? Last night was definitely an outlier.

Edited by shadyridr
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18 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

Sorry but this is BS. Last night Ingram got 72% of the carries between them. Last year you have to go back to week 4 for the last time Ingram got that high a % of carries between the 2 (excluding the game Kamara got concussed on his first carry thus knocking me out of the playoffs. These were the % of carries Ingram got between the two since week 4 of last year:

74%, 71%, 71%, 69%, 62%, 64%, 58%, 69%, 92% (Kamara concussed), 50%, 52%, 59%...

See a trend here? Last night was definitely an outlier.

Ingram: 230 carries

Kamara 120 carries

230 / 350 = 66% 

 

72% is unlikely to be statistically significantly different than 66%, thus not extreme enough to be considered an outlier. 
 

Furthermore, Kamara averaged 7.5 carries per game last season. Last night he got 6. That's not a big difference 

 

I'm sorry if you thought Ingram was just going to be relegated to the bench in favor of Kamara. Most people didn't see that as happening. In fact, I recall many people discussing how Kamara's 2017 stats were difficult to reproduce given how he got his points in general. The warning signs were there. This is the reason I completely avoided him in the subscriber contest. Maybe that's where the discussion I am remembering occurred. :shrug: 

ETA: I'd buy in dynasty, as the potential is huge, but I'd temper my expectations to about 8 carries a game give or take 2. Possibly 8 targets a game in the passing game. 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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I have been getting Kamara offers all day today!  It appears that some owners feel I am of  "THE SKY IS FALLING" temperament.... 

12 Team PPR Keeper (1/2/3/1 & 2 Flex)

I countered a DJ for AK even with you include Brady/Gronk & I will include Hooper & K Cole!  He is giving it serious consideration!  I have Brees on bye....  need QB2

ETA: Maybe I didn't ask for enough!  

Edited by Birdie048
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2 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

I have been getting Kamara offers all day today!  It appears that some owners feel I am of  "THE SKY IS FALLING" temperament.... 

12 Team PPR Keeper (1/2/3/1 & 2 Flex)

I countered a DJ for AK even with you include Brady/Gronk & I will include Hooper & K Cole!  He is giving it serious consideration!  I have Brees on bye....  need QB2

ETA: Maybe I didn't ask for enough!  

Interesting 

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4 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

I have been getting Kamara offers all day today!  It appears that some owners feel I am of  "THE SKY IS FALLING" temperament.... 

12 Team PPR Keeper (1/2/3/1 & 2 Flex)

I countered a DJ for AK even with you include Brady/Gronk & I will include Hooper & K Cole!  He is giving it serious consideration!  I have Brees on bye....  need QB2

ETA: Maybe I didn't ask for enough!  

Wow that would be outright theft. Good luck and let us know if they bite.

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8 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

I have been getting Kamara offers all day today!  It appears that some owners feel I am of  "THE SKY IS FALLING" temperament.... 

12 Team PPR Keeper (1/2/3/1 & 2 Flex)

I countered a DJ for AK even with you include Brady/Gronk & I will include Hooper & K Cole!  He is giving it serious consideration!  I have Brees on bye....  need QB2

ETA: Maybe I didn't ask for enough!  

No way he's going to take that.  Gronk over Hooper is a massive upgrade.

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He wants to part with Gronk....  he is too emotional right now. 

He has Cam Newton as his QB1 (already had bye, so he is willing to part with Brady). 

His only thought was to upgrade K Cole to Watkins..... 

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10 minutes ago, irish eyes said:

If I can get someone to part with a top 5 like back for kamara I would be ecstatic. But I dont think anyone in my league is that big of a bonehead.

It only takes 1, but I agree with you....  I was not expecting a serious reaction. 

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3 hours ago, Phenomena said:

Why are people surprised about this development? RB production is tied to touches. Any reasonable person would have expected the touch percentages to remain the same as last year and for Kamara to revert back to the mean with his efficiency.  That means he was not worth a first round pick in fantasy. 

Drafted in 0/14 leagues and glad about it.

I can't imagine why anyone would think that a rookie RB on the losing end of a time share who finished top 5, ahead of the prime back in his timeshare, might have an opportunity to finish in the same neighborhood.

And, 14 leagues? What's the point?

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3 hours ago, LionOfGosforth said:

Just received an offer including Kamara in one league. May not be helpful without much context or representative of what to expect, but anyway, he offered me AK plus Agholor for my Davante Adams and Kareem Hunt. I declined.

 

Funny, similarly I offered Hunt and AJG for Kamara and Corey Davis. Declined. Dynasty. Didn't really think he'd go for it. 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Ingram: 230 carries

Kamara 120 carries

230 / 350 = 66% 

 

72% is unlikely to be statistically significantly different than 66%, thus not extreme enough to be considered an outlier. 
 

Furthermore, Kamara averaged 7.5 carries per game last season. Last night he got 6. That's not a big difference 

 

I'm sorry if you thought Ingram was just going to be relegated to the bench in favor of Kamara. Most people didn't see that as happening. In fact, I recall many people discussing how Kamara's 2017 stats were difficult to reproduce given how he got his points in general. The warning signs were there. This is the reason I completely avoided him in the subscriber contest. Maybe that's where the discussion I am remembering occurred. :shrug: 

ETA: I'd buy in dynasty, as the potential is huge, but I'd temper my expectations to about 8 carries a game give or take 2. Possibly 8 targets a game in the passing game. 

What world do you live in where a 10% difference is not statistically significant?  That's what 73% (72.7% rounded up) is, compared to 66%

 

Edited by tangfoot
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6 minutes ago, One said:

Kamara owners,  would you take Zeke 1 for 1?

Zeke is leading the league in rushing and is on pace for 70 catches.& 2,000 all-purpose yards ... and has no competition for touches.

There is no way I'd trade Zeke for Kamara, but good luck trying.

Edited by Phenomena
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9 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

I posted in this in the Ingram thread and thought I'd double post here

 

I don't understand why people were so surprised at last night's events.

 

In 2017 Ingram got roughly 70% of the carries. 

Last night, if you take out Taysom Hill's carries, even though those were designed runs, Ingram got 72% of the carries between him and Kamara.

 

Excuse me if I'm not shocked at Kamara being used exactly how he was in 2017 when Ingram was healthy.

 

Not sure what point you are trying to make?

Obviously BOTH Ingram and Kamara can thrive in this NO system with Brees running the show. Is anyone arguing with you over that? They proved it last year. Hopefully this year isn't too different.

The one thing arguing about touches or percentages ignores is talent. While Ingram is an excellent RB, Kamara is a generational talent. A true game-breaker.

The Saints staff is smart to keep him fresh for games when they really need him (like the playoffs last year). In the meantime Ingram should continue to produce as a RB1.

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1 hour ago, Truebluey said:

 

Not sure what point you are trying to make?

Obviously BOTH Ingram and Kamara can thrive in this NO system with Brees running the show. Is anyone arguing with you over that? They proved it last year. Hopefully this year isn't too different.

The one thing arguing about touches or percentages ignores is talent. While Ingram is an excellent RB, Kamara is a generational talent. A true game-breaker.

The Saints staff is smart to keep him fresh for games when they really need him (like the playoffs last year). In the meantime Ingram should continue to produce as a RB1.

Kamara is more talented than Gurley and Barkley? 

Edited by kittenmittens
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