Dynasty & Redraft: RB Alvin Kamara, Saints

[Kwai Chang Caine 1,037]

4 hours ago, Gandalf said:

Can someone explain to me the lack of usage inside the 10? He’s one of the best RBs in the league and there do not seem to be plays in the playbook for him inside the 10. What is up with that?

He can’t ge two yards when needed. Why use him down near the goal when you now have Hill and Murray much more likely to cash in.

He ruined me this year. It was like blowing a first round pick on James White.

Edited November 29, 2019 by Kwai Chang Caine

[kittenmittens 1,267]

Buy window open in dynasty? 

[Gandalf 520]

3 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

Buy window open in dynasty? 

Yes it has to be. He’s still one of the best RBs in the league.

[Scut Farkus 21]

9 hours ago, tricky92 said:

Dude already broke my season. Will go down as one of my worst first round picks. Thank God for those two weeks he was out and Lativus actually performed at an RB1 level.

 

7 hours ago, RBM said:

Something not right with him. Hate to think he peaked. 

 

7 hours ago, Kwai Chang Caine said:

He can’t ge two yards when needed. Why use him down near the goal when you now have Hill and Murray much more likely to cash in.

He ruined me this year. It was like blowing a first round pick on James White.

He got hurt, whaddaya gonna do?

[kittenmittens 1,267]

50 minutes ago, Scut Farkus said:

 

 

He got hurt, whaddaya gonna do?

Buy.  Buy buy buy

[ILUVBEER99 1,369]

8 hours ago, RBM said:

Something not right with him. Hate to think he peaked. 

He had a HAS,  just like Barkley.  They don't all of a sudden suck.  They are hurt.  They can play through a high ankle sprain but it screws a RB throughout the entire season.

[The Frankman 3,321]

Quote

Alvin Kamara rushed 13 times for 25 yards in the Saints' 48-46, Week 14 loss to the 49ers, adding four catches for 18 yards on six targets.

It's been that kind of year for Kamara, who hasn't scored since Week 3. It's hard to believe he's healthy after missing multiple games with a high-ankle sprain. The workload was still there, however, with 17 touches. Latavius Murray was once again just the better player, turning his nine touches into 94 yards. Kamara was stuffed on a 3rd-and-goal from the one-yard line in the second quarter before Drew Brees snuck it in for the score on the next play. Kamara has been a massive fantasy bust. He'll get the Colts at home in Week 15.

 

Edited December 8, 2019 by The Frankman

[Loipz 231]

12 minutes ago, The Frankman said:

 

Another awesome week!

[kodycutter 858]

Still waiting for a "i'm putting your fantasy team on my back" game Alvin....

[bcat01 276]

What a joke.  

[shadyridr 14,320]

Both his Tds came in one game. He scored 4 points in my league when saints scored 45. Insane 

[Long Ball Larry 14,288]

what do we think?  is it reasonable to sit him this week?

[Gandalf 520]

I don’t think he’s healthy. Or at least the ankle injury is playing a role in how he’s being used. I can’t imagine you drafted Kamara in the first and have 30 alternatives you would use over us. I don’t think you sit him

[Cobbler1 1,097]

2 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

what do we think?  is it reasonable to sit him this week?

Of course not

[Long Ball Larry 14,288]

i get why you guys are reluctant to sit him, but have you watched the way he is playing?  he is clearly not right and is not being used in nearly the same way as prior to the injury.

[Manster 776]

Sitting

[Cobbler1 1,097]

2 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

i get why you guys are reluctant to sit him, but have you watched the way he is playing?  he is clearly not right and is not being used in nearly the same way as prior to the injury.

He’s clearly hindered by the injury no doubt. And I’ll amend to say in my previous post I’m referring to ppr. I wouldn’t so readily dismiss the thought of benching in standard. In ppr post injury he’s at 15.1 ppg which is tied for rb14. So a high end rb2. 
As far as usage post injury he’s had 12, 23, 20, 15, 17 touches for an average of 17.4 touches per game. His carries are down but his targets and receptions are up compared to before. There’s a lot to work through in those sample sizes- like maybe throwing out the game Brees was hurt in, or throwing out the weird ### kicking Atlanta gave to them, or assessing whether his decrease in carries post injury had more to do with Brees’ return than his injury. 
Regardless, in ppr I feel pretty good about him scoring 12-18 points on average and at some point finding the end zone again in which case he’s pushing 20+. People were complaining about Adams not scoring for 6 straight or whatever then he got wet 3x in 2 games. Nick Chubb had 6 tds his first 6 games then 1 in his next 7. The point is, as most people agree, tds can be somewhat fluky. It’s not like he’s being cucked at the goal line by someone. It’s just been a weird stretch of games for him.

Edited December 12, 2019 by Cobbler1

[Long Ball Larry 14,288]

5 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

He’s clearly hindered by the injury no doubt. And I’ll amend to say in my previous post I’m referring to ppr. I wouldn’t so readily dismiss the thought of benching in standard. In ppr post injury he’s at 15.1 ppg which is tied for rb14. So a high end rb2. 
As far as usage post injury he’s had 12, 23, 20, 15, 17 touches for an average of 17.4 touches per game. His carries are down but his targets and receptions are up compared to before. There’s a lot to work through in those sample sizes- like maybe throwing out the game Brees was hurt in, or throwing out the weird ### kicking Atlanta gave to them, or assessing whether his decrease in carries post injury had more to do with Brees’ return than his injury. 
Regardless, in ppr I feel pretty good about him scoring 12-18 points on average and at some point finding the end zone again in which case he’s pushing 20+. People were complaining about Adams not scoring for 6 straight or whatever then he got wet 3x in 2 games. Nick Chubb had 6 tds his first 6 games then 1 in his next 7. The point is, as most people agree, tds can be somewhat fluky. It’s not like he’s being cucked at the goal line by someone. It’s just been a weird stretch of games for him.

yeah, i have one standard league where i have him and 1 small ppr.

fair point about the goal line.  https://www.lineups.com/nfl/running-back-rb-redzone-rush-attempts

Looking at these stats, for the 9 full games he has played:

in the past 4 weeks we have:

RZ rush att: Kamara 9, Murray 2

RZ targets: Kamara 4, Murray 1

WR RZ targets: 9

TE RZ targets: 10

in the first 5 weeks, it was:

RZ rush att: Kamara 11, Murray 1

RZ targets: Kamara 5, Murray 1

WR RZ targets: 9

TE RZ targets: 6

So maybe the usage isn't as different as I thought, at least not in the red zone.  Basically 4 opportunities went away from Kamara and Murray to the TE.  3 of those were to Jared Cook in week 12.  And maybe part of this is just matchup-dependent.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine 1,037]

15 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

what do we think?  is it reasonable to sit him this week?

I had three teams with him. 

All are dead.

 

Christ’s sake, Patrick Laird outscored him. That team of mine is still in it. In a way it’s relief that my Kamara teams are out...

[electric Ape 159]

4 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

i get why you guys are reluctant to sit him, but have you watched the way he is playing?  he is clearly not right and is not being used in nearly the same way as prior to the injury.

I have a slightly different perspective on Kamara. I agree that he hasn’t flashed the eye popping, crazy, next-level play from his first two seasons as much in 2019 but I don’t see a player that is physically laboring out on the field. I don’t think he’s 100%, but by week 15 who really is? My feeling is that it would be a mistake to sit him on the premise that he’s significantly impaired.

What’s killed Kamara this season has been getting way less TDs and way less big plays. We know that both of those play categories are heavily influenced by randomness. If you look at Kamara’s per-game yardage splits, this season really isn’t much different than his first 2 seasons:

 

TOTAL YARDS PER GAME

2017 – 97.1

2018 – 106.2

2019 – 97.6

 

With a sample size as small as 11 games, TD and big play droughts aren’t uncommon. My feeling is that unless you have very, very good alternatives, you start Kamara and hope the randomness plays out more in his favor.

[kodycutter 858]

Alright Alvin, time to shine today.   No more riding the bus, need you driving the bus.

edit: Alvin - save it for tomorrow.

Edited December 15, 2019 by kodycutter

[Manster 776]

On 12/12/2019 at 10:42 AM, electric Ape said:

I have a slightly different perspective on Kamara. I agree that he hasn’t flashed the eye popping, crazy, next-level play from his first two seasons as much in 2019 but I don’t see a player that is physically laboring out on the field. I don’t think he’s 100%, but by week 15 who really is? My feeling is that it would be a mistake to sit him on the premise that he’s significantly impaired.

What’s killed Kamara this season has been getting way less TDs and way less big plays. We know that both of those play categories are heavily influenced by randomness. If you look at Kamara’s per-game yardage splits, this season really isn’t much different than his first 2 seasons:

 

TOTAL YARDS PER GAME

2017 – 97.1

2018 – 106.2

2019 – 97.6

 

With a sample size as small as 11 games, TD and big play droughts aren’t uncommon. My feeling is that unless you have very, very good alternatives, you start Kamara and hope the randomness plays out more in his favor.

Depends on your scoring setup.  He's riding the pine for Mack and Ekeler for me, in a non ppr TD heavy league.  And beyond the randomness, he just doesn't look as explosive. 

[tricky92 496]

2 hours ago, Manster said:

Depends on your scoring setup.  He's riding the pine for Mack and Ekeler for me, in a non ppr TD heavy league.  And beyond the randomness, he just doesn't look as explosive. 

I don’t think he’s been healthy most of the season. You’re right... there’s no explosion to his game at all. 

[kodycutter 858]

I like this Alvin.

[tombonneau 985]

13 minutes ago, kodycutter said:

I like this Alvin.

[ConnSKINS26 5,718]

Good time for the TD regression to happen, glad I trusted him and didn't get cute. Still a stud. 

[Gandalf 520]

Redemption. Glad I survived the TD drought  long enough to make it to the championship 

[The Frankman 3,321]

Quote

Alvin Kamara rushed 11 times for 80 yards and two touchdowns in the Saints' Week 16 win over the Titans.

He caught 6-of-7 targets for 30 yards in the passing game, but the big news was Kamara ending his personal touchdown drought with a 40-yard score in the third quarter. It was Kamara's longest run of the season and his first score since Week 3. He later put the cherry on top with a one-yard plunge. This was also Kamara's first 100-yard game since Week 12 against the Panthers. Kamara will get Carolina again in Week 17.

 

Edited December 23, 2019 by The Frankman

[IHEARTFF 1,058]

That was the Saints first 40+ yard TD all season. Graphic last night said the Chiefs led the league with 12 and now the Bears were the only team with 0.

[Leroy Hoard 13,452]

6 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

That was the Saints first 40+ yard TD all season. 

Amazing stat when you consider the offense and its players.

[Faust 5,024]

 

Quote

Alvin Kamara rushed seven times for 21 yards and a touchdown in the Saints' Wild Card loss to the Vikings, adding eight receptions for 34 additional yards.

Kamara battled injuries for the first time in his career this season and truly seemed to be operating at less than 100 percent down the stretch. Still, the incredibly fantasy-friendly RB still posted plenty-respectable 171-797-5 rushing and 81-533-1 receiving lines on the season. 2019 marked the third consecutive year that Kamara caught at least 80 passes, a feat only Marshall Faulk and Christian McCaffrey have also accomplished among all RBs to ever play the game. The Saints routinely featured Kamara as their true No. 1 RB ahead of Latavius Murray, as he played at least 59% of the offense's snaps in every game except for their blowout win over the Panthers in Week 17. Kamara should once again be drafted inside the first five-or-so picks in fantasy drafts of all shapes and sizes in 2020.

Jan 5, 2020, 5:04 PM ET

 

 

[Doug B 6,585]

Maybe recency bias ... but I don’t want Kamara in the first round next season. Dude’s got to prove it all over again.

Edited January 6, 2020 by Doug B

[Tanner9919 392]

4 hours ago, Doug B said:

Maybe recency bias ... but I don’t want Kamara in the first round next season. Dude’s got to prove it all over again.

agreed. For all the love this kid gets, I just don't see it play out on the field. When I watch Saints games, he's never doing much, he's mostly an ordinary joe. definitely glad I didn't pick him early, and won't be looking to draft him anywhere in the top 2 rounds in 2020.

[Kwai Chang Caine 1,037]

9 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

agreed. For all the love this kid gets, I just don't see it play out on the field. When I watch Saints games, he's never doing much, he's mostly an ordinary joe. definitely glad I didn't pick him early, and won't be looking to draft him anywhere in the top 2 rounds in 2020.

Dude killed three of my teams including my most important home league. That said though, he could be a nice value next year if he falls to second round or even the very end of round one.

[Statorama 2,883]

14 hours ago, Doug B said:

Maybe recency bias ... but I don’t want Kamara in the first round next season. Dude’s got to prove it all over again.

I don't know if it was the injury or what, but he sleep-walked through most of the season....and looked clueless in the one playoff game.

He's a PPR machine though, that value might bring him back to a late first.  Won't be picked there by me though.

[killface 2,429]

1 hour ago, Statorama said:

I don't know if it was the injury or what, but he sleep-walked through most of the season....and looked clueless in the one playoff game.

He's a PPR machine though, that value might bring him back to a late first.  Won't be picked there by me though.

that's the thing...i never though he was that talented but he's perfect for that system.  On another team he's a jag but on the saints he's going to catch 70 passes from brees

[Leroy Hoard 13,452]

Non PPR he is problematic unless he gets those TD chances.

[Gandalf 520]

On 1/6/2020 at 4:37 PM, Leroy Hoard said:

Non PPR he is problematic unless he gets those TD chances.

This is the issue. He’s not used inside the 10 much. I’m starting to wonder if he’s a RB2 masquerading as an RB1 even in 0.5 PPR. If so, then he could be a “sell medium” instead of a buy low. Also I don’t think you can really buy low on him because every ranking I’ve seen has him as a 2020 first round pick.

Edited February 5, 2020 by Gandalf

[Gandalf 520]

Curious for a value check. What dynasty WRs would you trade straight up for Kamara?

[fruity pebbles 3,255]

1 hour ago, Gandalf said:

Curious for a value check. What dynasty WRs would you trade straight up for Kamara?

Anyone outside MT

[Faust 5,024]

 

Quote

Alvin Kamara said his leg was at 75% last season, but he is now 100% healthy.

Kamara's before and after injury splits were notable in 2019, particularly in the broken tackle department. Whenever healthy, Kamara offers game-breaking ability in the open field, showcasing wiggle and enough strength to break through one-on-one arm tackles. Unfortunately, that was stripped from him in the second half of last season. Assuming he has a healthy offseason, Kamara could be slightly undervalued as a borderline top-five fantasy pick with Drew Brees checking down underneath more than ever. Only Marshall Faulk, Christian McCaffrey, and Kamara have caught at least 80 passes in three consecutive seasons at the position.

SOURCE: Alvin Kamara on Twitter

Mar 10, 2020, 8:30 PM ET

 

[Faust 5,024]

 

Alvin Kamara looms as Saints' next big contract decision

[Faust 5,024]

 

Alvin Kamara tantalizes in our 2020 fantasy football projections

[Faust 5,024]

 

Fantasy Football: Expect Positive TD Regression for Alvin Kamara in a Contract Year

[Faust 5,024]

 

Game-By-Game Projections: Alvin Kamara (2020 Fantasy Football)

[Faust 5,024]

 

Quote

Saints RB coach Joel Thomas confirmed Alvin Kamara played through knee, ankle and back injuries last season.

Thomas specifically pointed to the game against the Seahawks where injuries piled up, yet Kamara still handled 25 touches for 161 total yards and two touchdowns. "His 75 percent is a lot of people’s 100 percent.," Thomas told reporters. "That’s why he was playing through the injuries." Kamara sat out two games in the middle of the season, and his broken tackle rate took a nosedive in the second half of the season. Look for Kamara to be on the positive end of touchdown regression this season after scoring just six times last year.

SOURCE: Nick Underhill on Twitter

Jun 15, 2020, 2:02 PM ET

 

[Faust 5,024]

 

How much better will a healthy Alvin Kamara be for Saints in 2020?

[Just Win Baby 2,586]

 

[Blackbear 324]

Definitely a 13 M dollar guy, as is Cook. Problem is the cba didn’t do them favors. This could easily get ugly. You have guys making a fraction of what they are worth and feel like no leverage due to cba. AJones another example. Fournette too. These guys are all worth so much. Yet this cba gives owners leverage. I think they may band together as RB3 brothers and say enough is enough... we make a lot of plays and literally run through walls. 

[Blackbear 324]

My point is there are backup QBs making north of 15 million. And the QBs are soo protected. If a QBs dives in head first... well that is a helluva play. Everyone cheers. And announcers say what a show of heart. Next play an rb lowers his head and gets four yards. And again. And again. Not much talk. An rb has to run into a brick wall with head down nearly twenty plays a game. 
 

These young RBs on a rookie contract do it and work so hard to get the contract the backup QBs for Indy has. Who holds a clipboard this season. Something is wrong with this picture. Very wrong.