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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Alvin Kamara, Saints


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Alvin Kamara should say... I’m holding out. You gave a guy franchise paying huge money for not having an ounce of talent I have. Play without me. Get a Super Bowl without me. He will be the domino that falls. Now talk about AJones. Guy gets north of five yards on that contract. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

 

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Saints RB Alvin Kamara said he "tore his knee" in Week 6 and "was dealing with it the whole season."

The injury did not require surgery. Instead, the 25-year-old rehabbed throughout the offseason and claims to be "healthy" now. Kamara was knowingly playing through injury, avoiding a tackle every 7.3 touches from Week 10 on compared to every 3.1 touches prior to his leg injury, but this confirms he dealt with a high-ankle sprain, back issues, and a knee tear over the second half of the season. Assuming he's 100% for the regular season after foregoing surgery, Kamara remains a top-four overall pick in fantasy drafts.

SOURCE: Nick Underhill on Twitter

Aug 10, 2020, 2:40 PM ET

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

 Sounds like the contract situation might get taken care of before the season, that is a good sign for his health IMO. The Saints got to check him out and make sure he's fully recovered. He is such a perfect fit in New Orleans and is probably in for a big season. 

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Have the #5 pick in one league and in mocks he's slipped to me a few times.

Only thing with Kamara is weekly aggravation seeing:

1) T. Hill steal TDs.

2) Payton getting cute and running TE sweeps for TDs.

3) L. Murray stealing TDs.

4) Payton getting even cuter and doing play action on the 1 to the 5th string TE.

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A few concerns, but nothing that's a deal breaker. If I were picking 5th or 6th and he was on the board, I'd grab Kamara. 

  • Emmanuel Sanders - clearly has plenty left in the tank. Elite route runner. Brees is going  to love him. He won't have a career year, but IMO 75 receptions/7 TDs isn't unrealistic. they have to come from somewhere. Will Kamara repeat his 81 catch season trend, or will it be closer to 45-60?
  • Murray went absolute ham when Kamara missed time last year. Could he have a larger role with a healthy Kamara this year, ala Ingram? Will Payton do it to keep him fresh? I recall last season that's how everyone projected Murray. They were wrong of course, but when Kamara went down, in stepped Murray to some huge games (I had him - he was a monster flex play). I have to wonder if Payton will incorporate more Murray, and especially where he excelled at GL/short yardage. IIRC he's one of the best in the league in that situation.  Those would seem to come directly at Kamara's expense. 
  • As @kyoun1e just mentioned, T.Hill is a vulture. Whether it's at TE or as a rushing QB, or used out of the backfield on gadget plays, they're going to use him. 

I think Kamara is worthy of a first round pick, especially in PPR.  I am a bit skeptical he repeats his magical 2018 season where those 18 total TDs bumped his value quite a bit. 

If he hits 194 carries (his 2018 total) & let's say 65 receptions, at his career averages that's 970 yards rushing (at 5 per), 552 Rec (8.5 per) he'll have a very solid 1522 total yards.  So it really depends on whether he can score at a high rate or not.  With Sanders in town & Murray potentially getting GL work, that's gonna be harder to do.

Last year he had just 23 fewer carries & the same number of receptions (81) as 2018 & only scored 6 total TDs.  I know he missed a couple games, but touches are touches.

Seems like the X-factor will be his touchdowns. And unfortunately I see a few reasons those might not leap back into the double digits. But you never know - kinda like drafting SP in FBB. Never draft for wins, always draft for K's, ERA & WHIP.  In theory Kamara may be like DeGrom the year he got the Cy, but had poor run support & a weak bullpen so he only won a handful of games.

Will he have 6 or 18 TDs? That's what will likely be the difference between a top 4 and a top 10 finish, assuming a healthy season.  If I had to bet, I'd put the O/U at 11 for total TDs. I think that's a reasonable number to expect. 

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Starting to lean Cook over Kamara if given the choice.

I think Kamara is a "safe" pick at #5, but he does have L. Murray, T. Hill, and Payton shenanigans to deal with weekly.

Cook is going to be the centerpiece of that offense that wants to run (for as long as he's healthy). And as long as you lock up Mattison by round 8 or 9 you're set.

That said, I'll take Kamara if somebody snags Cook at 4. Kamara's weekly floor will be solid due to receptions and he'll have ceiling weeks. 

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This probably doesn't mean a whole lot, but it's something:

The Saints, in recent history during the Payton-Loomis regime, tend to settle with holdout players in time for the regular season. Drew Brees in 2012, Michael Thomas last year (would have to research if he actually missed any practices**), Jimmy Graham in 2014 (?), etc. They don't typically hardline guys to the point of having to miss regular season games.

That's no guarantee, of course.
 

**EDIT: Thomas missed three days of camp.

Edited by Doug B
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Do we think this Yahoo article is good information?
 

An Alvin Kamara absence doesn’t have as much teeth as most NFL holdouts

Quote

If he misses more than five days of practice, Kamara will not be credited an accrued season for 2020 even if he plays in all 16 regular season games. That means he would be a restricted free agent in 2021 rather than an unrestricted free agent as he’s currently scheduled.

Kamara would then be forced to sign a one-year restricted free agent tender with the Saints, valued at between $4 and $5 million. It would work essentially the same way as a franchise tag, except for costing the Saints less than half as much against the salary cap.

 

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"No leverage" 🤣

 

He has tons of leverage.  Saints are all in this year.  They have already screwed their cap to oblivion next year. 

If Kamara doesn't play he takes their championship chances down a few notches.  

All of these backs have leverage if they play for a contender.  Let them know you'll play your 6 games and sit if not paid.  Maybe they even get "migraines" for 6 weeks. 

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55 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Do we think this Yahoo article is good information?
 

An Alvin Kamara absence doesn’t have as much teeth as most NFL holdouts

 

Yes, but he can "miss" practice while still being present like Melvin Ingram did. 

That's the new recipe. 

Also I believe that is training camp practices and not during the season, but I'm not certain of that. 

Edited by kittenmittens
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Rotoworld take:

Josina Anderson reports the Saints are "open to trading" Alvin Kamara.

Ex-ESPN reporter Anderson has many strong connections in the player community. This would qualify as "stunning but not surprising," as the Saints and Kamara have not seemed anywhere close to on the same page with his expiring contract. Due $2.133 million in the final year of his rookie deal, Kamara has piled up touches for the Saints while taking a beating. He dealt with ankle and knee injuries last season and has dealt with a concussion. Headed into his age-25 campaign, Kamara knows the time to get paid is now. Kamara's departure would leave a gaping hole in the Saints' offense, but the win-now franchise is short on cap space. They also have a plug-and-play backup on the roster in Latavius Murray. This one could actually get interesting. 
 

SOURCE: Josina Anderson on Twitter 

Sep 1, 2020, 4:18 PM ET

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Charles Robinson @CharlesRobinson

On the Alvin Kamara situation with the #Saints, I'm told that right now, the team is comfortable making him a top 5 paid RB ($12+ mil per season). But Kamara's number is pushing more toward the #Panthers' Christian McCaffrey extension ($16+ mil per). That's a pretty wide chasm.
 

https://twitter.com/charlesrobinson/status/1300895620962676736?s=21


 

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Yahoo's Charles Robinson reports contract-year Alvin Kamara is "pushing" toward Christian McCaffrey money in long-term talks ($16 million per season), while the Saints are offering in the $12 million range. 

Per Robinson, the Saints are "comfortable" in the $12 million range, which is top-five money. 

https://twitter.com/CharlesRobinson/status/1300895620962676736

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The Athletic's Jeff Duncan reports the Saints' "first option" is to re-sign Alvin Kamara, but that they will seek a first-round pick in trade talks if an accord cannot be reached. 

There has been a tidal wave of Kamara information in the past hour, with the Saints leaking their trade willingness and Kamara directly saying he is not holding out or seeking a trade. In extension talks, the divide in average annual value appears to be $4 million, with Kamara aiming for roughly $16 million and the Saints hoping to remain in the $12 million range. A trade is hard to envision for a franchise dying to hoist another Lombardi, but sometimes wells simply become too poisoned. Stay tuned. 

SOURCE: Jeff Duncan on Twitter 

Sep 1, 2020, 5:13 PM ET

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2 hours ago, Tool said:

Or one. He almost retired this year.


I haven’t seen anything where he said he almost retired. If anything he seems to be the old QB who has the desire and potential to play the longest, it’s between he and Brady. Ben seemed like he almost retired. Rivers almost as well. But I must have missed the stuff with Brees if that happened. 

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4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I just read that they’re only $4 million apart. Sounds kind of silly. Alvin wants 16… The Saints want to pay 12… Give the man 14 and call it a day. :shrug: 

My guess is it's the length of the contract that's the bigger issue.

Do anyone really see Kamara worth 14 million in 2-3 years without Brees throwing to him? Kind of like Ekeler w/o Rivers or James White w/o Brady.

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3 minutes ago, Stoneworker said:

My guess is it's the length of the contract that's the bigger issue.

Do anyone really see Kamara worth 14 million in 2-3 years without Brees throwing to him? Kind of like Ekeler w/o Rivers or James White w/o Brady.

It may especially be worth it to their team if they lose Brees. 

that’s when you need Kamara more than ever. 

It seems to me the Saints want him but not for a long haul, likely due to Injury concerns. It’s a lot of $ to sink into a dude who splits carries & just had a bit of an injury riddled season.

But yeah - when Brees moves on, they’ll need Kamara more than ever. Depends if they believe they still have a window to compete without Brees of course, but you’d have to figure with Thomas & Kamara and a very solid defense they’re going to do pretty well, even with a lesser QB.

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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8 minutes ago, Stoneworker said:

My guess is it's the length of the contract that's the bigger issue.

Do anyone really see Kamara worth 14 million in 2-3 years without Brees throwing to him? Kind of like Ekeler w/o Rivers or James White w/o Brady.

Have you seen Ekeler play without Rivers and/or White without Brady? Game script usually favors pass catching backs.

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1 hour ago, Blackbear said:

Have you seen Ekeler play without Rivers and/or White without Brady? Game script usually favors pass catching backs.

Are you suggesting that Ekeler will be as productive with Taylor/Herbert and/or that White will be as productive with Newton/Stidham? I don't expect that. I don't expect it to be particularly close for Ekeler.

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1 hour ago, fruity pebbles said:

The contract offers from both sides make sense though. Kamara wants to be paid the same as CMac’s 16 per and the Saints want to give him the same as Mixon just got at 12 per. I love Alvin but he’s not McCaffrey. He probably should be in that 12-13 range.

Kamara is an idiot if he passes up $12M/year. I know there are many other details (guarantees, etc.), just saying, the Gordon fiasco should be a lesson for all RBs in this situation.

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