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D'Onta Foreman RB Atlanta Falcons


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I don't think the game script for Texans game is every going to be better than this for running and he still looks to be on the back end of a committee. Barring Miller injury I don't see him having any real value this year. Texans are bad but Dalton was worse tonight. Texans are going to be blown out a lot this year and Freeman doesn't look like much of a receiver.

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8 minutes ago, gradin123 said:

I don't think the game script for Texans game is every going to be better than this for running and he still looks to be on the back end of a committee. Barring Miller injury I don't see him having any real value this year. Texans are bad but Dalton was worse tonight. Texans are going to be blown out a lot this year and Freeman doesn't look like much of a receiver.

 

 I pretty much agree.

I only have Lamar Miller in a single league this year, but I quickly got D'Onta Foreman as insurance. I think he is worth holding on to, in the event of injury.

Bill O'Brien and gang simply like to run, and having a young QB should also help. I know Miller isn't the flashy guy people were hoping he might turn out to be, but I see no problem with him as a high volume RB2 (low end??).

Getting D'Onta Foreman was automatic for me.  I'm not sold on him putting up gaudy numbers, but if he gets the job, I can see more of the same, run run run, high volume  and dependable RB2 workload-ish numbers.

 

 

 TZM

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Just now, Alex P Keaton said:

Miller looked better in the 2nd half than Foreman

Foreman looked slow and big - like a goal-line guy. Miller looked a lot faster and was squeezing through small holes for some chunk gains. Miller was also far more involved in the passing game (even though he only caught a few balls he was still running a lot of check down routes). 

Foreman is looking like a low-upside handcuff in that offense at this point but that's about it - and that's where he was drafted.

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1 minute ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Miller looked better in the 2nd half than Foreman

I agree.  Foreman looked way better on his first few carries but Miller looked better in the 2nd half (and probably overall).  Either way, it looks like it's going to be RBBC unless someone gets hurt.

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Foreman did well on his first carry, but afterward sort of pedestrian. Without the physical talent, Miller has much better vision and all around positional savvy. Fat boy showed enough to carve a role in short-yardage and goal line situations, but he won't take-over as the Texans feature back this season. 

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28 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Foreman did well on his first carry, but afterward sort of pedestrian. Without the physical talent, Miller has much better vision and all around positional savvy. Fat boy showed enough to carve a role in short-yardage and goal line situations, but he won't take-over as the Texans feature back this season. 

Lamaar Miller owner?

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38 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Foreman did well on his first carry, but afterward sort of pedestrian. Without the physical talent, Miller has much better vision and all around positional savvy. Fat boy showed enough to carve a role in short-yardage and goal line situations, but he won't take-over as the Texans feature back this season. 

I own Miller and Foreman as a handcuff. Not excited about how this situation might play out because neither might be very valuable but it seemed to me that Foreman may already have that short yardage goal line role and will probably be given a series or two each half as well. 

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22 minutes ago, Warhogs said:

I own Miller and Foreman as a handcuff. Not excited about how this situation might play out because neither might be very valuable but it seemed to me that Foreman may already have that short yardage goal line role and will probably be given a series or two each half as well. 

Miller had 17 and 18 carries week 1 and 2. Maybe he's on a cap. With a rookie QB, you've gotta think O'Brien will run the ball a lot. Last night they ran 30 times. Plenty to go around. 

As for as a handcuff, Foreman might not make much of one. Methinks this will be even more RBBC if Miller gets hurt, with Ervin assuming the pass catching duties. :2cents:

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30 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Miller had 17 and 18 carries week 1 and 2. Maybe he's on a cap.

The Dolphins certainly had a snap count type limit for Miller to much frustration of fatasy owners and Dolphins fans when he was playing well. The Texans didn't really do that with him last season, but after evaluating his performance, they decided in the offseason to limit his touches somewhat from the season before. That less opportunities should maximize the quality of the plays he does get, but the intent to keep Miller fresher by using another RB more.

The Texans do run the ball a lot though, and why there is room for both RB to have decent opportunity.

The Texans have averaged 493 rushing attempts per season over the last 3 years. Averaging 30 rushing attempts per game. A defense that generally supports them running the ball later into games.

With them starting a rookie QB? I would expect them to run the ball more because of that. Anticipating that this is what would happen at some point this season, didn't take long.

Edited by Biabreakable
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22 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

The Dolphins certainly had a snap count type limit for Miller to much frustration of fatasy owners and Dolphins fans when he was playing well. The Texans didn't really do that with him last season, but after evaluating his performance, they decided in the offseason to limit his touches somewhat from the season before. That less opportunities should maximize the quality of the plays he does get, but the intent to keep Miller fresher by using another RB more.

The Texans do run the ball a lot though, and why there is room for both RB to have decent opportunity.

The Texans have averaged 493 rushing attempts per season over the last 3 years. Averaging 30 rushing attempts per game. A defense that generally supports them running the ball later into games.

With them starting a rookie QB? I would expect them to run the ball more because of that. Anticipating that this is what would happen at some point this season, didn't take long.

The funny thing about this is that it seems pretty obvious that the o-line is a big part of the problem since both baacks were <4.0 ypc and they were routinely getting met at the LOS if not in the backfield.

I have wondered if the criticism of Miller for his yards after contact might be a bit misplaced. Meeting first contact in the hole or in the backfield is very different than meeting contact at speed or on the backside of the hole.

It's difficult to draw much from a sample size of a couple of carries.  But 30 carries between them and what they were able to muster last night starts to tell a story.  While Miller isn't special like I had hoped he might be as a rookie, he wouldn't be the first back in NFL history to be fairly dependent on competent blocking either. 

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

The Dolphins certainly had a snap count type limit for Miller to much frustration of fatasy owners and Dolphins fans when he was playing well. The Texans didn't really do that with him last season, but after evaluating his performance, they decided in the offseason to limit his touches somewhat from the season before. That less opportunities should maximize the quality of the plays he does get, but the intent to keep Miller fresher by using another RB more.

The Texans do run the ball a lot though, and why there is room for both RB to have decent opportunity.

The Texans have averaged 493 rushing attempts per season over the last 3 years. Averaging 30 rushing attempts per game. A defense that generally supports them running the ball later into games.

With them starting a rookie QB? I would expect them to run the ball more because of that. Anticipating that this is what would happen at some point this season, didn't take long.

So Miller has a cap of 288 carries for a full season based on the first 2 weeks. Well he probably doesn't get 17 carries every game, only that's about the most he'll get. Sort of limits his upside. Then again, when the Texans get behind and have to pass Miller still gets on the field but splits with Ervin. The fantasy hate for Miller confounds the rational mind. He's a high-floor, low-ceiling RB2, even a little better in PPR.

As for fatty, since this is his thread after all, he'll make a much riskier play as he depends on a favorable match-up and/or game script. I haven't seen him on a pass play yet. Strictly redraft, one holds him in case of injury, in which case much better options exist: Brieda, Jamaal Williams, Conner, ect. 

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A cap of 288 rushing attempts?

Based on the use so far this season Miller has 17.5 rushing attempts per game so 280 attempts over 16 games.

In 2016 Miller had 19.1 rushing attempts per game in 14 games, which would pace to 306 attempts over 16 games. This is what they said they wanted to reduce.

If we go back to 2014 the Texans had Arian Foster who had 260 rushing attempts in 13 games, which is 20 per game, similar to what they gave Miller last season, but after the season they said they wanted to scale this back. Miller did miss two games last year after only missing one game from his previous three seasons, when he was not used as much as a runner, but was used more as a receiver than he was in 2016 with the Texans.

In Millers previous 3 seasons with Miami he averaged 196 rushing attempts only missing one game.

There is sport science and things related to these decisions, at least for the Dolphins they were, and from what I read awhile back, was part of the decision to reduce Millers carries somewhat from what they were giving him last year.

Maybe that just means 17 rushing attempts per game as you say, or maybe it means less than that. Too soon to know. I would expect Foreman to continue getting better and push for more opportunities as the season goes on.

Tyler Ervin did play 27 snaps (41%) which was 10 more than Foreman in the game. His use as a receiver cuts into Millers opportunities there. Miller was only targeted 2.9 times per game last year with the Texans. With Miami he was getting 3 targets per game, about the same. Ervin has 10 targets so far, 5 in each game. He wasn't really part of the picture last season.

Anyhow I am not sure what the ideal number of touches is for Miller and anything more specific than they said they wanted to reduce some of his workload. Based on how much they have used him over two games, 17.5 may be that slight reduction, or maybe it will be less than that later on in the season. Your guess is as good as mine there.

It would make sense to me to use Miller as a receiver more than they do and a bit less as a runner, just to try to increase the efficiency of his opportunities, but they seem to prefer Ervin in a specialized role for that instead.

 

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8 hours ago, Weebs210 said:

Miller is atrocious and only a matter of time until he is the 3rd down back.

When you say stuff like “Miller is beyond trash” and “Miller is atrocious” it’s pretty much impossible to take you seriously. 

Lamar isn’t an elite RB1 as he was being billed last year but do you think the fantastic seasons he had in Miami happened by accident? He’s a more than solid player.  Watch what’s actually happening on the field instead of reacting emotionally.  First, defenses are jamming the box and daring Watson to throw with incredibly thin coverages that you almost never see in the NFL.  Second, it doesn’t appear that Watson is being trusted to audible out of bad run plays or knows when to do it, because both of the Texans RBs were getting run right into the teeth of run blitzes repeatedly.  Also the o-line is a mess. I’m not saying Lamar is Bo Jackson, but any running back is going to take a major hit in production when playing under these circumstances.

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14 minutes ago, electric Ape said:

When you say stuff like “Miller is beyond trash” and “Miller is atrocious” it’s pretty much impossible to take you seriously. 

Lamar isn’t an elite RB1 as he was being billed last year but do you think the fantastic seasons he had in Miami happened by accident? He’s a more than solid player.  Watch what’s actually happening on the field instead of reacting emotionally.  First, defenses are jamming the box and daring Watson to throw with incredibly thin coverages that you almost never see in the NFL.  Second, it doesn’t appear that Watson is being trusted to audible out of bad run plays or knows when to do it, because both of the Texans RBs were getting run right into the teeth of run blitzes repeatedly.  Also the o-line is a mess. I’m not saying Lamar is Bo Jackson, but any running back is going to take a major hit in production when playing under these circumstances.

As a Texans fan who has watched every snap Miller has taken with the Texans. Miller is terrible and does not look anything like he did with Miami. Goes down to arm tackles. It's beyond pathetic.

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20 minutes ago, Weebs210 said:

As a Texans fan who has watched every snap Miller has taken with the Texans. Miller is terrible and does not look anything like he did with Miami. Goes down to arm tackles. It's beyond pathetic.

If atrocious is the word you use to describe Lamar Miller, what word would you use for Brock Osweiler last season? :)

I personally think that Miller has found himself in some close to “worst case” offensive situations in Houston and if the other pieces of the offense were even average you’d have a higher opinion of him.  I will concede this though: he’s taken some wear and tear over the years and doesn’t seem as explosive as he was earlier in his career. The Houston version of Miller doesn’t seem to bust off big plays as often as the Miami version did although some of that is probably not his fault.

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11 minutes ago, electric Ape said:

If atrocious is the word you use to describe Lamar Miller, what word would you use for Brock Osweiler last season? :)

I personally think that Miller has found himself in some close to “worst case” offensive situations in Houston and if the other pieces of the offense were even average you’d have a higher opinion of him.  I will concede this though: he’s taken some wear and tear over the years and doesn’t seem as explosive as he was earlier in his career. The Houston version of Miller doesn’t seem to bust off big plays as often as the Miami version did although some of that is probably not his fault.

Lamar Miller is most suited for a zone blocking scheme.   Miami used this under Philbin's regime and also under Gase.    Miller would've been perfect for Gibb's old Texan scheme that allowed backs like Steve Slaton to have success.  

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Foreman came up slow after one of his inside rushes last week. He looked completely gassed to me to be honest. I'm waiting for the coaches film to go up so I can take a look at it and record it.

An interesting stat: 32 of Foreman's 40 yards last night came after contact. This is where he has a very clear edge over Miller. Miller averaged 1.3 yards after contact last year which was good for 3rd worst.

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I am not a big Miller fan as a #1 RB (especially with a decent contract) but I do think he could turn into an excellent third down/all purpose RB...he reminds me of Kevin Faulk...he is not a quit a legit starter but should be a key piece of an offense...he can be effective in all areas of the game and can start in a pinch but he is not the answer as far as being the primary ball-carrier...especially on an offense that wants to run in a little bit of an old school way...I think once expectations change for him and he is viewed a little differently he will have a chance to thrive...

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2 minutes ago, SameSongNDance said:

Foreman came up slow after one of his inside rushes last week. He looked completely gassed to me to be honest. I'm waiting for the coaches film to go up so I can take a look at it and record it.

An interesting stat: 32 of Foreman's 40 yards last night came after contact. This is where he has a very clear edge over Miller. Miller averaged 1.3 yards after contact last year which was good for 3rd worst.

The one thing I really liked about Foreman was his footwork...his feet were far more nimble than I expected...I thought there was some real athleticism there for his size...he is still pretty raw but if his head is on straight and he works hard he could turn into a high-quality RB...what is the scouting report/rumor-mill on him characterwise?

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2 hours ago, Boston said:

I am not a big Miller fan as a #1 RB (especially with a decent contract) but I do think he could turn into an excellent third down/all purpose RB...he reminds me of Kevin Faulk...he is not a quit a legit starter but should be a key piece of an offense...he can be effective in all areas of the game and can start in a pinch but he is not the answer as far as being the primary ball-carrier...especially on an offense that wants to run in a little bit of an old school way...I think once expectations change for him and he is viewed a little differently he will have a chance to thrive...

He doesn't remind me of Kevin Faulk at all.  Why do you say that?

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3 hours ago, electric Ape said:

The Houston version of Miller doesn’t seem to bust off big plays as often as the Miami version did although some of that is probably not his fault.

Or ever, really.  He has one 40+ yard play since joining the Texans and that was a 45 yarder that did not go for a TD.

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2 hours ago, Alex P Keaton said:

He doesn't remind me of Kevin Faulk at all.  Why do you say that?

When Faulk came into the NFL he was projected to be a legit starter...he put up big numbers at LSU and the Pats used a second-rounder on him...right from the beginning you could tell he wasn't going to become one...there was just something missing...once he turned into a third down back he became real effective in real football (not so much fantasy) and made a ton of big plays in some real big games...I think Miller is better suited for that role as well...he's an Ok starter (much better than Faulk was) but I think he would thrive in more of a Faulk-type of role...I think he would also have much better fantasy value then Faulk in that role as I think he could put up some nice stats... 

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2 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I just don't think he has value in redraft. Splitting time, hasn't shown to be a pass catcher, pathetic offense. Anyone disagree?

Yes I disagree.

It is only week two of the regular season. Foreman went from only having one carry in the first game to 12 attempts in the second game.

Foreman had 17 snaps and 12 rushing attempts. That is a high amount of opportunity for such little playing time.

I would expect his playing time to increase as the season goes on and the coaches become more comfortable with him in the game plan.

Last year Alfred Blue had 100 rushing attempts with Miller getting 19 per game. I can see Foreman earning 150 rushing attempts by the end of the year even if Miller remains the starter. Foreman can score TDs.

If Miller is injured or ineffective then that opens the door for Foreman to possibly do more.

Not saying anyone is going to start Foreman soon, but he certainly could have value in redraft and I think it is too soon to say otherwise, especially when we have seen Foreman get some opportunity already.

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  • 5 weeks later...
44 minutes ago, Banger said:

Didn't get to see the game today but looks like he was much more productive than Miller?  Changing of the guard or just situation?

Not really.  Both of them only gained 1-2 yards on 90% of their carries.  The run that Foreman broke went for longer though, there was no one within a country mile of him once he got through the hole.

Once the Texans went up early, there just weren't many holes for them to go through.  He looks pretty capable, but don't let the stat line convince you there's a major workload change coming.

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I've stashed Foreman in a few leagues (expecting a breakout)... not quite happening yet. Really want to keep him on my rosters, but that might be tough through all the byes coming up. He's a tough/physical runner, but O'Brien seems keen on giving Miller the lion-share of the work. 

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Lamar Miller played on 44 offensive snaps (67%) 15 rushing attempts 41 yards (2.7 ypc) 4 targets 3 receptions 40 yards

D'Onta Foreman played on 23 offensive snaps (35%) 12 rushing attempts 59 yards (4.9 ypc) long of 39 yards 

This looks like there was some overlap where both players were on the field for one or two plays.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Quote

 

Texans coach Bill O'Brien said D'Onta Foreman's demotion was not because he skipped practice Friday.

 

Foreman skipped practice along with DeAndre Hopkins on Friday after team owner Bob McNair's "inmates" comment came to light. Hopkins went on to have a career day in Seattle, but Foreman was limited to just one snap and took a clear backseat to Alfred Blue in the backup job. O'Brien said the demotion was because Blue had been practicing better, and Foreman also said the lack of playing time had nothing to do with him skipping Friday

 

I find it hard to believe a guy who was getting double digit carries and doing well weekly only played ONE SNAP... and it was not related to him walking out on practice. Texans could've used him late in Seattle.

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hmm

Blue played 11 offensive snaps 5 rushing attempts 21 yards

Foreman has averaged 18 offensive snaps week 2-7 before only having one in week 8. He has averaged 9.8 rushing attempts during this time frame and averaged 40.6 yards per game.

So what they did with Blue was about half of what they have been doing with Foreman. If this were a result of Blue practicing better, then why didn't he get similar opportunity or be as effective?

I didn't even mention Foremans 3 receptions for 68 yards. Foreman is clearly the more explosive player and most coaches want big plays like this because it helps them win games. Especially when you are only giving the player a handful of opportunities a game.

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18 minutes ago, zamboni said:

O'Brien said it was due to Blue having performed better at practice - not Foreman skipping practice on Friday - but I call BS on that. 

Agreed.

I guess we will just have to see what the Texans do next week. To me this seems like punishment for skipping practice that they couldn't afford to do with Hopkins.

Call me crazy but what the players do in the games seems more important than what they do in practice, although practice is of course also important.

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3 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Agreed.

I guess we will just have to see what the Texans do next week. To me this seems like punishment for skipping practice that they couldn't afford to do with Hopkins.

Call me crazy but what the players do in the games seems more important than what they do in practice, although practice is of course also important.

True, although I don't think it was just missing one practice. Guys miss practice due to injuries all the time. It was probably a message from McNair, if I had to guess.

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As an outsider it seems a bit like cutting off your own nose to spite the face.

Obviously Blue practiced better than Foreman who did not participate on Friday.

Blue didn't have any offensive snaps since game four against the Titans where he had 4. Foreman had 13 offensive snaps in that game. Blue has played extensively on special teams in every game since week 4. Blue did not play at all prior to this.

As a rookie practice is more important for Foreman than it is for veteran players.

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2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

hmm

Blue played 11 offensive snaps 5 rushing attempts 21 yards

Foreman has averaged 18 offensive snaps week 2-7 before only having one in week 8. He has averaged 9.8 rushing attempts during this time frame and averaged 40.6 yards per game.

So what they did with Blue was about half of what they have been doing with Foreman. If this were a result of Blue practicing better, then why didn't he get similar opportunity or be as effective?

I didn't even mention Foremans 3 receptions for 68 yards. Foreman is clearly the more explosive player and most coaches want big plays like this because it helps them win games. Especially when you are only giving the player a handful of opportunities a game.

Foreman's receiving stats are a bit of a mirage. He gained tons of yards on a couple of completely blown coverages that any RB would have picked up. 

His work between the tackles on the other hand has been pretty impressive, but not better than Miller's even though many on these boards seem to think so

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1 minute ago, electric Ape said:

Foreman's receiving stats are a bit of a mirage. He gained tons of yards on a couple of completely blown coverages that any RB would have picked up. 

His work between the tackles on the other hand has been pretty impressive, but not better than Miller's even though many on these boards seem to think so

:shrug: Foreman is better than Blue though right?

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  • Biabreakable changed the title to D'Onta Foreman RB Atlanta Falcons

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