Jones' success was never based on his speed, it was his elite acceleration + decisiveness which allowed him to break off big runs in college. His skill in the open field doesn't hurt in that regard.
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RB Jamaal Williams, NO (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter SaintsInDome2006
- Start date
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
cloppbeast
Footballguy
zamboni
Footballguy
Agreed, although that doesn't necessarily make him feature back material. They may just decide to use him in spots, with Williams doing the heavy lifting/moving the chains.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Williams is a noticeably better interior runner and blocker. Jones is noticeably more explosive and better in space.
Throw in Montgomery and I don't think any single back gets more than 1/2 the total touches between the three of them, barring injury or fumble-itis. Both sophomores are worth taking a chance on in case they separate from the, um, pack, and a 2nd rounder is a reasonable price to pay, but don't roster them as any more than a RB3/4, imo.
Throw in Montgomery and I don't think any single back gets more than 1/2 the total touches between the three of them, barring injury or fumble-itis. Both sophomores are worth taking a chance on in case they separate from the, um, pack, and a 2nd rounder is a reasonable price to pay, but don't roster them as any more than a RB3/4, imo.
I thought Jones was the better runner and Williams the better pass catcher. I felt Williams ran harder but found more contact, maybe had worse vision. If they came into the year on equal footing, I’d bet on Jones.
But they don’t come in equal. On the Jones side, he has more efficient running and a vote from Rodgers. On Williams’s side, we have three things. First, Williams ended the year with the job, that matters. Second, Williams’s efficiency was almost certainly impacted by having Huntley as his QB, he wasn’t given a fair shake and still produced. Third, Jones still has an outstanding marijuana dui that could lead to a suspension. If it does, Williams starts with the job and may never let go
But they don’t come in equal. On the Jones side, he has more efficient running and a vote from Rodgers. On Williams’s side, we have three things. First, Williams ended the year with the job, that matters. Second, Williams’s efficiency was almost certainly impacted by having Huntley as his QB, he wasn’t given a fair shake and still produced. Third, Jones still has an outstanding marijuana dui that could lead to a suspension. If it does, Williams starts with the job and may never let go
Biabreakable
Footballguy
dmac37
Footballguy
I understand Jones did not catch many passes last year. Is this due to the fact that he is not that good of a pass catcher or just the way it shook out during his limited action last year? It seems like his burst and open field moves would be suited as a pass catching RB. Did he do much receiving in college?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
It was talked about last year either here or in the Aaron Jones thread. I do not recall the source off the top of my head, but there was a source that rated him very highly as a receiver. IIRC this source considered him the best receiving RB of the 2017 draft class. Not that I agree with that in a draft class that had Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara. but Jones was a good receiver at the college level.
He did have 30 receptions in 2014 75% catch rate 9.8 yards per reception 7.5 yards per target 3 receiving TD. He was injured and only played in two games 2015. In 2016 he has 28 receptions 233 yards and again 3 TD in 12 games.
He is a decent receiver.
He did not have good numbers as a receiver as a rookie with the Packers however. 18 targets 9 receptions 22 yards. 2.4 yards per reception nothing to write home about.
The thing is that the Packers have Ty Montgommery who is a hybrid RB/WR and I see Montgomery in more direct competition for playing time and in a receiver role as well. He is also a decent to good receiver.
Jamaal Williams put up better receiving numbers and seems better suited to pass protection, which can lead to more offensive snaps, which can lead to more opportunities as a receiver.
None of this is settled yet. I still like Aaron Jones a bit more than Williams, but its close and it could go either way, both ways (AJ and JW splitting) or 3 ways (AJ JW TM splitting).
I own Montgomery and Williams. I do not own Jones.
I don't know how anyone could have watched the Packers last year and come away thinking that Williams was better than Jones. I took Williams at 2.01 last year and held my nose while doing it, because he looked awful in preseason and the talk was already that Jones looked better, but Williams was still supposedly the #2 at the time. Admittedly, Williams improved during the season and finished solidly, but Jones looked much better in the games, right down to the game where Williams carried the entire load, only to have Jones end it with 1 carry for the game-winning 20-yard TD.
I also don't get the 1A talk. Montgomery is the #1 until he gets hurt. I would think that, pass protection etc. aside, Jones will then get the shot ahead of Williams.
I don't know how anyone could have watched the Packers last year and come away thinking that Williams was better than Jones. I took Williams at 2.01 last year and held my nose while doing it, because he looked awful in preseason and the talk was already that Jones looked better, but Williams was still supposedly the #2 at the time. Admittedly, Williams improved during the season and finished solidly, but Jones looked much better in the games, right down to the game where Williams carried the entire load, only to have Jones end it with 1 carry for the game-winning 20-yard TD.
I also don't get the 1A talk. Montgomery is the #1 until he gets hurt. I would think that, pass protection etc. aside, Jones will then get the shot ahead of Williams.
dmac37
Footballguy
I have no skin in the game really, and I know one play means little, but every time I read a comment about Jones' receiving ability this play just always pops in my head.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTxyjUOIC0I
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTxyjUOIC0I
bostonfred
Footballguy
Here's what we know
- Williams was drafted earlier
- Williams was the first running back in the game when Montgomery went down
- Williams got more carries when the two played together
- in one game, Williams got every carry until he needed a breather and Jones came in for a single run which went for a touchdown
- the consensus is that Williams has a better all around skillset, but Jones is a more explosive runner
That tells me all I need to know. Unless something changes, Williams is the starter, Jones is the change of pace back.
The fantasy football community always has a hard time accepting this, but the change of pace guy usually has a higher ypc than the starter. It's really, really common. Yet whenever there's a hint of controversy in a backfield, the armchair gms immediately point to yards per carry and use weird stats like number of 15 yard runs per carry to justify why their guy should be the lead back.
This isn't Madden. Real coaches like their main back to be a steady Eddie. They like manageable third downs. They like pass protection. They also like explosiveness, and they tend to bring that guy in when they need a big play.
- Williams was drafted earlier
- Williams was the first running back in the game when Montgomery went down
- Williams got more carries when the two played together
- in one game, Williams got every carry until he needed a breather and Jones came in for a single run which went for a touchdown
- the consensus is that Williams has a better all around skillset, but Jones is a more explosive runner
That tells me all I need to know. Unless something changes, Williams is the starter, Jones is the change of pace back.
The fantasy football community always has a hard time accepting this, but the change of pace guy usually has a higher ypc than the starter. It's really, really common. Yet whenever there's a hint of controversy in a backfield, the armchair gms immediately point to yards per carry and use weird stats like number of 15 yard runs per carry to justify why their guy should be the lead back.
This isn't Madden. Real coaches like their main back to be a steady Eddie. They like manageable third downs. They like pass protection. They also like explosiveness, and they tend to bring that guy in when they need a big play.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
No you use the number of 15 yard carries to show just how awful this guy was last season. He basically admitted it himself this offseason when he said “I need to get faster”. Well no #### your dumpy JAG ### can’t do what a normal NFL RB is meant to do. Ignore at your own peril. TyMont and Aaron Jones are the plays. If this guy was to get faster the whole narrative of him being the “pounding back” doubles down on the idiocy considering he was already around 215. So he’s going to be the same size as Aaron Jones and half as talented. Um, ok. Just silly narratives. The consensus is not “Williams has a better skill set” he doesnt. PERIOD. Hope all those pass blocking points serve you well next season.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
If they cared that much about pass blocking TyMont would have NEVER been the lead back shouldering the entire load last season.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
You may be right, but I don't know what gives you this much confidence. In weeks 13-16 when I think both backs were healthy (no?), Williams out carried Jones 61-11. Is that not a viable stat worth considering in trying to determine who will be the lead back for this same coaching staff this season?
If Jones was hurt during that period, that would change the point a bit but he had carries in all of those weeks. Week 13, when I know both backs were healthy the carries were 21-1.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Who says Jones was healthy? Season was a lost cause and you have a young explosive back coming off a knee injury that almost ended his year. They didn’t risk Rodgers after week 14 and they didnt risk Jones after week 14 either. Probably with good reason. In any case we’ll be finding out soon. As much as I dislike Williams if ADP’s stick to what they are right now I will be trying to grab all three GB backs in redraft this year and hedge my bet. Dynasty, I want absolutely nothing to do with Williams. A 212 lb back that says he needs to lose weight to become faster, oof. Every year I feel like I must be close to seeing it all and every year there is a new plodder with a hoard of defenders.
WagesOfZin
Footballguy
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Did this guy do something to personally offend you Bojang? Jeez man, dial it down about 10 notches.
Here's what I think, having watched the best games of each player (small sample size and all that, etc.).
Jones had success at breaking some long runs with good blocking and taking what was there. He wasn't amazingly elusive or dynamic, but he certainly wasn't a slouch either. Very quick through the hole and getting what the defense gave him, but isn't going to break a lot of tackles or drive for a ton of yards once the defense is on him. Got a lot of his yardage from designed outside runs and by breaking outside on designed inside runs. Solid COP guy. A little suspect in the receiving game, bobbled some catches (including the sideline grab linked above) and wasn't very productive as a whole.
Williams reminds me a lot of Kerryon Johnson in this draft class. Not stellar at any one thing, but good at basically everything. He shows better vision on inside runs and far better patience than Jones in letting his blocks develop and getting the reliable yardage. Where Jones is running at the designed gap full speed (which, when closed, means he hits a wall and has to try to bounce outside), Williams has more patience to let it open up again inside and take the 3-4 yards. Jones may sometimes get you 15 instead, but other times he's going to get you 0 or -1 on the bounce. Williams has much more functional strength as a runner, and will get you the tough short yardage play. Jones isn't getting them a TD there. Williams is obviously more trusted as a pass protector by the team, and appears to be a reliable, if unspectacular, receiver in the passing game.
All of that said, I know I'd rather invest in the guy that was
Here's what I think, having watched the best games of each player (small sample size and all that, etc.).
Jones had success at breaking some long runs with good blocking and taking what was there. He wasn't amazingly elusive or dynamic, but he certainly wasn't a slouch either. Very quick through the hole and getting what the defense gave him, but isn't going to break a lot of tackles or drive for a ton of yards once the defense is on him. Got a lot of his yardage from designed outside runs and by breaking outside on designed inside runs. Solid COP guy. A little suspect in the receiving game, bobbled some catches (including the sideline grab linked above) and wasn't very productive as a whole.
Williams reminds me a lot of Kerryon Johnson in this draft class. Not stellar at any one thing, but good at basically everything. He shows better vision on inside runs and far better patience than Jones in letting his blocks develop and getting the reliable yardage. Where Jones is running at the designed gap full speed (which, when closed, means he hits a wall and has to try to bounce outside), Williams has more patience to let it open up again inside and take the 3-4 yards. Jones may sometimes get you 15 instead, but other times he's going to get you 0 or -1 on the bounce. Williams has much more functional strength as a runner, and will get you the tough short yardage play. Jones isn't getting them a TD there. Williams is obviously more trusted as a pass protector by the team, and appears to be a reliable, if unspectacular, receiver in the passing game.
All of that said, I know I'd rather invest in the guy that was
- Drafted higher
- Received more work last year
- Is more trusted on third down
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I’ve posted on different occasions on this board multiple PFF articles that show there is no correlation between fantasy production and good pass blocking. If anyone can show otherwise using metrics and not just their gut and their eyes I would love to see it.
Streetduck
Footballguy
Agreed but it will get you more playing time which equates to more production. Don't need metrics to figure that out.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Melvin Gordon 3.9 ypc
Austin ekeler 5.5
Joe mixon 3.5
Gio Bernard 4.4
Fournette 3.9
Yeldon 5.2
David Johnson 2016 4.2
Kerwynn Williams 8.7
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Not a single one of those players had as bad of peripheral stats as Williams.
Williams created yards per carry: .67
League average per qualified back: 1.27
Williams juke rate: 14%
League average: 24.05%
Williams breakaway run rate: .7%
League average: 4.62%
Here’s Graham Barfield back before last years draft talking about how poor he was out of shotgun, yards created per attempt, runs that created >10 yards and even PASS BLOCKING for ####s and giggles.
Edit to add: I take it back as I remember a good friend tracked Gordon’s carries in 2016 and it was pretty awful for how many negative gains he had.
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
There is no correlation between playing time and good pass blocking. Prove it because I can post four links that say otherwise right now.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I’ll walk it back some and say “mimimal” correlation. If you’re high efficiency at carrying and/or catching the football, you play. That simple.
I really don't get the COP back argument. Jones was not a COP back; he carried the load before getting hurt.
In games when they carried the load (10+ carries):
Jones (4 games) 62 attempts for 346 yds (5.6 avg)
Williams (7 games) 120 attempts for 440 yds (3.7 avg)
In games when they were the "COP back" (less than 10 carries):
Jones (5 games) 16 attempts for 89 yds (5.6 avg)
Williams (6 games) 11 attempts for 34 yds (3.1 avg)
Let me say again that I own Williams. But Jones was quite clearly the better runner to me last year watching the games.
In games when they carried the load (10+ carries):
Jones (4 games) 62 attempts for 346 yds (5.6 avg)
Williams (7 games) 120 attempts for 440 yds (3.7 avg)
In games when they were the "COP back" (less than 10 carries):
Jones (5 games) 16 attempts for 89 yds (5.6 avg)
Williams (6 games) 11 attempts for 34 yds (3.1 avg)
Let me say again that I own Williams. But Jones was quite clearly the better runner to me last year watching the games.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
I suppose Rodgers is gonna throw the short passes to himself too so the running backs don't get any receptions
NeverEnough
Footballguy
He added a stipulation that if J Williams doesn't lead GB in carries this year I get his 2nd round pick next year
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
That is like an early/mid 3rd round pick in a traditional dynasty draft. No chance I sell Williams for any 3rd, even if I think the odds are that Jones would be the lead back (which I personally do not). IMO, upside that I would be wrong and Williams woudl be 1A on a likely potent offense is better than the upside of anyone that would be there at your pick.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Do you see any irony in implicitly calling out people as "idiots" in a post where you are equating the Packers holding out Aaron Rodgers to them holding out a fifth round rookie RB at the expense of their fourth round rookie RB?
As an outside observer who doesn't own either back in dynasty - and will likely not end up with either in re-draft - I'm not sure how anyone can speak definitively about which back will lead the way in Green Bay. I see positives and negatives for each back and you've made some valid points on Jones' side - but perhaps you should tone down the rhetoric a little under the guise of having a legit conversation for those that are really trying to figure it out.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
No, my 1.13 is more like a mid to late 2nd with the devy picks factored in. Also, you realize I'd be getting Williams & then his 2nd if that stipulation came true, right? I'm not trading JW away, I'm trying to get him
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ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
It’s essentially the 25th or 26th pick so yes, since your league is clearly more than a 12 team league it’s a 2nd. I was thinking about it from a self centered standpoint where I play in 12 team leagues, in which case it’s a 3rd. Totally my bad. You made a great trade in my opinion. As a Williams owner it would take at least a top 13 overall pick to get him from me, and that is accounting for the possibility that he may not be 1A. The upside is better for him than anyone after 1.13 in my opinion.
Truth be told, I probably wouldn’t trade him for less than 1.8, which I understand I would likely never get.
Truth be told, I probably wouldn’t trade him for less than 1.8, which I understand I would likely never get.
Streetduck
Footballguy
No he said "there is no correlation between fantasy production and good pass blocking" and I said it will get you more playing time, which in turn would yes lead to more production. But your picking pepper out of fly crap here.
Streetduck
Footballguy
Well lets see them then, I not above admitting I'm wrong but it sure seems to me that Williams is getting more playing time because he can protect Rogers better than Jones can.
shadrap
Footballguy
My bad. I thought you agreed that there was no correlation, and then said it will get you more playing time which would lead to more production (which, I believe would mean there would be a correlation).
Casting Couch
Footballguy
Thank you for this voice of reason. I've never seen a group get so gaga over a RB with a 3.6YPC, and one carry over 15 yards.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I am not "gaga" over Williams. I just watched the packers choose Williams over Jones every single time both were healthy and drew the obvious conclusion that they prefer Williams.
I understand why you like Jones better, and maybe the packers will change their minds and like him better for the same reasons. But that would be a departure from what they've been doing.
I don't understand why it's controversial to say that Williams is clearly the starter over Jones. They drafted him earlier, they brought him in first when Montgomery got hurt, and they gave him 18 carries a game the second half of the season while Jones got the crumbs.
It's also not that controversial for Jones supporters to call for them to change starters. You just don't seem to realize that that's what you're asking for.
Instead, Jones supporters - and I assume you're not a bojang alias - point to Jones's healthy rushing numbers with Rodgers and Williams's post injury rushing numbers with hundley as though it's an apples to apples comparison, and ignore the receiving and blocking aspects of the position.
You can't have it both ways - if Jones didn't start in November and December because he had been injured earlier in the year, then you can't constantly criticize Williams for his post injury numbers. Either you accept that Williams may be better than you're giving him credit for - and hamstring injuries are notorious for lingering and sapping deep speed which would explain why he was able to come back and why he wouldn't get many long runs - or you take a hard stance that of he's ready to play he's healthy, in which case you also accept that Jones took a back seat the second half of the season.
The case for Williams is that the packers seem likely to turn away from Montgomery as their starter, and Williams carried the load with 18 carries per game down the stretch and double digit carries every game, plus caught the ball well and was a solid pass protector which is critically important when you're playing with an elite quarterback like Rodgers.
The case for Jones is that, under ideal conditions, he ran well enough that despite his pass blocking and pass catching deficiencies, they should allow him to compete for a starting job that you feel he is likely to win.
That's a reasonable stance, and he might win that competition this off season. But when you think about it that way, it should be pretty clear that you're rooting for a relative long shot. Especially when you consider that Montgomery isn't even out of the picture.
Unfortunately, the entire premise of your argument is wrong. Therefore your conclusion is wrong. The Packers did not "choose Williams over Jones every single time."
As much as fantasy footballers want certainty in May, the only real conclusion is that no one knows who the starter will be...there was far too much noise last year and IMO all three RB's played well enough to see the field in a full-blown RBBC in 2018.
Here are the simple facts that completely refute what you "just watched."
On November 12, 2017 the Packers played the Bears and it was the only time all three Packers' RB's were healthy (since the first Montgomery injury).
Aaron Jones got the start and every touch in the 1st quarter. After Jones injured his knee, he was relieved not by Williams but by Ty Montgomery. When Montgomery aggravated his ribs and couldn't go any further, only then they turned to Jamaal Williams as the third RB option in that game, who carried 20 times (so it can be assumed he was healthy at the start).
From that point forward, Williams was the starter. But while Jones resumed play after a 2-week absence, the original diagnosis on his MCL sprain was 3-6 weeks...so it can be reasonably assumed he was not at full strength for the remainder of the season, therefore likely a major factor in why Williams was getting the starts over him.
Sources:
https://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2017/11/13/reports-packers-rb-aaron-jones-miss-3-6-weeks-mcl-injury/858906001/
http://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=400951559
bostonfred
Footballguy
Sure, you can assume Williams was "healthy" enough to physically run, but these aren't video game players, they're real human beings, and injuries aren't binary things where you're either hurt or you're not. He was still coming back from an injury that had caused him to miss two games and only get one carry in the previous game. There's no reason to think the packers believed Williams was 100% healthy going into that game - they used him when they needed him, and he performed well.
Of course, if you want to assume that playing means you're fully healthy, then Williams getting 61 carries to Jones 11 in weeks 13 to 16 would pretty strongly suggest that Williams had retaken the top spot on the depth chart. I don't think it's that lop sided, personally - I think Jones will get more than about 14% of the carries if they're both healthy.
Also I get the you were going for the big a ha there but maybe tone down the "the entire premise of your argument is wrong. Therefore your conclusion is wrong" stuff. It's ok to disagree respectfully.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Not sure this was really a Rodgers vs. Hundley thing for Jones. Jones started two games with Hundley as the QB and he went 30-172 for 5.7ypc in those two games.
Actually his numbers (given we're talking tiny sample size here) didn't change at all between the two QBs. In his two starts with Rodgers he was 32-174 for 5.4ypc.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
But didn't you just do the exact same thing the other way, labeling Williams the starter for the 2nd half of the year when Jones was similarly dinged up? As was mentioned above, Jones suffered a 6 week injury in week 10 that he started trying to play through after two weeks. He was actually listed as questionable on the injury report all the way through week 14 and then re-injured it in week 16.
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My apologies if stating facts supporting that both Jones and Montgomery played ahead of Williams in the Bears game...and therefore demonstrated that Williams is not clearly the starter and Jones the CoP back...gave the appearance of disrespect.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Well, he sweetened the deal. Now it's Williams & his 2019 2nd for my 1.13 this year
