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He was going to be the guy before he got hurt, he had the first crack before Jones. Now he is healthy and the guy up. They will have to activate Mays, but this is like the Morris McFadden situation. Cant expect a guy to just come in and get a bunch of carries over the guy who was active, regardless of our beliefs. I thought DMC would get the nod, guess their is a method to coaches madness sometimes after all.

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Here's what we know - Williams was drafted earlier - Williams was the first running back in the game when Montgomery went down - Williams got more carries when the two played together

Here are some Waldman clips for those of us who are not elite arm chair scouts and are willing to learn something. Warning: some of these plays will definitely make you  at people for calling him a pl

Great job out there today, guys. Each of us had more yards than Aaron Jones.

^^^ I like the DMC/Morris comparison (in terms of situation/opportunity). In both cases, the previously inactive guy is a threat to get hot and force an RBBC or even steal the show. Both situations are extremely fluid and provide siren song upside, if one of the four players grabs a lion's share. If you've been playing the RB bum wheel this season, this is both heaven and hell right here. Cheers.

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Waldman did his Gut Check on Williams this week. I had seen a few of his carries last week, but Waldman goes through a half-dozen or so & a pass block.

That game is a good example of why YPC is so deceiving, especially for one game. He played much more like the Jamaal Williams I remember scouting at BYU.

Whether he's getting more comfortable or has more confidence now, I don't know, but Williams was playing tight & running tentatively earlier in the season. Night & day difference last week.

Looks like Williams is starting to feel it. It'll be interesting to see if he can take the starting job from Monty.

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Still think you guys are all discussing the wrong RB ;) 

I've been right every step of the way thus far with regards to this RB situation, but I will go stand over here for now

I'm assuming (and, admittedly, may be off on my assumption) you are referring to Aaron Jones.  You were absolutely right on with him.  Seriously, kudos to you, I was not convinced until he had his chance and ran with it, pun intended :)

Having said that, the number one ability is, as they say, availability, and Jones is out for a few weeks.  The staff clearly liked what they saw of Williams' college tape and preseason work and now it appears he has his shot.  One place Williams seems to excel above Jones is pass pro.  This is a week to week league and if Williams plays lights out - even just really well - I find it hard to believe Jones has done enough to earn the Zeke/Bell treatment of "the job is yours no matter what when you get back"

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2 minutes ago, Longtucky Lemmings said:

I'm assuming (and, admittedly, may be off on my assumption) you are referring to Aaron Jones.  You were absolutely right on with him.  Seriously, kudos to you, I was not convinced until he had his chance and ran with it, pun intended :)

Having said that, the number one ability is, as they say, availability, and Jones is out for a few weeks.  The staff clearly liked what they saw of Williams' college tape and preseason work and now it appears he has his shot.  One place Williams seems to excel above Jones is pass pro.  This is a week to week league and if Williams plays lights out - even just really well - I find it hard to believe Jones has done enough to earn the Zeke/Bell treatment of "the job is yours no matter what when you get back"

Well, from Ty giving up to Jones, to Ty not being droppable following his bye. I won't sit here and say that I felt Jones would get hurt, but I just felt like Ty was not droppable froma fantasy perspective, and still think he belongs rostered. Even if Williams and Ty split carries, that makes Ty even more valuable IMO


With regards to the bolded, his preseason was awful. I've posted in the Jones thread several links that indicated GB had him above Jones to start the season soley because they invested a better draft pick into Williams, even though Jones and Mays outperformed Williams all preseason. 
 

I really liked Williams coming out of college but he plays so slow. He's a plodder. From what I saw this preseason, he just lacked the speed and agility (those "special qualities") that allows a RB to create more than what he's given. Williams takes what he's given and that's it. He went down so easily this preseason. He isn't a particularly fast RB. Most scouts agreed he was not a complete RB. In fact, when he was drafted it was theorized he'd be used as a compliment to Ty- taking the between the tackle work while Ty took the passing downs.

He was compared by most scouts to James Starks (yuck). And that's about what you can expect from him. Anyone thinking anything more is going to be sorely disappointed. We will likely see Mays get some action and I am willing to bet his thread is on page 1 all next week. Mays almost beat Jones out and at times looked like the best RB from their draft in the preseason. They kept FOUR RBs after the season because they did not want Mays to get away, and quite honestly he played his way onto the roster. 

Williams is JAG IMO and I'm glad he will have an opportunity to prove it. I hope I'm wrong, because that means GB has a plethora of talent at RB. Long term I don't see Williams taking the job away from anyone. As far as this season goes, Williams isn't saving anyone's season. If A-Rod wasn't hurt he'd have some decent value, but as log as Hundley is throwing the ball we might as well just look at GB as a fantasy wasteland. 

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Well, from Ty giving up to Jones, to Ty not being droppable following his bye. I won't sit here and say that I felt Jones would get hurt, but I just felt like Ty was not droppable froma fantasy perspective, and still think he belongs rostered. Even if Williams and Ty split carries, that makes Ty even more valuable IMO


With regards to the bolded, his preseason was awful. I've posted in the Jones thread several links that indicated GB had him above Jones to start the season soley because they invested a better draft pick into Williams, even though Jones and Mays outperformed Williams all preseason. 
 

I really liked Williams coming out of college but he plays so slow. He's a plodder. From what I saw this preseason, he just lacked the speed and agility (those "special qualities") that allows a RB to create more than what he's given. Williams takes what he's given and that's it. He went down so easily this preseason. He isn't a particularly fast RB. Most scouts agreed he was not a complete RB. In fact, when he was drafted it was theorized he'd be used as a compliment to Ty- taking the between the tackle work while Ty took the passing downs.

He was compared by most scouts to James Starks (yuck). And that's about what you can expect from him. Anyone thinking anything more is going to be sorely disappointed. We will likely see Mays get some action and I am willing to bet his thread is on page 1 all next week. Mays almost beat Jones out and at times looked like the best RB from their draft in the preseason. They kept FOUR RBs after the season because they did not want Mays to get away, and quite honestly he played his way onto the roster. 

Williams is JAG IMO and I'm glad he will have an opportunity to prove it. I hope I'm wrong, because that means GB has a plethora of talent at RB. Long term I don't see Williams taking the job away from anyone. As far as this season goes, Williams isn't saving anyone's season. If A-Rod wasn't hurt he'd have some decent value, but as log as Hundley is throwing the ball we might as well just look at GB as a fantasy wasteland. 

I don't disagree with any of this.  You've had some real lucid analysis of the GB backfield all season long and I appreciate your views.

All I'm saying is, IF (realizing this is a big IF) Williams puts it together these next few weeks, I believe this staff will not hesitate to ride his hot hand as long as they can.  Same applies to Ty, same applies to Mays.

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33 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Still think you guys are all discussing the wrong RB ;) 

I've been right every step of the way thus far with regards to this RB situation, but I will go stand over here for now

Don't pull a muscle there ;)  And to be fair, you weren't really right or wrong. You did call Aaron Jones but the coaching staff didn't agree with you. He was clearly third string. When the incumbent went down, Williams was first in the game but he quickly got hurt, so it was merely luck that won Jones the opportunity. Now the roles are reversed and Williams will get his shot, albeit in a much less desirable situation. Only time will tell which player is better suited for this offense, but in the meantime you get an "incomplete" rather than a self assessed "A+".

Jones had five games to showcase his skills, two of them with Rodgers occupying the defenses' attention. Jones put up two good rushing efforts (against Dallas and NO) and was a non-factor in the passing game for all five games. So even if he stayed healthy, it's not like he was crushing it. The Dallas game (with Rodgers) was really nice - consistent chunk gains. The NO game was padded by a 46 yard TD in which he made zero moves - just ran straight, untouched for 46 yards. I'm not saying "take away the long run" but I am saying to put it in context. A slow RB might not make that score, so credit his speed, but it's not like he had to make any eye popping moves to produce that run. So forgive me if I'm not going to crown him after that five game sample.

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Good luck with your plodder. Why people back players like this I’ll never understand? So you can attempt to justify your couch scouting? Look at the numbers. He’s a below 40th percentile athlete with some ok college production. He’s a backup level talent. If he produces it will be because of volume and any team worth a #### at self scouting will want to replace him as soon as possible.

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10 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

Good luck with your plodder. Why people back players like this I’ll never understand? So you can attempt to justify your couch scouting? Look at the numbers. He’s a below 40th percentile athlete with some ok college production. He’s a backup level talent. If he produces it will be because of volume and any team worth a #### at self scouting will want to replace him as soon as possible.

Burst and agility are the important numbers for RBs and I agree his numbers are not good, but you know who has worse burst and agility numbers than Jamaal? Dalvin Cook.

I can't speak for everyone else, but I'm no armchair scout. I use analytics, but for scouting/analysis I outsource that - thus the Gut Check article I linked on page 4. Jamaal's college production was stellar and Waldman's scouting report on him was extremely positive. I'm going to go with that rather than blindly following combine numbers. If combine numbers were all that mattered, then Chris Henry and Bishop Sankey would be pro bowlers. Why people act like combine numbers are the only way to assess talent, I'll never understand.:crazy:

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57 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

Good luck with your plodder. Why people back players like this I’ll never understand? So you can attempt to justify your couch scouting? Look at the numbers. He’s a below 40th percentile athlete with some ok college production. He’s a backup level talent. If he produces it will be because of volume and any team worth a #### at self scouting will want to replace him as soon as possible.

Ding Ding Ding. 

After seeing him this preseason he reminded me of any other backup plodder. Several Ted Thompson RB failures came to mind (Brandon Jackson for instance). No one special. Might get some volume and put up 40-60 yards, the occasional big gain maybe (blind squirrel). 

I honestly don't think he will be on the roster in 3 years. Jones might not work out long term, or Ty, but unless something changes with how Williams plays, it definitely won't be Williams. 

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Funny you mention Brandon Jackson, coincidentally in the same draft class as the aforementioned Chris Henry. Both players saw their projected draft position soar solely due to combine numbers! Once again proving the combine isn't everything.

I'm going to put this here for you guys one more time: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=gutcheck429

 

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Waldman loved Williams in the RSP, but he seemed to walk that back a few times on the Audible podcast, saying at one point he had Jones and Williams neck and neck as running backs with Jones the much better receiver, but thought Williams might pop sooner due to pass pro.

I align rather similarly with @FF Ninja in that I'm not great at scouting and prefer to see the metrics, but ALL the scouts raved about Jones as a receiver, so I don't see his lack of passing game involvement as a reason to knock him for the future.  I also see Williams as a pretty sub-par athlete that may struggle to produce consistently, or may always be looking over his shoulder as the team tries to replace him.  We've certainly seen worse athletes produce (Rob Kelly for one), but I prefer to bet on the other guys - in the immediate future, that means Mays.  Long term, I still believe in Jones.

 

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17 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

This is college tape from Waldman's piece but it's public domain so I think it's ok.

This is also on the www, every carry vs the Bears.

It's possible we haven't seen what Williams can do in the NFL yet.

Williams is much more dynamic than given credit for, but he was tight & tentative earlier in the season.

Finally started to show out a bit last week.

I'm curious to see what he can do the rest of the way.

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42 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

What I see here is a RB who is not very elusive as far as making defenders miss with quick cuts and change of direction ability. However Williams does hit holes pretty hard and gains yards after contact with consistency. He runs with good pad level and he has some burst to accelerate through the hole.

I don't think he is as good as Aaron Jones. He shows some toughness and is good enough to move the chains though. Several of these runs while not long gains are effective runs, converting 1st downs and gaining good enough yardage to keep the offense on schedule. He does step out of an ankle tackle attempt behind the line of scrimmage on one play. He shows good vision and spatial awareness. He hits the right holes when he has something to work with.

The one reception that he had out in space he catches the ball cleanly but his head fakes do not fool the defender at all. Several attempts to fake the defender out before going down to the tackle.

While I am not very impressed with his play against the Bears, I do think he is good enough to hold this job until Jones gets healthy. He does some nice work between the tackles.

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Probably the biggest issue I have with Jones is he's not nearly dynamic enough to overcome his lack of physicality.

Tough to be a feature back in the NFL if you have a difficult time breaking tackles UNLESS you're a home run hitter. Not talking about yards after contact. I'm referring to actually breaking tackles. Jones is neither real physical nor real dynamic. I don't like the combination. Jones reminds me a lot of Abdullah.

Williams has the most feature back potential, IMO. It's going to be interesting to see if he keeps improving as the season goes along. Williams got off to such a slow start, but seems to be putting it together.

 

 

 

 

 

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am I missing something? Dion Lewis is available in most leagues and hes a steady consistent performer in a top offense playing cheesy defenses and blowing them out. 

or you can take Williams who is the 3rd or 4th string rb in a bad offense with a bad oline and bad qb playing against a team with a playoff shot coming off a bye..and TM comes back in a week or so..again what am I missing that everyones rushing to get Williams?? 

take Dion and he'll save your season. 15 carries per game for a long time now. hes getting the volume.

if its for dynasty,  im pretty sure the best rb on the GB roster isnt yet on the GB roster.. its called the 2018 nfl draft.thats where theyll find one..niether jones or williams are anything more than fluff pieces ..

 

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12 minutes ago, Tanner9919 said:

am I missing something? Dion Lewis is available in most leagues and hes a steady consistent performer in a top offense playing cheesy defenses and blowing them out. 

or you can take Williams who is the 3rd or 4th string rb in a bad offense with a bad oline and bad qb playing against a team with a playoff shot coming off a bye..and TM comes back in a week or so..again what am I missing that everyones rushing to get Williams?? 

take Dion and he'll save your season. 15 carries per game for a long time now. hes getting the volume.

if its for dynasty,  im pretty sure the best rb on the GB roster isnt yet on the GB roster.. its called the 2018 nfl draft.thats where theyll find one..niether jones or williams are anything more than fluff pieces ..

 

I dont think Waldman has ever done a "fluff piece".  If you havent already, you should read this and look at the clips before coming so strong to the hoop.  Its been posted several times...doesnt seem like too many people are taking the time to look at it.  Waldman might be the best out there at breaking down and analyzing film on players.  He is the best that I know of.  This makes me want to definitely take a shot on Williams where I can get hm cheap.  Just read it and watch the clips, and keep in mind that the person sharing this information is truly one of the best in the biz.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=gutcheck429

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9 hours ago, ChuckLiddell said:

I dont think Waldman has ever done a "fluff piece".  If you havent already, you should read this and look at the clips before coming so strong to the hoop.  Its been posted several times...doesnt seem like too many people are taking the time to look at it.  Waldman might be the best out there at breaking down and analyzing film on players.  He is the best that I know of.  This makes me want to definitely take a shot on Williams where I can get hm cheap.  Just read it and watch the clips, and keep in mind that the person sharing this information is truly one of the best in the biz.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=gutcheck429

I am still not sold that he is in a good situation, but I will probably regret not burning my WW spot to pick him up. 

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9 hours ago, ChuckLiddell said:

I dont think Waldman has ever done a "fluff piece".  If you havent already, you should read this and look at the clips before coming so strong to the hoop.  Its been posted several times...doesnt seem like too many people are taking the time to look at it.  Waldman might be the best out there at breaking down and analyzing film on players.  He is the best that I know of.  This makes me want to definitely take a shot on Williams where I can get hm cheap.  Just read it and watch the clips, and keep in mind that the person sharing this information is truly one of the best in the biz.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=gutcheck429

This. I don't understand where all these armchair scouts get their confidence. I look at FF a few hours a week when my ADD dictates a break from work and I mostly watch red zone on Sunday. If I see a play, I see it once in real time maybe a second time in slo-mo if the broadcast decides to replay. Waldman has been making a living breaking down film and analyzing players for about two decades. This is his full time job and he's earned a reputation as one of the best. He watches plays over and over, looking for little details. Maybe I'm lazy or maybe I just know what I don't know and am comfortable with that.

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1 hour ago, jon_mx said:

I am still not sold that he is in a good situation, but I will probably regret not burning my WW spot to pick him up. 

Well, he looks like he is in a bad situation this season, but from a dynasty perspective he has an opportunity to stake his claim on the job going forward.  The situation changes quite a bit once 12 comes back which may even be later this season.  Optimistically, if Hundley can show some improvement in his overall game it may even pay dividends sooner.  Getting the opportunity is the first step, and that appears to be happening.

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10 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

am I missing something? Dion Lewis is available in most leagues and hes a steady consistent performer in a top offense playing cheesy defenses and blowing them out. 

or you can take Williams who is the 3rd or 4th string rb in a bad offense with a bad oline and bad qb playing against a team with a playoff shot coming off a bye..and TM comes back in a week or so..again what am I missing that everyones rushing to get Williams?? 

take Dion and he'll save your season. 15 carries per game for a long time now. hes getting the volume.

Dion has literally had 15 carries one time this season and is a nonfactor in the passing game. If you play PPR, you are basically praying for a TD because 13 carries @ 5ypc is still not a very impressive score in that format without a TD or a few receptions.

(Yes, I picked Dion up in a few leagues a while back. No, I can't start him with any confidence.)

11 hours ago, Football Jones said:

Probably the biggest issue I have with Jones is he's not nearly dynamic enough to overcome his lack of physicality.

Tough to be a feature back in the NFL if you have a difficult time breaking tackles UNLESS you're a home run hitter. Not talking about yards after contact. I'm referring to actually breaking tackles. Jones is neither real physical nor a home run hitter. I don't like the combination. Jones reminds me a lot of Abdullah.

Williams has the most feature back potential, IMO. It's going to be interesting to see if he keeps improving as the season goes along. Williams got off to such a slow start, but seems to be putting it together.

I'm picking nits here, but Abdullah is much more elusive than Jones. I get that you're not talking about yards after contact (because Abdullah is one of the best in the NFL at that), but to me I don't really care HOW a RB gets past a defender - they can either (1) elude them like Abdullah or (2) run right through them like Williams. As long as the result is the same, I'd think coaches will be happy.

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13 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

What I see here is a RB who is not very elusive as far as making defenders miss with quick cuts and change of direction ability. However Williams does hit holes pretty hard and gains yards after contact with consistency. He runs with good pad level and he has some burst to accelerate through the hole.

I don't think he is as good as Aaron Jones. He shows some toughness and is good enough to move the chains though. Several of these runs while not long gains are effective runs, converting 1st downs and gaining good enough yardage to keep the offense on schedule. He does step out of an ankle tackle attempt behind the line of scrimmage on one play. He shows good vision and spatial awareness. He hits the right holes when he has something to work with.

The one reception that he had out in space he catches the ball cleanly but his head fakes do not fool the defender at all. Several attempts to fake the defender out before going down to the tackle.

While I am not very impressed with his play against the Bears, I do think he is good enough to hold this job until Jones gets healthy. He does some nice work between the tackles.

I've admitted numerous times on this board that I don't consider myself much of a film guy (though I'm trying to learn).  I saw the same things as the bolded above.  He will hit the hole hard, and he seems hard to tackle, though NFL defenders are better at tackling guys than the college players are (so it's plausible to me that being hard to tackle without the elusiveness won't be as successful at the pro level).

All that said, he looked better in those carries against the Bears than any other time I've seen him.  I still don't think he's as good as Aaron Jones.  I don't think he's a long-term answer (and I primarily play in keeper and dynasty leagues), and I'm very curious to see what Mays can do.

My point the entire time has been that while Williams may be able to suffice as a grinder, it's completely plausible to me that Mays has more juice, and that will be evident as soon as he gets an opportunity.  The Packers weren't carrying 4 backs on their gameday roster, but they kept Mays on their 53 after being a 7th round pick.  That tells me they like him too, and drafting both Jones and Mays after Williams tells me that while they like Williams, they weren't sure he was a long term solution either.

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When I say he hits the holes hard, this is a trait that I think is connected to a players burst/acceleration. Part of it is related to pad level as well, he gets low when he is hitting the crease which helps with his forward momentum, this burst can help a RB to break tackles and gain yardage after contact. It is a combination of acceleration and winning leverage on contact.

Aaron Jones has good burst too, and I think is quicker, accelerates faster than Williams does, but I don't think he has as good pad level as Williams to turn that acceleration into power.

Burst is a word that I use to describe both of these things, but there are some differences here. Sometimes burst means a quick acceleration that can help a RB to clear the line of scrimmage and avoid tackles by not being where a defender expects them to be, causing a bad angle, the other kind of burst is when a RB will accelerate into contact, break tackles because of it, or if not at least gain yards after contact. Perhaps it would be good to find two different terms for this, instead of saying burst for both. Sometimes the burst is related to speed and acceleration, other times it is related to the player generating power.

Jamaal Williams did not show this in previous game with the Packers. As football jones mentions, he looked somewhat tentative, did not attack the defense in the same way as you see in the plays against the Bears. He certainly shows this when you are watching him in college games as well. What I see in his plays against the Bears looks more like what I saw from his plays in college.

The Bears are a pretty good run defense. Ranked 13th currently by football outsiders metrics.

As far as Mays I haven't watched him play so I can't really comment on that. The high jump numbers may point to him being able to produce good burst of either kind that I describe above, I just haven't seen him, so I can't really speak to that. I thought Andre Williams who also had good jump numbers would have good burst because of that, but that trait never really translated to the NFL level. I bring up Andre because I had higher expectations of him, and part of those expectations were related to the jump numbers. That ability never manifested at the NFL level and thus my skepticism of the jump metrics being a valid way of identifying burst in player prospects.

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12 hours ago, Football Jones said:

Probably the biggest issue I have with Jones is he's not nearly dynamic enough to overcome his lack of physicality.

Tough to be a feature back in the NFL if you have a difficult time breaking tackles UNLESS you're a home run hitter. Not talking about yards after contact. I'm referring to actually breaking tackles. Jones is neither real physical nor a home run hitter. I don't like the combination. Jones reminds me a lot of Abdullah.

Williams has the most feature back potential, IMO. It's going to be interesting to see if he keeps improving as the season goes along. Williams got off to such a slow start, but seems to be putting it together.

You've posted this numerous times about Jones between this thread and the Aaron Jones thread.  I don't personally understand your stance, and I've yet to see you back it up with anything more than a shrug and "I see what I see" mentality.  @Biabreakable, one of the most respected posters on this board IMO, has even tried to pull it out of you clarifying what you've said -- all without much luck.

You've stumped for Williams repeatedly as this stud who's super physical, but Jones is listed by the team at 5'9" 208 and Williams at 6'0" 213.  That's a BMI of 30.7 for Jones to 28.9 for Williams.  Both are certainly in the acceptable range, but that doesn't make Williams this physical feature back and Jones some scat back.  The data actually suggests Jones is thicker.

You've repeatedly knock Jones for a lack of elusiveness and a lack of home run speed (or what you call being a "home run hitter"), but ignore the fact that Jones blasted Williams in nearly every combine drill.  I certainly understand the Combine isn't a replacement for film, but I don't see what you're saying on film either.

6.82 3-Cone to Williams' Yeti-like 7.25
4.20 Short Shuttle to Williams' 4.53
4.49 40-Yard to Williams' 4.59
1.51 10-yard split to Williams' 1.60

The data certainly doesn't suggest that Jones lacks elusiveness or breakaway ability (what I assume you mean by being a "home run hitter").  If anything, he's far closer to that than Williams.  But somehow Williams doesn't get penalized for his subpar athleticism in the same way you're trying to discount Jones.  Instead Williams is a future feature back?

Per Football Outsiders, Jones outpaces Williams in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement 109-34.  If he had just 10 more carries to qualify for the full list, he'd rank 6th in all of the NFL, tied with Alex Collins, just ahead of Howard and Fournette, and behind only Elliott, Hunt, Ingram, Freeman, and Bell.  Full Disclosure, if Kamara (needs 16 more carries) and Dion Lewis (needs 8 more carries), qualified for the list, they'd rank ahead of Jones too.  Williams' 34 would rank 17th.  That certainly doesn't suggest Williams is awful, but it's also a sample of 31 carries.  Perhaps he moves up the list, or perhaps he falls way down the list.

Football Outsiders says DYAR measures overall value while DVOA measures value per play.  In DVOA, Aaron Jones posts a 25.5%, a figure that would rank 3rd in the league (minimum of 50 carries) behind only Kamara and Lewis.  

Aaron Jones is really good.  I don't really know how else to explain it ...
 

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19 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

You've posted this numerous times about Jones between this thread and the Aaron Jones thread.  I don't personally understand your stance, and I've yet to see you back it up with anything more than a shrug and "I see what I see" mentality.  @Biabreakable, one of the most respected posters on this board IMO, has even tried to pull it out of you clarifying what you've said -- all without much luck.

You've stumped for Williams repeatedly as this stud who's super physical, but Jones is listed by the team at 5'9" 208 and Williams at 6'0" 213.  That's a BMI of 30.7 for Jones to 28.9 for Williams.  Both are certainly in the acceptable range, but that doesn't make Williams this physical feature back and Jones some scat back.  The data actually suggests Jones is thicker.

You've repeatedly knock Jones for a lack of elusiveness and a lack of home run speed (or what you call being a "home run hitter"), but ignore the fact that Jones blasted Williams in nearly every combine drill.  I certainly understand the Combine isn't a replacement for film, but I don't see what you're saying on film either.

6.82 3-Cone to Williams' Yeti-like 7.25
4.20 Short Shuttle to Williams' 4.53
4.49 40-Yard to Williams' 4.59
1.51 10-yard split to Williams' 1.60

The data certainly doesn't suggest that Jones lacks elusiveness or breakaway ability (what I assume you mean by being a "home run hitter").  If anything, he's far closer to that than Williams.  But somehow Williams doesn't get penalized for his subpar athleticism in the same way you're trying to discount Jones.  Instead Williams is a future feature back?

Per Football Outsiders, Jones outpaces Williams in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement 109-34.  If he had just 10 more carries to qualify for the full list, he'd rank 6th in all of the NFL, tied with Alex Collins, just ahead of Howard and Fournette, and behind only Elliott, Hunt, Ingram, Freeman, and Bell.  Full Disclosure, if Kamara (needs 16 more carries) and Dion Lewis (needs 8 more carries), qualified for the list, they'd rank ahead of Jones too.  Williams' 34 would rank 17th.  That certainly doesn't suggest Williams is awful, but it's also a sample of 31 carries.  Perhaps he moves up the list, or perhaps he falls way down the list.

Football Outsiders says DYAR measures overall value while DVOA measures value per play.  In DVOA, Aaron Jones posts a 25.5%, a figure that would rank 3rd in the league (minimum of 50 carries) behind only Kamara and Lewis.  

Aaron Jones is really good.  I don't really know how else to explain it ...
 

If all Google experts could use data to demonstrate how good one football player is compared to another, we could all be experts.  Green Bay picked Williams before Jones.  Apparently, they valued one over the other. I dint know how else to explain it... 

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8 minutes ago, flapgreen said:

If all Google experts could use data to demonstrate how good one football player is compared to another, we could all be experts.  Green Bay picked Williams before Jones.  Apparently, they valued one over the other. I dint know how else to explain it... 

Draft position is 1 data point where they were separated by a round.  What has happened since?

Continue ...

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Just now, JFS171 said:

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=109217&draftyear=2017&genpos=RB

There's a discrepancy in the data here ... not sure what the explanation is.

It says 4.56 on player profiler, too.

Fun fact: Dalvin Cook had a "yeti like" 3-cone: 7.27 http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/dalvin-cook?id=2557991

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Just now, FF Ninja said:

It says 4.56 on player profiler, too.

Fun fact: Dalvin Cook had a "yeti like" 3-cone: 7.27 http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/dalvin-cook?id=2557991

Cook's combine is a totally different subject.  Obviously we don't have anything concrete to point to, but his play on the field never supported the combine data.  It was almost as if he didn't care at the combine and thus, didn't try.  There was another player competition for college guys post-season where Cook didn't seem to care either.  Perhaps that's more of an explanation for his performance than lack of ability.

Honestly don't know that one ... but Cook looks laterally explosive and elusive, and always has.  Williams doesn't.

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Just now, JFS171 said:

Cook's combine is a totally different subject.  Obviously we don't have anything concrete to point to, but his play on the field never supported the combine data.  It was almost as if he didn't care at the combine and thus, didn't try.  There was another player competition for college guys post-season where Cook didn't seem to care either.  Perhaps that's more of an explanation for his performance than lack of ability.

Honestly don't know that one ... but Cook looks laterally explosive and elusive, and always has.  Williams doesn't.

As Michael Irvin says, c'mon man. That is not a realistic excuse. 

The reality is that combine metrics do have a correlation to NFL ability for RBs but it's not strong enough that we should rely on it solely, especially in situations like this. Waldman liked Williams a little better than Jones before the draft. The Packers GM liked Williams a little better than Jones in the draft. And the Packers coaches liked Williams a little better than Jones after the draft. Like combine metrics, that's also not definitive, but it's enough that we should take notice.

Earlier you made a great point about BMI, but that's only part of the equation. Williams is not as big of a back as he looks, but he plays like a big back (Adrian Peterson actually has a slightly lower BMI than Jamaal). He runs through contact and can fight for short yardage (touchdowns are great for fantasy:)). He also protects the ball well (low fumble rate in college), protects the passer well (great at pass pro, rare for a rookie), and has looked good catching the ball so far in the preseason and in the few opportunities he's had this season. I don't think Aaron Jones has shown enough in his games without Rodgers to warrant taking the job back from Williams if Williams becomes the hot hand. McCarthy preached allegiance to Montogomery all offseason and as soon as the 3rd stringer put up a decent showing, Ty was an afterthought (from 90% of snaps down to 30% and then 13% when he returned). This is a very fluid situation, seemingly based only on health and recent production. I don't think any of us can confidently predict how it'll play out.

I'm not sure why people are making a big deal about elusiveness. Yards gained are yards gained. It is VERY rare to find a back like Marshawn Lynch that can pick and choose whether he jukes a defender out of his shoes or just trucks him. Typically you're doing good if you get a guy who can do one or the other. In this case, Williams is pretty good at running through tackles. That's good enough in my book. I don't think any of us expect Jones or Williams to turn out to be a special back like Lynch. We're just hoping for starting caliber.

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In regards to the draft position, it is a very important data point. While also imperfect, draft position is the most predictive metric that exists, so in my view that should weigh more heavily than anything one might look at for comparing players relative talent/ability. Furthermore the teams use many different things in their decision making process when drafting players. One of these things is the combine and pro day information. So that is already data is already baked in to the draft position. Most teams will tell you that film study and their scouting departments evaluations are the most important part of their decisions.

Jamaal Williams was selected higher than Aaron Jones and Devonte Mays. 

In my rookie rankings I rated Jamaal Williams as a low tier two prospect, higher than Aaron Jones, even though in my view from watching both players, I thought Jones was the better prospect. The main reason I did this is because of the Packers selecting Williams before Jones. When looking at other factors, such as combine/pro day data and college production Aaron Jones does seem to be a better prospect, but in my view the draft position still trumps that, because the team has considered this information as well in making their decisions.

Jamaal Williams is a different style of player than Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones. He is more of a between the tackles banger in my view, and the Packers already having Ty Montgomery may have preferred Williams as change of pace or compliment to what they already had in Montgomery. This may be why they selected Williams first, even with the other information pointing towards Jones being a better prospect.

They selected Jones as well, which is reminiscent of when they selected Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin. At that time they selected Lacy before Franklin. Many people thought Franklin was the better prospect at that time. Franklin had a career ending injury early on in his career, so we never got to see how good he might have been at the pro level. However this is two different times now that the Packers having a need at the RB position have selected two RBs with somewhat different but complimentary skill sets. That tells me that they want to have a backfield with players who bring different skills to the table, and perhaps not really a preference for one over the other.

It is possible that Devonte Mays has a more similar skillset to Jamaal Williams in their view, and that they selected him for the same type of role in their offense. So the order would be Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones for one of these roles and Jamaal Williams Devonte Mays for the other role in their offense.

That is kind of how I have viewed it all along as far as the fit of the players with the existing team, and in addition to the draft position why I ranked Williams ahead of Aaron Jones, despite my personal view of Jones being a better RB than Williams.

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10 hours ago, JFS171 said:

You've posted this numerous times about Jones between this thread and the Aaron Jones thread.  I don't personally understand your stance, and I've yet to see you back it up with anything more than a shrug and "I see what I see" mentality.  @Biabreakable, one of the most respected posters on this board IMO, has even tried to pull it out of you clarifying what you've said -- all without much luck.

You've stumped for Williams repeatedly as this stud who's super physical, but Jones is listed by the team at 5'9" 208 and Williams at 6'0" 213.  That's a BMI of 30.7 for Jones to 28.9 for Williams.  Both are certainly in the acceptable range, but that doesn't make Williams this physical feature back and Jones some scat back.  The data actually suggests Jones is thicker.

You've repeatedly knock Jones for a lack of elusiveness and a lack of home run speed (or what you call being a "home run hitter"), but ignore the fact that Jones blasted Williams in nearly every combine drill.  I certainly understand the Combine isn't a replacement for film, but I don't see what you're saying on film either.

6.82 3-Cone to Williams' Yeti-like 7.25
4.20 Short Shuttle to Williams' 4.53
4.49 40-Yard to Williams' 4.59
1.51 10-yard split to Williams' 1.60

The data certainly doesn't suggest that Jones lacks elusiveness or breakaway ability (what I assume you mean by being a "home run hitter").  If anything, he's far closer to that than Williams.  But somehow Williams doesn't get penalized for his subpar athleticism in the same way you're trying to discount Jones.  Instead Williams is a future feature back?

Per Football Outsiders, Jones outpaces Williams in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement 109-34.  If he had just 10 more carries to qualify for the full list, he'd rank 6th in all of the NFL, tied with Alex Collins, just ahead of Howard and Fournette, and behind only Elliott, Hunt, Ingram, Freeman, and Bell.  Full Disclosure, if Kamara (needs 16 more carries) and Dion Lewis (needs 8 more carries), qualified for the list, they'd rank ahead of Jones too.  Williams' 34 would rank 17th.  That certainly doesn't suggest Williams is awful, but it's also a sample of 31 carries.  Perhaps he moves up the list, or perhaps he falls way down the list.

Football Outsiders says DYAR measures overall value while DVOA measures value per play.  In DVOA, Aaron Jones posts a 25.5%, a figure that would rank 3rd in the league (minimum of 50 carries) behind only Kamara and Lewis.  

Aaron Jones is really good.  I don't really know how else to explain it ...
 

I use metrics (except BMI). Maybe I put less emphasis on them than you do. I dunno. 

Again, my biggest issue with Jones is his lack of physicality without being a home run hitter. In short, his power/dynamic combination is a killer for me. I don't believe Jones has long-term feature back potential.

I'm higher on Williams, but that doesn't mean he'll turn out to be a feature back, only that I believe he's got the potential to do it.

 

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10 hours ago, JFS171 said:

You've posted this numerous times about Jones between this thread and the Aaron Jones thread.  I don't personally understand your stance, and I've yet to see you back it up with anything more than a shrug and "I see what I see" mentality.  @Biabreakable, one of the most respected posters on this board IMO, has even tried to pull it out of you clarifying what you've said -- all without much luck.

You've stumped for Williams repeatedly as this stud who's super physical, but Jones is listed by the team at 5'9" 208 and Williams at 6'0" 213.  That's a BMI of 30.7 for Jones to 28.9 for Williams.  Both are certainly in the acceptable range, but that doesn't make Williams this physical feature back and Jones some scat back.  The data actually suggests Jones is thicker.

You've repeatedly knock Jones for a lack of elusiveness and a lack of home run speed (or what you call being a "home run hitter"), but ignore the fact that Jones blasted Williams in nearly every combine drill.  I certainly understand the Combine isn't a replacement for film, but I don't see what you're saying on film either.

6.82 3-Cone to Williams' Yeti-like 7.25
4.20 Short Shuttle to Williams' 4.53
4.49 40-Yard to Williams' 4.59
1.51 10-yard split to Williams' 1.60

The data certainly doesn't suggest that Jones lacks elusiveness or breakaway ability (what I assume you mean by being a "home run hitter").  If anything, he's far closer to that than Williams.  But somehow Williams doesn't get penalized for his subpar athleticism in the same way you're trying to discount Jones.  Instead Williams is a future feature back?

Per Football Outsiders, Jones outpaces Williams in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement 109-34.  If he had just 10 more carries to qualify for the full list, he'd rank 6th in all of the NFL, tied with Alex Collins, just ahead of Howard and Fournette, and behind only Elliott, Hunt, Ingram, Freeman, and Bell.  Full Disclosure, if Kamara (needs 16 more carries) and Dion Lewis (needs 8 more carries), qualified for the list, they'd rank ahead of Jones too.  Williams' 34 would rank 17th.  That certainly doesn't suggest Williams is awful, but it's also a sample of 31 carries.  Perhaps he moves up the list, or perhaps he falls way down the list.

Football Outsiders says DYAR measures overall value while DVOA measures value per play.  In DVOA, Aaron Jones posts a 25.5%, a figure that would rank 3rd in the league (minimum of 50 carries) behind only Kamara and Lewis.  

Aaron Jones is really good.  I don't really know how else to explain it ...
 

BTW, the reason I don't use BMI is for the very reason you wonder why I believe Williams is more physical despite Jones' higher BMI. 

Also, for the record, I never said Williams was going to be a stud. I like him quite a bit more than Jones, but it's not like I'm super-high on Williams. What I DID love about Williams was where you could typically get him in dynasty drafts (late-2nd/early 3rd in most leagues).

 

 

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10 hours ago, JFS171 said:

You've posted this numerous times about Jones between this thread and the Aaron Jones thread.  I don't personally understand your stance, and I've yet to see you back it up with anything more than a shrug and "I see what I see" mentality.  @Biabreakable, one of the most respected posters on this board IMO, has even tried to pull it out of you clarifying what you've said -- all without much luck.

You've stumped for Williams repeatedly as this stud who's super physical, but Jones is listed by the team at 5'9" 208 and Williams at 6'0" 213.  That's a BMI of 30.7 for Jones to 28.9 for Williams.  Both are certainly in the acceptable range, but that doesn't make Williams this physical feature back and Jones some scat back.  The data actually suggests Jones is thicker.

You've repeatedly knock Jones for a lack of elusiveness and a lack of home run speed (or what you call being a "home run hitter"), but ignore the fact that Jones blasted Williams in nearly every combine drill.  I certainly understand the Combine isn't a replacement for film, but I don't see what you're saying on film either.

6.82 3-Cone to Williams' Yeti-like 7.25
4.20 Short Shuttle to Williams' 4.53
4.49 40-Yard to Williams' 4.59
1.51 10-yard split to Williams' 1.60

The data certainly doesn't suggest that Jones lacks elusiveness or breakaway ability (what I assume you mean by being a "home run hitter").  If anything, he's far closer to that than Williams.  But somehow Williams doesn't get penalized for his subpar athleticism in the same way you're trying to discount Jones.  Instead Williams is a future feature back?

Per Football Outsiders, Jones outpaces Williams in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement 109-34.  If he had just 10 more carries to qualify for the full list, he'd rank 6th in all of the NFL, tied with Alex Collins, just ahead of Howard and Fournette, and behind only Elliott, Hunt, Ingram, Freeman, and Bell.  Full Disclosure, if Kamara (needs 16 more carries) and Dion Lewis (needs 8 more carries), qualified for the list, they'd rank ahead of Jones too.  Williams' 34 would rank 17th.  That certainly doesn't suggest Williams is awful, but it's also a sample of 31 carries.  Perhaps he moves up the list, or perhaps he falls way down the list.

Football Outsiders says DYAR measures overall value while DVOA measures value per play.  In DVOA, Aaron Jones posts a 25.5%, a figure that would rank 3rd in the league (minimum of 50 carries) behind only Kamara and Lewis.  

Aaron Jones is really good.  I don't really know how else to explain it ...
 

yes 

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14 hours ago, Football Jones said:

I use metrics (except BMI). Maybe I put less emphasis on them than you do. I dunno. 

Again, my biggest issue with Jones is his lack of physicality without being a home run hitter. In short, his power/dynamic combination is a killer for me. I don't believe Jones has long-term feature back potential.

I'm higher on Williams, but that doesn't mean he'll turn out to be a feature back, only that I believe he's got the potential to do it.

 

I think we would all appreciate you laying out which metrics you use, and WHY you believe Jones lacks physicality and IS NOT a "home run hitter."  

Terms like "physicality" and "home run hitter" are rather nebulous.  I also have no idea what exactly you mean by "power/dynamic combination."

I don't think anyone knows.

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Would anyone with access to PFF's elusiveness ratings and yards after contact be willing to post those data points for Jones vs. Williams?

Physicality (I think) would point to Williams being harder to tackle, which is a combination of those two things.  I'm betting Jones outperforms him, but I don't have access to the data.

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5 hours ago, JFS171 said:

Would anyone with access to PFF's elusiveness ratings and yards after contact be willing to post those data points for Jones vs. Williams?

Physicality (I think) would point to Williams being harder to tackle, which is a combination of those two things.  I'm betting Jones outperforms him, but I don't have access to the data.

I dont have access, but I bet you are right.  Williams started very slow (on his first 11 career carries).  I also think that the data sample sizes are way too small to even concern ourselves with them yet.  I get that its all we have to work with...I just think there isnt nearly enough there to make any valuable determinations at this point.

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I agree with Chuck that the PFF scores and comparing Jones and Williams by those will not tell us very much because of the small sample size of only a few games for each player.

FWIW 2017 NFL rookie rankings through Week 9 Aaron Jones is listed as the 4th best rookie here. But he isn't even in the top 10 for the week 10 rookie rankings, so I guess those 4 carries before he got injured somehow dropped him out of the previously high score from just a week before, showing how meaningless these numbers are in such small samples.

Quote

4. Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers

PFF Grade: 84.3

Elite Stat: Jones has picked up a first down or touchdown on 26.9 percent of his carries, the fourth-best rate among RBs.

Jones only carried the ball five times on Monday night against the Detroit Lions as the Packers found themselves trying to play catch-up throughout the game. His 84.2 running grade this season though ranks sixth among running backs and when the Packers have been able to feed him the ball this season, he’s rewarded them with steady production. Even when Jones doesn’t pick up a first down or touchdown, he almost always at least gets something: His 13.4 stuff rate (the percentage of a player’s rushing attempts that result in 0 or fewer yards) is the sixth-lowest among running backs through the first nine weeks.

NFL Week 10 Preview: Packers at Bears

Quote

Jones enters Week 10 ranked fourth among running backs with a PFF overall grade of 84.3. He has five runs of 15-plus yards, and 33.2 percent of his rushing yards have come on those 15-plus yard runs. Additionally, he averages 2.64 yards after contact and has a 35.7 elusive rating. Trevathan leads the Bears linebacking corps with 13 run stops. He’s tied for seventh among linebackers with an overall grade of 84.5. However, his run defense grade of 56.6 ranks 49th.

Not sure what the average is for yards after contact and elusive rating are to put those numbers into context. But I am guessing they are good or it would not have been mentioned.

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10 hours ago, JFS171 said:

I think we would all appreciate you laying out which metrics you use, and WHY you believe Jones lacks physicality and IS NOT a "home run hitter."  

Terms like "physicality" and "home run hitter" are rather nebulous.  I also have no idea what exactly you mean by "power/dynamic combination."

I don't think anyone knows.

I've laid out why I don't particularly like Jones as a potential long-term feature back in good detail. Sounds like you've read most of my posts in the 'Jones' thread so you should be familiar with my general reasoning. The power/dynamic combination is simply a RBs ability to use power (breaking tackles, etc.) combined with their ability to be dynamic (elusiveness, speed, etc.).

As far as metrics, I use the vast majority of the most common ones (to some degree). I don't use BMI. I don't believe you should make assumptions based off a player's height/weight ratio.

In short, I believe the traits a player exhibits on the field are much more important than the combined value of using metrics. Eyeball scouting is far & away the #1 way to determine future success, IMO. That said, metrics are a valuable resource.

I have my way of doing things, but there are a lot of ways to skin a cat.

 

 

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FYI, Frank Gore did not have great combine and thankfully, he was taken by 49ers GM Scot McCloughan in 3rd round due to Gore's vision, heart, and love for game.  McCloughan knew Gore would be successful on the field regardless his combine results.   The way Waldman scouted Williams was almost simialr to the way McCloughan scouted Gore.  One last comment... Williams did point out how much he enjoys banging inside and looks forward playing in cold climate.

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22 minutes ago, Aznflyer14 said:

FYI, Frank Gore did not have great combine and thankfully, he was taken by 49ers GM Scot McCloughan in 3rd round due to Gore's vision, heart, and love for game.  McCloughan knew Gore would be successful on the field regardless his combine results.   The way Waldman scouted Williams was almost simialr to the way McCloughan scouted Gore.  One last comment... Williams did point out how much he enjoys banging inside and looks forward playing in cold climate.

So you’re comparing future HOF’er Frank Gore to Jamaal Williams?

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27 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

So you’re comparing future HOF’er Frank Gore to Jamaal Williams?

I don't want to speak for Aznflyer14, but it seems as if he's simply comparing the scouting process McCloughlin & Waldman went through in regards to Gore/Williams.

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I think what it boils down to is using metrics in moderation.

Time & time again we see players perform better than their metrics would indicate. Conversely, time & time again we see players perform worse than their metrics would indicate.

I believe there's too much naturally occurring error in metrics in relation to projected performance for them to be given a lot of weight. Eyeball scouting should always be your #1 resource, IMO.

Again, I do want to stress metrics certainly have their place in scouting for sure.

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49 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

So you’re comparing future HOF’er Frank Gore to Jamaal Williams?

I apologize if my comment was misconstrued as disrespectful to Gore's past accomplishments as well as his HoF credentials but that is not my intent.  What I was trying to say that everyone has a different method of scouting.  Granted, Waldman had many misses (he even did admit that he failed to project Russell Wilson' success so he went back and changed his scouting evaluation for future QB prospects).  I'm sure McCloughan felt the same to continue to evolve his scouting acumen. 

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