travdogg said:
Just think he's clearly behind Thielen,
Stefon Diggs had 4 fewer targets than Adam Thielen in one less game played. Diggs was also limited in others (groin injury) if you pro rate the missed game Diggs would have had 5 more targets than Thielen did. His catch rate was lower than Thielen so he still would have had fewer receptions. As a Vikings fan I don't think that Thielen is clearly ahead of DIggs. It is pretty close.
and that the Vikings will have way fewer pass attempts.
You are not alone in thinking this. However a improved running game does not necessarily mean fewer passing attempts. If the running game is more effective then the play action passing will benefit, better yards per attempt could be the result even if there are fewer passing attempts, and I am not convinced that they will be fewer.
The defense should be slightly better,
The schedule may be easier for the Vikings than last year but they lost Sheldon Richardson who created a lot of QB pressures for the Vikings last year. They haven't really replaced him. I have heard good things about Hercules Mata'afa but starter Shamar Stephen is definitely a step down from Richardson. They may be playing DE Griffen and others there more this year to compensate. They haven't done anything to upgrade the defense from my perspective this season.
and the new OC will be much more run heavy this year. We saw that down the stretch Cousins had 34+ attempts in all of the 1st 8 games, only 3 of the final 8. Diggs had 1 game over 77 yards during that stretch. He's a low-end WR2 to me, and that isn't even factoring in his moderate durability issues.
I have heard this a lot, but it isn't what Zimmer has been saying. Zimmer wants the offense to be balanced, not run heavy.
The pass attempts by Cousins at the end of the 2018 are not helping your point about reduced passing attempts at all in my view. The Vikings had early leads and didn't give up points to Detroit twice in that time frame and also against Miami. Otherwise Cousins was throwing it 33 times or more in every game.
While you are correct Diggs only had one game with 77 or more yards in this time frame, he had one game with 76 yards after that, so what? He scored TD in the last 3 games of the season.
It does factor in the durability issues because part of the reason Diiggs does less over this time frame is because he was injured and missed game 9. However DIggs did have 18 targets 13 receptions 126 yards and a TD against Chicago coming off the missed week from injury. His performance yardage wise did slow down in the last 3 weeks with Stefanski as the OC after Flippo was fired, buit he scored in all 3 of those games.
Diggs was WR 10 in PPR leagues last season. WR 12 in standard scoring.
If anything it was more Thielen who faded in the second half of the season, of course he had over 100 yards receiving in the first 8 games
As for Jones, I think 1500-10 is a reasonable expectation if he plays 16 games. That said, he's in a group with Gurley, D.Freeman, and Fournette, where I think its fair to not only think its possible, but expect, them not to play 16 games. I'd rank them Gurley>>>Jones>Fournette>Freeman. I have Gurley as an end of round 1 guy, and the other 3 as 3rd rounders, with Freeman at the end of the round. All of those guys are ahead of Marlon Mack for me.
I assume you mean 1500 combined yards?
Seems optimistic but possible. Jones has been too efficient to not get the ball more than he has. Of course if he does get more volume that efficiency will surely go down.