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3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

I agree with them taking a wr very early, I'm just not sure he ends up the starter this season or right away. We dont see that very often in general in the NFL... or maybe just as Packer fans we dont see that often. Even Adams was third string for a while as a 2nd rounder. I cant remember the last rookie who went right into a wr2 role... maybe Jordy Nelson? Javon Walker?

I think you misinterpreted my targets list- that was the 2019 targets. I am Wanticipating Allison to not be resigned. Lazard was great last year and got Rodgers trust. MVS will stick around but be buried as wr4 at best. I still think a wr4 can get 40 targets or so in that offense. enough to make it frustrating for the wr2 owners 

Oh perhaps so. Well I think each year there are at least a couple rookie WRs that emerge. The fact that hasn't been the case with the Packers is just coincidence in my mind. Some years there are more than a couple that emerge. Last year we had AJ Brown, Metcalf, McLaurin, and the Unicorn all making season 1 impacts. This year is being touted as the best WR class ever. I suppose it would be a wise bet to take the under, but if the Packers actually take a 1st or 2nd rounder (or two), I think there is a solid chance they hit. 

It's all silly speculation on my part and may not matter much re:Jones targets. 

ETA Deebo also emerged last year

Edited by barackdhouse
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Soooo... you guys are hooking up, right?

Currently the NFLs leading rusher. 

The lungs are organs, not muscles.  They improve in performance via the optimization of gas exchange in order to oxygenate the blood. You've completely generalized the body without understanding

 

7 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

I said last offseason that it was a good time to sell Jones, and I was dead wrong. His value is way higher now. Especially if they are offering him a long term deal. In general I wouldn't blame anyone for selling Jones off after last year. 19 TDs is not very sustainable and is very volatile. I think this is baked into his current value though... I don't see him being valued where he finished last year. 

 

Right, this is the problem with selling Jones right now.  His value already operates under the assumption that he is going to have a huge TD regression.  He probably will, but he might not.  But when you sell him you're doing it on the premise that he will, and you get no chance to reap the rewards if he doesn't.

Jones is currently RB10 via startup ADP.  If we took 14 TDs away from Jones last year (leaving him with only 5 TDs on the season) he would have finished as RB10 on the back of his rushing/receiving numbers.

And then on top of that the thing people don't realize about Jones was that this season wasn't really an outlier in TD rate for him.  He's always scored a high amount of TDs per touch (a TD every 21 touchees as a rookie, a TD every 17 touches in 2018, and a TD every 15 touches in 2019).  The only notable difference for him in TDs between 2018 and 2019 was that he had more total touches in 2019.  He's been sustaining an "unsustainable" TD rate for his entire career, not just one year.

 

6 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Davante Adams was on pace for 168 targets last year, so that would have been 2 years in a row, so I feel comfortable projecting 170 in 2021.

 

This is interesting to me just in the context of the above.  Davante Adams has an unsustainable target rate two years in a row and you're comfortable projecting that going forward.  But Aaron Jones has an unustainable TD rate two years in a row and massive regression must be in store.  Not trying to single you out individually here, more of a general "you" as that's the way the consensus feels as well.

I'm not saying it won't happen, and TD regression can always happen, but people are sleeping on Jones in terms of both how many fantasy points he scores without the TDs and how consistently good he has been at scoring TDs beyond just this season.

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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

 

Right, this is the problem with selling Jones right now.  His value already operates under the assumption that he is going to have a huge TD regression.  He probably will, but he might not.  But when you sell him you're doing it on the premise that he will, and you get no chance to reap the rewards if he doesn't.

Jones is currently RB10 via startup ADP.  If we took 14 TDs away from Jones last year (leaving him with only 5 TDs on the season) he would have finished as RB10 on the back of his rushing/receiving numbers.

And then on top of that the thing people don't realize about Jones was that this season wasn't really an outlier in TD rate for him.  He's always scored a high amount of TDs per touch (a TD every 21 touchees as a rookie, a TD every 17 touches in 2018, and a TD every 15 touches in 2019).  The only notable difference for him in TDs between 2018 and 2019 was that he had more total touches in 2019.  He's been sustaining an "unsustainable" TD rate for his entire career, not just one year.

 

This is interesting to me just in the context of the above.  Davante Adams has an unsustainable target rate two years in a row and you're comfortable projecting that going forward.  But Aaron Jones has an unustainable TD rate two years in a row and massive regression must be in store.  Not trying to single you out individually here, more of a general "you" as that's the way the consensus feels as well.

I'm not saying it won't happen, and TD regression can always happen, but people are sleeping on Jones in terms of both how many fantasy points he scores without the TDs and how consistently good he has been at scoring TDs beyond just this season.

Regarding Adams, I thought hed regress last year but he didn't. 2 years in a row seems like the beginning of a trend to me. it's very possible GB just had no one else and plans to draft a wr high. Then Adams could be in for a regression in 2020 

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Regarding Adams, I thought hed regress last year but he didn't. 2 years in a row seems like the beginning of a trend to me. it's very possible GB just had no one else and plans to draft a wr high. Then Adams could be in for a regression in 2020 

Right so my point was why does 2 years in a row for Adams seem like a trend, but 2 years in a row for Jones mean obvious regression?

Jones' TD rate was only slightly higher in 2019 than it was in 2018.

2017: 1 TD every 20 touches (3rd in the league)
2018: 1 TD every 17 touches (1st in the league)
2019: 1 TD every 15 touches (1st in the league)

That isn't a trend?

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Right so my point was why does 2 years in a row for Adams seem like a trend, but 2 years in a row for Jones mean obvious regression?

Jones' TD rate was only slightly higher in 2019 than it was in 2018.

2017: 1 TD every 20 touches (3rd in the league)
2018: 1 TD every 17 touches (1st in the league)
2019: 1 TD every 15 touches (1st in the league)

That isn't a trend?

it could very well be. 

In general, TDs are unpredictable. However, you've demonstrated a trend for Jones that's interesting 

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On ‎2‎/‎28‎/‎2020 at 6:59 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

This is interesting to me just in the context of the above.  Davante Adams has an unsustainable target rate two years in a row and you're comfortable projecting that going forward.  But Aaron Jones has an unustainable TD rate two years in a row and massive regression must be in store.  Not trying to single you out individually here, more of a general "you" as that's the way the consensus feels as well.

I'm not saying it won't happen, and TD regression can always happen, but people are sleeping on Jones in terms of both how many fantasy points he scores without the TDs and how consistently good he has been at scoring TDs beyond just this season.

Targets are a much more repeatable statistic than TD's.  This is most likely the reason why targets are trusted more. 

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  • 1 month later...
On 3/1/2020 at 6:43 AM, dmac37 said:

I would hope the coaching staff will realize how productive Jones is in the passing game and not ignore him at the rate they did for stretches this past year. 

I think their plan this year is to use Jones more like Kamara. Jones doubled his catches from 2018 to 2019 and proved himself a reliable receiver. I wouldn't be surprised if it doubles again this year. There seems to be a lot of people down on him after the drafting of Dillon. But I think something else that should be considered is that they didn't draft any other receiving options besides the TE. He is going to get a ton of targets this year. I think he is an excellent buy low candidate.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Its ridiculous this guy is going at 3.9 in startups right now, per Mizelle.  Did everyone forget he was the RB2 last year?  I know the touchd9wn totals will probably come down and Dillon is there to siphon some touches but the guy carried the Pack to the NFCCG last year and I'm sure they want to win a few ballgames this year too.  Lafleur is not going to forget about him.  

Kamara goes 1.5 and honestly I don't see much of a gap between the two, redraft or dynasty.  Both need new contracts, have aging QBs with uncertain futures, both in their age 25 season.  If anything Jones looks a lot more like a 3 down back.  Perhaps AK has more longevity but I'm not willing to concede that point.  

I do not get the gap.

Are the Jones owners out there looking to sell?  How do you value him right now?  I recently acquired him in my biggest FFPC league and may attempt to snag him in other leagues too.  He strikes me as the most undervalued player in the league right now based on startup adp.

Edited by Vandelay
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I have him as a late round keeper, so I am holding on to him. One issue is that it really feels like they coaches will do everything possible not to play him until they are forced to. I hoped that would get better when they got rid of McCarthy, but it still happened some. There will be games where Jamaal Williams gets 2/3 of the carries and you have no idea why. Or they will get to 1st and 1 and not run the ball once. He had 5 games last year with more than 15 carries, and for half of his games he had 15 or less total touches. In many games he was saved by TDs, but he still had 5 games of 4 or less points standard scoring, which seems unusual with the amount of points he got. 

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12 minutes ago, huthut said:

I have him as a late round keeper, so I am holding on to him. One issue is that it really feels like they coaches will do everything possible not to play him until they are forced to. I hoped that would get better when they got rid of McCarthy, but it still happened some. There will be games where Jamaal Williams gets 2/3 of the carries and you have no idea why. Or they will get to 1st and 1 and not run the ball once. He had 5 games last year with more than 15 carries, and for half of his games he had 15 or less total touches. In many games he was saved by TDs, but he still had 5 games of 4 or less points standard scoring, which seems unusual with the amount of points he got. 

He’s undersized for a bell cow RB and had a track record of injury. Don’t know how one could expect/hope for better usage. 

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3 minutes ago, JetMaxx said:

He’s undersized for a bell cow RB and had a track record of injury. Don’t know how one could expect/hope for better usage. 

208 lbs at 5'9" seems fairly average sized for an NFL RB, not any different than someone like Frank Gore. I don't recall if Jones was injured any last year. I was thinking it had something to do with pass protection or knowing the playbook, but who knows. 

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51 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

Its ridiculous this guy is going at 3.9 in startups right now, per Mizelle.  Did everyone forget he was the RB2 last year?  I know the touchd9wn totals will probably come down and Dillon is there to siphon some touches but the guy carried the Pack to the NFCCG last year and I'm sure they want to win a few ballgames this year too.  Lafleur is not going to forget about him.  

Kamara goes 1.5 and honestly I don't see much of a gap between the two, redraft or dynasty.  Both need new contracts, have aging QBs with uncertain futures, both in their age 25 season.  If anything Jones looks a lot more like a 3 down back.  Perhaps AK has more longevity but I'm not willing to concede that point.  

I do not get the gap.

Are the Jones owners out there looking to sell?  How do you value him right now?  I recently acquired him in my biggest FFPC league and may attempt to snag him in other leagues too.  He strikes me as the most undervalued player in the league right now based on startup adp.

I am with you on the Kamara comp. Although, it has taken Jones a little longer to get going due to coaching staff and scheme. But last year he had 285 touches which is more than Kamara has ever had. I think Lafluer knows what he has in Jones and is going to use him way more this season in the passing game. His carries and TD's will go down with Dillon there but his receptions will increase quite a bit, which will make up some for those lost TD's. Nobody is going to pay Kamara prices for Jones though. So if you have him I say hold and reap the benefits. If you don't I say go get him if you can. I think a late 1st could be enough for a lot of owners to move him. That would be a steal.

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I've currently got him at RB8 for redraft and worry that's even low.  I appreciate the likely negative TD regression.  But I won't draft him as the 2nd RB off the board.  He's an extremely explosive guy that they'll continue to find ways to get the ball.  I think he'll again have double digit TD's.  

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On 5/13/2020 at 7:06 AM, jm192 said:

I've currently got him at RB8 for redraft and worry that's even low.  I appreciate the likely negative TD regression.  But I won't draft him as the 2nd RB off the board.  He's an extremely explosive guy that they'll continue to find ways to get the ball.  I think he'll again have double digit TD's.  

I really hope you’re right. The drafting of AJ felt like a gut punch though. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

Aaron Jones' agent, Chris Cabott, confirmed "there have been conversations" regarding a long-term extension with the Packers.

Jones admitted he "would love to be a lifelong Packer" but isn't sure it's plausible. Even so, Cabott has had ongoing conversations regarding a long-term deal for the 25-year-old ahead of 2020, the final year of Jones' contract. 

https://twitter.com/RobDemovsky/status/1265732112755445760

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2 minutes ago, zeeshan2 said:

 

Aaron Jones' agent, Chris Cabott, confirmed "there have been conversations" regarding a long-term extension with the Packers.

Jones admitted he "would love to be a lifelong Packer" but isn't sure it's plausible. Even so, Cabott has had ongoing conversations regarding a long-term deal for the 25-year-old ahead of 2020, the final year of Jones' contract. 

https://twitter.com/RobDemovsky/status/1265732112755445760

Imagine that.  The Packers might be open to keeping the guy that lead them to the NFC championship game.

Obviously the money needs to work for both sides, but I always thought this vibe of him being gone was way too premature.  Another big season on the way.

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1 hour ago, Vandelay said:

Imagine that.  The Packers might be open to keeping the guy that lead them to the NFC championship game.

Obviously the money needs to work for both sides, but I always thought this vibe of him being gone was way too premature.  Another big season on the way.

Maybe. How do you explain using a 2nd round pick on Dillon?

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36 minutes ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Maybe. How do you explain using a 2nd round pick on Dillon?

"Jamaal Williams sucks" fits pretty well here lol.

The bad news is Jones is just not going to receive a Barkley/CMC/Elliott/Henry workload.  Good news is he's highly productive and almost no one else with get that kind of run either.

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16 hours ago, Vandelay said:

"Jamaal Williams sucks" fits pretty well here lol.

The bad news is Jones is just not going to receive a Barkley/CMC/Elliott/Henry workload.  Good news is he's highly productive and almost no one else with get that kind of run either.

Your argument is very persuasive.  😉

I have several concerns that keep me from jumping on the AJ train.

  1. As you said the first concern is his workload. This means a lot of his production relies heavily on TDs. RBs getting at least 100 carries scored a TD on 3.3% touches. AJ scored at a 6.8% rate. This feels like a situation due for some regression.
  2. RBs having at least 20 receptions scored a TD on 3.8% of the catches. AJ scored on 6.1% on his catches. Again regression feels like a reasonable assumption. 
  3. The presence of Dillion gives me pause about AJ's opportunities at the GL.
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On 5/13/2020 at 7:24 AM, Faust said:

Good article and largely agree. Yes the signing of Dillion may cap Jones's ceiling if Dillion flourishes. But I think the greater truth is that any team needs to build for the future through the draft, and both Jones and Williams are FAs this coming year. That is just sound team management as opposed to a death knell for Jones's usage this year.

Agree that Jones will be more TD dependent, but also believe he is in for another solid year and is a solid Top 10 RB, especially if they utilize him more in the passing game.

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43 minutes ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Your argument is very persuasive.  😉

I have several concerns that keep me from jumping on the AJ train.

  1. As you said the first concern is his workload. This means a lot of his production relies heavily on TDs. RBs getting at least 100 carries scored a TD on 3.3% touches. AJ scored at a 6.8% rate. This feels like a situation due for some regression.
  2. RBs having at least 20 receptions scored a TD on 3.8% of the catches. AJ scored on 6.1% on his catches. Again regression feels like a reasonable assumption. 
  3. The presence of Dillion gives me pause about AJ's opportunities at the GL.

On points 1 & 2, it's worth noting that Jones scored on 6% of his touches in 2018 as well (and 5% as a rookie).  2019 wasn't really an outlier for him.  He's been amongst the league leaders in TDs per touch every year of his career.

Which leads into point #3, as I've mentioned earlier in this thread it will be interesting to see if LaFleur falls into the trap of "herpa derpa big guy get ball on goaline" or if he realizes that best goaline backs aren't always the largest (Lindsay got a lot more goaline carries than Freeman last year) and sticks with the guy who has been possibly the best goaline back in the league over the last 3 years.

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The last two posts just about sum it up for me.  Some guys are just good at scoring TDs.  

Last year was the first year they really leaned on him with a big workload and he delivered big time.  Even with Dillon on board, ill be pretty surprised if they take touches away from him.  They may not increase, and hes probably due for a little TD regression, but overall he seems extremely undervalued right now.  There is also upside if they unleash him more in the passing game, which they definitely have the capability to do with fresh legs onboard.

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Congratulations you have sold me. The high TD% makes me nervous about regression, but maybe AJ's regression is much higher than the league average.  DVOA indicates Wagner represents an upgrade over Bulaga in the run game.  I moved AJ into my top 10 RBs...for now. 😉

Only other nagging concern they need to:  F R E E   A A R O N   J O N E S

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Took him at 4.06 in an FFPC Superflex startup today. Never had him in dynasty, other than my weird one that disbands after this year, but I've won multiple ships with this guy in that league and in redrafts, so I was stoked to take him as my RB2 (Henry).

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6 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Took him at 4.06 in an FFPC Superflex startup today. Never had him in dynasty, other than my weird one that disbands after this year, but I've won multiple ships with this guy in that league and in redrafts, so I was stoked to take him as my RB2 (Henry).

How many QBs went before?  Seems like an absolute steal to me.  

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2 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

How many QBs went before?  Seems like an absolute steal to me.  

Not as many as I was expecting. Only 9 so far. Yeah I really wasn't expecting to get him this late. Was thinking WR there but there will be plenty more WR for me in a couple picks. 

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23 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

Unhidden

 

How many threads have been hidden?  I can't imagine the reason for all of them.  Dr. Dan mentioned the one thread because of personal info being posted, or fear of stalking, or something like that, but I'm sure not all of them had good reason for hiding.  It makes no sense to me.   Sounds to me like a panic ensued, probably due to too much Knob Creek :)

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  • 4 weeks later...

 

Aaron Rodgers' days as a fantasy darling are over as Packers look like team changing identity

Excerpt:

Quote

Aaron Jones was tied for the lead league with 19 total TDs among RBs. Can he sustain similar numbers in what may be a run-first offense or will TD regression and the addition of AJ Dillon limit his ceiling?

Liz: We can’t talk about Aaron Jones without also discussing AJ Dillon. The Packers used a second-round pick on a workhorse running back (845 totes over three years at Boston College) who broke 78 tackles in 2019 (RB4) and comps to a player Matt LeFleur is credited with unlocking. That doesn’t mean Dillon is going to steal Jones’ starting gig right away, but it does mean that Green Bay is keen on utilizing his talents, and probably immediately.

Don’t get it twisted. This isn’t about Jones’ ability. He’s a stud talent, which was illustrated not just via his 19 TDs, but also the fact that he posted a career-high 3.06 yards after contact per attempt last year. It’s completely reasonable to want to roster a starting player with that level of skill, as long as you’re factoring in a likely scoring regression and the potential for fewer touches. He’s right on that RB1/RB2 bubble, and a solid target in the second round of -team exercises. As an example, if I were drafting out of the 10 spot, I’d aim to make him my RB2 behind either Nick Chubb or Joe Mixon.  

Scott: No one expects Jones to approach last year’s dream season, and the AJ Dillon pick tells us how Green Bay feels. But Jones is still the primary back on a quality team, which makes him a reasonable option in Round 2. Even if he falls to the 7-9 touchdown range, he can easily make back his ADP, if given a full season. Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Matt: It’s just hard to expect any player to post those kinds of touchdown totals two years in a row. Jones will experience some touchdown regression. The pick of AJ Dillion is certainly problematic for Jones’ future as this team’s feature back but it would seem quite strange if the rookie didn’t also shave off some of his 2020 touch-ceiling. Do you really take a running back on the second day of the draft just to put him on ice for a year while you sort out the contracts of Jones and Jamaal Williams? I don’t mind Jones at his Round 2 ADP but he’s someone I’d be more comfortable with as my RB2 if I go with two RBs to start my draft.

 

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I think we've overcorrected too much.  

He won't get 19 TD's again.  I get it.  I agree with it.  TD regression is coming.

But for a guy to finish RB2 overall and then to fall to an actual RB2 is wild.  

He's one of the most explosive backs in the league, on a good offense that is committing more and more to the run.  He had 9 TD's in 12 games in 18, 19 last year.  I think he's a safe bet for 10-12 TD's this year.  I just can't buy that they're in a hurry to get the ball out of his hands.  I realize they drafted Dillon.  I'll worry about Dillon when we're closer to the season and I hear he's getting the goal line packages in practice.  But for now--I think it's just as likely Dillon struggles to see the field as a rookie.  

I think he should see similar yards to last year.  1000-1100 rushing, 400-500 receiving, 10-12 total TD's.   Last year, that would have been around RB7-8.  Fantasypros has him at RB10.  I'm pretty happy if I'm getting him in the 2nd round.  

 

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55 minutes ago, jm192 said:

I think we've overcorrected too much.  

He won't get 19 TD's again.  I get it.  I agree with it.  TD regression is coming.

But for a guy to finish RB2 overall and then to fall to an actual RB2 is wild.  

He's one of the most explosive backs in the league, on a good offense that is committing more and more to the run.  He had 9 TD's in 12 games in 18, 19 last year.  I think he's a safe bet for 10-12 TD's this year.  I just can't buy that they're in a hurry to get the ball out of his hands.  I realize they drafted Dillon.  I'll worry about Dillon when we're closer to the season and I hear he's getting the goal line packages in practice.  But for now--I think it's just as likely Dillon struggles to see the field as a rookie.  

I think he should see similar yards to last year.  1000-1100 rushing, 400-500 receiving, 10-12 total TD's.   Last year, that would have been around RB7-8.  Fantasypros has him at RB10.  I'm pretty happy if I'm getting him in the 2nd round.  

 

I have been amazed that people have Drake much ahead of him.  I have also seen Connor in that same breath as well.  That just makes no sense to me. 

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Love Aaron Jones the guy...should do well in what will be his last year in GB likely.

Just hard to pay up for him...they need to lock up Kenny Clark and Bahktiari.  Those two making it less likely to see Jones getting any extension.

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On 7/1/2020 at 7:33 PM, Faust said:

comps to a player Matt LeFleur is credited with unlocking.

is this a Henry reference? Do people give LeFleur credit for Henry? Henry, and that offense in general, looked way better after LeFleur left.  I feel like LeFleur actually limited Henry by giving Dion Lewis way too many touches. Which is exactly my concern with Jones, because last year, he gave Jamal Williams, an inferior back, way too many touches. 

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  • 1 month later...


 

Quote

Packers RB Aaron Jones said the team is working towards a new deal for him.

"My agent and them are taking care of that," Jones said in an interview on the NFL Network. "I'm gonna focus on football." The Packers haven't given a second contract to a running back they drafted since finalizing a deal with James Starks, a sixth-round pick in 2010, but Jones appears to be well on his way to stopping that trend. He's set to make $2.13 million in the final year of his contract this season.

SOURCE: Will Selva on Twitter

Sep 8, 2020, 11:17 AM ET

 

 

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Aaron Jones rushed 16 times for 66 yards and one touchdown in the Packers' Week 1 win over the Vikings, adding four catches for 10 yards on six targets.

Jamaal Williams saw 11 touches behind Jones, as the two essentially split work in the first half before Jones took over clock-killing work in the second half. Jones was stuffed early in the contest at the goal line and had a touchdown called back, but he was able to cash in later from five yards out in the fourth quarter. Jones is unlikely to score at the rate he did a season ago, but there's no question he remains a rock-solid RB1 most weeks. He gets a date with the Lions in Week 2.

- Rotoworld

 

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2 hours ago, dcgangstas said:

Time for all of the "experts" that said to avoid Aaron Jones to wipe that cheese omelet off their faces.   

If you got Aaron Jones in the 2nd round, consider yourself blessed.   

 

Agreed. All that "TD regression" stuff means nothing when you have a RB who is fantastic as a receiver catching passes from Aaron Rodgers.

(He went 1.12 in our League)

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