Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Top 24 Rookies 2017


EBF

Recommended Posts

Here's my list for this year. List assumes generic PPR league requirements that stress the RB and WR positions.

I like this class overall. There are good players available throughout. I think the top 5 is strong. I like all of those guys quite a bit and can see a case for almost any of them at #1. I think 6-12 is pretty flat, with some good values to be had in the deeper rounds.

 

FIRST TIER

1. RB Joe Mixon, Bengals - Probably the best all-around back in the draft. He combines many of the best elements of the others. He has size like Fournette, versatility like McCaffrey, and a smooth running style like Cook. He has the all-around three down game to be a monster in FF like Elliott, Johnson, Forte, or Bell. As long as he stays healthy and focused, he should become an elite FF asset.

 

2. RB Leonard Fournette, Jaguars - Height/weight/speed specimen who will thrive as a north-south runner. I think he will be a multi-year 1000+ yard rusher, but I think his reputation is inflated. People say the name Peterson in the same sentence, but Fournette's creativity/footwork/elusiveness are nowhere near that level. Not very crafty or good in space. Still, the sheer speed/power combination is rare and he can do big things if the team around him can cater to his strengths.

 

3. RB Christian McCaffrey, Panthers - Stanford is my favorite college team, so I watched McCaffrey a lot in college. I never felt like I had a great grasp on how his game would translate to the NFL. Going into this season, I really did not see him as a first round pick. However, he went in the top 10 of the draft and offers a lot of positives. Apart from a lack of bulk, he tested well at the combine. He has good speed and versatility. He's a productive inside runner despite his lack of weight. Even if he never becomes an 300+ touch every down player, his ability to do multiple things for the offense can see him become sort of a plus version of Danny Woodhead, which will be great in PPR leagues.

 

4. RB Dalvin Cook, Vikings - The combine numbers are ugly and there are some injury/character red flags. He also lacks an ideal frame to take hits in the NFL. Still, there's a reason why he went in the high second round of the NFL draft despite all of those issues. He is an electric north-south runner whose effortless gliding running style reminds me of David Johnson, albeit without the height/weight and measured explosiveness (good 40 -- bad jumps). There's a lot of risk here, but he can be the type of player who wins the league for you if it clicks.

 

5. WR Corey Davis, Titans - From a metrics standpoint, I'd like to have a 40 time/vertical/broad to look at so I can get a better sense of who he is athletically. While he has good height and range, he isn't a particularly bulky player. However, he appears to have very good speed and vertical explosiveness. He can win with routes, is a catch-and-run threat, and can also win deep. The overall package reminds me of Amari Cooper or Torry Holt. I think he's a relatively safe bet to become a good player and in PPR leagues you can consider him anywhere in the top 5 if you have WR needs.

 

SECOND TIER

6. WR Mike Williams, Chargers - I've never been a big Williams fan, but he was a top 10 NFL draft pick and a productive college player, so you have to put some stock in that. He has good height and his vertical explosiveness for a taller player is noticeable. Williams is like an octopus with the ball in the air, twisting and contorting with his long frame to make difficult catches in tight coverage. If you throw it up to him, there's a good chance that he's going to make the play. That underscores one of his weaknesses though. Williams does not have great separation skills and is somewhat inefficient /messy in his lower body movement. While he seemingly has ideal size for the position, his weight is actually quite low for his height, suggesting more of a finesse/precision play style rather than being a powerhouse like the Fitzgeralds, Marshalls, and V Jacksons of the world. However, his routes are nowhere near as tight as other 26.X BMI WRs like AJ Green and Reggie Wayne. I'm not sure he's going to be able to separate in the NFL. I'm also not sure that he's going to stay healthy, as his long frame seems to get tangled up and expose him. All that said, teams spend lots of money on their personnel departments and they usually have a pretty good sense of what they're doing. The Chargers must see a lot in Williams to have made him a top 10 pick and his game isn't without its major pluses. If it works out for him, he can be something like a Mike Evans type of player. I see him as a risky pick though.

 

7. WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers - A year ago I thought JuJu was the best prospect in this WR/RB class, but I can't quite hold to that evaluation now. For him to have fallen into the late 2nd round of the NFL draft despite a productive career at a major college program suggests that pro scouts weren't wowed by his film. I can't disregard that entirely, but I still like his skill set and feel that he was undervalued in the draft. Most people were mocking him as a first round pick a year ago and he showed the same qualities as a junior at USC, so I think maybe some of the backlash is unjust. At 6' 1 1/4" and 215 pounds, JuJu has the best frame of any WR in this draft. His 28.2 BMI puts him in the same category as other big NFL WRs like Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Michael Crabtree. His 4.54 40 time is not great in a vacuum, but for a player of his size it's right in the range of what you would expect (Dez/Jackson/Hopkins were all low-mid 4.5 guys and Crabtree is certainly no faster). JuJu is dangerous after the catch, can win jump balls, and has enough speed to be a vertical threat when needed. At just 20 years old, he may have some more physical development left in the tank. The biggest knock on him is his inability to separate, but when I watch his clips I see a guy who is very efficient in his movement, can get out of his breaks cleanly, and easily transitions to running after the catch:

 

https://youtu.be/t0iwtyeyonI?t=1m52s

https://youtu.be/t0iwtyeyonI?t=5m46s

https://youtu.be/6kyEA3FbTL8?t=42s


On the surface, the landing spot in Pittsburgh does not seem ideal, but I love it. The Steelers really only have one reliable target in Antonio Brown. Martavis Bryant cannot be trusted and even when he's not suspended, his style as a deep threat does not overlap with JuJu's chain-moving intermediate game. Brown's presence will deflect coverage/attention and allow JuJu to do his thing as a reliable possession/RAC target. I see him as a gritty Hines Ward type for the new age, having a long career as a reliable possession target who puts up some nice FF stats without ever really dominating.

 

8. WR John Ross, Bengals - The NFL seems to put a premium on speed and versatility, which is why burners like Tavon Austin, Will Fuller, Phillip Dorsett, and Brandin Cooks have been coveted in recent drafts. Ross is far more versatile than Fuller or Dorsett, but offers similar potential as a deep threat in conjunction with a better short-intermediate game ala Cooks/Austin. He is blazing fast with pretty good quickness and good receiving skills. However, with his short and relatively lean frame, he may not be ideally suited for a high volume workload. While he was drafted as a top 10 overall pick, his NFL value may exceed his FF value in the sense that he'll open things up for Cincy's star pass catchers (Green/Eifert/possibly Mixon) without actually being the focus of many targets. Austin is a cautionary tale of what can happen to players like this. I could see Ross being a frustrating FF proposition, but the comparisons to DeSean Jackson are apt and his skill set seems capable of yielding many good FF seasons with the right opportunity.

 

9. TE OJ Howard, Buccaneers - Howard has been hyped up as an elite talent for years, but never really lit up the box scores for Alabama during his four seasons with the Tide. Despite that, he still landed in the top 20 of the draft and offers a compelling set of skills for the NFL. Howard is a capable blocker and offers nice mobility as a receiving threat. He is faster and more agile than the typical TE prospect, giving him the potential to develop into a big weapon in the receiving game. Howard can work the middle of the field and take short passes to the house. Even against NFL defenses, his speed and long strides will create problems. I think he's a solid prospect who should be drafted about where his generic variables (NFL draft slot, NFL position) dictate. I've heard some rumors that he's not a hard worker and his stats were never incredible at Bama, so there's a bit of an underachiever vibe here, but when you get beyond the top RB/WR in the draft, he seems like a reasonable gamble. Njoku may end up being better in time.

 

10. TE David Njoku, Browns - A developing talent who is still improving, Njoku seems to have star potential and is one of the more intriguing prospects in this draft. Njoku is "only" about 6'4", but has long strides that seem to chew up turf like an Olympic hurdler. He is a graceful north-south glider who also has some quickness and agility despite his height and length. Njoku has good hands and range, and was explosive on a per-catch-basis in 2016. Njoku is brimming with talent and can become a perennial Pro Bowler in the league if it clicks for him, but you need to decide for yourself how much a TE is worth in your format. Unless it's a TE premium league, you may be better off gambling on a lesser WR or RB even though Njoku is far more likely to pan out at his position. TE is simply not a premium position and it's usually not very hard to find a serviceable-to-good one for your FF team.

 

11. TE Evan Engram, Giants - Running a 4.42 at 6'3" and 234 pounds, Engram is a height/weight/speed specimen who would seem to present a matchup nightmare for defenses. Too big for DBs and too fast for linebackers. I was impressed with his work at the combine, where he really shined in the drills. After taking a longer look at him though, I'm not sure he's going to dominate quite as much as you might think. Despite his tangible athleticism, Engram is not necessarily a dynamic player on the field. While he is crisp and efficient in his routes, you don't see the flashes of dominance that you'd expect. He has better measurables than Jordan Reed and Aaron Hernandez, but doesn't make people miss in space like they did in college. A four year collegiate, he didn't really put up huge numbers until his senior season. He's two years older than Njoku, yet NJoku managed to get drafted almost as high despite leaving college after his third season. If Engram had left last year, he likely would've been a 2nd-3rd rounder. On paper he's going to step into the dynamic Giants offense and immediately become their mismatch chess piece as a nominal TE who will actually function more like a slot WR. It could be FF gold, but I still look at Engram as a merely "good" prospect and not necessarily a great one.

 

THIRD TIER

12. RB Samaje Perine, Redskins - There's not a lot of mystery to Samaje Perine's game. He's a one-gear power runner with nice balance and just enough agility. Perine is not going to win a lot of races against NFL defenses, but he's built low and compact with an extremely powerful frame. While he struggles to elude at full speed, he has nimble feet and can make east-west cuts early in the play. The overall package reminds me of Rudi Johnson or a less juiced Ricky Williams. Perine's questionable third down ability and lack of explosiveness keep him from being a top tier option, but he can be a two down thumper who amasses multiple 1000+ yard seasons if things break right for him. The lack of top upside might scare me off in 1RB leagues, but in deeper 2RB formats he becomes a solid candidate outside the elite prospects in this draft.

 

13. RB D'Onta Foreman, Texans - A solid power back with good north-south speed and adequate quickness. His speed really stands out for a big back and is the one thing that keeps him from being a 4th-5th round "JAG" type. He should be able to come in and compete for a spot from day one. If he wins the job, I think he can be a reasonably productive thumper. Good pick in 2RB leagues and for contenders looking for an immediate shot in the arm. Likely not an elite player in the long term.

 

14. RB Kareem Hunt, Chiefs - I studied Hunt extensively two years ago when he was in the midst of a huge sophomore season at Toledo. He has a compelling skill set. Hunt looks much bigger than his 216 pound listed weight, shedding tackles with lower body strength and determination. While not a burner, he has better game speed than his 4.62 40 time would indicate. Hunt was a standout regional level track athlete in high school, jumping 6'8" in the high jump and 23'3" in the broad jump. The Chiefs traded up to get him and he could end up being their starter as early as this season. Overall, Hunt is a poor man's Todd Gurley with a similar strengths/weaknesses profile. Both have power and speed with marginal avoidance skills. Hunt's cuts/footwork are not always clean and I believe he will be more injury prone than average in the NFL, but he's a three down back capable of handling a large workload in spurts.

 

15. RB Alvin Kamara, Saints - Kamara is a versatile back whose high draft slot reinforces the NFL's growing infatuation with hybrid mismatch players. While he is an intriguing talent as a 215 pounder with good receiving skills, he's not Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles good as a receiving weapon and is largely unproven as a ball carrier, having been used sparingly in college. His overall package of skills reminds me of CJ Prosise from the 2016 draft. Both guys combine height/weight with receiving ability, but neither really looks like an obvious starter. It could happen for Kamara, but I view him as a boom-or-bust pick and the biggest wild card of the third round backs from this draft.

 

16. QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs - The book on him is that he's a raw gunslinger with an elite arm and natural pocket sense. He has a big frame, but is not a great athlete. He will force throws and trusts his arm/instincts a little more than he should. People invoke Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler as frequent comparisons. The strengths/weaknesses also remind me of Ben Roethlisberger.

 

17. QB Mitch Trubisky, Bears - I don't know a lot about him, but wasn't impressed in the bowl game. With only one year of experience under his belt, he sprung for the money instead of staying in college and trying to improve. His deep ball accuracy is said to be spotty. My take on him isn't backed up by any thorough film study or analysis, but he has the feel of a bust to me. The Bears are a terrible team and this looks like another poor decision.

 

18. QB Deshaun Watson, Texans - Again, I haven't spent a lot of time studying the QBs this year and my rankings of them are not very nuanced of informed. That said, he never looked like an elite NFL QB to me at Clemson. Surely he's better than what the Texans have at the moment, but since Mahomes was the higher pick and seems the more compelling prospect despite having a lower ADP, I'm always going to draft him instead of Watson in my leagues.

 

FOURTH TIER

 

19. WR Curtis Samuel, Panthers - Samuel is an explosive athlete who should enhance Carolina's offense with his speed and versatility. The issue with him is whether or not he'll be more than a gadget player. I don't see him being able to handle a high volume of carries and I'm not sure he's going to be a complete enough WR to generate relevant FF value on receiving alone. So while you almost have to take him here based on his athleticism and high draft position, you may be getting another Tavon Austin or Dexter McCluster type of guy whose versatility never really translates into useful FF numbers. In a more optimistic scenario, Samuel could develop into a dangerous chess piece who gets 6-8 carries and another 4-5 receptions per week to be a pest in PPR formats.

 

20. WR Amara Darboh, Seahawks - Every year there are some lesser prospects who catch your eye and become personal favorites. Darboh is one of those this year. The best way for me to describe him is that he just looks like an NFL WR. He has a sturdy frame, excellent body control, and is a precise athlete with a good ability to separate in his routes. His body type and ability to separate with quickness remind me of Allen Robinson, though he isn't as dominant in general or as loose after the catch. He consistently improved at Michigan and his production in 2016 was deceptively good when you account for the fact that Michigan ranked 92nd out of 128 D1 programs in pass attempts. He can win on short routes and has some downfield game as well. While his game lacks the flash or dominant traits of a #1 NFL WR, he seems like a good candidate to become a productive complementary target on Sundays. The best comparison I can think of is Reggie Wayne. There are some negatives though. He lacks a bit of burst off the snap and does not necessarily play up to his 4.45 40 time. He will drop some passes here and there. At 23 years old, he will be an over-aged rookie and may have peaked physically. Seattle is a bit of a WR graveyard and is not ideal for yielding good FF stats compared with better fits for Darboh like Indianapolis or Green Bay. That being said, I'll gladly take a chance on him in deep leagues at his current rookie ADP, which seems to be well outside the top 25.

 

21. WR Taywan Taylor, Titans - Taylor caught my eye two years ago at Western Kentucky and has always looked like a potential NFL talent. He is a very good athlete who can separate from defenders on any type of route. His playing speed is better than his 4.50 40 time would indicate. He is a vertical threat and can also do damage in the short-intermediate game. While he lacks height, he has a solid frame to hold up in the NFL. The Titans lost Kendall Wright in the offseason and in Taylor they are getting a very similar replacement. That's both a good and bad thing. Kendall Wright was a decent player in Tennessee, but even his best season was only marginally useful for FF purposes. Taylor could end up much the same. I think he has the talent to contribute in the league, but whether or not his role will be enough to make him fantasy relevant is more questionable.

 

22. WR Zay Jones, Bills - The Bills just fired their whole scouting department and I can't say I'm very surprised. Their track record of identifying talent is spotty and they've been particularly wasteful at WR, where they've used a lot of draft capital on guys like Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, TJ Graham, and Marquise Goodwin without getting great return on their investment. Unfortunately, I don't expect Zay Jones to reverse the trend. While he is tall and productive with good route skills and explosive leaping ability, Jones has a toothpick thin frame and does not look to me like a guy who will be able to thrive against NFL defenders. Supporters could point to AJ Green as an optimistic comparison of a thin WR who wins with range and route running, but my hunch is that he'll go more in the direction of Josh Doctson or Justin Hunter.

 

23. TE Gerald Everett, Rams - I've tried to watch clips of Everett, but there's not a wealth of video available given that he comes from a small program. From what I've seen he looks neither really good nor really bad, but merely average for a 2nd-3rd round NFL TE prospect. His combine metrics are impressive and he goes to a Rams team in desperate need of playmakers, so I'm willing to take a chance on him if the price is right. It's not easy to get picked in the top 50 out of a small school as a TE, so the Rams must really covet Everett. This feels like the right range for him in rookie drafts.

 

24. RB Jamaal Williams, Packers - Williams has pedestrian physical measurables, but reminds a bit of Cadillac Williams in terms of being a lighter back who runs with tenacity, authority, and determination. He has active feet and hips, and can make good cuts. Ty Montgomery is an interesting athlete, but he might not be suited to anything more than a part-time role. That could open the door for Williams to be the main ball carrier for Green Bay as early as next season. I think he has the potential to be productive. The issue with guys like this who are borderline talents is that any signing/draft pick can be a threat to their workload. While I like Williams a little bit, I don't see him as an obvious starter in the NFL, especially long-term.

 

WAIVER GEM:


RB Devante Mays, Packers - Mays is not an elite talent and like all late picks is more likely to fail than succeed, but Green Bay's 7th rounder was an intriguing selection who has some CJ Anderson traits as a compact power back with reasonably smooth sideways quickness and cutting ability. Everyone is focusing on Williams and Aaron Brown in this competition, but Mays has the potential to beat both of them out and is a must-add as a 4th+ round rookie pick or UDFA if you are trying to lock up this backfield. Even if you have no ownership stake in this backfield, I recommend adding him in deeper leagues and monitoring his preseason performance in case he pulls a Pierre Thomas/CJ Anderson here.

 

 

OTHERS:

 

RB Marlon Mack, Colts - Mack is a somewhat lean glider with borderline explosiveness. Basically a poor man's version of Dalvin Cook. He may be good enough to thrive in spurts, but if you are looking for Indy's long term RB then I think you can keep searching.

 

RB Wayne Gallman, Giants - The Giants don't have much at RB and that hasn't changed with the drafting of Gallman. He is competitive, but the physical tools are marginal.

 

WR Chris Godwin, Buccaneers - He's not bad, but I don't see any special qualities either. I think he's strictly a supporting piece in the NFL. The same could probably be said for Taylor and Darboh, but they pop for me a bit more when I watch their clips.

 

WR Carlos Henderson, Broncos - He has vertical explosiveness and may be viewed as the eventual replacement for Emmanuel Sanders. There's a similarity there. Henderson hit a lot of big plays in college and is a reasonable gamble in the 15-25 range if you like what he does. I think he's a bit one-dimensional and prefer others to him, but I think he has a chance.

 

WR Ardarius Stewart, Jets - Not hopeless, but not a guy I expect to draft in many leagues. Competitive player with some decent traits, but I'll be surprised if he tops out as anything more than a 700-800 yard type of guy in the NFL. If you want an optimistic comparison, the Jets did pretty well many years ago with another speedy WR from a big college program in the South who was overshadowed by his NCAA teammates (Laveranues Coles).

 

WR Chad Williams, Cardinals - I don't know much about him and the clips I've seen don't really stand out to me as being exceptional. That being said, the Cardinals have a pretty decent track record with small school guys in the third round (David Johnson, John Brown) and Williams consistently falls to an ADP range in my rookie drafts where he starts to look like good value based solely on the generic traits.

 

WR Cooper Kupp, Rams - Disastrous athletic metrics despite his illustrious college career. I don't love his clips and I don't trust the Rams enough to value their assessment of him independent of the other variables.

 

TE Jonnu Smith, Titans - An above average athlete who shows some flashes after the catch. He has a chance to develop into a useful FF player, but doesn't seem ready to contribute and may not have a huge ceiling. I think if he works out he'll be a 600-800 yard TE, not a guy who ever really dominates. Do you want to wait 2-3 years for another Charles Clay? In TE premium leagues he might be worth it, but in shallower leagues I'd rather have the roster spot.

 

TE Jake Butt, Broncos - Solid player without exceptional athletic traits. Kind of a lesser Jason Witten. I think he has a chance to be a productive starter, but it will take patience and the Graham/Gronk ceiling isn't there.

 

Edited by EBF
  • Like 21
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another thing I do each year is track the # of times I roster certain players in my rookie drafts. This year I also included dev holdovers for my dev leagues.

I've done 6 out of 7 rookie drafts this year. Here is who I have so far, in addition to who I got in previous years:

 

2017

PATRICK MAHOMES - 5
DEVANTE MAYS - 5
JUJU SMITH - 5

-------------------------------
AMARA DARBOH - 4

-------------------------------
JOE MIXON - 3

------------------------------

GERALD EVERETT - 2
CHAD WILLIAMS - 2

------------------------------
DALVIN COOK - 1
BUCKY HODGES - 1
KAREEM HUNT - 1
SAMAJE PERINE - 1
JOHN ROSS - 1
JONNU SMITH - 1
JAMAAL WILLIAMS - 1

 

 

2016

MORITZ BOEHRINGER - 5

----------------------------------
HUNTER HENRY - 4

-------------------------------------
CARSON WENTZ - 3
KOLBY LISTENBEE - 3

--------------------------------
KENYAN DRAKE - 2
EZEKIEL ELLIOTT - 2
JARED GOFF - 2

------------------------------
PAXTON LYNCH - 1
LAQUON TREADWELL - 1
JONATHAN WILLIAMS - 1

 

2015

TY MONTGOMERY - 7

---------------------------------
PHILLIP DORSETT - 6
DEANDRE SMELTER - 6

------------------------------------
GARRETT GRAYSON - 4

--------------------------------
KEVIN WHITE - 3

-------------------------------
AMEER ABDULLAH - 1
AMARI COOPER - 1
STEFON DIGGS - 1
MICHAEL DYER - 1
DEVIN FUNCHESS - 1
MELVIN GORDON - 1

 

2014

ERIC EBRON - 5

-------------------
TRE MASON - 4
ALLEN ROBINSON - 4

-------------------------------
BLAKE BORTLES - 1
MIKE EVANS - 1
JIMMY GAROPPOLO - 1
JEREMY HILL - 1
JERICK MCKINNON - 1
DONTE MONCRIEF - 1
PAUL RICHARDSON - 1
LACHE SEASTRUNK - 1
TERRANCE WEST - 1
ANDRE WILLIAMS - 1

Edited by EBF
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have been warming up to Juju Smith-Shuster since early reactions. That was my favorite part of your write up. 

I can't say I have heard someone describe Kareem Hunt as similar to Gurley before. He does have some nice power at times, but I don't think that is the main strength of his game. That isn't the reason I think Hunt will be a successful NFL RB.  I also haven't heard anyone describe Hunt as having marginal avoidance skills. I think his ability to make defenders miss is greater than his ability to run defenders over. So kind of the opposite strengths in his game for me. A broken tackle is a broken tackle though no matter how the RB gets that done. Perhaps that just shows that Hunt has some well rounded overall game that different strengths of his would stand out to different people.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I have been warming up to Juju Smith-Shuster since early reactions. That was my favorite part of your write up. 

I can't say I have heard someone describe Kareem Hunt as similar to Gurley before. He does have some nice power at times, but I don't think that is the main strength of his game. That isn't the reason I think Hunt will be a successful NFL RB.  I also haven't heard anyone describe Hunt as having marginal avoidance skills. I think his ability to make defenders miss is greater than his ability to run defenders over. So kind of the opposite strengths in his game for me. A broken tackle is a broken tackle though no matter how the RB gets that done. Perhaps that just shows that Hunt has some well rounded overall game that different strengths of his would stand out to different people.

Hunt had nearly 1,000 yds after contact. He had an elusive rating of 112.1 ranked him 3rd among all FBS running backs with a minimum of 187 carries.

I have him #7 overall.

Tex

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

I have been warming up to Juju Smith-Shuster since early reactions. That was my favorite part of your write up. 

 

His youth gives him some nice room to grow as a player.  He's still going to be 20 deep into his rookie season.  11/22/96. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Teams don't draft anyone thinking he's going to be a bust, so whether or not the 49ers like Joe Williams isn't a big selling point for me. I don't think Williams has much chance of being a long-term factor in the NFL and I'm generally pretty reluctant to use a top 24 rookie pick on a guy who is all opportunity. This is a DEEP draft. There were 34 rookie QB/RB/WR/TE picked in the first three rounds (though some of those only snuck into the 3rd because of the compensatory picks). Point being, there are a lot of quality prospects to choose from this year. I'm seeing people like Mahomes, Everett, and Darboh fall into the 3rd-4th round of some of my drafts, so for me there are always too many players I actually like available for me to bother with guys who look like opportunity JAGs (Mack, Gallman, Joe Williams).

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, EBF said:

This is a DEEP draft. There were 34 rookie QB/RB/WR/TE picked in the first three rounds (though some of those only snuck into the 3rd because of the compensatory picks).

Also a historic runs on DBs in the midst of all that. But less OL as well. If you've got Joe Williams as a JAG that's fine. Great insights and thanks for the writeup. I probably spend a back end 2nd rounder on him. If I miss so be it. I'm a sucker for coaches that handpick RBs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm assuming these are rankings that you follow closely when you're on the clock which makes me surprised that you'd put 4 RB's ahead of Corey Davis.  Unless it's start 3+ RB I'd have a hard time putting him below any RB this year.  

I'm a fan of JuJu as well and have him right about where you do too.  Nice list.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I'm assuming these are rankings that you follow closely when you're on the clock which makes me surprised that you'd put 4 RB's ahead of Corey Davis.  Unless it's start 3+ RB I'd have a hard time putting him below any RB this year. 

 

Top 5 are all pretty even for me and I specifically said I'd think about Davis as high as 1.01 if I needed WR help in PPR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

Any thoughts on Adam Shaheen? 

It's hard to evaluate him because his level of competition was appallingly low, almost like watching him against high schoolers. For how big he is, he moves well. He's almost OT size, but he is not sluggish. He runs and moves okay, though his flat out speed is average at best. He's aggressive after the catch, which could work out nicely in the NFL. He's going to be a load running at that size. He'll also be a presence in the red zone. Like Rudolph, he lacks a bit of sheer sprint speed. Both are right around the 4.80 mark in the 40, which is not the time you want for a TE these days. But...for a big guy it's motoring.


Overall, I'm thinking more of a Kyle Rudolph ceiling than a Gronk ceiling, but he at least looks like an interesting prospect.

Edited by EBF
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, EBF said:

22. WR Zay Jones, Bills - The Bills just fired their whole scouting department and I can't say I'm very surprised. Their track record of identifying talent is spotty and they've been particularly wasteful at WR, where they've used a lot of draft capital on guys like Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, TJ Graham, and Marquise Goodwin without getting great return on their investment. Unfortunately, I don't expect Zay Jones to reverse the trend. While he is tall and productive with good route skills and explosive leaping ability, Jones has a toothpick thin frame and does not look to me like a guy who will be able to thrive against NFL defenders. Supporters could point to AJ Green as an optimistic comparison of a thin WR who wins with range and route running, but my hunch is that he'll go more in the direction of Josh Doctson or Justin Hunter.

I always enjoy the read because we focus on such different things when evaluating players.  I won't harp on situation, because I know that's not a big part of your evaluation, but I'd add a couple things for zay that may be relevant to your style.

First, his frame.  We seem to agree that he's got good height, speed and :explosive leaping", but you seem down on his frame.  But I think you have to expect him to pack on some muscle in the nfl. He played in a small school program and didn't have access to the best nutrition, weight training, etc.  So he could add some weight with access to a well funded NFL program.  He also is coming off a record setting season - his weight was probably already low headed into the off season, so why put it back on when you're speed training. I'm not apologizing for him - i just think you should probably adjust your bmi numbers for small school players a little of you don't already. 

Second is coachability. Again,  I think we usually assume small school guys have more room to be coached up, and can add a little to their frame, but their production is overrated, and the opposite is true for big program guys like oj Howard. 

With zay though I discount that a lot, because he set a personal goal of breaking college records,  and achieved it.  Which is great,  but I think oj Howard could have set college records if he'd gone to a small school too. Going into the NFL draft,  my thought was that he was going to be overrated and I wasn't interested.  

But then he ended up in buffalo.  Where his college coach is now the receivers coach.  And to prepare for his record breaking season, they worked on the full NFL route tree, which means zay should be able to do everything he will be asked to do in his new offense 

Three, buffalo is sending strong signals about their expectations for him.  They traded up specifically to get him, but more importantly,  they traded into the early second,  which are usually especially expensive picks because lots of teams are jockeying for the guys who "should have" gone in the first, after teams tried to move into the late first to get the fifth year option on their rookies.  So they really wanted him. 

 At the same time, they didn't pick up the option on Watkins.  Which may just be an injury hedge,  but it also means that they're willing to risk letting him walk (or franchise him). Which means they may feel like zay could be their wr1 of the future, either because they let Watkins walk, or they give the new kid the volume because they're not comfortable building an offense around an injury prone Watkins. 

Of course,  they might just suck at evaluating receiver talent, too. But they seem to be expecting a lot from Jones.  And he seems to be well suited to grow into the role physically and mentally, looks to be an immediate starter for the bills, and he is set up well to be a first year breakout. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One guy I'd expect you to like is Kenny Golladay.  Small school guy, six foot four, 4.5 40, 35.5 vertical, good agility,  has weighed in at 194 to 215 lbs so his bmi numbers should be good. He doesn't run great routes, but as a small school guy with his size and speed,  he probably didn't have to, because he could beat guys without being a technician.  Which means he should have lots of room to get coached up. I have really low expectations for year one but if you've got a roster spot he seems like a high upside guy a la Tyrell Williams in year 2+.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, squistion said:

Maybe, but I guess you didn't read SI's Peter King article where he spent the day in the SFO war room during the draft and that Shanahan said (paraphrasing) he would be sick if they didn't take Williams. Williams had been taken off their draft board by Lynch, but because of Shanahan's comments, Lynch then gave him a personal call and was so impressed with his explanation for his difficulties that they put him back on the draft board and even traded up to take him in the 4th round.

The new regime has already expressed doubts about Hyde and Williams is Shanahan's guy so he will be given every chance to succeed. This is not your typical 4th round pick and one of the reasons looking at context with every player is always so important.

And for what it is worth, Bloom (who knows just a little something about rookies) has him at #15 overall in his most recent rankings.

I don't think the Joe Williams fans are properly accounting for Breida and Yearby,  Does Williams have more draft capital?  Sure.  Is he significantly better than the two udfa's?  I don't think so.  Which means they're all easily replaceable and in the same room only create a cloudy picture in the meantime.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

One guy I'd expect you to like is Kenny Golladay.  Small school guy, six foot four, 4.5 40, 35.5 vertical, good agility,  has weighed in at 194 to 215 lbs so his bmi numbers should be good. He doesn't run great routes, but as a small school guy with his size and speed,  he probably didn't have to, because he could beat guys without being a technician.  Which means he should have lots of room to get coached up. I have really low expectations for year one but if you've got a roster spot he seems like a high upside guy a la Tyrell Williams in year 2+.

I don't disagree with any of that, but Golladay is the same age now that Tyrell Williams was when he broke out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks for posting your previous drafts, it's informative to see how your analysis has worked in the past.

Also, I think James Conner is worth a top 24 pick.  I'm not enamored with his talent, but Big Ben championed the pick and Bell goes down with an injury almost every year, so the backup in Pitt has value.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

One guy I'd expect you to like is Kenny Golladay.  Small school guy, six foot four, 4.5 40, 35.5 vertical, good agility,  has weighed in at 194 to 215 lbs so his bmi numbers should be good. He doesn't run great routes, but as a small school guy with his size and speed,  he probably didn't have to, because he could beat guys without being a technician.  Which means he should have lots of room to get coached up. I have really low expectations for year one but if you've got a roster spot he seems like a high upside guy a la Tyrell Williams in year 2+.

Golladay is skinny for his height (26.7 BMI -- close to the AJ Green level). His speed is okay and his length is an asset, but I don't see him really winning a lot against NFL corners or being a great RAC guy. Tall and skinny with mediocre movement reminds me of past busts like Aaron Dobson. ~65% of 2nd-3rd round picks will be FF busts and I feel fairly comfortable putting him in that group.

 

As for Jones, I don't really buy the weight gain argument and I'm just not a believer in his game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

I don't disagree with any of that, but Golladay is the same age now that Tyrell Williams was when he broke out.

Just an FYI Golladay will be 23, not 24, entering his rookie season.  His birthday was incorrectly posted by Rotoworld, which had worried me as well.  H/T to member Run It Up who found this article, indicating Golladay turned 22 on 11/3/15.

http://niu.sidearmsports.com/news/2015/11/3/NIU_COMES_BACK_TO_DEFEAT_NO_20_TOLEDO_32_27.aspx

So that would put Golladay on the same age track as Tyrell, FWIW.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting read.  Always like to read different people's viewpoints, especially when they post year after year.  That way, it's easier to benchmark how they view players and one is then able to get a sense of that person's track record.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, bostonfred said:

I always enjoy the read because we focus on such different things when evaluating players.  I won't harp on situation, because I know that's not a big part of your evaluation, but I'd add a couple things for zay that may be relevant to your style.

First, his frame.  We seem to agree that he's got good height, speed and :explosive leaping", but you seem down on his frame.  But I think you have to expect him to pack on some muscle in the nfl. He played in a small school program and didn't have access to the best nutrition, weight training, etc.  So he could add some weight with access to a well funded NFL program.  He also is coming off a record setting season - his weight was probably already low headed into the off season, so why put it back on when you're speed training. I'm not apologizing for him - i just think you should probably adjust your bmi numbers for small school players a little of you don't already. 

Second is coachability. Again,  I think we usually assume small school guys have more room to be coached up, and can add a little to their frame, but their production is overrated, and the opposite is true for big program guys like oj Howard. 

With zay though I discount that a lot, because he set a personal goal of breaking college records,  and achieved it.  Which is great,  but I think oj Howard could have set college records if he'd gone to a small school too. Going into the NFL draft,  my thought was that he was going to be overrated and I wasn't interested.  

But then he ended up in buffalo.  Where his college coach is now the receivers coach.  And to prepare for his record breaking season, they worked on the full NFL route tree, which means zay should be able to do everything he will be asked to do in his new offense 

Three, buffalo is sending strong signals about their expectations for him.  They traded up specifically to get him, but more importantly,  they traded into the early second,  which are usually especially expensive picks because lots of teams are jockeying for the guys who "should have" gone in the first, after teams tried to move into the late first to get the fifth year option on their rookies.  So they really wanted him. 

 At the same time, they didn't pick up the option on Watkins.  Which may just be an injury hedge,  but it also means that they're willing to risk letting him walk (or franchise him). Which means they may feel like zay could be their wr1 of the future, either because they let Watkins walk, or they give the new kid the volume because they're not comfortable building an offense around an injury prone Watkins. 

Of course,  they might just suck at evaluating receiver talent, too. But they seem to be expecting a lot from Jones.  And he seems to be well suited to grow into the role physically and mentally, looks to be an immediate starter for the bills, and he is set up well to be a first year breakout. 

:goodposting: Thanks the interesting background information. As I have been saying since a thread someone started about Forte in 2009, context is everything. What you have had to say has increased my interest in this player.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, squistion said:

:goodposting: Thanks the interesting background information. As I have been saying since a thread someone started about Forte in 2009, context is everything. What you have had to say has increased my interest in this player.

Yup, that was a good post for sure, and a great thread.  Much love for EBF for putting this stuff out there.

EBF (or others) - Interested to hear why Aaron Jones was not added to the list, even as an afterthought like Mack and Gallman, or a waiver gem like his UDFA backfield mate, Mays.  I have seen a lot of positive stuff about him on these boards, his measureables seem strong, and the backfield in GB is wide open.  Was it an oversight, or do you think it's fool's gold?

Edited by ChuckLiddell
ETA - Just saw this...my bad - "As for Jones, I don't really buy the weight gain argument and I'm just not a believer in his game. "
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, EBF said:

13. RB D'Onta Foreman, Texans - A solid power back with good north-south speed and adequate quickness. His speed really stands out for a big back and is the one thing that keeps him from being a 4th-5th round "JAG" type. He should be able to come in and compete for a spot from day one. If he wins the job, I think he can be a reasonably productive thumper. Good pick in 2RB leagues and for contenders looking for an immediate shot in the arm. Likely not an elite player in the long term.

Fantastic work, as always. Just curious about the last statement. Very, very few become elite long-term players, so that doesn't say too much. What do you do see as the likely outcome for Foreman? Long-term starter but not elite? Starter for a brief period before being replaced? Career backup with the occasional stint of starts?

Foreman is a player that seems so undervalued me. Incredible production, great combination of size, speed, and agility, and a team that likes to run it. He's in an elite group of 2,000 yard rushers in FBS.

The only two negatives I see are 1) Lack of production receiving in college. 2) Lamar Miller set as the starter. His lack of receiving production seems entirely tied to the system, rather than being something he has had the opportunity to do and failed. No Texas RB has caught many passes as of late. I expect his receiving ability to be better than touted a la Jordan Howard last year. As for Miller, the recent blurbs from Houston point to a timeshare between Foreman and Miller. Coaches have talked about easing Miller's workload and "spell"ing him for D'Onta.

If there is any Jordan Howard at RB this year, I'm putting my money down big time on D'Onta Foreman.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Feel like you're playing coy on Joe Williams. 

1) Slipped not because of talent but due to off field incidents.

2) It's not a team that loved him it's the head coach that loved him. A head coach whose running game can be traced all the way back to his father for turning guys like Reuben Draughns, Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson into one and done studs and guys like Clinton Portis, Terrell Davis, Arian Foster and Davote Freeman into juggernauts.

3) His easiest comparison to me is Tevin Coleman and I think most around here were drooling for Coleman to get a full assortment of carries in that offense.

4) While I myself am a fan of Carlos Hyde, the 49ers do not seem to be right now. He is one year away from potentially carrying the load in a run heavy offense or one Hyde injury away from having the opportunity to.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, mikel2014 said:

Fantastic work, as always. Just curious about the last statement. Very, very few become elite long-term players, so that doesn't say too much. What do you do see as the likely outcome for Foreman? Long-term starter but not elite? Starter for a brief period before being replaced? Career backup with the occasional stint of starts?

Foreman is a player that seems so undervalued me. Incredible production, great combination of size, speed, and agility, and a team that likes to run it. He's in an elite group of 2,000 yard rushers in FBS.

I think the range of career outcomes will be anywhere from useful committee back to decent starter. He could end up being similar to what Mendenhall was during his Pittsburgh years. I would not say his agility is great and even though I described him as a thumper, he's not really a super strong runner for his size. He likes to get a seam and run north-south. A lot of his big plays in college were just straight sprints through gaping holes. In the NFL I think the ability to create your own yards is stressed a lot more than in college. He's pretty nimble for a big back and has okay feet, but he's not an open field jukes kind of guy. Those things keep me from putting him in the elite class. He's good, but I don't think he's great.

 

Had he come out last year he would have been ranked higher, but this is a much deeper RB group. Someone has to fall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

Feel like you're playing coy on Joe Williams. 

1) Slipped not because of talent but due to off field incidents.

2) It's not a team that loved him it's the head coach that loved him. A head coach whose running game can be traced all the way back to his father for turning guys like Reuben Draughns, Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson into one and done studs and guys like Clinton Portis, Terrell Davis, Arian Foster and Davote Freeman into juggernauts.

3) His easiest comparison to me is Tevin Coleman and I think most around here were drooling for Coleman to get a full assortment of carries in that offense.

4) While I myself am a fan of Carlos Hyde, the 49ers do not seem to be right now. He is one year away from potentially carrying the load in a run heavy offense or one Hyde injury away from having the opportunity to.

1. Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook had huge red flags and still went in the top 50. I don't buy that excuse completely.

 

2. The Broncos were famous for getting production from late round backs, but...they were also famous for being incredibly hard to figure out from year-to-year. I see Williams as a JAG, and unless he's wildly successful, nothing will stop Denver from drafting a Royce Freeman/Nick Chubb/Saquon Barkley/Darrius Guice next year when 10-15 backs who are equally or more talented than Williams declare for the draft.

 

3. I didn't like Coleman coming out and, even though he's a useful player for Atlanta, he has not put up any valuable FF seasons so far. I don't view that comparison as a strong endorsement. Like Coleman, Williams is a sprinter who lacks base strength, run strength, and agility. Personally, I've never been drawn to straight-line backs in general, as I prefer backs who are elusive and shifty.

 

4. Same point as #2. I don't like to spend high rookie picks on non-premium prospects because their opportunity looks good. Opportunity is fleeting. If I don't believe the player has the goods, I will not use a high pick on him. Simple as that. Sometimes I miss out on a Jordan Howard or Jay Ajayi, but I also miss out on a lot of guys like Paul Perkins, Wendell Smallwood, Bishop Sankey, David Cobb, and Buck Allen. If a player doesn't pass the sniff test for me, I'm not going to pick him unless the price is really cheap.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, ChuckLiddell said:

Yup, that was a good post for sure, and a great thread.  Much love for EBF for putting this stuff out there.

EBF (or others) - Interested to hear why Aaron Jones was not added to the list, even as an afterthought like Mack and Gallman, or a waiver gem like his UDFA backfield mate, Mays.  I have seen a lot of positive stuff about him on these boards, his measureables seem strong, and the backfield in GB is wide open.  Was it an oversight, or do you think it's fool's gold?

You can put him in Mack/Gallman territory. He's no worse than those guys.


That being said, Jones has gone in the top 30 of the two most recent drafts I was involved in. Mays, on the other hand, always goes undrafted until whenever I take him. The two variables that determine who ends up on my rosters are:

1. How much I like the player.

2. His ADP.

I'm not sky high on players like Chad Williams or Devante Mays, but their ADP makes them appealing because they usually fall to a point where they look like value. On the other hand, I don't see Jones in the top 30 as value. I understand the logic because that situation is wide open, but he might only be the fourth most talented RB on the Packers and his price tag means you're passing up some pretty good prospects to roll the dice on him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, EBF said:

It's hard to evaluate him because his level of competition was appallingly low, almost like watching him against high schoolers. For how big he is, he moves well. He's almost OT size, but he is not sluggish. He runs and moves okay, though his flat out speed is average at best. He's aggressive after the catch, which could work out nicely in the NFL. He's going to be a load running at that size. He'll also be a presence in the red zone. Like Rudolph, he lacks a bit of sheer sprint speed. Both are right around the 4.80 mark in the 40, which is not the time you want for a TE these days. But...for a big guy it's motoring.


Overall, I'm thinking more of a Kyle Rudolph ceiling than a Gronk ceiling, but he at least looks like an interesting prospect.

Was about to ask the same question about Shaheen. I'll take a kyle rudolph at his current price. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, EBF said:

1. Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook had huge red flags and still went in the top 50. I don't buy that excuse completely.

 

2. The Broncos were famous for getting production from late round backs, but...they were also famous for being incredibly hard to figure out from year-to-year. I see Williams as a JAG, and unless he's wildly successful, nothing will stop Denver from drafting a Royce Freeman/Nick Chubb/Saquon Barkley/Darrius Guice next year when 10-15 backs who are equally or more talented than Williams declare for the draft.

 

3. I didn't like Coleman coming out and, even though he's a useful player for Atlanta, he has not put up any valuable FF seasons so far. I don't view that comparison as a strong endorsement. Like Coleman, Williams is a sprinter who lacks base strength, run strength, and agility. Personally, I've never been drawn to straight-line backs in general, as I prefer backs who are elusive and shifty.

 

4. Same point as #2. I don't like to spend high rookie picks on non-premium prospects because their opportunity looks good. Opportunity is fleeting. If I don't believe the player has the goods, I will not use a high pick on him. Simple as that. Sometimes I miss out on a Jordan Howard or Jay Ajayi, but I also miss out on a lot of guys like Paul Perkins, Wendell Smallwood, Bishop Sankey, David Cobb, and Buck Allen. If a player doesn't pass the sniff test for me, I'm not going to pick him unless the price is really cheap.

I think your logical reasoning is questionable at best. You don't believe that Donta Foreman is not an elite player in the long term yet his situation is written about as gold. Lamar Miller still has a foothold there last I checked, but I don't even disagree with you on that ranking but I have far more positive things to say about someone who scratched the first round in this very deep class. 

Its more that you've dismissed Joe Williams all together, it's a horrible way to give someone perspective. I fail to even see how Gallman or Mack's situation is better and they are far worse backs in both raw athleticism and running ability.

I don't want to miss out on anyone. Missing out on Ajayi or Howard is a big deal. You mention the litany of runners coming out next year but Shanahan is never going to invest higher than a 2nd at RB and if that's the case it's going to be a Clinton Portis who is arguably one of the most athletic players to ever play the position.

Your rankings are your rankings, and the criticism actually comes from a place of respect as I know people will read this and take stock in it. I just think it's bullheaded to ignore a player like Williams when Gallman, Mack and Mays get mentions. I mean I look at the guy and know with his style he could light up preseason and I'm holding enough stock to make a move on a high uptick. That screams value. To each his own though, perhaps apples to oranges in dynasty styles.

Edited by Bojang0301
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, bostonfred said:

First, his frame.  We seem to agree that he's got good height, speed and :explosive leaping", but you seem down on his frame.  But I think you have to expect him to pack on some muscle in the nfl. He played in a small school program and didn't have access to the best nutrition, weight training, etc.  So he could add some weight with access to a well funded NFL program.  He also is coming off a record setting season - his weight was probably already low headed into the off season, so why put it back on when you're speed training. I'm not apologizing for him - i just think you should probably adjust your bmi numbers for small school players a little of you don't already. 

Second is coachability. Again,  I think we usually assume small school guys have more room to be coached up, and can add a little to their frame, but their production is overrated, and the opposite is true for big program guys like oj Howard. 

With zay though I discount that a lot, because he set a personal goal of breaking college records,  and achieved it.  Which is great,  but I think oj Howard could have set college records if he'd gone to a small school too. Going into the NFL draft,  my thought was that he was going to be overrated and I wasn't interested.  

You keep referring to Zay's college as a small school, but East Carolina is the second largest university in North Carolina.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

By what metric? It is 5th largest in terms of number of students, at least according to this source.

I guess it depends on what you read. The last several years it was behind NC State as the 2nd largest.  This was posted on May 4th of this year: Greenville, North Carolina is the home of East Carolina University, the second-largest university and fastest-growing campus in the University of North Carolina system. The university provides outstanding cultural programming and the excitement of a nationally recognized division 1-A sports program.   Wikipedia says it is the third largest, although last year it said it was the second largest.    Another East Carolina University is a public, coeducational research university located in Greenville, North Carolina. The school is the largest institution of higher learning in the region and, according to US News and World Report, the second-largest university in the state. It has held the title of the fastest-growing campus in the University of North Carolina system for six consecutive years.

Whether it is second or third largest now, it isn't a small school.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:
45 minutes ago, drfeelgood said:

You keep referring to Zay's college as a small school, but East Carolina is the second largest university in North Carolina.

Its weird that East Carolina is in North Carolina.

I guess they call it that since it is located in the eastern part of North Carolina. There is also a college in the western part of the state in the mountains called Western Carolina, but not West Carolina.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Bojang0301 said:

Its more that you've dismissed Joe Williams all together, it's a horrible way to give someone perspective. I fail to even see how Gallman or Mack's situation is better and they are far worse backs in both raw athleticism and running ability.

I don't want to miss out on anyone. Missing out on Ajayi or Howard is a big deal.

I wouldn't say I've dismissed him entirely. He was the 39th skill position prospect chosen in the draft. Obviously some of those TEs, WRs, and QBs who went ahead of him don't look like elite FF assets, but all the same, I'd have to think he's quite a bit better than his raw draft position to put him in the top 24 or close to it. I'm not wowed by anything I see in his clips though, so I'm not going to do that.

You might not want to miss out on anyone, but it's inevitable that you will. By default, you get one pick per round. It's impossible to get every good player with one pick per round. All you can do is try to maximize the value of each selection. If you are playing the RB lotto with 4th-5th round NFL picks in the early phases of your rookie draft, you might hit on the occasional Ajayi or Howard, but you're also going to miss on all of the Jimmy Grahams, Cam Newtons, and Russell Wilsons who are available in the same range because you're taking marginal RB prospects over good prospects at non-premium positions. There is opportunity cost, no matter which strategy you apply.

Guys who chase the RB lottery tickets like Mack, Gallman, and Williams are looking for that big immediate pop. The opportunity cost is that they're passing on guys like Mahomes, Darboh, Taylor, and Everett to make those picks. It's not a free spin of the roulette wheel. To take a guy like this, you are passing up other guys who also have a chance to do something. This year there are some interesting names at QB/WR/TE in the 15-30 portion of rookie drafts, so I haven't often been tempted to grab one of those backs there.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Updated ownership stakes after 6 drafts. Only have one left. I have the 1.06 pick there and may reach for a RB because of need.

On 5/10/2017 at 5:08 PM, EBF said:

 

2017

PATRICK MAHOMES - 5
DEVANTE MAYS - 5
JUJU SMITH - 5

-------------------------------
AMARA DARBOH - 4

-------------------------------
JOE MIXON - 3

------------------------------

GERALD EVERETT - 2
CHAD WILLIAMS - 2

------------------------------
DALVIN COOK - 1
BUCKY HODGES - 1
KAREEM HUNT - 1
SAMAJE PERINE - 1
JOHN ROSS - 1
JONNU SMITH - 1
JAMAAL WILLIAMS - 1

 

 

Drafts have been very uniform this year for the most part though:

Premium Pick: Mixon

Late 1st Round: JuJu

2nd Round: Mahomes

3rd-4th Round: Everett, Darboh

Lottery Ticket: Mays

 

I'm getting these guys in basically every league.

A couple updated thoughts after more reflection:

- Think I might bump Hunt ahead of Foreman and Foreman ahead of Perine. Perine has noticeably less burst and was drafted a round lower because of it.

- Think I might bump up Gerald Everett higher in the 2nd tier. High pick from a small school. Athletic parts that are similar to Eric Ebron. He's not as good, but his RAC ability stands out and he could legitimately be the best receiving weapon on the Rams this season (says more about the Rams than him though).

Edited by EBF
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, bucksoh said:

Good write up.  Just wondering where Ismael Zamora is in your rankings?  I have him as one of the best WR in this class. Tia.

Typical project type of guy. It will be a battle for him to make Oakland's roster. He shows flashes for a big guy, but the movement isn't consistently great and then you've got all the character stuff as well. I've seen him go in the 4th of several of my leagues and at that price there's not huge risk, but he's strictly waiver material in my eyes and in shallower leagues there are other players I like more. If you want a late pick, there are guys who actually got drafted like Devante Mays and Bucky Hodges who have just as much boom potential.


As much as I love upside, physical tools aren't everything and there are plenty of guys with just as much height/weight/speed who never made it in the NFL (Da'Rick Rogers, Marcus Davis, Moritz Boehringer, etc). I would say Zamora is unlikely to succeed, but I also understand that people will throw up the hail mary if there's a 5% chance of a Josh Gordon/Martavis Bryant. Even Gordon with his litany of issues was still a 2nd round pick though and Bryant was a moderately high pick as well. The NFL draft isn't perfectly sorted, but they usually don't pass on great talents altogether.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/11/2017 at 7:00 PM, EBF said:

 

3. I didn't like Coleman coming out and, even though he's a useful player for Atlanta, he has not put up any valuable FF seasons so far. I don't view that comparison as a strong endorsement. Like Coleman, Williams is a sprinter who lacks base strength, run strength, and agility. Personally, I've never been drawn to straight-line backs in general, as I prefer backs who are elusive and shifty.

Coleman has been one of the most efficient rbs in the league since being drafted over the course of a non-negligible sample size. Seems you are maybe a bit stubborn on your pre-draft analysis. 

Also, these rankings, along with the analysis, are basically consensus. And your track record is no better than a casual dynasty league player. What value do you think this type of analysis adds to these boards or your own FF success?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, maf005 said:

Also, these rankings, along with the analysis, are basically consensus. And your track record is no better than a casual dynasty league player. What value do you think this type of analysis adds to these boards or your own FF success?

:thumbdown:

The value of EBF's analysis is to provoke thought and discussion. If you don't see it that way, you can ignore it. Regardless, this is an unnecessary response.

  • Like 23
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, maf005 said:

Coleman has been one of the most efficient rbs in the league since being drafted over the course of a non-negligible sample size. Seems you are maybe a bit stubborn on your pre-draft analysis. 

Also, these rankings, along with the analysis, are basically consensus. And your track record is no better than a casual dynasty league player. What value do you think this type of analysis adds to these boards or your own FF success?

You could potentially get more douchey, but not much. Wish there was a dislike button.

  • Like 16
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, maf005 said:

Coleman has been one of the most efficient rbs in the league since being drafted over the course of a non-negligible sample size. Seems you are maybe a bit stubborn on your pre-draft analysis. 

Also, these rankings, along with the analysis, are basically consensus. And your track record is no better than a casual dynasty league player. What value do you think this type of analysis adds to these boards or your own FF success?

I disagree with EBF a lot, but I do respect his effort and what he brings to the Shark Pool.  What I don't respect are these kinds of responses, because it is unnecessary.  Everyone knows I'm no angel, but at least I'm trying not to push these types of buttons any longer and haven't for a long time.

  • Like 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
  • Create New...