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RB Devante Mays, Green Bay (1 Viewer)

EBF

Footballguy
If you play in deep mandatory 2RB leagues, you know how hard it can be to find useful RBs. People reach for them in the rookie draft every year and it's very hard to acquire one without spending an early draft pick. As such, every year I am on the lookout for talented players who can be had for cheap. In the past I've stocked up on some guys like Bernard Pierce and Bryce Brown who didn't pan out, but I was also an early supporter of some relative success stories like Dion Lewis and Spencer Ware.

This year the player who has caught my attention is Green Bay rookie RB Devante Mays, who the Packers took in the late 7th round out of Utah State. Ty Montgomery (another player I heavily targeted as a rookie pick) is a good athlete, but he might not be ideally suited to touch the ball 15-20 times per game. He may not be more than a part-time player. This means that any of the rookies in Green Bay might have a chance to earn committee reps or maybe even win the starting job outright. Most of the attention is going to Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones, and that makes sense since they were higher picks. However, these situations do not always play out in an obvious fashion. The Broncos took Montee Ball in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft, but their UDFA signing CJ Anderson ended up being the better NFL player. The same thing happened when the Saints drafted Antonio Pittman in the early 4th round in 2007, only to have UDFA Pierre Thomas beat him out for a roster spot. Once these guys get into a camp, it is an open competition and the best player wins.

I don't think Mays is an elite prospect or a lock for NFL success, but I would say the same about Montgomery/Williams/Jones. Those guys will cost you a fairly high rookie pick to acquire, but Mays is virtually free. Here is why I think he has a chance to be a factor here:

- Outstanding height/weight/speed explosiveness combination. At 5'10 1/4" and 230 pounds (32.8 BMI), he ran 4.52 at his pro day and jumped 40.5" in the vertical and 10'9" in the broad jump. Those are first round type of numbers for a player that size, although his three cone time was poor.

- Drafted in the 7th round despite only carrying the ball 37 times as a senior (injuries).

- Excellent production in 2015, rushing for 996 yards on 165 carries (5.9 YPC). Mays ranked 84th in the country in carries, but 71st in yards and 29th (!!) in runs of 20+ yards. His long run % of 6.7% was better than what Fournette (6.0%) and McCaffrey (5.6%) did that season.

- Looks like a decent player in his highlights. I don't like how easily he is tripped up by arm tackles for a 230 pound back, but he has some agility and speed, and is overall a pretty good runner.

None of this makes him a lock for pro success, but he actually shares a lot of similarities with CJ Anderson, who had a similar body type/running style/college production.

Mays has not been drafted in any leagues I've seen apart from where I've taken him (always with one of the last picks of the draft). You can get him uncontested for basically nothing. As long as you have a roster spot available, I recommend stashing him to see if he makes any noise in the preseason. If not, you can cut him and move on.

 
Would be curious to hear your thoughts, EBF, about this guy vs. Elijah Hood, another fast 230lb 7th rounder, drafted this year to be a backup on an elite offense (Oak).

 
Prefer him to Hood. Hood had his moments at UNC and is an interesting prospect in some ways, but he's ultimately too stiff and awkward. He struggles to make any kind of a cut at speed. Watch this rounded cut:

https://youtu.be/ELJy6uce1Hg?t=39s

In that particular instance he still manages to break the tackle, but it takes him almost 10 yards to change directions. That won't fly in the NFL.

Now watch Joe Mixon in a similar situation:

https://youtu.be/l1PkiOroeZE?t=2m55s

That is a much better cut. It's quick and sharp. That's the difference between a UDFA and a viable NFL starter.

Mays is kind of in the middle of these two guys. When you watch his highlights, you will see that he struggles to make cuts at full momentum. He will often opt to lower his shoulder and try to plow into the tackler when a better back might look to evade. However, he has a little bit of that in his arsenal. Examples:

https://youtu.be/nJR1ZGSapcI?t=4m27s

https://youtu.be/nJR1ZGSapcI?t=31s

https://youtu.be/nJR1ZGSapcI?t=2m20s

https://youtu.be/nJR1ZGSapcI?t=2m51s

For a 230 pound back, he is loose and agile. His ability to stick his foot in the ground and move sideways is actually pretty impressive given his size/draft position. Honestly, on "tape" alone, I'd believe that he was a 3rd-4th round NFL draft pick if I didn't know otherwise. He might have gone there with a healthy senior season.

 
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Wiping the sweat off my brow in one league thanks to this thread. 

When I first watched Jones I thought he was the superior athlete to Williams but lacked the size to carry the full load. I then watched Mays and realized he could do everything Jones could do at 230lbs. I don't know why this guy went so late in the NFL draft, but then again, I thought the same about Keith Marshall last year. 

 
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I drafted Jamaal Williams in the mid-late second round of a dynasty league that loves its RBs.  Toward the end of the draft, I hedged and picked up Mays as a little insurance (attempted to grab Jones in rd 3 as well, but was too late).

Anyhow, when I studied Mays, he sort of reminded me of Shonn Green (I'm a Iowa Hawkeyes fan).  Mays wasn't as productive in college and wasn't drafted as high, but I see some similarities in their build and style.  I don't know enough about Mays to say much about him other than I like him as a late round dart (or insurance for Williams and/or Jones owners).

 
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He looks as good as you can running behind a terrible college line. Give him an NFL line and the power he runs with and you will see him shine. 

 
5 late-round NFL draft picks likely to exceed expectations in 2017

Excerpt:

Devante Mays, RB, Green Bay Packers




Picked: Round 7, No. 238 overall
Mays is stepping into a running back situation that couldn't benefit him more as a late-rounder. With Ty Montgomery as the lead back, the Packers clearly had to replenish their depth at the position and they did that by drafting Jamaal Williams (fourth round), Aaron Jones (fifth round) and Mays (seventh round). To me, Mays has the highest upside of the three backs. Mays is built like a truck and possesses a 40.5-inch vertical leap. He's more athletic than Williams and much more powerful than Jones. If Mays had made more than 37 carries this season (injury-riddled season), he might have gone ahead of both of his new teammates.
 
Thanks for the heads up EBF. One thing I noticed from those highlights is that he was having to do a lot on his own; line looked pretty bad. He showed excellent balance and I just love that size to speed ratio. Putting him on my watch list as of right now and will look to add if Pumphrey or Cohen looks to falter.

 
With injuries to both Montgomery (ribs) and Williams (knee) last night, Mays could see some action going forward along with fellow rookie Aaron Jones.  I don't know how long Montgomery could be out, but don't sleep on Mays.  While Jones may be the next man up, Mays will be mixed in and could outproduce Jones.  Jones may be a hot waiver wire add this week, but Mays might be had for pennies on the dollar. 

 
With injuries to both Montgomery (ribs) and Williams (knee) last night, Mays could see some action going forward along with fellow rookie Aaron Jones.  I don't know how long Montgomery could be out, but don't sleep on Mays.  While Jones may be the next man up, Mays will be mixed in and could outproduce Jones.  Jones may be a hot waiver wire add this week, but Mays might be had for pennies on the dollar. 
Mays is someone who looked great to start the season; great preseason. He was active week 1 as a message to Jones for special teams, but has been inactive since. He will be active next week and it'll be interesting to see his usage. He is an exciting back. He could very well take over and out-perform Jones.

He is a sneaky add this week because I wonder if he will outperform Jones week 5 and then be the #1 WW add following that week... Although I do have a man crush on Jones and think he is going to be just fine carrying the load. 

 
I hope he gets a chance to play. I got him in every dynasty league and I think he has always been the most intriguing guy in this backfield in terms of cost vs. upside. Is he a star-in-waiting? Probably not, but he made the roster as a 7th round pick and now he's in position to get some work. We should find out more about what GB thinks of him in the next game. Do they feature Jones? Mays? Split the work between them? I'm curious to find out, but he would be a good add in redrafts if you have the space to take a flyer.

 
I'm partial to Jones (good prospect, did well in preseason, and was OK last night), but I could see Mays being the "lead" back in a 60/40 split...

[side bar: I was never a Williams fan, looked slow at this level]

 
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I hope he gets a chance to play. I got him in every dynasty league and I think he has always been the most intriguing guy in this backfield in terms of cost vs. upside. Is he a star-in-waiting? Probably not, but he made the roster as a 7th round pick and now he's in position to get some work. We should find out more about what GB thinks of him in the next game. Do they feature Jones? Mays? Split the work between them? I'm curious to find out, but he would be a good add in redrafts if you have the space to take a flyer.
He as projected to be more of a PS guy, but he did so well this preseason they added him to the roster... says a lot about what they think about him

 
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This is the kind of guy I stash but not too soon. Because if I stash and can't hold it flags owners who never would have known. I'm not saying time is not now it just reminded me of my thought process in the past on a guy like this. Obviously last nights game changes things some and so does bench and league size. It's one of the greatest aspects of this board. Thank you EBF and all that contribute so often.

 
Gotta believe Mays will be active. Williams certainly gets first crack at the carries. I also have a hunch we'll see some more of Aaron Ripkowski, maybe to the tune of 5 carries. Also add in some wildcat with Randall Cobb, which they went back to last week.

Bottom line for me is Mays will be active, but carries are going to be way spread out. If something happens to Williams, he probably moves to the starting spot.

 
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Gotta believe Mays will be active. Williams certainly gets first crack at the carries. I also have a hunch we'll see some more of Aaron Ripkowski, maybe to the tune of 5 carries. Also add in some wildcat with Randall Cobb, which they went back to you last week.

Bottom line for me is Mays will be active, but carries are going to be way spread out. If something happens to Williams, he probably moves to the starting spot.
Exactly.   And that is of Montgomery doesn’t give it a go.  I’d think they would rest Ty at least a week though. But he came back pretty quickly the first time he hurt the ribs.

 
It may not take much of an opening in a situation like this.  The coaching staff is looking for something that works.  

Montgomery didn't practice today (where the Packers usually practice in shorts and helmets).  I can't imagine he's going to be practicing in full pads with contact if he didn't go today.  Mays may only need a handful of carries to grab the "hot hand" and take off.

Time will tell, but I just am not impressed with Williams.  I may be 100% wrong, but I own Mays in all leagues and Williams in none.

 
WHat are thoughts on him now?
Who thought Chris Carson was going to take the reigns in SEA and dominate. I thought he was a good RB and drafted in very late in redraft (keep 1) as a lotto pick but never thought he would get a shot. Only injuries got him his chance.

 
It may not take much of an opening in a situation like this.  The coaching staff is looking for something that works.  

Montgomery didn't practice today (where the Packers usually practice in shorts and helmets).  I can't imagine he's going to be practicing in full pads with contact if he didn't go today.  Mays may only need a handful of carries to grab the "hot hand" and take off.

Time will tell, but I just am not impressed with Williams.  I may be 100% wrong, but I own Mays in all leagues and Williams in none.
From JSOnline:

Safety Morgan Burnett (hamstring) and running back Ty Montgomery (ribs) both did sprints and agility drills on the sideline during practice. Running back Aaron Jones (knee) was not present. 

I'm guessing they'll limit Montgomery's contact, but I definitely would not rule out him getting carries Sunday. Wouldn't surprise me one bit to see him out there for a handful of snaps, based on how he's played through the injury so far.

Williams hasn't been a great runner. But the fact that he's been active ahead of Mays all season has to be taken into account. 

 

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