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18 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Do we think so? If I Graham and Ertz get what I'd think they should, I should be just north of 150. Gonna be close this week. It's not good when Cohen is your best RB.

I hope it does not move...

Ownership of some guys:

Wentz - 365 - you would think most have a 2nd QB, so may not start counting for a bit
Wilson - 203 - ditto

34 have Wentz/Wilson - not sure how many of those have a 3rd QB who has already scored.  23 have Wentz/Prescott, 4 have Wentz/Ryan, 3 have Wilson/Ryan, 4 have Wilson/Prescott, and none have Ryan/Prescott

105 have Ajayi

862 have Ertz - this is the big mover.

147 have Agholor - Alshon not being in the contest could help keep the number down.

Edited by Sinn Fein
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I have 59 points with Ajayi, Matt Ryan, Taylor Gabriel and Doug Baldwin left. 

This year I was determined to go with 3 QBs, but kept seeing so many comments about the 3rd being a waste. My QBs are M. Ryan and Winston. It was a decent combo that although they underperformed, I really thought they were going to be great this year. 

There is a very small chance I make it, but I need a miracle. 

This is is my favorite fantasy contest and as much as I hate to get the boot this week, I wish everyone else the best of luck. 

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Looks like I move on for another week.If I am lucky enough ( and thats a huge if ) to make the final 250 I don't think my team is built to make much noise in the finals.But you never know I guess it just takes a couple of really good weeks.These cut lines this year seem really low guess its because of all the injuries.

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3 hours ago, Protocols of Stringer Bell said:

How much does the cutline usually move from one game? I'm at 127.3, which is just below the line, but still have R Wilson (-0) and Walsh (-1)

Generally 8 but it moved about 15 last week.  Depends on the ownership %s left.

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50 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Generally 8 but it moved about 15 last week.  Depends on the ownership %s left.

:thumbup: 16 points above the cut thanks to it not moving much last night. Figure Jimmy is probably going to be the prime mover with over 400 owners and many of the commonly owned, higher scoring TEs having down weeks. (Other than Kelce and Walker)

The Ertz crowd might thin a bit. 

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Welp, I am no longer last - moved all the way up to 1577 last night  :thumbup:

I am sitting on 82.7 points, 45.4 below the cutline.    But, there is still a reasonable path - no margin for error though.

 

Wilson - 270 yds passing, 30 yards rushing, 3 TDs = 28.5 points - 17.7 for Wentz = net gain of 10.8

Richardson - 7/70/1 = 20 points - 2.4 (Engram) = net gain of 17.6

Graham - 4/45/2 = 22.5 - 3.8 (Ertz) - net gain of 18.7

Walsh 4xp 1 30yd fg, 1 40 yd fg = 11 points - 0 = net gain of 11 points

Seattle D - 3 sacks, 3 TOs = 9 points - 5 (NEP) = net gain of 4 points

Total net gain = 62.1

New score = 144.8 - should be enough to squeak by....

 

Still very unlikely - Wilson has been +28 5 times, but Graham and Richardson have not been the beneficiaries.  I also think it will be tough for Seattle to put up 34 points on the Falcons - even at home.  I really need a week-8 like shoot-out, when those 5 players put up a combined 119 points against Houston.

 

Its the hope that kills you...

 

 

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4 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Welp, I am no longer last - moved all the way up to 1577 last night  :thumbup:

I am sitting on 82.7 points, 45.4 below the cutline.    But, there is still a reasonable path - no margin for error though.

 

Wilson - 270 yds passing, 30 yards rushing, 3 TDs = 28.5 points - 17.7 for Wentz = net gain of 10.8

Richardson - 7/70/1 = 20 points - 2.4 (Engram) = net gain of 17.6

Graham - 4/45/2 = 22.5 - 3.8 (Ertz) - net gain of 18.7

Walsh 4xp 1 30yd fg, 1 40 yd fg = 11 points - 0 = net gain of 11 points

Seattle D - 3 sacks, 3 TOs = 9 points - 5 (NEP) = net gain of 4 points

Total net gain = 62.1

New score = 144.8 - should be enough to squeak by....

 

Still very unlikely - Wilson has been +28 5 times, but Graham and Richardson have not been the beneficiaries.  I also think it will be tough for Seattle to put up 34 points on the Falcons - even at home.  I really need a week-8 like shoot-out, when those 5 players put up a combined 119 points against Houston.

 

Its the hope that kills you...

 

 

Walsh could easily exceed 11. I don't think 14 is at all unreasonable to hope for. 

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4 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Welp, I am no longer last - moved all the way up to 1577 last night  :thumbup:

I am sitting on 82.7 points, 45.4 below the cutline.    But, there is still a reasonable path - no margin for error though.

 

Wilson - 270 yds passing, 30 yards rushing, 3 TDs = 28.5 points - 17.7 for Wentz = net gain of 10.8

Richardson - 7/70/1 = 20 points - 2.4 (Engram) = net gain of 17.6

Graham - 4/45/2 = 22.5 - 3.8 (Ertz) - net gain of 18.7

Walsh 4xp 1 30yd fg, 1 40 yd fg = 11 points - 0 = net gain of 11 points

Seattle D - 3 sacks, 3 TOs = 9 points - 5 (NEP) = net gain of 4 points

Total net gain = 62.1

New score = 144.8 - should be enough to squeak by....

 

Still very unlikely - Wilson has been +28 5 times, but Graham and Richardson have not been the beneficiaries.  I also think it will be tough for Seattle to put up 34 points on the Falcons - even at home.  I really need a week-8 like shoot-out, when those 5 players put up a combined 119 points against Houston.

 

Its the hope that kills you...

 

 

Got one for Wilson and Graham. Plus a catch for Richardson and an XP for Walsh. 

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Thanks to Pete Carroll's baffling decision to attempt a fake FG before halftime, I just missed the cut.  I'm glad he lost the game because of it.  Good luck to everyone who is still alive the rest of the way! 

Also, thanks again to FBG for continuing to run this great contest year after year. 

Edited by GreenNGold
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Alas - all good things must come to an end.  I did make a run at it - 1 more FG from Walsh would have put me over the line.  I ended up 139.5 - with the cut being 140.05.

I knew it was going to be an uphill battle this week when Dalvin Cook's injury left me with only a single RB (plus Smallwood) this week, combined with Aaron Rodgers injury that made Jordy Nelson useless sealed my fate weeks ago.

Good luck to everyone who is still alive.

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I'm out.

Summary of my week is that D. Martin and D. Parker actually counted for me :lol:

 

On an unrelated note: I plan to do live scoring for the Playoff Content too if there is any interest in that - I can't remember if previous live-scoring apps where active for the playoff contest.  Seems like a lot of the regular posters in the thread got eliminated this week so figured this was a good time to mention it.

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2 hours ago, Steeler said:

I'm out.

Summary of my week is that D. Martin and D. Parker actually counted for me :lol:

 

I just realized that I would be alive if I chose L. Bell instead of DJ before the season started.  I knew I was going to have at least one of them (I tinkered for a while with both but decided I was only going to use one).  I debated and flip-flopped several times through many iterations (I know you all can relate) then finally chose DJ.  I was surprised to make it this far with DJ (and his $39) getting me zero each week...  I held out hope that he would come back and if I could just hold on long enough he might be the catalyst for a strong push in the finals.  Alas, it was not meant to be.  However, had I gone with Bell I would have cleared the cut by about 6 points this week :kicksrock:

:violin:

:ptts:

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5 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Alas - all good things must come to an end.  I did make a run at it - 1 more FG from Walsh would have put me over the line.  I ended up 139.5 - with the cut being 140.05.

I knew it was going to be an uphill battle this week when Dalvin Cook's injury left me with only a single RB (plus Smallwood) this week, combined with Aaron Rodgers injury that made Jordy Nelson useless sealed my fate weeks ago.

Good luck to everyone who is still alive.

So Carroll screwed you w/ that stupid fake. 

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I made it by 2 points thanks to Wilson and Graham, I don't think it will last much longer, but it was kind of fun to start the day down 45 points from the final cut line and make it up.

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5 hours ago, Fine Hour said:

Survived another week. Beat the cut by about 5 points thanks to Walsh and Richardson having usable games for me.

Big week coming up, with half the field getting eliminated. 

Good Luck to everyone left.

Link to your team?

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survival rates         teams remaining

18-1.5%                 54

19-2.96%               49

20-4.72%               63

21-5.86%               71

22-7.12%               75

23-8.57%               78

24-11.36%             93

25-12.08%             79

26-17.73%             97

27-18.83%             84

28-20.83%             75

29-20.06%             67

30-20.75%             122

 

So anything under a 24 man roster less than 10% chance of making it this far.

Edited by rustycolts
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5 hours ago, rustycolts said:

survival rates

18-1.5%

19-2.96%

20-4.72%

21-5.86%

22-7.12%

23-8.57%

24-11.36%

25-12.08%

26-17.73%

27-18.83%

28-20.83%

29-20.06%

30-20.75%

 

So anything under a 24 man roster less than 10% chance of making it this far.

19 person roster here. Must be holding my tongue right! :)

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8 hours ago, rustycolts said:

survival rates

18-1.5%

19-2.96%

20-4.72%

21-5.86%

22-7.12%

23-8.57%

24-11.36%

25-12.08%

26-17.73%

27-18.83%

28-20.83%

29-20.06%

30-20.75%

 

So anything under a 24 man roster less than 10% chance of making it this far.

I'm sitting on a 22 person roster and still alive so feeling good about that. I'm curious if odds now start to shift to smaller rosters now that we are past all the bye weeks.

Edited by Snickers
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http://calcomatic.com/Entry/105082

Been lurking all year and finally posting my team ......Made it through the byes with 1 close call in week 7....we'll see what happens.  Trying for my 3rd trip to the final 250. 

You guys rock ....would be awesome if someone from this board could win. 

Cheers and Happy Thanksgiving to all

 

Edited by Maggot Brain
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I have a 30 man roster but I have Eli Rogers and Thomas Rawls as the only 2 that have not counted for me . So I guess mine is really a 28 man team. I have only made the final 250 once before and that time I had 30 players. The thing is it seems when you have that many you really don't have the fire power to really do much at the end at least the last time my team didn't. This time I feel I have a little better team but still have only broken 200 twice. So while it would be great to make the final cut if I am lucky enough. I probably won't be able to make much noise. Still would be a lot of fun though.

Edited by rustycolts
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