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halebop78 said:
I had the combo but then realized that at 10 each ( I'm guessing) it equals a stud back  and your better off getting one then both of them sharping a backfield hurts both there value so I made a choice ( hunt like everyone else )
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west was $3 so it was $10 for just hunt and $13 for both to 'lock up' the kc backfield.

im not exactly sure what your point is.  you said that if they share a backfield then it hurst both their values.  ok thats fine.  but then choosing just one seems like the wrong way to go, no?  like if you really believed that youd probably take both or neither, right?

 
LittlePhatty said:
I've gone back and forth about that, and I think in the end it didn't really change my strategy too much, if at all. 2 Flex means you can go heavy at any of those positions if you want, and dollar-for-dollar I still think there were better deals at WR. 
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I get that.

But was it always 1.5TEPPR? Because to me the 1.5 for tight ends AND the possibility of starting three of them was pretty big to me. I think that was a new twist in 2016. But I agree there are a lot of good WR values. To each their own, but I really liked these $5 or less WRs: Travis Benjamin, Hogan, Robby Anderson, Stills, Torrey, Wright, P Richardson, Golladay, Jaron Brown. I only liked two TEs under $3 and I didn't like them nearly as much as those guys. I feel like TEs were kind of like RBs. You had to spend more on fewer if you want production from that position. 

 
sooted72 said:
excited to slog through the rest of this thread, it's my favorite every year!  ill probably spend a couple of hours on it at some point today...

anyway my first quick thought is that im seeing tons of kareem hunt but only a few people that paired him with charknado which seemed like a no brainer to me.  curious to get peoples thoughts on that...
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There are 1187 teams with both.  There are 108 teams with both Gillislee and Burkhead.  There are 17 teams with all 4, including moi.

 
Hybrid said:
Here's my reasoning: I don't think Charmander is a very good running back. If something happened to Hunt, I think he'd be in a time-share with whoever else is healthy. Maybe it would give him flex ability, but I don't think his ceiling is high.
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yeah i mean i agree that hes nothing really special as far as nfl rbs go.  having said that hes had some huge games when hes starting bc of injury.  andy reid has kinda bounced back and forth between splitting carries between his top 2 backs and going bellcow over the last couple years.  it seems very plausible to me that west could have some relevant games either bc the kid flames out or gets hurt somewhere along the line.  idk it just feels like super cheap insurance if youve already picked hunt.

 
FF Ninja said:
But was it always 1.5TEPPR? Because to me the 1.5 for tight ends AND the possibility of starting three of them was pretty big to me. I think that was a new twist in 2016. But I agree there are a lot of good WR values. To each their own, but I really liked these $5 or less WRs: Travis Benjamin, Hogan, Robby Anderson, Stills, Torrey, Wright, P Richardson, Golladay, Jaron Brown. I only liked two TEs under $3 and I didn't like them nearly as much as those guys. I feel like TEs were kind of like RBs. You had to spend more on fewer if you want production from that position. 
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I agree with this.

I was very tempted to go Gronk/Reed/Eifert/Julius Thomas. If just those four guys play close to their ceiling they could almost drag a conservative roster deep into the contest all by themselves, imo. All of them have early bye weeks with the exception of Gronk.

 
Stephen Holloway said:
added the percentage ownership for each player, based on 13,504 entries.
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13,504 entries, and 13,500 advance to week 2. Hate to be on of the 4 that don't advance!

 
halebop78 said:
I think high flooors outweigh big callings a player going off may get you though a week but a roster full of safe pics keep you around 
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Roster full of safe picks won't get you to the final 250, and won't have any sort of chance of winning.

 
Russell Wilson $20

Matthew Stafford $13

David Johnson $39

LeVeon Bell $35

Rob Kelley $10

Kareem Hunt $10

Kelvin Benjamin $17

 DeVante Parker $14

Ted Ginn $9

Travis Benjamin $5

Cooper Kupp $5

Chris Hogan $5

Kendall Wright $4

Paul Richardson $3

Cordarrelle Patterson $2

Jordan Reed $23

Jimmy Graham $18

George Kittle $3

Blair Walsh $3

Greg Zuerlein $2

Zane Gonzalez $2

Miami Dolphins $4

Buffalo Bills $4 

 
sooted72 said:
west was $3 so it was $10 for just hunt and $13 for both to 'lock up' the kc backfield.

im not exactly sure what your point is.  you said that if they share a backfield then it hurst both their values.  ok thats fine.  but then choosing just one seems like the wrong way to go, no?  like if you really believed that youd probably take both or neither, right?
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Turns out I actuly kept both but I feel I've made mistake my point was that two together have a 13 dollar value if they end up splitting why not get a 13 dollar guy ? Now the fact that west was so cheap makes it pretty minor but hindsite wish I went other way 

 
FF Ninja said:
Haha, the good news is that those guys are really pretty good when they score a TD. I just like guys like Travis Benjamin and Torrey Smith, where if they score a TD, they usually score a long one. For instance, Kenny Stills was a great $4 buy for me last year. He's a perfect best ball player. I wanted him this year for $5, but couldn't make room... actually I didn't fully take my own advice. My WRs are a mix of possession guys and deep ball guys:

  • Keenan - possession, low variance
  • Moncrief - TD guy, high variance
  • M. Jones - deep ball, high variance
  • Coleman - deep ball, high variance
  • Hogan - possession, boring (5/58/0 type)
  • Wright - possession, boring (another 5/58/0 type)
  • Torrey - deep ball, high variance
  • P. Richardson - deep ball, high variance
  • Jaron Brown - deep ball, high variance
I probably should've stuck with Travis Benjamin instead of Hogan and I probably should've found an extra $1 somewhere and gone for Stills over Wright.
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Wright hogan Richardson all on my roster maybe there hope

 
This entry is still alive. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jameis Winston $17 0.00 Carson Wentz $11 0.00 bye --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Christian McCaffrey $19 0.00 bye Dalvin Cook $17 0.00 bye Danny Woodhead $14 0.00 bye Kareem Hunt $10 0.00 bye Jacquizz Rodgers $9 0.00 Jeremy Hill $9 0.00 bye Charcandrick West $3 0.00 bye --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Davante Adams $20 0.00 bye Kelvin Benjamin $17 0.00 bye Cole Beasley $8 0.00 bye Zay Jones $7 0.00 bye Cooper Kupp $5 0.00 bye Chris Hogan $5 0.00 bye Robby Anderson $5 0.00 bye Kenny Stills $5 0.00 Kendall Wright $4 0.00 bye Paul Richardson $3 0.00 bye Marquise Goodwin $3 0.00 bye Kenny Golladay $3 0.00 bye --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Martellus Bennett $13 0.00 bye Cameron Brate $9 0.00 Julius Thomas $8 0.00 Evan Engram $8 0.00 bye --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dan Bailey $6 0.00 bye Adam Vinatieri $4 0.00 bye --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Miami Dolphins $4 0.00 San Francisco 49ers $2 0.00 bye Detroit Lions $2 0.00 bye --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CUTOFF 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00.  

My first roster of 30 it is sure to get shredded around here but I did take some advice and add to T.E depth  my backs are rock solid and my WR will need some sleepers to come through my stud filled 20 man rosters have 3 straight week 11 exists it was time for a shake up

 
ZWK said:
30 players, studs and duds. And I mean it - my roster might have the highest Gini coefficient in the whole contest. $138 on my top 4 players, $112 on the other 26 ($4.31 per player, on average).

QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB/8 - $28
QB - DeShone Kizer - CLE/9 - $6
RB - David Johnson - ARI/8 - $39
RB - LeVeon Bell - PIT/9 - $35
RB - Kareem Hunt - KC/10 - $10
RB - Wendell Smallwood - PHI/10 - $3
WR - Julio Jones - ATL/5 - $36
WR - Chris Hogan - NE/9 - $5
WR - Robby Anderson - NYJ/11 - $5
WR - Torrey Smith - PHI/10 - $4
WR - Kendall Wright - CHI/9 - $4
WR - Markus Wheaton - CHI/9 - $3
WR - ArDarius Stewart - NYJ/11 - $3
WR - Paul Richardson - SEA/6 - $3
WR - Marquise Goodwin - SF/11 - $3
WR - Kenny Golladay DET/7 - $3
TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/10 - $13
TE - Jack Doyle - IND/11 - $11
TE - Jason Witten - DAL/6 - $10
TE - George Kittle - SF/11 - $3
TE - Maxx Williams - BAL/10 - $3
TE - Marcedes Lewis - JAX/8 - $2
PK - Phil Dawson - ARI/8 - $3
PK - Blair Walsh - SEA/6 - $3
PK - Greg Zuerlein - LAR/8 - $2
PK - Zane Gonzalez - CLE/9 - $2
TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/11 - $2
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/9 - $2
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/7 - $2
TD - New Orleans Saints - NO/5 - $2

The obvious weaknesses are lack of depth at QB and RB. I figured that if Rodgers, Bell, and Johnson produce like they did last year then they're basically every week starters and I won't need depth. And if one of them has a bad year then I'm pretty much screwed regardless, so not much point in buying insurance. WR & TE are generally better buys in terms of turning dollars (and roster slots) into points, so outside of the studs I spent most of my resources there.

Lots of obvious value plays on my roster. Thinking about my chances of winning if I make the 250, I figured that my unusual roster construction would help get me some uniqueness and my 4 studs would have a good shot at having huge games. I also bought some more uniqueness by 1) paying up for Julio even though Evans was a better value (good to have some uniqueness among my studs), 2) taking shots on Ardarius Stewart, Markus Wheaton, Maxx Williams, and Marcedes Lewis.

The only midrange price guys on my roster are Hunt, Ertz, Doyle, and Witten. Hunt and Ertz were ridiculously good values, and Doyle & Witten were very good values too. Also RB and TE don't have nearly as many good cheap value options as WR does and I needed some guys at each position. And mid-range TEs have a better shot than similarly priced WRs & RBs at putting up a huge game (thanks to 1.5 PPR, and the fact that lots of TEs are used in the red zone).

IMO it's worth getting 3-4 PK and 4-5 Def, all cheap, because best ball.
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We share 15 of the same players.

 
ponchsox said:
If anyone took a chance on Malcom Mitchell he was just placed on IR
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Bad news - I lost my first player and the season hasn't kicked off.

Good news - My Dorsett and Hogan investment probably offset this loss.

I believe teams can pull players off IR for later in the year so he'll be well rested.

 
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Overall Strategy:

After the shift of the MIA-TB game in a best ball format, I went heavy on studs in those areas.  I figure no bye and a good potential floor for the bye weeks of other players.  In addition, I looked for LOSING teams for WR/TE.  My thinking is they gotta wing it a lot.  So teams like NYJ, MIN, CIN seemed good to me.  For RBs, I wanted guys that would be solo hits for the main gig and backups with potential to be key starters for down the stretch.

Quarterback:

  1. Jameis Winston $17
  2. Carson Wentz $11
  3. Jared Goff $6
As much as I like having Winston without a bye, I couldn't pass Goff up for $6 to give me an extra outlay when Wentz has his bye late in the season.  

Runningback:

  1. LeSean McCoy $30
  2. Jay Ajayi $26
  3. Rob Kelley $10
  4. Wendell Smallwood $3
  5. Charcandrick West $3
  6. Kerwynn Williams $2
Ajayi every week with McCoy on early bye week seemed a no brainer to me.  Rob Kelley as a possible flex.  Yes I know Perine is there, but Kelley is a bruiser and TD machine, so I see him in that capacity.  Smallwood with the Blount issues.  I took a gamble on West being in a full blown RBBC with Hunt.  Williams for a cheap backup if Johnson goes down.  I feel pretty comfortable that this group will carry me all season.

Wide Receiver:

  1. Julio Jones $36
  2. Mike Evans $29
  3. Laquon Treadwell $5
  4. Chris Hogan $5
  5. Kendall Wright $4
  6. ArDarius Stewart $3
  7. Paul Richardson $3
  8. Tyler Boyd $3
  9. Cordarrelle Patterson $2
Two studs each week.  Hard to go wrong with Evans not having a bye.  To compensate for the other spots, I took some swings that will hopefully fluctuate flex plays week over week.  Treadwell, he was a #1 draft pick two years ago and getting back into the fold.  Hoping for a surprise.  Hogan for Brady.  Enough said.  Wright has been quietly having a good preseason and camp and could be a steal in best ball.  Maybe I'm a loner, but I have been liking AStew.  With the Jets behind in many games and Robby Anderson taking the heat, I think the rookie could be the pick to have.  Richardson promoted to WR2, cheap.  Boyd a flex WR3.  Patterson for a swing for the fences if he can figure it out.

Tight End:

  1. Delanie Walker $15
  2. Cameron Brate $9
  3. Julius Thomas $8
  4. Austin Seferian-Jenkins $6
So Walker for consistency and floor.  Brate/Thomas with no bye... I think both have some upside at that price.  ASJ.  Jets and needing to throw a lot.  I treated the TE group as potential flex play with the WR group week-in week-out.  

Kickers/Defenses:

Whatever, no same bye weeks

 
Settled in on a 29 man roster this year.  They usually have one of the top survival rates.  Mostly a mix of studs and value plays.  Figured on scoring two RBs, cobbling together two WR scores, and getting my flex from Hunt, Ertz, and Bennett

Jameis Winston $17 - last minute switch due to the bye change.  This pick was Big Ben or Manning on several iterations

Andy Dalton $12 - If I win, thank you to the people who posted the rosters early as I stole the Dalton pick.  This selection was Bradford most of the pre-season.

David Johnson $39 0.00 bye - Checked his box on day one and never faltered.  Why have 2-2.5 mid priced guys when DJ will double their score most weeks.

LeVeon Bell $35 0.00 bye - Toyed with Cmac and Martin here.  Bottom line is that Bell outscores them most weeks and his receptions offer a great weekly floor.

Kareem Hunt $10 0.00 bye - Duh.  The winner will have him if he plays 13 weeks.

Wendell Smallwood $3 0.00 bye - I don't buy Blount is the answer.  Smallwood won my several hundreds in college FD so I'm riding that horse again.

Marvin Jones $11 0.00 bye - Waldman has him at WR14 and a great explanation why he fell off last year, I bit.  Considered Parker here but it never made for a good fit with the rest of the team.

Ted Ginn $9 0.00 bye - Day one check mark for me.  Brees and best ball make this a no brainer.  I think he exceeds his Cam numbers which were a bargain at this price.  The Snead suspension is bonus because it gives him time to gain Brees trust.

Tyler Lockett $8 0.00 bye - Personally I think Richardson is the guy in Seattle, but @Boston Fred gave a competing reason why Lockett is the guy.  Covered my bases.

Chris Hogan $5 0.00 bye - Duh

Robby Anderson $5 0.00 bye - Probably should have pivoted off him when Kerley and Kerse came to town.

Torrey Smith $4 0.00 bye - Philly's second WR will offer big value.  Pretty sure I......

Kendall Wright $4 0.00 bye - I think he'll be the number one in Chicago.  White will be hurt in no time.

Paul Richardson $3 0.00 bye - A WR2 on a team with a very good QB, sign me up.

Kenny Golladay $3 0.00 bye - Pre-season darling.

Malcolm Mitchell $3 0.00 bye - Thought he would be the guy if Hogan didn't pan out.  Brady throws too many TDs not to have a piece of his pie.  now on IR.

Phillip Dorsett $3 0.00 bye - Thought he would be the guy if Hogan and Mitchell didn't pan out.

Nelson Agholor $3 0.00 bye - got him (see Smith)

Rob Gronkowski $27 0.00 bye - I toyed with Graham here and adding a another player.  But then I remember he's GRONK and the best damn player in the league.  Disrespect Gronk at your own risk.

Zach Ertz $13 0.00 bye - Best TE value and a sure flex most weeks.

Martellus Bennett $13 0.00 bye - Great best ball play.

George Kittle $3 0.00 bye - Fill in just in case Gronk stubs his two dancing with the ladies.

Caleb Sturgis $3 0.00 bye - cheap kicker

Blair Walsh $3 0.00 bye - another cheap kicker

Greg Zuerlein $2 0.00 bye - even a cheaper kicker

Chicago Bears $3 0.00 bye - cheap defense

Cleveland Browns $2 0.00 bye - cheaper defense

Detroit Lions $2 0.00 bye - throwing crap at the wall

New Orleans Saints $2 0.00 - something will stick

Gonna need DJ, Bell, and Gronk to offset the difference between NE, Seattle, Philly and Det WR2 production and a stud WR production to be a factor in this contest.

 
Just stay healthy boys.... :thumbup:

3 QB

T Brady  QB  NE  $27

C Newton  QB  CAR  $15

J Garoppolo  QB  NE  $4

8 RB

T Gurley  RB  LAR  $27

D Cook  RB  MIN  $17

K Hunt  RB  KC  $10

T Rawls  RB  SEA  $8

M Mack  RB  IND $4

W Smallwood  RB  PHI  $3

C West  RB  KC  $3

T Cohen  RB  CHI  $3

9 WR

M Evans  WR  TB  $29

C Coleman  WR  CLE  $10

K White  WR  CHI  $7

C Hogan  WR  NE  $5

T Smith  WR  PHI  $4

P Richardson  WR  SEA  $3

K Golladay  WR  DET  $3

P Dorsett  WR  NE  $3

J Kearse  WR  NYJ  $3

4 TE

T Eifert  TE  CIN  $18

Z Ertz  TE  PHI  $13

A Hooper  TE  ATL  $11

T Higbee  TE  LAR   $6

3 K

S Hauschka  PK  BUF  $3

C Sturgis  PK  PHI  $3

G Zuerlein  PK  LAR  $2

3 DT

Browns  DT  CLE  $2

Lions  DT  DET  $2

Saints  DT  NO  $2

 
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QuizGuy66 said:
Will post thoughts later (other than realizing I spent too little at RB):

QB - 2 for $30

QB- J Winston $17

QB- M Stafford $13

Definitely caught week one bye fever as I think this may have the first combo that had Winston.   Stafford I have been on and off - he's got a better injury history Dalton and does have monster passing seasons already so I chose him.  Dropped Goff late - thought $36 too much to spend and that I wouldn't get enough play from him.  A little nervous though as this is the first time I have gone with only 2 QBs in this contest IIRC.
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RBs - 6 for $68

RB- J Ajayi $26

RB- D Cook $17

RB-R Kelley $10

RB-K Hunt $10

RB-W Smallwood $3

RB-K Williams $2

:unsure: - I think I went too light on the $ here.  Got excited to get a hold of Ajayi at this price.  Though that said I have 4 definite starters in there which I wanted and I am huge on Cook and Hunt.  Figure Kelley would be a little less owned and he shredded the Bengals ones in preseason.  Smallwood has had a lot of good things said about him and I like his chances at that price.  Kerwynn is a guy I didn't consider until the very very end when I had a combo that sprung $2 free.  Given that he could maybe throw a return TD in the mix and would become worth 10 times as much if Johnson is hurt - why not?
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WRs - 10 for $83

WR-M Evans $29

WR-D Parker $14

WR-M Wallace $10

WR-Z Jones $7

WR-C Hogan $5

WR-R Anderson $5

WR-K Wright $4

WR-P Richardson $3

WR-M Goodwin $3

WR-T Boyd $3

Perhaps the earlier poster is right and that is too many to roster with only 2 dedicated WR slots.  But still this is a position that general offers the best value on pull tab guys.  Evans was in some of my combos - as was AJ Green - the week one bye again was the decider.  Parker was in and out but I think he's going to get a good amount of play.  Wallace was sort of a late stab based on projections.  Baltimore does tend to chuck it a lot.  Zay Jones I have had most of the time based on opportunity.  Same with Hogan and Robby Anderson.  Really the theme with the bottom of the roster guys - Wright, Richardson and Goodwin same thing - all will have enough play that I think they'll rotate into the lineup with 15+ points.  Boyd - well I wanted a Bengal and decided it wouldn't be Dolphin and he's got the slot gig regardless of where Ross factors in - I think he'll be good for a couple good games.
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TEs - 5 for $52

TE-G Olsen $19

TE-Z Ertz $13

TE- J Witten $10

TE-A Gates $6

TE-J Gresham $4

Went heavy with TEs - I do think there was a lot of value in the mid-range.  Olsen is good for a lot of volume there - can get top-line numbers.  Love Ertz's situation.  Witten and Gates started working into the mix later on and at the end I decided to take them both - hopefully one doesn't fall off the cliff.  Didn't trust Cook or McDonald - and Kittle as a rookie with injuries decided not to go that way on this entry.  Gresham has played a long time with Palmer - is the #1 tight end and is gonna pop up now and again.  Not great but not a bad safety value for $4.
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PKs - 3 for $9

PK- C Sturgis $3

PK-P Dawson $3

PK-S Hauschka $3

Generally this is the plan - either $4/$3/$2 or $3/$3/$3 on kickers.  Main criteria is not having the same bye of course and then job security.  Sturgis is safe - honestly a lot of the $3 guys already lost their jobs so I hope that I got guys here who won't kick themselves off their teams.
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DEFs - 3 for $9

TD-Washington $3

TD-Dallas $3

TD-Detroit $2

Fixed a typo in my original post - Detroit only cost $2.  I believe in cheap diversity with defenses.  The quality of defense isn't as much a factor as the ability to stuff when they are out there.  This format doesn't penalize points or yards.  Anyway - hopefully these 3 are able to give me some consistent points between them.

:boxing:

-QG
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so that's it - 29  guys.  I have never had 30, but I think I haven't had 29 more than possibly one other time.

Honestly I don't love this entry.  Too many common dudes.  Too light on the stud RBs probably to be a factor.  But ya never know :)

-QG

 
Having said the above - I have a 2nd bullet in the chamber this year.

ConstruxBoy has retired from fantasy football but still had a subscription from a previous contest win and subcontracted out picking a roster with me and we'll split anything :)

As it turns out I like this roster (that I slammed together in the last hours after submitting the last version of my own) a heckuva lot more than my "official" entry.  It has a lot-more lesser owned guys (I think there's 11 guys less than 1000-owned) and is (kinda surprisingly IMO) one of only 18 entries that has both Brees and Goff.  It also humorously only 6 players in common with my "official" entry.  Anyway here it is.  Will post thoughts on this one later as well  (THANKS AGAIN CB!):

QB Brees Drew NO/5 25

QB Goff Jared LAR/8 6

RB Mixon Joe Cin/6 23

RB McCaffrey Christian Car/11 19

RB Cook Dalvin Min/9 17

RB Powell Bilal NYJ/11 15

RB Hunt Kareem KC/10 10

WR Hill Tyreek KC/10 19

WR Jackson DeSean TB/11 13

WR Ginn Ted NO/5 9

WR Beasley Cole Dal/6 8

WR Shepard Sterling NYG/8 9

WR Stills Kenny Mia/11 5

WR Anderson Robby NYJ/11 5

WR Golladay Kenny Det/7 3

WR Agholor Nelson Phi/10 3

TE Rudolph Kyle Min/9 15

TE Ertz Zach Phi/10 13

TE Fiedorowicz C.J. Hou/7 9

TE Gresham Jermaine Ari/8 4

TE Kittle George SF/11 3

PK Walsh Blair Sea/6 3

PK Sturgis Caleb Phi/10 3

PK Zuerlein Greg LAR/8 2

DEF Miami Mia/11 4

DEF Tennessee Ten/8 3

DEF New Orleans NO/5 2

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
so that's it - 29  guys.  I have never had 30, but I think I haven't had 29 more than possibly one other time.

Honestly I don't love this entry.  Too many common dudes.  Too light on the stud RBs probably to be a factor.  But ya never know :)

-QG
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I don't think you took too many WRs, but I think you took the wrong type. If you're taking 10 WRs I'd rather take higher upside guys like Ginn, Benjamin, Stills, Lockett, etc.  instead of guys like Robby Anderson and Kendall Wright.  I would take those type of guys if I had a smaller WR corps.  

 
FF Ninja said:
Haha, the good news is that those guys are really pretty good when they score a TD. I just like guys like Travis Benjamin and Torrey Smith, where if they score a TD, they usually score a long one. For instance, Kenny Stills was a great $4 buy for me last year. He's a perfect best ball player. I wanted him this year for $5, but couldn't make room... actually I didn't fully take my own advice. My WRs are a mix of possession guys and deep ball guys:

  • Keenan - possession, low variance
  • Moncrief - TD guy, high variance
  • M. Jones - deep ball, high variance
  • Coleman - deep ball, high variance
  • Hogan - possession, boring (5/58/0 type)
  • Wright - possession, boring (another 5/58/0 type)
  • Torrey - deep ball, high variance
  • P. Richardson - deep ball, high variance
  • Jaron Brown - deep ball, high variance
I probably should've stuck with Travis Benjamin instead of Hogan and I probably should've found an extra $1 somewhere and gone for Stills over Wright.
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This doesn't really match their track records in terms of upside. The highest scoring 8 games for each player over the past 3 seasons:

Kenny Stills: 27.2, 21.7, 21.3, 21.0, 19.1, 17.6, 16.2, 14.4 (adds up to 158.5)
Kendall Wright: 27.3, 27.0, 26.2, 23.8, 20.1, 19.9, 18.8, 16.6 (adds up to 179.7)
Torrey Smith: 24.5, 24.0, 22.9, 21.1, 18.6, 18.5, 18.3, 17.1 (adds up to 165.0)

So Wright has actually had the most big games.

Over those 3 seasons Stills had a total of 431.5 fpts in 45 games, Wright 356.5 in 35 games, and Torrey 379.7 in 42 games, so this wasn't mostly based on Wright just being a more productive player overall (though he did have the highest ppg of the 3 by a little bit)

It seems like there isn't that much difference between types of players in their game-to-game upside (at least in PPR). If two players are similarly good on average, then they generally have similar ceilings. Of course you can find differences in hindsight, especially if you just look at a single season's worth of data (check out Marvin Jones' and Adam Thielen's monster upside!), but I suspect that most of that is noise.

 
I'll admit that I left Hunt off of most versions of my roster as I felt he was getting a bit overrated and I liked others better.  Switched him in on the last day because I was too afraid not to have him on my roster.  Glad I did.  

 
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