Tarik Cohen - RB - CHI (3 Viewers)

SayWhat? said:

FWIW, I'm all in on Cohen as well.  That said, 80-96 catches is not his floor.  Good lord.  

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matttyl said:

Serious question, would he draw the #1 corner?

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Chaka said:

Watching the video I definitely still like what I see but IMO this guy is a scat-back who looks to bounce outside.  I am not sure his role changes in the event something happens to Howard.

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NREC34 said:

People going crazy to get Dexter McCluster 2

hope it works out for them...

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matttyl said:

Serious question, would he draw the #1 corner?

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Mozeta said:

In one of my leagues with a $100 budget I bid $23 and he went for $27.  I’m not hurting at RB so I’m fine with it and I don’t feel any more scared by the team that picked him up now than I did yesterday.  I don’t think Cohen is a guy who can win your league for you, I see him as more of a glorified Darren Sproles that caught the Falcons off guard.   I think he will have a solid role in the Chicago passing game due to all their other injuries, so he has value.  However, even if Howard goes down, I  don’t think his value will change much.  If you need a flex, he probably has a pretty decent floor and I think we have already seen his ceiling.  That being said I lost Johnson in a few other leagues and will probably up my bid a bit to try to get him in those leagues. 

There seems to be a handful of people here who are super pumped about this guy which gives me optimism that maybe I’m wrong, but to say this type of player can’t be planned for or stopped seems a little far-fetched to me.  No one is unstoppable in the NFL and if that were the case, every team in the NFL would have a guy just like him and just throw it to the unstoppable guy every time.  Keep in mind the guy is 5’6” and weighs 180 which is smaller than Sproles.   I don’t think you let a guy that small touch the ball 15+ times a game as there is no way he holds up.  I think in PPR he will give you a solid 8-12 points each week but he will be hard pressed to break 20 points again.  I just don’t see the point in blowing your budget on a player like this.  I would first ask myself how much I would be willing to spend on Darren Sproles right now and try to apply that logic when bidding on Cohen.  I would be more worried about blowing my wad in week 1 on Cohen and not having enough money left to get a guy later on who could actually win you your league. 

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Mozeta said:

In one of my leagues with a $100 budget I bid $23 and he went for $27.  I’m not hurting at RB so I’m fine with it and I don’t feel any more scared by the team that picked him up now than I did yesterday.  I don’t think Cohen is a guy who can win your league for you, I see him as more of a glorified Darren Sproles that caught the Falcons off guard.   I think he will have a solid role in the Chicago passing game due to all their other injuries, so he has value.  However, even if Howard goes down, I  don’t think his value will change much.  If you need a flex, he probably has a pretty decent floor and I think we have already seen his ceiling.  That being said I lost Johnson in a few other leagues and will probably up my bid a bit to try to get him in those leagues. 

There seems to be a handful of people here who are super pumped about this guy which gives me optimism that maybe I’m wrong, but to say this type of player can’t be planned for or stopped seems a little far-fetched to me.  No one is unstoppable in the NFL and if that were the case, every team in the NFL would have a guy just like him and just throw it to the unstoppable guy every time.  Keep in mind the guy is 5’6” and weighs 180 which is smaller than Sproles.   I don’t think you let a guy that small touch the ball 15+ times a game as there is no way he holds up.  I think in PPR he will give you a solid 8-12 points each week but he will be hard pressed to break 20 points again.  I just don’t see the point in blowing your budget on a player like this.  I would first ask myself how much I would be willing to spend on Darren Sproles right now and try to apply that logic when bidding on Cohen.  I would be more worried about blowing my wad in week 1 on Cohen and not having enough money left to get a guy later on who could actually win you your league. 

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steelwind said:

SUMMARY

I can safely project Cohen to have 616 rush yards, 78 catch 546 reception yards and 7 total TDs.  A 1162 total yards 7 TD RB in my standard league is a RB2.  High end RB2 in PPR leagues.  And you know, if he truly grows there's tons of upside for more.

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steelwind said:

***Analysis Incoming!***

In 2016 the team stats breakdown like this:

QB attempts:  558 (35/game)

Jordan Howard:  252 rush 50 targets 29 receptions

Jeremy Langford + others:  100 rush 35 targets 25 receptions

ALL WRs:  7 rush 363 targets 221 receptions

ALL TEs:  101 targets 71 receptions

This year, yes they will throw to WRs.  Though we can expect a major regression on targets going to WRs.  But I expect the QB attempts to be the same due to game flow and the expectation that they will fall behind in nearly every game.

2017 Safe Rushing Projections

Jordan Howard:  Had 13 carries out of possible 19 carries for 68% share.  If they run 350 times like 2016 then project him to have 238 rushes this year.  He averaged 5.2 yard/carry in 2016 and 4.0 in week 1.  Let's give him an average of 5.0 for 1190 projected yards.

Tarik Cohen:  Let's give him Michael Burton's lone carry for 6 out of possible 19 carries.  Because I don't think Michael friggin Burton is going to get any carries again.  So 6 out of 19 for 32% share.  If they run 350 times like 2016 then project 112 rushes.  He won't average 13.2 yard/carry as that 46 yard run inflated the total.  His college average was 6.5.  Let's knock that down a little due to NFL competition and give it 5.5.  That comes out to 616 projected rushing yards.

2017 Safe Receiving Projections

Jordan Howard:  Even with Cohen's emergence I'm going to keep Howard's reception target at 50 due to how this offense is constructed.  He had a terrible catch rate of 58%.  Sproles is the shining example at 73%.  Howard averaged 10.3 yards/catch last year which is quite high for a RB.  Sproles averaged 8.2 in 2016.  I'll knock that down to 5.0.  I just don't see him getting many chances to break huge reception runs.  I'll give Howard the same catches as 2016 at 29 total.  That puts him at 145 reception yards.

Tarik Cohen:  I do not expect Cohen to command 12 targets a game.  We really need to knock this down.  Sproles averaged 4.7 targets/game in 2016 but he was hurt for a few games.  With the Bears lacking playmakers at WR I'm comfortable giving Cohen an average of 7 targets per game and I still think that's too generous.  Cohen averaged 9.6 yards/catch in college.  No way that translates to NFL.  Let's safely give him 7.0 yards/catch at an efficient rate of 70% with those great hands.  Again, Sproles is the shining example at 73% so I'm still putting him a little under Sproles.  That comes out to 78 catches and 546 reception yards.

Cohen's 2017 TD Projections

This is extremely difficult to predict.  In 2016 Tyreek Hill had 12 total TDs.  3 from the ground, 6 from catches and 3 from punt/kickoff returns.  Tyreek Hill is a good comparison because Cohen is being used in a similar way to gauge his TD potential.  I certainly can't go overboard and say he will have 12!  From the surface, trimming down and using Tyreek as an example let's say 2 from the ground, 4 from catches and 1 from punt/kickoff returns.  7 total TDs is a safe projection.

SUMMARY

I can safely project Cohen to have 616 rush yards, 78 catch 546 reception yards and 7 total TDs.  A 1162 total yards 7 TD RB in my standard league is a RB2.  High end RB2 in PPR leagues.  And you know, if he truly grows there's tons of upside for more.

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matttyl said:

I see how you got there, and I think you'd still have Howard as a high end RB2 as well.  When's the last time two RBs from the same team were both high end RB2s?

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matttyl said:

I see how you got there, and I think you'd still have Howard as a high end RB2 as well.  When's the last time two RBs from the same team were both high end RB2s?

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Dr. Dan said:

Yes. I think it's a lazy argument, no offense.

As I said above... 6 catches for 45 yards and 4 returns for 60yds is worth 14.5 points in my league. That's RB2 territory in my league, and IMO that seems to be his floor. (5-6 catches a game)  


 

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Kwai Chang Caine said:

So Bloom has him at 50+ of your budget and predicts that he may be--looking back--a top 5 WW pickup in PPR this year. I lost Woodhead and my RBs are by far my weakest position. It's an FFPC league and I'm considering making a substantial bid. Maybe on the order of about 80%.

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steelwind said:

I couldn't tell you when.  But historically it's rare.  However, scouts and analysts have compared him to Sproles and Tyreek Hill.  And how often have we seen this type of player in our generation?  Scouts want bigger, faster players.  They gain all the attention.  Remember, Sproles was a utility player in San Diego before he shined in NO.  Tyreek Hill was drafted in the 5th round.  We are lucky that KC gave him a chance and now you see his potential.  The formula has always been talent meets opportunity.

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Concept Coop said:

Freeman was RB1 and Coleman mid RB2 last season.  

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matttyl said:

And that was a team that went to the Super Bowl.  We're talking about the Chicago Bears here....

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Dr. Dan said:

Thanks for this. This is an amazing break down of statistics and how similar players were used last year and around the league.

I agree with your TD assessment. I think 7 might be generous, but I think you broke it down well.

I think you hit it spot on and it's a very reasonable prediction of his statistics based on his usage and abilities. I think he has a lot of room to grow from here, as you said, but if this is what he ended up with, I'd be thrilled.


Add in punt return yards and, in my league, he might even get to RB1 status (1 point per 20 return yards) 

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Dr. Dan said:

Cohen touched the ball 20 times week 1... 

Leonard Fournette: 29 touches
David Cook: 25 touches
Kareem Hunt: 22 touches
Christian McCaffrey: 18 touches

Ty Montgomery got 23 touches and people were raving about how he was used so heavily (FTR I am pleased to be wrong about that one)

Players have more opportunities to score fantasy points the more often they touch the ball. That's why I have high expectations for him... he touches the ball a lot. 
 

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Kwai Chang Caine said:

So Bloom has him at 50+ of your budget and predicts that he may be--looking back--a top 5 WW pickup in PPR this year. I lost Woodhead and my RBs are by far my weakest position. It's an FFPC league and I'm considering making a substantial bid. Maybe on the order of about 80%.

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Dismattle said:

Id need too ask, what it takes too go all in.. Top 5 PPR, Right.

I'm All in, or I'm PO'd, I blew sheet on something less.  (Don't gift me an RB1+, I'm already figuring too kick *ss)

IF ya want mine? Coach, really gonna risk his scat back, return man, too hungry hitters? Howard is a no *hit NFL RB1 (imho)

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Gopher State said:

What I like about this situation is how many games are the Bears going to be down by 14+ points with about 7 minutes left in the game, I suspect more then a few.  This kid will rack up big time points during garbage time of the games, as other teams let them throw short passes to him.

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steelwind said:

***Analysis Incoming!***

In 2016 the team stats breakdown like this:

QB attempts:  558 (35/game)

Jordan Howard:  252 rush 50 targets 29 receptions

Jeremy Langford + others:  100 rush 35 targets 25 receptions

ALL WRs:  7 rush 363 targets 221 receptions

ALL TEs:  101 targets 71 receptions

This year, yes they will throw to WRs.  Though we can expect a major regression on targets going to WRs.  But I expect the QB attempts to be the same due to game flow and the expectation that they will fall behind in nearly every game.

2017 Safe Rushing Projections

Jordan Howard:  Had 13 carries out of possible 19 carries for 68% share.  If they run 350 times like 2016 then project him to have 238 rushes this year.  He averaged 5.2 yard/carry in 2016 and 4.0 in week 1.  Let's give him an average of 5.0 for 1190 projected yards.

Tarik Cohen:  Let's give him Michael Burton's lone carry for 6 out of possible 19 carries.  Because I don't think Michael friggin Burton is going to get any carries again.  So 6 out of 19 for 32% share.  If they run 350 times like 2016 then project 112 rushes.  He won't average 13.2 yard/carry as that 46 yard run inflated the total.  His college average was 6.5.  Let's knock that down a little due to NFL competition and give it 5.5.  That comes out to 616 projected rushing yards.

2017 Safe Receiving Projections

Jordan Howard:  Even with Cohen's emergence I'm going to keep Howard's reception target at 50 due to how this offense is constructed.  He had a terrible catch rate of 58%.  Sproles is the shining example at 73%.  Howard averaged 10.3 yards/catch last year which is quite high for a RB.  Sproles averaged 8.2 in 2016.  I'll knock that down to 5.0.  I just don't see him getting many chances to break huge reception runs.  I'll give Howard the same catches as 2016 at 29 total.  That puts him at 145 reception yards.

Tarik Cohen:  I do not expect Cohen to command 12 targets a game.  We really need to knock this down.  Sproles averaged 4.7 targets/game in 2016 but he was hurt for a few games.  With the Bears lacking playmakers at WR I'm comfortable giving Cohen an average of 7 targets per game and I still think that's too generous.  Cohen averaged 9.6 yards/catch in college.  No way that translates to NFL.  Let's safely give him 7.0 yards/catch at an efficient rate of 70% with those great hands.  Again, Sproles is the shining example at 73% so I'm still putting him a little under Sproles.  That comes out to 78 catches and 546 reception yards.

Cohen's 2017 TD Projections

This is extremely difficult to predict.  In 2016 Tyreek Hill had 12 total TDs.  3 from the ground, 6 from catches and 3 from punt/kickoff returns.  Tyreek Hill is a good comparison because Cohen is being used in a similar way to gauge his TD potential.  I certainly can't go overboard and say he will have 12!  From the surface, trimming down and using Tyreek as an example let's say 2 from the ground, 4 from catches and 1 from punt/kickoff returns.  7 total TDs is a safe projection.

SUMMARY

I can safely project Cohen to have 616 rush yards, 78 catch 546 reception yards and 7 total TDs.  A 1162 total yards 7 TD RB in my standard league is a RB2.  High end RB2 in PPR leagues.  And you know, if he truly grows there's tons of upside for more.

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Biabreakable said:

I appreciate the work on projections here.

I think your rushing attempts for Cohen are too high. Targets are likely too high as well. 7 targets per game would be 112 targets over 16 games. Those are David Johnson or LTs best season in terms of targets. Seems like too much, even with considering the Bears lack of other receiving options.

For an end of season guess at his numbers I would expect something more like 70 rushing attempts and 80 targets. Maybe that is too low but with only one game to work from, it is hard for me to be more optimistic than that. I still expect Howard to be their primary RB. Theo RIddick did have 99 targets in 2015 and was averaging 6.7 targets per game last year before being injured. So if Cohen is going to be used in similar way, 100 targets certainly possible, I would just lean to something more conservative then this, until proven wrong. I would rather under project a unknown player than to over project for them.

80 targets is 5 targets per game, which is still a lot for a RB. Chris Thompson of Washington is another example of a COP receiving RB and the most targets he has had in a season is 62 (3.8 per game) Even Darren Sproles who is one of the best receiving RB in NFL history only had 100 targets twice. Otherwise he has had targets in the 70-90 range. I am really not comfortable with projecting that high of targets for Cohen based on the information I have right now.

The last time I looked at RB receiving averages, a RB averages 73% catch rate and about 7 yards per reception. Cohen may be better than average, but with no NFL sample size to base this on for him, I would just plug in average numbers there for now, until we have 3 or 4 weeks of data to work with and try to extrapolate from. FWIW I used average numbers for Kareem Hunt moving forward for much the same reason.

So 70 rushing attempts at 4.2 ypc is 294 rushing yards. 80 targets at 73% is 58 receptions at 7 ypc is 406 yards. That is 700 combined yards or 44 yards per game.

I dunno. Even being optimistic and giving Cohen 100 targets 73 receptions 511 yards receiving, he is still falling short of 1000 combined yards.

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steelwind said:

Thanks for this.  I can see your yard projections as his floor.  I spiked up his average target to 7 per game because he was being lined up as a WR.  And I project him to have plenty of check downs.  Glennon is like Alex Smith.

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Milkman said:

Luckily I picked Cohen up in both dynasty leagues as a dart throw before the season started but if I had to bid on him I'd break the bank. The situation is to juicy this year. He should break 100 targets because they will get both backs on the field and line Cohen up in the slot a lot. He's by far the bear's best weapon. Then you add in I'm very high on Trubisky and I see a great situation moving forward for Cohen.....

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NREC34 said:

Nah break the bank for Dwayne Washington 

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Dr. Dan said:

Cohen touched the ball 20 times week 1... 

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Chaka said:

@NREC34 I understand, and respect your dissenting opinion on Cohen.  But would you mind occasionally adding some analysis or insight into why you think he is not a good buy?

The snark only angle just clutters the thread.  TIA.

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NREC34 said:

Sorry. 

I think he has a chance to be a good pick up. He looked good in preseason. I did not get to watch his game Sunday however. I would just be cautious and not overpay unless you're really desperate at the RB position. 

That's my opinion. I don't hate him by any means. 

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Grahamburn said:

That's fine.  I think it's just as lazy to project him for 150 all purpose yards per game (you didn't include rushing; I guessed) and 98 receptions based on his first NFL game.  Good luck.

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Chaka said:

He did?

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BobbyLayne said:

Just a point of information....

He had 13 touches on offense.

He also returned 3 punts; we give 0.025 pts per yard for KR/PR, but that's irrelevant in most leagues.

He also had 4 targets that went incomplete, but AFAIK leagues don't give points for incompletions. 

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Biabreakable said:

I appreciate the work on projections here.

I think your rushing attempts for Cohen are too high. Targets are likely too high as well. 7 targets per game would be 112 targets over 16 games. Those are David Johnson or LTs best season in terms of targets. Seems like too much, even with considering the Bears lack of other receiving options.

For an end of season guess at his numbers I would expect something more like 70 rushing attempts and 80 targets. Maybe that is too low but with only one game to work from, it is hard for me to be more optimistic than that. I still expect Howard to be their primary RB. Theo RIddick did have 99 targets in 2015 and was averaging 6.7 targets per game last year before being injured. So if Cohen is going to be used in similar way, 100 targets certainly possible, I would just lean to something more conservative then this, until proven wrong. I would rather under project a unknown player than to over project for them.

80 targets is 5 targets per game, which is still a lot for a RB. Chris Thompson of Washington is another example of a COP receiving RB and the most targets he has had in a season is 62 (3.8 per game) Even Darren Sproles who is one of the best receiving RB in NFL history only had 100 targets twice. Otherwise he has had targets in the 70-90 range. I am really not comfortable with projecting that high of targets for Cohen based on the information I have right now.

The last time I looked at RB receiving averages, a RB averages 73% catch rate and about 7 yards per reception. Cohen may be better than average, but with no NFL sample size to base this on for him, I would just plug in average numbers there for now, until we have 3 or 4 weeks of data to work with and try to extrapolate from. FWIW I used average numbers for Kareem Hunt moving forward for much the same reason.

So 70 rushing attempts at 4.2 ypc is 294 rushing yards. 80 targets at 73% is 58 receptions at 7 ypc is 406 yards. That is 700 combined yards or 44 yards per game.

I dunno. Even being optimistic and giving Cohen 100 targets 73 receptions 511 yards receiving, he is still falling short of 1000 combined yards.

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steelwind said:

Thanks for this.  I can see your yard projections as his floor.  I spiked up his average target to 7 per game because he was being lined up as a WR.  And I project him to have plenty of check downs.  Glennon is like Alex Smith.

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Dr. Dan said:

I believe the information I was going off of (20 touches) was from the Chicago Tribune. So Yes, it appears that I was off by 4, or the term "touches" was misused by whomever wrote the article. 

Thanks for the correction

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Dr. Dan said:

Do you guys not get points for returns? This seals the deal for me... 

Let's say he gets 300 punt return yards, granted that's about 1 fantasy point per game increase, but that's a handful of more times for him to make a big play. 

I always seemed to do well whenever I had WRs that returned punts... it was always a difference maker that by itself won me a few games. Having a RB in that role including a passing role, to me, has potential to be a difference maker. 

He could flame out, I agree... but I'd hate to not at least try. At least I can say I swung and missed. I'd hate to not even tried, been wrong, and lost my season because I didn't muster the cojones to give it a go. 

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Ratbone said:

Cohen has gone for 100% of free agent bidding bucks in all 4 leagues that I am in that waivers have ran so far. Many of those with multiple max bids. Just passing that along. 

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Chaka said:

Gotcha.  I didn't consider special teams work.

How much special teams work did Fournette, Hunt, Cook, McCaffrey and Montgomery have?  You don't need to check, point being that while the ST work is nice and definitely a point in Cohen's favor, I don't think it's directly comparable to rushing/receiving when considering fantasy impact.  

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GroveDiesel said:

The one thing that makes me think that he could be more than just that one game flash guy is that Daniel Jeremiah is high on him and even tweeted before Week 1 games that he couldn't wait to watch Cohen. DJ is a former NFL scout turned analyst who is right more often than not.

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