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Tarik Cohen - RB - CHI (1 Viewer)

In the last 20 years (1997-2016), there have been 15 rookie RBs who had more than 45 receptions.

Of those 15, at least 8 of them seem like not a good comp because they of their 3-down workload (Forte, Edge, LT2, Richardson, Slaton, D. Martin, Dom Williams, L. Bell.)

The other 7 were CoP backs or in a time share:

  • Reggie Bush   2006 155-565-6 121-88-742-2
  • Duke Johnson 2015 104-379-0 74-61-534-2
  • Jahvid Best 2010 171-555-4 80-58-487-2
  • Gio Bernard 2013 170-695-5 71-56-514-3
  • Roy Helu 2011 151-640-2 59-49-379-1
  • M. Jones-Drew 2006 166-941-13 62-46-436-2
  • J. Allen 2015 137-514-1 62-45-353-2
Allen and Helu are no talent outlier who seem irrelevant to the discussion. I don't see Cohen as being capable of producing the same rushing workload we saw from MJD or Gio. I think Best and Bush are good comps, and we'd like to think he's got tons of more talent than Duke. Anyway, my only point in looking at this is to see how frequently we see rookie RBs grab X number of receptions. Including the 3-down workhorses:

  • 90 or more - 0
  • 80-89 - 1
  • 70-79 - 0
  • 60-69 - 3
  • 50-59 - 8
Same cohort group, targets:

  • 120 or more - 1
  • 110-119 - 0
  • 100-109 - 0
  • 90-99 - 0
  • 80-89 - 2
  • 70-79 - 7
He's an interesting case study, and one game simply isn't enough of a data point to project. But Howard is going to get 15+ carries a game IMO.  Chicago's RB rushing attempts the last 3 years (includes the last 2 years of the Forte era) were 352, 424, and 302. They had 19 last week, which projects to 304. They're not a good team and figure to be behind often. If we project them at 345 RB ATT, and pencil in Howard at 240 (less than last year when he barely played the first 3 weeks), that leaves 105 for Tarik. I'll give him a Charles/Brown/Sanders average of 5.25. I think Howard gets most of the TDs in this offense.

105-551-3

RB targets for CHI last 3 years: 96, 105, and 137. Here I like to look at the Forte era. Different back/regime, but I think it gives you some idea of how many targets we might see. I'd go one step further and point to DET/Riddick as a good comp. I could see the Bears having 160 RB targets this year. They had 17 last week (I believe that will be an outlier at YE), so with 143 remaining, I got Howard getting 48 (5 fm Week 1), Cohen 112 (12 Week 1.) That's a near historic pace; only Reggie Bush has had more than 82 targets in the last 20 years, and he wasn't a day 3 draft pick.

112-81-770-4*

*ties Edge and Forte for most of any rookie RB in the last 20 seasons

186 touches is almost 12 per game. 1321 total yards, 7 TDs, 255.10 points. That's RB7 in full PPR in 2014 & 2016, RB3 in 2015.

Which seems really, really absurd. There's a very low chance he stays healthy, continues to get the opportunity, and seizes that chance with historic results. You're asking for the perfect storm if you think ALL of that is going to happen this year. 

Let's drop the rookie comparisons and look at Sproles. Discounting the first 3 years (mostly return man), the little man has had between 705 and 911 yards 7 of the last 8 years. He had 1313 YFS (86 receptions) and 9 TDs in 2011. In the other 7 years, he has averaged 793 yards YFS (58 catches) and 5 TDs rushing/receiving.

I think that's probably as good a floor as any. I mean Sproles is a really special, not too many his size have succeeded at his level. Mack Herron back in the mid-70s. Probably a few others I am forgetting about. It's really, really rare.

60 catches, 800 YFS and 5 TDs would be a really good season for a guy that most people thought was headed for UDFA back in April.

So I guess his range is 60-80 catches, 800-1300 YFS, and 5-7 TDs. If he goes over 1K and scores 6 TDs, that's gonna make him a solid RB2 in PPR.

 
I like his article. I think he highlights an important part of assessment that is even on display here: assessing a player in a capacity that he will never be used in. It's the equivalent of saying Cohen can't throw the ball 30 yards into a garbage can while bootlegging to his left... okay... so what? 

 
In the last 20 years (1997-2016), there have been 15 rookie RBs who had more than 45 receptions.

Of those 15, at least 8 of them seem like not a good comp because they of their 3-down workload (Forte, Edge, LT2, Richardson, Slaton, D. Martin, Dom Williams, L. Bell.)

The other 7 were CoP backs or in a time share:

  • Reggie Bush   2006 155-565-6 121-88-742-2
  • Duke Johnson 2015 104-379-0 74-61-534-2
  • Jahvid Best 2010 171-555-4 80-58-487-2
  • Gio Bernard 2013 170-695-5 71-56-514-3
  • Roy Helu 2011 151-640-2 59-49-379-1
  • M. Jones-Drew 2006 166-941-13 62-46-436-2
  • J. Allen 2015 137-514-1 62-45-353-2
Allen and Helu are no talent outlier who seem irrelevant to the discussion. I don't see Cohen as being capable of producing the same rushing workload we saw from MJD or Gio. I think Best and Bush are good comps, and we'd like to think he's got tons of more talent than Duke. Anyway, my only point in looking at this is to see how frequently we see rookie RBs grab X number of receptions. Including the 3-down workhorses:

  • 90 or more - 0
  • 80-89 - 1
  • 70-79 - 0
  • 60-69 - 3
  • 50-59 - 8
Same cohort group, targets:

  • 120 or more - 1
  • 110-119 - 0
  • 100-109 - 0
  • 90-99 - 0
  • 80-89 - 2
  • 70-79 - 7
He's an interesting case study, and one game simply isn't enough of a data point to project. But Howard is going to get 15+ carries a game IMO.  Chicago's RB rushing attempts the last 3 years (includes the last 2 years of the Forte era) were 352, 424, and 302. They had 19 last week, which projects to 304. They're not a good team and figure to be behind often. If we project them at 345 RB ATT, and pencil in Howard at 240 (less than last year when he barely played the first 3 weeks), that leaves 105 for Tarik. I'll give him a Charles/Brown/Sanders average of 5.25. I think Howard gets most of the TDs in this offense.

105-551-3

RB targets for CHI last 3 years: 96, 105, and 137. Here I like to look at the Forte era. Different back/regime, but I think it gives you some idea of how many targets we might see. I'd go one step further and point to DET/Riddick as a good comp. I could see the Bears having 160 RB targets this year. They had 17 last week (I believe that will be an outlier at YE), so with 143 remaining, I got Howard getting 48 (5 fm Week 1), Cohen 112 (12 Week 1.) That's a near historic pace; only Reggie Bush has had more than 82 targets in the last 20 years, and he wasn't a day 3 draft pick.

112-81-770-4*

*ties Edge and Forte for most of any rookie RB in the last 20 seasons

186 touches is almost 12 per game. 1321 total yards, 7 TDs, 255.10 points. That's RB7 in full PPR in 2014 & 2016, RB3 in 2015.

Which seems really, really absurd. There's a very low chance he stays healthy, continues to get the opportunity, and seizes that chance with historic results. You're asking for the perfect storm if you think ALL of that is going to happen this year. 

Let's drop the rookie comparisons and look at Sproles. Discounting the first 3 years (mostly return man), the little man has had between 705 and 911 yards 7 of the last 8 years. He had 1313 YFS (86 receptions) and 9 TDs in 2011. In the other 7 years, he has averaged 793 yards YFS (58 catches) and 5 TDs rushing/receiving.

I think that's probably as good a floor as any. I mean Sproles is a really special, not too many his size have succeeded at his level. Mack Herron back in the mid-70s. Probably a few others I am forgetting about. It's really, really rare.

60 catches, 800 YFS and 5 TDs would be a really good season for a guy that most people thought was headed for UDFA back in April.

So I guess his range is 60-80 catches, 800-1300 YFS, and 5-7 TDs. If he goes over 1K and scores 6 TDs, that's gonna make him a solid RB2 in PPR.
I would agree with this as well... well thought out. 

 
I'd be happy as anything if he was a solid RB2.
I think most people would be. 

But I think the hype of him going so high with FAAB raises the question of if people think he's a RB1... which I wouldn't think unless he hits his ceiling, which is probably unlikely. IMO there's no one really worth a RB1 type FAAB bid so "solid RB2" is it... 

 
Good stuff BL

Nice to know I am not that far off being skeptical of 100 targets for a rookie RB.

You and Steelwind have convinced me that Cohen may get 100 rushing attempts, which is more than I was thinking. I can see that. 

Cohen seems to be splitting drives with Howard, as Steelwind points out, so he will get rushing attempts along the way doing that.

I would disagree with the 5.2 yards per carry in your projection, but it likely will be better than 4.2

 
Good stuff BL

Nice to know I am not that far off being skeptical of 100 targets for a rookie RB.

You and Steelwind have convinced me that Cohen may get 100 rushing attempts, which is more than I was thinking. I can see that. 

Cohen seems to be splitting drives with Howard, as Steelwind points out, so he will get rushing attempts along the way doing that.

I would disagree with the 5.2 yards per carry in your projection, but it likely will be better than 4.2
I don't thInk 5.25 is likely - I was walking through a dream season scenario- but let's not forget the Bears have made serious investment in their O-line. Top 5 per PFF. They have awful talent at the skill positions, but great vets at both Gs and their rookie center was close to being a Pro Bowler. The Ts are the weakness, but they graded out well against the Falcons.

ETA: Oops, forgot G Kyle Long is still out. But his replacement did well last week. It's def a good O-line regardless.

 
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Good stuff BL

Nice to know I am not that far off being skeptical of 100 targets for a rookie RB.

You and Steelwind have convinced me that Cohen may get 100 rushing attempts, which is more than I was thinking. I can see that. 

Cohen seems to be splitting drives with Howard, as Steelwind points out, so he will get rushing attempts along the way doing that.

I would disagree with the 5.2 yards per carry in your projection, but it likely will be better than 4.2
I looked at Howard's 5.2 y/c from last  year at 252 rush attempts.  And then seeing week 1 highlights.  They have a good oline.  And that's without Kyle Long.  Both Howard and Cohen are going to do well behind that oline that's why I gave Cohen a projection of 5.5.  I thought I was extremely conservative here because he's the one who will create some home run chunk yardage plays.

Kyle Long sent a twitter today "Eyeing week 2" so they will improve even more.

 
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Jordan Howard - RB -  Bears

Jordan Howard (shoulder) was limited at Wednesday's practice.

Source: Greg Auman on Twitter 

Sep 13 - 6:08 PM

 
So Bloom has him at 50+ of your budget and predicts that he may be--looking back--a top 5 WW pickup in PPR this year. I lost Woodhead and my RBs are by far my weakest position. It's an FFPC league and I'm considering making a substantial bid. Maybe on the order of about 80%.
i got him, and am real glad i did, but 80% is  :scared:

 
In the last 20 years (1997-2016), there have been 15 rookie RBs who had more than 45 receptions.

Of those 15, at least 8 of them seem like not a good comp because they of their 3-down workload (Forte, Edge, LT2, Richardson, Slaton, D. Martin, Dom Williams, L. Bell.)

The other 7 were CoP backs or in a time share:

  • Reggie Bush   2006 155-565-6 121-88-742-2
  • Duke Johnson 2015 104-379-0 74-61-534-2
  • Jahvid Best 2010 171-555-4 80-58-487-2
  • Gio Bernard 2013 170-695-5 71-56-514-3
  • Roy Helu 2011 151-640-2 59-49-379-1
  • M. Jones-Drew 2006 166-941-13 62-46-436-2
  • J. Allen 2015 137-514-1 62-45-353-2
Allen and Helu are no talent outlier who seem irrelevant to the discussion. I don't see Cohen as being capable of producing the same rushing workload we saw from MJD or Gio. I think Best and Bush are good comps, and we'd like to think he's got tons of more talent than Duke. Anyway, my only point in looking at this is to see how frequently we see rookie RBs grab X number of receptions. Including the 3-down workhorses:

  • 90 or more - 0
  • 80-89 - 1
  • 70-79 - 0
  • 60-69 - 3
  • 50-59 - 8
Same cohort group, targets:

  • 120 or more - 1
  • 110-119 - 0
  • 100-109 - 0
  • 90-99 - 0
  • 80-89 - 2
  • 70-79 - 7
He's an interesting case study, and one game simply isn't enough of a data point to project. But Howard is going to get 15+ carries a game IMO.  Chicago's RB rushing attempts the last 3 years (includes the last 2 years of the Forte era) were 352, 424, and 302. They had 19 last week, which projects to 304. They're not a good team and figure to be behind often. If we project them at 345 RB ATT, and pencil in Howard at 240 (less than last year when he barely played the first 3 weeks), that leaves 105 for Tarik. I'll give him a Charles/Brown/Sanders average of 5.25. I think Howard gets most of the TDs in this offense.

105-551-3

RB targets for CHI last 3 years: 96, 105, and 137. Here I like to look at the Forte era. Different back/regime, but I think it gives you some idea of how many targets we might see. I'd go one step further and point to DET/Riddick as a good comp. I could see the Bears having 160 RB targets this year. They had 17 last week (I believe that will be an outlier at YE), so with 143 remaining, I got Howard getting 48 (5 fm Week 1), Cohen 112 (12 Week 1.) That's a near historic pace; only Reggie Bush has had more than 82 targets in the last 20 years, and he wasn't a day 3 draft pick.

112-81-770-4*

*ties Edge and Forte for most of any rookie RB in the last 20 seasons

186 touches is almost 12 per game. 1321 total yards, 7 TDs, 255.10 points. That's RB7 in full PPR in 2014 & 2016, RB3 in 2015.

Which seems really, really absurd. There's a very low chance he stays healthy, continues to get the opportunity, and seizes that chance with historic results. You're asking for the perfect storm if you think ALL of that is going to happen this year. 

Let's drop the rookie comparisons and look at Sproles. Discounting the first 3 years (mostly return man), the little man has had between 705 and 911 yards 7 of the last 8 years. He had 1313 YFS (86 receptions) and 9 TDs in 2011. In the other 7 years, he has averaged 793 yards YFS (58 catches) and 5 TDs rushing/receiving.

I think that's probably as good a floor as any. I mean Sproles is a really special, not too many his size have succeeded at his level. Mack Herron back in the mid-70s. Probably a few others I am forgetting about. It's really, really rare.

60 catches, 800 YFS and 5 TDs would be a really good season for a guy that most people thought was headed for UDFA back in April.

So I guess his range is 60-80 catches, 800-1300 YFS, and 5-7 TDs. If he goes over 1K and scores 6 TDs, that's gonna make him a solid RB2 in PPR.
This is some good analysis and stat extrapolation.

But I do think that it misses a few variables. 

First, I think that it ignores how bad the Bears receivers are. Divvying up RB pass targets based on previous years for the Bears or any normal situation is very likely underselling the targets the Chicago RBs will have.

Secondly, I understand you broke things down like you did for a reason, but I think it ends up leaving out comparables like Tyreek Hill. Hill was a guy without a real position until injuries gave him a chance and now the Chiefs are going to use him a ton due to his obvious talent. A similar situation may be playing out in Chicago. I could see Cohen lined up as a WR a bunch or doubled up in the back field and motioning out wide. He clearly has talent, it would be foolish for the Bears not to use it when they have a significant lack of talent outside of Howard.

Thirdly, there are some pretty strong indicators that the Bears really like him and want him to be an important part of the offense.

I don't think he is a RB1, but a nice RB2 with RB1 weeks potential with his explosiveness is pretty nice.

And as I'm posting this, I just read that Howard was limited in practice today due to a shoulder injury.

 
In my one league where I couldn't pick him up before week 1 because he was locked (someone dropped him to grab Palmer  :shock: ) someone just made a trade to get 25% more free agent bidding money.  I'm guessing he is about to blow the bank on Cohen and bit over 100% of the years base spending cap.

 
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Got him off waivers and leaning toward starting him over Riddick, but I think the hype has gone too far. Can someone tell me why his ceiling isn't peak Sproles? Which is not nothing, but is also not a league-winner.

 
In my one league where I couldn't pick him up before week 1 because he was locked (someone dropped him to grab Palmer  :shock: ) someone just made a trade to get 25% more free agent bidding money.  I'm guessing he is about to blow the bank on Cohen and bit over 100% of the years base spending cap.
So he just went for 104% of the FAAB cap in this league. (Guy traded to get more $ to spend).

 
zftcg said:
Got him off waivers and leaning toward starting him over Riddick, but I think the hype has gone too far. Can someone tell me why his ceiling isn't peak Sproles? Which is not nothing, but is also not a league-winner.
Just looks a little thicker and more solid than him. He doesn't look like a 3 down back but I think he's not far from cook or cmc size wise

 
zftcg said:
Got him off waivers and leaning toward starting him over Riddick, but I think the hype has gone too far. Can someone tell me why his ceiling isn't peak Sproles? Which is not nothing, but is also not a league-winner.
Remember that peak Sproles was 603 rushing yards and 86/710 receiving with 9 total TDs.  Off the wire, that's absolutely a league winner.

Now, the Bears ain't the 2011 Saints, but a speed-kills back who sees 12-15 opportunities a game is an awful enticing freebie, no matter where he plays.

 
Tool said:
Wow. I mean...  get that he's a good player but he is kinda a backup rb...
He isn't really a backup, he's a change of pace RB.  No he isn't going to be a 3 down back but hardly anyone is now. Will he get goal line carries like Howard will no, will he catch a bunch of passes, yes. Will he have more big plays then Howard, most likely. This is a guy just like tyreek. He isn't having that great of a game but all of a sudden takes a screen pass 80 yards for a TD and then wins you the week.

 
Remember that peak Sproles was 603 rushing yards and 86/710 receiving with 9 total TDs.  Off the wire, that's absolutely a league winner.

Now, the Bears ain't the 2011 Saints, but a speed-kills back who sees 12-15 opportunities a game is an awful enticing freebie, no matter where he plays.
I hope you're right. And I chose him over Buck Allen based on the assumption, "When in doubt, go for talent." I went with a "1RB strategy" in my draft this year, taking DeMarco in the first and then a bunch of CoP/dart throws (Woodhead, Riddick, Rex) later on. So I'll be thrilled if he can move to the head of that group and become a reliable RB2. Anything beyond that is gravy.

 
I haven't gone through all of the pages to check if it's been mentioned already, but one other thing to keep in mind with this is that the Bears drafted Cohen with the 12th pick in the 4th round. That might not sound high, but it's pretty decent draft capital for an undersized, supposed change of pace/gadget RB, or a guy who might have just been viewed as a gimmick back or a punt returner coming out. For the Bears to draft him that high (before the great Joe Williams btw!) means that they had genuine plans to make use of him, not just give him a touch or two per game in a specific package. For that reason alone, I wouldn't be worried about his role. Sure, things broke right for him this weekend, but he will continue to be used, if not featured. He's also very tough for his size, which he showed at college, so I'm not worried about durability either - Donnell Pumphrey this guy ain't.

 
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Got him for 801. Next highest was 700 which I accurately predicted would be the top bid. Temperament wise, I absolutely swing for the fence. So we shall see....

This is an FFPC team where I punted RB. Woodhead was my best.

 
I was lucky to get him off the FA pool un my league with the 7th shot.  No idea why no one else was interested.

Question for those more knowledgable than I (which is probably most of you).  I see a Chicago team whose WRs are decimated with injury and in need of a jolt on the outside.  Plus a team with a less than high end QB throwing the ball.  How hard is it to visualize Cohen playing a lot of slot position routes to give this team both Howard and Cohen on the field at the same time and both being threats?  Am I off base with this idea?

 
Yes, with a team with Howard, I wouldn't spend that much for Cohen.

 
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zftcg said:
Got him off waivers and leaning toward starting him over Riddick, but I think the hype has gone too far. Can someone tell me why his ceiling isn't peak Sproles? Which is not nothing, but is also not a league-winner.
I think in PPR he is more Dion Lewis than Sproles. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Starting him over Rob Kelley and Ameer Abdullah in PPR for what we all know will be a hug letdown game. 
I don't see the Bears controlling this game with Howard. Cohen could see a lot of targets from Glennon with their lack of receivers especially with his propensity to check it down. 

 
I haven't gone through all of the pages to check if it's been mentioned already, but one other thing to keep in mind with this is that the Bears drafted Cohen with the 12th pick in the 4th round. That might not sound high, but it's pretty decent draft capital for an undersized, supposed change of pace/gadget RB, or a guy who might have just been viewed as a gimmick back or a punt returner coming out. For the Bears to draft him that high (before the great Joe Williams btw!) means that they had genuine plans to make use of him, not just give him a touch or two per game in a specific package. For that reason alone, I wouldn't be worried about his role. Sure, things broke right for him this weekend, but he will continue to be used, if not featured. He's also very tough for his size, which he showed at college, so I'm not worried about durability either - Donnell Pumphrey this guy ain't.
ehh, their 2nd round pick only saw 9 snaps, cohen is on the field because in camp and pre-season he showed he could be a playmaker on an offense that ptherwise lacks playmakers

he went for 80% and 52% in my two leagues

 
ehh, their 2nd round pick only saw 9 snaps, cohen is on the field because in camp and pre-season he showed he could be a playmaker on an offense that ptherwise lacks playmakers

he went for 80% and 52% in my two leagues
his point is that he's not a 5th or 6th round throw away... not that he's a higher pick and will get playing time.

it's as valid of a point as "Kansas city traded up for Hunt so they like him and plan to use him" 

 
He isn't really a backup, he's a change of pace RB.  No he isn't going to be a 3 down back but hardly anyone is now. Will he get goal line carries like Howard will no, will he catch a bunch of passes, yes. Will he have more big plays then Howard, most likely. This is a guy just like tyreek. He isn't having that great of a game but all of a sudden takes a screen pass 80 yards for a TD and then wins you the week.
If Hill is the comparison, I'd be really worried about the head coach difference.  Hill has maybe the most innovative, creative offensive coach and Cohen has John Fox.  To me, Hill himself in Chicago would be something like Tavon Austin with Jeff Fisher. 

 
you wait - this weekend Cohen gets 3 carries, 8 yards, 3 targets and 2 catches for 12 yards only

and people will be crushed 

 
Lost Cohen by $3 (I bid 62/100) and the guy who one had DJ and nobody else and I play against him this week. Talk about soul crushing. My RBs suck so bad.

 
If Hill is the comparison, I'd be really worried about the head coach difference.  Hill has maybe the most innovative, creative offensive coach and Cohen has John Fox.  To me, Hill himself in Chicago would be something like Tavon Austin with Jeff Fisher. 
Dowell Loggains would be the guy running the offense.  I've not been impressed with him in his previous stops but to be fair that guy accepts the most god awful jobs to be an offensive coach. Titans before Mariotta, Cleveland and now Chicago.

So I'm not sure on Loggains but in this case I think he's off to a masterful start and I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. He smartly did not show his hand in preseason, barely played Cohen in week 3 and if they threw it to him at all in the preseason I think it was one short pass.  Considering he is working with lame duck Glennon, Kendall Wright as his #1 WR the offense was pretty efficient and I don't think anyone could watch that game last week and come away thinking he failed to maximize Cohen and considering the talent he had to work maximize the offense in general.

You mention John Fox and that is something lost in all this. I know of no coach who is more loathe to play rookies early, less yet feature them. Granted Howard balled out last year but it took him a few weeks and they pretty much had to, which I guess the same argument could be made now-that they have to. But for a John Fox team to so prominently feature a rookie in game one is just not something I expected to see and is yet again another positive sign for Cohens immediate future.

 
Just looks a little thicker and more solid than him. He doesn't look like a 3 down back but I think he's not far from cook or cmc size wise
Per NFL.com...

Dalvin Cook 5'10 209

CMC            5'll 205

Darren Sproles 5'6 190

Tarik Cohen 5'6 181

 
Per NFL.com...

Dalvin Cook 5'10 209

CMC            5'll 205

Darren Sproles 5'6 190

Tarik Cohen 5'6 181
If someone is a BMI believer those players are all pretty similar, CMC has the lowest.

But no I don't think he's a 3 down back, a 3 down weapon maybe, not a 3 down back.

 

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