BobbyLayne
Footballguy
In the last 20 years (1997-2016), there have been 15 rookie RBs who had more than 45 receptions.
Of those 15, at least 8 of them seem like not a good comp because they of their 3-down workload (Forte, Edge, LT2, Richardson, Slaton, D. Martin, Dom Williams, L. Bell.)
The other 7 were CoP backs or in a time share:
105-551-3
RB targets for CHI last 3 years: 96, 105, and 137. Here I like to look at the Forte era. Different back/regime, but I think it gives you some idea of how many targets we might see. I'd go one step further and point to DET/Riddick as a good comp. I could see the Bears having 160 RB targets this year. They had 17 last week (I believe that will be an outlier at YE), so with 143 remaining, I got Howard getting 48 (5 fm Week 1), Cohen 112 (12 Week 1.) That's a near historic pace; only Reggie Bush has had more than 82 targets in the last 20 years, and he wasn't a day 3 draft pick.
112-81-770-4*
*ties Edge and Forte for most of any rookie RB in the last 20 seasons
186 touches is almost 12 per game. 1321 total yards, 7 TDs, 255.10 points. That's RB7 in full PPR in 2014 & 2016, RB3 in 2015.
Which seems really, really absurd. There's a very low chance he stays healthy, continues to get the opportunity, and seizes that chance with historic results. You're asking for the perfect storm if you think ALL of that is going to happen this year.
Let's drop the rookie comparisons and look at Sproles. Discounting the first 3 years (mostly return man), the little man has had between 705 and 911 yards 7 of the last 8 years. He had 1313 YFS (86 receptions) and 9 TDs in 2011. In the other 7 years, he has averaged 793 yards YFS (58 catches) and 5 TDs rushing/receiving.
I think that's probably as good a floor as any. I mean Sproles is a really special, not too many his size have succeeded at his level. Mack Herron back in the mid-70s. Probably a few others I am forgetting about. It's really, really rare.
60 catches, 800 YFS and 5 TDs would be a really good season for a guy that most people thought was headed for UDFA back in April.
So I guess his range is 60-80 catches, 800-1300 YFS, and 5-7 TDs. If he goes over 1K and scores 6 TDs, that's gonna make him a solid RB2 in PPR.
Of those 15, at least 8 of them seem like not a good comp because they of their 3-down workload (Forte, Edge, LT2, Richardson, Slaton, D. Martin, Dom Williams, L. Bell.)
The other 7 were CoP backs or in a time share:
- Reggie Bush 2006 155-565-6 121-88-742-2
- Duke Johnson 2015 104-379-0 74-61-534-2
- Jahvid Best 2010 171-555-4 80-58-487-2
- Gio Bernard 2013 170-695-5 71-56-514-3
- Roy Helu 2011 151-640-2 59-49-379-1
- M. Jones-Drew 2006 166-941-13 62-46-436-2
- J. Allen 2015 137-514-1 62-45-353-2
- 90 or more - 0
- 80-89 - 1
- 70-79 - 0
- 60-69 - 3
- 50-59 - 8
- 120 or more - 1
- 110-119 - 0
- 100-109 - 0
- 90-99 - 0
- 80-89 - 2
- 70-79 - 7
105-551-3
RB targets for CHI last 3 years: 96, 105, and 137. Here I like to look at the Forte era. Different back/regime, but I think it gives you some idea of how many targets we might see. I'd go one step further and point to DET/Riddick as a good comp. I could see the Bears having 160 RB targets this year. They had 17 last week (I believe that will be an outlier at YE), so with 143 remaining, I got Howard getting 48 (5 fm Week 1), Cohen 112 (12 Week 1.) That's a near historic pace; only Reggie Bush has had more than 82 targets in the last 20 years, and he wasn't a day 3 draft pick.
112-81-770-4*
*ties Edge and Forte for most of any rookie RB in the last 20 seasons
186 touches is almost 12 per game. 1321 total yards, 7 TDs, 255.10 points. That's RB7 in full PPR in 2014 & 2016, RB3 in 2015.
Which seems really, really absurd. There's a very low chance he stays healthy, continues to get the opportunity, and seizes that chance with historic results. You're asking for the perfect storm if you think ALL of that is going to happen this year.
Let's drop the rookie comparisons and look at Sproles. Discounting the first 3 years (mostly return man), the little man has had between 705 and 911 yards 7 of the last 8 years. He had 1313 YFS (86 receptions) and 9 TDs in 2011. In the other 7 years, he has averaged 793 yards YFS (58 catches) and 5 TDs rushing/receiving.
I think that's probably as good a floor as any. I mean Sproles is a really special, not too many his size have succeeded at his level. Mack Herron back in the mid-70s. Probably a few others I am forgetting about. It's really, really rare.
60 catches, 800 YFS and 5 TDs would be a really good season for a guy that most people thought was headed for UDFA back in April.
So I guess his range is 60-80 catches, 800-1300 YFS, and 5-7 TDs. If he goes over 1K and scores 6 TDs, that's gonna make him a solid RB2 in PPR.