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**Redraft 2017 ADP: Too high? Too low?**


Ilov80s

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For standard, these 3 TEs seem interesting.

Gronk is in his age 28 year season, plays in one of the likely highest scoring offenses in the league, averages 0.91 TD/game for his career, has played in 80% of the potential games over the last 3 years, is 100% healthy right now and has led the TE position in ppg for 3 straight years. 

Kelce is in his age 28 year season, plays in likely one of the likely lower scoring offenses in the league, averages 0.29 TD/game for his career, has played in 100% of the potential games over the last 4 years, is dealing with knee soreness and his 2016 fantasy leading 136 fantasy points is only the 11th highest most points in a season for a TE over the last 3 years. 

Olsen is in his age 32 season, plays in a middle of the road offense, averages 0.33 TD/game for his career, has played 100% of the potential games over the last 3 years, is healthy and has posted better numbers than Kelce for 2 of the last 3 seasons. 

Gronk is going 20th, Kelce 40th, Olsen 54th. 

 

What do we think of the value on these 3 TEs?

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30 minutes ago, Weebs210 said:

Danny Woodhead standard adp is low 40s right now. That is way to high.

Where do you think is more fair? It does seem high for an old recently injured satellite back.

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38 minutes ago, Weebs210 said:

Danny Woodhead standard adp is low 40s right now. That is way to high.

I hope someone takes him there in my leagues

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7 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Where do you think is more fair? It does seem high for an old recently injured satellite back.

Pretty far for standard. It's crazy that he is above ware/cj/Blount. I would drop him closer to West.

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

For standard, these 3 TEs seem interesting.

Gronk is in his age 28 year season, plays in one of the likely highest scoring offenses in the league, averages 0.91 TD/game for his career, has played in 80% of the potential games over the last 3 years, is 100% healthy right now and has led the TE position in ppg for 3 straight years. 

Kelce is in his age 28 year season, plays in likely one of the likely lower scoring offenses in the league, averages 0.29 TD/game for his career, has played in 100% of the potential games over the last 4 years, is dealing with knee soreness and his 2016 fantasy leading 136 fantasy points is only the 11th highest most points in a season for a TE over the last 3 years. 

Olsen is in his age 32 season, plays in a middle of the road offense, averages 0.33 TD/game for his career, has played 100% of the potential games over the last 3 years, is healthy and has posted better numbers than Kelce for 2 of the last 3 seasons. 

Gronk is going 20th, Kelce 40th, Olsen 54th. 

 

What do we think of the value on these 3 TEs?

Would take gronk anywhere after mid round 2.   Don't think I will target Olsen or kelce as they always seem to go around RB and wr I like.  But they seem to be going in the right places.  Kinda thought kelce would go a little higher. Wonder how cmc targets might effect Olsen?

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20 minutes ago, Weebs210 said:

Kind of off topic but it blew my mind to see Rudolph finished TE2 in standard. Maybe he is a little under valued.

Totally on topic. He is a guy I am trying to figure out. 132 is a lot of  targets. Can we expect it remain near that level? 

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I am seeing Corey Davis go early 10th and  John Ross going end of the 12th. I know in late rounds the ADP difference is less meaningful, but why are these 2 so far apart?

Both were picked very high, both have been bothered by injuries, both are on offenses that have made players good for fantasy, both QB situations are above average and stable. Are people sleeping on John Ross?

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19 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I am seeing Corey Davis go early 10th and  John Ross going end of the 12th. I know in late rounds the ADP difference is less meaningful, but why are these 2 so far apart?

Both were picked very high, both have been bothered by injuries, both are on offenses that have made players good for fantasy, both QB situations are above average and stable. Are people sleeping on John Ross?

Corey Davis a true #1 WR.  Ross is a small speedster.  If Davis is healthy to start the season, I think he should be closer to a 8th or 9th round pick.  I don't have Ross on my draft board as AJ Green is that passing game.

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24 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I am seeing Corey Davis go early 10th and  John Ross going end of the 12th. I know in late rounds the ADP difference is less meaningful, but why are these 2 so far apart?

Both were picked very high, both have been bothered by injuries, both are on offenses that have made players good for fantasy, both QB situations are above average and stable. Are people sleeping on John Ross?

Side question 80s where are you seeing Mike Williams go in that mix? (yet another young WR with injuries)

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24 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I am seeing Corey Davis go early 10th and  John Ross going end of the 12th. I know in late rounds the ADP difference is less meaningful, but why are these 2 so far apart?

Both were picked very high, both have been bothered by injuries, both are on offenses that have made players good for fantasy, both QB situations are above average and stable. Are people sleeping on John Ross?

I like Ross and he is a player I tend to Target in the last rounds.  Also like Ted Ginn.  But he goes a little sooner

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2 minutes ago, abbottjamesr said:

I think J. Graham is being drafted too late.  I have him and Kelce similarly valued.  

Good one.  He's there in the fifth alot. I like him there

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4 minutes ago, abbottjamesr said:

I think all the WR's between WR9 and WR25 are being drafted too high in Standard non-ppr leagues by about a round.  I'm probably going RB or maybe even QB if Rodgers/Brady falls in the third.

Rodgers always goes in the second in mocks I do.  Brady sometimes goes through the 3rd but not usually. Both these guys will be gone very early in my leagues

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Just now, need2know said:

Rodgers always goes in the second in mocks I do.  Brady sometimes goes through the 3rd but not usually. Both these guys will be gone very early in my leagues

I don't expect them to be there, but I can't do it in the second but would in the third.  

Happy taking Lynch, Crowell, Hyde, Cook in the third over the WR's that typically go there.

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18 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

Where do you think is more fair? It does seem high for an old recently injured satellite back.

Well where is Jamaal Charles going? He's an all time great coming off a similar injury.......

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4 minutes ago, abbottjamesr said:

I don't expect them to be there, but I can't do it in the second but would in the third.  

Happy taking Lynch, Crowell, Hyde, Cook in the third over the WR's that typically go there.

I love Hyde and cook.  They will def be gone in the third or fourth.

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1 minute ago, Milkman said:

Well where is Jamaal Charles going? He's an all time great coming off a similar injury.......

Laaaaaaattttteee

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Just now, Milkman said:

Well there you go......Jamaal is to low and Woodhead is to high.......

Charles seems like a guy who would shoot up higher if he had one good run in preseason

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Just now, need2know said:

Charles seems like a guy who would shoot up higher if he had one good run in preseason

Word I'm getting is Denver knows what they got in Jamaal so they aren't going to work him to much in the preseason......

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Just now, need2know said:

Charles seems like a guy who would shoot up higher if he had one good run in preseason

If Charles cant get healthy after a year and change off, he aint going to get healthy ever.  He is not rosterable except in the depest of leagues.  Woodhead might be the leading receiver on that team and redzone back.

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Just now, abbottjamesr said:

If Charles cant get healthy after a year and change off, he aint going to get healthy ever.  He is not rosterable except in the depest of leagues.  Woodhead might be the leading receiver on that team and redzone back.

I think he's worth like the last guy on your roster pick. 

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Just now, abbottjamesr said:

If Charles cant get healthy after a year and change off, he aint going to get healthy ever.  He is not rosterable except in the depest of leagues.  Woodhead might be the leading receiver on that team and redzone back.

Or he could be Denver's #1 RB this year.......

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4 minutes ago, abbottjamesr said:

If Charles cant get healthy after a year and change off, he aint going to get healthy ever.  He is not rosterable except in the depest of leagues.  Woodhead might be the leading receiver on that team and redzone back.

:confused:

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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

:confused:

We saw him last year try to comeback and he didn't look the same.  We then saw KC drop him.  Not trade him, just straight up fire him.  Then we see Denver sign him to a nothing contract will almost nothing guaranteed.  Then he has been barely practicing and certainly not with the ones.  All the reports I have heard from camp are that while he is fully released as healthy he still isn't cutting strong, and still not running at full speed.  

Maybe Denver is hiding something to unveil week 1, but I don't see it.  Maybe he gets a scat back role on passing downs.  But maybe just maybe he is toast and wont make the final 53.

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3 minutes ago, abbottjamesr said:

We saw him last year try to comeback and he didn't look the same.  We then saw KC drop him.  Not trade him, just straight up fire him.  Then we see Denver sign him to a nothing contract will almost nothing guaranteed.  Then he has been barely practicing and certainly not with the ones.  All the reports I have heard from camp are that while he is fully released as healthy he still isn't cutting strong, and still not running at full speed.  

Maybe Denver is hiding something to unveil week 1, but I don't see it.  Maybe he gets a scat back role on passing downs.  But maybe just maybe he is toast and wont make the final 53.

I was more confused at the Woodhead comment.... who plays in Baltimore.

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34 minutes ago, abbottjamesr said:

I think J. Graham is being drafted too late.  I have him and Kelce similarly valued.  

I'm with ya. I'll be targeting Graham and Eifert as I think they're the two most undervalued TEs at their current ADP. If I miss on those two, I'll be punting the position and end up with an Ebron or Dwayne Allen type in the late rounds.

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49 minutes ago, abbottjamesr said:

Corey Davis a true #1 WR.  Ross is a small speedster.  If Davis is healthy to start the season, I think he should be closer to a 8th or 9th round pick.  I don't have Ross on my draft board as AJ Green is that passing game.

Yes, Ross is small. So is Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill, Brandin Cooks, etc. Based on what I saw in college, he can be a lot more than the Mike Wallace/Desean Jackson comp I see getting thrown around. AJ Green is the number 1 in the passing game and Eiffert will get looks. OTOH, Rishard, Decker and Walker are likely going to get similar target numbers to AJ+Eiffert. 

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10 minutes ago, AllVolUT said:

I'm with ya. I'll be targeting Graham and Eifert as I think they're the two most undervalued TEs at their current ADP. If I miss on those two, I'll be punting the position and end up with an Ebron or Dwayne Allen type in the late rounds.

I agree- I especially love Eiffert's value. He is healthy now and on a per game basis, only Gronk and Reed can compete with him. 

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34 minutes ago, need2know said:

Charles seems like a guy who would shoot up higher if he had one good run in preseason

The problem is Charles is still not even ready to play. He is sitting out this week of preseason. I can't see any reason to draft him at this point. 

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40 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Well where is Jamaal Charles going? He's an all time great coming off a similar injury.......

The difference  is Charles injury happened in week 5 of 2015, Woodhead's was week 2 of 2016. We around 22 months removed from Charles injury and every indication has been negative. 

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21 minutes ago, Deamon said:

I was more confused at the Woodhead comment.... who plays in Baltimore.

My bad.  

last year the leading reciever in Balt had 114 targets.  The RB's on the team had a combined 147.

I can see Woodhead getting 100+ targets this year (if Flacco is healthy)

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If Denver keeps Charles on the 53-man roster, IMO that is a strong sign he's near full health and no one else within three zip codes of him in ADP will have his amount of upside.

Denver is currently pretty deep at RB with CJ, Booker (inj but he'll make roster), good-looking rookie Henderson, Ridley (ran hard 1st preseason) game and J. Thompson. So there's no reason to keep Charles if Elway doesn't see home run potential.

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All non-ppr

Some RB's that are off for me.  

Jamaal Williams (GB) should be more like RB38 than RB50. 
Mark  Ingram should be RB30 not RB20
Herrick Henery is RB50 for me not RB34

Some WR's that are off

Brandon Marshall and Martavis Bryant should be in the same tier as the fourth round WR's
Marvin Jones and Tyrell Williams are worth 7th round picks
Tyrek Hill is closer to WR15 than WR25.

 

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

I am seeing Corey Davis go early 10th and  John Ross going end of the 12th. I know in late rounds the ADP difference is less meaningful, but why are these 2 so far apart?

Both were picked very high, both have been bothered by injuries, both are on offenses that have made players good for fantasy, both QB situations are above average and stable. Are people sleeping on John Ross?

 

1 hour ago, abbottjamesr said:

Corey Davis a true #1 WR.  Ross is a small speedster.  If Davis is healthy to start the season, I think he should be closer to a 8th or 9th round pick.  I don't have Ross on my draft board as AJ Green is that passing game.

Yep. I obviously could be completely wrong but in dynasty I'd much rather have Malone at their costs. In redraft I'm avoiding Ross and won't be in a league deep enough to take Malone (in redraft.) 

23 minutes ago, abbottjamesr said:

 

Herrick Henery is RB50 for me not RB34

 

Who? ?

Henry is all over the place. I think he can be a guy who helps win the league or could be unstartable. If I'm looking for some upside he's on my short list. Rb34 seems low imho.

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@-OZ- @abbottjamesr Is size the main reason you see a big difference between the two for redraft? I know AJG is going to command 140 targets, but when you factor in what Decker and Rishard will get, plus the likelihood the Bengals throw the ball more than the Titans (they threw 60 more passes last year), doesn't that level the target potential? 

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7 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

@-OZ- @abbottjamesr Is size the main reason you see a big difference between the two for redraft? I know AJG is going to command 140 targets, but when you factor in what Decker and Rishard will get, plus the likelihood the Bengals throw the ball more than the Titans (they threw 60 more passes last year), doesn't that level the target potential? 

The titans run a lot of two WR sets so as long is Davis is one of the top two backs he will see more than one of Decker and Rishard.  I used to think it was going to be that Decker would be one of the two by I think he is the 3rd WR and mostly used on 3rd downs and redzone which has value, but not enough to justify his draft spot.

I just havn't heard anything about Ross this preseason to get excited.  Between Green, Bernard, Mixon, Eifert I just don't know whats left as well.

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Just now, abbottjamesr said:

The titans run a lot of two WR sets so as long is Davis is one of the top two backs he will see more than one of Decker and Rishard.  I used to think it was going to be that Decker would be one of the two by I think he is the 3rd WR and mostly used on 3rd downs and redzone which has value, but not enough to justify his draft spot.

I just havn't heard anything about Ross this preseason to get excited.  Between Green, Bernard, Mixon, Eifert I just don't know whats left as well.

Ross just began practicing. I am curious to hear reports. I know Davis had glowing reports but then got hurt again. It might just come down to who can actually stay healthy. I look at Ross and see the athletic gifts of Tyreek Hill + the receiver profile of a super stud prospect. Ross has 100th percentile speed, 86th percentile burst,93rd percentile breakout age, 86th percentile ypr, 63rd percentile college dominator. He's a superb prospect and I'll inject those John Ross highlights right into my veins. 

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49 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:

MFL has his standard ADP at 91 and PPR at 78. Definitely willing to pay that price in PPR. 

FF Calculator has him at 80 in standard and 46 PPR. 

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2 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

@-OZ- @abbottjamesr Is size the main reason you see a big difference between the two for redraft? I know AJG is going to command 140 targets, but when you factor in what Decker and Rishard will get, plus the likelihood the Bengals throw the ball more than the Titans (they threw 60 more passes last year), doesn't that level the target potential? 

I'm just not a fan of Ross. Injury risk seems higher with him for one, second he's a deep threat and fairly low on the totem pole in Cincy.  Davis has the potential to be the top receiver in Nashville and the better qb. 

Cincy's offense could be interesting this year. Green and eifert clearly 1 and 2, then their backs will be involved as possibly a 3 headed monster. But really aside from green and eifert I'm staying away.

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46 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

I'm just not a fan of Ross. Injury risk seems higher with him for one, second he's a deep threat and fairly low on the totem pole in Cincy.  Davis has the potential to be the top receiver in Nashville and the better qb. 

Cincy's offense could be interesting this year. Green and eifert clearly 1 and 2, then their backs will be involved as possibly a 3 headed monster. But really aside from green and eifert I'm staying away.

Eiffert doesn't get a lot of targets. If you look at his targets per game over the last 2 years, it comes out to 92 per 16. Ross can get more targets than that. Boyd and Lafell shouldn't threaten his numbers. 

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