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**Redraft 2017 ADP: Too high? Too low?** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ilov80s
- Start date
Ilov80s
Footballguy
For standard, these 3 TEs seem interesting.
Gronk is in his age 28 year season, plays in one of the likely highest scoring offenses in the league, averages 0.91 TD/game for his career, has played in 80% of the potential games over the last 3 years, is 100% healthy right now and has led the TE position in ppg for 3 straight years.
Kelce is in his age 28 year season, plays in likely one of the likely lower scoring offenses in the league, averages 0.29 TD/game for his career, has played in 100% of the potential games over the last 4 years, is dealing with knee soreness and his 2016 fantasy leading 136 fantasy points is only the 11th highest most points in a season for a TE over the last 3 years.
Olsen is in his age 32 season, plays in a middle of the road offense, averages 0.33 TD/game for his career, has played 100% of the potential games over the last 3 years, is healthy and has posted better numbers than Kelce for 2 of the last 3 seasons.
Gronk is going 20th, Kelce 40th, Olsen 54th.
What do we think of the value on these 3 TEs?
Gronk is in his age 28 year season, plays in one of the likely highest scoring offenses in the league, averages 0.91 TD/game for his career, has played in 80% of the potential games over the last 3 years, is 100% healthy right now and has led the TE position in ppg for 3 straight years.
Kelce is in his age 28 year season, plays in likely one of the likely lower scoring offenses in the league, averages 0.29 TD/game for his career, has played in 100% of the potential games over the last 4 years, is dealing with knee soreness and his 2016 fantasy leading 136 fantasy points is only the 11th highest most points in a season for a TE over the last 3 years.
Olsen is in his age 32 season, plays in a middle of the road offense, averages 0.33 TD/game for his career, has played 100% of the potential games over the last 3 years, is healthy and has posted better numbers than Kelce for 2 of the last 3 seasons.
Gronk is going 20th, Kelce 40th, Olsen 54th.
What do we think of the value on these 3 TEs?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Where do you think is more fair? It does seem high for an old recently injured satellite back.
need2know
Footballguy
Weebs210
Footballguy
Pretty far for standard. It's crazy that he is above ware/cj/Blount. I would drop him closer to West.
need2know
Footballguy
Would take gronk anywhere after mid round 2. Don't think I will target Olsen or kelce as they always seem to go around RB and wr I like. But they seem to be going in the right places. Kinda thought kelce would go a little higher. Wonder how cmc targets might effect Olsen?
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Totally on topic. He is a guy I am trying to figure out. 132 is a lot of targets. Can we expect it remain near that level?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I am seeing Corey Davis go early 10th and John Ross going end of the 12th. I know in late rounds the ADP difference is less meaningful, but why are these 2 so far apart?
Both were picked very high, both have been bothered by injuries, both are on offenses that have made players good for fantasy, both QB situations are above average and stable. Are people sleeping on John Ross?
Both were picked very high, both have been bothered by injuries, both are on offenses that have made players good for fantasy, both QB situations are above average and stable. Are people sleeping on John Ross?
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Corey Davis a true #1 WR. Ross is a small speedster. If Davis is healthy to start the season, I think he should be closer to a 8th or 9th round pick. I don't have Ross on my draft board as AJ Green is that passing game.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I think all the WR's between WR9 and WR25 are being drafted too high in Standard non-ppr leagues by about a round. I'm probably going RB or maybe even QB if Rodgers/Brady falls in the third.
Statorama
gangster
Side question 80s where are you seeing Mike Williams go in that mix? (yet another young WR with injuries)
need2know
Footballguy
I like Ross and he is a player I tend to Target in the last rounds. Also like Ted Ginn. But he goes a little sooner
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I think J. Graham is being drafted too late. I have him and Kelce similarly valued.
need2know
Footballguy
need2know
Footballguy
Rodgers always goes in the second in mocks I do. Brady sometimes goes through the 3rd but not usually. Both these guys will be gone very early in my leagues
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I don't expect them to be there, but I can't do it in the second but would in the third.
Happy taking Lynch, Crowell, Hyde, Cook in the third over the WR's that typically go there.
need2know
Footballguy
need2know
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
need2know
Footballguy
Charles seems like a guy who would shoot up higher if he had one good run in preseason
Milkman
Footballguy
Word I'm getting is Denver knows what they got in Jamaal so they aren't going to work him to much in the preseason......
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
If Charles cant get healthy after a year and change off, he aint going to get healthy ever. He is not rosterable except in the depest of leagues. Woodhead might be the leading receiver on that team and redzone back.
need2know
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
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need2know
Footballguy
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
We saw him last year try to comeback and he didn't look the same. We then saw KC drop him. Not trade him, just straight up fire him. Then we see Denver sign him to a nothing contract will almost nothing guaranteed. Then he has been barely practicing and certainly not with the ones. All the reports I have heard from camp are that while he is fully released as healthy he still isn't cutting strong, and still not running at full speed.
Maybe Denver is hiding something to unveil week 1, but I don't see it. Maybe he gets a scat back role on passing downs. But maybe just maybe he is toast and wont make the final 53.
Deamon
Footballguy
AllVolUT
Footballguy
I'm with ya. I'll be targeting Graham and Eifert as I think they're the two most undervalued TEs at their current ADP. If I miss on those two, I'll be punting the position and end up with an Ebron or Dwayne Allen type in the late rounds.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yes, Ross is small. So is Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill, Brandin Cooks, etc. Based on what I saw in college, he can be a lot more than the Mike Wallace/Desean Jackson comp I see getting thrown around. AJ Green is the number 1 in the passing game and Eiffert will get looks. OTOH, Rishard, Decker and Walker are likely going to get similar target numbers to AJ+Eiffert.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I agree- I especially love Eiffert's value. He is healthy now and on a per game basis, only Gronk and Reed can compete with him.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The problem is Charles is still not even ready to play. He is sitting out this week of preseason. I can't see any reason to draft him at this point.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The difference is Charles injury happened in week 5 of 2015, Woodhead's was week 2 of 2016. We around 22 months removed from Charles injury and every indication has been negative.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
My bad.
last year the leading reciever in Balt had 114 targets. The RB's on the team had a combined 147.
I can see Woodhead getting 100+ targets this year (if Flacco is healthy)
If Denver keeps Charles on the 53-man roster, IMO that is a strong sign he's near full health and no one else within three zip codes of him in ADP will have his amount of upside.
Denver is currently pretty deep at RB with CJ, Booker (inj but he'll make roster), good-looking rookie Henderson, Ridley (ran hard 1st preseason) game and J. Thompson. So there's no reason to keep Charles if Elway doesn't see home run potential.
Denver is currently pretty deep at RB with CJ, Booker (inj but he'll make roster), good-looking rookie Henderson, Ridley (ran hard 1st preseason) game and J. Thompson. So there's no reason to keep Charles if Elway doesn't see home run potential.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
All non-ppr
Some RB's that are off for me.
Jamaal Williams (GB) should be more like RB38 than RB50.
Mark Ingram should be RB30 not RB20
Herrick Henery is RB50 for me not RB34
Some WR's that are off
Brandon Marshall and Martavis Bryant should be in the same tier as the fourth round WR's
Marvin Jones and Tyrell Williams are worth 7th round picks
Tyrek Hill is closer to WR15 than WR25.
Some RB's that are off for me.
Jamaal Williams (GB) should be more like RB38 than RB50.
Mark Ingram should be RB30 not RB20
Herrick Henery is RB50 for me not RB34
Some WR's that are off
Brandon Marshall and Martavis Bryant should be in the same tier as the fourth round WR's
Marvin Jones and Tyrell Williams are worth 7th round picks
Tyrek Hill is closer to WR15 than WR25.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Yep. I obviously could be completely wrong but in dynasty I'd much rather have Malone at their costs. In redraft I'm avoiding Ross and won't be in a league deep enough to take Malone (in redraft.)
Who? ?
Henry is all over the place. I think he can be a guy who helps win the league or could be unstartable. If I'm looking for some upside he's on my short list. Rb34 seems low imho.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
@-OZ- @abbottjamesr Is size the main reason you see a big difference between the two for redraft? I know AJG is going to command 140 targets, but when you factor in what Decker and Rishard will get, plus the likelihood the Bengals throw the ball more than the Titans (they threw 60 more passes last year), doesn't that level the target potential?
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
The titans run a lot of two WR sets so as long is Davis is one of the top two backs he will see more than one of Decker and Rishard. I used to think it was going to be that Decker would be one of the two by I think he is the 3rd WR and mostly used on 3rd downs and redzone which has value, but not enough to justify his draft spot.
I just havn't heard anything about Ross this preseason to get excited. Between Green, Bernard, Mixon, Eifert I just don't know whats left as well.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Ross just began practicing. I am curious to hear reports. I know Davis had glowing reports but then got hurt again. It might just come down to who can actually stay healthy. I look at Ross and see the athletic gifts of Tyreek Hill + the receiver profile of a super stud prospect. Ross has 100th percentile speed, 86th percentile burst,93rd percentile breakout age, 86th percentile ypr, 63rd percentile college dominator. He's a superb prospect and I'll inject those John Ross highlights right into my veins.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
I'm just not a fan of Ross. Injury risk seems higher with him for one, second he's a deep threat and fairly low on the totem pole in Cincy. Davis has the potential to be the top receiver in Nashville and the better qb.
Cincy's offense could be interesting this year. Green and eifert clearly 1 and 2, then their backs will be involved as possibly a 3 headed monster. But really aside from green and eifert I'm staying away.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Mariotta has more upside down the road but I think it's debateable as to which QB is better right now.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Eiffert doesn't get a lot of targets. If you look at his targets per game over the last 2 years, it comes out to 92 per 16. Ross can get more targets than that. Boyd and Lafell shouldn't threaten his numbers.
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