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I know we have a thread similar to it, but I thought this might be fun. I want only 1 prediction about fantasy football only, not teams and if you had to bet your house on it this would be what you picked.

I would take Jamison Crowder over 95 catches.

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Bunch of future homeless folks in this thread!

Josh Gordon plays this season.

JaMarcus Russel UNDER 95 catches.

24 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Bunch of future homeless folks in this thread!

Yes.  Bet the house thread became the extremely bold and nearly impossible prediction thread very quickly.  

ETA- my prediction 

marshawn lynch finishes top 10 RB scoring

Edited by jmo87usc
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Just now, lod001 said:

So far other than the Crowder position. I'll take the opposite on McCaffrey, Gordon and 49ers.

I would feel pretty good betting my house against a parley of unders on the bets above mine (except for BoltBacker's). 

I'm sorry, but I don't get the Crowder love. Do people think Cousins turned into Trent Edwards or Sam Bradford? If Pryor and Doctson are both healthy, Crowder will be lucky to see 80 receptions. Cousins likes to chuck it even when he shouldn't. If he's got Pryor and Doctson on the outside, I don' see him checking down to Crowder that much. Crowder will need some injuries to justify his ADP at this point.

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49 minutes ago, Don't Noonan said:

Christian McCaffrey over 20 touchdowns

Last time we saw that from a rookie RB was Eric Dickerson. Would you agree 10 would still be an amazing season?

Edited by BobbyLayne
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6 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I would feel pretty good betting my house against a parley of unders on the bets above mine (except for BoltBacker's). 

I'm sorry, but I don't get the Crowder love. Do people think Cousins turned into Trent Edwards or Sam Bradford? If Pryor and Doctson are both healthy, Crowder will be lucky to see 80 receptions. Cousins likes to chuck it even when he shouldn't. If he's got Pryor and Doctson on the outside, I don' see him checking down to Crowder that much. Crowder will need some injuries to justify his ADP at this point.

Not to turn this into a Crowder thread, but I would also like to know the thought process that makes him a sure bet for 95+ catches. 

Assuming Cousins throws 600 times again this year, he didn't really lock into any one receiver enough to give that many receptions last year.  Unless you are anticipating Reed being hurt half the year and Doctson to progress slowly, I can't see how anyone gets 95 catches on the team. 

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Antonio Bryant fails to reach the top 20.  A few years ago, I did an in-depth study of how many players in the top-15 repeat the following year.  Among the many things I found was that when most players have been #1 at their position (Outside of QB) for three years straight, for some reason, they fall off a cliff points-wise.  Very few players have repeated in the top-15 past that point.  AB has been #1 at the WR position for four years straight.

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13 minutes ago, Jedi Knight said:

Antonio Bryant fails to reach the top 20.  A few years ago, I did an in-depth study of how many players in the top-15 repeat the following year.  Among the many things I found was that when most players have been #1 at their position (Outside of QB) for three years straight, for some reason, they fall off a cliff points-wise.  Very few players have repeated in the top-15 past that point.  AB has been #1 at the WR position for four years straight.

I didn't know he still played in the league

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18 minutes ago, Jedi Knight said:

Antonio Bryant Brown fails to reach the top 20.  A few years ago, I did an in-depth study of how many players in the top-15 repeat the following year.  Among the many things I found was that when most players have been #1 at their position (Outside of QB) for three years straight, for some reason, they fall off a cliff points-wise.  Very few players have repeated in the top-15 past that point.  AB has been #1 at the WR position for four years straight.

Who would the comps be to AB? Jerry and Marvin? Off the top of my head I can't think of anyone else who has been as consistent as Brown.

Rice - streak of 10 years from year 2 to year 11 when he was #1 8 times, #2 twice. At age 34 (34-35 is often the barrier WRs don't excel past) he finished WR4, injury season, then WR7, In the last 5 years - when he was in completely uncharted territory for a WR - at the ages of 37-41, he was: 38, 26, 11, 12 (at 40!), and 36. Dude was a WR3 at 41. FReak.

Harrison - good, borderline WR2/WR3 for his first 3 seasons. Starting with Peyton's sophomore season, he had an 8 year run of top-9 finishes, four at #1. The cliff was age 35 (and injuries.) 34-36 is often the sharp decline of elite WRs. My first good knock down drag out in TSP was announcing he was done because of his age and declining skills. WR42 that year, rumors and innuendo about the murder, never saw the field again.

Terrell Owens had 7 top four finishes in ten years. Wanna guess how old he was when he hit the cliff? 35-36.

Randy Moss, taking plays off, was number 1 four times in twelve years, couple more at #2, 3 more at 5-10. Unreal talent. Cliff came a couple years earlier Randy (33.)

Antonio Brown turned 29 last month and is entering year 8. At some point he won't be #1, but there's no cliff coming IMO. I'd say he's got at least 4 more years of being top 5, and I don't see any reason why he won't be top 3 this year. 

1 hour ago, BobbyLayne said:
1 hour ago, Don't Noonan said:

Christian McCaffrey over 20 touchdowns

Last time we saw that from a rookie RB was Eric Dickerson. Would you agree 10 would still be an amazing season?

10 TDs for a rookie RB wouldn't be amazing. 12 would be kind of rare - 30 times in the SB era, and all but one of those are guys who had 1K YFS.

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1 hour ago, Jedi Knight said:

Antonio Bryant fails to reach the top 20.  A few years ago, I did an in-depth study of how many players in the top-15 repeat the following year.  Among the many things I found was that when most players have been #1 at their position (Outside of QB) for three years straight, for some reason, they fall off a cliff points-wise.  Very few players have repeated in the top-15 past that point.  AB has been #1 at the WR position for four years straight.

Your post says a WR @ #1 for 3 straight years will fall off a cliff.

You then acknowledge AB has been #1 for 4 straight years.

Might want to rethink the take aways from your "in depth study".

Edited by matuski
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Bold: Tarik Cohen finishes in top 20 RBs.

Bolder: Ted Ginn finishes in top 10 WRs.

Boldest: Tyler Eifert breaks the single season TD record for TEs and finishes as TE1 while Gronk, Olsen and Kelce play 16 games each.

Insanity: Browns finish as top 10 scoring defense and top 3 fantasy defense.

Padded Room: KC stomps a mudhole in New England Week 1 in Foxboro

/thread

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I won't bet my house on anything--but I'll play along this thread. 

My WR predictions are that Dez Bryant ends up being a top 5-6 ppr fantasy WR

Jordan Matthews will be a top 20 ppr fantasy wr if he can manage to stay healthy (huge if I know)

TE predictions:

Ertz will end up being a top 4-5 fantasy WR in ppr

Austin Hooper might end up being the best TE value in drafts and will finish as a top 7 fantasy TE

RB predictions:

Todd Gurley will be a top 5  ppr fantasy RB

Dalvin Cook will have a better fantasy season that Lesean McCoy this year. 

Qb Predictions:

Andy Dalton will be this seasons Matt Ryan in regards to fantasy

 

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15 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

Who would the comps be to AB? Jerry and Marvin? Off the top of my head I can't think of anyone else who has been as consistent as Brown.

Rice - streak of 10 years from year 2 to year 11 when he was #1 8 times, #2 twice. At age 34 (34-35 is often the barrier WRs don't excel past) he finished WR4, injury season, then WR7, In the last 5 years - when he was in completely uncharted territory for a WR - at the ages of 37-41, he was: 38, 26, 11, 12 (at 40!), and 36. Dude was a WR3 at 41. FReak.

Harrison - good, borderline WR2/WR3 for his first 3 seasons. Starting with Peyton's sophomore season, he had an 8 year run of top-9 finishes, four at #1. The cliff was age 35 (and injuries.) 34-36 is often the sharp decline of elite WRs. My first good knock down drag out in TSP was announcing he was done because of his age and declining skills. WR42 that year, rumors and innuendo about the murder, never saw the field again.

Terrell Owens had 7 top four finishes in ten years. Wanna guess how old he was when he hit the cliff? 35-36.

Randy Moss, taking plays off, was number 1 four times in twelve years, couple more at #2, 3 more at 5-10. Unreal talent. Cliff came a couple years earlier Randy (33.)

Antonio Brown turned 29 last month and is entering year 8. At some point he won't be #1, but there's no cliff coming IMO. I'd say he's got at least 4 more years of being top 5, and I don't see any reason why he won't be top 3 this year. 

10 TDs for a rookie RB wouldn't be amazing. 12 would be kind of rare - 30 times in the SB era, and all but one of those are guys who had 1K YFS.

7

There's a cliff coming off any position but some seem to defy the odds.  I think AB is a phenomenal player and I don't seem him falling off the cliff for a few more years unless Big Ben falls off the cliff.  Ben turns 35 this year and has started just 3 full seasons in his 13 year career.  In every single game that Big Ben has missed, AB has scored 0 touchdowns.  I didn't have time to log the stats of Harrison without Manning or Rice without Young.  Neither did I have time for catches without one or the other.  I'll work on that and give you the info.

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