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On 4/4/2018 at 0:13 AM, matuski said:

 

On 4/3/2018 at 11:50 PM, BassNBrew said:

I disagree.  If it was a guessing game, the FBG crowd would be right about half of the time.  They are consistently wrong about 80%+ in these types of threads.

These aren't coin tosses. 

Same as it ever was.

 

Yeah...these were supposed to be the sun comes up tomorrow predictions and 90% were wrong.

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

Yeah...these were supposed to be the sun comes up tomorrow predictions and 90% were wrong.

Again. It isn't a coin toss.

The "best" in this business fare worse than coin tosses.

Apparently crystal balls aren't reliable.  Who knew?

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12 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Yeah...these were supposed to be the sun comes up tomorrow predictions and 90% were wrong.

Well there are thousands of potential outcomes for each teams season. Hundreds of outcomes for each player. So I’d say 90% wrong seems about right. 

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11 hours ago, matuski said:

Again. It isn't a coin toss.

The "best" in this business fare worse than coin tosses.

Apparently crystal balls aren't reliable.  Who knew?

:yes:

The "best 32" talent evaluators and developers get the majority of their "predictions" wrong. 

Of course we will too. 

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On 4/3/2018 at 11:50 PM, BassNBrew said:

I disagree.  If it was a guessing game, the FBG crowd would be right about half of the time.  They are consistently wrong about 80%+ in these types of threads.

That's because there was (and is) no real agreement as to what these types of threads mean. In my experience they almost always devolve into "bold predictions" threads regardless of whether the thread title calls for bold predictions or, oh, I don't know, "bet your house on it".

In the summer, remind me to set up a "90% / 50% / 10%" thread asking folks to provide one prediction they think has each likelihood, and let's see how those fare. If everything's a "coin toss" then you'd expect to see all three groups of predictions have the same hit rate - which I don't think will happen.

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13 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

In the summer, remind me to set up a "90% / 50% / 10%" thread asking folks to provide one prediction they think has each likelihood, and let's see how those fare. If everything's a "coin toss" then you'd expect to see all three groups of predictions have the same hit rate - which I don't think will happen.

I like this idea.

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14 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Yeah...these were supposed to be the sun comes up tomorrow predictions and 90% were wrong.

I don't think people really took it that way though. It seemed like it turned more into a bold prediction thread.

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30 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I don't think people really took it that way though. It seemed like it turned more into a bold prediction thread.

Agreed. Not many softball predictions. Most of the predictions I read were pretty bold and not very tied to probability.

I don't think anyone would be very interested in milk toast predictions such as Drew Brees throws for over 3000 yards this season if he is healthy for 14 or more games. 

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