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What are some 2016 trends that could repeat in 2017? (1 Viewer)

Mr. Irrelevant

IBL Representative
For my money, one of the best SP reads of last preseason was this thread (all credit to @zftcg), in which he and various other posters channelling Bill Barnwell - who in his Grantland days used to identify trends from the prior season and attempt to draw parallels to certain players/teams for the upcoming one.

With draft time approaching, I've carried over some of his analogues for 2017, then added a couple of new ones. Feel free to chime in with some of your own!

1. Second-year RB who blew up in the second half of his rookie year and is now a first-round pick
2015: CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill
2016: David Johnson
Potential 2017: Jordan Howard


After watching Johnson score his 3rd TD of the game on MNF last season, I joked in the game thread that "the lesson here is you should never take a RB in the first round based on a half-season of stud production as a rookie, except when you should." Howard was even more unheralded than Johnson coming into last year, yet, much like DJ in '15, finished RB5 over the second half of last season. Is Howard the next DJ or the next CJ? Call me stubborn, but I'm leaning the latter. A fifth-rounder with little pass-catching ability on a terrible team with an uncertain QB situation adds up to waaay too much risk for me at the 1-2 turn. 

2. Second-year QB primed to make the leap to elite fantasy production
2015: Blake Bortles
2016: Jameis Winston
Potential 2017: Carson Wentz


Football Outsiders ranked 93 WRs who received at least 50 targets in 2016. Seventy-five of them had a positive DYAR - in other words, "above replacement-level" players. You know how many of those 75 were Eagles? Zero. Zero! Their three primary wideouts ranked 76th, 81st, and 87th. Dorial Green-Beckham - who will most likely never play another down in the NFL - was their SECOND-LEADING WIDE RECEIVER. In Jeffery and Torrey Smith, Wentz finally gets a legit #1 option and a field-stretcher to man the outside; while a full season of Lane Johnson on the OL should help the run game keep down-and-distance reasonable (Wentz threw the second-most passes of any rookie QB ever). He's going off the board at QB18, but like Winston last year could easily finish the year as a QB1.
 
3. Teammate of QB from previous example who will come along for the ride
2015: Allen Robinson
2016: Mike Evans
Potential 2017: Alshon Jeffery


Alshon Jeffery, a physical freak who will be the Eagles' undisputed #1 option whenever he's healthy, can still be had for mid-range WR2 prices. Just saying.

4. Young WR so widely expected to "make the leap" that he winds up getting drafted close to his ceiling
2015: Charles Johnson
2016: DeVante Parker
Potential 2017: Tyreek Hill


I'm gonna get shade thrown my way on this, I know, but ask 2015-16 Blake Bortles owners: fantasy is a game of volume. You can be aggressively mediocre, but as long as you keep getting the ball in your hands, you can make fantasy owners happy. The Freak is a crazy athlete who scored 9 TDs on 85 touches last season - that's the good news. The bad news is such outlier stats almost always regress, so to justify him as a high-end WR2 you have to believe he's capable of handling #1 WR volume, while getting a defense's full attention, without getting that 5'10" frame dinged up. I think folks are falling prey to "shiny new toy" syndrome here; I'd be much happier with a name like Fitzgerald a full round later.

5. Regression of Top QB back to their prior two-year normal
2015: Andrew Luck
2016: Cam Newton
Potential 2017: Matt Ryan


This one's just too easy, isn't it? The average NFL QB had TD/INT ratios of 4.3% and 2.3% last season. Ryan's were 7.1% and 1.3%. That's, ummm ... that's not going to happen again.  The three QBs going ahead of him in drafts - A-Rod, Brady, Brees - have floors when healthy that are sky-high. Ryan's? Not so much. He should finish 2017 closer to his prior 3-year average of 24-25ppg than to 2016's absurd 30.4ppg.
 

6.  RB who had great success for a couple years then is dragged down by horrible coaching and crappy team rebounds to have a great season
2015: Doug Martin
2016: DeMarco Murray
Potential 2017: Carlos Hyde


Like Martin and Murray before him, Hyde has been written off for dead, yet comes into 2017 with a new coaching staff and competition only from a moderately-regarded 4th-rounder who hasn't set the world on fire in camp. He's an extremely talented runner who's also a decent receiver and blocker - NFL GMs may increasingly consider the position fungible, but that combination doesn't grow on trees. Yes, it's a high-risk gamble, as he clearly isn't the apple of Shanny and Lynch's eye, but the upside for the risk is much greater than with other RBs around his ADP.

(Ironically, the other very appropriate choice for this would be ... Doug Martin, once again. Ridiculous value at RB29.)

7. Last-round flier who backs into a top-30 season by accumulating targets on a bad team
2015: Kamar Aiken
2016: Rishard Matthews
Potential 2017: Marqise Lee


One of my (rare) 2016 hits - the only thing that surprised me about Matthews' WR19 performance in 2016 was how not-bad the Titans actually were. Speaking of 2016, Lee, despite his 1st-round pedigree, came in as the forgotten member of the Jags' offense - due to his injury history and, probably, to his name not being "Allen". Yet 2016 threw a wrench into the Allens :hophead:  - especially Hurns, who plunged to near the bottom of FO's advanced metrics. Some of that was bad QB play, you'd say, and you'd be right. Except Lee finished in the top 20 by those same metrics with that same QB, and led the team in yards per route run to boot. The Jags, of course, are the Brazil of the NFL: the team of the future, and always will be. But amidst this perpetual rebuilding effort, Lee could convert 120ish targets into 70-75 catches and 5-7 TDs, yielding immense value vs. his WR70 ADP.

8. Sleeper rookie receiver who all the sharps will be just a little early on in terms of fantasy usefulness
2014: John Brown
2015: Tyler Lockett
2016: Tyler Boyd
Potential 2017: O.J. Howard


I had Mike Williams penciled in here a month ago, but with his injury lingering I'm gong to cheat a bit and sub out "receiver" for last year's "WR". Of all the rookie pass-catchers, Howard sets off the biggest alarm bells for me. His size/speed combination is a rare one, but even before you consider the difficulty of rookie TEs' transition to the NFL and of his mysterious lack of college production, consider that the Bucs will likely come in right around league-average on pass attempts and of those, Howard's likely going to spend most of them a blocker, at which he excels and teammate Cameron Brate does not. Howard's ADP of TE13 makes him the single hardest pass of 2017 redrafts for me.

9. Young pedigreed WR who finally delivers on the "post-hype sleeper" tag
2015: Allen Robinson
2016: Davante Adams
Potential 2017: Josh Doctson


A big bounceback requires a blend of talent (derailed either by injury as with AR15, or mental lapses as with Adams) and situation (good / emerging QBs on teams that love to throw). Doctson checks both boxes as a first-round talent who should start the season at full strength alongside an above-average QB who lost his two top WRs to free agency and whose #1 this year is a relative question mark in Pryor.  There's no guarantee he'll recover all the athleticism that made him a first-rounder to begin with, but at WR64 even a small chance of that massive payoff is well worth the investment.

10. Veteran QB who can be had for $1 but could put up a top-10 season
2015: Carson Palmer
2016: Philip Rivers
Potential 2017: Andy Dalton


Dalton, like Rivers, is one of those guys whom I'm convinced gets underdrafted by dint of merely having been competent for a long time. No one's ever gonna pound the table and curse when you say his name in your draft or type "damn, nice get" into the draft room chat box. But he's more due for positive TD regression than any QB in the league, even before considering his new weapons in Ross, Mixon, and a healthy (for now!) Boyd and Eifert. Yes, the OL is still bad, but A.J. Green is still really, really good. He's going at a QB17 ADP and I expect I will own him just about everywhere.

 
Nice start.

I have been pretty much lined up against Howard most off-season but lately I have been coming around.  Despite the lack of supporting cast at the skill positions he has an above average offensive line and Glennon is a functional QB, plenty of RBs have done more with less. Howard is also probably a better pass catcher than what we saw last season.  Yes he led the league in drops for RBs but 1) he still caught 29 passes 2) had a 10.3 YPC (pretty ridiculous) and 3) he apparently had PRK surgery this offseason to improve his vision. I have heard about players doing the eye surgery thing in the past and it not really helping them (IIRC Troy Williamson went that route) but I think it is at least worth giving him the benefit of the doubt.  Last thing in Howard's favor is the lack of competition, he has job security.  The Bears simply don't have another RB who can fill his role. Kadeem Carey is hurt, I forget the other guy's name and while every one is all over Tarik Cohen's tip he is still a very small scat back (think Sproles) type and a rookie. I would bet your left nut that Fox would not give him a feature role even if Howard got hurt.

 
Disagree on Carson Wentz.

DYAR number can be viewed as a chicken-or-the-egg argument. Did they not have it because the WRs didn't have the ability or was it because Wentz was unable to consistently throw them open?  Also I think it's time to put away the notion that Torrey Smith is anything other than a straight line, kind of fastish WR with questionable hands.  He's Dontae Stallworth 2.0, okay maybe a little better than that.  But we really have no idea if Wentz is capable of hitting a guy like Smith 40+ yards downfield. While we know that once-upon-a-time Alshon proved that he can Beast, and maybe he will (playing for a contract and all...although wasn't he playing for a contract last season too?) but 2014 feels like a long time ago.

Here is a factoid about Wentz from Fantasy Football Index that stuck with me: "Among quarterbacks starting at least half the time, only Brock Osweiler averaged fewer yards per attempt." We like to remember the first four weeks from last season where Wentz took the NFL by storm but he actually struggled a ton as a rookie, I am not sure that I personally saw enough from him to think he will be the guy to take such a big leap this year.

Also Bortles benefited from being on a pretty horrible team and became the king of garbage time.  Phili looks to be better than the Jags at least and will have a lot more close games. Not saying he will flop, I just have trouble projecting him to take the bump to the 4,000+ yard, 30+ TD club.

I think the player who benefits most from Wentz's skill set is Nelson Aghlor playing out of the slot.

 
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Disgaree on a few, but it's a strong post. This is the trend I find most interesting:

Over the last several years, WR scoring has increased and RB scoring has decreased as the league has become more pass heavy. In 2015, WR scoring reached new highs and RB scoring reached new lows. It seemed to be the continuation of trends going on for over 5 years. Then 2016 things went haywire. RBs had their best scoring season in maybe a decade. WR scoring was way down. Despite that, the league continued to be pass heavy. That trend didn't change. So despite no uptick in rushing attempts, RB production shot up. This poses a few questions:

Is this a real RB renaissance or was last year an anomaly based on unsustainable rushing TD numbers?

Will we see WR scoring bounce back?

Has the passing game evolved to so many 3 WR sets and pass catching RBs that it will once again bring down the scoring for #1 WRs?

 
Disgaree on a few, but it's a strong post. This is the trend I find most interesting:

Over the last several years, WR scoring has increased and RB scoring has decreased as the league has become more pass heavy. In 2015, WR scoring reached new highs and RB scoring reached new lows. It seemed to be the continuation of trends going on for over 5 years. Then 2016 things went haywire. RBs had their best scoring season in maybe a decade. WR scoring was way down. Despite that, the league continued to be pass heavy. That trend didn't change. So despite no uptick in rushing attempts, RB production shot up. This poses a few questions:

Is this a real RB renaissance or was last year an anomaly based on unsustainable rushing TD numbers?

Will we see WR scoring bounce back?

Has the passing game evolved to so many 3 WR sets and pass catching RBs that it will once again bring down the scoring for #1 WRs?
Anomaly.  There are only a handful of super productive RBS.  Wrs have taken over but there are lots of em.

 
Nice start.

I have been pretty much lined up against Howard most off-season but lately I have been coming around.  Despite the lack of supporting cast at the skill positions he has an above average offensive line and Glennon is a functional QB, plenty of RBs have done more with less. Howard is also probably a better pass catcher than what we saw last season.  Yes he led the league in drops for RBs but 1) he still caught 29 passes 2) had a 10.3 YPC (pretty ridiculous) and 3) he apparently had PRK surgery this offseason to improve his vision. I have heard about players doing the eye surgery thing in the past and it not really helping them (IIRC Troy Williamson went that route) but I think it is at least worth giving him the benefit of the doubt.  Last thing in Howard's favor is the lack of competition, he has job security.  The Bears simply don't have another RB who can fill his role. Kadeem Carey is hurt, I forget the other guy's name and while every one is all over Tarik Cohen's tip he is still a very small scat back (think Sproles) type and a rookie. I would bet your left nut that Fox would not give him a feature role even if Howard got hurt.
I was reading the other day that OJ Howard had an issue with his vision, but not Jordan Howard.

Is this an issue with both players?

Jake Reed had a problem with tracking the ball that was vision related. He had surgery and there was a lot of physical therapy exercises that he did that helped train his eyes to track movement better.  It took a few years but this really helped Reed improve as a receiver to the point where I believe he had a 1000 yard season playing with Chris Carter. Reed's career was on the upswing. Then the Vikings drafted Randy Moss and Reed kind of became an after thought to Carter and Moss as would just about any WR. I think he could have continued to be a solid WR for several years if the Vikings hadn't drafted Moss.

Troy Williamson issues were different, but I think they did try some similar training with him that was successful with Reed. It just didn't help him.

 
I was reading the other day that OJ Howard had an issue with his vision, but not Jordan Howard.

Is this an issue with both players?

Jake Reed had a problem with tracking the ball that was vision related. He had surgery and there was a lot of physical therapy exercises that he did that helped train his eyes to track movement better.  It took a few years but this really helped Reed improve as a receiver to the point where I believe he had a 1000 yard season playing with Chris Carter. Reed's career was on the upswing. Then the Vikings drafted Randy Moss and Reed kind of became an after thought to Carter and Moss as would just about any WR. I think he could have continued to be a solid WR for several years if the Vikings hadn't drafted Moss.

Troy Williamson issues were different, but I think they did try some similar training with him that was successful with Reed. It just didn't help him.
I saw the news flash about J.Howard and PRK in the J.Howard thread...I don't think I have ever been in the OJ Howard thread unless it was by accident.

 
7. Last-round flier who backs into a top-30 season by accumulating targets on a bad team
2015: Kamar Aiken
2016: Rishard Matthews
Potential 2017: Marqise Lee


One of my (rare) 2016 hits - the only thing that surprised me about Matthews' WR19 performance in 2016 was how not-bad the Titans actually were. Speaking of 2016, Lee, despite his 1st-round pedigree, came in as the forgotten member of the Jags' offense - due to his injury history and, probably, to his name not being "Allen". Yet 2016 threw a wrench into the Allens :hophead:  - especially Hurns, who plunged to near the bottom of FO's advanced metrics. Some of that was bad QB play, you'd say, and you'd be right. Except Lee finished in the top 20 by those same metrics with that same QB, and led the team in yards per route run to boot. The Jags, of course, are the Brazil of the NFL: the team of the future, and always will be. But amidst this perpetual rebuilding effort, Lee could convert 120ish targets into 70-75 catches and 5-7 TDs, yielding immense value vs. his WR70 ADP.
Lee was a second round pick drafted before Allen Robinson who they took with a later 2nd round pick they had, we all know who turned out to b the better player (so far). That Lee was passed by Hurns as well just shows that Lee wasn't ready to play at the NFL level right away. Hurns was.

Maybe I am too down on Lee because of his slow development. The QB situation seems to be going from bad to maybe worse with their intent to start Henne. I don't know a lot of about the Jaguars, but Lee certainly fits the category of a player who could get a lot of targets on a bad team, I just think that Robinson and Hurns are stiffer competition for those targets than what Matthews had last year. I would expect Robinson to be the target hog here not Lee. Its just that people draft Robinson really high (most likely too high).

Matthews was cheap in fantasy last year and Tajae Sharpe was his only competition for targets at WR. This situation does not seem similar to Matthews or Aiken to me.

Appreciate the overall post although I disagree with some of the optimism for Wentz and Jeffrey in addition to point seven here.

 
I saw the news flash about J.Howard and PRK in the J.Howard thread...I don't think I have ever been in the OJ Howard thread unless it was by accident.
Ok I think the confusion was just on my part. Mixed up which Howard was being talked about.

 
Lee was a second round pick drafted before Allen Robinson who they took with a later 2nd round pick they had, we all know who turned out to b the better player (so far). That Lee was passed by Hurns as well just shows that Lee wasn't ready to play at the NFL level right away. Hurns was.

Maybe I am too down on Lee because of his slow development. The QB situation seems to be going from bad to maybe worse with their intent to start Henne. I don't know a lot of about the Jaguars, but Lee certainly fits the category of a player who could get a lot of targets on a bad team, I just think that Robinson and Hurns are stiffer competition for those targets than what Matthews had last year. I would expect Robinson to be the target hog here not Lee. Its just that people draft Robinson really high (most likely too high).

Matthews was cheap in fantasy last year and Tajae Sharpe was his only competition for targets at WR. This situation does not seem similar to Matthews or Aiken to me.

Appreciate the overall post although I disagree with some of the optimism for Wentz and Jeffrey in addition to point seven here.
To be fair Marquis Lee was the best WR on the Jags last season by pretty much every measure.  He crushed Hurns production and surpassed Robinson on 50 fewer targets.  The book is not closed on who is better between Lee & Robinson.

 
For my money, one of the best SP reads of last preseason was this thread (all credit to @zftcg), in which he and various other posters channelling Bill Barnwell - who in his Grantland days used to identify trends from the prior season and attempt to draw parallels to certain players/teams for the upcoming one.
Awww, thanks! Stuck at work right now, but I'll chime in with my own thoughts over the next couple days. Clearly we need to get the clairvoyant who was pimping Matt Ryan at the beginning of last year (I think it was @TheDirtyWord) to come back and give us his picks.

 
Disgaree on a few, but it's a strong post. This is the trend I find most interesting:

Over the last several years, WR scoring has increased and RB scoring has decreased as the league has become more pass heavy. In 2015, WR scoring reached new highs and RB scoring reached new lows. It seemed to be the continuation of trends going on for over 5 years. Then 2016 things went haywire. RBs had their best scoring season in maybe a decade. WR scoring was way down. Despite that, the league continued to be pass heavy. That trend didn't change. So despite no uptick in rushing attempts, RB production shot up. This poses a few questions:

Is this a real RB renaissance or was last year an anomaly based on unsustainable rushing TD numbers?

Will we see WR scoring bounce back?

Has the passing game evolved to so many 3 WR sets and pass catching RBs that it will once again bring down the scoring for #1 WRs?
I think this is the ticket.  There are a couple more reasons for this as I see it.

Most of the stud #1 WR's have been paired up with some pretty good talent last year and more so this year.  Brown has Bryant and Bell to deal with, OBJ now has B. Marshall, Julio has Sanu and Gabriel, Evans now has D. Jackson.  I think these additions bring down the share of the pie that the #1 WR gets.  There are some offenses were the #1 still gets enough to justify FF stud but they are getting fewer and it brings the top guys value down to just a few points per game above the next tiers.  

Defenses adjusted.  If you every one is getting burned by the passing and its mostly to one guy then double that guy and shut them down.  Easier said than done with the top guys, but it doesn't take much to close the gap on the tiers.  

I thing this trend continues and we see the top WR's still put up decent years but they wont approach the value of the top RB's in non-ppr.  In ppr, the backs that catch 30 or more passes will likely out produce all but a couple of the top WR's.

 
Awww, thanks! Stuck at work right now, but I'll chime in with my own thoughts over the next couple days. Clearly we need to get the clairvoyant who was pimping Matt Ryan at the beginning of last year (I think it was @TheDirtyWord) to come back and give us his picks.
Can't claim credit...I was down on Ryan this time last year, or at least not on his FF bandwagon.  Thx for the mention tho.

 

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