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Dynasty & Redraft: TE George Kittle, 49ers


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George Kittle is listed as the staring tight end for Week 1 against the Panthers.

The 49ers moved Vance McDonald to the Steelers last month, and now Kittle will reportedly "get a lot of snaps this year." The hype train has been rolling for the Iowa product since July and there should be some receiving targets to go around behind wideout Pierre Garcon. Kittle will be tough to start in fantasy out of the gate, but owners in deeper leagues may want to give him a look.

Source: Matt Barrows on Twitter 

Sep 5 - 6:43 PM

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9 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Agreed.

In fact I think it is remarkable how well the rookies from Iowa are doing so far earning NFL roster spots and in some cases starting jobs. They had a really good team the past few years.

Turns out that the "Fake ID" of college football actually had some good players on that 12-0 team.  Cowherd is such a tool.

Iowa may never contend for a championship when other school can recruit the way they do but they have always been very good and getting hard working players and turning them into pro caliber players.  I'll never understand how anyone could complain about what Ferentz gets paid, the man has earned it.

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49ers' George Kittle: Dominates tight end targets

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Kittle (hamstring) hauled in five of the six balls thrown his way for 27 yards in Sunday's loss to the Panthers.

Kittle was a game-time decision after suffering a hamstring injury in practice this week. The 23-year-old was able to start, and he ended up being the only tight end involved in the passing game. While he didn't produce much fantasy-wise, Kittle's heavy usage bodes well for his future value, especially considering his 6-foot-4 frame is the largest red zone target Brian Hoyer has at his disposal. Consider the rookie a TE2 or deep-league option with upside going forward.

 

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49ers injury report: George Kittle remains on the list, like last week

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The 49ers listed Kittle as limited all last week, and then questionable heading into the game. However, he played in 95 percent of the offensive snaps, and finished with five receptions for 27 yards. Shanahan said late in the week he expected Kittle to play, and it would seem like that will continue into Week 2. Hamstrings can be tricky, so it makes sense not to push it too hard during practice.

 

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While it is usually true that it takes time for TE to develop and get much playing time, Kittle played on 95% of the offensive snaps, the next highest TE was Celek with 25%

The fullback did play 33% of the 49ers offensive snaps, but Kittle was in on 95% so I don't see being a rookie holding him back from playing time.

For context Evan Engram played on 82% of the offensive snaps, David Njoku played on 44% of the Browns offensive snaps, Gerald Everett played on 45% of the Rams snaps. We don't know yet how many OJ Howard will play.

Edited by Biabreakable
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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

While it is usually true that it takes time for TE to develop and get much playing time, Kittle played on 95% of the offensive snaps, the next highest TE was Celek with 25%

The fullback did play 33% of the 49ers offensive snaps, but Kittle was in on 95% so I don't see being a rookie holding him back from playing time.

For context Evan Engram played on 82% of the offensive snaps, David Njoku played on 44% of the Browns offensive snaps, Gerald Everett played on 45% of the Rams snaps. We don't know yet how many OJ Howard will play.

 

i know. this is why i'm contemplating picking him up today in a 3-yr contract league before rosters lock for blind bidding.

i think his play time in week 1 indicates we could be looking at a special rookie TE season. only a handful of tight ends have come in and been nice starts in FF year 1, but it's happened and i don't think it's out of the question for kittle to do 800 and 6. which would put him right on the cusp of top 5...

i'd be cutting jonathan williams signed for cheap thru 2020 to do it, and i'd only have kittle's restricted free agent rights next offseason but i'm worried that if i leave him out there this sunday, he'll turn those 5 catches into quite a bit more than 27 yards and i'll have to pay a premium to get him on the waivers...

similar to what happened to cohen last week...

hmmmmm.... 

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Yeah that is a tough choice as Williams is a nice player as well. 

I can't really explain why Buffalo released him. He looked good in the first week of the preseason. Yet they kept Joe Banyard over him. Banyard is a capable player I guess but I don't think he is particularly special player. Now Williams is buried with the Broncos who have some good RB who I think are all better than Banyard, and therefore maybe better than Williams. I kind of think Williams is better than that, but Buffalo didn't so maybe myself and others are wrong about that.

At this point in time it seems like Williams might be safer on the wire than Kittle though.

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4 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Yeah that is a tough choice as Williams is a nice player as well. 

I can't really explain why Buffalo released him. He looked good in the first week of the preseason. Yet they kept Joe Banyard over him. Banyard is a capable player I guess but I don't think he is particularly special player. Now Williams is buried with the Broncos who have some good RB who I think are all better than Banyard, and therefore maybe better than Williams. I kind of think Williams is better than that, but Buffalo didn't so maybe myself and others are wrong about that.

At this point in time it seems like Williams might be safer on the wire than Kittle though.

 

yeah just made the move. i think there's a good chance kittle is on a lot more people's radars after sunday... i had the same feeling about hunter henry last year.

i believed in williams' talent too but seeing langford and CJ0k get active roster spots over williams AFTER he passed through waivers is enough for me. it's just too many teams saying "he's not better than what we have" for me to hold out too much hope...

i doubt anyone grabs williams on waivers this week and if he sniffs the active roster in a few weeks, i can always grab him back...

anyway, i'm all aboard the kittle choo choo train!!

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Quote

Kittle caught both his targets for 13 yards Week 2 against the Seahawks.

It is a step back after Kittle was targeted six times in the season opener. Averaging just 5.7 yards per catch for a bad passing attack, the rookie is not a fantasy option at this point.

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Anyone had a chance to watch the 49ers much, and thus develop a strong opinion of Kittle?

I like what I hear, and I am impressed by some of the highlights.  I like the situation.

In a league where the scoring system is favorable to tight ends, I'm leaning toward starting Kittle over Hunter Henry and Martavis Bryant, so I want someone to say - Do it, Kittle is AMAZING!  And, I want you to be right when you say it.  However, if you say something somewhat opposite, that's fine, just be right.  

Who has a crystal ball or a really informed opinion?

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17 hours ago, Flint Fireballs! said:

Anyone had a chance to watch the 49ers much, and thus develop a strong opinion of Kittle?

I like what I hear, and I am impressed by some of the highlights.  I like the situation.

In a league where the scoring system is favorable to tight ends, I'm leaning toward starting Kittle over Hunter Henry and Martavis Bryant, so I want someone to say - Do it, Kittle is AMAZING!  And, I want you to be right when you say it.  However, if you say something somewhat opposite, that's fine, just be right.  

Who has a crystal ball or a really informed opinion?

I haven't watched any 49ers games yet this year, so I can't offer any help there.

Kittle is a player who has interested me quite a bit this year though. I did post about his snap counts in SSNDs thread here in regards to his playing time.

Quote

Kittle had a drop in playing time week 3 his snap counts so far:

WK 1 95%

WK 2 88%

WK 3 48%

WK 4 89%

WK 5 56%

Just cross referencing the other players who played more in week 3 and week 5 I see that Kyle Jusczyk played 49% of the snaps in week 5 which is an increase from the previous high of 35% in week two. This coincides with Matt Brieda having more snaps in week 5 as well.

Was Brieda used with a FB in front of him more than they have been using a FB with Carlos Hyde?

Looking at the game logs I see Celek played 44% of the snaps week 5 this fits Kittles 56% perfectly not sure how often both were on the field at the same time? In week 4 Celek only played on 25% of the snaps, Week 3 Celek played on 44% of the snaps so that does explain somewhat the two weeks where Kittle played less, Celek played more although not more than Kittle did.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Has anyone been able to successfully solve the riddle of why Kittle's playing time is so erratic? To add to the snap % mentioned above, his week 6 was 92% and week 7 was 47%. It seems that about every other week he alternates between playing all the snaps or half the snaps.

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  • 4 weeks later...
34 minutes ago, flapgreen said:

Was dropped in dynasty and I picked him up. Hoping for something next year 

Nice grab. He'll be at a minimum a top TE2 next year with upside to crack into mid-tier TE1 territory. 

As far as the ROS, I'm expecting nothing. Maybe they bring him back end of year to establish chemistry with Jimmy G? 

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2 hours ago, tombonneau said:

Nice grab. He'll be at a minimum a top TE2 next year with upside to crack into mid-tier TE1 territory. 

As far as the ROS, I'm expecting nothing. Maybe they bring him back end of year to establish chemistry with Jimmy G? 

Well that sounds good to me then. Was shocked he got dropped but figured there was something I didn't know about. 

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3 hours ago, flapgreen said:

Was dropped in dynasty and I picked him up. Hoping for something next year 

Pick ups like this are huge for building your team. The team traded a TE they paid big money to just a year earlier so they could play this guy. Now they traded for a great QB. He could be a TE1 next year out of nowhere.......

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2 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Pick ups like this are huge for building your team. The team traded a TE they paid big money to just a year earlier so they could play this guy. Now they traded for a great QB. He could be a TE1 next year out of nowhere.......

We I'm in a big rebuild and just took over the team this year. I hope he does turn out. 

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i was down to witten as my te in dyno, so i went big in the draft and fa for tight ends.

 

1.14 oj howard

3.10 jake butt

3.14 kittle

f.a. tyler kroft

f.a jonnu smith (since dropped, but he is still on the wire)

 

now, i have 4 replacements primed for the future.

i would like to boil it down to 2 tes by 2020 and am waiting for things to shake out.

i would also like to maximize value by trading to move up in the draft.

who do i keep? and who do i trade?

:popcorn:

Edited by grateful zed
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(Rotoworld) 49ers TE George Kittle (ankle) has been removed from the Week 12 injury report.

Analysis: Kittle will be out after missing Week 10 and healing up during the Week 11 bye. Kittle's snaps and targets were being scaled back even before the injury. There isn't a 49ers tight end worth considering in fantasy leagues, but Garrett Celek probably has a slight leg up as the pass catcher right now.

Edited by grateful zed
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2 hours ago, djmich said:

What do you guys think about dropping Jonnu Smith for him.  I like Smith but I don't like the idea of sitting on him until Delanie moves on...maybe in 2019?  10 team league so there tend to be decent TE's on the WW

 

Rookie TE are not usually reliable starters. If you have good options on the wire might consider one of those over either of these rookies.

In the long run I like Smith more than Kittle, but its really close I think. Kittle has less competition for opportunity than Smith does at this point in time.

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  • 1 month later...
  • 4 weeks later...
  • 5 months later...

I have to see how he performs in the preseason and how they plan to use him before I go all in but he is near the top of my break out list this year. The TE landscape is barren and if he hits he could be so valuable for years. Of course I have been chasing this TE ghost for years now...….it's because when you get a Gronk or a Jimmy level player in his prime you can build a dynasty team around them. 

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7 hours ago, Milkman said:

I have to see how he performs in the preseason and how they plan to use him before I go all in but he is near the top of my break out list this year. The TE landscape is barren and if he hits he could be so valuable for years. Of course I have been chasing this TE ghost for years now...….it's because when you get a Gronk or a Jimmy level player in his prime you can build a dynasty team around them. dominate your dynasty league.

fixed it.

JK yeah I'm ok to have him as my TE1 in some redrafts.  He was cheap to pick up last year, now he is a bit more.  I turned him inseason for McKinnon last season in one league, which was cool. I think.  I think he has a good chance as anyone, maybe better, to finish as a mid/high TE1, amongst those who *could* fall between ~TE4 - TE17.  Such a crapshoot from year to year.  I'd love to see him break out a bit.  He is going early enough that I am surprised there isn't more talk of him on this board, but he is a TE, so meh unless he is named Gronk.  I won a couple ships last year with Ertz but I got him for cheap last year.  Graham could be huge this year, especially after reading about the CB matchups Adams is going to have.  But after that?  Engram I guess, but Barkley and ODB might dominate touches.  Anyway, yeah I like the SF offense and Kittle seems poised to break out.  Solid rookie season.

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I’m in on Kittle but still staying slightly cautious. I want pieces of the San Francisco passing game and he really has a chance to build on what was a very successful rookie year.

My first concern is that they seem to also like Celek a lot and I could see them having a bit of a committee situation in the red zone. Not sure, but if that happens Kittle’s TD upside could be lowered slightly. The other thing that gives me pause is how often he was dinged up last year. That’s probably the nature of the position but I feel like I’d want a solid backup plan/second TE if I’m looking to rely on Kittle.

Those are minor concerns really though - he has as much chance to break out as anyone and given the TE landscape, that has value. A top 5-10 season wouldn’t surprise me at all. I’m a little higher on Trey Burton in both dynasty and redraft but I think targeting one of those two TEs at good value makes a lot of sense.

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Don’t think we have seen enough of him and SF’s current system to pull the trigger where he is currently going. Think his floor/ceiling are way too variable right now. Maybe that would clear up a bit in preseason. But I am excited about SF in general just don’t know I want to hang my FF season on any of their parts. 

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1 hour ago, Elevencents said:

Don’t think we have seen enough of him and SF’s current system to pull the trigger where he is currently going. Think his floor/ceiling are way too variable right now. Maybe that would clear up a bit in preseason. But I am excited about SF in general just don’t know I want to hang my FF season on any of their parts. 

Where are you seeing him go?

According to this ADP Kittle is being drafted at 128 or round 11 in a 12 team league. He is the 10th TE selected.

Now Hunter Henry is still being drafted in this sample at 107 so you likely should anticipate that Kittle might be drafted as high as that, in the 9th round as the 10th TE selected.

According to this ADP Kittle is being drafted 121 or round 11 in a 12 team league. He is the 12th TE selected. 

This ADP seems more recent to me. Makes a bit more sense than the MFL ADP.

The TE being selected after Kittle are Njoku and OJ Howard who I would likely take before him because I think they are better players, but any of these 3 are players who I would like to have on my team.

As a rookie Kittle was TE 19 last season. In 15 games with 7 starts he had 63 targets 43 receptions 515 yards 12 ypr 2 TD 68% catch rate.

These are not bad numbers for a rookie TE and if he can improve slightly with a better catch rate for example, as well as gets more targets, he could finish higher than TE 19 which is perhaps what to consider as his floor numbers or worth.

In the 5 games with Garoppolo KIttle had 19 targets 15 receptions 324 yards in those last 5 games. The last 3 games being pretty solid, so showing him growing in the offense.

He generated 62% of his yards with Garapolo in these last 5 games, although he did break out in game 5 of the season against the Colts with 9 targets 7 receptions 83 yards and a TD. That game was followed by 8 targets 4 receptions 46 yards against Washington. This was 88% of Kittles total yards from these two games and the last 5 weeks of the season. He missed game 10 and he pretty much disappeared (was hurt) from games 7-12 the 49ers did play a difficult stretch of defenses over this time frame as well perhaps contributing to that also.

If I extrapolate the 5 games of Kittles production with Garoppolo to a 16 game season it would be 61 targets 48 receptions (79% catch rate) 1037 yards 3 TD

The yards are so high because Kittle averaged 21.6 yards per reception from Garoppolo. Now that is not likely sustainable, but the big play ability is there and Garoppolo knows how to find him. This is a terrific number showing Kittles speed is translating and that he has big play ability. The catch rate is well above average as well, showing that there is going to be some consistency of these two connecting.

I think Kittle could have 80 targets this season, which would be a slight increase to 5 targets per game instead of the 4.2 targets per game he had as a rookie. The upside would be 100 targets and downside 60 targets (about what he did last year).

80 targets at 73% catch rate would be 58 receptions at 12 ypr is 701 yards 3 TD 88 points in standard scoring leagues or 146 in PPR leagues. These points would have finished as TE 12 using the average points scored of the last 3 years

So I think he is worth the price at around pick 120 where current ADP shows him to be. I don't think I would take him over Njoku though. Howard is a tougher call for me as Brate is still there in his way. Kittle is in a better situation to be their most targeted TE as he was last season.

Edited by Biabreakable
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20 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Players going after Kittle that I'd rather have at their ADP (Kittle's ADP is 10.03 per FF Calculator)

 

David Njoku 12.12

Ben Watson 14.03

Vance McDonald 14.03

ASJ 14.04

 

 

Ben Watson? The guy is like 40 and the saints have a lot of weapons. The Browns have a lot of weapons and questions at qb as well. Now, in dynasty I'd take Njoku but in redraft he's still a project imo. ASJ has been awful everywhere he's been. McDonald has some upside for sure but he's been in the league for a lot of years and not hit it so I'd pass on him as well. I can't see taking any of these over Kittle, He's got a crazy athletic profile, had a good rookie season and the wrs on the 49ers are bottom of the barrel so he should get the targets.

Edited by voiceofunreason
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I'm a Hawkeye fan and a couple small things: 1-people do not understand just how good an athlete this guy is.  He set a bunch of athletic records at Iowa.  He is right there with Njoku.  2-injuries have held him back.  I will expect 12-14 games from him each year so that is a definite drawback.  3-as a person people love the guy.  I'd expect jg and he to develop a friendship as people just like him.  It can't hurt.  4-he is an excellent excellent blocker.  He will be in on all goal line snaps regardless.

 

nothing important or earth shattering but always good to know more about players

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Well I remember reading last year that Iowa runs a pro style offense and that Kittle would have a leg up on typical TE rookies in terms of system and scheme understanding.  Also that he is possibly elite after the catch.  And that he was extremely athletic. 

In my MFL10 teams (20 of them now), he is going closer to the 9th round. I like ASJ about as much and might go so far as to say I like him more than Kittle, but why not target both?  Just because one is cheaper doesn't mean I can't have both.  I like Kittle in the 9th (depending on how my draft has gone), *and* I like those other ones listed above.  If I don't take an early TE, grabbing a couple of these guys from rounds 8-14 isn't so bad. I suppose another question would be do you like him more than other non-TEs at that spot?

Redraft:

Kittle vs :

Benjamin ???

Montgomery ???

Jamaal Williams ???

Hines ???

Crowell ???

Big Ben ???

Garrapolo ???

 

Edited by barackdhouse
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6 hours ago, RustyFA4 said:

I'm a Hawkeye fan and a couple small things: 1-people do not understand just how good an athlete this guy is.  He set a bunch of athletic records at Iowa.  He is right there with Njoku.  2-injuries have held him back.  I will expect 12-14 games from him each year so that is a definite drawback.  3-as a person people love the guy.  I'd expect jg and he to develop a friendship as people just like him.  It can't hurt.  4-he is an excellent excellent blocker.  He will be in on all goal line snaps regardless.

 

nothing important or earth shattering but always good to know more about players

Hawkeye fan here as well. Another thing is that he was a body catcher coming out and that resulted in several dropped balls last season. He has been working really hard to catch the ball away from his body during the offseason. I read somewhere recently that he has been down in Nashville working with C.J. Beathard and Trent Taylor. Also the TE coach put in a fine this offseason for the TE's when they didn't catch the ball away from their body. 

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