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TE George Kittle, SF - 10/9/21 - Placed On IR


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3 hours ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

I would. He's usually my target in the third.

I like Kittle over Ertz.  Here's some relevant data on each from a great JJ Zachariason article that is worth your time overall.

 

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/27360/zachariason-15-bold-predictions-for-the-2019-fantasy-football-season

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Kittle's in an interesting spot regression-wise. His yards after the catch rate was otherworldly last season, making it difficult to repeat, but he also scored just five times despite breaking the single-season record for receiving yards by a tight end. Based on the receiving-yards-to-receiving-touchdowns rate for tight ends since 2011, Kittle should've had closer to 10 scores.

So why won't he live up to his average cost this year? Admittedly, he's my favorite early-round tight end given price. But he did have a slightly lower target share when Jimmy Garoppolo was under center last year, and there's more competition for targets in the 49ers' offense in 2019.

And speaking of target competition, that's a big reason to fade Zach Ertz. When Golden Tate played more than 40% of the Eagles' snaps last season, Ertz's target share dropped by over seven percentage points versus his pre-Tate rate. With Dallas Goedert an extra year in, the addition of DeSean Jackson, and a potential run-heavier offense, Ertz probably won't come close to his production totals from last year.

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
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George Kittle collected 8-of-10 targets for 54 yards in the 49ers' Week 1 win over the Bucs.

Kittle held his own even In a day that saw the Niners' offense crumble, getting seven more targets than the next closest receiver. Although his receiving line should've included two touchdowns, both would-be scores were ultimately negated due to offensive penalties. Any question marks surrounding San Francisco's receiving corps remains a plus for the third-year tight end as he continues to demolish any matchup on the field. He'll stay a top-two option at his position against the Bengals next week.

Sep 8, 2019, 10:42 PM ET

 

 

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George Kittle caught three passes for 54 yards in Week 2 against the Bengals.

Kittle took a backseat to Deebo Samuel, who shined in a feature role. His three targets were gameflow based, with the 49ers running 42 times. Kittle's role is secure, but Samuel's emergence is a threat to his ROS outlook. He'll remain a top-five tight end play against the Steelers in Week 3.

 

Edited by The Frankman
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Can’t imagine he’s going to come close to last year’s numbers. Last year, he was the only bona fide receiving option for the fill in QBs, but now Garappolo doesn’t need to force feed him.

Also have to wonder if he’ll be asked to block more with the Staley injury. 

Edited by zamboni
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He had two touchdown catches called back for penalty week 1, and they were on different drives on infractions away from the ball.  This week, other guys scored.  It happens.  Kittle has looked good when he's touched the ball and could easily be top 3 at the position right now just with those two catches, and the offense looked really good this week after some rust play from Jimmy g during the off season. You guys panic too easily. 

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11 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

He had two touchdown catches called back for penalty week 1, and they were on different drives on infractions away from the ball.  This week, other guys scored.  It happens.  Kittle has looked good when he's touched the ball and could easily be top 3 at the position right now just with those two catches, and the offense looked really good this week after some rust play from Jimmy g during the off season. You guys panic too easily. 

I don’t think anyone is saying his stats will fall off the cliff, just that he may drop off noticeably because there seem to be other options unlike last year. 

Edited by zamboni
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So seems like there is some concern here.  My biggest concern, and admittedly it's a small sample size, is Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm.  The two have now played together for six games over the past two seasons:

  • With Jimmy G (6 games):  Kittle averaging 4.8 catches, 59 yards, 0 TD's on 6.8 targets for 11.7ppg
  • Without Jimmy G (13 games): Averaging 5.8 catches, 91 yards, 0.4 TD's on 8.9 (!!) targets for 17.3ppg

Love the talent, don't love the situation.  Talk me off the ledge.  You hold out hope based upon his high usage and production last season, but also need to recognize that it was a perfect storm of a bunch of inexperienced QB's leaning on him with no proven WR's to target.  Granted, they still don't have world beaters at WR but Samuel is decent, Pettis has a year under his belt, Goodwin is an ok field stretching WR3 and is currently healthy, and they'll be adding Hurd to the mix soon too.   What's everyone doing?

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3 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

So seems like there is some concern here.  My biggest concern, and admittedly it's a small sample size, is Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm.  The two have now played together for six games over the past two seasons:

  • With Jimmy G (6 games):  Kittle averaging 4.8 catches, 59 yards, 0 TD's on 6.8 targets for 11.7ppg
  • Without Jimmy G (13 games): Averaging 5.8 catches, 91 yards, 0.4 TD's on 8.9 (!!) targets for 17.3ppg

Love the talent, don't love the situation.  Talk me off the ledge.  You hold out hope based upon his high usage and production last season, but also need to recognize that it was a perfect storm of a bunch of inexperienced QB's leaning on him with no proven WR's to target.  Granted, they still don't have world beaters at WR but Samuel is decent, Pettis has a year under his belt, Goodwin is an ok field stretching WR3 and is currently healthy, and they'll be adding Hurd to the mix soon too.   What's everyone doing?

In the leagues where I own Kittle I also have Waller. So I'm trying to sell. I'm in no hurry. I'm willing to wait because not a lot of people seem interested even in a package.

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6 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

So seems like there is some concern here.  My biggest concern, and admittedly it's a small sample size, is Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm.  The two have now played together for six games over the past two seasons:

  • With Jimmy G (6 games):  Kittle averaging 4.8 catches, 59 yards, 0 TD's on 6.8 targets for 11.7ppg
  • Without Jimmy G (13 games): Averaging 5.8 catches, 91 yards, 0.4 TD's on 8.9 (!!) targets for 17.3ppg

Love the talent, don't love the situation.  Talk me off the ledge.  You hold out hope based upon his high usage and production last season, but also need to recognize that it was a perfect storm of a bunch of inexperienced QB's leaning on him with no proven WR's to target.  Granted, they still don't have world beaters at WR but Samuel is decent, Pettis has a year under his belt, Goodwin is an ok field stretching WR3 and is currently healthy, and they'll be adding Hurd to the mix soon too.   What's everyone doing?

Makes sense

i have to start him every week, what better choice do I have?

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4 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

You hold out hope based upon his high usage and production last season, but also need to recognize that it was a perfect storm of a bunch of inexperienced QB's leaning on him with no proven WR's to target.  

This (at least so far) has turned out to be a bigger factor than I thought. I figured Jimmy G would continue to trend of peppering Kittle with targets, but he's done a good job of spreading the ball around to the improved WRs - great for the team, but not great for fantasy. 

The other factor that concerns me is the Staley injury and the need for Kittle to block more on passing downs. Also great for NFL purposes but not good for fantasy is that Kittle is a plus blocker.

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9 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Makes sense

i have to start him every week, what better choice do I have?

Agreed.  I’m in the same boat.  So he jumped from essentially a nobody in dynasty rankings last preseason to borderline TE1 this offseason.  Maybe I’m wondering if it makes sense to cash out now when he has (elevated) top 2 dynasty TE value if the root cause of mediocre production may be a QB thats not likely going anywhere for a at least a few years?  If Kittle continues to put up less than 12ppg, he’s really no more valuable than 5-10 other TEs that fall well below Kelce level production.  

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SF Targets 2019

  1. Kittle 21 with 17 catches 165 yds 0 TDs
  2. D. Samuel 14 with 11, 148 yds & 1 TD
  3. R. James 8, 4, 68 yds & 1 TD

many others involved so it is a small pie being split into a lot of pieces. Kittle is just not getting the targets yet and has had few big gainers.

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George Kittle caught 6-of-8 targets for 70 yards and one touchdown in the 49ers' Week 5 win over the Browns.

Kittle hadn't scored a touchdown yet this season prior to tonight and totaled yardage counts of 54 > 54 > 57 prior to the Week 4 bye. It was a much needed slump-busting night for Kittle, who led the team in targets and receiving on a night the Niners ran the ball with ease and rode that along with their defense to a 28-point win. Kittle was long overdue, and the scores should start rolling in now. He'll be a top-three TE1 play next week against the Rams in L.A.

 

Edited by The Frankman
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He's fun to watch - really good all around player.

And with the surrounding WRs not stepping up and/or dropping passes, perhaps Jimmy G continues to pepper him with targets and raise his fantasy stats closer to where we expected them. The downside is that the team is obviously better this year, resulting in positive game scripts that, thus far, haven't forced a lot of passing.

Edited by zamboni
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25 minutes ago, zamboni said:

He's fun to watch - really good all around player.

And with the surrounding WRs not stepping up and/or dropping passes, perhaps Jimmy G continues to pepper him with targets and raise his fantasy stats closer to where we expected them. The downside is that the team is obviously better this year, resulting in positive game scripts that, thus far, haven't forced a lot of passing.

Hes a star. The game scripts will change. They've played 4 horrible teams.

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George Kittle (groin) is questionable for the 49ers' Week 6 matchup against the Rams.

Kittle was a late-week addition to the injury report after being limited Friday with a groin injury. He's shaping up as a true game-time decision for the 49ers' massive matchup against the Rams. Ross Dwelley and Levine Toilolo would likely soak up most of the 49ers' TE reps if Kittle is ultimately sidelined, but don't assume either would be nearly as involved in the offense. Kittle's absence would likely mean more of an uptick in target share for the team's RBs and WRs than the backup TEs.

SOURCE: Matt Maiocco on Twitter.

Oct 11, 2019, 4:31 PM ET

 

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Coach Kyle Shanahan expects George Kittle (groin, questionable) to play Sunday against the Rams.

Kittle wasn't listed on the injury report until Friday, when he was limited in practice with a groin injury. He's officially questionable, but apparently should be good to go. Reduced reps are a possibility here, although fantasy owners should still fire up Kittle in season-long leagues of all shapes and sizes. Ross Dwelley and Levine Toilolo would likely soak up most of the 49ers' TE reps if Kittle is ultimately sidelined, but don't assume either would be nearly as involved in the offense.

SOURCE: Matt Maiocco on Twitter.

Oct 11, 2019, 4:34 PM ET

 

 

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ESPN's Adam Schefter reports there's some concern George Kittle (groin) won't be able to "finish the game" in Week 6 against the Rams.

It's legitimately a worst-case scenario as Kittle's fully expected to play against the Rams but there's still "concern" about whether he'll play all the way through. It's not music to the ears, but Kittle at 70 percent (with tempered expectations) is still worth rolling the dice on given the landscape at his position. Gerald Everett is a suitable flier if still looking to stream, but the fact of the matter is Kittle's a Top 5 TE for Week 6.

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Oct 13, 2019, 1:48 AM ET

 

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23 minutes ago, RushHour said:

Gotta wonder why he’s even playing it that’s the case.

First thing that went through my mind. Won't he just risk making it worse? They just had their bye the week before last, too, so that could be weeks missed.

Edited by rockaction
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  • Joe Bryant changed the title to TE George Kittle, SF - 10/9/21 - Placed On IR

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