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Fanduel Week 2 (1 Viewer)

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
Seems like the tone of the week 1 thread is not a ton of us had success, so let's forget that and get on to week 2.  I saw that the contests/pricing were up, so let the discussion begin!

 
One thing that really stuck out was Rivers' pricing.  He is below Bortles for the week!.  If I remember correctly, I think Miami was a pretty bad pass D last year, so that might be a place to start for a cash QB.

Tough matchups for the top Rbs.  How highly owned is Hunt going to be?

 
Gpp team first look

rivers 7000

zeke 8700

bell 9000

allen 7100

parker 6400

martavis 6200

graham 6300

walsh 4600

Ravens 4700

kyle Rudolph stands out at 5500, but I had $$ left over and think the hawks get right at home. martavis and bell may have low ownership this week. bal hosting Cleveland seems like a solid defensive pick. 

 
Gpp team first look

rivers 7000

zeke 8700

bell 9000

allen 7100

parker 6400

martavis 6200

graham 6300

walsh 4600

Ravens 4700

kyle Rudolph stands out at 5500, but I had $$ left over and think the hawks get right at home. martavis and bell may have low ownership this week. bal hosting Cleveland seems like a solid defensive pick. 
Nice.  Looking at the injuries and some of the matchups for the top guys, I am looking long and hard at the cheap Rb options this week for gpps. 

K.Willimas, A.Peterson or Ingram, J.White, Cohen, Montgomery, and Allen are all sub 6500, and most have good looking matchups. 

I put in as a fun placeholder:  Rodgers - White/Allen - Julio/Evans/Nelson - Henry - Walsh - KC

 
Snorkelson said:
Parker is going to be chalk play of the week at 6400.
generally speaking isnt the chargers secondary fairly highly regarded, at least at the corners.  I am eyeing Julius Thomas here.

 
two big point total games:  

  • NEP @ NOS O/U 54
  • GBP @ ATL O/U 53.5
NE, OAK, SEA, ATL all with implied totals of 28+.

Week 2 we saw a bunch of games go under.  Does that continue in W2?  

 
My first go.. 

Brady - big rebound vs Saints? 

Hunt

Lynch - game flow vs Jets

Cooks - pissed brady + former team

Evans 

Kupp 

J. Thomas - Cutlers safety net 

Walsh

Jags D - I want KC here ideally.  

 
My current gpp place holder ( subject to change 100's of times before Sun)

Winston Gordon Hunt Evans Cooks Thielen Rudolph Walsh KC

 
Not sure if it helps much this week looking at the matchups, but I was just curious about week 1 pts allowed vs. pts allowed for the last 1/3 or so of the 2016 season.  I was just trying to get an idea if there are some Ds who were bad last year, that also started off bad week 1.  Here were teams that were top 10 for pts allowed for a position for the last 6 weeks of last season, and also allowed top 10 points for the position week 1.  I figured these might be places to start looking for ideas this week:

QB:  Az, Tenn, NO, Wash, Jets  (Chic was close)

RB:  SF, Wash, NO, Indy  (close were Wash, Car, Jets, KC)

WR: Az, Tenn, Det,   (close were Philly, Seat, Indy, Wash)

TE:  Jets, Wash, Giants, Oak,  (close were Pitt, Atl, Clev)

  *** the one wildcard is Miami D, as they were top 10 to QB, RB, WR, and TE at the end of last year, but didn't play this week ***

The reason I said I am not sure if it helps much, is there are a lot of crappy teams that are playing the teams on this list this week : Indy, Jax, Rams, Az, etc..    However, teams like Chargers, Patriots, Oak, and TB might we worth a closer look.  This is what I used a lot last year to try to identify some gpp combos, so for this week something like:  Brady +RB, Goff + Kupp, Carr + Cook, Rivers + anybody, ? 

 
Was bored tonight and like looking at stats.  I was looking to see at RB/WR/TE who had a high # of touches and a high # or % of RZ targets for their team week one.  Again, this is just a start to see who might have the opportunities for cash LUs.  I will fully admit ahead of time I might have missed somebody...

RB ( 20 touches + 4 or more Redzone looks/High % of team's RZ looks) = Fournette, McCoy, Cook, CJ Anderson, Montgomery, Gordon, Stewart. 

WR (8+ targets and more than 1 RZ look):  Cooper, Fitz, Pryor, Thielen, Dez, Decker, Diggs

TE (6 + targers and more than 1 RZ look):  Clay, James, Gronk, Fleener, Miller

A couple of gpp options stood out for that NE/NO game too.  White is cheap and had 15 touches/targets with SIX RZ looks, and Kamara is near min priced and had 13 touches/targets and 4 RZ looks in week one.  Also, Cohen is sitll really cheap on both sites if you like his chances this week. 

 
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Definitely gonna be all over BAL's DEF this week. If you can squeeze them in for the $5100 price tag, SEA's also looks to be in play.

One thing I can remember from past history, which played out last year as well, was Roethlisberger's home/away splits. His home numbers are ridiculously high. Yeah, the Vikes did Ok against Brees. But I'm still gonna have a little exposure to the Steelers passing offense.

Another thought that occurs to me: Mike Gillislee had, what, three rushing TD's against KC last Thursday night, as the replacement for LeGarrette Blount. Guess who KC plays this week? That's right boys & girls - Philadelphia & LeGarrette Blount. I see myself having a lineup or two with him as well. 

 
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Another thought, not my own original one, mind you - repeating from the re-cap of the Sunday Million: one thing that definitely worked was a home RB that was favored, as evidenced by McCoy & Gurley being owned by the top four, and five of the top ten. Seems like a good area to focus on. 

 
My first lineup is:

Russell Wilson 8100

Christian McCaffrey 6600

Melvin Gordon 7600

Larry Fitzgerald 6600

Doug Baldwin 7600

Pierre Garcon 6500

Greg Olsen 6500

Stephen Gostkowski 5100

Carolina Panthers 5100

 
Mine so far

Rivers  (getting him on the cheap in a good matchup)

Hunt  (can't deny the productivity)

Fournette  (decent matchup, script will favor his usage)

Cooks  (you know the deal)

K Allen (ton of targets vs a below avg secondary)

Fitz  (I know he is old, but I can just see this being a good day vs IND)

Bennett  (just have a feeling about him this week, no more)

Tucker (he kicks field goals)

AZ (scored twice last week.  Now on the fast turf in dome vs luckless colts)

 
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Mine so far

Rivers  (getting him on the cheap in a good matchup)

Hunt  (can't deny the productivity)

Fournette  (decent matchup, script will favor his usage)

Cooks  (you know the deal)

K Allen (ton of targets vs a below avg secondary)

Fitz  (I know he is old, but I can just see this being a good day vs IND)

Bennett  (just have a feeling about him this week, no more)

Tucker (he kicks field goals)

AZ (scored twice last week.  Now on the fast turf in dome vs luckless colts)
I will look at my notes again, but I think tenn was tough vs rbs at the end of last year and held lynch in check week 1.  Will get touches, but looking at that steered me away from him in cash for the week.  I think they will do everything in their power to put the ball in Bortles' hands this week. 

 
Thanks for the info, KP.  Will check into that and consider options. I just saw something today on twitter that may change my mind about my WRs.

to quote:

"Stefon Diggs ran 63% of his routes from RWR last week. Joe Haden lined up against RWR 100% of the time last week. A+ matchup.https://twitter.com/ScottBarrettDFB/status/908079802057404416 …

Scott Barrett added,

Scott Barrett @ScottBarrettDFB

Among all 78 CBs >999 snaps (2014-2016) Joe Haden ranks: PFF Grade: 8th-worst Passer Rating: 3rd-worst…"

Don't really know if I was allowed to do that (quote somebody not on this site), but there it is.

Diggs and Fitz are almost the same price. 

 
Still just goofing around at this point...

Carson Palmer vs Colts 7500

Andre Ellington vs Colts 4900

Gillislee vs Saints 6700

Larry Fitz vs Colts 6600

Julio vs GB 8800

Jordy vs ATL 8100

Gronkasaurus 8100

Walsh big home favorite vs div rival 4600

Rams D with Donald back hosting Skins 4400

 
Thanks for the info, KP.  Will check into that and consider options.
I checked - they allowed the least pts/g to rbs over the last 6 weeks of the season last year, and were 11th least pts to rb last week.  That said, they did allow 100+yds on the ground to Oak, so there is that. 

 
I checked - they allowed the least pts/g to rbs over the last 6 weeks of the season last year, and were 11th least pts to rb last week.  That said, they did allow 100+yds on the ground to Oak, so there is that. 
Thank you, sir.  As you stated earlier, just a bad matchup week for top RBs.   

 
Another thought, not my own original one, mind you - repeating from the re-cap of the Sunday Million: one thing that definitely worked was a home RB that was favored, as evidenced by McCoy & Gurley being owned by the top four, and five of the top ten. Seems like a good area to focus on. 
For sure a great place to start, but I also think it was kind of odd that that chalky/cash plays were the ones on the winning LUs too.  Probably overthinking it a tad, but wondering you take that, but get a little "different with it", or just stick to the same.  Ie - I am guessing that Lynch, Gordon, and Hunt will be popular for cash games and pretty chalky.  Do we go with them, or someobdy like Fournette or CJ Anderson that are at home, but maybe have a perceived harder matchup and the ownership might be lower.  Probably a good time as any to get Bell out there in gpps again, especially with all the dfs boners popping up for the GB/ATL/NE/NO shootout games and people paying for those QBs and WRs.

 
Thank you, sir.  As you stated earlier, just a bad matchup week for top RBs.   
I think those are places to look for gpps for sure, but personally I was gravitating to Lynch/Gordon for cash, maybe Ty Mont in a high scoring game vs. bad rush D.  

I think for sure Bell, McCoy, Fournette, Zeke should be in play for tourneys. 

ETA: also don't forget about Ajayi for gpps.

 
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Here was my first idea for a cash LU:

Brady - Gordon/TyMont - Julio/Fitz/Diggs - Clay - Crosby - Balt

another idea was to drop to Rivers and could do a same core, but with Rivers - Bell/Lynch  and Bryant at K. 

 
Piggybacking off reel_smooth's post about looking at home favorite RBs,  I have heard a couple times now about targeting home dog QBs.   This week I guess that would be guys like Bortles, Siemian, Brees, Kizer? 

Was Stafford a home dog last week??

 
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In the spirit of Jax D doing some damage last week, I am staring long and hard at Chargers D.  Good CBs, great DEs that could get some sacks, and I think people are leaning towards SD being ahead a bit in this one if Miami D not improving.   I think Gordon + Chargers D will be in a couple of my gpps, and maybe cash. 

 
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In the spirit of Jax D doing some damage last week, I am staring long and hard at Chargers D.  Good CBs, great DEs that could get some sacks, and I think people are leaning towards SD being ahead a bit in this one if Miami D not improving.   I think Gordon + Chargers D will be in a couple of my gpps, and maybe cash. 
Plus cutler is good for at least one int.

 
Figured I'd make a dalton at home bounce back Gpp for tonight

dalton

freeman

gordon

green

adams

Baldwin

eifert

zuerlein

lions-the lions defense played great, the giants did not look great, albeit with no obj. I also like Baltimore at home vs Cleveland. Lions only 4200 tho. 

 
I'm going to have a LOT of Ty Montgomery this week.  Seems like a screaming value against Falcons.

Paying down at RB2 with Buck Allen allows for this Julio / Diggs / Patriots superstack:

QB    Tom Brady        9200
RB    Ty Montgomery  6500
RB    Javorius Allen        4900
WR    Julio Jones        8800
WR    Stefon Diggs        6500
WR    Chris Hogan        6200
TE    Rob Gronkowski        8100
K    Stephen Gostkowski        5100
D    Baltimore Ravens        4700
Total:        60000

My biggest concern is that Gronk will not return value at a whopping $8100.

Serious question:  Does this look like a GPP or Cash lineup?  I'm thinking GPP, because the Pats superstack will either hit big, or go meh and fail to deliver cash value.  High variance, right?  I'm still a student of the game.   :grad:

 
I'm going to have a LOT of Ty Montgomery this week.  Seems like a screaming value against Falcons.

Paying down at RB2 with Buck Allen allows for this Julio / Diggs / Patriots superstack:

QB    Tom Brady        9200
RB    Ty Montgomery  6500
RB    Javorius Allen        4900
WR    Julio Jones        8800
WR    Stefon Diggs        6500
WR    Chris Hogan        6200
TE    Rob Gronkowski        8100
K    Stephen Gostkowski        5100
D    Baltimore Ravens        4700
Total:        60000

My biggest concern is that Gronk will not return value at a whopping $8100.

Serious question:  Does this look like a GPP or Cash lineup?  I'm thinking GPP, because the Pats superstack will either hit big, or go meh and fail to deliver cash value.  High variance, right?  I'm still a student of the game.   :grad:
I like it but definitely a gpp lineup.

 
KarmaPolice said:
Piggybacking off reel_smooth's post about looking at home favorite RBs,  I have heard a couple times now about targeting home dog QBs.   This week I guess that would be guys like Bortles, Siemian, Brees, Kizer? 

Was Stafford a home dog last week??
Wouldn't be very big on Bortles; Jax seems like they're going to be a run-first offense and rely on DEF to keep it close. Of those, Brees looks like the best matchup and somebody I will have some exposure to as well this week. Not liking Kizer on the road against the Ravens at all. 

 
I'm going to have a LOT of Ty Montgomery this week.  Seems like a screaming value against Falcons.

Paying down at RB2 with Buck Allen allows for this Julio / Diggs / Patriots superstack:

QB    Tom Brady        9200
RB    Ty Montgomery  6500
RB    Javorius Allen        4900
WR    Julio Jones        8800
WR    Stefon Diggs        6500
WR    Chris Hogan        6200
TE    Rob Gronkowski        8100
K    Stephen Gostkowski        5100
D    Baltimore Ravens        4700
Total:        60000

My biggest concern is that Gronk will not return value at a whopping $8100.

Serious question:  Does this look like a GPP or Cash lineup?  I'm thinking GPP, because the Pats superstack will either hit big, or go meh and fail to deliver cash value.  High variance, right?  I'm still a student of the game.   :grad:
Ditto w/ RW - like this as a GPP play. Not so much for cash w/ Allen, who can and probably will have T. West cut into his workload a bit. But, he still has, IMO, the upside for GPP use. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
For sure a great place to start, but I also think it was kind of odd that that chalky/cash plays were the ones on the winning LUs too.  Probably overthinking it a tad, but wondering you take that, but get a little "different with it", or just stick to the same.  Ie - I am guessing that Lynch, Gordon, and Hunt will be popular for cash games and pretty chalky.  Do we go with them, or someobdy like Fournette or CJ Anderson that are at home, but maybe have a perceived harder matchup and the ownership might be lower.  Probably a good time as any to get Bell out there in gpps again, especially with all the dfs boners popping up for the GB/ATL/NE/NO shootout games and people paying for those QBs and WRs.
I would imagine, and rightly so. But I will also mix these guys into GPP's as well. I believe you hit the nail on the head in one aspect; we may be over-thinking things a bit. Probably only need one, or at most, two contrarian plays for GPP's along with the chalky guys. And anymore, I think I'm leaning towards WR's for that purpose because there are so many more options, what with the wide-out vs slot guys and finding the match-ups where one DEF isn't as good at covering one vs the other. OTOH, taking, as someone else did, a guy like Javorious 'Buck' Allen in a RB slot, given his upside, isn't a bad choice either. 

 
Wouldn't be very big on Bortles; Jax seems like they're going to be a run-first offense and rely on DEF to keep it close. Of those, Brees looks like the best matchup and somebody I will have some exposure to as well this week. Not liking Kizer on the road against the Ravens at all. 
I misread the chart and thought Clev was at home, or that was supposed to be somebody else.  Might not be the best week to look at it too much, but I think Brees for sure and maybe Siemian could surprise as well. 

 
I'm going to have a LOT of Ty Montgomery this week.  Seems like a screaming value against Falcons.

Paying down at RB2 with Buck Allen allows for this Julio / Diggs / Patriots superstack:

QB    Tom Brady        9200
RB    Ty Montgomery  6500
RB    Javorius Allen        4900
WR    Julio Jones        8800
WR    Stefon Diggs        6500
WR    Chris Hogan        6200
TE    Rob Gronkowski        8100
K    Stephen Gostkowski        5100
D    Baltimore Ravens        4700
Total:        60000

My biggest concern is that Gronk will not return value at a whopping $8100.

Serious question:  Does this look like a GPP or Cash lineup?  I'm thinking GPP, because the Pats superstack will either hit big, or go meh and fail to deliver cash value.  High variance, right?  I'm still a student of the game.   :grad:
I like it, but gpp for sure.  Not only do you have the Pats super stack, you have the Allen/Ravens combo. 

 
I would imagine, and rightly so. But I will also mix these guys into GPP's as well. I believe you hit the nail on the head in one aspect; we may be over-thinking things a bit. Probably only need one, or at most, two contrarian plays for GPP's along with the chalky guys. And anymore, I think I'm leaning towards WR's for that purpose because there are so many more options, what with the wide-out vs slot guys and finding the match-ups where one DEF isn't as good at covering one vs the other. OTOH, taking, as someone else did, a guy like Javorious 'Buck' Allen in a RB slot, given his upside, isn't a bad choice either. 
For sure.  I think the big winners last week had mostly chalk, but with a guy like Stafford and/or James who was really low owned.  I think this week is a little different because there are those 2 games that everybody is drooling over, so people are loading up on Pats, Saints, Packers, Falcons.   There are so many ways to be different without getting super crazy:

  • Fade those 2 games completely to avoid high ownership: Seattle, Oak, Az have just as high of implied totals as the teams in the 2 shoot out games.
  • Go RB in the high scoring games:  People are stacking up Brady and Cooks, and people are talking about TyMont, but what about Freeman or a low owned NE/NO rb?
  • Stack those games, but take different route with your RB besides the chalk - Car RB?, J.Allen?, Rawls? CJ Anderson?  I think all would be home faves and much lowever % than Lynch/Gordon/Hunt. 
  • probably dozens of other ways too


A few of my odd ideas for stacks I had written down:  Wilson/Richardson, Carr/Cook, Winston/Brate, Mariota/WR, Ben/Bryant, Brady/White, Rodgers/Ty,

 
I like it, but gpp for sure.  Not only do you have the Pats super stack, you have the Allen/Ravens combo. 
Not only that, but, Jones is going to get his in what could be a shoot-out and Diggs looked great last week; if the O-line can hold off the Steelers pass rush long enough for Bradford to find him, he could have a huge day. 

 
For sure.  I think the big winners last week had mostly chalk, but with a guy like Stafford and/or James who was really low owned.  I think this week is a little different because there are those 2 games that everybody is drooling over, so people are loading up on Pats, Saints, Packers, Falcons.   There are so many ways to be different without getting super crazy:

  • Fade those 2 games completely to avoid high ownership: Seattle, Oak, Az have just as high of implied totals as the teams in the 2 shoot out games.
  • Go RB in the high scoring games:  People are stacking up Brady and Cooks, and people are talking about TyMont, but what about Freeman or a low owned NE/NO rb?
  • Stack those games, but take different route with your RB besides the chalk - Car RB?, J.Allen?, Rawls? CJ Anderson?  I think all would be home faves and much lowever % than Lynch/Gordon/Hunt. 
  • probably dozens of other ways too


A few of my odd ideas for stacks I had written down:  Wilson/Richardson, Carr/Cook, Winston/Brate, Mariota/WR, Ben/Bryant, Brady/White, Rodgers/Ty,
I don't disagree with any of that; and I'll throw another stack out there; Brees/Fleener. But there's other, what I would consider to be, 'chalk' options and you hit on them w/ OAK, SEA & I think ARI's passing game should be good, last week not withstanding. I think PITT, KC & BAL offenses should be solid enough as well. 

 
I don't disagree with any of that; and I'll throw another stack out there; Brees/Fleener. But there's other, what I would consider to be, 'chalk' options and you hit on them w/ OAK, SEA & I think ARI's passing game should be good, last week not withstanding. I think PITT, KC & BAL offenses should be solid enough as well. 
So many ways to attack it, and that's what makes this so fun. (it also gets me sucked in to trying too many LUs too). 

One I slammed in on the fly just now:

Brees - Gordon/Allen - Julio/Adams/Ginn - Gronk - Walsh - Chargers. 

You have a stack for both games that might be a little off the board with Brees/Ginn/Gronk and Julio/Adams then a slighly lower owned D with Chargers and a low owned Rb with Allen.  Nothing too crazy, but still attacking the big games and getting exposure the Seattle total with the PK. 

 
I also really like the idea of trying a low $ stack and running it back with somebody from the other team.  allows you to maybe get guys like Zeke/Bell, etc.. in a LU too.   So maybe:

Ben/Bryant + Thielen or Diggs?

Rodgers/Cobb + Sanu or Gabriel?

 
I also really like the idea of trying a low $ stack and running it back with somebody from the other team.  allows you to maybe get guys like Zeke/Bell, etc.. in a LU too.   So maybe:

Ben/Bryant + Thielen or Diggs?

Rodgers/Cobb + Sanu or Gabriel?
I think I like the Ben/Bryant + Thielen or Diggs a little better.

Just going over the projected totals and see that there are 14 teams this week w/ projected points of 24 or higher, listed below:

NE/31.5, OAK/28.75, ATL/28.5, SEA/28, KC/26.75, LAR/26, PITT/25.75, ARI/25.75, GB/25.5, CAR/25, TB/25, LAC/24.75 NO/24.5, BAL/24

 
I think I like the Ben/Bryant + Thielen or Diggs a little better.

Just going over the projected totals and see that there are 14 teams this week w/ projected points of 24 or higher, listed below:

NE/31.5, OAK/28.75, ATL/28.5, SEA/28, KC/26.75, LAR/26, PITT/25.75, ARI/25.75, GB/25.5, CAR/25, TB/25, LAC/24.75 NO/24.5, BAL/24
Where I start with ideas is looking at this list and then comparing it with looking at defensive pts allowed to positions and DVOA for positions. 

Regardless I think that the Oakland passing attack (people all about Lynch) and a bunch of others on there will be overlooked as people gravitate to the 2 high over/under games.  Looking at LA/Wash probably makes you throw up in your mouth a bit, but that is a pretty high o/u and Wash D is kinda bad and it looks like the Rams are bad vs. TE.   Nobody will have Goff/Kupp + Reed. (OK, that might be a little too weird).   Similar with KC/Philly - people seem to be all about Hunt, so will Hill or Kelce go a little over looked?  What about Ertz since Berry is out and he was the one who shut down the TE.  How about a Smith/Hill + Ertz stack?

Also not saying that it has to be a game stack or anything, but if I write down a possibility, I also look to see if there is something coming back in a position that could be exploited.  If not, so be it.  Ie - I like Carr-Cook, but want 0 part of the Jets, or Palmer - Brown, but want nothing to do with Indy. 

 
First crack at a cash lineup, which I'm really late with

Brees

Ty Monty

Fournette

Mike Thomas

Cooks

Cobb

Gates

Bryant

Baltimore

I like it on paper but I'm a little scared of Cobb and Gates in this one.  Still got some tinkering to do.  

 
Ok Here is my first go for a cash lineup:

QB: Mariota (Might switch to Winston)

RB: Gordon (Seems like a good cost), TY Montgomery (Possible pivot play to McCaffrey if I got to Winston)

WR: Tyreek Hill (I think Hunt is going to be getting more attention leaving Hill open for a bomb down field), Julio Jones (I think he is getting 100+ yards and a TD), Thielen 

TE: Kelce

K: Dawson 

Def: Arizona (The Colts will give up a minimum of 4 sacks and a turnover. They are bad to awful without Luck. Even if Arizona is bad without DJ I think the Colts offense will have plenty of miscues).

 
Also not saying that it has to be a game stack or anything, but if I write down a possibility, I also look to see if there is something coming back in a position that could be exploited.  If not, so be it.  Ie - I like Carr-Cook, but want 0 part of the Jets, or Palmer - Brown, but want nothing to do with Indy.
I would Wilson-Baldwin, but no 49ers to that list.

 
Curious to see what happens tonight. Thursday games can look rough to begin with, and neither of these teams played real well week 1. I think Cincy bounces back here while Houston tries to figure out their qb situation. Dalton plays better at home, and will likely have low ownership after his stinker last week. 

 
Curious to see what happens tonight. Thursday games can look rough to begin with, and neither of these teams played real well week 1. I think Cincy bounces back here while Houston tries to figure out their qb situation. Dalton plays better at home, and will likely have low ownership after his stinker last week. 
I put in a couple Thurs-Monday entries with the intent of completely fading both the extra games.  Green was the one I was nervous about going all Hunt on us this week. 

 

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