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ZWK's 2018 Prospect Analysis


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This thread is for my analysis of the 2018 draft class (and other college players). Previously threads: 2017 draft class, 2016 draft class, 2015 draft class, 2014 draft class.

Much of the content of this thread is based on my player stats spreadsheets for WR, RB, RB elusiveness, and QB. I also sometimes have them for TE and pass rushers. Also: birthdates and VBD by draft pick (for generic rookie rankings), and dynasty rankings.

My thoughts on this draft class (and future ones) at the end of last year:

On 5/5/2017 at 6:17 PM, ZWK said:

Looking ahead to future draft classes, I don't have a system for evaluating devy players but I can look at players' production so far (and their estimated size/speed) to see which players I'd already rate highly as prospects if they were entering the NFL right now.

WR: Taking into account production and estimated size/speed, these are the WRs who already show some promise as prospects (starting with the highest-rated): Courtland Sutton (SMU), Equanimeous St. Brown (Notre Dame), Cody Thompson (Toledo), James Washington (Okla St), Michael Gallup (CSU), Nick Westbrook (Indiana), Jonathan Giles (Texas Tech), Jester Weah (Pittsburgh), Anthony Miller (Memphis), Richie James (MTSU), Allenzae Staggers (USM), Cedrick Wilson (Boise St), Darren Carrington (Oregon). Sutton and St. Brown would already qualify as good receiver prospects (assuming their measured size/speed matched the estimates), while Thompson and Washington are borderline. Westbrook's production isn't quite there yet but he's young and has good size, Carrington looked promising in limited time in 2015 but followed that up with a mediocre 2016, and the others had good enough (though not amazing) production but don't have prototypical size or speed (according to nfldraftscout estimates). Some notable names are missing from this list, including Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk, who both have had terrible efficiency numbers through their first 2 seasons (e.g., they were both in the bottom 5 in yards per target in 2016, among the 100 players with the most receiving yards). I put a lot of weight on a receiver's best season, so either of them (or plenty of other WRs) could shoot up the rankings if they play well in 2017.

RB: Derrius Guice (LSU), Royce Freeman (Oregon), Nick Chubb (Georgia), and Saquon Barkley (Penn State) all rate as high-level RB prospects who would be up there among this year's rd 1-2 backs. Freeman and Chubb both struggled in 2016 and are relying more on good production in previous seasons, and could drop in the rankings if they don't bounce back this year. With Chubb, the big question is how well he'll recover from his injury). There is a larger batch of RBs who have shown some promise, but whose numbers weren't at a level where they would have looked very promising prospects if they had been in this year's draft class (unless they had better-than-expected numbers at the combine): Mike Weber (Ohio State), Ty Johnson (Maryland), Rashaad Penny (SDSU), Benjamin Snell, Jr. (Kentucky), Kerryon Johnson (Auburn), James Butler (Nevada), Damien Harris (Alabama), Ray Lawry (ODU), Damarea Crockett (Missouri), Rawleigh Williams III (Arkansas), Lavon Coleman (Washington), Jarvion Franklin (W Mich), Kalen Ballage (Ariz St), Bo Scarbrough (Alabama), Phillip Lindsay (Colorado), Kyle Hicks (TCU), Ito Smith (USM), Myles Gaskin (Washington).

QB: Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), Sam Darnold (USC), and Logan Woodside (Toledo) all had elite production last year. Elite production is no guarantee of NFL success, or even of being worth a high draft pick, but they have shown enough in terms of production so that if NFL evaluators like them then I probably will too. Some other QB prospects had pretty good production this year, at a level that might be enough for me to approve of a player as a 2nd round NFL prospect, but I'll need to see an improvement to be that high on any of them: Mike White (Western Ky), Jake Browning (Washington), Deondre Francois (FSU), Mason Rudolph (Okla St), and Austin Allen (Arkansas), Brett Rypien (Boise St), and Lamar Jackson (Louisville). Notable names who missed the cut: Josh Allen (Wyoming) and Josh Rosen (UCLA).

Edge Rushers: Harold Landry (BC), Duke Ejiofor (Wake Forest), Arden Key (LSU), Bradley Chubb (NC State), Dorance Armstrong Jr. (Kansas), Marquis Haynes (Miss), and Ja'Von Rolland-Jones (Ark St) have the strongest combination of production and estimated size/speed.

Two games so far this year is a tiny sample size, plus there's some other screwy early season stuff going on with my spreadsheets. But I can at least identify which of the players that I mentioned are off to a great start statistically this year and which ones are off to a good start.

At WR, off to a great start: Cedrick Wilson (Boise St), James Washington (Okla St).
Off to a good start: Courtland Sutton (SMU), Darren Carrington (Utah).

At RB, off to a great start: Saquon Barkley (Penn State). Also, not mentioned before the season: Ronald Jones (USC) and Bryce Love (Stanford).
Off to a good start: Nick Chubb (Georgia), Rashaad Penny (SDSU), Damarea Crockett (Missouri), Ty Johnson (Maryland), Royce Freeman (Oregon).

At QB, off to a great start: Mason Rudolph (Okla St), Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), Sam Darnold (USC).
Off to a good start: Josh Rosen (UCLA), Lamar Jackson (Louisville), Jake Browning (Washington), Logan Woodside (Toledo).

Notably missing from these lists: WR Equanimeous St. Brown and RB Derrius Guice.

Edited by ZWK
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This thread is for my analysis of the 2018 draft class (and other college players). Previously threads: 2017 draft class, 2016 draft class, 2015 draft class, 2014 draft class. Much of the content

You should be getting paid for this stuff, ZWK.  We don't deserve you. 

With combine numbers in, here is what my formulas say about this year's draft class compared to the past 5 years: Saquon Barkley    2018      Eddie Lacy    2013 Nick Chubb    2018      To

Bryce Love is fast, but maybe a bit too lean and straight-line to really be a good three down back in the NFL. He's kind of a Tevin Coleman type IMO.

Gaskin reminds me of someone like Gio Bernard. Not very big, but compact, shifty, and instinctive. Also see shades of Ray Rice or even Christian McCaffrey. Best thing he can do this season is show that he can be a weapon in the passing game, which he did in the first game vs. Rutgers. Think he can be a 2nd-3rd rounder. Not a big back, but he's very athletic and can run faster than expected (mid-high 4.4 is possible IMO).

For a late round/UDFA wild card, I'm wondering if Thomas Tyner can get some looks from the NFL. Never really lived up to the HS hype and he's been out of football for a couple years, but size/speed guys like him don't grow on trees. It will be interesting to see if Oregon State involves him more later in the season. Right now it's not looking so good. If you go back and check from several years ago when Oregon made their BCS run, Tyner actually got more work than Freeman in the two playoff games. I think he'll get a camp invite if nothing else.

Grabbed Mark Andrews as a dev pick in a couple of my TE-premium leagues. Made a lot of big plays the last two seasons. He looks bigger this season. Not as good a route runner  as someone like Eifert, but he's big and he can rumble after the catch. Gronk comparisons are natural given build, production, and play style.

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On 9/12/2017 at 3:50 PM, EBF said:

Bryce Love is fast, but maybe a bit too lean and straight-line to really be a good three down back in the NFL. He's kind of a Tevin Coleman type IMO.

Gaskin reminds me of someone like Gio Bernard. Not very big, but compact, shifty, and instinctive. Also see shades of Ray Rice or even Christian McCaffrey. Best thing he can do this season is show that he can be a weapon in the passing game, which he did in the first game vs. Rutgers. Think he can be a 2nd-3rd rounder. Not a big back, but he's very athletic and can run faster than expected (mid-high 4.4 is possible IMO).

For a late round/UDFA wild card, I'm wondering if Thomas Tyner can get some looks from the NFL. Never really lived up to the HS hype and he's been out of football for a couple years, but size/speed guys like him don't grow on trees. It will be interesting to see if Oregon State involves him more later in the season. Right now it's not looking so good. If you go back and check from several years ago when Oregon made their BCS run, Tyner actually got more work than Freeman in the two playoff games. I think he'll get a camp invite if nothing else.

Grabbed Mark Andrews as a dev pick in a couple of my TE-premium leagues. Made a lot of big plays the last two seasons. He looks bigger this season. Not as good a route runner  as someone like Eifert, but he's big and he can rumble after the catch. Gronk comparisons are natural given build, production, and play style.

Bryce Love is listed at 5'10", 196 pounds.  He's a young Junior, having turned 20 this Summer.  Thus, he should have no problem being 205 by next season, which is a pretty good BMI (Body Mass Index) for a RB.  Love is probably closer to 5'9" in terms of NFL Combine barefoot measurement.  He's stronger than many RBs that weigh 215-220 and shouldn't have any problems due to his size.

Rashaad Penny and Bryce Love have been the most impressive RBs IMO at this early juncture of the season.  

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On 9/12/2017 at 6:12 PM, Andrew74 said:

Love this thread. Thanks ZWK. 

I really hope Barkley is all I hope and dream he is...I want the guy on my team. 

I snagged Barkley and Guice!

:horn:toot toot:horn:

Tex

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Here are the top 13 RB prospects, three games into the season, according to my formula:

Saquon Barkley    Penn State
Royce Freeman    Oregon
Nick Chubb    Georgia
    
Derrius Guice    LSU
J.K. Dobbins    Ohio State
    
Rashaad Penny    SDSU
John Kelly    Tennessee
    
Bryce Love    Stanford
Josh Adams    Notre Dame
Damarea Crockett    Missouri
David Montgomery    Iowa State
Ty Johnson    Maryland
Ronald Jones II    USC

This includes production (and workload) from previous years as well as this year, estimated size & speed, age, and elusiveness ratings for the guys that I've watched videos of and from PFF's 2016 stats.

Chubb & Freeman get the largest boosts from the elusiveness stats, in large part because I've watched more videos of them than of any of the other guys (so the other guys haven't had the opportunity yet to get much of a boost or decline). If I was drafting now I'd put them behind Guice, but this is what my formula is giving me right now.

Barkley and Kelly are both off to great starts in the receiving game. Barkley has 4 40+ yard receptions, which is tied with Mississippi WR A.J. Brown for the most in college football.

nfldraftscout has Bryce Love estimated at 181 pounds and Ronald Jones at 195, which hurts their ratings.

Ty Johnson has ridiculously good efficiency stats on 17 carries this year, but I've built enough regression to the mean in the formulas so that he is mostly on this list due to his 2016 production.

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2 hours ago, ZWK said:

Here are the top 13 RB prospects, three games into the season, according to my formula:

Saquon Barkley    Penn State
Royce Freeman    Oregon
Nick Chubb    Georgia
    
Derrius Guice    LSU
J.K. Dobbins    Ohio State
    
Rashaad Penny    SDSU
John Kelly    Tennessee
    
Bryce Love    Stanford
Josh Adams    Notre Dame
Damarea Crockett    Missouri
David Montgomery    Iowa State
Ty Johnson    Maryland
Ronald Jones II    USC

This includes production (and workload) from previous years as well as this year, estimated size & speed, age, and elusiveness ratings for the guys that I've watched videos of and from PFF's 2016 stats.

Chubb & Freeman get the largest boosts from the elusiveness stats, in large part because I've watched more videos of them than of any of the other guys (so the other guys haven't had the opportunity yet to get much of a boost or decline). If I was drafting now I'd put them behind Guice, but this is what my formula is giving me right now.

Barkley and Kelly are both off to great starts in the receiving game. Barkley has 4 40+ yard receptions, which is tied with Mississippi WR A.J. Brown for the most in college football.

nfldraftscout has Bryce Love estimated at 181 pounds and Ronald Jones at 195, which hurts their ratings.

Ty Johnson has ridiculously good efficiency stats on 17 carries this year, but I've built enough regression to the mean in the formulas so that he is mostly on this list due to his 2016 production.

Kalen Ballage and Aeris Williams are missing.

l love Rashaad Penny!

Tex

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4 hours ago, BigTex said:

Kalen Ballage and Aeris Williams are missing.

l love Rashaad Penny!

Tex

He said actual production is part of the formula. That eliminates Ballage. Not entirely his fault, last year his coach didn't get him enough touches and this year their offensive line is terrible.

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Kalen Ballage, Mike Weber, Trayveon Williams, and Myles Gaskin are part of the next batch of players. Aeris Williams and Akrum Wadley are farther down the rankings.

There is a lot of football left to play, and I don't have elusiveness data on most of these guys (plus I'm missing size/speed data on a lot of them too), so I wouldn't read too much into these rankings.

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Still think Gaskin is pretty underrated there. He doesn't belong in the first tier or probably even the second tier, but he can be a useful pro back. I'm gonna stick with a 2nd-4th round projection for him, weighted more towards the 2nd-3rd area. Some comp players when I watch him run: Ray Rice, Gio Bernard, Devonta Freeman, Ameer Abdullah. Throw them in a blender and you get something like Gaskin. Not as powerful as Rice or Freeman, but has the same type of cutting ability and more functional strength than his weight alone would indicate.

Washington is blowing teams away, so they're not using him much. He is a good player though. I'm a Stanford fan when it comes to CFB and, as I said before, I like Gaskin's pro potential more than Love's. Love is just a sprinter with limited base strength and agility. A Duke Johnson/Tevin Coleman type. I don't think he has as much chance to be an every down player in the NFL, whereas Gaskin on the right team can be a starter.

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The average starting college RB gets about 0.35 (first downs + touchdowns + 20-yarders) per carry. Here is how the career stats for 30 RBs look on that stat (including my top 13, in bold):

FD+TD+20/att
0.60    J.K. Dobbins    (55 att)
0.48    Ty Johnson    (162 att)
0.47    Derrius Guice    (291 att)
0.47    Rashaad Penny    (270 att)
0.45    Damarea Crockett    (199 att)

0.44    Bo Scarbrough    (176 att)
0.43    Bryce Love    (183 att)
0.43    Mike Weber    (189 att)
0.41    Nick Chubb    (579 att)
0.40    John Kelly    (194 att)
0.40    Royce Freeman    (785 att)

0.40    Ray Lawry    (533 att)
0.39    Josh Adams    (330 att)
0.39    Saquon Barkley    (492 att)
0.38    Ronald Jones II    (389 att)

0.37    Damien Harris    (218 att)
0.37    Trayveon Williams    (189 att)
0.36    Akrum Wadley    (344 att)
0.35    Benjamin Snell, Jr.    (257 att)
0.35    Myles Gaskin    (488 att)
0.35    AVERAGE RB
0.35    James Butler    (644 att)
0.34    Jarvion Franklin    (735 att)
0.34    Aeris Williams    (225 att)
0.33    Lavon Coleman    (309 att)
0.33    Ito Smith    (632 att)
0.32    Kerryon Johnson    (250 att)
0.32    Phillip Lindsay    (534 att)
0.31    Kyle Hicks    (328 att)
0.31    David Montgomery    (165 att)
0.30    Kalen Ballage    (342 att)

This isn't the only stat that I look at, but it goes pretty far towards explaining which guys didn't make the top 13.

(It's easier to put up extreme efficiency numbers on a smaller number of attempts, which is part of the reason why the guys at the top of my RB rankings are mostly the ones who are solidly above average at this over a large number of attempts rather than the ones with more extreme scores here on a smaller workload.)

Edited by ZWK
added a few more RBs
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9 hours ago, EBF said:

Still think Gaskin is pretty underrated there. He doesn't belong in the first tier or probably even the second tier, but he can be a useful pro back. I'm gonna stick with a 2nd-4th round projection for him, weighted more towards the 2nd-3rd area. Some comp players when I watch him run: Ray Rice, Gio Bernard, Devonta Freeman, Ameer Abdullah. Throw them in a blender and you get something like Gaskin. Not as powerful as Rice or Freeman, but has the same type of cutting ability and more functional strength than his weight alone would indicate.

Washington is blowing teams away, so they're not using him much. He is a good player though. I'm a Stanford fan when it comes to CFB and, as I said before, I like Gaskin's pro potential more than Love's. Love is just a sprinter with limited base strength and agility. A Duke Johnson/Tevin Coleman type. I don't think he has as much chance to be an every down player in the NFL, whereas Gaskin on the right team can be a starter.

I want to like Gaskin but I just can't. I'm not sure why! I admit I haven't watched any of this years' games yet but I will as I have them recorded but last year he either looked the part or he didn't and I'm struggling with that.

Tex

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8 hours ago, ZWK said:

The average starting college RB gets about 0.35 (first downs + touchdowns + 20-yarders) per carry. Here is how the career stats for 30 RBs look on that stat (including my top 13, in bold):

FD+TD+20/att
0.60    J.K. Dobbins    (55 att)
0.48    Ty Johnson    (162 att)
0.47    Derrius Guice    (291 att)
0.47    Rashaad Penny    (270 att)
0.45    Damarea Crockett    (199 att)

0.44    Bo Scarbrough    (176 att)
0.43    Bryce Love    (183 att)
0.43    Mike Weber    (189 att)
0.41    Nick Chubb    (579 att)
0.40    John Kelly    (194 att)
0.40    Royce Freeman    (785 att)

0.40    Ray Lawry    (533 att)
0.39    Josh Adams    (330 att)
0.39    Saquon Barkley    (492 att)
0.38    Ronald Jones II    (389 att)

0.37    Damien Harris    (218 att)
0.37    Trayveon Williams    (189 att)
0.36    Akrum Wadley    (344 att)
0.35    Benjamin Snell, Jr.    (257 att)
0.35    Myles Gaskin    (488 att)
0.35    AVERAGE RB
0.35    James Butler    (644 att)
0.34    Jarvion Franklin    (735 att)
0.34    Aeris Williams    (225 att)
0.33    Lavon Coleman    (309 att)
0.33    Ito Smith    (632 att)
0.32    Kerryon Johnson    (250 att)
0.32    Phillip Lindsay    (534 att)
0.31    Kyle Hicks    (328 att)
0.31    David Montgomery    (165 att)
0.30    Kalen Ballage    (342 att)

This isn't the only stat that I look at, but it goes pretty far towards explaining which guys didn't make the top 13.

(It's easier to put up extreme efficiency numbers on a smaller number of attempts, which is part of the reason why the guys at the top of my RB rankings are mostly the ones who are solidly above average at this over a large number of attempts rather than the ones with more extreme scores here on a smaller workload.)

Sometimes I look at numbers to identify "potential" breakout candidates or under the radar guy's that the media or community has caught up with yet. These guys often look just as good and just as talented as the starter like Penny and Love from last year. So just because they have a smaller workload don't penalize them maybe have another tier of "potentials," some players just haven't been given a real opportunity yet for whatever reason. That might be asking too much but some of these guys are very talented.

Either way this is a another deep class. Load up now on 2018 picks if you have not already but that door is closing fast. 

Screeeeeeeech!!!!

Tex

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On 9/12/2017 at 3:24 PM, ZWK said:

QB: Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), Sam Darnold (USC), and Logan Woodside (Toledo) all had elite production last year. Elite production is no guarantee of NFL success, or even of being worth a high draft pick, but they have shown enough in terms of production so that if NFL evaluators like them then I probably will too. Some other QB prospects had pretty good production this year, at a level that might be enough for me to approve of a player as a 2nd round NFL prospect, but I'll need to see an improvement to be that high on any of them: Mike White (Western Ky), Jake Browning (Washington), Deondre Francois (FSU), Mason Rudolph (Okla St), and Austin Allen (Arkansas), Brett Rypien (Boise St), and Lamar Jackson (Louisville). Notable names who missed the cut: Josh Allen (Wyoming) and Josh Rosen (UCLA).

Through 4 weeks, the top 11 QBs (based only on this season's production) are:

Baker Mayfield    Oklahoma    SR
Mason Rudolph    Okla St    SR
Jake Browning    Washington    JR
Lamar Jackson    Louisville    JR
Nic Shimonek    Texas Tech    SR
Logan Woodside    Toledo    SR
Justin Herbert    Oregon    SO
Taylor Lamb    App St    SR
Kenny Hill    TCU    SR
Nate Stanley    Iowa    SO
Sam Darnold    USC    SO

Mayfield and Rudolph have been producing at a rate that would put them among the top 5 seasons that I've tracked (since 2008). Darnold and Woodside are a bit behind what they did in 2016.

On Josh watch, UCLA's Josh Rosen ranks 17th, Virginia Tech's Josh Jackson ranks 21st, Wyoming's Josh Allen ranks 93rd, and SJSU's Josh Love ranks 99th.

Looking at other notable names: Luke Falk (Wash St) ranks 19th, Deondre Francois (FSU) is out for the year with a torn patella tendon in his left knee. Mike White (Western Ky), Austin Allen (Arkansas), and Brett Rypien (Boise St) are off to bad starts; they're all in the bottom half of the rankings.

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Receiving efficiency numbers are sometimes ridiculous this early in the season. For example:

19/518/4 on 23 targets (22.5 YPT) from Oklahoma State WR James Washington
16/389/4 on 17 targets (22.9 YPT) from Mississippi WR A.J. Brown
13/348/4 on 19 targets (18.3 YPT) from Virginia WR Andre Levrone
23/335/2 on 24 targets (14.0 YPT) from Penn State RB Saquon Barkley
16/305/2 on 20 targets (15.3 YPT) from Oklahoma TE Mark Andrews
10/283/3 on 16 targets (17.7 YPT) from SMU WR James Proche

(Target numbers come from Bill Connelly's Football Study Hall; they look to be accurate but are inconveniently organized by team. They are different from the ones in my spreadsheet which come from NCAASavant, which is less accurate but has the virtue of including all the players in one big table.)

These guys all have more than half of their team's receiving yards:

58% D.J. Moore    Maryland
54% Tyler Johnson    Minnesota
52% Cedrick Wilson    Boise St
51% Devonte Boyd    UNLV
50% John Ursua    Hawai'i *

*excluding the game he missed

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Some receiving top 15 leaderboards after 5-6 games (more stats here):

Yards per Team Attempt      
4.06    DJ Moore    Maryland
3.89    Devonte Boyd    UNLV
3.64    John Ursua    Hawai'i
3.52    James Washington    Okla St
3.51    Anthony Johnson    Buffalo
3.47    Cedrick Wilson    Boise St
3.38    Malcolm Williams    Coast Car
3.36    Tyler Johnson    Minnesota
3.23    Darren Carrington II    Utah
3.16    Michael Gallup    CSU
3.14    Justin Hobbs    Tulsa
3.06    Cam Phillips    Va Tech
3.03    Jaylen Smith    Louisville
3.02    Cody Thompson    Toledo
3.02    Thomas Owens    FIU
        
Yards per Target     
17.2    Andre Levrone    Virginia
16.2    James Washington    Okla St
15.9    A.J. Brown    Miss
15.6    Mark Andrews    Oklahoma
12.8    Saquon Barkley    Penn State
12.1    Tre'Quan Smith    UCF
12.0    Cedrick Wilson    Boise St
11.9    Cody Thompson    Toledo
11.8    Chris Platt    Baylor
11.7    Marcell Ateman    Okla St
11.6    Jonathan Nance    Arkansas
11.6    Devonte Boyd    UNLV
11.5    Tyler Johnson    Minnesota
11.4    Tyre Brady    Marshall
11.1    James Gardner    Miami (Oh)
        
Market Share of Passing TDs    
71%    Darren Carrington II    Utah
71%    DJ Moore    Maryland
67%    Justin Hobbs    Tulsa
67%    Penny Hart    Georgia St
60%    Tyler Johnson    Minnesota
60%    Thomas Owens    FIU
58%    Denzel Mims    Baylor
55%    Stanley Morgan Jr.    Nebraska
54%    Tre'Quan Smith    UCF
53%    David Sills V    WVU
52%    Chris Platt    Baylor
50%    John Ursua    Hawai'i
50%    Deontay Burnett    USC
50%    Davon Grayson    ECU
50%    Andre Wilson    UAB
        
25+ Yard Receptions per Game
1.6    James Washington    Okla St
1.6    Collin Johnson    Texas
1.6    Cody Thompson    Toledo
1.4    Denzel Mims    Baylor
1.4    Cedrick Wilson    Boise St
1.4    J'Mon Moore    Missouri
1.4    Andre Levrone    Virginia
1.33    James Gardner    Miami (Oh)
1.25    Chris Platt    Baylor
1.25    Jordan Lasley    UCLA
1.25    Tre'Quan Smith    UCF
1.2    A.J. Brown    Miss
1.2    Jalen Guyton    N Texas
1.2    Malcolm Williams    Coast Car
1.2    Jonathan Nance    Arkansas
1.2    John Ursua    Hawai'i
1.2    Gary Jennings    WVU

No one made all 4 lists, but several guys made 3 of the 4 lists: James Washington, Cedrick Wilson, Chris Platt, John Ursua, Tre'Quan Smith, Tyler Johnson, Cody Thompson.

Notable names who didn't make any list: Calvin Ridley, Deon Cain, Dante Pettis, Courtland Sutton, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Parris Campbell.  Christian Kirk and Auden Tate failed to meet the minimum yardage cutoff, but would've made the TD market share list if they did (and Tate also would've made the YPT list).

TE Mark Andrews and RB Saquon Barkley each made the YPT list.

Leaderboards are limited to players in the top 100 in receiving yards (329+ yds). Stats are pro-rated for players who have missed games (including Chris Platt & Tre'Quan Smith, who have only played 4 games each). Yards per target may be slightly off due to limitations of the data sources. Coastal Carolina players are missing from YPT due to missing data; it's possible that Malcolm Williams should also be on that list which would put him on 3 of the 4 lists. 25+ Yard Receptions list uses 40+ yard receptions as a tie-breaker, and still extends to 17 players with the last 4 players tied at 0.6 40+ receptions per game.

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2 hours ago, pdasilva said:

Good thread - no love for Auden Tate (FSU)?

Tate is off to a pretty good start, with 11.8 yards per target and 4 of the Seminoles' 5 receiving TDs. He isn't in my spreadsheet because I only include the top 100 players in receiving yards, and with just 4 games for the struggling FSU offense he doesn't make the cut.

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Bryce Love is having a pretty nice season through seven games. He ran for 147 yards this weekend against Oregon, and that was his low for the season. He is one of only six FBS college football players with 7+ yards per carry (min 80 att), and unlike the others he has run for 7+ ypc in each one of his seven games. He has run for at least 1 touchdown each game. He has 22 runs of 20+ yards, which is tied for the 5th most in a season since 2008, behind Melvin Gordon 2014 (on 343 att), Andre Williams 2013 (on 355 att), Ka'Deem Carey 2012 (on 303 att), and Donnel Pumphrey 2016 (on 349 att). So what Love has done in 7 games on 135 carries has only been topped by players who had a full season with 13+ games and 300+ carries.

A few weeks ago I posted some RBs' career rushing stats, looking at First Downs + Touchdowns + 20+ Yard Carries per attempt (FD+TD+20/att). Here's the current leaderboard for this season (min 78 att, data from cfbstats); average for a RB is around 0.35:

0.549    Lamar Jackson    Louisville    QB
0.544    Jalen Hurts    Alabama    QB
0.541    Bryce Love    Stanford    RB
0.520    J.K. Dobbins    Ohio State    RB
0.519    Devin Singletary    FAU    RB
0.496    Jonathan Taylor    Wisconsin    RB
0.490    Ronald Jones II    USC    RB
0.481    Ahmad Bradshaw    Army    QB
0.475    Lexington Thomas    UNLV    RB
0.467    Dontrell Hilliard    Tulane    RB
0.467    Darius Tice    S Florida    RB
0.465    Josh Adams    Notre Dame    RB
0.459    Jeffery Wilson    N Texas    RB
0.449    Nick Chubb    Georgia    RB
0.447    Justin Crawford    WVU    RB
0.439    Shamari Brooks    Tulsa    RB
0.430    Darius Anderson    TCU    RB
0.430    TaQuon Marshall    Ga Tech    QB
0.427    Trey Ragas    La-Lafytte    RB
0.423    Myles Gaskin    Washington    RB
0.423    Brittain Brown    Duke    RB
0.421    Royce Freeman    Oregon    RB
0.413    A.J. Ouellette    Ohio    RB

Some other notable names with 78+ att:
0.388    Kerryon Johnson    Auburn    RB
0.384    Rashaad Penny    SDSU    RB
0.382    Saquon Barkley    Penn State    RB
0.350    Damarea Crockett    Missouri    RB
0.336    John Kelly    Tennessee    RB
0.304    Derrius Guice    LSU    RB
0.294    Akrum Wadley    Iowa    RB
0.278    Kalen Ballage    Ariz St    RB
0.278    Aeris Williams    Miss St    RB
0.253    Trayveon Williams    Texas A&M    RB

Some other notable names with less than 78 att:
0.529    Damien Harris    Alabama    RB
0.471    Ty Johnson    Maryland    RB
0.458    Mike Weber    Ohio State    RB
0.456    Sony Michel    Georgia    RB
0.429    Mark Walton    Miami Fl    RB
0.361    Bo Scarbrough    Alabama    RB
0.310    Lavon Coleman    Washington    RB

Great rushing efficiency numbers for Ronald Jones and Nick Chubb, solid numbers for Barkley and Penny, Guice has struggled.

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Wanted to mention 2 NC State players.

RB Nyheim Hines (JR):

  • 2017: 116/648/6 (5.59 ypc) rushing, 16/89/0 receiving, 7/137/1 punt returns, 16/375/0 kickoff returns
  • Career TDs: rushing (7), receiving (1), kickoff returns (2), punt return (1) - read: versatile
  • Played WR in first 2 seasons, career average of 11.0 ypr - perhaps has a future as a pass catching RB in NFL
  • 2016 All-American as the leadoff leg for the 4x100m relay squad (outdoors) that won the ACC title - read: speed

Those accomplishments are in spite of sharing the backfield with all purpose player Jaylen Samuels (SR):

  • 2017: 31/191/7 (6.2 ypc) rushing, 54/453/3 (8.4 ypr) receiving, 1/2 for 25 yards passing
  • Career TDs: rushing (23), receiving (18), passing (1)
  • Career averages: 6.6 ypc, 9.5 ypr
  • Preseason 2nd team All American and 1st team All ACC at "All Purpose" position; has also been listed at RB and TE in career

Probably a long shot for either of these players to make an impact in the NFL, but both are playing great right now for a top 20 team. :wolf: 

 

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ZWK - Curious where LJ Scott from Michigan St. ranks with your numbers. MSU rotates 3 RBs and has had a lot of trouble run-blocking so far this season (their OL is 2 FR, 2 SO, and 1 SR, with 2 FR and 1 JR as the primary depth), so I am not surprised if his numbers are not high. But he has generally looked like the high ranked recruit he was considered pretty likely to leave after the season.

He has been nicked up a bit and has a couple bad fumbles this year, so his stock may not be as high as it was entering the season, but he still looks like the best RB MSU has had since Bell.

Edited by jtd13
Corrected OL eligibility
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@Just Win Baby@jtd13

It's pretty easy for anyone to look up FD+TD+20/att for individual players - just go to their player page on cfbstats.com and click on "situational" rushing stats to see how many FD, TD, 20+ yarders, and att they have. For those three guys, the numbers are:

0.289 LJ Scott (24/83)
0.319 Nyheim Hines (37/116)
0.613 Jaylen Samuels (19/31), 0.526 for his 4-year career (39/135)

So, below average rushing efficiency from Scott & Hines on this stat, and great efficiency numbers from Samuels on a small sample size.

Small sample size is a negative because 1) great prospects typically earn a large workload, 2) it's easier to have great efficiency numbers on a small sample size because of random variation, and 3) the small sample might reflect an unusual pattern of usage which could inflate a player's stats. It looks like Samuels has been used in unusual ways - for example, a huge fraction of his carries have come at the goal-line - which makes his efficiency numbers not-that-comparable to other players who have gotten something closer to a standard lead back workload. In his favor, if his strengths are receiving and short-yardage running, those are roles that bring lots of fantasy points.

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On 10/17/2017 at 0:55 PM, ZWK said:

@Just Win Baby@jtd13

It's pretty easy for anyone to look up FD+TD+20/att for individual players - just go to their player page on cfbstats.com and click on "situational" rushing stats to see how many FD, TD, 20+ yarders, and att they have. For those three guys, the numbers are:

0.289 LJ Scott (24/83)
0.319 Nyheim Hines (37/116)
0.613 Jaylen Samuels (19/31), 0.526 for his 4-year career (39/135)

So, below average rushing efficiency from Scott & Hines on this stat, and great efficiency numbers from Samuels on a small sample size.

Small sample size is a negative because 1) great prospects typically earn a large workload, 2) it's easier to have great efficiency numbers on a small sample size because of random variation, and 3) the small sample might reflect an unusual pattern of usage which could inflate a player's stats. It looks like Samuels has been used in unusual ways - for example, a huge fraction of his carries have come at the goal-line - which makes his efficiency numbers not-that-comparable to other players who have gotten something closer to a standard lead back workload. In his favor, if his strengths are receiving and short-yardage running, those are roles that bring lots of fantasy points.

As I mentioned, it seems like a long shot for either Hines or Samuel to make an impact in the NFL. However:

Hines played hist first 2 seasons at WR but has a body built more like a RB, and he has speed to burn. (He played WR to get him on the field since State already had RBs Samuels and Matt Dayes.) He is currently 4th in the nation in all purpose yards per game at 178.4. He was just named to the AP midseason All American 2nd team at the all purpose player position.

Samuels was just named to the AP midseason All American 1st team at TE (same link above). He is a playmaker -- he is tied for 4th in the nation in receptions and tied for 9th in total TDs, and he has caught at least one pass in 35 straight games. His issue is not talent/skill, it is what position he can play in the NFL. AP listed him at TE, but he really doesn't play TE. He lines up all over - backfield as single back, backfield with split backs, slot, out wide. And TE isn't likely a NFL fit because he is 5'11" 228. Yet he doesn't really fit a FB mold, either, since he isn't used to block for other RBs... he is either running the ball or running routes on the majority of his snaps. It seems his fit must necessarily be at RB. Maybe a third down back.

I didn't mean to imply by posting about them that you were wrong not to have them included in your list. I just wanted to post about them, and this seemed like a logical thread to do that. :thumbup: 

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On 9/25/2017 at 9:33 PM, ZWK said:

Through 4 weeks, the top 11 QBs (based only on this season's production) are:

Baker Mayfield    Oklahoma    SR
Mason Rudolph    Okla St    SR
Jake Browning    Washington    JR
Lamar Jackson    Louisville    JR
Nic Shimonek    Texas Tech    SR
Logan Woodside    Toledo    SR
Justin Herbert    Oregon    SO
Taylor Lamb    App St    SR
Kenny Hill    TCU    SR
Nate Stanley    Iowa    SO
Sam Darnold    USC    SO

Mayfield and Rudolph have been producing at a rate that would put them among the top 5 seasons that I've tracked (since 2008). Darnold and Woodside are a bit behind what they did in 2016.

On Josh watch, UCLA's Josh Rosen ranks 17th, Virginia Tech's Josh Jackson ranks 21st, Wyoming's Josh Allen ranks 93rd, and SJSU's Josh Love ranks 99th.

Looking at other notable names: Luke Falk (Wash St) ranks 19th, Deondre Francois (FSU) is out for the year with a torn patella tendon in his left knee. Mike White (Western Ky), Austin Allen (Arkansas), and Brett Rypien (Boise St) are off to bad starts; they're all in the bottom half of the rankings.

An update on my QB efficiency rankings. Out of the 100 QBs with 135+ attempts, the current top 14+1 are:

Mason Rudolph    Okla St    SR
Alex Hornibrook    Wisconsin    SO
[Justin Herbert    Oregon    SO]
Baker Mayfield    Oklahoma    SR
McKenzie Milton    UCF    SO
J.T. Barrett    Ohio State    SR
Drew Lock    Missouri    JR
Lamar Jackson    Louisville    JR
Jalen Hurts    Alabama    SO
Logan Woodside    Toledo    SR
Sam Darnold    USC    SO
Trace McSorley    Penn State    JR
Kenny Hill    TCU    SR
Will Grier    WVU    JR
Danny Etling    LSU    SR

Herbert is out with a broken collarbone and doesn't have enough attempts to qualify, but I included him in this list anyways. Hornibrook, Milton, and Etling have run fewer plays than the others, which maybe should count against them (but doesn't in my formula). Mayfield, Darnold, and Woodside all had even better numbers in 2016 than they do this year.

Jake Browning is 20th and Luke Falk is 51st. On Josh watch, Rosen is 23rd, Jackson 27th, Love 93rd, and Allen 95th. Love edges out Allen mainly due to a tougher schedule; Allen's 2 best games have come against Texas State (in contention for the worst FBS team) and Gardner-Webb (not in the FBS).

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  • 2 weeks later...

Here's who my formula has as the top 10 receivers in college football, based only on this year's production:

James Washington    Okla St
Tyler Johnson    Minnesota
Keke Coutee    Texas Tech
DJ Moore    Maryland
Thomas Owens    FIU
John Ursua    Hawai'i
A.J. Brown    Miss
Cedrick Wilson    Boise St
Greg Dortch    Wk Forest
James Gardner    Miami (Oh)

James Washington is lighting it up this year, leading the FBS with 126 receiving yards per game and 14 25+ yard receptions. He's gaining yards at a ridiculously efficient 14.5 yards per target. He has a big lead on the pack in my ratings. The main question mark is that he's doing it on the high-flying Oklahoma State offense, which is also plenty effective when throwing elsewhere.

Tyler Johnson is the opposite: his numbers aren't spectacular on their face (32/620/7 on 62 targets in 9 games), but he is pretty much the entire Minnesota passing offense. He has 47% of the team's receiving yards and 7 of their 9 passing TDs; no one else on the team has reached 105 receiving yards. And despite being the team's only weapon in the passing game, he's putting up solid efficiency numbers (10.0 YPT) which are way better than what the team gets when throwing elsewhere (6.2 YPT).

Keke Coutee is 3rd in the FBS with 114 receiving yards per game, and has been efficient with 11.9 yards per target.

DJ Moore hasn't been that efficient (9.0 YPT), but he's the only receiver with more than half of the market share in his team's receiving yards. Maryland has 64/660/6 passing on 110 targets when throwing elsewhere, while Moore has 59/820/8 receiving on 91 targets. He's 19th in receiving yards per game despite playing for the team that's 115th in passing yards per game.

Thomas Owens and John Ursua have both the volume (100+ yd/g) and the market share (44-45% of rec yds), along with good efficiency (10.6+ YPT). AJ Brown has volume (92.2 yd/g) and efficiency (13.4 YPT). Cedrick Wilson is a step behind Owens & Ursua with 92 yd/g and a 40% market share. Dortch and Gardner both have a nice combo of yards (90+ yd/g), TDs (1+ TD/g, 48%-53% market share of rec TDs) and big plays (10+ 25+ yd rec).

I won't go into detail on the next 12 guys, but their names are:

Cody Thompson    Toledo
Tre'Quan Smith    UCF
Diontae Johnson    Toledo
Denzel Mims    Baylor
Penny Hart    Georgia St
James Proche    SMU
David Sills V    WVU
Jordan Lasley    UCLA
Stanley Morgan Jr.    Nebraska
Steven Sims Jr.    Kansas
Darren Carrington II    Utah
Anthony Johnson    Buffalo

Some notable names who did not make the cut (ranked from best 2017 stats to worst): Marcell Ateman, Deontay Burnett, Anthony Miller, Courtland Sutton,
Simmie Cobbs Jr., Dante Pettis, Calvin Ridley. And some notable names who didn't have enough receiving yards to qualify for my spreadsheet (outside of the top 100): Equanimeous St. Brown, Auden Tate, Deon Cain, Christian Kirk, Parris Campbell.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Jordan Lasley shoots up to #2 in my WR rankings with huge games against Arizona State and USC. He is leading the FBS in receiving yards per game and 25+ receptions per game, and has 1 TD per game, though he has a smallish sample size with only 7 games played due to missing time for an unspecified team suspension. He looks to be joining Leonte Carroo (2015), Darren Carrington (2015), and DeVante Parker (2014) as receivers to put up huge numbers over a partial season.

James Washington is still on top, and is the only guy who seems to be highly regarded by both conventional wisdom and my 2017 production formula. Courtland Sutton is up there too once you take 2016 production into account.

There is more overlap among QBs (Mayfield, Rudolph, Darnold, L Jackson) and RBs (Barkley, Guice, Chubb, and R Freeman, with some others in striking distance depending on the combine - D Harris, Love, R Jones, J Adams). So I'm currently feeling more optimistic about this year's RB and QB classes than the WRs.

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On 10/23/2017 at 5:31 PM, ZWK said:

An update on my QB efficiency rankings. Out of the 100 QBs with 135+ attempts, the current top 14+1 are:

Mason Rudolph    Okla St    SR
Alex Hornibrook    Wisconsin    SO
[Justin Herbert    Oregon    SO]
Baker Mayfield    Oklahoma    SR
McKenzie Milton    UCF    SO
J.T. Barrett    Ohio State    SR
Drew Lock    Missouri    JR
Lamar Jackson    Louisville    JR
Jalen Hurts    Alabama    SO
Logan Woodside    Toledo    SR
Sam Darnold    USC    SO
Trace McSorley    Penn State    JR
Kenny Hill    TCU    SR
Will Grier    WVU    JR
Danny Etling    LSU    SR

Herbert is out with a broken collarbone and doesn't have enough attempts to qualify, but I included him in this list anyways. Hornibrook, Milton, and Etling have run fewer plays than the others, which maybe should count against them (but doesn't in my formula). Mayfield, Darnold, and Woodside all had even better numbers in 2016 than they do this year.

Jake Browning is 20th and Luke Falk is 51st. On Josh watch, Rosen is 23rd, Jackson 27th, Love 93rd, and Allen 95th. Love edges out Allen mainly due to a tougher schedule; Allen's 2 best games have come against Texas State (in contention for the worst FBS team) and Gardner-Webb (not in the FBS).

How do Jarrett Stidham and Ryan Finley look?

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  • 2 weeks later...

With the regular season in the books, here are the top 5 college QB seasons of the past decade, by my metrics:

1. Russell Wilson 2011
2. Baker Mayfield 2017
3. Baker Mayfield 2016
4. Jameis Winston 2013
5. Sam Bradford 2008

Although passing stats have been going up over time and this doesn't include any era adjustments.

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These are the WRs who have had good career production, by my numbers:

Elite Production
Jordan Lasley    UCLA
James Washington    Okla St
Anthony Miller    Memphis
    
Strong Production
A.J. Brown    Miss *
Cedrick Wilson    Boise St
Darren Carrington II    Utah
Keke Coutee    Texas Tech
Greg Dortch    Wk Forest *
Byron Pringle    Kansas St
Tre'Quan Smith    UCF
Anthony Johnson    Buffalo
Diontae Johnson    Toledo
Cody Thompson    Toledo
DJ Moore    Maryland
Richie James    MTSU
Stanley Morgan Jr.    Nebraska
DJ Chark    LSU
Courtland Sutton    SMU
Michael Gallup    CSU
Tyler Johnson    Minnesota *
David Sills V    WVU
    
Decent Production
Allenzae Staggers    USM
Equanimeous St. Brown    Notre Dame
Marcell Ateman    Okla St
Emanuel Hall    Missouri
Jester Weah    Pittsburgh
Denzel Mims    Baylor *
JJ Arcega-Whiteside    Stanford
Thomas Owens    FIU
Penny Hart    Georgia St *
J'Mon Moore    Missouri
Marquise Brown    Oklahoma *
James Gardner    Miami (Oh)
Steven Sims Jr.    Kansas
James Proche    SMU

* not draft eligible

I pro-rated the stats of guys who missed games, which might be too generous to some of them (especially Lasley and Carrington).

Production is only part of the story, but guys who don't make any of these categories are less likely to succeed in the NFL even if they're relatively highly drafted (and the track record of guys in the "Decent Production" category is shakier than for guys in the higher categories).

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  • 4 weeks later...

With just the championship game to go, here are a few receiving top 20ish leaderboards:

Yards per Team Attempt
3.55    Cody Thompson    Toledo    *
3.49    Tyler Johnson    Minnesota    *
3.41    Jordan Lasley    UCLA    *
3.39    Anthony Johnson    Buffalo    
3.37    Cedrick Wilson    Boise St    
3.25    DJ Moore    Maryland    
3.24    Thomas Owens    FIU    *
3.15    John Ursua    Hawai'i    *
3.12    Calvin Ridley    Alabama    
3.08    James Washington    Okla St    
3.08    Michael Gallup    CSU    
3.03    Terren Encalade    Tulane    
3.02    Diontae Johnson    Toledo    
3.00    Anthony Miller    Memphis    
2.91    DJ Chark    LSU    
2.90    Byron Pringle    Kansas St    
2.88    A.J. Brown    Miss    
2.84    Justin Hobbs    Tulsa    
2.76    Tre'Quan Smith    UCF    
2.75    Greg Dortch    Wk Forest    *
2.75    N'Keal Harry    Ariz St    
2.75    Jaylen Smith    Louisville    *

Market Share of Passing TDs
93%    Tyler Johnson    Minnesota    *
58%    Anthony Johnson    Buffalo    
53%    John Ursua    Hawai'i    *
53%    DJ Moore    Maryland    
53%    Penny Hart    Georgia St    
52%    Chris Platt    Baylor    *
52%    Auden Tate    FSU    
50%    Korey Robertson    USM    
50%    Justin Hobbs    Tulsa    
49%    David Sills V    WVU    
47%    Darren Andrews    UCLA    *
47%    Stanley Morgan Jr.    Nebraska    
46%    Anthony Miller    Memphis    
46%    Diontae Johnson    Toledo    
46%    James Gardner    Miami (Oh)    
46%    JJ Arcega-Whiteside    Stanford    
46%    Thomas Owens    FIU    *
45%    Christian Kirk    Texas A&M    
45%    Felton Davis III    Mich St    
44%    Greg Dortch    Wk Forest    *

25+ Yard Receptions per Game
1.8    Jordan Lasley    UCLA    *
1.6    Cody Thompson    Toledo    *
1.6    Cedrick Wilson    Boise St    
1.5    James Washington    Okla St    
1.3    Anthony Johnson    Buffalo    
1.3    A.J. Brown    Miss    
1.3    Tre'Quan Smith    UCF    
1.3    Greg Dortch    Wk Forest    *
1.2    Marcell Ateman    Okla St    
1.2    Marquez Valdes-Scantling    S Florida    
1.2    Anthony Miller    Memphis    
1.1    DJ Chark    LSU    
1.1    James Gardner    Miami (Oh)    
1.1    Denzel Mims    Baylor    
1.1    Courtland Sutton    SMU    
1.0    John Ursua    Hawai'i    *
1.0    Michael Gallup    CSU    
1.0    Byron Pringle    Kansas St    
1.0    Marquise Brown    Oklahoma    
1.0    Keke Coutee    Texas Tech    
1.0    Steve Ishmael    Syracuse    
1.0    Stanley Morgan Jr.    Nebraska    
1.0    Chris Platt    Baylor    *
1.0    Wyatt Demps    Nevada    
1.0    Davon Grayson    ECU   

* played 10 or fewer games. Stats are pro-rated for guys who missed games.

The only guys who made all 3 leaderboards are Anthony Johnson, John Ursua*, Anthony Miller, and Greg Dortch*. A lot of guys make 2 of the lists: Cody Thompson*, Tyler Johnson*, Jordan Lasley*, Cedrick Wilson, DJ Moore, James Washington, AJ Brown, Thomas Owens*, Tre'Quan Smith, DJ Chark, Diontae Johnson, Justin Hobbs, Michael Gallup, James Gardner, Chris Platt*, Byron Pringle, and Stanley Morgan Jr.  Most big names did manage to make at least one of the lists, including Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, and Courtland Sutton.

I'll post the YPT leaderboard within the next couple weeks; Bill Connelly hasn't updated his target stats yet to include bowl games.

(These lists are limited to players who made the top 100 in receiving yards, plus another dozen guys who I added manually.)

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This RB class is looking really strong. RB ratings can change a lot between now and the draft, since size & athleticism are so important at the position and we won't have solid numbers there till the combine (plus I'll be adding elusiveness data), but for now my formulas are high on the top 8 RBs: Royce Freeman, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Rashaad Penny, [tier break], Bryce Love, Ronald Jones II, Damien Harris, and Derrius Guice.

Out of the 8, Barkley and Guice are the only 2 who didn't have great rushing efficiency this year, but Barkley makes up for it with his big receiving numbers and Guice partially makes up for it with his 2016 production (but still rates last out of these 8). Love & Jones are projected to have sub-4.4 speed, while the other 6 all have good size. Harris's committee-sized workload is a concern, but his yards after contact were ridiculously good according to PFF.

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On 9/23/2017 at 0:12 AM, EBF said:

Still think Gaskin is pretty underrated there. He doesn't belong in the first tier or probably even the second tier, but he can be a useful pro back. I'm gonna stick with a 2nd-4th round projection for him, weighted more towards the 2nd-3rd area. Some comp players when I watch him run: Ray Rice, Gio Bernard, Devonta Freeman, Ameer Abdullah. Throw them in a blender and you get something like Gaskin. Not as powerful as Rice or Freeman, but has the same type of cutting ability and more functional strength than his weight alone would indicate.

Washington is blowing teams away, so they're not using him much. He is a good player though. I'm a Stanford fan when it comes to CFB and, as I said before, I like Gaskin's pro potential more than Love's. Love is just a sprinter with limited base strength and agility. A Duke Johnson/Tevin Coleman type. I don't think he has as much chance to be an every down player in the NFL, whereas Gaskin on the right team can be a starter.

This post was quite a while ago - do you still have this view?

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Strongly disagree with "Love is just a sprinter with limited base strength and agility." I too am a big Stanford, attending games and spring practices. Love has consistently displayed the ability to break tackles this past season. He also has a very nice jump cut and can juke defenders out of their shoes. (Watch the ND and second SC games if you doubt this.) The only open question is his receiving ability. Stanford doesn't throw to their RBs in the traditional sense. When McCaffery was there he was often split out in the slot when they threw to him. My guess is that Love doesn't have strong receiving skills, which could limit his upside. 

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Good point about the questions regarding Love in the receiving game. Receiving production matters a lot for fantasy value, especially in PPR leagues. Melvin Gordon outscored Jordan Howard by 85 fpts in PPR this year, even though Howard had 15 more rushing yards and 1 more rushing TD, because of the huge difference in receiving production.

Barkley checked the "receiving skills" box with authority this year, and Freeman checked the box last year. But there hasn't been much receiving production from Love, Chubb (especially post-injury), Jones, Harris, and Guice.

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9 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

This post was quite a while ago - do you still have this view?

I'm higher on him than I was back then, but he's still not a guy who I plan to target in rookie drafts. I would still cite size and elusiveness in the second level as mediocre areas for him. He was great in college, but it's college. Tevin Coleman was great in college too. It's a different level and things that work there may not necessarily translate. I haven't been keeping up on mocks, but to me he probably isn't a first round back. More like a 2nd-3rd rounder.

Style-wise, Gaskin is more the type of back that I gravitate towards. Good cutting ability and plays with great balance. Not sure he has the size to be an every down guy in the NFL. After getting burned by Abdullah, I'm a little more leery of this type.

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On 1/3/2018 at 6:53 PM, EBF said:

I'm higher on him than I was back then, but he's still not a guy who I plan to target in rookie drafts. I would still cite size and elusiveness in the second level as mediocre areas for him. He was great in college, but it's college. Tevin Coleman was great in college too. It's a different level and things that work there may not necessarily translate. I haven't been keeping up on mocks, but to me he probably isn't a first round back. More like a 2nd-3rd rounder.

Style-wise, Gaskin is more the type of back that I gravitate towards. Good cutting ability and plays with great balance. Not sure he has the size to be an every down guy in the NFL. After getting burned by Abdullah, I'm a little more leery of this type.

I can’t see Gaskin being more than a COP, third down kind of back.

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On 1/3/2018 at 10:23 PM, Soulfly3 said:

So, you really love Penny, do ya, @ZWK ???

I;m trying to love him more, personally.. Feel like he's next year's Kareem Hunt/Kamara

He ahsnt caught MANY passes, but his reciving production ahs gone up yearly.

Penny's rushing production has been top-notch. Tons of long runs (behind only Bryce Love), tons of touchdowns, effective in short yardage. 2nd in PFF's elusiveness rating (again behind only Bryce Love). Also had great efficiency stats in 2016, though on a smaller workload playing behind Donnel Pumphrey. Good size (at least according to nfldraftscout's estimate).

Level of competition obviously raises some questions. His stats have been a lot better than Pumphrey's or Chase Price's were in recent years, which is a good sign.

Lack of receiving production also could be a concern. His success as a returner seems like a good sign for what he can do after the catch, but I don't know about his route running or his hands.

And I haven't had a chance to watch much of him yet, so at this point I'm basically just going off his numbers rather than what I've seen of him on video.

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