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ZWK's 2018 Prospect Analysis


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Haven't been paying much attention this year, but this draft looks pretty bad at first glance. I feel like the 1.01 is the only premium pick, though I've always been a Chubb fan as well. He didn't run the blistering 40 that he once seemed capable of, but he's still a phenomenal height/weight/speed/explosiveness athlete in addition to being productive on the field. He's probably going to be my 1.02 because I think even if he's not what he once was, he can still be solid ala McGahee.

Not going to really dive and attempt to put together comprehensive rankings this year until after the draft, as I didn't pay much attention to the CFB season or the combine. I'm just going to let the NFL slot these guys in the draft and then scrutinize them before my rookie drafts.

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This thread is for my analysis of the 2018 draft class (and other college players). Previously threads: 2017 draft class, 2016 draft class, 2015 draft class, 2014 draft class. Much of the content

You should be getting paid for this stuff, ZWK.  We don't deserve you. 

With combine numbers in, here is what my formulas say about this year's draft class compared to the past 5 years: Saquon Barkley    2018      Eddie Lacy    2013 Nick Chubb    2018      To

On 3/6/2018 at 4:05 PM, ZWK said:

Post-combine WR rankings:

DJ Moore    Maryland
James Washington    Okla St
Tre'Quan Smith    UCF
Jordan Lasley    UCLA
DJ Chark    LSU
Courtland Sutton    SMU
    
Anthony Miller    Memphis
Cedrick Wilson    Boise St
Equanimeous St. Brown    Notre Dame
Darren Carrington II    Utah
Keke Coutee    Texas Tech
Marcell Ateman    Okla St
Michael Gallup    CSU
    
Jester Weah    Pittsburgh
Thomas Owens    FIU
Byron Pringle    Kansas St
James Gardner    Miami (Oh)
J'Mon Moore    Missouri

 

The WR class is looking stronger after the combine than it was before; there are now 6 guys in the top tier instead of just Washington & Lasley.

DJ Moore and Tre'Quan Smith both had strong production, but it wasn't clear if they had NFL caliber size & athleticism to go with it. They both had great combines, showing tons of explosiveness on the jumps. DJ Moore also represented one of nfldraftscout's biggest prediction errors - they estimated him at as a tiny 5'9.75", but he measured up at an averageish 6'0". So they both jump up into this top tier after previously appearing farther down my rankings.

James Washington fell back to the pack with a mediocre showing at the combine, including a 4.54 forty when nfldraftscout thought he had 4.45 speed and unimpressive jumps. That pulled him back to the pack, with a bit of an assist from his shrinking arms. Jordan Lasley also had mediocre combine numbers, including a lousy 9'4" broad jump, but those were closer to predictions so he didn't move much. They are both still in the top back thanks to their huge production numbers.

DJ Chark: I previously said "Chark was one of the more effective deep threats in college football this year, with 8 40+ yard receptions and 12.9 yards per target. He made 3 out of the 4 WR leaderboards that I posted. I'll be on board if he has the sub-4.4 speed to match the role." With a 4.34 forty and great jumps, Chark jumps into the top pack despite being on the thin side.

Courtland Sutton is sort of between tiers; he gets a bit of a boost from above average jumps and a 4.54 forty which was a bit faster than expected. Decent athleticism given his size of 6'3.4" and 218 lbs.

The next tier of guys rate more as "rd 3 of the NFL draft" types, although Anthony Miller still has a shot at joining the top tier with a good pro day (he skipped the combine drills as he's recovering from a foot injury). And if you love size then maybe St. Brown (6'4.5") and Ateman (6'4.75") have a case for going sooner, though they're already getting a boost in my ratings because of their size.

Kirk?

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48 minutes ago, matuski said:

Kirk?

Kirk and Ridley both had middling production, which is a major negative. This year they were 51st and 57th in the FBS in receiving yards per game (min 10 games), for example, and they only look slightly better than that if we look at their complete profile. Kirk had a good number of touchdowns, but bad yards per target and averageish market share. Ridley had good market share and decent yards per target but not many touchdowns. Successful NFL WRs usually do more than that in college.

In the Ridley thread, it came up that Alabama had a lot of garbage time passing production (about 1/6 of their passing production), but even if I adjust for that by pretending that Ridley played in only 12 of Alabama's 14 games he still comes out with not-good-enough production (still between Craig Davis and Jon Baldwin in the list of least-college-productive first round WRs).

A much less important factor is that neither of them looks like a prototypical NFL WR1 - Kirk is short and has short arms, Ridley is thin.

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1 hour ago, ZWK said:

Kirk and Ridley both had middling production, which is a major negative. This year they were 51st and 57th in the FBS in receiving yards per game (min 10 games), for example, and they only look slightly better than that if we look at their complete profile. Kirk had a good number of touchdowns, but bad yards per target and averageish market share. Ridley had good market share and decent yards per target but not many touchdowns. Successful NFL WRs usually do more than that in college.

In the Ridley thread, it came up that Alabama had a lot of garbage time passing production (about 1/6 of their passing production), but even if I adjust for that by pretending that Ridley played in only 12 of Alabama's 14 games he still comes out with not-good-enough production (still between Craig Davis and Jon Baldwin in the list of least-college-productive first round WRs).

A much less important factor is that neither of them looks like a prototypical NFL WR1 - Kirk is short and has short arms, Ridley is thin.

You might want to look at Kirk and his production with his different QBs.

If his production was middling overall, his production doubled (literally) once they put a real QB in.  So what is middling x 2?

eta - stats in general seem a poor benchmark for college athletes. The situations vary so much - offense, QB, overall team, schedule.  Eyeballs are required imo, and any set of eyeballs that watched Kirk can see he is trouble for opposing defenses with the ball in his hands.

eta again - I'm assuming based on your arguments and your rankings you did not lay eyes on him during the last couple seasons.

Edited by matuski
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I generally look at whole seasons of production rather than picking out individual games or small sets of games. In three years at Texas A&M with various quarterbacks and teammates, Kirk never topped 78 receiving yards per game or 31% of his team's receiving production. I'm not that excited about Kirk based on his 4-game stretch to end this season, just like I'm not that excited about Virginia's Andre Levrone based on his 4-game stretch to start the season.

This year Kirk had 51 yd/g and 26% of the Aggies' receiving yards through the first 9 games - bad totals and slightly below average market share. Then Kirk and the A&M passing offense went on a 4-game hot streak and he had 114 yd/g and 31% of the receiving yards over those 4 games - very good totals and slightly above average market share (as the offense was on pace to be #2 in college football in passing yd/g). The 13-game average is 71 yd/g and 28% of the receiving yards - middling for both. If Kirk had kept up the level of production from that 4-game stretch over a full season then he would rate higher, but he didn't this year or any other and I doubt that he would have even if Starkel had been their QB.

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PFF has published their draft guide (subscribers only, unfortunately). It has data on things like receivers' drop rate, which I've incorporated into my overall ratings. The drop rate data is bad news more often than good news for this year's draft class.

Awful drop rate: Byron Pringle, Jester Weah, Jordan Lasley
Worse than average drop rate: J'Mon Moore, DaeSean Hamilton, James Washington, Keke Coutee, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Deon Cain
Averageish drop rate: Anthony Miller, Tre'Quan Smith, Thomas Owens, Courtland Sutton, Christian Kirk, Cedrick Wilson
Better than average drop rate: Michael Gallup, Marcell Ateman, Equanimeous St. Brown, DJ Chark, Dante Pettis, Darren Carrington II

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10 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:

I can't accept Sony being ranked 11th in your ranking, @ZWK

I LOOOOVE your work, and I use it for all my dynasty drafts and will continue doing so. But in Sony's case, one has to imagine splitting time was a major factor in his ranking, but then Chubb is sky high.

Sony came on hot later in the year, but he's always been good. I loved watching him play.

Ugh. Im torn.

Sony is the type of player who is hurt by any production based formulas. Having to share touches in the most talented backfield in college football naturally means his counting stats across the board won't measure up to stand alone workhorses like Rashaad Penny, Royce Freeman, etc. It is interesting to me though how Chubb still fares so well. His combine was superb. I feel like that says more about him though than a knock on Sony.

Michel is the kind of player who won't be a workout warrior but has those intangibles (vision, in particular is a strength) and is athletic enough to succeed in the NFL. Michel's 40 time was slightly slower than Chubb's, but if you look at the 10 yard split Michel was quite a bit quicker there. 

Personally 1.03 for me will come down to Chubb vs. Michel, and their landing spot will likely have a large part of that. 

 

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PFF's draft guide (subscribers only) includes RB elusiveness data - yards after contact and missed tackles - which I'm using this year in my RB ratings. I have stopped charting RB elusiveness myself since I didn't want to take on that much work, although for some RBs in this year's draft class who I charted in previous years I'm giving a little bit of weight to my Hard to Tackle metrics.

Disadvantages of PFF's elusiveness metrics compared to mine: they don't cap yards after contact for a single play (so an 80 yard run might have 75 yards after contact even though most of those 75 yards don't tell us anything about how good the RB is at beating defenders), they don't distinguish between plays "in space" and "in traffic" (which have very different degrees of difficulty - a RB with a head of steam who is one-on-one with a safety has a much easier time driving forward for a few yards, or eluding the defender completely, than a RB who is mobbed at the line of scrimmage), and they don't adjust for strength of schedule. Advantages of PFF's elusiveness metrics compared to mine: they chart every carry of every game (rather than just a handful of games for which there are cutups on draftbreakdown or youtube) and someone who isn't me is doing most of the work.

Rashaad Penny and Josh Adams both have excellent PFF elusiveness metrics, while Kalen Ballage and Kerryon Johnson both rate below average.

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RB Kerryon Johnson had unofficial 40 times of 4.54 and 4.58 at Auburn's pro day March 9 after choosing not to run at the combine. For now I'll count that as equivalent to a 4.58 at the combine, which is worse than average and worse than predicted for him. Along with his poor PFF elusiveness numbers, that moves him down my rankings from RB6 to RB8; instead of trailing the top 5 as part of his own mini-tier he is now in a bundle of RB7-11.

There are more pro days that are coming up where we might get info on other guys who didn't run the 40 at the combine (or who are missing other relevant data). Here's a list:

WR Dante Pettis (sat out Washington pro day March 10, plans to run sometime)
TE Troy Fumagalli (Wisconsin pro day is March 14)
RB John Kelly (Tennessee pro day is March 19)
WR DaeSean Hamilton (Penn State pro day is March 20)
RB Ronald Jones II (USC pro day is March 21)
WR Deontay Burnett (USC pro day is March 21)
QB Sam Darnold (USC pro day is March 21)
RB Josh Adams (Notre Dame pro day is March 22)
RB Boston Scott (Louisiana Tech pro day is March 22)
RB Justin Stockton (Texas Tech pro day is March 23)
RB Justin Wilkins (Mississippi pro day is March 27)
TE Chris Herndon IV (Miami pro day is March 28)
TE Jordan Akins (UCF pro day is March 29)
QB Lamar Jackson (Louisville pro day is March 29)
WR Darren Carrington II (Utah pro day is March 29)
RB Ito Smith (USM pro day is March 29)
WR Thomas Owens (FIU pro day is March 29)
TE Dallas Goedert (South Dakota State pro day is March 30)
RB Jeffery Wilson (North Texas pro day is March 30)
WR Anthony Miller (Memphis pro day is April 3 or 6?)

I don't know if these guys will choose to participate at their pro days.

Edited by ZWK
added a few players and corrected some dates
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Jaylen Samuels has been ridiculously efficient running the ball in the red zone. In his 4 years at NC State, he had 56 red zone carries and scored a TD on 25 of them, 45%. Statline of 56/215/25, 3.8 yards per carry. So those weren't all goal-line plunges.

I've been updating my RB spreadsheet to include 2015-16 production for more players. Samuels's 2017 rushing efficiency was extremely good on a small sample size - 3rd in college football, by my numbers - but somehow his 2015-17 combined rushing efficiency is even better. Seems like he could be a nice Rex Burkhead replacement in New England for the receiving + short yardage RB role.

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37 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Jaylen Samuels has been ridiculously efficient running the ball in the red zone. In his 4 years at NC State, he had 56 red zone carries and scored a TD on 25 of them, 45%. Statline of 56/215/25, 3.8 yards per carry. So those weren't all goal-line plunges.

I've been updating my RB spreadsheet to include 2015-16 production for more players. Samuels's 2017 rushing efficiency was extremely good on a small sample size - 3rd in college football, by my numbers - but somehow his 2015-17 combined rushing efficiency is even better. Seems like he could be a nice Rex Burkhead replacement in New England for the receiving + short yardage RB role.

Seems the league is insistent on pigeonholing him as a TE. New England would certainly be an exception considering how they used to use Hernandez.

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16 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

Seems the league is insistent on pigeonholing him as a TE. New England would certainly be an exception considering how they used to use Hernandez.

Offensive weapon, a la shoelace. 

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20 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Offensive weapon, a la shoelace. 

I think he’ll be more effective than Shoelace. It’s tough to rank him. I think he’ll end up listed positionally as a TE and I think that gives him more value in rookie drafts. Most TE’s take a few years to have any viable impact but if he is coming into the league and is getting carries it makes him an interesting TE3 to carry as he could have high end weeks if he sees goalline work.

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11 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

I think he’ll be more effective than Shoelace. It’s tough to rank him. I think he’ll end up listed positionally as a TE and I think that gives him more value in rookie drafts. Most TE’s take a few years to have any viable impact but if he is coming into the league and is getting carries it makes him an interesting TE3 to carry as he could have high end weeks if he sees goalline work.

Totally agree, I would love to see what a creative offensive mind would do with him. Seems you could line him up as a rb, H-back, fullback, te, or out wide. He can run, catch, and block. 

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On 3/10/2018 at 4:32 PM, ZWK said:

Here is how my formulas rate this year's TE class:

Mike Gesicki

Mark Andrews
Ian Thomas
Tyler Conklin
Jaylen Samuels

Hayden Hurst

everyone else at the combine

 

Mike Gesicki blew up the combine, with a 4.54 forty and similarly impressive numbers on the vertical, broad jump, and 3 cone drill. Nowhere close to Vernon Davis numbers, but in contention for the second-best TE combine on record. Add in his solid production at Penn State, and I have him rated as the 5th best TE prospect since 2006, behind Vernon Davis, Evan Engram, Ladarius Green, and Coby Fleener.

Mark Andrews had strong production at Oklahoma and a middle-of-the-road combine, with a nice 40 time but mediocre numbers in the other drills. He has a bit of a gap on the rest of his tier, though not nearly as big as the gap between Gesicki and Andrews.

Ian Thomas, Tyler Conklin, and Jaylen Samuels each came in above average in terms of both production and size/athleticism. Though Samuels is RB-sized rather than TE-sized and my formulas probably aren't penalizing him enough for that; I'm more optimistic about his prospects as a RB than as a TE. Hayden Hurst is a step back from those 3 because he had worse college production.

Dallas Goedert is not included since he went to a non-FBS school and didn't do anything besides the bench at the combine, though he did have big numbers for the Jackrabbits (including 92/1293/11 in 13 games in 2016). He's supposed to work out at his March 30 pro day.

Chris Herndon IV, Jordan Akins, and Troy Fumagalli also got combine invites but didn't work out.

Modifying the rankings a bit to account for what I think my formulas are missing, I'd subjectively divide these guys into three tiers: excited about Gesicki, on board with Andrews, Thomas, Conklin, and Goedert insofar as NFL teams like them, and can't rule out Samuels, Hurst, Herndon, Akins, or Fumagalli. Not much interest in the other guys.

Looking at PFF's draft guide, Troy Fumagalli offers very little after the catch and they have doubts about his athleticism; alongside his decision to skip most of the combine drills that is a bad sign so I'm down on him unless he shows well at his pro day. Tyler Conklin also had poor yards after the catch and ranked outside PFF's top 10 TEs, and Ian Thomas didn't make their top 16 so he didn't even get an individual profile. So, bad news for my "on board with" tier.

At this point Gesicki, Andrews, and Goedert are looking like an obvious top 3, pending Goedert's pro day. I'd consider everyone else in the "can't rule out" tier, with opportunities for Herndon or Akins to move up with a strong pro day.

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@ZWK have you tinkered with samuels at all plugging him in to the different position formulas to see where he’d end up? Do you take rushing stats into consideration for WRs and tes? 

Michel seems pretty love/hate. Some people like him as one of the highest ceiling guys, and others who don’t have him in their top 5 rbs. 

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7 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

@ZWK have you tinkered with samuels at all plugging him in to the different position formulas to see where he’d end up? Do you take rushing stats into consideration for WRs and tes? 

Michel seems pretty love/hate. Some people like him as one of the highest ceiling guys, and others who don’t have him in their top 5 rbs. 

I've been evaluating Samuels as both a RB and as a TE. The RB formulas take into account his receiving stats. On the whole I think they tend to overrate him a bit because his great rushing efficiency stats are partially a result of his weird usage (low rushing volume on misdirection plans like jet sweeps, a high proportion of short yardage carries which winds up boosting some of stats (e.g., first downs per carry, touchdowns per red zone carry) in ways that make him look better in my stats. The TE formulas do not give him any credit for his rushing stats, but they also don't penalize him as much as they probably should for being 5'11.5" 225 lbs.

I feel most optimistic about his fantasy prospects as a RB who gets moved around the formation, although if he gets listed as a TE but used like a slot receiver / gadget guy / RB then that could be good too.

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My RB ratings seem pretty close to done, except for pro day results. In addition to getting elusiveness data from PFF, I've gone back and added missing data. That includes adding RBs who were at the combine who hadn't previously made my spreadsheet, adding size estimates for guys who were missing them and didn't attend the combine, including 2015-16 stats for more RBs, and some other stuff. The main change has been to add a few more names to the last "can't rule them out" tier, and there has also been a bit of reshuffling. Here are how things currently break down:

Saquon Barkley    Penn State
    
Nick Chubb    Georgia
Rashaad Penny    SDSU
    
Royce Freeman    Oregon
Ronald Jones II    USC *
    
Derrius Guice    LSU
Jaylen Samuels    NC State
Josh Adams    Notre Dame *
Bo Scarbrough    Alabama
Kerryon Johnson    Auburn
Sony Michel    Georgia
    
Nyheim Hines    NC State
Chase Edmonds    Fordham #
Ito Smith    USM *
Boston Scott    La Tech *
Ryan Nall    Oregon St
Jordan Wilkins    Miss *
Jeffery Wilson    N Texas *
John Kelly    Tennessee *
Justin Stockton    Texas Tech *
Kalen Ballage    Ariz St

* pending pro day results (don't have accurate athletic info)
# based on athletic testing (don't have FCS stats included)

 

Using my old tier labels (with a new one added on top):

Wow: Barkley
Guys I like a lot: Chubb, Penny
Guys I like: Freeman, Jones
Guys who have a decent chance: Guice, Samuels, Adams, Scarbrough, Johnson, Michel
Guys I can't rule out: Hines, Edmonds, Smith, Scott, Nall, Wilkins, Wilson, Kelly, Stockton, Ballage

So the Ronald Jones and Josh Adams pro days are the main missing data, unless one of the guys in the last tier blows up his pro day.

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23 hours ago, ZWK said:

I generally look at whole seasons of production rather than picking out individual games or small sets of games. In three years at Texas A&M with various quarterbacks and teammates, Kirk never topped 78 receiving yards per game or 31% of his team's receiving production. I'm not that excited about Kirk based on his 4-game stretch to end this season, just like I'm not that excited about Virginia's Andre Levrone based on his 4-game stretch to start the season.

This year Kirk had 51 yd/g and 26% of the Aggies' receiving yards through the first 9 games - bad totals and slightly below average market share. Then Kirk and the A&M passing offense went on a 4-game hot streak and he had 114 yd/g and 31% of the receiving yards over those 4 games - very good totals and slightly above average market share (as the offense was on pace to be #2 in college football in passing yd/g). The 13-game average is 71 yd/g and 28% of the receiving yards - middling for both. If Kirk had kept up the level of production from that 4-game stretch over a full season then he would rate higher, but he didn't this year or any other and I doubt that he would have even if Starkel had been their QB.

But you didn't watch him, did you?

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32 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

Them classifying him as a TE at the combine.

Ok I wouldn't say that's "insistent on pigeonholing" him, they just have to list him at something and I think that's how he was listed in college.  I thought something else had gone down.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I've finally updated my pass rusher spreadsheet to include combine numbers.

Bottom line: enthusiastic thumbs up for Bradley Chubb and Harold Landry, meh on everyone else.

Over the past 3 draft classes, the top 10 pass rushers by my numbers have been:

2016    Emmanuel Ogbah    Okla St
2018    Bradley Chubb    NC State
2017    Myles Garrett    Texas A&M
2017    Jordan Willis    Kansas St
2016    Shaq Lawson    Clemson
2018    Harold Landry    BC
2016    Joey Bosa    Ohio State
2016    Travis Feeney    Washington
2017    Takkarist McKinley    UCLA
2016    Carl Nassib    Penn State

I am basically looking for a combination of athleticism (including size) and production (sacks and tackles for a loss), and Chubb and Landry have both. No one else in this draft class has both, so there is a massive gap after those two.

Leading the best-of-the-rest are Genard Avery (Memphis), Marcus Davenport (UTSA), and Josh Sweat (FSU), who all had strong athleticism but middling production. They are followed by Rasheem Green, Leighton Vander Esch, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Dorance Armstrong Jr., Marquis Haynes, Shaquem Griffin, Harrison Phillips, Sam Hubbard, Hercules Mata'afa, Duke Ejiofor, Uchenna Nwosu, and Arden Key.

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Looking at PFF's draft guide, I might be underrating Genard Avery and Marcus Davenport, who each had excellent pass rushing productivity on a per snap basis. They didn't put up big totals because they didn't rush the passer as often - Avery because he dropped into coverage almost half the time, and Davenport because UTSA faced the fewest plays in the nation. So that creates a tier 2, between the elite prospects (Chubb & Landry) and the pack.

Davenport is widely seen as a first rounder which seems plausible, though I don't think I'd go for him in the top 10. Avery is seen as a day 3 guy (with Zierlein even pegging him as a 4-3 SLB rather than a 3-4 rush OLB) so I don't know what to make of that.

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DJ Moore is neck-and-neck with James Washington for my formula's top WR, which is pretty strange because my formula puts a lot of weight on yards per target and Moore's was terrible. In my Top Rated tab of the 111 WRs that my formula likes most since 2006, only 1 player out of 111 is below 8 YPT (Jarrett Dillard), and DJ Moore will be joining him with 7.95 YPT.

So why does my formula still love Moore? Three things.

First of all, even though he wasn't efficient on a per-target basis, Moore basically was the Terrapins passing offense. He accounted for 53% of their passing yards and 53% of their passing TDs. It's hard to be efficient when the defense knows where the ball is going, and getting force-fed the ball is a good sign about a receiver's skills.

Second of all, the Maryland passing game was generally terrible. Reports before the offseason were that transfer Caleb Henderson is the favorite to win Maryland’s QB job, but he dealt with offseason injuries and never panned out. Tyrell Pigrome was the opening day starter, and tore is ACL during that game. Kasim Hill took over and lasted about a game and a half before tearing his ACL. So Maryland's third or fourth string QB, Max Bortenschlager, led the offense for most of the season, though his preseason profile said "With Pigrome’s experience and explosiveness and Caleb Henderson and Kasim Hill’s skill sets, it’s tough to see exactly where Bortenschlager could find a role for himself." Bortenschlager missed a bit of time too, and the guy below him on the depth chart, walk-on Ryan Brand, wound up throwing more passes than Pigrome+Hill+Henderson combined. On the season, Maryland QBs threw for 6.1 yards per attempt, ranking 119th out of 130, which makes Moore's 7.95 YPT look not so bad actually. That's 80/1033/8 on 130 attempts when throwing to Moore (7.95 YPT) and 95/907/7 on 188 attempts when throwing elsewhere (4.82 YPT).

So we have a guy with a pretty good basic statline (80/1033/8), who accounted for a huge fraction of his team's offense, with efficiency numbers that are poor but much better than his teammates. Not the best production profile, but pretty strong - 8th best in this draft class and above-threshold for my production-first formulas. Other players with a similar production profile include AJ Jenkins (2011), Calvin Johnson (2006), Jermaine Kearse (2010), and Keenan Allen (2012).

Then at the combine, thing three: Moore dominated. Very good speed (4.42) and great explosiveness (39.5" vert, 11'0" broad) with acceptable size (6'0", 210 lbs.). That's a good sign for his game translating to the NFL level. It vaulted him to the top 2 alongside Washington, and ahead of guys with better production but meh athleticism (e.g., Jordan Lasley) or questionable size (e.g., Cedrick Wilson).

And as more advanced stats have come in, they haven't shifted things much - PFF has Moore with above average yards after the catch and a slightly worse than average drop rate, and Matt Harmon's Reception Perception numbers have Moore above average at getting open (though not quite as good as James Washington, which has allowed Washington to edge in front).

Edited by ZWK
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On 3/22/2018 at 4:34 AM, ZWK said:

Over the past 3 draft classes, the top 10 pass rushers by my numbers have been:

2016    Emmanuel Ogbah    Okla St
2018    Bradley Chubb    NC State
2017    Myles Garrett    Texas A&M
2017    Jordan Willis    Kansas St
2016    Shaq Lawson    Clemson
2018    Harold Landry    BC
2016    Joey Bosa    Ohio State
2016    Travis Feeney    Washington
2017    Takkarist McKinley    UCLA
2016    Carl Nassib    Penn State

Two questions.

1)  Ogbah tested out slightly better than Chubb in all but his bench.  How do you compare the two?  

2.) Would you take Chubb for the Browns?

 Browns have the bolded players and many are clamoring for them to take Chubb with the 4th pick of the upcoming draft..

Carl Nassib saw the most PT with over 60% of the defensive snaps at DE.  Ogbah and Garrett were injured for parts of last year and only played together for 3 games (combined for 6 sacks in those 3 games).  Greg  Williams likes Nassib and would not bench him, he is going to use him.

Sub packages are used a very-small amount of the time meaning only two and sometimes one will be on the field at a time.

The Browns have used three high picks (1st overall last year for Garrett and 2nd (Obah) and 3rd round (Nassib) two years ago and they just signed a DE from Cincinnati.

Considering the 3 high picks and that Chubb would be sitting for over 50% of the snaps would you take Bradley Chubb knowing that he will cost the 4th pick of the draft or use that pick on a different player who would be utilized more or even trade down and pick up a boat load of picks from a QB needy team and get at least one player at a position of greater need?

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I think the Browns should draft a QB at 1 and try to trade down from 4, but that is mostly based on general philosophy rather than the specific players in this draft class. Going out and getting your QB is worth a lot, so it's worth the #1 pick in this class. Trading down is generally a good idea (especially if a team is willing to pay up anywhere close to how the Jets did for #3) unless it means missing out on a QB that you need.

But if Cleveland does take a player at 4 then Chubb seems like a strong option - he's a contender for best non-QB prospect in this draft class, especially if you account for positional value. Garrett, Ogbah, and Nassib all looked like good prospects, but I think that Garrett was the only one who played really well in 2017 (especially in pass rushing - Nassib has been solid against the run). So if Chubb is Pro Bowl caliber then he should be a major upgrade to their line, and especially to their pass rush. And if they do manage to end up with 3 really good DEs, they should all be able to get a solid chunk of playing time between rotations and injuries (look at the Eagles, for example). If all 4 are at least pretty good then maybe they trade one away or maybe they just enjoy the depth for a season or two. Nassib & Ogbah are only under contract for the next 2 years so it would just be a short-term log-jam.

The Chris Smith signing does seem like a sign that they aren't planning to draft Chubb, and a mistake if they are planning to draft him. It's also a reminder that depth matters - it tells us something about how much teams value their 4th DE.

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Football Outsiders' stats-based QB ratings, QBASE, are unsurprisingly high on Mayfield and not very excited about anyone else:

1480    Baker Mayfield
656    Lamar Jackson
623    Josh Rosen
412    Sam Darnold
343    Mason Rudolph
277    Luke Falk
273    Kyle Lauletta
-83    Josh Allen

These ratings take projected draft position into account, otherwise Mason Rudolph would be higher.

Football Outsiders has also published their stats-based WR ratings, Playmaker Score, but it's currently only available on ESPN Insider. Bottom line is that they aren't that high on any WRs this year, and DJ Moore leads the pack.

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1 hour ago, ZWK said:

Football Outsiders' stats-based QB ratings, QBASE, are unsurprisingly high on Mayfield and not very excited about anyone else:

1480    Baker Mayfield
656    Lamar Jackson
623    Josh Rosen
412    Sam Darnold
343    Mason Rudolph
277    Luke Falk
273    Kyle Lauletta
-83    Josh Allen

These ratings take projected draft position into account, otherwise Mason Rudolph would be higher.

Football Outsiders has also published their stats-based WR ratings, Playmaker Score, but it's currently only available on ESPN Insider. Bottom line is that they aren't that high on any WRs this year, and DJ Moore leads the pack.

Thanks so much for sharing this @ZWK

Do you by chance have comparative scores for QBASE and Playmaker for QBs and WRs from the previous 2-3 years?  Curious how these guys compare in these rating systems to previous prospects 

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29 minutes ago, Longtucky Lemmings said:

Thanks so much for sharing this @ZWK

Do you by chance have comparative scores for QBASE and Playmaker for QBs and WRs from the previous 2-3 years?  Curious how these guys compare in these rating systems to previous prospects 

Mayfield is QBASE's top quarterback of the past several draft classes. I don't have things compiled, but you can go through Football Outsiders' QBASE articles from 2018, 2017, 2016, etc.

I don't have the numbers yet for this year's Playmaker Score because of the ESPN paywall, but here is how it ranked all the 2014-17 WRs.

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Yards per target is heavily impacted by completion percentage and bad QBs can also suppress yards/catch .  So crappy QBs are going to suppress YPT -- without having anything to do with the WR.  Yards/catch is a better efficiency measure IMO, and something like a minimum market share or minimum volume requirement can be used to keep it honest (there's typically a small decline in efficiency as volume rises).

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2 hours ago, ZWK said:

Mayfield is QBASE's top quarterback of the past several draft classes. I don't have things compiled, but you can go through Football Outsiders' QBASE articles from 2018, 2017, 2016, etc.

I don't have the numbers yet for this year's Playmaker Score because of the ESPN paywall, but here is how it ranked all the 2014-17 WRs.

Thanks man.  Can't say enough how much I appreciate you and all you do for these boards.

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Updates on pro days through March 27:

On 3/11/2018 at 8:40 PM, ZWK said:

There are more pro days that are coming up where we might get info on other guys who didn't run the 40 at the combine (or who are missing other relevant data). Here's a list:

RB Kerryon Johnson (Auburn pro day March 9) nfldraftscout has him at a 4.52 forty
WR Dante Pettis (sat out Washington pro day March 10, plans to run sometime) plans to work out April 2
TE Troy Fumagalli (Wisconsin pro day is March 14) didn't work out at Wisconsin's pro day
RB John Kelly (Tennessee pro day is March 19) nfldraftscout has him at a 4.64 forty
WR DaeSean Hamilton (Penn State pro day is March 20) nfldraftscout has him at a 4.52 forty, 10'3" broad
RB Ronald Jones II (USC pro day is March 21) sat out the USC pro day, plans to work out sometime before the draft
WR Deontay Burnett (USC pro day is March 21) sat out the USC pro day, plans to work out April 12
QB Sam Darnold (USC pro day is March 21) threw at USC's pro day but no one clocked the mph of his passes as far as I know
RB Josh Adams (Notre Dame pro day is March 22) reports are that he had a 4.48 forty, 34" vert, 10'2"  broad
RB Boston Scott (Louisiana Tech pro day is March 22) reports are that he had a 4.40 forty, 38.5" vert, 10'1" broad
RB Justin Stockton (Texas Tech pro day is March 23) reports are that he had a 4.48 forty
RB Jordan Wilkins (Mississippi pro day is March 27) reports are that he had a 4.51 forty, 37" vert, 10'3" broad

Also, reports are that WR Daurice Fountain had a 4.46 forty, 42.5" vert, 11'2" broad.

Bottom line: good news for Josh Adams, Boston Scott, and Daurice Fountain. Bad news for John Kelly.

These 40 times are the ones that were reported. My guess is that they tend to run a little fast, so for my ratings I'll add an additional 0.02 on top of the number given here to nfldraftscout forty times and 0.05 to forty times from other sources. I'll been taking jumps and agility drills as reported.

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49 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Going to put this in here... Mayfield looks like he's head and shoulders above everyone else to me.  Darnold looks like maybe yes, maybe no.  Glad I don't have to make a call on him.  I wouldn't draft any of the other three.

I'm curious why you're down on Lamar Jackson - it looks like he's the QB that we differ the most on. For me, his rushing production is sufficient to make me interested in him, as long as he's a top 40 NFL pick. And his college passing production was good enough for it to seem reasonable for him to be a top 40 NFL pick.

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2 minutes ago, ZWK said:

I'm curious why you're down on Lamar Jackson - it looks like he's the QB that we differ the most on. For me, his rushing production is sufficient to make me interested in him, as long as he's a top 40 NFL pick. And his college passing production was good enough for it to seem reasonable for him to be a top 40 NFL pick.

Because if I'm going to draft an ~inaccurate running QB I want to know he can run against NFL defenses sufficiently to make the defense adjust.  Maybe he can, but the fact that he didn't run at the combine or his Pro Day = let someone else figure it out.  And even if he can run, he's fairly frail compared to all his best comps (Tyrod, Vick, Kaep).

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6 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Because if I'm going to draft an ~inaccurate running QB I want to know he can run against NFL defenses sufficiently to make the defense adjust.  Maybe he can, but the fact that he didn't run at the combine or his Pro Day = let someone else figure it out.  And even if he can run, he's fairly frail compared to all his best comps (Tyrod, Vick, Kaep).

He was up to 213 at his pro day. Rumor is he’s trying to get above 220 and it may also have been the reason he didn’t run. I.E. he’s focused on being a QB. He ran for 1500 yards twice. Even if he was Keenan Reynolds, QB’s don’t just do that unathletically.

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39 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Because if I'm going to draft an ~inaccurate running QB I want to know he can run against NFL defenses sufficiently to make the defense adjust.  Maybe he can, but the fact that he didn't run at the combine or his Pro Day = let someone else figure it out.  And even if he can run, he's fairly frail compared to all his best comps (Tyrod, Vick, Kaep).

Oh please

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6 hours ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:
6 hours ago, ZWK said:

I'm curious why you're down on Lamar Jackson - it looks like he's the QB that we differ the most on. For me, his rushing production is sufficient to make me interested in him, as long as he's a top 40 NFL pick. And his college passing production was good enough for it to seem reasonable for him to be a top 40 NFL pick.

Because if I'm going to draft an ~inaccurate running QB I want to know he can run against NFL defenses sufficiently to make the defense adjust.  Maybe he can, but the fact that he didn't run at the combine or his Pro Day = let someone else figure it out.  And even if he can run, he's fairly frail compared to all his best comps (Tyrod, Vick, Kaep).

For me, being a top 40 NFL pick covers the "let someone else figure it out" part - if NFL teams think that he's good enough to draft there, then I guess he has at least a decent shot of holding down a starting job. That should be enough for him to be at least borderline startable in fantasy, and his upside as a fantasy QB is as high as anyone's. The upper echelons of career QB fantasy production contains a bunch of Hall of Famers plus Cunningham and Culpepper. I'm willing to accept some extra uncertainty/concerns (like no 40 and a below-ideal BMI) for a QB that can run like Jackson has.

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Different strokes.

FWIW, if he's got legit breakaway speed I think he looks a lot like Robert Griffin.  If not he looks a lot like a ~better version of Teddy Bridgewater (assuming 1st round).

The ~10% sack rate is also concerning even for a guy who runs around a lot though.  He's certainly not built to take a lot of hits from NFL defenders.

Happy to be wrong about him, but he won't be on any of my rosters.

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Football Outsiders now has their Playmaker Score article up on their site. Here are the top 100 WRs since 2014 according to their Playmaker Rating (which ignores projected draft position - they also have a projection which takes projected draft position into account). The top 100 includes 19 WRs from this draft class who I've put in bold below. It continues the themes of mediocrity and disagreement surrounding this year's WR class, though they do agree with DJ Moore as a 1st round talent.

2016    Corey Coleman    Baylor
2017    Jalen Robinette    Air Force
2017    Curtis Samuel    Ohio State
2017    Carlos Henderson    Louisiana Tech
2017    John Ross    Washington
2014    Brandin Cooks    Oregon St.
2015    Amari Cooper    Alabama
2016    Will Fuller    Notre Dame
2017    Dede Westbrook    Oklahoma
2014    Odell Beckham Jr.    LSU
2018    Tre'Quan Smith    Central Florida
2018    D.J. Moore    Maryland
2018    Richie James    Middle Tennessee State

2014    Marqise Lee    USC
2017    Corey Davis    Western Michigan
2015    Sammie Coates    Auburn
2016    Tyler Boyd    Pittsburgh
2015    Stefon Diggs    Maryland
2016    Pharoh Cooper    South Carolina
2016    Rashard Higgins    Colorado State
2014    Davante Adams    Fresno St.
2015    Nelson Agholor    Southern California
2014    Allen Robinson    Penn St.
2014    Paul Richardson    Colorado
2014    Kelvin Benjamin    Florida St.
2015    Breshad Perriman    UCF
2017    Chris Godwin    Penn State
2014    Mike Evans    Texas A&M
2014    Austin Franklin    New Mexico St.
2015    DeAndre Smelter    Georgia Tech
2017    K.D. Cannon    Baylor
2015    Titus Davis    Central Mich.
2017    Isaiah Ford    Virginia Tech
2014    Martavis Bryant    Clemson
2016    Roger Lewis    Bowling Green
2017    Josh Reynolds    Texas A&M
2014    Sammy Watkins    Clemson
2014    Willie Snead    Ball St.
2018    Courtland Sutton    SMU
2018    Byron Pringle    Kansas State

2014    Bruce Ellington    South Carolina
2017    Shelton Gibson    West Virginia
2014    Jarvis Landry    LSU
2015    Jaelen Strong    Arizona St.
2015    Tyler Lockett    Kansas St.
2014    Donte Moncrief    Ole Miss
2017    Malachi Dupre    LSU
2016    Michael Thomas    Ohio State
2017    JuJu Smith-Schuster    Southern California
2016    Demarcus Ayers    Houston
2017    Taywan Taylor    W. Kentucky
2017    Josh Malone    Tennessee
2017    Jerome Lane    Akron
2016    Bralon Addison    Oregon
2018    Korey Robertson    Southern Mississippi
2018    Anthony Miller    Memphis

2017    Isaiah McKenzie    Georgia
2018    Christian Kirk    Texas A&M
2018    Jordan Lasley    UCLA

2014    Cody Latimer    Indiana
2018    Equanimeous St. Brown    Notre Dame
2016    Leonte Carroo    Rutgers
2015    Devin Smith    Ohio St.
2017    ArDarius Stewart    Alabama
2014    Brandon Coleman    Rutgers
2018    Cedrick Wilson    Boise State
2014    Josh Huff    Oregon
2017    Kenny Golladay    Northern Illinois
2015    Devin Funchess    Michigan
2018    Deontay Burnett    Southern California
2018    Quadree Henderson    Pittsburgh

2016    Sterling Shepard    Oklahoma
2017    Mike Williams    Clemson
2016    Josh Doctson    TCU
2018    Michael Gallup    Colorado State
2018    James Washington    Oklahoma State
2018    Auden Tate    Florida State

2015    Darren Waller    Georgia Tech
2016    Laquon Treadwell    Mississippi
2018    Calvin Ridley    Alabama
2017    Chad Hansen    California
2018    D.J. Chark    LSU
2015    Dorial Green-Beckham    Missouri
2015    Tony Lippett    Michigan St.
2014    Damian Copeland    Louisville
2014    Jordan Matthews    Vanderbilt
2014    Jeremy Gallon    Michigan
2017    Travis Rudolph    Florida State
2015    Antwan Goodley    Baylor
2016    Demarcus Robinson    Florida
2017    Keevan Lucas    Tulsa
2015    Phillip Dorsett    Miami (FL)
2016    Jalin Marshall    Ohio State
2015    Ty Montgomery    Stanford
2014    Josh Stewart    Oklahoma St.
2016    Mike Thomas    Southern Miss.
2014    Tevin Reese    Baylor
2018    Simmie Cobbs    Indiana
2017    Devante Noil    Texas A&M
2016    Cayleb Jones    Arizona

@Longtucky Lemmings

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Now with all the pro days done:

On 3/11/2018 at 8:40 PM, ZWK said:

RB Kerryon Johnson (Auburn pro day March 9) nfldraftscout has him at a 4.52 forty
TE Troy Fumagalli (Wisconsin pro day is March 14) didn't work out
RB John Kelly (Tennessee pro day is March 19) nfldraftscout has him at a 4.64 forty
WR DaeSean Hamilton (Penn State pro day is March 20) nfldraftscout has him at a 4.52 forty, 10'3" broad
QB Sam Darnold (USC pro day is March 21) threw at USC's pro day but no one clocked the mph of his passes as far as I know
RB Josh Adams (Notre Dame pro day is March 22) nfldraftscout has him at a 4.51 forty, 34" vert, 10'2" broad
RB Boston Scott (Louisiana Tech pro day is March 22) nfldraftscout has him at a 4.40 forty, 38.5" vert, 10'1" broad, 6.67 3cone, 4.15 ss
RB Justin Stockton (Texas Tech pro day is March 23) reports are that he had a 4.48 forty
RB Jordan Wilkins (Mississippi pro day is March 27) reports are that he had a 4.51 forty, 37" vert, 10'3" broad
WR Daurice Fountain reports are that he had a 4.46 forty, 42.5" vert, 11'2" broad
TE Chris Herndon IV (Miami pro day is March 28) didn't work out, still recovering from MCL injury
TE Jordan Akins (UCF pro day is March 29) reports are that he skipped the forty, and had a 35" vert, 10'2" broad, 29 reps
QB Lamar Jackson (Louisville pro day is March 29) didn't work out
WR Darren Carrington II (Utah pro day is March 29) reports are that he ran a 4.78 forty but he might not have been healthy yet
RB Ito Smith (USM pro day is March 29) reports are that he had a 4.45-4.54 forty, 37.5" vert
WR Thomas Owens (FIU pro day is March 29) I haven't found any reports of his pro day numbers
TE Dallas Goedert (South Dakota State pro day is March 30) reports are that he had a 35" vert, 10'1" broad, 6.87 3cone, 4.06 ss
RB Jeffery Wilson (North Texas pro day is March 30) reports are that he had a 4.56 forty, 35" vert, 9'2" broad
WR Dante Pettis (April 2 pro day) reports are that he had a 4.48 forty, 36" vert, 10'5" broad
WR Anthony Miller (Memphis pro day is April 3) reports are that he had a 4.46-4.52 or mid-4.5s forty, 39" vert
RB Ronald Jones II (April 5 pro day) reports are that he had a 4.48 or 4.56 forty, 9'6" broad, but he might not have been healthy yet
WR Deontay Burnett (April 5 pro day) reports are that he had a 4.70 or 4.76 forty, 30.5" vert, 10'1" broad, but he might not have been healthy yet

TE (previous discussion here): Goedert and Akins both had pretty strong pro days, even though they skipped the 40 (which is the most informative drill). They both jumped well, and Goedert had very good times in the agility drills. Herndon & Fumagalli didn't work out. Goedert is tricky to evaluate because of FCS and no 40 time, but I'm basically on board with the buzz (though I like Gesicki even more). Akins and Herndon both seem like decent fliers.

QB (pre-combine discussion here): I wish I had a 40 time for Jackson and passing velocity numbers for Darnold. It's a slight negative to be missing those data, but doesn't move the needle that much for either of them. (More discussion of Jackson earlier on this page.)

WR (previous ranking here): Hamilton, Pettis, and Miller had middle-of-the-pack, roughly-as-expected numbers and don't get move much. Miller is the only one of the three that I have much interest in, unless you get points for returns from Pettis. (And Matt Harmon is high on Hamilton - seems like he might have more NFL value as a slot receiver than fantasy value.) Carrington and Burnett had lousy pro days, with possible injury excuses. They looked bad enough as prospects for this to make them basically undraftable for me. Daurice Fountain had middling production in the FCS but a huge pro day; seems like a decent flier.

RB (previous discussion here): Ronald Jones's mediocre pro day numbers drop him from the "Guys I like" tier to the "Guys who have a decent chance" tier, although the fact that he might not have been 100% makes me a little more optimistic than his numbers show. Josh Adams had a pretty good pro day but stays on the "decent chance" tier. Boston Scott moves up from the "Guys I can't rule out" tier to the "decent chance" tier with a strong pro day, though he is undersized and will probably be in more of a Woodhead / Chris Thompson sort of role. None of the other guys helped themselves much.

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Football Outsiders has their BackCAST RB ratings out, behind an ESPN paywall for now.

The gist: they see Saquon Barkley as a generational prospect, then after a sizeable gap there's a tier of solid prospects in Royce Freeman, Derrius Guice, Rashaad Penny, Nick Chubb, and Ronald Jones II. They aren't that high on anyone else, including Sony Michel & Kerryon Johnson.

This broadly matches up with what my formula is saying, except my formula is a bit higher on Chubb and a bit lower on Guice & Jones. I think my opinions on this batch of players are closer to their formula than to mine.

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On 3/22/2018 at 1:34 AM, ZWK said:

I've finally updated my pass rusher spreadsheet to include combine numbers.

Bottom line: enthusiastic thumbs up for Bradley Chubb and Harold Landry, meh on everyone else.

Over the past 3 draft classes, the top 10 pass rushers by my numbers have been:

2016    Emmanuel Ogbah    Okla St
2018    Bradley Chubb    NC State
2017    Myles Garrett    Texas A&M
2017    Jordan Willis    Kansas St
2016    Shaq Lawson    Clemson
2018    Harold Landry    BC
2016    Joey Bosa    Ohio State
2016    Travis Feeney    Washington
2017    Takkarist McKinley    UCLA
2016    Carl Nassib    Penn State

I am basically looking for a combination of athleticism (including size) and production (sacks and tackles for a loss), and Chubb and Landry have both. No one else in this draft class has both, so there is a massive gap after those two.

Leading the best-of-the-rest are Genard Avery (Memphis), Marcus Davenport (UTSA), and Josh Sweat (FSU), who all had strong athleticism but middling production. They are followed by Rasheem Green, Leighton Vander Esch, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Dorance Armstrong Jr., Marquis Haynes, Shaquem Griffin, Harrison Phillips, Sam Hubbard, Hercules Mata'afa, Duke Ejiofor, Uchenna Nwosu, and Arden Key.

On 3/22/2018 at 3:50 PM, ZWK said:

Looking at PFF's draft guide, I might be underrating Genard Avery and Marcus Davenport, who each had excellent pass rushing productivity on a per snap basis. They didn't put up big totals because they didn't rush the passer as often - Avery because he dropped into coverage almost half the time, and Davenport because UTSA faced the fewest plays in the nation. So that creates a tier 2, between the elite prospects (Chubb & Landry) and the pack.

Davenport is widely seen as a first rounder which seems plausible, though I don't think I'd go for him in the top 10. Avery is seen as a day 3 guy (with Zierlein even pegging him as a 4-3 SLB rather than a 3-4 rush OLB) so I don't know what to make of that.

Football Outsiders SackSEER pass rusher ratings are out. Their take is that there aren't any elite pass rushing prospects this year. They see 4 good prospects: Josh Sweat, Marcus Davenport, Harold Landry, and Bradley Chubb (close together and in that order, until they take projected draft spot into account which reshuffles them and knocks Sweat down the rankings).

I basically agree with their list - all 4 of those guys made my top 5 - but am a bit higher on Chubb & Landry than they are. The other guy in my top 5 (Genard Avery) isn't in their listing, I guess because some folks are calling him a 4-3 SLB rather than an edge rusher.

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From Matt Harmon's charting data on 11 WR prospects (behind a paywall), Courtland Sutton and Anthony Miller are the two WRs who got double covered most often last year. Over the past 3 draft classes, the most frequently double covered WRs are John Ross, Taywan Taylor, Courtland Sutton, Corey Davis, and Anthony Miller (list continued here).

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Pre-draft RB rankings, by formula (previous ranking here).

I'm hoping that nfldraftscout will eventually update to include numbers for Ronald Jones's pro day workout (since other sources disagree with each other by a fair amount), but other than that I don't anticipate any new information that will change these. For context I've ranked them among the previous 5 draft classes of prospects.

Saquon Barkley    2018
    
Eddie Lacy    2013
    
Todd Gurley    2015
Nick Chubb    2018
Melvin Gordon    2015
Christine Michael    2013
Carlos Hyde    2014
Ezekiel Elliott    2016
Rashaad Penny    2018
    
Joe Mixon    2017
Lache Seastrunk    2014
Jay Ajayi    2015
Tre Mason    2014
Giovani Bernard    2013
Ameer Abdullah    2015
Knile Davis    2013
Royce Freeman    2018
Derrick Henry    2016
Dalvin Cook    2017
Curtis Samuel    2017
Darius Jackson    2016
    
Jeremy Hill    2014
C.J. Prosise    2016
Christian McCaffrey    2017
Jerick McKinnon    2014
Kenneth Dixon    2016
    
Jonathan Franklin    2013
Tevin Coleman    2015
Jordan Howard    2016
Duke Johnson    2015
Alvin Kamara    2017
Samaje Perine    2017
Bishop Sankey    2014
DeAndre Washington    2016
David Johnson    2015
D’Onta Foreman    2017
Marcus Lattimore    2013
Jeremy McNichols    2017
Jaylen Samuels    2018
Aaron Jones    2017
Jhurell Pressley    2016
Stephen Houston    2014
Daniel Lasco    2016
Henry Josey    2014
Zac Stacy    2013
Josh Adams    2018
D.J. Harper    2013
Ronald Jones II    2018
Le'Veon Bell    2013
Derrius Guice    2018
Kareem Hunt    2017
Cierre Wood    2013
Kenjon Barner    2013
Paul Perkins    2016
Montee Ball    2013
Latavius Murray    2013
Isaiah Crowell    2014
Leonard Fournette    2017
Andre Williams    2014
Marlon Mack    2017
Boston Scott    2018
Charles Sims    2014
Joe Williams    2017
Dri Archer    2014
Elijah Hood    2017
Alex Collins    2016
James Conner    2017
Kerryon Johnson    2018
Devonta Freeman    2014
Bo Scarbrough    2018
David Cobb    2015
Devontae Booker    2016
Matt Breida    2017
    
T.J. Yeldon    2015
Sony Michel    2018
Cameron Artis-Payne    2015
Karlos Williams    2015
Josh Robinson    2015
I'Tavius Mathers    2017
Corey Grant    2015
Ito Smith    2018
Kenyan Drake    2016
David Fluellen    2014
Jamaal Williams    2017
Treavor Scales    2013
Jeremy Langford    2015
Elijah McGuire    2017
Michael Ford    2013
Robert Godhigh    2014
Matthew Tucker    2013
Nyheim Hines    2018
Mike Davis    2015
George Atkinson III    2014
Keith Marshall    2016
Terrance West    2014
Anthony Wales    2017
Teriyon Gipson    2017
Brian Hill    2017
Larry Rose III    2018
Michael Dyer    2015
Wendell Smallwood    2016
Wayne Gallman    2017
Tim Cornett    2014
Jonathan Williams    2016
Justin Stockton    2018
C.J. Anderson    2013
Chase Edmonds    2018
Andre Ellington    2013
James White    2014
Stanley Boom Williams    2017
Jordan Wilkins    2018
De'Anthony Thomas    2014
Lorenzo Taliaferro    2014
Christopher Carson    2017
Tyler Ervin    2016
Ryan Nall    2018
Kalen Ballage    2018
Jeffery Wilson    2018

With tier labels:

Wow: Barkley
Guys I like a lot: Chubb, Penny
Guys I like: Freeman
Guys who have a decent chance: Samuels, Adams, Jones, Guice, Scott, Johnson, Scarbrough
Guys I can't rule out: Michel, Smith, Hines, Rose, Stockton, Edmonds, Wilkins, Nall, Ballage, Wilson
Below the cut (not listed): everyone else including John Kelly

For discussion, it seems more informative to break them out into categories instead of going by tier:

Thumbs up: Barkley, Chubb, Penny, Freeman. They're spread across a few tiers, all "guys I like" or better. I like them at or above where other people are talking about them going in the NFL draft (fantasy drafts seem more in line with how I see them).

Guys my formula is down on, relative to consensus: Johnson, Michel, Guice, Jones. Their excuses, from best excuse to worst: Jones wasn't 100% yet at his pro day (hence his unimpressive workout numbers), Guice was playing injured in 2017 (hence his large decline in production from 2016), Michel shared a backfield with a great RB (hence his modest workload), and Kerryon Johnson has no excuse for his lousy production (by standard stats or advanced stats). So I'm basically avoiding Johnson, Michel I am not going to take near where he's rated, and Guice & Jones I might take in the neighborhood of where they're typically rated.

Favorite sleepers: Samuels, Adams, Scott, Scarbrough. Adams has a pretty good but not great profile; the other guys all have some very strong points but also a limited workload and other downsides. Samuels: great rushing efficiency numbers & receiving production but weird role and unclear if he's even a RB. Scott: great elusiveness and very good athleticism, small size and almost never saw the field before his age 21 redshirt junior season. Scarbrough: great size & athleticism, middling efficiency.

Undersized speedy sleepers: Smith, Hines, Rose, Stockton. Hines ran a 4.38 40 at the combine, nfldraftscout has the other 3 in the 4.42-4.45 range at their pro days (which is probably still equivalent to sub 4.50 at the combine). 3 of these guys are around 200 lbs., Rose is 192. The optimistic case for these guys is CThompson/JWhite/Woodhead. Hines was the worst receiver of the bunch according to PFF.

Deep sleepers: Edmonds, Wilkins, Nall, Ballage, Wilson. Not much optimism about these guys. Edmonds is non-FBS and so is rated just on his combine, not his production, so there is more uncertainty with him (and thus more of a chance of him being a decent prospect).

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Why is Derrick Henry not higher? Heisman, gaudy stats, size and power, high average...I would figure he's pretty high. I clicked and you mentioned elusiveness grade from PFF. I don't know what that is but would assume he's low there.

Sankey was the top RB and first RB taken during a weak draft for RBs. I understand him lower but to a point. 

Leonard Fournette is a million times better than Andre Williams. Do ya think his ranking is off?

Where are you at evaluating and tweaking your system?

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