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RB Austin Ekeler, WAS (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ketamine Dreams
- Start date
Tau837
Footballguy
Not true for Ekeler:
- He averaged 10.8 YPR last season, compared to 4.2 YPC. So he will need ~2.5 times as many carries as targets to break even on yardage.
- He had 3 rushing TDs on 132 attempts. He had 8 receiving TDs on 108 targets. These ratios are not even close. There could be some randomness there, but all 3 years of his career have shown this disparity at some level.
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In terms of PPR fantasy production, based on last year, he'd need to average 27 rushing attempts per game, which would put him at 405 rushing attempts heading into week 17, to equal the fantasy production he got on 5.8 receptions/6.75 targets per game.
He’s really good. I still worry about the Chargers drafting someone. They were linked to Ronald Jones a few years ago and went away from him some when Gordon came back. I’ve made some covert trade offers for high value in return with no success on selling him right now (non-PPR). If it was a PPR I’d probably be more apt to hold.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
BoltBacker
Footballguy
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Unless they pass less, and punt more.
I'm not a Tyrod Taylor hater but they are much less likely to get in the RedZone as often as they have in the past. And if a rookie gets into that mix...... good luck.
Faust
MVP
I'm not typically a fan of paying RB's, but this is a very good deal. Ekeler is the best pass catching RB in the NFL, and is a solid enough rusher. I'd certainly rather have Ekeler at this amount than Zeke at his.
My gut says Melvin Gordon gets a bigger deal, just because teams tend to grossly overpay FA's, versus re-signing guys before they hit FA. But, boy, it'd be interesting if he didn't. I do credit the Chargers for realizing who the better RB is though.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Its shocking to me that Ekeler signed so cheap. Rb is devalued but that's backup money. Good for him if that's where he wants to stay but seems he could have done better.
I'm guessing he saw what happened with Gordon, and figured he better strike when the iron is hot.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
I tend to agree with this but he was an undrafted RB out of nowhere....but when I say nowhere I mean my hometown.....dude has been in my living room and grew up with both my son and daughter.....I reffed his football and basketball games since middle school.....has always been underestimated but then ends up being the best player on the field....out of high school over looked by every college as a RB and they wanted him to play a different position.....Western College was the only one that said ok come in and play RB....and he dominated....the rest is history and well deserved.....not many have worked harder....but I can understand why he took a deal that he maybe could have done a little better on....only 24 right now and when this one is over, may still have another pay day....so happy for him.....
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Tau837
Footballguy
IMO it is a win-win deal.
It is good for the Chargers because it is probably structured something like this: $6M signing bonus, base salaries of $3M, $4M, $5M, $6.5M. If so:
- His 2020 cap hit will be just slightly less than the 2020 1st round tender amount.
- His $15M guaranteed will be done after the 2021 season, so they can trade or release him then with $3M in dead money or after the 2022 season with $1.5M in dead money. Not that they will want to, but the flexibility is there.
- They get a very talented RB not on a rookie contract for an average of ~$6M per year, and probably truly less, since the last year can be eliminated easily.
- He avoids the risk that he gets injured and it lowers his market value.
- He avoids the risk that the change from Rivers to Tyrod/Stick/rookie QB reduces his numbers quite a bit, which lowers his market value.
- I think the Chargers will likely draft a RB, because they need more than just Ekeler and Jackson. This means he avoids the risk that the guy they draft plays well enough to reduce Ekeler's role, which lowers his market value.
- He has made $1.67M in 3 seasons. He just signed for a guaranteed $15M. That is huge for him and his family.
- He is almost 25. Signing this deal now rather than hitting the open market next season makes it at least slightly more likely he can sign a lucrative third contract, since that contract would come a year sooner.
rschroeder1
Footballguy
While I'm not a Chargers fan, for some reason I always seem to have an inordinate number of Chargers on my fantasy teams, and I've always appreciated your insights over the years.
I was wondering if you could elaborate on your point on the new QB reducing Ekeler's numbers. Do you see this as a product of any other QB not throwing to RBs as much as Rivers has, or just a general downgrade for the offense itself?
I generally think Ekeler probably hit his max fantasy value last year, in particular because he scored an unsustainable number of long touchdowns. Beyond this, I'm not sure where I fall on him for 2020. He could be a check down god with a struggling offense, but I'm not sure if that will translate to the same level of receiving yards.
Tau837
Footballguy
I kind of addressed it in some scattered posts above, but gathering my thoughts here.rschroeder1 said:
Right now, the most likely starting QB in 2020 is Tyrod/Stick/rookie, where rookie would not be Burrow. Beyond 2021 is impossible to predict, but it seems likely that their QB situation has been downgraded for the short term and maybe for several years. Impossible to know when they will again have a QB as good as Rivers. They could draft the next Mahomes this year or they could go through a decade of trying different options that don't work out.
Because I think the most likely starting QB in 2020 is Tyrod/Stick/rookie, I think passing attempts will be down considerably. The Chargers were tied for #10 with 597 pass attempts last season. Current Chargers HC Anthony Lynn was together with Tyrod as the starter in Buffalo. Here are the passing attempts for those teams:
- In 2015, Lynn was the assistant HC and RB coach. Buffalo attempted 465 passes, #31 in the league.
- In 2016, Lynn was the OC. Buffalo attempted 474 passes, #32 in the league.
- In 2013, the Jets attempted 480 passes, #29 in the league.
- In 2014, the Jets attempted 498 passes, #27 in the league.
I think Lynn wants a low volume passing, high volume rushing offense. That means a reduced number of targets and increased number of rushing attempts for the skill players in the offense, assuming they can be successful enough to execute that (i.e., not getting far behind early and often).
Then you have to evaluate the quality of the targets. I am the biggest Rivers fan in this forum, and no doubt I think more highly of him than many others, even coming out of the 2019 season. But I doubt anyone would dispute that he has been a great QB for RB receiving value. He is well known for being accurate, throwing with anticipation, throwing with touch, and being good at reading the defense and finding mismatches. He has always thrown successfully to his RBs (e.g., Tomlinson, Sproles, Mathews, Woodhead, Gordon, Ekeler). Certainly, that is a talented group, but Rivers also deserves credit for consistently giving them high quality targets, and a lot of them. I think the quality of the targets post-Rivers will be reduced considerably.
Plus, Rivers was obviously willing to take deep shots (sometimes too willing). It seems possible that defenses will feel more comfortable playing more defenders closer to the line of scrimmage with the new QB. That could also impact Ekeler, both as a rusher and receiver.
So, fewer targets, and lower quality targets at that, suggests to me that Ekeler won't repeat his strong receiving performance going forward. I doubt he will come close. And, while he is also a good runner, he will be in a committee for rushing purposes, which may limit his upside there.
Lynn basically said some things along these lines at the combine, when he called Ekeler a "tandem back" and said he sees him as being better when paired with other RB(s). He later backed off that statement, but he said it, and I think that is probably what he really thinks.
I still believe in Ekeler's talent, but I think his situation will be much worse going forward, and that will seriously reduce his fantasy prospects. I suspect it would be hard to "sell high" at this point in dynasty, but I would if I could. But I wouldn't sell him low, I would hold.
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ShamrockPride
Footballguy
I'm an Ekeler owner and certainly hope I'm wrong, but I think people are going to be chasing last year's stats. He'll never get within 200 REC yards of last year again and catches will drop without Rivers. Phil had a horrible arm at that point in his career last year combined with that terrible shortarm throwing motion. He was a checkdown machine.
Fear The Turtle
Footballguy
Just heard an interview with Ekeler: intelligent, articulate, humorous, self-effacing... I'm a fan.
Faust
MVP
Los Angeles Chargers: Why Austin Ekeler will regress in 2020 (FanSided article — autoplay video warning)
Tau837
Footballguy
Doesn't seem like the author invested much effort in this article.
- No mention that Chargers HC Lynn was the BUF OC in 2016 when Tyrod was there, making 2016 a natural comparison for the 2020 Chargers offense.
- Says Whisenhunt has been OC since 2016, without mentioning he was fired midseason last year and replaced with current OC Steichen.
- No mention of the likelihood of a significant reduction in pass attempts and the expected effect of that on Ekeler's receiving production.
- No mention that in McCoy's two top 10 finishes in 2016-2017, he averaged ~260 carries per season, but Ekeler's career high is 132 (last season).
Deamon
Footballguy
RB19 seems criminally low. I agree he will regress, but RB19?!
Right now I'm seeing his ADP as RB7-11 in PPR, and RB12-15 in standard.
rschroeder1
Footballguy
Ekeler's passing stats from last year seem utterly unsustainable to me. 108 targets and 92/993/8. A few things stick out:
- Ekeler had four touchdown catches of 30 yards or more. No doubt part of this is that he's a really good running back, but I also tend to think there's a degree of randomness here that is going to be corrected.
- In Tyrod Taylor's three seasons as a starter in Buffalo, his targets to RB/FB were 78, 89 and 110. The high mark for individual players was 77 for LeSean McCoy in 2017.
On a different note, I'm curious what the Joshua Kelley draft pick means for Ekeler's usage. I honestly have no idea, but I found it a little odd that the Chargers used a fourth round pick (which I still consider to be useful draft capital) when they have Ekeler and Justin Jackson on the roster.
- Ekeler had four touchdown catches of 30 yards or more. No doubt part of this is that he's a really good running back, but I also tend to think there's a degree of randomness here that is going to be corrected.
- In Tyrod Taylor's three seasons as a starter in Buffalo, his targets to RB/FB were 78, 89 and 110. The high mark for individual players was 77 for LeSean McCoy in 2017.
On a different note, I'm curious what the Joshua Kelley draft pick means for Ekeler's usage. I honestly have no idea, but I found it a little odd that the Chargers used a fourth round pick (which I still consider to be useful draft capital) when they have Ekeler and Justin Jackson on the roster.
Tau837
Footballguy
I agree on Kelley. I thought the need was not enough for the Chargers to spend a 4th rounder on any RB (barring a major talent falling) and further thought that drafting Kelley that high was a reach. I did expect a RB to be drafted, but, once they traded away their 3rd to move up for Murray, I thought that pushed RB to a 6th or 7th round pick.
That said, the fact that they drafted him where they did suggests they had a high grade on him. So I expect him to be a committee member this season. How much his share of the committee is will be determined by how well he plays. He might not be fantasy useful himself, but I definitely think he damages the fantasy value of both Ekeler and Jackson.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Last season, ~76% of Ekeler's fantasy points came from receiving.
I think the Chargers will have 80-100 fewer pass attempts this season, and the quality of the targets for all Chargers players will go down. I think Ekeler sees at least a 30% regression in receiving production, likely more. 30% reduction in receiving fantasy points in PPR last season would have put him at 15.1 ppg, which would have ranked as RB16.
He should make some of that up in rushing, but not as much as I would have thought before the team drafted Kelley.
Last season in PPR, RB15 and RB19 were separated by about 1 ppg. So, sure, maybe a range of RB15-19.
I like Ekeler, and I'm not down on him. I'm down on HC Lynn, unproven OC Steichen, and the poor level of QB play I expect out of Tyrod, Herbert, and/or Stick.
Deamon
Footballguy
I agree on most of the above (tho I think 30 percent drop is a tad drastic). I just question where this app of rb19 is coming from as I have not seen him that low even in standard, and not even close in pprLast season, ~76% of Ekeler's fantasy points came from receiving.
I think the Chargers will have 80-100 fewer pass attempts this season, and the quality of the targets for all Chargers players will go down. I think Ekeler sees at least a 30% regression in receiving production, likely more. 30% reduction in receiving fantasy points in PPR last season would have put him at 15.1 ppg, which would have ranked as RB16.
He should make some of that up in rushing, but not as much as I would have thought before the team drafted Kelley.
Last season in PPR, RB15 and RB19 were separated by about 1 ppg. So, sure, maybe a range of RB15-19.
I like Ekeler, and I'm not down on him. I'm down on HC Lynn, unproven OC Steichen, and the poor level of QB play I expect out of Tyrod, Herbert, and/or Stick.
Tau837
Footballguy
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Deamon
Footballguy
Yes I suppose that Rotoworld mentions "And yet, we're still not seeing the public treat Ekeler as a true fantasy RB1. I'm not saying we should chase his production from Weeks 1-4 last season, but an average draft position as the PPR RB19 in season-long leagues is absolutely ridiculous."
I guess I'm just curious where they're getting that data. I've checked a bunch of ADP lists just now and he's been at 7, 8, 8, 8, 10, 11, 13.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
so if we kind of agree that 30% drop seems a little drastic (which I agree....dude is going to be on the field somewhere damn near every down, they like to split him out a lot).....let alone get him the ball on early downs with screens.....matched up with LB etc......and then also expecting an increase in rushing attempts.....I think his current ADP in the 7-11 range is pretty accurate.....last year was by all means a break out and may have taken some people by surprise....but I feel his touches will be CMC lite like moving forward....I feel the only noteworthy Kelley affect will be on Jackson.....EK still going eat....
Deamon
Footballguy
He was RB4 in PPR last year. I see a pretty big drop off and see him around RB10 this year. I think the 'reported" ADP or PPR RB19 is both falsely reported, and also way too low even if that was his ADP.
rockaction
Footballguy
I'd go Dobbins. I just looked at a site that had them 32, 33, and 35 overall. It was Dynasty League Football's rankings.
Deamon
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I am guessing he's just trying to get an "in a vaccuum" response, but in all startups I have seen the rookies are included in genpop once the NFL draft has completed. I despise startups that separate them, there is no reason to do so.
Tau837
Footballguy
This article basically dismisses the impact of switching from Rivers to Taylor/Herbert, which IMO is a mistake. It also says nothing at all about the likely reduction in passing attempts and how that could affect Ekeler. So IMO the article is overly optimistic about his prospects this season.
Foosball God
Foos
Wouldn't that then result in more rushing attempts which would also benefit Ekeler?
Tau837
Footballguy
More rushing attempts for Ekeler at the expense of targets would almost certainly be a net loss for him. Last season, he had 132/557/3 rushing and 92/993/8 receiving. So he got 62% of his fantasy points from receiving in non-PPR and 73% in PPR. And that is last season; this season, passing attempts will almost certainly drop by a non-trivial amount, and the offense will probably be less effective (they were #10 in total yards last season, though just #21 in points).
IMO it is unlikely Ekeler will make up for the reduction in his receiving production with rushing production, at least unless at least one of the other RBs misses significant time due to injury.
More to the point, I was simply posting to point out that the article talked a lot about how good Ekeler is a receiving back without really commenting on the likely reduction in receiving opportunities, which seems like a significant omission.
Foosball God
Foos
Because he drafted Jacksonpbandy1 said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Does a 725-4; 65-605-4 stat-line seemed realistic to you?Just Win Baby said:More rushing attempts for Ekeler at the expense of targets would almost certainly be a net loss for him. Last season, he had 132/557/3 rushing and 92/993/8 receiving. So he got 62% of his fantasy points from receiving in non-PPR and 73% in PPR. And that is last season; this season, passing attempts will almost certainly drop by a non-trivial amount, and the offense will probably be less effective (they were #10 in total yards last season, though just #21 in points).
IMO it is unlikely Ekeler will make up for the reduction in his receiving production with rushing production, at least unless at least one of the other RBs misses significant time due to injury.
More to the point, I was simply posting to point out that the article talked a lot about how good Ekeler is a receiving back without really commenting on the likely reduction in receiving opportunities, which seems like a significant omission.
I agree that his receiving yards will go down. Personally I think Tyrod Taylor is a terrible QB and while I do like the rookie, I'm not sure he'll take the league by storm right away. I do think he'll see an uptick in rushing. Those projections but him at RB 10 in ppr (in my projections/rankings) right now. I think he can drop in receiving and still be a good fantasy asset. I don't currently own him in dynasty but wouldn't mind grabbing him at the end of Round 2 in redraft.
