The current bonus pool system is encouraging tanking in ways I don't think existed before. The #1 pick has a slot value of like 8 mil.The rise of the Astros was abetted by tanking. Previous WS teams like the Rays and Royals WS were built via the draft but I don't recall either club bottoming out to the degree the Astros did. They had the advantages of new ownership and front office personnel who didn't have to worry about short term results so I doubt this will become the new normal.
If you look at past drafts, the chances of hitting of a 1st rounder are considerably higher if a team is drafting near the top. But even that's not foolproof. The Astros picked Mark Appel over Kris Bryant and Jon Gray in 2013, and whiffed entirely on Brady Aiken the following year. They got Bregman with a compensatory pick.
Part of baseball's appeal has always been it's competitiveness; most teams will win between 43%-57% of their games so there's not the 16-0 or 73-9 type records that happen in other sports. I hope we don't increase the gap between the haves and the (temporary, strategic) have-nots but the Astros have published the blueprint.
Not sure I get this one. I really doubt Upton was going to find better if he even opted out. But not my money. If they find a decent 2ND and 3Rd base option in free agency and get lucky with pitcher health they could be pretty good next year.The Anaheims extend Justin Upton's contract for 1/$18M in 2022 (his age 34 season) in exchange for him not taking his 2018 player option.
For better or worse, they'll have Trout til 2020, Pujols til 2021 and Upton til 2022.
Eskin's a lot of schtick these days. But as far as I can tell...he legitimately hates analytics. He DESPISES Sam Hinkie and what he did to the 76ers.Epic Problem said:Howard Eskin seems a little uptight.
https://deadspin.com/howard-eskin-is-very-upset-that-new-phillies-manager-ga-1820089781
I don't hate the deal. They have the money to spend and need to do something before Trout's window closes. Anaheim doesn't have any impact prospects near the major league level and a backloaded 5/$106M contract is probably going to be around market rate for free agents this winter.Not sure I get this one. I really doubt Upton was going to find better if he even opted out. But not my money. If they find a decent 2ND and 3Rd base option in free agency and get lucky with pitcher health they could be pretty good next year.
That's the thing though - Upton already had the probable market rate deal, he just had the ability to opt out. I doubt he would have done that. Angels picked up one more year for a no trade clause, basically. It's not an awful deal in a vacuum, and especially when looking at other deals the team has made the past few years, but I'm not quite sure Upton would have tried jumping out of the deal he was in. They had the money though. There will definitely be more questionable moves this off-season. They're rumored to be gunning for Moose. Could be an incredible offense next season.I don't hate the deal. They have the money to spend and need to do something before Trout's window closes. Anaheim doesn't have any impact prospects near the major league level and a backloaded 5/$106M contract is probably going to be around market rate for free agents this winter.
Upton and former Tigers teammate JD Martinez were born four days apart in 1987. I suspect Martinez will get more than 5/$106M as a free agent. Martinez' 45 HRs notwithstanding, Upton is a much better defender and hasn't had the injury history of Martinez. It'll be interesting to see who is the better ballplayer over the remainder of their careers.
The lack of a qualifying offer, huge 2nd half and Upton's extension make him the most in demand FA this side of SapporoWhere does JD end up? That's all I care about.
Well, they need starting pitching in the worst wayDoes anything say Orioles more than showing interest in Andrew Cashner and Jason Vargas?
Heyward has a full no-trade clause in his current deal which has six years to run.Phil Rogers ✔ @philgrogers
@Giants have interest in @Cubs' Jason Heyward, w/Jeff Samardzija and Mark Melancon to offer. Very complicated deal but not impossible.
Henry Schulman @hankschulman
#sfgiants have had zero discussions with #cubs on deal involving Heyward, Shark, Melancon. Anyway, Heyward contract probably unmovable.
I don't know how long Theo holds onto personal issues, but it was fairly well known that the Shark was not all that impressed with Theo's approach to the game, and wasn't shy about running his mouth. And then when it became evident that he would not be getting the long-term deal he felt he deserved, Shark turned up the doosh meter to eleven.Smarj and Melancon's contracts each have three years remaining.
Remember when that mid-contract player opt-out was En Vogue a couple years ago? Boy that's not looking good....or not
Well, Cashner and Vargas would be the WORST way...Well, they need starting pitching in the worst way
Judge/Hicks/Clint Frazier/Gardy is 4 dudes for 3 spots, plus Ellsbury's carcass and Headley's carcass. Not sure there's a big window at DH.Him being a Yankee makes too much sense. Big hole at DH, CC money off the books, only one more year of Gardner / Headley.
Judge, Bird, Sanchez, Severino all already producing at the big league level and under control for at least 4 more years each.
Farm system isn't done providing cost controlled talent (Frazier / Torres)
Are the Yankees going to be big players this offseason? I just assumed they'd take a pass, keep improving from within, then throw all their money at a bunch of the 2018 FA studs (Harper/Machado/Donaldson :( ).Judge/Hicks/Clint Frazier/Gardy is 4 dudes for 3 spots, plus Ellsbury's carcass and Headley's carcass. Not sure there's a big window at DH.
They're going to sit this one out. Hal has made an edict to get below the luxury tax threshold this offseason. I'm hoping they can scrape together the money to re-sign CC. Beyond that, they may try to deal Ellsbury/Gardner/Headley/Castro, but I don't see them signing any FAs of note.Are the Yankees going to be big players this offseason? I just assumed they'd take a pass, keep improving from within, then throw all their money at a bunch of the 2018 FA studs (Harper/Machado/Donaldson :( ).
I think they'll still pop up here and there, but I think teams will be less likely to treat them as freebies with no liability.Justin Upton leveraged his opt-out into an extra year with the Anaheims but he's coming off a semi-career year. Heyward and Cueto didn't perform in their opt-out year. Both their clubs would have been overjoyed if the players opted out but they agreed to the contracts with the likelihood that they would run to term.
We'll see if the FA contracts this year contain these clauses. While they don't cost much in dollars, they can have a significant impact on the trade value of players approaching their opt-out window.
Do they trade Posey too if they move MadBum? I just don't know how much they'd get for him at market rate in his thirties. I think he can remain valuable (especially in the AL with some DH days), but it's a bit of gamble. If you're a team like the Red Sox, though, he'd be a very attractive fit for that club.I don't know if the Giants organization has it in them to tank but I guess we'll find out. The chatter about trading for Stanton suggests they're still trying to win with the current roster. I guess that's noble but I don't see enough upside in what's suddenly become a strong division.
I posted in the Giants thread that I think their best option is to hope Bumgarner is Bumgarner in the first half and deal him for prospects. It's the most tradeable asset they have. All their other post-arbitration guys are at or above market rates. I guess Matt Moore is a value guy but $9M usually buys you positive WAR.
And they traded yet another first baseman, Danny Valencia, to them in about this time last year.I totally forgot Oakland traded Yonder Alonso to Seattle in early August. I guess he wore out his welcome.
Has there been an resolution to that investigation into their front office?John Hart leaves the Braves front office.