Ilov80s
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
RB Kerryon Johnson, Free Agent (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
I won't overpay. If Jones is healthy, he stretches the field for Golladay to operate in the seams and other areas. He's no burner, and no #1, but he's #1a.
From what I saw last year, anyway.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Surely he is the #1 target by a wide margin, though, right? I have largely avoided him so far but am coming around. I've been a Marvin Jones truther for years but I feel like it's Golladay's time now.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Agreed- though it's also noted he hasn't appeared at practice today. I hope nothing is wrong.Kerryon’s value just got a major boost with the release of Theo Riddick.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
This is why I am high on him this year. Though he may see a positive regression in TDs, what excites me is the possibility of 60+ receptions from a thousand yard runner.
My key takeaway from that article:
tombonneau
Footballguy
What's the current dynasty ppr price check on him? Thinking of s/u offering for Gurley, whose current value is very subjective.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Mid 3rd in SF? I think you can get Kerryon plus at least a 2nd for Gurley unless the Kerryon owner is rebuilding or something.
Raptors409
Footballguy
I don't even know where he's being drafted but I've done like 3 mock drafts today and his name didn't appear on my list once before he was already drafted. In theory, being the lead back he should have potential. I''m just doubtful he ends up on any of my teams.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Yeah I am having a hard time getting him in the 10 spot (34th pick.) About half the time he’s there. Hopefully some cray cray hype for Jacobs and Montgomery will push him more towards the end of the third. ECR and ADP are both at RB14, roughly pick 30.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
jtd13
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Just saw him go at 2.10 in $100 best ball. Seems like you can get him at 3.03 but admittedly my board had a steep drop after 2.09 in this draft. Chubb and Evans went right before and at that point if KJ is at the top of your board I guess you take him. Earliest I've seen so far, though.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Ya sounds right. I take him at 3.01 because I want him over Jones, Freeman,fournette and he won’t make it back.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Yup...most often seems like Mack, Jones, Henry and Freeman go before him. Which is kinda funny because he’s a better receiver than the first three by a country mile. While I’m biased, I think he’s a better runner than all of them. Efficiency stats back me up.
But I’m not complaining about the glitch in the ADP. Keep letting him fall.
Nobody wants Fournette this year lol. I have even seen him drift into the fifth, which is absurd.
Last edited by a moderator:
Love Kerryon this year. But anyone think Ty Johnson can be a nice little explosive play-maker out of the backfield? It is obvious they want to run the ball a ton. He seems to have really solid long speed and acceleration, enough to win on the outside for big gains. Seems to have pretty good patience and vision too.
Funny you should say that. I take saquon first, then kerryon and fournette. I can get 2 of Godwin/Kupp/Lockett and sometimes golladay at wr at 4/5. I like it.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
The third round gets tougher in mocks (FBGS: as we anticipated). I used to be able to easily pair Julio/Thomas/ONJ with DiggsWoods/Cooks, and Bell/Conner with Kerryon. Now if I take Chubb/Cook (because 7-8 RBs are gone), taking OBJ/JuJu at 15 might mean choosing between Fournette/Jacobs or reaching for Ingram. Taking two RBs leaves me with a less awesome start than I had hoped: Cook/Mixon with Woods/Golladay doesn’t feel like CHAMPIONSHIP. I usually have 4 RBs by the 7th, 5 by the 9th and end up with 7/8 (18 rounds.)
Switching up & going RB Zero is even dicier because in my league people never let up on taking RBs. But usually at some point one of those handcuffs/fliers has evolved into a viable starter.
I like Chubb/Cook best with that start. I just feel like WR is super deep this year. WR2's (Godwin, Kupp, Ridley) that fantasy-wise could be WR1s. I will take Evans or Allen if they fall to me at 2.12 then come back at 4/5 and take Carson, Drake, Montgomery, or Miller whoever falls to me and then my WR2. As long as I get Njoku or Vance in the 8th round my team grades out really high.BobbyLayne said:
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Terez A. PaylorVerified account @TerezPaylor
Alright, time to unpack the notebook.
First off, one player that is believed to be trending upward is RB Kerryon Johnson.
Johnson has come back in good shape and there is a sense he is ready to handle a bigger load.
Detroit returns all 5 starters on the OL & still wants to run.
6:28 AM - 12 Aug 2019
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Fantasy Football @Fantasy45945449 1h1 hour ago
Replying to @TerezPaylor @32BeatWriters
Hey! Just curious how you feel about Kerryon's touches this year..
Seems Patricia wants to keep it a RBBC Patriots style sort of backfield, if Kerryon gets the opportunity I'm all in, I'm just worried hes not going to be the workhorse hes being drafted as
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Alright, time to unpack the notebook.
First off, one player that is believed to be trending upward is RB Kerryon Johnson.
Johnson has come back in good shape and there is a sense he is ready to handle a bigger load.
Detroit returns all 5 starters on the OL & still wants to run.
6:28 AM - 12 Aug 2019
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Fantasy Football @Fantasy45945449 1h1 hour ago
Replying to @TerezPaylor @32BeatWriters
Hey! Just curious how you feel about Kerryon's touches this year..
Seems Patricia wants to keep it a RBBC Patriots style sort of backfield, if Kerryon gets the opportunity I'm all in, I'm just worried hes not going to be the workhorse hes being drafted as
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Posted this in the Ty Johnson thread, but probably more important here:
https://twitter.com/SmolaDS/status/1163118929520287745?s=19
"Kerryon Johnson was pulled on 3rd down on all 3 series he played last night -- twice for C.J. Anderson and once for Ty Johnson.
#Lions"
Not sure the meaning, if any, but seems like it's worth discussing.
https://twitter.com/SmolaDS/status/1163118929520287745?s=19
"Kerryon Johnson was pulled on 3rd down on all 3 series he played last night -- twice for C.J. Anderson and once for Ty Johnson.
#Lions"
Not sure the meaning, if any, but seems like it's worth discussing.
Last edited by a moderator:
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
What's the preseason for if not checking out every combination? They already know who the starter is.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
What is different from last year that makes people think he will be a 3 down workhorse back?
Last edited by a moderator:
dmac37
Footballguy
Ignore the over reaction comment, pertinent information to have at this stage of the season!!
Not sure who you're referring to that's calling him a 3 down workhorse. I've heard increased workload which makes sense.
Theo Riddick vacating 61 recpts is a good start in that direction
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I don't think KJ needs to be a true 3 down workhorse to return value at ADP this year. I am making some assumptions here, but I think with Bevell calling plays that DET will run the ball more than the 41% of the time they did last year. I am projecting around 47% run this year on the same number of plays which leads to 450 rush attempts. If KJ gets 60% of those that's 270 carries at 4.5 ypc that's 1220 yards. Last year KJ had 3.2 receptions per game that he played. With out Riddick I think we can expect that to increase some. I have a modest increase to 3.5 receptions per game at 7.5 yards per reception for a total of 56 receptions and 420 yards.
My projections for KJ
272/1224/7 rushing
56/420/3 Receiving
Personally I think he is the most talented back on the DET roster and think he could be a true bell cow and a top 5 FF RB this year, but that is hard to project. He is a great 2nd round pick in any format that seems to have a solid floor and good upside as well.
My projections for KJ
272/1224/7 rushing
56/420/3 Receiving
Personally I think he is the most talented back on the DET roster and think he could be a true bell cow and a top 5 FF RB this year, but that is hard to project. He is a great 2nd round pick in any format that seems to have a solid floor and good upside as well.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Workhorse, like pulled in the tweet, is a bit of trigger. [ETA - charged is more accurate, it’s not it causes an existential crisis lol]
But what’s different is the OC - major change philosophy from Jim Bob Cooter, Blount won’t be falling after two yards, Theo won’t be getting dump offs. I don’t see either CJA or ZZ getting significant shares. They’ll be used to keep him fresh, but it’s not exactly a “we’ll alternate series & go with the hot hand kind of deal.
Ty is fast, no doubt. Does he have any wiggle? Theo was above average in pass pro. Those two traits kept Riddick in regular usage for four years.
I wasn’t that enamored with Johnson in college, but would love to see him used as an occasional CoP back. We don’t know that he offers much as a runner and I think he’s not in line for increased work if Kerryon gets nicked up.
Here is one sites KJ projection:
210-985-6 54-385-2 229 full PPR pts (RB11)
and the rest of the backfield:
CJA 76-304-2 5-38-0
Zenner 42-189-1 12-87-0
TJ 21-85-0 27-189-1
The problem with that, as I see it, is the Lions with Bevell will see at least 10% more rushing attempts. Last year they ran 404, so I’m thinking this year it’ll be 445, many of those out of 12 or 22 sets. Figure Stafford & the WRs for 35-40 RA, that leaves 56 unaccounted for - maybe just bump up CJA (Blount went 154-419-5 in 2018.)
Leaving Kerryon at 210 attempts and a very slight increase in catches - many think he’ll have 60+, last years 32 in 11 prorates to 47 - he has a pretty achievable path to low end RB1.
Last edited by a moderator:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It's definitely pertinent, but reacting to it could also be considered an "over-reaction" as well. Do you believe that Johnson would be pulled on third downs during a regular season game for CJ Anderson and Ty Johnson when he's better passing game option than both?
Sometimes teams experiment and look at different things in the preseason or maybe the staff doesn't want to over-work anyone in Week 2 of the preseason.
With that said its surely also useful information to consider because sometimes all we have to go by is all we have to go by. Personally, I don't own KJ anywhere but if I did this would not concern me and it surely would not cause me to hesitate if he's there in Round 3 and was next on my draft board.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Don't underestimate how stupid the Lions and this coaching staff can be. They didn't just sign Blount, they then gave him 154 carries at 2.7 ypc. Then, they sign CJ Anderson in the offseason to be the 2nd RB (who if our often injured RB gets hurt will become the focal point of the offense).
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Flamed our as a starter, looking to extend his career Mike Tolbert-style.
“Roll him into the line, they’ll all fall down!”
matuski
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
It's been my understanding this was going to be a timeshare all along. Pretty sure you can go back a few pages in this thread and find a blurb about it. So people aren't overreacting, maybe they're just catching up. Maybe.Dr. Octopus said:
Ilov80s
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I don’t think we can read much into it. Teams have different priories in preseason. Some teams like to rest the guys they like, some like to try new players out in different spots, some want all the key guys out their to get some practice together. We do know they cut one of the better pass catching backs, used FA to target guys who are clear backups and didn’t make RB a priority in the draft.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
If preseason really meant anything, Matthew Stafford would not be the opening game starter.
