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Just got back from a polling place with my LD's State Senate candidate. We're a traditionally red Arizona district with two insanely terrible Republican incumbents and a fairly sane Senate Republican

I helped get a lesbian Native American elected to Congress.  In Kansas.   And helped prevent Kris Kobach from being in charge of an entire state.   How was your autumn?

Tonight, Ann Coulter tweeted "Kansas is dead to me".   But cut her some slack.  She's been pissed off at us ever since we dropped a house on her sister.  

On 8/29/2018 at 7:03 AM, Plorfu said:

Close race in CD-6 for the Dems - Anita Malik is leading by a few hundred votes over presumptive favorite Heather Ross. If Malik can hang on, Arizona Dems will have nominated a Latino Veteran for Governor, a Latino woman for Attorney General, a woman for SOS,  two AA women for Corporate Commissioner, and Malik, who is the daughter of Indian Immigrants. Hiral will run again in CD-8 and Sinema is a bisexual non-theist. 

They finally called this race for Anita. She has a real shot - very authentic, sharp, and her opponent is a turd.

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On 31/8/2018 at 7:30 PM, timschochet said:

I disagree. I want to return to normal. Trumpism is like McCarthyism; a temporary  bad time. 

Nope. That rock has been turned over and it's clear to all what's scurrying around beneath the surface.

You need to deal with the 30+% who believe Trump is doing just a ok. If you go back to ignoring them you get a repeat.

""Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

/Santayana

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Beto O'Rourke‏Verified account @BetoORourke 8h8 hours ago

US Senate candidate, TX

There will be a reckoning from our conscience, from our kids, from future generations for what we did or failed to do at this critical moment.

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Adam Cohen‏ @axidentaliberal Sep 1

Adam Cohen Retweeted Nick Knudsen  ??

Beto should simultaneously hold a rally at Karnes or Dilley to emphasize the difference between Trump, Cruz and him: They support immoral actions like putting kids in cages. Beto fights to do what’s right.

 

Nick Knudsen  ?? @DemWrite

If @BetoORourke finds an even bigger venue on the same exact day in a different part of Texas, I will fly down there to attend myself. I guarantee you Beto can pull a more devoted crowd. Beto isn't just inspiring Texas with his honest, strong campaign. He's inspiring America. …

 

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Republicans are deciding which lawmakers are worth trying to rescue, and which ones need to be cut loose to fend for themselves in November.

GOP officials say as many as 45 Republican-held seats are at serious risk.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/31/republicans-midterms-congress-vulnerable-lawmakers-gop-805496

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On 8/30/2018 at 0:35 PM, Joe Summer said:

>>Misusing a government seal or posing as a government official is a federal crime.<<

>>Since announcing the FBI meeting on Twitter on Monday, Navarro has used it in multiple fundraising pleas. "I can’t be intimidated. The people will help me fire back at Maxine Waters. Let’s put pressure on her by helping me raise money to defeat her," he tweeted Tuesday.<<

This is incredibly dumb.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006
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3 hours ago, Workhorse said:

This morning’s generic Congressional poll is D+14. Wow. Unless something changes in the next two months, the Republicans are in deep trouble.

This is good news, but the handful of recent polls with huge margins, most notably the Post one you mention, could very well just be outliers.  People should keep that in mind and also not overreact when the margin narrows again in a couple weeks- if so it's just a correction from the previous outliers, not a trend.

Now if the margin stays around its current level ... then we'd have something.

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I'm starting to see more and more resentment from an electorate fed up with a system favoring minority rule if the minority can just keep it close in a couple of small ways. The system is rigged towards the conservative minority in the hinterlands and the minority in power will never lift a finger to correct this imbalance. That is not a formula for the nation's healthy advancement.

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4 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

I'm starting to see more and more resentment from an electorate fed up with a system favoring minority rule if the minority can just keep it close in a couple of small ways. The system is rigged towards the conservative minority in the hinterlands and the minority in power will never lift a finger to correct this imbalance. That is not a formula for the nation's healthy advancement.

The Senate leadership is represented by something like 25% of the countries population and that population is full of low information rubes. It's obviously a problem, but how do we fix it? We all know states are gerrymandered, but the country is gerrymandered too.

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19 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

I'm starting to see more and more resentment from an electorate fed up with a system favoring minority rule if the minority can just keep it close in a couple of small ways. The system is rigged towards the conservative minority in the hinterlands and the minority in power will never lift a finger to correct this imbalance. That is not a formula for the nation's healthy advancement.

About a hundred years ago, the country had about 60 million people living in rural areas and about 60 million people living in cities.  In the last century, we’ve added about 200 million to the total population but the 60 million in rural areas has remained steady.  A coalition representing about 20 percent of the population can get majority control of the Senate now, and if current patterns hold steady we’re maybe 15-20 years away from a coalition representing 30 percent of the population capable of veto-proof supermajority control of the Senate.  

Obviously the Republican Party has no interest in addressing this population distribution as if it is a problem.  The Electoral College has allowed them to take control of the Executive branch twice this generation without winning the popular vote, why would they prevent themselves from minority rule of the legislative branch that has most power over the judical branch? 

We’re gonna need more States.  I know 50 is a nice round number and there’s something poetic about a Senate of 100.  But we’re not going to redraw state boundaries and the small-population states aren’t going to agree to more Senators from large-population states.  So, more states.  

Statehood for Puerto Rico.  We saw an executive branch get away with utter indifference towards a US Territory when disaster struck.  If Puerto Rico was a state the whole scenario plays out differently.  And there’s over 3 million people there.  We have like 20 states of 3 million or fewer.  

Statehood for the District of Columbia.  Taxation with representation.  Having the capital outside the state system was a cute idea that helped settle some differences between the founding fathers but let’s let the people who live there now have Congresspeople and Senators.  There’s almost as many people living in DC as there are in Alaska or Wyoming, and 20 years from now DC will probably pass both Dakotas in head count.  

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40 minutes ago, Bruce Dickinson said:

About a hundred years ago, the country had about 60 million people living in rural areas and about 60 million people living in cities.  In the last century, we’ve added about 200 million to the total population but the 60 million in rural areas has remained steady.  A coalition representing about 20 percent of the population can get majority control of the Senate now, and if current patterns hold steady we’re maybe 15-20 years away from a coalition representing 30 percent of the population capable of veto-proof supermajority control of the Senate.  

Obviously the Republican Party has no interest in addressing this population distribution as if it is a problem.  The Electoral College has allowed them to take control of the Executive branch twice this generation without winning the popular vote, why would they prevent themselves from minority rule of the legislative branch that has most power over the judical branch? 

We’re gonna need more States.  I know 50 is a nice round number and there’s something poetic about a Senate of 100.  But we’re not going to redraw state boundaries and the small-population states aren’t going to agree to more Senators from large-population states.  So, more states.  

Statehood for Puerto Rico.  We saw an executive branch get away with utter indifference towards a US Territory when disaster struck.  If Puerto Rico was a state the whole scenario plays out differently.  And there’s over 3 million people there.  We have like 20 states of 3 million or fewer.  

Statehood for the District of Columbia.  Taxation with representation.  Having the capital outside the state system was a cute idea that helped settle some differences between the founding fathers but let’s let the people who live there now have Congresspeople and Senators.  There’s almost as many people living in DC as there are in Alaska or Wyoming, and 20 years from now DC will probably pass both Dakotas in head count.  

Solid observations. I don't know if they did it knowingly or not, but the Founding Fathers installed sort of a Poison Pill into the representation structure (two Senators from every state, regardless of size) that is slowly strangling the ability of the people to move forward.

This may risk veering close to a re-run of the "sexy legal scholars" discussion of some weeks ago, but we should be asking ourselves if there is any chance that, based on 240 years of accumulated wisdom, a group of legal scholars tasked with re-writing the country's constitution would design anything remotely resembling what we have in place now.

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30 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Solid observations. I don't know if they did it knowingly or not, but the Founding Fathers installed sort of a Poison Pill into the representation structure (two Senators from every state, regardless of size) that is slowly strangling the ability of the people to move forward.

This may risk veering close to a re-run of the "sexy legal scholars" discussion of some weeks ago, but we should be asking ourselves if there is any chance that, based on 240 years of accumulated wisdom, a group of legal scholars tasked with re-writing the country's constitution would design anything remotely resembling what we have in place now.

Just wanted to mention a cursory review of a "sexy legal scholars" web search produced some excellent ideas I will present to my wife for our next kid-free weekend.  

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3 hours ago, TobiasFunke said:

This is good news, but the handful of recent polls with huge margins, most notably the Post one you mention, could very well just be outliers.  People should keep that in mind and also not overreact when the margin narrows again in a couple weeks- if so it's just a correction from the previous outliers, not a trend.

Now if the margin stays around its current level ... then we'd have something.

538 has it up over 80% now that Ds take the house.  just change Nebraska 2nd from toss-up to lean D.

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1 minute ago, joffer said:

538 has it up over 80% now that Ds take the house.  just change Nebraska 2nd from toss-up to lean D.

I like 538 a lot, but I do worry that their model assumes we work in a functioning democracy. I'm just not sure if/how accounts for purging of voter rolls and other bad faith actions. To say nothing of the well-timed email hacks and microtargeted lies about certain candidates that we all know are coming.

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57 minutes ago, Plorfu said:

Graves was governor back when Kansas Republican leaders were people like Robert Dole.  Centrists dug Graves. He didn’t kowtow to right-wingers.  Won re-election easily.  Had a few blips managing state finances in his second term, but nothing criminal or reckless.  

Kind of surprised he didn’t endorse Greg Orman, a third-party centrist.  But Graves is no fan of Brownback or Kobach.  Haven’t seen Graves make any public statements about Trump but I’m sure he’s not a fan.

This means Laura Kelly has the endorsement of two former governors, one Republican and one Democrat (Kathleeen Sebelius), both of whom were popular and re-elected without sweat.  I hope their endorsements get the vote out. 

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4 hours ago, roadkill1292 said:

I'm starting to see more and more resentment from an electorate fed up with a system favoring minority rule if the minority can just keep it close in a couple of small ways. The system is rigged towards the conservative minority in the hinterlands and the minority in power will never lift a finger to correct this imbalance. That is not a formula for the nation's healthy advancement.

I read some stat that an absurdly low amount of voters like 19 million get to decide over 70 Senators. 

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17 minutes ago, joffer said:

538 has it up over 80% now that Ds take the house.  just change Nebraska 2nd from toss-up to lean D.

When you play Russian Roulette you have a 5 out of 6 chance of surviving but I still wouldn't feel comfortable pulling the trigger.

That's kind of what this feels like to me.   I've voted in every major election since 1976 and this feels like the the most important election of my lifetime.

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21 minutes ago, Bruce Dickinson said:

Graves was governor back when Kansas Republican leaders were people like Robert Dole.  Centrists dug Graves. He didn’t kowtow to right-wingers.  Won re-election easily.  Had a few blips managing state finances in his second term, but nothing criminal or reckless.  

Kind of surprised he didn’t endorse Greg Orman, a third-party centrist.  But Graves is no fan of Brownback or Kobach.  Haven’t seen Graves make any public statements about Trump but I’m sure he’s not a fan.

This means Laura Kelly has the endorsement of two former governors, one Republican and one Democrat (Kathleeen Sebelius), both of whom were popular and re-elected without sweat.  I hope their endorsements get the vote out. 

Kobach is a tool.  I'm pretty sure @krista4 has a anecdote about him from their college days. 

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3 hours ago, Bruce Dickinson said:

About a hundred years ago, the country had about 60 million people living in rural areas and about 60 million people living in cities.  In the last century, we’ve added about 200 million to the total population but the 60 million in rural areas has remained steady.  A coalition representing about 20 percent of the population can get majority control of the Senate now, and if current patterns hold steady we’re maybe 15-20 years away from a coalition representing 30 percent of the population capable of veto-proof supermajority control of the Senate.  

Obviously the Republican Party has no interest in addressing this population distribution as if it is a problem.  The Electoral College has allowed them to take control of the Executive branch twice this generation without winning the popular vote, why would they prevent themselves from minority rule of the legislative branch that has most power over the judical branch? 

We’re gonna need more States.  I know 50 is a nice round number and there’s something poetic about a Senate of 100.  But we’re not going to redraw state boundaries and the small-population states aren’t going to agree to more Senators from large-population states.  So, more states.  

Statehood for Puerto Rico.  We saw an executive branch get away with utter indifference towards a US Territory when disaster struck.  If Puerto Rico was a state the whole scenario plays out differently.  And there’s over 3 million people there.  We have like 20 states of 3 million or fewer.  

Statehood for the District of Columbia.  Taxation with representation.  Having the capital outside the state system was a cute idea that helped settle some differences between the founding fathers but let’s let the people who live there now have Congresspeople and Senators.  There’s almost as many people living in DC as there are in Alaska or Wyoming, and 20 years from now DC will probably pass both Dakotas in head count.  

I'd like to see some consolidation of states.   North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming and Montana should be one state.   No way that territory should get 8 Senators.

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2 minutes ago, Marauder said:

I'd like to see some consolidation of states.   North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming and Montana should be one state.   No way that territory should get 8 Senators.

:goodposting:

It's been said by a hundred comedians, but do we really need 2 Dakotas? Give statehood to DC and PR.

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8 minutes ago, Sweet J said:

Kobach is a tool.  I'm pretty sure @krista4 has a anecdote about him from their college days. 

I live in KS-03.  I had the pleasure of voting against him for Congress in 2004.  I've been in the same room as him at the state capitol in Topeka listening to him tell lies about thousands of undocumented immigrants allegedly voting illegally in Kansas, and then watching him find and prosecute zero of them for voter fraud even after the state gave him a lot of leeway and time to do so as KS Secretary Of State.  He has the most punchable face I've encountered in person since that time I saw Austin Rivers play live.

ETA: I'll let Kansas City's Rob Riggle sum up my feelings on the subject right here

Edited by Bruce Dickinson
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2 hours ago, Sweet J said:

Kobach is a tool.  I'm pretty sure @krista4 has a anecdote about him from their college days. 

:goodposting: I believe at some point I posted my experience in the Very Special Kris Kobach thread.  I think it’s the voter fraud thread. 

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I'm generally a fan of pollsters, but IMO it would be nice if they took some of the resources they've devoted to breathlessly polling presidential approval on daily basis, and even some of the polling on generic congressional balloting, and devoted them to state/district level polling on senate, house and governor races instead.

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52 minutes ago, TobiasFunke said:

See, this is much more helpful info:
 

 

NBC/Marist poll of Indiana (likely voters):

Donnelly (D) 49%

Braun (R) 43%

Undecided/other 7%

Aug 26-29

 

 

This is huge. Trump won Indiana with 56.8% of the vote in 2016. 

Edited by Jobber
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55 minutes ago, TobiasFunke said:

See, this is much more helpful info:
 

 

NBC/Marist poll of Indiana (likely voters):

Donnelly (D) 49%

Braun (R) 43%

Undecided/other 7%

Aug 26-29

 

 

That's a Hillary Clinton level advantage - I doubt it holds up election day once the votes are "tallied."

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6 hours ago, TobiasFunke said:

I'm generally a fan of pollsters, but IMO it would be nice if they took some of the resources they've devoted to breathlessly polling presidential approval on daily basis, and even some of the polling on generic congressional balloting, and devoted them to state/district level polling on senate, house and governor races instead.

In 538s podcasts, Nate Silver and the group usually bemoan this same thing. He said it's improving though.

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9 hours ago, TobiasFunke said:

I'm generally a fan of pollsters, but IMO it would be nice if they took some of the resources they've devoted to breathlessly polling presidential approval on daily basis, and even some of the polling on generic congressional balloting, and devoted them to state/district level polling on senate, house and governor races instead.

I agree, but worth keeping in mind that pollsters don't have unlimited resources, and it's harder/more expensive to conduct a narrowly targeted poll in a specific district than to do a national one.

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2018 Polling in Real Time

 

This is kind of an interesting little exercise by Sienna College and NYT - they are updating poll results after every phone call.  A little insight into what goes into the polling effort.

For example: They just completed polling Illinois 6 - made 36,355 calls to get 512 responses.  

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37 minutes ago, -fish- said:

can you try to explain the point you're trying to make?

I’ll try.

Hillary appeared at an event with male governor of New York Andrew Cuomo.  His primary challenger is female actress/activist Cynthia Nixon from “Sex in the City.”  Ren seems to be under the impression that somebody somewhere said that women should only support other women candidates, or something like that.

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1 hour ago, -fish- said:

can you try to explain the point you're trying to make?

It's not hard to follow if you click on the link.  

The Democratic Party loved identity politics when it used them to promote the country's first major female presidential candidate.   In the link posted above, Albright, on the campaign trail for Hildog, says 'there's a special place in hell' for women who don't support other women.  

Now that a progressive gay woman is running for governor to the Democratic Party's left, in New York, against a white man whose office is drenched in corruption, the Party (including Biden, Clinton and Perez) is doing the opposite of that, and endorsing its entrenched corporate toad.  

Which goes to show us that the sort of pleas they make to marginalized people- to protect us from the big bad republicans, grant us a return to normalcy, and reflect progressive values- are nothing but an empty gesture.  

It's a sign of how little they have learned from 2016, and the systemic failure that gave us Trump in the first place.  

Edited by ren hoek
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On 9/4/2018 at 8:30 AM, Dedfin said:

The Senate leadership is represented by something like 25% of the countries population and that population is full of low information rubes. It's obviously a problem, but how do we fix it? We all know states are gerrymandered, but the country is gerrymandered too.

Prolific whining on message boards.

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6 hours ago, ren hoek said:

It's not hard to follow if you click on the link.  

Quote

ryan cooper @ryanlcooper 16h16 hours ago

solidarity for thee, supporting the turbo-corrupt subway-wrecking white man over a gay women for me

:loco:

Edited by [scooter]
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5 hours ago, jonessed said:
On 4/9/2018 at 5:30 PM, Dedfin said:

The Senate leadership is represented by something like 25% of the countries population and that population is full of low information rubes. It's obviously a problem, but how do we fix it? We all know states are gerrymandered, but the country is gerrymandered too.

Prolific whining on message boards.

Please don't turn on the jon_mx signal

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10 hours ago, ren hoek said:

It's not hard to follow if you click on the link.  

The Democratic Party loved identity politics when it used them to promote the country's first major female presidential candidate.   In the link posted above, Albright, on the campaign trail for Hildog, says 'there's a special place in hell' for women who don't support other women.  

Now that a progressive gay woman is running for governor to the Democratic Party's left, in New York, against a white man whose office is drenched in corruption, the Party (including Biden, Clinton and Perez) is doing the opposite of that, and endorsing its entrenched corporate toad.  

Which goes to show us that the sort of pleas they make to marginalized people- to protect us from the big bad republicans, grant us a return to normalcy, and reflect progressive values- are nothing but an empty gesture.  

It's a sign of how little they have learned from 2016, and the systemic failure that gave us Trump in the first place.  

That’s a heck of a lot of subtext to pack into a single line by one character, Mr. Mamet. 

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