Fantasy offseason dynasty rankings?

[Tick]

Norton and Larkin both updated their rankings in the past 2 days.

[Tick]

It's my annual quest to find IDP dynasty rankings between week 13 and the NFL draft!!!

Anybody know of any?

[tripp]

19 hours ago, Tick said:

It's my annual quest to find IDP dynasty rankings between week 13 and the NFL draft!!!

Anybody know of any?

Now that I'm at DynastyFootballFactory.com, I'll get with the team there and see what we can do. I agree it's always a need.

[Ranethe]

19 hours ago, Tick said:

It's my annual quest to find IDP dynasty rankings between week 13 and the NFL draft!!!

Anybody know of any?

This site has some helpful info including weekly WW suggestions, weekly rankings, and rest of season rankings.

https://www.idpguru.com

[MAC_32]

20 hours ago, Tick said:

It's my annual quest to find IDP dynasty rankings between week 13 and the NFL draft!!!

Anybody know of any?

No, but if work allows between now and Christmas I'm gonna dive into salary cap/contract stuff on overthecap and cross reference vs. future draft picks that I may have missed before. That's usually how I uncover gems on my own. I rely on youse guys for potential reclasses and scheme changes.

[Tick]

I'll throw some up to get some discussion going - poke holes!  Caveats:

• DL is combined, biased toward 4-3 DEs.
• Balanced scoring
• DBs combined, which for me means all safeties.  Bias toward SS.
• I really devalue 3-4 OLBs.

Edited December 12, 2019 by Tick

[Tick]

DL:

1. Hunter, Danielle MIN DE
2. Bosa, Joey LAC DE
3. Garrett, Myles CLE DE
4. Bosa, Nick SFO DE
5. Hubbard, Sam CIN DE
6. Donald, Aaron LAR DT
7. Buckner, DeForest SFO DT
8. Ngakoue, Yannick JAC DE
9. Ioannidis, Matt WAS DE
10. Crosby, Maxx OAK DE
11. Tuitt, Stephon PIT DE
12. Armstead, Arik SFO DE
13. Jordan, Cameron NOS DE
14. Ingram, Melvin LAC DE
15. Dunlap, Carlos CIN DE
16. Clark, Frank KCC DE
17. Flowers, Trey DET DE
18. Allen, Josh JAC DE
19. Allen, Jonathan WAS DE
20. Lawrence, Demarcus DAL DE
21. Barnett, Derek PHI DE
22. Heyward, Cameron PIT DE
23. Watt, J.J. HOU DE
24. Griffen, Everson MIN DE
25. Houston, Justin IND DE
26. Ogbah, Emmanuel KCC DE
27. Clowney, Jadeveon SEA DE
28. Jones, Chris KCC DT
29. Davenport, Marcus NOS DE
30. Burns, Brian CAR DE
31. Ferrell, Clelin OAK DE
32. Quinn, Robert DAL DE
33. Graham, Brandon PHI DE
34. Campbell, Calais JAC DE
35. Pierre-Paul, Jason TBB DE
36. Jarrett, Grady ATL DT

[Tick]

LBs:

1. Leonard, Darius IND LB
2. White, Devin TBB LB
3. Cunningham, Zach HOU LB
4. Schobert, Joe CLE LB
5. Littleton, Cory LAR LB
6. Smith, Jaylon DAL LB
7. Martinez, Blake GBP LB
8. Hicks, Jordan ARI LB
9. Smith, Roquan CHI LB
10. Thompson, Shaq CAR LB
11. Edmunds, Tremaine BUF LB
12. Bush, Devin PIT LB
13. Brown, Jayon TEN LB
14. Warner, Fred SFO LB
15. Evans, Rashaan TEN LB
16. Vander Esch, Leighton DAL LB
17. Kuechly, Luke CAR LB
18. Wagner, Bobby SEA LB
19. Jones, Deion ATL LB
20. Mosley, C.J. NYJ LB
21. Milano, Matt BUF LB
22. Landry, Harold TEN LB
23. Alexander, Kwon SFO LB
24. Foster, Reuben WAS LB
25. Kendricks, Eric MIN LB
26. Holcomb, Cole WAS LB
27. Baker, Jerome MIA LB
28. Smith, Telvin JAC LB
29. David, Lavonte TBB LB
30. Davis, Demario NOS LB
31. Collins, Jamie NEP LB
32. Davis, Jarrad DET LB
33. Campbell, De'Vondre ATL LB
34. Davis, Todd DEN LB
35. Jack, Myles JAC LB
36. Walker, Anthony IND LB

[Tick]

DBs:

1. Adams, Jamal NYJ S
2. Collins, Landon WAS S
3. Baker, Budda ARI S
4. James, Derwin LAC S
5. Bell, Vonn NOS S
6. Peppers, Jabrill NYG S
7. Bates, Jessie CIN S
8. Johnson, John LAR S
9. Walker, Tracy DET S
10. Edmunds, Terrell PIT S
11. Neal, Keanu ATL S
12. Amos, Adrian GBP S
13. Simmons, Justin DEN S
14. Rapp, Taylor LAR S
15. Byard, Kevin TEN S
16. Joseph, Karl OAK S
17. Harrison, Ronnie JAC S
18. Reid, Justin HOU S
19. Poyer, Jordan BUF S
20. Clinton-Dix, Ha Ha CHI S
21. Whitehead, Jordan TBB S
22. Willis, Khari IND S
23. Clark, Chuck BAL S
24. Mathieu, Tyrann KCC S
25. Williams, Shawn CIN S
26. Reid, Eric CAR S
27. Savage, Darnell GBP S
28. Fitzpatrick, Minkah PIT S
29. Tartt, Jaquiski SFO S
30. Thornhill, Juan KCC S
31. Randall, Damarious CLE S
32. Harris, Erik OAK S
33. Bethea, Antoine NYG S
34. Jenkins, Malcolm PHI S
35. Smith, Harrison MIN S
36. Diggs, Quandre SEA S

[Tin Cup]

Thanks for doing these, Tick.

[Tick]

This is the last week of waivers before a multi-month freeze (during which new owners tend to snag all the good FAs) in my five leagues.

If anyone spots IDP dynasty rankings this week, please post here - I'd love to see what people are thinking since I get tunnel vision for my own guys during the season.

[Tick]

https://www.fantasysharks.com/apps/bert/forecasts/fantasy_football_rankings.php?League=&Position=9&Rankersort=&Segment=1&Rankers=

Found one!!!

[Ranethe]

14 minutes ago, Tick said:

https://www.fantasysharks.com/apps/bert/forecasts/fantasy_football_rankings.php?League=&Position=9&Rankersort=&Segment=1&Rankers=

Found one!!!

Those are some bizarre rankings. I’d find them close to useless.

[Tick]

12 hours ago, Ranethe said:

Those are some bizarre rankings. I’d find them close to useless.

Couldn’t find Myles Garrett at a quick look, which implies they’re not really dynasty rankings.

 

Edit: switch from Next 3 Years to Rest of Career.  It improves things dramatically (Garrett from 58th to 6th).

Edited December 17, 2019 by Tick

[Enderdog]

They're still weird.  I peeked at QB to see if that was better, and Gardner Minshew is at #5 and Mahomes at #8. 

I've looked at their rankings on occasion since it's linked on the Zealots leagues, but I then do the opposite of their advice.  Constanza rankings.

[tripp]

12 hours ago, Ranethe said:

Those are some bizarre rankings. I’d find them close to useless.

Street free agent Willie Henry ranked 38th among DLs. 39: Cam Jordan. 56: Aaron Donald. 183: Akiem Hicks.

No Darius Leonard in LB ranks. Maybe it goes w/o saying? Benched players H Reddick and D Lee at 20 and 24. Street free agent M Foster at 36. Roquan Smith 40th. Jahlani Tava'i at 174.

Byron Murphy #2 at DB. L Collins 37th. Sheldrick Redwine at 285.

🤷‍♂️

[MAC_32]

Take 1

Note, I applied rankings just for readability, but I don't really follow them. The tier names are more important. i.e. I have a team with Roquan Smith (2), Devin Bush (7), Blake Martinez (8), Eric Kendricks (13), and Rashaan Evans (20). I have very little interest in acquiring a good veteran like Bobby Wagner or Demario Davis on that team.  I have another team that has Roquan Smith (2), Jayon Brown (17), Drue Tranquil (25), Jon Bostic (59), and Donald Payne (65). I'm highly motivate to add a veteran like Wagner/Davis on that team. But, anyway...

25 and under 3 down stars

1. Darius Leonard 25

2. Roquan Smith 23

3. Devin White 22

4. Tremaine Edmunds 22

5. Jaylon Smith 25

6. Zach Cunningham 25

Not 3 downs (all of) 2019, but believe he will in 2020 - then he slides up

7. Devin Bush 22

Over 25 stars that should retain value, but are free agents

8. Blake Martinez 26

9. Joe Schobert 26

10. Cory Littleton 26

Over 25 stars that should 3 down for several more years

11. Shaq Thompson 26

12. Jordan Hicks 28

13. Eric Kendricks 28

14. Bobby Wagner 30

15. Luke Kuechly 29

16. CJ Mosley 28

25 and under, not quite stars, but still could be

17. Jayon Brown 24

18. LVE 23

19. Fred Warner 23

20. Rashaan Evans 23

If they could just stay healthy

21. Deion Jones 25

22. Kwon Alexander 26

23. Reuben Foster 26

Young guys that could jump to 3 down roles in 2020, but are not guaranteed

24. Mack Wilson 22

25. Drue Tranquill 25

26. Dre Greenlaw 23

Sorta young guys that should retain 3 down roles for several more years, but are not guaranteed

27. Matt Milano 26

28. Jarrad Davis 24

Wrong side of the bell curve, still productive, but could go over the cliff with no notice

29. Demario Davis 31

30. KJ Wright 31

31. Avery Williamson 28

Shrug

32. Telvin Smith 29

Job security warning - level orange

33. Lavonte David 30

34. Benardrick McKinney 27

35. Myles Jack 25

36. Anthony Walker 25

37. AJ Johnson 28

Free agents that should be 3 downers, but may not

38. Danny Trevathan 30

39. Jamie Collins 30

40. Christian Kirksey 28

Young guys that I don't think will jump to 3 down roles (yet) but could

41. Cole Holcomb 24

42. Cody Barton 23

43. Bobby Okereke 24

44. Germaine Pratt 23

45. Ryan Connelly 24

Free agents that may not get 3 down roles

46. De'Vondre Campbell 27

47. Nick Vigil 27

48. Nick Kwiatkowski 27

49. Denzel Perryman 26

I don't know how to rank pass rushers

50. Shaq Barrett 27

51. TJ Watt 25

52. Chandler Jones 30

53. Bud Dupree 27

54. Khalil Mack 29

Job security warning - level red

55. Alec Ogletree 29, I think he gets cut but does he latch on somewhere else

56. Jerome Baker 23, skeptical the next 4 retain a 3 down role

57. Todd Davis 28

58. Tahir Whitehead 30

59. Jon Bostic 29

60. Anthony Barr 28, job's probably secure but role doesn't net pooints in our game

61. Mark Barron 30, isn't in a 3 down role and may get cut anyway

62. Nate Gerry 25, don't think the team wanted him in a 3 down role and has the means to change that

Fliers

63. Troy Reeder 26, Littleton is a UFA

64. Oren Burks 25, Martinez is a UFA

65. Donald Payne 26, JAX is a mess

66. Jahlani Tavai 24, January in DET is an unknown

67. Sione Takitaki 25, Schobert is a UFA but couldn't get on the field

68. Blake Cashman 24, probably more likely for 2021

69. Benn Burr-Kirven 23, probably more likely for 2021

70. Kyzir White 24, because I can't quit him

[Gally]

On ‎12‎/‎11‎/‎2019 at 8:10 PM, Tick said:

DBs:

1. Adams, Jamal NYJ S
2. Collins, Landon WAS S
3. Baker, Budda ARI S
4. James, Derwin LAC S
5. Bell, Vonn NOS S
6. Peppers, Jabrill NYG S
7. Bates, Jessie CIN S
8. Johnson, John LAR S
9. Walker, Tracy DET S
10. Edmunds, Terrell PIT S
11. Neal, Keanu ATL S
12. Amos, Adrian GBP S
13. Simmons, Justin DEN S
14. Rapp, Taylor LAR S

I would think that one of these guys should be this high but not both.  Rapp only got in when Johnson went on IR.  I would be surprised if both guys ended up being quality DB starters. 

[Tick]

3 hours ago, Gally said:

I would think that one of these guys should be this high but not both.  Rapp only got in when Johnson went on IR.  I would be surprised if both guys ended up being quality DB starters. 

Agreed on Rapp/Johnson... either one of them would be higher if we knew they had the job alone, and both would be lower if they split it.  It's hard to balance those... I tend to rate upside pretty high since the waiver wire is usually pretty deep at DB.

[Tick]

Regarding Telvin Smith, I think he must be tied to Coughlin based on the stuff I've seen over the past couple of days.  If Coughlin is out (and he should be), I think Telvin returns.

[Tick]

6 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

Take 1

Thanks for adding in contract status... I just looked at age, production, and overall opinion of a player.  Adding in contract info definitely drops some guys.

The only guy I didn't see on your list was Harold Landry - any thoughts?

I was much higher than you on Milano, Landry, Holcomb, Baker, Campbell, and Todd Davis.  I'll take a closer look.

Pratt is someone I'll be moving up - I forgot him because his average points this season were bad... of course, he wasn't getting many snaps early.  It would be interesting to get the right snaps to sort guys by points per snap instead of points per game.

I think Tavai could be in that 40-45 group.

[MAC_32]

My outlook on Tavai changes substantially with today's front office news. Leadership returning for 2020 makes his path to PT a lot clearer. I didn't think they would. He's right with Pratt now. 

You can lump Landry in with the other pass rushers I don't know how to rank. I either missed him or he didn't hit my benchmarks when I filtered. 

[Tick]

@MAC_32 Any desire to take a stab at the DL?

[saintfool]

On 12/17/2019 at 10:24 AM, MAC_32 said:

18. LVE 23

Getting offseason neck surgery. Spinal Stenosis diagnosis. He's one neck injury away from retirement. He's getting different neck pads and whatnot but it's hard for me to think his value hasn't been tarnished in dynasty formats. Back issues aren't the kiss of death but it's going to make owning him more of a hassle.

[MAC_32]

16 hours ago, Tick said:

@MAC_32 Any desire to take a stab at the DL?

Depending on what work is like before I get into baseball mode I may do Edge rankings. It probably depends on coaching turnover more than anything. If there's too much guess work then even if I have time I still may bypass. 

[MAC_32]

35 minutes ago, saintfool said:

Getting offseason neck surgery. Spinal Stenosis diagnosis. He's one neck injury away from retirement. He's getting different neck pads and whatnot but it's hard for me to think his value hasn't been tarnished in dynasty formats. Back issues aren't the kiss of death but it's going to make owning him more of a hassle.

While true I still find it difficult to slide him down more than two spots right now. All of those guys in the tier below have health issues, short and (potentially?) long term. 

[Tick]

NORTON RANKINGS!

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=lb&type=dynasty&howrecent=21

[Crippler]

Not huge on rankings

overvalued

• Jayon Brown(7). Is he even best LB there. Replacable
• joe Schobert(12) is he not FA. Reminds me of Paul Worrilow a few years ago. Plus Kirksey could be back and Mack Wilson coming on
• Jerome Baker(15). I like him but a little too high for outside guy
• Chandler Jones(23). Older plus too sack reliant. 
• Matt Milano(24). Another replaceable guy. 
• Rueben Foster(31). Can you really trust
• Danny Trevathon(32). Think Wesley Woodward a year ago. Not sure back

under valued

• devin Bush(30). Young, talented, will only get better. Should be top 10
• roquan Smith(19). Was really coming on till injury. Also in top 10
• Rasheed Evans(36). The Titan guy I want. Top 25
• Za’Darius Smith(43). Give me him over Chandler. 
• Bobby Okereke(46). Will see way more time in year 2. Graded very well
• Jared Davis(56). What stops him from wearing dot. Think top 25. 

[Gally]

4 hours ago, Crippler said:

Not huge on rankings

overvalued

• Jayon Brown(7). Is he even best LB there. Replacable
• joe Schobert(12) is he not FA. Reminds me of Paul Worrilow a few years ago. Plus Kirksey could be back and Mack Wilson coming on
• Jerome Baker(15). I like him but a little too high for outside guy
• Chandler Jones(23). Older plus too sack reliant. 
• Matt Milano(24). Another replaceable guy. 
• Rueben Foster(31). Can you really trust
• Danny Trevathon(32). Think Wesley Woodward a year ago. Not sure back

under valued

• devin Bush(30). Young, talented, will only get better. Should be top 10
• roquan Smith(19). Was really coming on till injury. Also in top 10
• Rasheed Evans(36). The Titan guy I want. Top 25
• Za’Darius Smith(43). Give me him over Chandler. 
• Bobby Okereke(46). Will see way more time in year 2. Graded very well
• Jared Davis(56). What stops him from wearing dot. Think top 25. 

Baker is not an edge guy so he is not reliant on sacks like other "outside" guys.  He led the Dolphins in tackles and there isn't any reason that should change.  I am not sure why you are down on him because he is an "outside" guy.  He is the weakside OLB on a 4-3 team.  He should have a very similar season next year.  He also mixes in enough splash plays to elevate him as well.

 

Jared Davis has Tavai to compete with.  Tavai actually outplayed him and Davis has never been great in coverage.  He has been moving towards more of a two down LB-er and Tavai should take over as being the main guy.  Also, Davis always seems dinged and has been more hyped than his actual production deserves. 

[saintfool]

On 1/7/2020 at 5:37 AM, Crippler said:

Not huge on rankings

overvalued

• Jayon Brown(7). Is he even best LB there. Replacable
• joe Schobert(12) is he not FA. Reminds me of Paul Worrilow a few years ago. Plus Kirksey could be back and Mack Wilson coming on
• Jerome Baker(15). I like him but a little too high for outside guy
• Chandler Jones(23). Older plus too sack reliant. 
• Matt Milano(24). Another replaceable guy. 
• Rueben Foster(31). Can you really trust
• Danny Trevathon(32). Think Wesley Woodward a year ago. Not sure back

under valued

• devin Bush(30). Young, talented, will only get better. Should be top 10
• roquan Smith(19). Was really coming on till injury. Also in top 10
• Rasheed Evans(36). The Titan guy I want. Top 25
• Za’Darius Smith(43). Give me him over Chandler. 
• Bobby Okereke(46). Will see way more time in year 2. Graded very well
• Jared Davis(56). What stops him from wearing dot. Think top 25. 

the chatter in Chicago is Roquan got much better as the season wore on. Conversely, Trevation might be a victim of the numbers game. Nick Kwiatkoski showed well in his first extended crack in the starting line up. Many could see Trevathan leaving while offering Kwiat a longer term contract, if he wants to stay.

[Tick]

Not IDP, but the January dynasty trade value chart with rookies is worth a read, but buried in playoff week articles.

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2020-dynasty-trade-value-chart-january

[johnnyboy8102]

Norton is high on JPP heading into his age 31 season. 

He is also really low on Rapp. Has anyone heard and reports on Neal’s recovery? 

[Gally]

26 minutes ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

Norton is high on JPP heading into his age 31 season. 

He is also really low on Rapp. Has anyone heard and reports on Neal’s recovery? 

Do you mean John Johnson's recovery?  Neal wouldn't have any impact on Taylor Rapp's value.  

[johnnyboy8102]

13 hours ago, Gally said:

Do you mean John Johnson's recovery?  Neal wouldn't have any impact on Taylor Rapp's value.  

Sorry. Should have separated those two thoughts. 
 

Both Johnson’s recovery and Neal’s recovery. 
 

Also, is there anyway Johnson and Rapp can both start? 

[Gally]

4 hours ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

Sorry. Should have separated those two thoughts. 
 

Both Johnson’s recovery and Neal’s recovery. 
 

Also, is there anyway Johnson and Rapp can both start? 

I am not sure on the recovery times but I would be more worried about Neal coming off a torn achilles than Johnson with a shoulder injury. 

 

As far as Johnson and Rapp playing together, they probably can but it will depend on who the Rams bring in for DC.  Losing Phillips may change the scheme and hit their values (or give it a boost).  I do think they play a similar style although later in the year it looked like Rapp was playing deeper than Johnson usually did.  Not sure if there was a scheme change that caused that or not. 

[tripp]

As best I can tell, Eric Weddle could be cut because the Rams are in salary-cap purgatory. Rapp's emergence might have made Weddle expendable anyway. He could even retire. Iirc, reports surfaced that he considered retiring after parting ways with the Ravens. Weddle did, however, call defensive plays in some games for the Rams, so he's not without value to the defense. That said, my best guess is that Weddle's gone and that Johnson and Rapp play alternate playing deep. That would limit the fantasy ceiling of both players. It's possible the new DC shows a preference to keep one closer to the LOS than the other, but which? I'd guess Rapp if forced. The scheme still probably makes one irrelevant. I'd want to move off both this off-season if I could. Seem like sell-highs to me. Thoughts?

[Tick]

Regarding Rapp/Johnson, I want them both.  If I end up with one top-10 safety out the deal, great.  Of course the worry is that as tripp said, they play dedicated-side or something and both lose value... but they're worth the chance.

[Tick]

https://www.big3idp.com/top150idp
Posted before reading.

[Gally]

This seems like as good a place as any for this:

 

WIth Wade Phillips leaving the Rams will there be any affect on Littleton?  I know depending on who they bring in could affect a 3-4 or 4-3 switch but how big of an affect could that have on Littleton?

[Riddick02]

17 minutes ago, Gally said:

This seems like as good a place as any for this:

 

WIth Wade Phillips leaving the Rams will there be any affect on Littleton?  I know depending on who they bring in could affect a 3-4 or 4-3 switch but how big of an affect could that have on Littleton?

He's free agent no? 

[Gally]

38 minutes ago, ridicule said:

He's free agent no? 

You are apparently correct.  I would assume the Rams will bring him back if possible but maybe not.  Does this help or hurt his value?

[Dezbelief]

46 minutes ago, Gally said:

You are apparently correct.  I would assume the Rams will bring him back if possible but maybe not.  Does this help or hurt his value?

Too many moving pieces right now, wait until after FA and the draft to throughly evaluate. 

[Gally]

1 hour ago, Dezbelief said:

Too many moving pieces right now, wait until after FA and the draft to throughly evaluate. 

I agree that it is preferred but sometimes taking a chance you might be able to get a guy cheaper by making calculated assumptions now......

[RushHour]

On 1/22/2020 at 5:30 AM, Tick said:

https://www.big3idp.com/top150idp
Posted before reading.

These rankings are super weird but thanks for posting. Interesting. 

[football fan]

19 hours ago, ridicule said:

He's free agent no? 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/cory-littleton-19717/

[football fan]

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2019/10/24/nfl-rams-cory-littleton-contract-offseason/

Cory Littleton is playing his way into a big payday – from Rams or someone else

[Tick]

On 1/22/2020 at 6:05 PM, RushHour said:

These rankings are super weird but thanks for posting. Interesting. 

I accidentally pointed to the redraft rankings.  https://www.big3idp.com/top150idp is dynasty.

[tripp]

I'm working on my ranks now. How crazy would I be to leave Blake Martinez and Joe schobert out of my overall top 50 IDPs for fear they don't land full-time gigs in free agency?

[BigAl21]

Pretty crazy for Blake to not land full time role. He’s gonna demand premium LB$ and as a result, whoever pays that premium, will use him as every down guy. I’m less confident about Schobert for some reason TBH.

[Tick]

16 hours ago, tripp said:

I'm working on my ranks now. How crazy would I be to leave Blake Martinez and Joe schobert out of my overall top 50 IDPs for fear they don't land full-time gigs in free agency?

Rank them how you see it - don't adjust to seem normal unless you want to.  Sometimes LBs don't land a good job, or even a job at all (Navorro Bowman post-Raiders).