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DYNASTY: You're outside the TOP 4 (Rookie Edition) (1 Viewer)

Soulfly3

Soulfly3

Footballguy
So, this is an opinion thread, emant for discussion... I still haven't finished wiping my tears about the whole Kizer being the worst QB of all time, ruining my xmas by watching Gordon look like Treadwell out there (non-existent).... But that'll change next season w a franchise QB..

Anyways... Imo, if you have a TOP 4 pick in Dynasty Rookie drafts this season, you're laughing..

In any order - Barkley, Guice, Love, Chubb.

So... If you have the 5 pick or lower... What would be your gameplan this season? Personally, Im not in love w any of the WRs, tho some should be decent. Those 4 above tho, should be the cat's culo...

Staying put, or trading to an owner for an asset, or trading down?

 
Soulfly3 said:
So, this is an opinion thread, emant for discussion... I still haven't finished wiping my tears about the whole Kizer being the worst QB of all time, ruining my xmas by watching Gordon look like Treadwell out there (non-existent).... But that'll change next season w a franchise QB..

Anyways... Imo, if you have a TOP 4 pick in Dynasty Rookie drafts this season, you're laughing..

In any order - Barkley, Guice, Love, Chubb.

So... If you have the 5 pick or lower... What would be your gameplan this season? Personally, Im not in love w any of the WRs, tho some should be decent. Those 4 above tho, should be the cat's culo...

Staying put, or trading to an owner for an asset, or trading down?
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I’m not sure if Chubb is number 4 at this point. I’d take Damian Harris over him. I really want to see how he performs in this big game coming up. However, to your point acquiring those picks would be ideal. I currently have picks 1.3. 1.5, 1.6, 1.7 and 1.10. 

Picks 5-8 can be very valuable and I believe interchangeable they have the same value IMHO. No way do you trade those picks.

Gallup is probably my favorite WR at this point but with those picks I may take Harris, Penny/Jones, Gallup/Adams then take Mark Andrews at 1.10. Then at the 2.1, 2.2 picks I might draft the best situational player. 1st I draft on talent alone but after that I’m looking at talent/situation.

Tex

 
BigTex said:
I’m not sure if Chubb is number 4 at this point. I’d take Damian Harris over him.
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I actually really like Harris, but I just HATE when a guy doesn't get a big workload, cuz I feel like Im missing something and cant trust what I see.

He is 100% a beast, and may regret passing on him (and I may not even pass). Cant ignore that he does it against the cream of the crop.

 
I see more of a top-2 at this point.  After that the question becomes which flavor of RB do you like best, which will be heavily influenced by scoring (ppr/std) and even more heavily influenced by who goes to which teams.

I'm coming around to the idea that dynasty WRs are more "drat and hold" like QBs, but that RBs should be drated for immediate opportunity and flipped if you don't trust the longterm value.  I mostly play standard scoring, and producing RBs are gold.  

If I'd taken Hunt or Kamara instead of Corey Davis, I could probably have turned either back into Davis-plus by midseason, so my dynasty ranking is going to be only half talent and half opportunity in this year's RB-heavy class.  If there was a WR that looked like even a Davis-level prospect I might slip him into the 4-6 slot, but I am not convinced there is one this year.

 
I probably won't end up with Love, Chubb or Harris on any of my teams.  I see Barkley and Guice as a top 2 with a big drop after them. I really like Ronald Jones, Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel right now. Obviously draft slot and team fit will push some of these guys up in the draft.  

 
Soulfly3 said:
I actually really like Harris, but I just HATE when a guy doesn't get a big workload, cuz I feel like Im missing something and cant trust what I see.

He is 100% a beast, and may regret passing on him (and I may not even pass). Cant ignore that he does it against the cream of the crop.
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I’m 100% with you on that not seeing a workload, it’s  a cause for skepticism but I’ve learn from last year as I didn’t fully trust Kamara as he only got his chance at Tennessee because of injury to the starting running back. I ended up drafting him anyway because the other owners were passing him up and I thought what “IF” I was wrong about not seeing enough, WHAT IF he’s really as good as his performance and data points say, then I’d be passing on the SOD. The data is very valuable and my eyes say he’s good even in limited playing time so I convinced myself to pull the trigger.

Dont get caught up in limited exposure if you like what you see pull the trigger and don’t look back.

Tex

 
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Arodin said:
I see more of a top-2 at this point.  After that the question becomes which flavor of RB do you like best, which will be heavily influenced by scoring (ppr/std) and even more heavily influenced by who goes to which teams.

I'm coming around to the idea that dynasty WRs are more "drat and hold" like QBs, but that RBs should be drated for immediate opportunity and flipped if you don't trust the longterm value.  I mostly play standard scoring, and producing RBs are gold.  

If I'd taken Hunt or Kamara instead of Corey Davis, I could probably have turned either back into Davis-plus by midseason, so my dynasty ranking is going to be only half talent and half opportunity in this year's RB-heavy class.  If there was a WR that looked like even a Davis-level prospect I might slip him into the 4-6 slot, but I am not convinced there is one this year.
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I’ve drafted Coleman, Doctson, K. White, K. Benjamin, M. Williams, K. Allen and JuJu (that are still on my team). Only Allen and JuJu have come through at this point. The others are still young but they all have been a disappointment in some way or another especially considering were they were drafted. There are some WRs I drafted high that I traded away as soon as I could get the best value once I was no only convinced they were valuable or peaked out.

Grabbed K. Cole off the WW before he started blowing up.

I’ve traded for Julio, Hopkins, Cooks, and Bryant.

My point is drafting the most talented WR in the last 2-3 years have not exactly paid off. So I started trading for WRs and drafting RBs because people are STILL skeptical of the obvious and that is RBs are not only getting their value back but are becoming more valuable than WRs so last year I didn’t draft any WRs. 

After Gurley and Zeke (I have both on my team) it became obvious that the NFL is putting its eggs back into the running backs bucket. Now Cooks, Hunt, Kamara, Fournette and a few others are showing this to be true. (I also have Cooks and Kamara)

Again, you’re on to something.

ETA: This is Dynasty 

Tex

 
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Honestly, if I was drafting at the back end of the first, Sony is a steal. Really like him. 

I guess at this point, who ends up where will make a huge difference. It usually does, but with this RB crew, it's more than ever. 

For example, as much as I love Guice, Id take Love or Chubb ahead of him if their opportunity is better.

I dont see the huge dropoff between any of those top 4 guys (or even top 5, if we wanna include Harris)

 
I think the second tier of the second tier of RBs is going to be tricky, and landing spot is going to jumble and re jumble their ADP.

*secondary tier of tier two RBs being  the top 4-6 guys after Barkley and Guice

 
My problem with a guy like Bryce Love is that at his size, he may not be a feature back. Chris Johnson was at 5'-11", 203. Reggie Bush wasn't at 6'-0" 200. Johnson carried the ball over 250 times for 6 straight years and had over 300 touches each of those years. Bush's high was 230 touches until he got away from Payton.

Is Love gonna get the touches??? I think it depends who drafts him moreso that the bigger backs.

 
I'll be mulling this topic over for awhile. I own the 1.05/1.06 in one league and I will likely try to move up for Guice or Barkley. But I also like the idea of sitting tight and taking the top 2 BA running backs at those spots. Gonna stay tuned I suppose.

 
lod001 said:
My problem with a guy like Bryce Love is that at his size, he may not be a feature back. Chris Johnson was at 5'-11", 203. Reggie Bush wasn't at 6'-0" 200. Johnson carried the ball over 250 times for 6 straight years and had over 300 touches each of those years. Bush's high was 230 touches until he got away from Payton.

Is Love gonna get the touches??? I think it depends who drafts him moreso that the bigger backs.
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This where I am with Love. After watching McCaffrey struggle to break tackles in the NFL I’m pushing the pause button. Now I know they are two different players but I want to see how much power Love actually has. After watching McCaffrey play, he’s so tiny and unless he gets physically stronger his owners are going to be extremely disappointed especially considering who they passed on and where they drafted him.

Tex

 
BigTex said:
This where I am with Love. After watching McCaffrey struggle to break tackles in the NFL I’m pushing the pause button. Now I know they are two different players but I want to see how much power Love actually has. After watching McCaffrey play, he’s so tiny and unless he gets physically stronger his owners are going to be extremely disappointed especially considering who they passed on and where they drafted him.

Tex
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Struggle with him a bit too, but my GOD he looked good in college.

I get that he's "small", but unless defenders can get their hands on him, it wont be as big an issue... and ya, i know it's the pros, he wont be eluding as much as he did in college... but he'll still elude. a lot. 

 
Soulfly3 said:
I actually really like Harris, but I just HATE when a guy doesn't get a big workload, cuz I feel like Im missing something and cant trust what I see.

He is 100% a beast, and may regret passing on him (and I may not even pass). Cant ignore that he does it against the cream of the crop.
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Kamara didn’t get a big workload at Tennessee.

 
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So much depends on where guys end up, but I’m high on Penny, R. Jones, Freeman, Michel, and James Washington.

 
Soulfly3 said:
Struggle with him a bit too, but my GOD he looked good in college.

I get that he's "small", but unless defenders can get their hands on him, it wont be as big an issue... and ya, i know it's the pros, he wont be eluding as much as he did in college... but he'll still elude. a lot. 
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You’re right he does and that’s what makes him so damn intriguing so I’m looking at guys who were elusive too BUT who are bigger like Josh Adams and D. Harris. They may not be as elusive as Love but they have shown enough for me to justify the pick.

Tex

 
In 2 QB or TE premium, some interesting prospects also

QB. Really like Rosen and Darnold if declaring. Is Cleveland the ruin of these guys. I don't think so and with 100 million and all those premium picks, I see a Jags/Rams rise. Seen one mock where they get triplets on Rosen, Barkley and Washington. Also still big on Josh Allen. I just see potential with great size. The Wentz connection in coach also. Don't like Lamar very much and feel Mayfield will be more Johnny than Drew. Rest I feel are average like Rudolph. 

TE. Not last year but some interesting names in Andrews, Fumagalli, Giescki and Goedert that could provide a nice TE in a few years as TE takes time to develop. I have Andrews as top 7 pick in TE premium league. 

Big on Jones and Chubb but feel some nice RB to be had and draft landing spot will be huge. I agree with Big Tex on Love though. And he does not have McCafferys hands. 

WR. Washington is fav but still really high on Ridley. Sutton scares me. Rest are 2s at best. Marcel Atelman interesting but don't know much. 

 
Arodin said:
I see more of a top-2 at this point.  After that the question becomes which flavor of RB do you like best, which will be heavily influenced by scoring (ppr/std) and even more heavily influenced by who goes to which teams.

I'm coming around to the idea that dynasty WRs are more "drat and hold" like QBs, but that RBs should be drated for immediate opportunity and flipped if you don't trust the longterm value.  I mostly play standard scoring, and producing RBs are gold.  

If I'd taken Hunt or Kamara instead of Corey Davis, I could probably have turned either back into Davis-plus by midseason, so my dynasty ranking is going to be only half talent and half opportunity in this year's RB-heavy class.  If there was a WR that looked like even a Davis-level prospect I might slip him into the 4-6 slot, but I am not convinced there is one this year.
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While true, that's probably a lot more prevalent in standard leagues than PPR leagues.  There's also some bias in there by choosing the two most successful next-tier RB's.  Had you drafted Mixon, Perine, or Foreman you probably wouldn't have gotten the same kind of opportunity.

 
Hankmoody said:
While true, that's probably a lot more prevalent in standard leagues than PPR leagues.  There's also some bias in there by choosing the two most successful next-tier RB's.  Had you drafted Mixon, Perine, or Foreman you probably wouldn't have gotten the same kind of opportunity.
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Fair point...I play almost exclusively in standard scoring systems.

I think the point stands even broadening my examples though.  Better chance of quick return on investment chosing amongst Mixon (still has trade value), Hunt, Perine, Kamara and Foreman versus a comparable spread of choices in Davis, Williams, Ross, Jones, Samuel and Smith-Schuster.

 
Arodin said:
Fair point...I play almost exclusively in standard scoring systems.

I think the point stands even broadening my examples though.  Better chance of quick return on investment chosing amongst Mixon (still has trade value), Hunt, Perine, Kamara and Foreman versus a comparable spread of choices in Davis, Williams, Ross, Jones, Samuel and Smith-Schuster.
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But the common theme will be their actual success.  I could say the exact opposite last year with trading Michael Thomas for Derrick Henry+ or Sterling Shepard for Kenneth Dixon+.  Hyde for OBJ in 2014 (good lord 2015 was a terrible draft).  The position isn't what's driving your conclusion, hindsight is.  It's kind of unavoidable and easy to fall into.  It's still mostly about "picking the player that scores highest" than anything else.

 
Barkley is the bulletproof #1, Guice  the clear cut #2 right now but not as certain as Barkley.

Then it gets wide open but the main guys I'm looking at next are Ridley, Jones, Michel and Harris.  I want to like Washington and Sutton more, but just don't see them as being rated this high right now.

 
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lod001 said:
My problem with a guy like Bryce Love is that at his size, he may not be a feature back. Chris Johnson was at 5'-11", 203. Reggie Bush wasn't at 6'-0" 200. Johnson carried the ball over 250 times for 6 straight years and had over 300 touches each of those years. Bush's high was 230 touches until he got away from Payton.

Is Love gonna get the touches??? I think it depends who drafts him moreso that the bigger backs.
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Bucky Brooks raises a very good point on Love and for those that don't know Bucky's dad is a longtime HS coach and Love played for his dad.

The point he raised was that Love is to small to be a feature back but he's not seen enough of him in the passing game to think he has skills to be a third down back which raises the question of what is he? Concern for fantasy  being he's a non pass catching COP.

He's a track star so he'll run great at the combine but what will be more key for him in the draft process IMO is showing skills in the passing game and  then of course where he lands.

 
Ended up with  3,4,5,11,12  and 15 overall in the 2nd.

With no real need,   Do you package picks to get into the top 2?

or start sending picks for next season.

 
Wherever possible, I'd prefer to consolidate into earlier picks rather than getting more and trading down but that's because roster spots become an issue with too many picks.  But when potential stud RBs sit atop the rooking rankings, it's really hard to trade INTO those picks.  I'm not sure how it will line up but seems like 1.01 and 1.02 (Barkley and Guice) are going to be valued as elite RBs already by the guys who have those picks.  I rarely try to trade into that range because the price is almost always too high. If I have 1.03-1.06, I'm looking BPA.  Further out, I'd try to consolidate into the 1.03-1.06 range.

 
johnadams said:
Wherever possible, I'd prefer to consolidate into earlier picks rather than getting more and trading down but that's because roster spots become an issue with too many picks.  But when potential stud RBs sit atop the rooking rankings, it's really hard to trade INTO those picks.  I'm not sure how it will line up but seems like 1.01 and 1.02 (Barkley and Guice) are going to be valued as elite RBs already by the guys who have those picks.  I rarely try to trade into that range because the price is almost always too high. If I have 1.03-1.06, I'm looking BPA.  Further out, I'd try to consolidate into the 1.03-1.06 range.
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I agree that dealing up to elite picks is best when you have more picks than roster space.  Ive found that if I can't deal up now, I can often deal back to next year as an alternative.  You can't guarantee an elite pick, of course, but you can often "upgrade" the picks, and add enough additional capital to increase the odds of landing or trading up to an elite pick next time.

It also tends to sustain the condition of "more picks than needed," but I would rather be in position of having picks I can't use than not having as many as I want.

 
petekrum said:
Kamara didn’t get a big workload at Tennessee.
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Had a huge breakout game I recall.

petekrum said:
So much depends on where guys end up, but I’m high on Penny, R. Jones, Freeman, Michel, and James Washington.
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That's how I passed on Kamara. I remember his huge game last year. Then Payton drafted him and I crossed him off.

Pwingles said:
ha, wouldnt surprise anyone
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Somehow I got that in the wrong thread.

 
lod001 said:
Had a huge breakout game I recall.

That's how I passed on Kamara. I remember his huge game last year. Then Payton drafted him and I crossed him off.

Somehow I got that in the wrong thread.
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lool, i was getting ready to respond to that in that thread

 
I've been wrestling with how I rank the upcoming class after the top-2.  Due to some trades earlier in the year, I have # 2 overall pick, the # 5 overall pick, and the # 11 overall pick. We are a 14-team keeper IDP league. We keep 25 players and draft 5.  I am thinking hard about trying to make a move for the # 1 pick, but not sure I can pry it away from the guy who has it. 

Barkley is the easy # 1 and Guice the easy # 2, at this point. I'm struggling after that and really want Barkley, so I may end up trying to bundle the 5 and 11 picks for the 1 pick.  The only problem is I'm pretty stacked at RB and would prefer to get a really good WR to play with.  So, maybe I just take Guice at the 2 pick and then wrestle with WRs and RBs at 5 and 11.  Dunno. Don't think I could take a WR at 2 at this point, even if it were better for my team.  I've always gone by best talent available, and it's worked out pretty well. 

 
lod001 said:
That's how I passed on Kamara. I remember his huge game last year. Then Payton drafted him and I crossed him off.
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 Kamara had a perfect landing spot and I said that when he got drafted, not after the fact. He's a good runner but elite receiving back and his biggest knock was that he had never carried a huge workload. He landed in a spot that throws to their RB's as much as anyone in the league but at the same time never asks their RB's to be bell cows. It was perfect for him.

 
menobrown said:
 Kamara had a perfect landing spot and I said that when he got drafted, not after the fact. He's a good runner but elite receiving back and his biggest knock was that he had never carried a huge workload. He landed in a spot that throws to their RB's as much as anyone in the league but at the same time never asks their RB's to be bell cows. It was perfect for him.
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Man I was so high on him and his landing spot didn't worry me long term either, but I didn't have enough picks for all the guys I liked and figured he'd struggle early in that three-headed monster and I'd be able to trade for him cheap.  That plan blew up quick.  No real regrets since I didn't pass him for anyone obviously inferior (Hunt and Engram are only ones I took over him) but man, that stings hard.

 
Gottabesweet said:
Ended up with  3,4,5,11,12  and 15 overall in the 2nd.

With no real need,   Do you package picks to get into the top 2?

or start sending picks for next season.
Click to expand...
I have 3, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 18 and I’m holding until I see who all declares for the draft. I may trade one pick for a 2019 pick, and package one or two in a deal to get Antonio Brown.

Tex

 
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BigTex said:
I’ve drafted Coleman, Doctson, K. White, K. Benjamin, M. Williams, K. Allen and JuJu (that are still on my team). Only Allen and JuJu have come through at this point. The others are still young but they all have been a disappointment in some way or another especially considering were they were drafted. There are some WRs I drafted high that I traded away as soon as I could get the best value once I was no only convinced they were valuable or peaked out.

Grabbed K. Cole off the WW before he started blowing up.

I’ve traded for Julio, Hopkins, Cooks, and Bryant.

My point is drafting the most talented WR in the last 2-3 years have not exactly paid off. So I started trading for WRs and drafting RBs because people are STILL skeptical of the obvious and that is RBs are not only getting their value back but are becoming more valuable than WRs so last year I didn’t draft any WRs. 

After Gurley and Zeke (I have both on my team) it became obvious that the NFL is putting its eggs back into the running backs bucket. Now Cooks, Hunt, Kamara, Fournette and a few others are showing this to be true. (I also have Cooks and Kamara)

Again, you’re on to something.

ETA: This is Dynasty 

Tex
Click to expand...


my team would look drastically different if i hadn't drafted treadwell #2 last year and corey davis #5 this year (post ware injury)...

looking around at the other receivers too, it's been a rough couple years to grab a top-end WR in a rookie draft.

 
MikeHeel said:
I've been wrestling with how I rank the upcoming class after the top-2.  Due to some trades earlier in the year, I have # 2 overall pick, the # 5 overall pick, and the # 11 overall pick. We are a 14-team keeper IDP league. We keep 25 players and draft 5.  I am thinking hard about trying to make a move for the # 1 pick, but not sure I can pry it away from the guy who has it. 

Barkley is the easy # 1 and Guice the easy # 2, at this point. I'm struggling after that and really want Barkley, so I may end up trying to bundle the 5 and 11 picks for the 1 pick.  The only problem is I'm pretty stacked at RB and would prefer to get a really good WR to play with.  So, maybe I just take Guice at the 2 pick and then wrestle with WRs and RBs at 5 and 11.  Dunno. Don't think I could take a WR at 2 at this point, even if it were better for my team.  I've always gone by best talent available, and it's worked out pretty well. 
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As a 1.01 owner I laugh at your 1.05/1.11 offer.

 
lod001 said:
My problem with a guy like Bryce Love is that at his size, he may not be a feature back. Chris Johnson was at 5'-11", 203. Reggie Bush wasn't at 6'-0" 200. Johnson carried the ball over 250 times for 6 straight years and had over 300 touches each of those years. Bush's high was 230 touches until he got away from Payton.

Is Love gonna get the touches??? I think it depends who drafts him moreso that the bigger backs.
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I saw the same concern posted on this board last year about CMac. You are over thinking it. Love proved he is one tough SOB playing thru a high ankle sprain this year. He is elusive and can able to run thru tackles. The bonus is he has world class speed. I liken him to Kamara in terms of upside. 

 
32 Counter Pass said:
I saw the same concern posted on this board last year about CMac. You are over thinking it. Love proved he is one tough SOB playing thru a high ankle sprain this year. He is elusive and can able to run thru tackles. The bonus is he has world class speed. I liken him to Kamara in terms of upside. 
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Did people overthink it with McCaffrey?  I'm a lot lower on him then I was before the season.  I knew what he offered as a receiver was strong, elite even, but had concerns how his ability to run would translate and after about a whole season in the books those concerns are a lot higher. His value to me dropped more than any of the Big 6 rookie RB's.

Love is really nothing like Kamara or McCaffrey as a receiver, or a better way of saying that is that he has not shown any of that ability yet. He could be like a Fournette, better pass blocker and outlet receiver then people realized but he's not shown that skill and people who know him better then me, as I mentioned in a few posts up, have same concerns.

 
I offered Mike Evans for the #1 pick, fwiw. He's thinking.

I'm stacked at WR, but my RBs are... well... dog####.

Kills me, as I absolutely LOVE Evans... but I need Barkley

 
I have the 1.1 and 1.4 in my 1 rebuilding league. I'm hoping there is a "drop off" after 4 cause as of right now I have a top 3 of Barkley, guice and Chubb so I wouldn't mind trading back and getting some other pieces or picks and still getting someone like penny, Harris, jones or 1 of the WRs.

I haven't seen much of the other guys though so maybe 1 moves up into that top 4 for me when I scout them a little more later

 
menobrown said:
Did people overthink it with McCaffrey?  I'm a lot lower on him then I was before the season.  I knew what he offered as a receiver was strong, elite even, but had concerns how his ability to run would translate and after about a whole season in the books those concerns are a lot higher. His value to me dropped more than any of the Big 6 rookie RB's.

Love is really nothing like Kamara or McCaffrey as a receiver, or a better way of saying that is that he has not shown any of that ability yet. He could be like a Fournette, better pass blocker and outlet receiver then people realized but he's not shown that skill and people who know him better then me, as I mentioned in a few posts up, have same concerns.
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Yes, people did overthink McCaffrey. He is currently the #8 RB in ppr format. What more do you expect? I anticipate his role growing next year.

My comparison to Kamara was only in terms of his upside. I follow Stanford very closely and Love has been extremely impressive this year. He is nothing like Fornette in terms of run style, but he is very capable of breaking tackles. It is his elusiveness and speed that is the differentiator. You are correct about his receiving skills in that they are an unknown because Stanford did not throw him the ball. 

 
I have 1.02, what do you think will be reasonable to trade for 1.01 ? How about 1.02 and K.Drake RB Miami for 1.01 ??

 
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