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QB Sam Darnold, CAR


Soulfly3

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Coaches and GMs make bad decisions all the time. Miami got Rosen for a late 2nd round pick, so not as much as Carolina giving up a likely better 2nd rounder in 2022 and a 4th. Darnold is better than Rosen, although unlikely to be better than Teddy. What film did the Miami coaches see that sold them on a late 2nd for Rosen. It took me only a couple of exhibition games to know Rosen wasn't the answer. It took the Miami heat writers a few scrimmages. How many flashes of greatness or even averageness has Darnold shown in 3 years.

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PANTHERS TRADE FOR SAM DARNOLD

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The world’s unhappiest marriage is finally over. The big Jets divorce that started with Adam Gase’s firing has ended with Sam Darnold packing his bags for Carolina, an ideal landing spot with a heftier than expected price tag. Carolina is sending a 2021 sixth-rounder in addition to 2022 second- and fourth-rounders New York’s way. The devil is in those details — the league regards future draft picks as far less valuable — but this isn’t a giveaway by the Jets. It’s a commitment from the Panthers, one they were maybe spooked into making after putting too many eggs into the Deshaun Watson basket. 

They are apparently so serious about Darnold that they made the largely ceremonial but hardly without risk gesture of exercising Darnold’s fifth-year team option for 2022. It’s guaranteed for injury only, but if a player who has never appeared in more than 13 games can’t pass a physical next spring, the Panthers will be on the hook for roughly $20 million. 

It’s a big bet that OC Joe Brady is just the man to revive Darnold’s career, and it’s hard to disagree. If you were considering the offensive minds most likely to jump start a failed 23-year-old former first-rounder, Brady would be on the very short list. “Very short” could be the amount of time Brady has left in Carolina, as he is a head-coaching job waiting to happen. That makes 2021 an all-or-nothing proposition with regards to Darnold’s future.

The Darnold we got in 2020 was a weapons-less disaster who produced more picks than passing scores for the league’s worst coaching staff. Those two biggest problems are fixed right off the bat in Carolina. Brady schemed career years for essentially all of his skill players last season, but he couldn’t have done it without their skill. D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson are an excellent receiver tandem, and they will be re-joined by Christian McCaffrey in 2021. 

Darnold, of course, has experience with Anderson, a player he would gel with every December when the Jets finally decided the wideout should be a featured part of the offense. Whereas Darnold has played with Anderson before, he has never had a talent like Moore or McCaffrey at his disposal. CMC is the most dangerous running back in football. Moore makes Jamison Crowderlook like a Patriots special teamer. This skill position supporting cast isn’t just better on the whole than the one Darnold leaves behind in New York, it’s an upgrade at every position. 

Which brings us to the biggest question: Is Darnold better than Teddy Bridgewater? By any objective measure, the answer is no. But Darnold has something Bridgewater doesn’t: Untapped ceiling. Bridgewater is hard capped. Even amongst last year’s avalanche of career campaigns, Bridgewater still managed only 15 passing touchdowns. He has taken this roster as far as he can, and it was 5-11. 

A natural-born gunslinger before he started seeing ghosts, there’s a play-maker somewhere inside Darnold waiting to be unleashed. There’s also a sloppy, Winston-ian mistake maker who needs to be reined in. That’s the needle Brady has to thread. It is usually a losing battle. Darnold is a heat check moment for an assistant on a rocket ship to a top job. Darnold could just as easily be Brady’s first setback instead of crowning achievement. It was simply time to try something new after Bridgewater proved there was no higher gear for him to shift into. 

The same could be true for Darnold. Darnold is more reckless than aggressive down the field. As a result, he wasn’t asked to throw there very often in 2020, with his 38 attempts of 20-plus yards registering just 26th. Next Gen Stats charted Darnold’s average depth of target as merely .5 higher than Bridgewater’s, with his 7.8 mark checking in 26th amongst qualifying quarterbacks. No. 1 in that department? Joe Flacco, who was playing in the same dismal Jets Offense as Darnold. Gase trusted broken-down Flacco to chuck it deep but not Darnold. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for the kid’s future. 

And if Darnold isn’t going to be excellent deep, where does he better Bridgewater? Darnold butters his bread at the intermediate levels of the field, an area Bridgewater had already firmly mastered. This is a hope and maybe a prayer from a front office that presents itself as one of the league’s most analytically minded. If it pays off, it will be about Darnold’s underlying talent as opposed to any underlying metrics. The latter never identified a good football player in New York. It’s a risky bet to make, but one that can be forgiven after Bridgewater turned Moore, Anderson and Curtis Samuel into only 15 scores.    

 

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32 minutes ago, rzrback77 said:

I admit that I have not seen many Jets’ games and thus have not watched Darnold a lot, but his situation has been beyond deplorable and will be better in Carolina.

I get that all of the Jet fans have nothing good to say and three years is a large sample size, so the two views are exact opposite ends of the spectrum.

My take is that the Jets at least got three picks for a QB they obviously despised. And Carolina chose Darnold over Bridgewater and have what should be better coaching, a better line and better weapons, so both teams benefitted.

I don't know if a change of scenery will help Darnold or not, but he's had 46 turnovers in 38 games, has a career passer rating of 78.6 (half of his career starts have been under 80), and his annual PFF grades have gotten worse each year not better (64.7 / 63.6 / 58.4). PFF rated Bridgewater (with more weapons) a little better than Darnold last year (66.0), so there's a decent chance things won't change all that much. Certainly having a healthy CMC would help. In the limited times I saw him play with the Jets, he looked lost and incapable . . . even if the play calling and personnel weren't great.

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1 hour ago, ConstruxBoy said:

But most smart NFL observers know this and feel the same way you do, including me.

This is very untrue. Darnold netted a sixth this year, and a second and fourth next, which is like a third and fifth given the value chart. He merited very little in return. And, actually, most smart NFL observers today, like Bill Barnwell on Twitter, are comparing him to other quarterbacks. Their names run the gamut from Blake Bortles to Christian Ponder. Or Chase Stuart of Football Perspective, notably not on the Sam bandwagon and using Pro-Football-Reference's stats to back it up. His ANY/A for the first three years, compared to the first three years of guys who had over 1000 attempts is atrocious. His ANY/A last year was 34th in the league out of 32. That's no lie. His EPA per play was a -1, which was dead last also. He was legendarily bad last year.

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6 hours ago, rockaction said:

Carolina convinced themselves they should sign El Stinko and extend him. That was a horrible decision by Carolina, and may have nuked their team for the next two years.

Though Bridgewater was no prince. Then again, Teddy outplayed Sam in 2018 preseason and nobody could admit it in NY because they'd just drafted the guy to be the heir apparent to a dreamworld.

If you're looking for a qb in 2022 then Darnold probably makes more sense than Teddy. 

With Teddy the team will win just enough games not to be able to get one, like this year. If Sam can't be fixed then that won't be a problem. This team will be at the top of the draft. 

But I'm not throwing in the towel on Sam just yet. Cause the stats don't matter. He came to the league under developed, flawed, mistake prone, and in need of development. Then he was tasked with doing that under Adam Gase in a toxic organization with no talent. Oooooh...kay.

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6 hours ago, SoBeDad said:

Coaches and GMs make bad decisions all the time. Miami got Rosen for a late 2nd round pick, so not as much as Carolina giving up a likely better 2nd rounder in 2022 and a 4th. Darnold is better than Rosen, although unlikely to be better than Teddy. What film did the Miami coaches see that sold them on a late 2nd for Rosen. It took me only a couple of exhibition games to know Rosen wasn't the answer. It took the Miami heat writers a few scrimmages. How many flashes of greatness or even averageness has Darnold shown in 3 years.

I think this is good comparison. Still, not a real expensive chance to take. Offensive players seem to do better when they leave Gase.

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According to Bert Breer, CAR has been both trying to acquire Darnold and trade Bridgewater since the SB. Apparently not much interest in Teddy, or at least not at what they hope to get back in return. He also said across that time the Panthers didn't love the QB options that would be available to them at 8. So based on that, it looks like Darnold was the guy they wanted all along.

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27 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

According to Bert Breer, CAR has been both trying to acquire Darnold and trade Bridgewater since the SB. Apparently not much interest in Teddy, or at least not at what they hope to get back in return. He also said across that time the Panthers didn't love the QB options that would be available to them at 8. So based on that, it looks like Darnold was the guy they wanted all along.

If they can manage to move teddy, what would the cost be? If they can recoup the 6th from this year or the 4th from next year it makes the Darnold trade look better. That doesn’t seem out of the question to me. 

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14 hours ago, rockaction said:

This is very untrue. Darnold netted a sixth this year, and a second and fourth next, which is like a third and fifth given the value chart. He merited very little in return. And, actually, most smart NFL observers today, like Bill Barnwell on Twitter, are comparing him to other quarterbacks. Their names run the gamut from Blake Bortles to Christian Ponder. Or Chase Stuart of Football Perspective, notably not on the Sam bandwagon and using Pro-Football-Reference's stats to back it up. His ANY/A for the first three years, compared to the first three years of guys who had over 1000 attempts is atrocious. His ANY/A last year was 34th in the league out of 32. That's no lie. His EPA per play was a -1, which was dead last also. He was legendarily bad last year.

Compared to Carson Wentz?  Who had good trade value from Indy's perspective?

Darnold is no Wentz and I am not making any such claim, but trade value is subjective on what they see the players "capable of achieving" and not always "what have you done lately".   

I think the deal is a good cost/risk value.  Darnald missed on a significant portion of development due to the whole NYJ dysfunction, HC/OC issues and illness/injury.  Give him a teacher/QB/OC Coach to develop him in Joe Brady and let's see what he can do.  He may not be the elite QB they are looking for, but he has the potential to be better than Teddy.    

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17 hours ago, rockaction said:

Carolina convinced themselves they should sign El Stinko and extend him. That was a horrible decision by Carolina, and may have nuked their team for the next two years.

Though Bridgewater was no prince. Then again, Teddy outplayed Sam in 2018 preseason and nobody could admit it in NY because they'd just drafted the guy to be the heir apparent to a dreamworld.

By the eye test, Teddy had a lot more good plays at QB than Darnold last year. He had two 1,000 WRs. He showed moxie as a runner. His running game wasn't good, the top 2 RBs averaged 3.8 and 3.9 ypc, just a little better than the Jets top 2 RBs who averaged 3.5 and 3.6. His QBR was 17th of 33, just below Ryan and Stafford, and just ahead of Rivers and Cousins. Guess who was 33rd? They say he couldn't make the big play when the game was in the line. Good luck in expecting Darnold to have game winning drives. Maybe Joe Brady is overrated as an offensive genius - It's easy to look good when your QB is Brees or Burrow. Just ask Adam Gase.

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34 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

By the eye test, Teddy had a lot more good plays at QB than Darnold last year. He had two 1,000 WRs. He showed moxie as a runner. His running game wasn't good, the top 2 RBs averaged 3.8 and 3.9 ypc, just a little better than the Jets top 2 RBs who averaged 3.5 and 3.6. His QBR was 17th of 33, just below Ryan and Stafford, and just ahead of Rivers and Cousins. Guess who was 33rd? They say he couldn't make the big play when the game was in the line. Good luck in expecting Darnold to have game winning drives. Maybe Joe Brady is overrated as an offensive genius - It's easy to look good when your QB is Brees or Burrow. Just ask Adam Gase.

I'd say Darnold has more upside than Bridgewater based on skill-sets. It then becomes a question of whether he reaches that upside. Right now Bridgewater is the better QB by any objective statistical measure - but I admit Matt Rhule and Joe Brady have a better subjective eye than I do, so maybe they see a way to turn Sam around and help him reach that upside. 

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7 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I guess they had to do that after the trade and makes sense in that context. It has potential to really screw them over next year when they are already short a second and fourth rounder though. On the flip side if he does work out after a fresh, $19MM is a fairly reasonable contract.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I guess they had to do that after the trade and makes sense in that context. It has potential to really screw them over next year when they are already short a second and fourth rounder though. On the flip side if he does work out after a fresh, $19MM is a fairly reasonable contract.

I think its more of a confidence booster than anything.  Basically saying "hey man you are our guy for 2 seasons, no pressure on year 1"  That kind of thing.  Plus like you said 18 million will be nothing in 2022 when the cap skyrockets.  No brainer move IMO

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19 hours ago, rockaction said:

This is very untrue. Darnold netted a sixth this year, and a second and fourth next, which is like a third and fifth given the value chart. He merited very little in return. And, actually, most smart NFL observers today, like Bill Barnwell on Twitter, are comparing him to other quarterbacks. Their names run the gamut from Blake Bortles to Christian Ponder. Or Chase Stuart of Football Perspective, notably not on the Sam bandwagon and using Pro-Football-Reference's stats to back it up. His ANY/A for the first three years, compared to the first three years of guys who had over 1000 attempts is atrocious. His ANY/A last year was 34th in the league out of 32. That's no lie. His EPA per play was a -1, which was dead last also. He was legendarily bad last year.

I think you misunderstood my post. It was that most people know that he was terrible last year. I was agreeing with you. 

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1 hour ago, ConstruxBoy said:

I think you misunderstood my post. It was that most people know that he was terrible last year. I was agreeing with you. 

I think I misunderstood it, too. Thanks for clarifying.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Is Carolina letting Darnold's contract run out after 2021 or are they looking to extend him? I'm not sure if the ability to exercise the 5th year option transfers with the contract. 

They already opted in on his 5th year contract option.

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3 hours ago, pantherclub said:

I think its more of a confidence booster than anything.  Basically saying "hey man you are our guy for 2 seasons, no pressure on year 1"  That kind of thing.  Plus like you said 18 million will be nothing in 2022 when the cap skyrockets.  No brainer move IMO

From what I have seen, 2022 is not supposed to have much of a cap jump. Projected to be like $192.5M in 2022 and $202.5M in 2023. Basically, an increase of $10M a year (the way it's usually been pre-COVID). The benefit of the new TV deal will happen downstream and not right away. I don't think there will be a year where the cap goes up a huge amount like it did that one season in the NBA when it was like the wild, wild west in free agency. So sure, 5 years from now the cap might be $50M more than it is now, but I don't think it will jump up by $50M in a single season any time soon (if ever). They set up the contract that way so players should be able to make more money across the life of the contract and not all at once (increasing the cap each year allows teams to spend more each year and attract free agents). Obviously they have announced what the plan is for the cap, but I would be surprised if suddenly there was a mountain of money available all at once.

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

With the guys around him, I can see him having a Baker Mayfield/Philip Rivers-esque season of 3500/25/10 or so. 

Now that's not setting your fantasy league on fire, of course. But it is a little usable.

Bridgewater had 3733/15/11 in 15 games last year. However, Bridgewater added 279/5 rushing. So he accounted for a total of 4000+/20 combined in 15 games. (Philip Walker had 258/1/2 in the game Bridgewater missed for combined passing totals of 3991/16/13.)

Carolina is down Curtis Samuel this year, so that won't help any. CMC would probably help with his receiving numbers added back in. Hard to tell, as the receiving production might just be distributed differently with him coming back.

In Darnold's best season, combining rushing and passing numbers, the most he produced was 3086/21 (in 13 games). Bottom line, Darnold might be able to be the 2022 version of Teddy Bridgewater (who ranked as fantasy QB19 in 2020) or a slightly better version of Kyle Allen (who ranked as QB27 in 2019). If I had to project Darnold, I would slot him as a mediocre QB2 option in a 12 team league.

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That being said, Darnold could still be a guy to have around for those that buy into the QBBC concept. You can still win in fantasy having 3 average fantasy QBs while playing the one with the best matchup each week. I have won many a league that way. Usually one of those guys will do better than expected, so you end up getting decent production overall from the QB position with very little investment into the position. Clearly there's more work involved than just drafting Mahomes or Rodgers, but you can load up and have great depth at other positions in the draft and have a deep roster that way.

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Panthers' gamble on Sam Darnold makes sense; Kyle Pitts is the 2021 NFL draft's best player

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Beauty lies in the eye of the beholder.

Not to get all philosophical on everyone, but this well-worn axiom perfectly encapsulates the scouting process for NFL executives, scouts and coaches. Evaluators develop an affinity for prospects during their collegiate years, and that infatuation can encourage some scouts to dismiss a player's ensuing failures with another NFL team.

This immediately came to mind when the Carolina Panthers sent three draft picks (a 2021 sixth-round selection, plus second- and fourth-rounders in 2022) to the New York Jets in exchange for Sam Darnold. It's apparent that the team's belief in the fourth-year pro stems from how its general manager and scouts viewed the former No. 3 overall pick as a prospect.

"Sam is a guy that, going back to when he was coming out of USC, he was a guy I really liked," first-year Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer said during Monday's virtual press conference. "Liked the competitor, liked the toughness, his ability to move in the pocket. He can make big plays down the field with his arm. So all those things really stood out about him. I just think in this offense with (coordinator) Joe Brady, with (head coach) Matt Rhule, the weapons we have around him, that he can take that next step with us.

"I was really excited to add someone of Sam's caliber to our team."

The effusive praise from Carolina's new general manager -- who was the Seahawks' co-director of player personnel when Darnold entered the NFL in 2018 -- might draw some quizzical looks from observers, considering Darnold's stat line from his first three seasons as a pro. The quarterback owns a 13-25 career record with 45 touchdowns and 39 interceptions. He's completed 59.8 percent of his passes and has never ended a season above 26th in passer rating. In fact, Darnold finished as the NFL's lowest-rated passer in 2020 (72.7), 35th out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks. His career passer rating is 78.6, also dead last among qualifying QBs since 2018. Those putrid numbers are compounded by a checkered injury history that has seen him miss three games as a rookie (sprained foot), three games in 2019 (mononucleosis) and four games in 2020 (sprained throwing shoulder).

Typically, a combination of poor performance and durability concerns would lead most teams to bypass a struggling QB1. But the negative impact of his environment with the Jets -- particularly Adam Gase and his coaching philosophies -- has given Darnold's supporters hope that a change of scenery will help him find his game.

"The kid can play," a former Jets offensive assistant coach told me this week. "He is an alpha with the ability to make all of the throws. ... He is a hard worker who earns the respect of his teammates and he isn't afraid of the stage. We probably put too much on his shoulders and he struggled with all of the responsibility at the line of scrimmage. When we scaled it back at the end of 2019, he flourished as a player and the offense took off. ... If we stayed with that approach last season, he would've played better."

To that last point, Darnold certainly performed at a higher level over the final eight games of 2019. He connected on 163 of 267 passes (61%) for 1,947 yards (243.4 per game) with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. He topped 90.0 passer rating in four games (with two north of 120.0) while helping the Jets win six of the last eight down the stretch. The promise displayed in that span certainly piqued the interest of optimists hoping Darnold can find his way in a new offense in Carolina.

"If Darnold is put in an offense that is run-heavy with traditional play-action passes and bootlegs, he will have success," said the former Jets coach, who was on staff for multiple years with Darnold as the quarterback. "He can play, but he needs to be in an offense that matches his talent and ability. If Carolina plays to his strengths, he is good enough to win in this league."

Prior to my conversation with the coach, I had significant reservations about Darnold upgrading the Panthers' offense. I struggled with Darnold's inconsistencies as a passer -- particularly his turnover woes -- and had a difficult time envisioning him emerging as a mid-level starter. The film study and statistics suggested that Darnold was struggling at the position. In addition, I did not know if a new scheme and better personnel would mask the flaws that limit his game. Sure, Ryan Tannehill left Gase's side and blossomed into a Pro Bowl quarterback, but he had experienced some success in Miami prior to the coach's arrival. Darnold's small sample size makes his evaluation trickier. To have optimism requires having the imagination to focus on his upside and potential, as opposed to his failed Jets tenure. I still have my doubts, but my chat with the former Jets coach was illuminating. And clearly, hope springs in Charlotte.

"I'm more focused on Sam in our offense and what we can do with him here," Fitterer said. "I like the skill set. He's only 23 years old. A lot of these quarterbacks don't mature and hit their prime until 24, 25, 26. If this is a quarterback we can hit on at this price, it's definitely worth the gamble."

Fitterer has a point there. The draft capital Carolina surrendered in exchange for a former top-five pick was pretty minimal. So it does feel like the gamble is a sensible one for a team that features an offense with an A+ offensive weapon in the backfield ( Christian McCaffrey) and a pair of talented pass catchers on the perimeter (D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson).

If Brady can unlock Darnold's potential as a playmaker in a diverse scheme that features a mix of traditional concepts and some of USC's RPO and quick-rhythm tactics, we could see the young passer finally live up to his lofty draft pedigree.

 

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On 4/6/2021 at 12:44 PM, Dr. Octopus said:

I do thank the media for constantly bringing up the "Gase effect" and how much better Tannehill was after he left Miami - because that noise surely helped the Jets get a pretty decent package for a QB that was ranked 32nd in the league last season. 

I am actually very curios to see if Darnold takes a big leap next season - I'll fully admit that it's surely possible. I think it's also possible he gets benched at some point, especially if Carolina doesn't extend him before the season starts.

Poor mans Jay Cutler.

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I’m more optimistic than other Jets fans in here regarding his prospects . I think he’s going to be pretty good for Carolina. A 23 year old kid got overwhelmed by bad coaching and a terrible OL. PFF ranked the Jets OL as the 4th worst last year, and I think that was an improvement on 2019. His WR1 was Crowder. His starting RB was 37 year old Frank Gore. He will still throw interceptions but he flashes some really nice talent here and there, and now he has the right coaches and a talented group of skill players to throw to.  He already has pretty good chemistry with Robbie Anderson. I think his range of outcomes is as wide as any non rookie QB in the league. He was a class act in NY. Wishing him success 

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6 hours ago, LBH said:

I’m more optimistic than other Jets fans in here regarding his prospects . I think he’s going to be pretty good for Carolina. A 23 year old kid got overwhelmed by bad coaching and a terrible OL. PFF ranked the Jets OL as the 4th worst last year, and I think that was an improvement on 2019. His WR1 was Crowder. His starting RB was 37 year old Frank Gore. He will still throw interceptions but he flashes some really nice talent here and there, and now he has the right coaches and a talented group of skill players to throw to.  He already has pretty good chemistry with Robbie Anderson. I think his range of outcomes is as wide as any non rookie QB in the league. He was a class act in NY. Wishing him success 

What’s this...an objective opinion on Sam Darnold?! Can’t. Compute. 

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9 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

What’s this...an objective opinion on Sam Darnold?! Can’t. Compute. 

Just because an opinion wasn’t what YOU wanted to hear, doesn’t mean it’s not an accurate or fair opinion. In fact I think people that actually watched him play every week are more qualified than people that just state obvious starting points that everyone knows: “duhh, Adam Gase sucks....”

ETA: stats and analytics are objective measures by the way. You know what else is subjective if I was the say a broken down car will automatically be better if you put in on a racetrack.

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12 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Just because an opinion wasn’t what YOU wanted to hear, doesn’t mean it’s not an accurate or fair opinion. In fact I think people that actually watched him play every week are more qualified than people that just state obvious starting points that everyone knows: “duhh, Adam Gase sucks....”

ETA: stats and analytics are objective measures by the way. You know what else is subjective if I was the say a broken down car will automatically be better if you put in on a racetrack.

We shall see. Like I said, if the problem in NY was predominantly Darnold, then whoever is drafted at 2 should immediately come in and start making waves, winning some games here and there and putting up some solid numbers. And if Darnold stinks as much as you guys say, he should likely be benched by Week 7 or 8 in Carolina. Time will tell. 

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4 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

We shall see. Like I said, if the problem in NY was predominantly Darnold, then whoever is drafted at 2 should immediately come in and start making waves, winning some games here and there and putting up some solid numbers. And if Darnold stinks as much as you guys say, he should likely be benched by Week 7 or 8 in Carolina. Time will tell. 

See you love to twist things. No Jets fan has said the problem was “predominantly Darnold”, you already tried to make that lame joke a page or two back.

Every Jets fan will fully 100% support the premise that Darnold was not put in a great situation to succeed. Gase is a terrible HC, the Jets o-line was very bad and their skill position players were below average. All of those things can be true while it’s also true that Darnold showed the inability to even slightly rise above it. 

Everyone has also said he’s going to a better situation in Carolina, which will obviously help, but it doesn’t mean he will be successful necessarily. He’ll need to capitalize on it.

Lets flip this around. Instead of being smug and dismissing Jets’ fans opinions as just spurned lovers, you tell me in an objective manner why Sam Darnold is good. You tell me what stats, what analytical measures or otherwise tells you that Darnold was only bad because he was on the Jets. You can throw in some subjective measures as well. Why do you think HE is much better than he looked or than his statistics tell you - without bringing up how bad his support was.

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26 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

He’ll need to capitalize on it.

And I believe he will. Ideally, this works out for both teams. That’s a possibility as well that I don’t think many people are considering. It’ll be...interesting. If Darnold does indeed blow in Charlotte, no one will have to @me. I’ve been wrong before and I’ll be wrong again. I’ll take my crow in stride. 

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12 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

See you love to twist things. No Jets fan has said the problem was “predominantly Darnold”, you already tried to make that lame joke a page or two back.

Every Jets fan will fully 100% support the premise that Darnold was not put in a great situation to succeed. Gase is a terrible HC, the Jets o-line was very bad and their skill position players were below average. All of those things can be true while it’s also true that Darnold showed the inability to even slightly rise above it. 

Everyone has also said he’s going to a better situation in Carolina, which will obviously help, but it doesn’t mean he will be successful necessarily. He’ll need to capitalize on it.

Lets flip this around. Instead of being smug and dismissing Jets’ fans opinions as just spurned lovers, you tell me in an objective manner why Sam Darnold is good. You tell me what stats, what analytical measures or otherwise tells you that Darnold was only bad because he was on the Jets. You can throw in some subjective measures as well. Why do you think HE is much better than he looked or than his statistics tell you - without bringing up how bad his support was.

I already provided my opinion on Darnold (not sure he is much of an upgrade over Bridgewater). However, of all the college QBs that came out from 2014-2021, NFL.com's Lance Zierlein had Darnold the second highest rated QB (7.1) behind only Trevor Lawrence (7.4).

Granted, a lot has happened since Darnold first suited up for the Jets and maybe he was not as good as first projected, but he's played 3 seasons already in the league and is 6 months younger than Joe Burrow.

Burrrow's PFF grade last year was 75.1. Andy Dalton's in 2019 was 66.5. Darnold's grade last year was 58.4. Bridgewater's was 66.0. Connecting a lot of theoretical dots, could Darnold be an improvement in CAR over Bridgewater like Burrow was over Dalton (Bridgwater and Dalton graded out about the same)? I suppose that is possible. But who knows how likely an expectation that is.

I posted earlier in one of these QB threads that there is probably less of a hit rate on recycled Top 10 QB picks on new teams than there is for the hit rate of Top 10 QB picks on their original team. In Darnold's case, the bar on his performance and productivity for the Jets was so low that he could improve some in CAR and still be below average.

That being said, it's an interesting discussion to have analyzing all the QBs that moved around this off season in teams of which teams got the best value between ability, draft picks given up, cap hits, salary they have to pay out, etc.

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1 minute ago, JoeJoe88 said:

And I believe he will. Ideally, this works out for both teams. That’s a possibility as well that I don’t think many people are considering. It’ll be...interesting. If Darnold does indeed blow in Charlotte, no one will have to @me. I’ve been wrong before and I’ll be wrong again. I’ll take my crow in stride. 

Yes, there is surely a possibility that Darnold turns it around with better coaching and better surrounding talent - in fact it would be very tough for his statistics not to look better.

I said earlier that Rhule and Brady clearly would have a better subjective opinion of Darnold than me, and they may see something in him that they can work with - although desperation can work against one’s decision making as well.

I guess what I take offense to is that no one wants to pin ANY blame on Darnold for his lack of success and just wants to repeat these tried excuses (which do of course have some validity).

Personally I think “adequate” is the best case scenario for Darnold at this point - but I’ve been wrong plenty of times either.

I did notice you avoided the question about what he does well though.

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I did notice you avoided the question about what he does well though.

Well, you said "without bringing up how bad his support was."  I'm assuming that means coaching staff and his offensive counterparts, correct?  I already made it clear in this thread once that the main reason I believe Darnold succeeds in Carolina is because of the massive upgrades he's going to have across the board. This was right after you said Wilson would have a better year than him this year. I never said the guy was Patrick Mahomes.  I just don't believe he's a bottom 5 starter in this league that this thread would lead you to believe.  I think he can make about any throw in the book when he's not on his back or running for his life.  I like his athleticism and the fact that he's not a statue in the pocket.  He's still so young-dude was the youngest QB to start a game since 1970, so theoretically he still has a lot of room to grow.  He's had stretches where he looks like a more than capable QB, even on the putrid Jets.  The final 8 games of 2019, for example.  1,947 yards, 13 tds to 4 picks.  Won 6 out of 8. He does have to do a much better job of recognizing pressure, that's for sure.  And just better decision making overall.  Again, things I believe he'll struggle less with on a better team.

On 4/6/2021 at 3:05 PM, JoeJoe88 said:
On 4/6/2021 at 2:45 PM, rockaction said:

I'd keep my memory short if I ever made this bet. Wilson just has to outperform Darnold. You know how many 200 yard games Darnold had this year? 200 in today's game? Four out of twelve starts. That's repugnant. I'll take that bet any and all day.

I’m aware of the specifics, thanks. I’m betting more on CMC, Moore, and Anderson over anything that NY puts on the field. Wilson may be the better player eventually, but that’s not what we’re discussing. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

 This was right after you said Wilson would have a better year than him this year.

 

For the record I said this:

Quote

I'd be willing to bet Wilson easily outperforms Darnold's best season with the Jets, and I'd even roll the dice that he has a better 2021.

 

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

For the record I said this:

 

Right. Doesn’t “roll the dice” = I’m saying/doing this? When I’m playing Texas Hold Em’ and I’m debating on whether or not to call a $1500 all-in bet on the river, I might say I’m going to roll the dice and make the call, even though I’m not sure of the outcome. Or perhaps I’m misunderstanding. 

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Just now, JoeJoe88 said:

Right. Doesn’t “roll the dice” = I’m saying/doing this? When I’m playing Texas Hold Em’ and I’m debating on whether or not to call a $1500 all-in bet on the river, I might say I’m going to roll the dice and make the call, even though I’m not sure of the outcome. Or perhaps I’m misunderstanding. 

Yes - I'm saying if I had to make that choice I'd take my chances with Wilson having the better season in 2021 but "rolling the dice" does not imply the confidence you were assigning it.

I am confident that Wilson/Fields will have a better 2021 than any season Sam had with the Jets though - and to be honest I'm not even sure if Wilson or Fields will excel in the NFL.

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I just want you to admit that you WANT him to have a bad career with the Panthers. Similar to how most Georgia fans WANTED Fields to have a bad career at Ohio State. It's OK to admit that and it lets other readers of this thread understand your POV. 

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14 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

I just want you to admit that you WANT him to have a bad career with the Panthers. Similar to how most Georgia fans WANTED Fields to have a bad career at Ohio State. It's OK to admit that and it lets other readers of this thread understand your POV. 

You seem to have this odd fixation on this point. Very weird. 

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1 hour ago, ConstruxBoy said:

I just want you to admit that you WANT him to have a bad career with the Panthers. Similar to how most Georgia fans WANTED Fields to have a bad career at Ohio State. It's OK to admit that and it lets other readers of this thread understand your POV. 

Well the Jets have the Panthers second round pick next season so I suppose it would be better if Sam fails there and the Jets get a high second in 2022. I'm not delusional enough to think my words in this thread will have any affect on whether Darnold fails at his next stop though - so I don't really get your point at all. 

However, I think what's caused me to keep responding here is the silly notion that my opinion (and other Jets' fans) gets dismissed as "sour grapes" by Carolina fans or Darnold fantasy owners, as if we all have blinders on a don't want to believe the Jets have been mismanaged over the last few seasons and that we're pretending it's all Sam's fault and once he's gone all of our problems will be solved! 

Anyway, I've had my say here. I'm not rooting against Darnold. He's a good kid. He was not done any favors during his time here and he was a class act and a hard worker the entire 3 seasons he was a Jet. Obviously I would have loved for him to have shown signs of being a franchise QB, but unfortunately he regressed. I'll wait and see what happens and stop commenting here.

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

For the record I said this:

Yeah, that's what I was going off of. Not that Darnold would have a worse year this year than Wilson. That would be a stupid bet. JoeJoe88 re-wrote the bet already. I didn't bother with it when he did that (and he can quote his response to me saying it's a stupid bet all he wants, it doesn't change what he bet on), because it was dumb to begin with. He bet Wilson would have a worse year this year than any Darnold had had with the Jets. Not what he'd do in Carolina. But JoeJoe88 knows that, and his bet was stupid. And is stupid. And so is this discussion.

Darnold was all kinds of putrid and everybody knows it. That he didn't have talent or coaching around him like other players have had is true. That he stunk is also, by any measure, objectively true. He was awful. His 4.5 or so ANY/A this year is one of the worst in recent memory for a starter.

And ConstruxBoy isn't worth the time about this. His rationality has been shot. I don't know what these guys have invested in Darnold, but time watching him play isn't one of them.

Edited by rockaction
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Saw this Tweet today just now. Sam was terrible this year, and everybody knows it.

PFF Fantasy Football

@PFF_Fantasy

·57m

Lowest passer rating from a clean pocket in 2020

Carson Wentz - 82.5

Dwayne Haskins - 82.2

Sam Darnold - 81.7

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8 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Saw this Tweet today just now. Sam was terrible this year, and everybody knows it.

PFF Fantasy Football

@PFF_Fantasy

·57m

Lowest passer rating from a clean pocket in 2020

Carson Wentz - 82.5

Dwayne Haskins - 82.2

Sam Darnold - 81.7

Now we can seamlessly blame that on the lack of WR talent, or Gase's playcalling, or Sam's mono, or.......

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28 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, that's what I was going off of. Not that Darnold would have a worse year this year than Wilson. That would be a stupid bet. JoeJoe88 re-wrote the bet already. I didn't bother with it when he did that (and he can quote his response to me saying it's a stupid bet all he wants, it doesn't change what he bet on), because it was dumb to begin with. He bet Wilson would have a worse year this year than any Darnold had had with the Jets. Not what he'd do in Carolina. But JoeJoe88 knows that, and his bet was stupid. And is stupid. And so is this discussion.

Darnold was all kinds of putrid and everybody knows it. That he didn't have talent or coaching around him like other players have had is true. That he stunk is also, by any measure, objectively true. He was awful. His 4.5 or so ANY/A this year is one of the worst in recent memory for a starter.

And ConstruxBoy isn't worth the time about this. His rationality has been shot. I don't know what these guys have invested in Darnold, but time watching him play isn't one of them.

He's the same player now that he was at SC. He received zero development. That does not mean that he will develop, but in this particular instance I don't think what he did while on that disaster of a team matters. He came into the league in need of coaching in order to overcome his flaws and he quite simply has not gotten any. 

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26 minutes ago, rockaction said:

eah, that's what I was going off of. Not that Darnold would have a worse year this year than Wilson. That would be a stupid bet. JoeJoe88 re-wrote the bet already. I didn't bother with it when he did that (and he can quote his response to me saying it's a stupid bet all he wants, it doesn't change what he bet on), because it was dumb to begin with. He bet Wilson would have a worse year this year than any Darnold had had with the Jets. Not what he'd do in Carolina. But JoeJoe88 knows that, and his bet was stupid. And is stupid. And so is this discussion.

I’m not sure what you’re talking about with me “re-writing a bet.” You seem to get confused a lot on these forums. I’d suggest you go back and read the sequence of posts beginning with me saying “I’d take that bet.” Everything was quoted clearly as to what we were talking about. You were pounding your chest pretty adamantly about it a few pages ago, I don’t know why you’re trying to hedge yourself now with pretending you were referring to Wilson having a better rookie season than any that Darnold ever had. But I agree with you on one thing: this is stupid. I’m out. Good luck in the draft. 

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  • Joe Bryant changed the title to QB Sam Darnold, CAR

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