Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

QB Sam Darnold, CAR


Soulfly3

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I’m not sure what you’re talking about with me “re-writing a bet.” You seem to get confused a lot on these forums. I’d suggest you go back and read the sequence of posts beginning with me saying “I’d take that bet.” Everything was quoted clearly as to what we were talking about. You were pounding your chest pretty adamantly about it a few pages ago, I don’t know why you’re trying to hedge yourself now with pretending you were referring to Wilson having a better rookie season than any that Darnold ever had. But I agree with you on one thing: this is stupid. I’m out. Good luck in the draft. 

I don't get confused a lot on these forums. At all. I think a lot of people leave unwritten #### and then when clarified try to back out of their position. I was pretty clearly responding to what Dr. Octopus said. No way I'm saying a rookie in a Jets uniform will have a better year than a fourth year guy with D.J. Moore, Anderson, and McCaffrey. Nor was Dr. Octopus, like you tried to pin on him this morning. It's right in the pages. You're confused, baby. That's what that is. Don't pin it on me. Yeah, I was pounding my chest because almost anybody, even Dwayne Haskins, could have a better year than Sam did last year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, rockaction said:

I don't get confused a lot on these forums. At all. I think a lot of people leave unwritten #### and then when clarified try to back out of their position. I was pretty clearly responding to what Dr. Octopus said. No way I'm saying a rookie in a Jets uniform will have a better year than a fourth year guy with D.J. Moore, Anderson, and McCaffrey. Nor was Dr. Octopus, like you tried to pin on him this morning. It's right in the pages. You're confused, baby. That's what that is. Don't pin it on me. Yeah, I was pounding my chest because almost anybody, even Dwayne Haskins, could have a better year than Sam did last year.

 

2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:
2 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

 

Yes - I'm saying if I had to make that choice I'd take my chances with Wilson having the better season in 2021 but "rolling the dice" does not imply the confidence you were assigning it.

Care to explain, baby? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/6/2021 at 6:43 AM, Dr. Octopus said:

I'd be willing to bet Wilson easily outperforms Darnold's best season with the Jets, and I'd even roll the dice that he has a better 2021. 

@JoeJoe88

This is the bet you made, JoeJoe88. You're the confused one. It starts right here. Don't ever say I get confused often on these boards when you have no reading comprehension. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, rockaction said:

@JoeJoe88

This is the bet you made, JoeJoe88. You're the confused one. It starts right here. Don't ever say I get confused often on these boards when you have no reading comprehension. 

LOL. I like how you completely disregard that I was responding too AND quoted the last part of his statement. Like, its literally right there if you just look. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, JoeJoe88 said:

LOL. I like how you completely disregard that I was responding too AND quoted the last part of his statement. Like, its literally right there if you just look. 

Yeah, what he'd bet on is right there. He said twice he'd bet on Wilson having a better year than the best year Sam had with the Jets. Says he'd "roll the dice" on 2021. Hardly sounds like bet to me. His memory is the same as mine that that was the main clause and main intent. Guess you feel differently. No matter. It's not like anything was really at stake.

Other than pride.

Crushing pride of watching Sam flail in Carolina, most likely.

  • Like 1
  • Laughing 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Witz said:

You seem to have this odd fixation on this point. Very weird. 

I think it's interesting when people cannot disclose their biases. Just trying to help that in this thread. :shrug:

 

FTR, I'm a Bills fan foremost and a Penn State alum. So I like that the Jets have sucked recently and I like that Darnold looked bad because it helps take heat off the Giants for the Barkley pick at 2. 

Now I also live in Charlotte so it would be nice to see him succeed with the Panthers, although I've always been rooting for Teddy. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Well the Jets have the Panthers second round pick next season so I suppose it would be better if Sam fails there and the Jets get a high second in 2022. I'm not delusional enough to think my words in this thread will have any affect on whether Darnold fails at his next stop though - so I don't really get your point at all. 

However, I think what's caused me to keep responding here is the silly notion that my opinion (and other Jets' fans) gets dismissed as "sour grapes" by Carolina fans or Darnold fantasy owners, as if we all have blinders on a don't want to believe the Jets have been mismanaged over the last few seasons and that we're pretending it's all Sam's fault and once he's gone all of our problems will be solved! 

Anyway, I've had my say here. I'm not rooting against Darnold. He's a good kid. He was not done any favors during his time here and he was a class act and a hard worker the entire 3 seasons he was a Jet. Obviously I would have loved for him to have shown signs of being a franchise QB, but unfortunately he regressed. I'll wait and see what happens and stop commenting here.

Good post. What I was looking for, TBH. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, that's what I was going off of. Not that Darnold would have a worse year this year than Wilson. That would be a stupid bet. JoeJoe88 re-wrote the bet already. I didn't bother with it when he did that (and he can quote his response to me saying it's a stupid bet all he wants, it doesn't change what he bet on), because it was dumb to begin with. He bet Wilson would have a worse year this year than any Darnold had had with the Jets. Not what he'd do in Carolina. But JoeJoe88 knows that, and his bet was stupid. And is stupid. And so is this discussion.

Darnold was all kinds of putrid and everybody knows it. That he didn't have talent or coaching around him like other players have had is true. That he stunk is also, by any measure, objectively true. He was awful. His 4.5 or so ANY/A this year is one of the worst in recent memory for a starter.

And ConstruxBoy isn't worth the time about this. His rationality has been shot. I don't know what these guys have invested in Darnold, but time watching him play isn't one of them.

To be fair, I'm not worth the time about much. 

  • Thinking 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's also funny to be in a similar situation as this one as a Sabres fan regarding Taylor Hall. He really sucked here on a bad team with bad coaching. I don't think he's that good anymore. So I hope to be "vindicated" by him not doing much with the Bruins. But I'm not actively rooting against him. Maybe he'll light it up. Of course that makes the 2nd round pick the Sabres receive worse. 

Pretty similar situation actually. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

It's also funny to be in a similar situation as this one as a Sabres fan regarding Taylor Hall. He really sucked here on a bad team with bad coaching. I don't think he's that good anymore. So I hope to be "vindicated" by him not doing much with the Bruins. But I'm not actively rooting against him. Maybe he'll light it up. Of course that makes the 2nd round pick the Sabres receive worse. 

Pretty similar situation actually. 

I understand the parallel here, but Taylor Hall has a significantly larger sample size of elite level success.  It's therefore easier to correlate his struggles to Buffalo specifically at the moment, especially with how Eichel has struggled as well.  Also Hall was a FA signing, whereas Darnold cost the Jets so much draft capital relative to his return that it can make you cry.  

We've never seen Darnold perform at a fraction of the level of success Hall had at points in time (with 2 different franchises) so we're all left chicken or the egging if it was Darnold or the Jets who really caused this problem, and the reality is its both.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, sheerterror said:

I understand the parallel here, but Taylor Hall has a significantly larger sample size of elite level success.  It's therefore easier to correlate his struggles to Buffalo specifically at the moment, especially with how Eichel has struggled as well.  Also Hall was a FA signing, whereas Darnold cost the Jets so much draft capital relative to his return that it can make you cry.  

We've never seen Darnold perform at a fraction of the level of success Hall had at points in time (with 2 different franchises) so we're all left chicken or the egging if it was Darnold or the Jets who really caused this problem, and the reality is its both.  

Good points. Thanks!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, ConstruxBoy said:

I think it's interesting when people cannot disclose their biases. Just trying to help that in this thread. :shrug:

 

FTR, I'm a Bills fan foremost and a Penn State alum. So I like that the Jets have sucked recently and I like that Darnold looked bad because it helps take heat off the Giants for the Barkley pick at 2. 

Now I also live in Charlotte so it would be nice to see him succeed with the Panthers, although I've always been rooting for Teddy. 

Fair enough.

I don’t know any Jets fans (even those posting in here) that want him to fail or not succeed. 

As Jets fans I think we all wanted him to succeed during his time as a Jet. That said, he just didn’t pan out as expected. He certainly wasn’t the first and won’t be the last player that didn’t live up to expectations. When those in this thread are pointing out his flaws, issues, etc - they are just referring to what they’ve seen and experienced watching him play these past few years. 

I believe they are also saying that while he could succeed in a new environment, his past experiences don’t seem lend themselves to future success but who knows.

I hope he succeeds as I have nothing against him at all. Why wouldn’t you want him to succeed (now if he went to a divisional rival that’s a different story!)? 

Seemed like a nice enough guy so nothing but best wishes! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, I guess the only reason I wouldn't want him to succeed is to confirm what we already know? That the Jets were a tire fire under Maccagnan and Gase, and it took them a year too long to get their organization back in order and have the HC report to the GM to report to the owner?

That is was mismanaged beyond belief doesn't change the fact that Sam, on the football field, was terrible even when given the opportunity to succeed.

I keep pointing to Justin Herbert. Everything stacked against him, and the young man looked like Marino. Constantly.

Darnold showed three flashes the entire time I watched him. I'll admit, most of last year was too painful to watch. But here are his plays.

The throw against Dallas to Anderson deep from 2019.

The throw against Indy while scrambling from 2020.

The throw against SF that recently became the Twitter sensation from 2020.

That's it. Them's the highlights. Three years!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, osubuckeyeman said:

Carolina was a good spot for him to land.  Charlotte is a very cool place and a nice place to live.

Really, an ideal spot. Plus them picking up his option so he doesn't have to worry about that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Really, an ideal spot. Plus them picking up his option so he doesn't have to worry about that.

Do we literally mean an ideal spot (ie as in a place to live) . . . or do we mean to excel on the field? If people mean the latter, I can't really say I agree. CAR ranked 24th in scoring, 21st in offensive yardage, 18th in passing yards, 28th in TD passes, and 18th in offensive line play (which has since had several additions and subtractions this off season). They also lost Curtis Samuel to free agency. I'm all for the power of positive thinking, but the best selling point for Darnold's potential success is at least it's not the Jets.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Do we literally mean an ideal spot (ie as in a place to live) . . . or do we mean to excel on the field? If people mean the latter, I can't really say I agree. CAR ranked 24th in scoring, 21st in offensive yardage, 18th in passing yards, 28th in TD passes, and 18th in offensive line play (which has since had several additions and subtractions this off season). They also lost Curtis Samuel to free agency. I'm all for the power of positive thinking, but the best selling point for Darnold's potential success is at least it's not the Jets.

You can't really use stats like that to prove a point where the quarterback is a dependent variable there. The stats become rudimentary because they're largely a function of Bridgewater. You have to look at the stats in a vacuum for the receivers, running backs, and offensive line. Look at things like accuracy of the QB (they chart it), shots attempted downfield, catch rates, drops, OL grades, etc. I'd charge that their ineptitude was largely due to Teddy. He got a poor PFF grade and was gotten rid of (well, presumably) within the year that he began. That's not a vote of confidence and Carolina nearly procured a hernia getting another guy, despite the limited draft capital they spent. (The tea leaves are there.)

I mean, I know there's something to be gleaned from traditional stats, but asserting that the offense was bad where the guy that handles the ball every snap was bad implicates the guy rather than his surrounding talent. You may disagree, but that's my take on the issue.

Edited by rockaction
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, rockaction said:

You can't really use stats like that to prove a point where the quarterback is a dependent variable there. The become rudimentary because they're largely a function of Bridgewater. You have to look at the stats in a vacuum for the receivers, running backs, and offensive line. Look at things like accuracy of the QB (they chart it), shots attempted downfield, catch rates, drops, OL grades, etc. I'd charge that their ineptitude was largely due to Teddy. He got a poor PFF grade and was gotten rid of within the year that he began. That's not a vote of confidence and Carolina nearly procured a hernia getting rid of him.

I mean, I know there's something to be gleaned from traditional stats, but asserting that the offense was bad where the guy that handles the ball every snap was bad implicates the guy rather than his surrounding talent. You may disagree, but that's my take on the issue.

PFF rated Bridgewater last year at 66.0. They rated Darnold at 58.4. So sure, the things you brought up incorporate the level of play of the QBs, the potential best outcomes of individual plays, the lack of vision to identify the best outcome, and poor decision-making. Based off of all of that, Bridgewater played a fair amount better than Darnold did, and by all accounts Bridgewater was terrible. 

Maybe Bridgewater had trouble fitting in, lacked practice time in a COVID year, or otherwise struggled to learn the offense and build chemistry. Now let's replace him with a guy that performed worse on the third year in an organization (not his first year). We'll have to see how training camp and practices go, but there's a decent chance Darnold has the same issues Bridgewater did on terms of learning the offense, getting in sync with the offense, and building a rapport with his receivers playing on a new team.

Maybe the Jets offensive scheme was so inept that the Panthers system will be refreshing, easy to learn, and more productive by comparison. But if that were the case, one would think Bridgewater would have done a lot better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

PFF rated Bridgewater last year at 66.0. They rated Darnold at 58.4. So sure, the things you brought up incorporate the level of play of the QBs, the potential best outcomes of individual plays, the lack of vision to identify the best outcome, and poor decision-making. Based off of all of that, Bridgewater played a fair amount better than Darnold did, and by all accounts Bridgewater was terrible. 

Maybe Bridgewater had trouble fitting in, lacked practice time in a COVID year, or otherwise struggled to learn the offense and build chemistry. Now let's replace him with a guy that performed worse on the third year in an organization (not his first year). We'll have to see how training camp and practices go, but there's a decent chance Darnold has the same issues Bridgewater did on terms of learning the offense, getting in sync with the offense, and building a rapport with his receivers playing on a new team.

Maybe the Jets offensive scheme was so inept that the Panthers system will be refreshing, easy to learn, and more productive by comparison. But if that were the case, one would think Bridgewater would have done a lot better.

Oh, I'm not arguing Darnold will be better than Bridgewater. I wouldn't let the last few pages where I'm ardently arguing against Darnold be usurped by a post where I am mainly disagreeing with using the statistical measurements of the offense that you were using. Which you immediately recognize, and probably did so before you used them, it seems.

IOW, Bridgewater may very well be better than Darnold, but he still stunk enough to where you can't judge the rest of the Carolina offense because of it, which is what we're judging when we say Darnold landed in an ideal spot in the pros, given his circumstances and performance. And an ideal spot in the pros is what we were arguing. In fact, I can't think of another quarterback-needy team that is as good a spot to land excluding Denver, who has a good line and Sutton, Jeudy, Patrick, Fant, Hamler and Gordon. That'd be the best. Carolina is probably second.

I mean, Darnold got really blessed with this trade, IMO. The offense, as I claimed (and this is where your disagreement came in) is good, it was the quarterbacking that stunk. Losing Samuel hurts, as you pointed out in your first post, but If ever Darnold could prove something, it's in this situation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

T Bridgewater was bad throwing passes to- C Samuel, DJ Moore, R Anderson and M Davis,

who almost averaged 4 catches per game. S Darnold was bad with who?

You cannot compare their ratings unless their WR's/RB's were some what equal.

Not even close. S Darnold will be better with just the new talent around him.

I have no idea how much better, but it won't be worse than 2020 Bridgewater.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

Do we literally mean an ideal spot (ie as in a place to live) . . . or do we mean to excel on the field? If people mean the latter, I can't really say I agree. CAR ranked 24th in scoring, 21st in offensive yardage, 18th in passing yards, 28th in TD passes, and 18th in offensive line play (which has since had several additions and subtractions this off season). They also lost Curtis Samuel to free agency. I'm all for the power of positive thinking, but the best selling point for Darnold's potential success is at least it's not the Jets.

His coaching upgrade is massive. Maybe bigger.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

His coaching upgrade is massive. Maybe bigger.

This, too. The organizational structure around him seems better, especially the coach.

This isn't to pump up Darnold. It's just to say this is a second chance and a reprieve that many guys don't get.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, nightmare said:

T Bridgewater was bad throwing passes to- C Samuel, DJ Moore, R Anderson and M Davis,

who almost averaged 4 catches per game. S Darnold was bad with who?

You cannot compare their ratings unless their WR's/RB's were some what equal.

Not even close. S Darnold will be better with just the new talent around him.

I have no idea how much better, but it won't be worse than 2020 Bridgewater.

 

 

 

Crowder on the jets was a huge ppr cheat code for the 3 or so games before he and Darnold got hurt. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, rockaction said:

You can't really use stats like that to prove a point where the quarterback is a dependent variable there. The stats become rudimentary because they're largely a function of Bridgewater. You have to look at the stats in a vacuum for the receivers, running backs, and offensive line. Look at things like accuracy of the QB (they chart it), shots attempted downfield, catch rates, drops, OL grades, etc. I'd charge that their ineptitude was largely due to Teddy. He got a poor PFF grade and was gotten rid of (well, presumably) within the year that he began. That's not a vote of confidence and Carolina nearly procured a hernia getting another guy, despite the limited draft capital they spent. (The tea leaves are there.)

I mean, I know there's something to be gleaned from traditional stats, but asserting that the offense was bad where the guy that handles the ball every snap was bad implicates the guy rather than his surrounding talent. You may disagree, but that's my take on the issue.

Plus McCaffrey missed most of the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Plus McCaffrey missed most of the season.

A healthy CMC helps any QB and offense.   I don’t think Darnold will ever be great but he could be an average starter.   It’s these types of storylines that keep me interested in the NFL.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

A healthy CMC helps any QB and offense.   I don’t think Darnold will ever be great but he could be an average starter.   It’s these types of storylines that keep me interested in the NFL.  

I think this is what we are looking at for fantasy, a middle of the road QB2. From an NFL perspective I think he'll be a little below average with the upside of being a little above average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think this is what we are looking at for fantasy, a middle of the road QB2. From an NFL perspective I think he'll be a little below average with the upside of being a little above average.

I think there is more upside than that in our game. The Panthers defense was bad and still will be while the strength of the offense is in its skill positions. On-script Sam will dictate whether he can be rehabbed or not, but off-script Sam presents upside opportunities. Fair to be concerned about the line, but I expect that to be their priority in the draft.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very rare to see a case like Sam...not many QBs entering their 4th year get a full do over.  I mean wipe the slate clean do-over....like he's a rookie again.  Rhule/Brady are going to have to break him down to the studs and build him up again....except this time with solid coaching and weapons....best thing they can do is draft a stud tackle with their #8 pick as we've seen Sam does not do well with heavy pressure.  

Make no mistake about it - Sam has looked bad and he deserves the criticism he has gotten...but he's really young and the past 3 yrs did give him poise and leadership.  If Carolina plays this right there is no reasons he cant be a solid starter for them for 10 plus yrs. He will really need to be coached up on the bad picks and bonehead rookie mistakes but I think its possible....he had so little around him he was always trying to make a big play....its mind boggling how bad Gase/Mac were.  

As a Jets fan it would definitely hurt to see but there are consequences to making awful hires at GM and HC and Sam is the casualty.  I think its a great gamble by Carolina as it essentially is a 2 yr audition.  Hope it works out.....though it would be nice to have a high 2d rd pick next yr so maybe he develops well and they still only win a few!  lol

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Kiddnets said:

I think its a great gamble by Carolina as it essentially is a 2 yr audition.  Hope it works out.....though it would be nice to have a high 2d rd pick next yr so maybe he develops well and they still only win a few!  lol

If they are able to rehab Sam I think there is still a good chance this happens. Any course correction is going to take at least several weeks, so there's plenty of time for the losses to pile up and the arrow to also point up by season's end - especially with this defense. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Kiddnets said:

Very rare to see a case like Sam...not many QBs entering their 4th year get a full do over.  I mean wipe the slate clean do-over....like he's a rookie again.  Rhule/Brady are going to have to break him down to the studs and build him up again....except this time with solid coaching and weapons....best thing they can do is draft a stud tackle with their #8 pick as we've seen Sam does not do well with heavy pressure.  

Make no mistake about it - Sam has looked bad and he deserves the criticism he has gotten...but he's really young and the past 3 yrs did give him poise and leadership.  If Carolina plays this right there is no reasons he cant be a solid starter for them for 10 plus yrs. He will really need to be coached up on the bad picks and bonehead rookie mistakes but I think its possible....he had so little around him he was always trying to make a big play....its mind boggling how bad Gase/Mac were.  

As a Jets fan it would definitely hurt to see but there are consequences to making awful hires at GM and HC and Sam is the casualty.  I think its a great gamble by Carolina as it essentially is a 2 yr audition.  Hope it works out.....though it would be nice to have a high 2d rd pick next yr so maybe he develops well and they still only win a few!  lol

 

This. Sam could certainly go either way. Carolina seems like a pretty solid situation for him to rebuild.  Seems like a good kid and he handled everything as best he could, so I'm certainly not rooting against him personally

But as a Jets fan, I hope Carolina somehow stinks, obviously.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Kiddnets said:

Very rare to see a case like Sam...not many QBs entering their 4th year get a full do over.

I posted several pages ago how QBs that were drafted in the Top 10 overall fared moving on to a new team across the past 20 years. Granted, not all of them were in their early 20s.

HITS
Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer

TOO EARLY TO TELL
Mitch Trubisky (backup for now), Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota (backup for now), Cam Newton (wasn't very good last year), Matt Stafford

MISSES
Josh Rosen, Blake Bortles, Robert Griffin, Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Byron Leftwich, David Carr, Joey Harrington

Maybe Darnold was better than a bunch of these other guys. Maybe the Panthers have more talent and better coaches than these other teams. Maybe all Darnold needed was a change of scenery. But couldn't those same items applied to a bunch of these other players when they moved on to a different team?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I posted several pages ago how QBs that were drafted in the Top 10 overall fared moving on to a new team across the past 20 years. Granted, not all of them were in their early 20s.

HITS
Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer

TOO EARLY TO TELL
Mitch Trubisky (backup for now), Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota (backup for now), Cam Newton (wasn't very good last year), Matt Stafford

MISSES
Josh Rosen, Blake Bortles, Robert Griffin, Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Byron Leftwich, David Carr, Joey Harrington

Maybe Darnold was better than a bunch of these other guys. Maybe the Panthers have more talent and better coaches than these other teams. Maybe all Darnold needed was a change of scenery. But couldn't those same items applied to a bunch of these other players when they moved on to a different team?

interesting....looking at the list Id say that most if not all of the misses were in pretty tough situations that were nowhere near as good as Sam's current......very rare to get a 2 yr audition after with solid coaching and weapons after crashing....most on that list didnt have that...at least we know the excuses will be gone and we'll know what he can do by the end of 2022.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/6/2021 at 12:51 PM, Anarchy99 said:

Since I was curious about how things went for top QB picks that moved on, here is a list of former Top 10 picks that went on to play elsewhere over the past 20 years . . .


2018	Sam Darnold	3	TBD
2018	Josh Rosen	10	Already on 3rd team
2017	Mitch Trubisky	2	TBD but now a backup
2016	Jared Goff	1	TBD
2016	Carson Wentz	2	TBD
2015	Jameis Winston	1	TBD
2015	Marcus Mariota	2	TBD but now a backup
2014	Blake Bortles	3	Moved on to DEN and LAR
2012	Robert Griffin	2	7 starts in 4 years in CLE and BAL
2012	Ryan Tannehill	8	Blossomed in 2 years in TEN
2011	Cam Newton	1	Not great Year 1 in NE
2011	Blaine Gabbert	10	21 starts in 6 years on 4 teams
2010	Sam Bradford	1	Started for a year each in PHI and MIN, backup in ARI
2009	Matt Stafford	1	TBD
2009	Mark Sanchez	5	Mostly backup in 4 years with PHI, DAL, WAS
2006	Vince Young	1	1 year as a backup in PHI
2006	Matt Leinart	10	2 years a a backup in HOU and OAK
2005	Alex Smith	1	61-31 record as a starter since leaving SF
2004	Philip Rivers	4	1 year to close out his career in IND
2003	Carson Palmer	1	Had several strong seasons in OAK and ARI
2003	Byron Leftwich	7	6 starts in 5 years on 3 teams
2002	David Carr	1	4 starts in 5 years on 3 teams
2002	Joey Harrington	3	A year starting for MIA and another for ATL
2001	Michael Vick	1	Started 3.5 years for PHI then backup in NYJ and PIT

Guys that seemed to be successful in Act II were Tannehill, Smith, and Palmer. Vick is sort of in his own category, as he didn't have performance issues while in ATL, his legal issues kept him away. Many of the older examples went on to be backups. Too soon to tell on the handful of more recent players.

I looked at how the rest of the QBs that were First Round picks (#11-32) that switched teams. That list makes the Picks 1-10 list seem like a bunch of future HOFers by comparison.

2019	Dwayne Haskins	15	Now a backup
2016	Paxton Lynch	26	2 teams, 0 starts
2014	T Bridgewater	32	3 teams, 1 subpar year as a starter
2013	EJ Manual	16	2 teams, started 1 game
2012	Brandon Weeden	22	3 teams, started 1 game
2011	C Ponder	12	3 teams, 0 starts
2010	Tim Tebow	25	3 teams, 2 starts
2009	Josh Freeman	17	4 teams, 2 starts
2008	Joe Flacco	18	3 teams, 12 starts
2007	Brady Quinn	22	6 teams, 8 starts
2006	Jay Cutler	11	2 teams, 116 starts
2005	Jason Campbell	25	4 teams, 27 starts
2004	J.P. Losman	22	3 teams, 0 starts
2003	Kyle Boller	19	3 teams, 5 starts
2002	Rex Grossman	22	4 teams, 16 starts
2000	Chad Pennington	18	1 team, started for a season

Basically, Jay Cutler. Maybe Bridgewater can become an average starter somewhere. Pennington had a decent season for the Fins but that's about it. This list is basically appalling. So, yeah, bottom line, if you get drafted in the first round as a QB, you pretty much get one shot. Not many get a legit second chance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Basically, Jay Cutler. Maybe Bridgewater can become an average starter somewhere. Pennington had a decent season for the Fins but that's about it. This list is basically appalling. So, yeah, bottom line, if you get drafted in the first round as a QB, you pretty much get one shot. Not many get a legit second chance.

I tend to agree with you which is why I'm not sanguine about Sam's chances. But I also think not many guys got a chance to hold the reins with as good a contract situation and as good of an offense as Sam will have.

I'm not a professional scout, but the advanced stats even show that he's going to have to be an outlier given his first three years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/13/2021 at 12:26 PM, Anarchy99 said:

HITS
Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer

 

Alex Smith and Carson Palmer were both very good on the teams that drafted them taking their teams to the playoffs multiple times (Smith took a while to develop). Smith was traded away because the Niners became enamored with Kaepernik and Palmer forced his was out of Cincinnati by retiring until they traded him. They shouldn't even really count.

The only subset that should be looked at is highly drafted QBs that failed with their first team before moving on - which doesn't look favorable for Darnold, but obviously doesn't mean he can't find success at the next stop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Alex Smith and Carson Palmer were both very good on the teams that drafted them taking their teams to the playoffs multiple times (Smith took a while to develop). Smith was traded away because the Niners became enamored with Kaepernik and Palmer forced his was out of Cincinnati by retiring until they traded him. They shouldn't even really count.

The only subset that should be looked at is highly drafted QBs that failed with their first team before moving on - which doesn't look favorable for Darnold, but obviously doesn't mean he can't find success at the next stop.

Closest comparison on the list that I see is Tannenhill who coincidentally enough was also Gased.....I think Tanny would be the ceiling if things go well for Darnold which isnt too bad considering.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Kiddnets said:

Closest comparison on the list that I see is Tannenhill who coincidentally enough was also Gased.....I think Tanny would be the ceiling if things go well for Darnold which isnt too bad considering.

Tannehill was much better under Gase than Darnold was.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Tannehill was much better under Gase than Darnold was.

Yup, and Tanny was not good, it's just that Darnold was that bad. Have a hard time imagining Darnold being a viable starter. I'll root for him but feel like the odds are 5-10% at best.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Tannehill was much better under Gase than Darnold was.

He was, but he was also entering season #5 as a starter aged 28 when Gase was hired as opposed to Sam Darnold, who was 22.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Alex Smith and Carson Palmer were both very good on the teams that drafted them taking their teams to the playoffs multiple times (Smith took a while to develop). Smith was traded away because the Niners became enamored with Kaepernik and Palmer forced his was out of Cincinnati by retiring until they traded him. They shouldn't even really count.

The only subset that should be looked at is highly drafted QBs that failed with their first team before moving on - which doesn't look favorable for Darnold, but obviously doesn't mean he can't find success at the next stop.

I just covered anyone that fit the profile for whatever reason (drafted first round, ended up playing elsewhere). I agree that not every player had similar circumstances to Darnold. The point was the the data set didn't really showcase many hits (even fewer if you rule out the guys you mentioned).

That being said, none of those QBs were Darnold and none of the destinations were the 2021 Panthers. I would be the first to admit that prior results don't impact current outcomes. But as you mentioned, many other guys that switched teams didn't set the world on fire. That doesn't mean Darnold can't break that trend, and I am sure we could do more research to show that is chances of success may be greater than the list of other players. 

Another conceptual question at this point is this . . . what would a successful season be for Darnold? Better than he did as a Jet? Better than Bridgewater did for the Panthers? A season similar to some of the guys in or around his draft class that were drafted highly (Mayfield, Allen, Jackson, Watson, Mahomes)? A winning record or playoff berth?

He could be better than he was on the Jets and better than Bridgewater was last year . . . but that isn't exactly a high bar to clear. Just trying to get a better sense of what people think a good season for him translates to in terms of numbers, wins, etc.

Edited by Anarchy99
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I just covered anyone that fit the profile for whatever reason (drafted first round, ended up playing elsewhere). I agree that not every player had similar circumstances to Darnold. The point was the the data set didn't really showcase many hits (even fewer if you rule out the guys you mentioned).

That being said, none of those QBs were Darnold and none of the destinations were the 2021 Panthers. I would be the first to admit that prior results don't impact current outcomes. But as you mentioned, many other guys that switched teams didn't set the world on fire. That doesn't mean Darnold can't break that trend, and I am sure we could do more research to show that is chances of success may be greater than the list of other players. 

Another conceptual question at this point is this . . . what would a successful season be for Darnold? Better than he did as a Jet? Better than Bridgewater did for the Panthers? A season similar to some of the guys in or around his draft class that were drafted highly (Mayfield, Allen, Jackson, Watson, Mahomes)? A winning record or playoff berth?

He could be better than he was on the Jets and better than Bridgewater was last year . . . but that isn't exactly a high bar to clear. Just trying to get a better sense of what people think a good season for him translates to in terms of numbers, wins, etc.

20-0?

 

:unsure:

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

 

Another conceptual question at this point is this . . . what would a successful season be for Darnold? Better than he did as a Jet? Better than Bridgewater did for the Panthers? A season similar to some of the guys in or around his draft class that were drafted highly (Mayfield, Allen, Jackson, Watson, Mahomes)? A winning record or playoff berth?

Improved Panther offensive production and making the playoffs is a win for Carolina in the trade.

Much better completion percentage, more TDS and less ints for Darnold to bolster his future contract potential.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Tannehill was much better under Gase than Darnold was.

he definitely was - but I would still have characterized him as a bottom 10 starter under Gase....nitpicking at this point but anyway - Tanny went to a team with better weapons/coaching and he improved to a solid QB....certainly not elite....I think thats the best Sam/Car can hope for....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, rzrback77 said:

Improved Panther offensive production and making the playoffs is a win for Carolina in the trade.

Much better completion percentage, more TDS and less ints for Darnold to bolster his future contract potential.

As with most teams, they usually win more when they perform better defensively. I have been going back and forth with people about the Falcons lately, as the debate has been if they should draft a QB and move on from Ryan. I pointed out that the ATL defense has been poor, their offense has been decent to good (and one year almost record breaking).

In your scenario with Darnold, once again the Panthers will go as far as their defense can take them. Here's the recap from the past 5 years.

2020: 5-11, 350 PF, 402 PA, -52 differential
2019: 5-11, 340 PF, 470 PA, -130 differential
2018: 7-9, 376 PF, 382 PA, -6 differential
2017: 11-5, 363 PF, 327 PA, +36 differential
2016: 6-10, 369 PF, 402 PA, -33 differential

In general, CAR played better last year than in 2019 but did not improve in the win column. They lost 8 one score games. If you buy into things even out over time or those games typically can go either way, then they easily could have had 3-4 more wins last year. So looking just at the numbers, they were close to being a .500 team.

Can Darnold help them close out games? At this point who knows, but his record in one score games with the Jets was 9-12.

IMO, part of the issue for a lot of teams is they make so many changes in a brief timeframe that it is very difficult for anything to take root and develop. For example, Carolina in just a few years . . .

Coaches: Ron Rivera . . . Perry Fewell . . . Matt Rhule
Offensive Coordinators: Mike Shula . . . Norv Turner . . . Scott Turner . . . Joe Brady
Quarterbacks: Cam Newton . . . Kyle Allen . . . Teddy Bridgewater . . . Sam Darnold

Based off of last year, this is a make or break year for Rhule and Brady (another losing season and they most likely will be ousted) and for Darnold (if he shows no improvement it's unlikely any other team would give him a chance to start and he would be cast aside as a backup only moving forward).

So that being said, unless the defense improves, it's unlikely the team will have a better record. In terms of yardage, from 2020 to 2016 the Panthers ranked 21, 19, 10, 19, 19. So even with a fair amount of weapons, they really have been great at racking up yards. In terms of scoring, they ranked 24, 20, 14, 12, 15 (but there can be huge differences in team scoring rankings with just a swing of 1 or 2 points a game).

As I alluded to earlier, Darnold put up a 59.5% completion rate with 213 passing yards, 1.18 TD, and 1.03 INT per game over his career. Bridgewater posted 69.1%, 249 passing yards, 1 TD, and 0.73 INT per game last year. So an improvement for Darnold would be to get to where Bridgewater was last year . . . which no one was happy with and they were quick to move on from him. So Darnold would have to do significantly better than that (or the team would have to win way more) for them to be happy with Darnold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Based off of last year, this is a make or break year for Rhule and Brady (another losing season and they most likely will be ousted) and for Darnold (if he shows no improvement it's unlikely any other team would give him a chance to start and he would be cast aside as a backup only moving forward).

The Panthers had an ownership change in 2018. Specifics escape me, but the relationship deteriorated between the new guy (Tepper) and Rivera then later Hurney. Reasonable to assume when Rhule was given a 7 year deal and a multi year rebuild was insinuated that Hurney's days were numbered. 

Something I read recently (paraphrasing) - if they made the trade because Rhule and Brady want to work with Darnold and they think Gase is a clown then I am guardedly optimistic in this working. But if they made the trade because Tepper demanded they find someone other than Bridgewater and the coaches don’t like their draft options then so they were kinda forced into settling for Darnold then that's a major problem. And since we know so little about Tepper both of this scenarios are plausible.

Your post reminded of that because there's no logical reason either Rhule (7 year contract/multi year rebuild) or Brady are on the hot seat, but is Tepper logical. The answer to that question is likely the path this team takes - short and long term.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

The Panthers had an ownership change in 2018. Specifics escape me, but the relationship deteriorated between the new guy (Tepper) and Rivera then later Hurney. Reasonable to assume when Rhule was given a 7 year deal and a multi year rebuild was insinuated that Hurney's days were numbered. 

Something I read recently (paraphrasing) - if they made the trade because Rhule and Brady want to work with Darnold and they think Gase is a clown then I am guardedly optimistic in this working. But if they made the trade because Tepper demanded they find someone other than Bridgewater and the coaches don’t like their draft options then so they were kinda forced into settling for Darnold then that's a major problem. And since we know so little about Tepper both of this scenarios are plausible.

Your post reminded of that because there's no logical reason either Rhule (7 year contract/multi year rebuild) or Brady are on the hot seat, but is Tepper logical. The answer to that question is likely the path this team takes - short and long term.

The whole situation in Carolina strikes me as odd. I am not that familiar in timelines and changes in ownership and the front office, so I may be confusing some things. I know QB evaluation is an inexact science, but here were the PFF grades the Panthers have gotten over the past few seasons:

2020: Bridgewater 66.0 (was 73.0 the prior year in NO)
2019 : Allen 49.7
2018: Newton 70.9
2017: Newton 66.5
2016: Newton 68.5

It seems like they were eager to move on from Newton. He was oft-injured, mediocre, and not worth the money so that made sense. (Why NE wanted to hitch a ride with him is a whole other story.) It was pretty clear Allen was not going to be the solution. They had the 7th pick in the draft last year, they could have been in position (or gotten in position) to snag a QB. But they had signed Bridgewater to a 3 year deal before the draft (3 years, $63 million with $33 million guaranteed).

As things turned out, 3 QB got drafted before their pick. They only needed to move up a couple spots to draft someone . . . or move back to draft Jordan Love if they liked him.

Anyway, they gave Rhule 7 years for $60-70 million (which seems crazy to me for a coach that had one notable season as a college coach). If he didn't want Bridgewater, why did they sign him? Was he forced to sign him essentially even though he didn't want to? Which begs the question, did they dump Darnold on him too? Are they not allowing him to draft a QB? The whole things seems weird.

Even though Rhule has a long-term contract, I still thing coaches in the NFL that post multiple losing seasons are generally on the hot seat. He may have a longer leash than other coaches due to his contract, but IMO if they are still only a 5 or 6 win team after say 3 seasons I definitely think his job would be in jeopardy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Joe Bryant changed the title to QB Sam Darnold, CAR

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
  • Create New...