Coaches and GMs make bad decisions all the time. Miami got Rosen for a late 2nd round pick, so not as much as Carolina giving up a likely better 2nd rounder in 2022 and a 4th. Darnold is better than Rosen, although unlikely to be better than Teddy. What film did the Miami coaches see that sold them on a late 2nd for Rosen. It took me only a couple of exhibition games to know Rosen wasn't the answer. It took the Miami heat writers a few scrimmages. How many flashes of greatness or even averageness has Darnold shown in 3 years.
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QB Sam Darnold, MIN (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Soulfly3
- Start date
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I don't know if a change of scenery will help Darnold or not, but he's had 46 turnovers in 38 games, has a career passer rating of 78.6 (half of his career starts have been under 80), and his annual PFF grades have gotten worse each year not better (64.7 / 63.6 / 58.4). PFF rated Bridgewater (with more weapons) a little better than Darnold last year (66.0), so there's a decent chance things won't change all that much. Certainly having a healthy CMC would help. In the limited times I saw him play with the Jets, he looked lost and incapable . . . even if the play calling and personnel weren't great.
rockaction
Footballguy
This is very untrue. Darnold netted a sixth this year, and a second and fourth next, which is like a third and fifth given the value chart. He merited very little in return. And, actually, most smart NFL observers today, like Bill Barnwell on Twitter, are comparing him to other quarterbacks. Their names run the gamut from Blake Bortles to Christian Ponder. Or Chase Stuart of Football Perspective, notably not on the Sam bandwagon and using Pro-Football-Reference's stats to back it up. His ANY/A for the first three years, compared to the first three years of guys who had over 1000 attempts is atrocious. His ANY/A last year was 34th in the league out of 32. That's no lie. His EPA per play was a -1, which was dead last also. He was legendarily bad last year.
MAC_32
Footballguy
If you're looking for a qb in 2022 then Darnold probably makes more sense than Teddy.
With Teddy the team will win just enough games not to be able to get one, like this year. If Sam can't be fixed then that won't be a problem. This team will be at the top of the draft.
But I'm not throwing in the towel on Sam just yet. Cause the stats don't matter. He came to the league under developed, flawed, mistake prone, and in need of development. Then he was tasked with doing that under Adam Gase in a toxic organization with no talent. Oooooh...kay.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I think this is good comparison. Still, not a real expensive chance to take. Offensive players seem to do better when they leave Gase.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
According to Bert Breer, CAR has been both trying to acquire Darnold and trade Bridgewater since the SB. Apparently not much interest in Teddy, or at least not at what they hope to get back in return. He also said across that time the Panthers didn't love the QB options that would be available to them at 8. So based on that, it looks like Darnold was the guy they wanted all along.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
If they can manage to move teddy, what would the cost be? If they can recoup the 6th from this year or the 4th from next year it makes the Darnold trade look better. That doesn’t seem out of the question to me.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Compared to Carson Wentz? Who had good trade value from Indy's perspective?
Darnold is no Wentz and I am not making any such claim, but trade value is subjective on what they see the players "capable of achieving" and not always "what have you done lately".
I think the deal is a good cost/risk value. Darnald missed on a significant portion of development due to the whole NYJ dysfunction, HC/OC issues and illness/injury. Give him a teacher/QB/OC Coach to develop him in Joe Brady and let's see what he can do. He may not be the elite QB they are looking for, but he has the potential to be better than Teddy.
By the eye test, Teddy had a lot more good plays at QB than Darnold last year. He had two 1,000 WRs. He showed moxie as a runner. His running game wasn't good, the top 2 RBs averaged 3.8 and 3.9 ypc, just a little better than the Jets top 2 RBs who averaged 3.5 and 3.6. His QBR was 17th of 33, just below Ryan and Stafford, and just ahead of Rivers and Cousins. Guess who was 33rd? They say he couldn't make the big play when the game was in the line. Good luck in expecting Darnold to have game winning drives. Maybe Joe Brady is overrated as an offensive genius - It's easy to look good when your QB is Brees or Burrow. Just ask Adam Gase.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Is Carolina letting Darnold's contract run out after 2021 or are they looking to extend him? I'm not sure if the ability to exercise the 5th year option transfers with the contract.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'd say Darnold has more upside than Bridgewater based on skill-sets. It then becomes a question of whether he reaches that upside. Right now Bridgewater is the better QB by any objective statistical measure - but I admit Matt Rhule and Joe Brady have a better subjective eye than I do, so maybe they see a way to turn Sam around and help him reach that upside.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I guess they had to do that after the trade and makes sense in that context. It has potential to really screw them over next year when they are already short a second and fourth rounder though. On the flip side if he does work out after a fresh, $19MM is a fairly reasonable contract.
pantherclub
Footballguy
I think its more of a confidence booster than anything. Basically saying "hey man you are our guy for 2 seasons, no pressure on year 1" That kind of thing. Plus like you said 18 million will be nothing in 2022 when the cap skyrockets. No brainer move IMO
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I think you misunderstood my post. It was that most people know that he was terrible last year. I was agreeing with you.
rockaction
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
From what I have seen, 2022 is not supposed to have much of a cap jump. Projected to be like $192.5M in 2022 and $202.5M in 2023. Basically, an increase of $10M a year (the way it's usually been pre-COVID). The benefit of the new TV deal will happen downstream and not right away. I don't think there will be a year where the cap goes up a huge amount like it did that one season in the NBA when it was like the wild, wild west in free agency. So sure, 5 years from now the cap might be $50M more than it is now, but I don't think it will jump up by $50M in a single season any time soon (if ever). They set up the contract that way so players should be able to make more money across the life of the contract and not all at once (increasing the cap each year allows teams to spend more each year and attract free agents). Obviously they have announced what the plan is for the cap, but I would be surprised if suddenly there was a mountain of money available all at once.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
With the guys around him, I can see him having a Baker Mayfield/Philip Rivers-esque season of 3500/25/10 or so.
Now that's not setting your fantasy league on fire, of course. But it is a little usable.
Now that's not setting your fantasy league on fire, of course. But it is a little usable.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Bridgewater had 3733/15/11 in 15 games last year. However, Bridgewater added 279/5 rushing. So he accounted for a total of 4000+/20 combined in 15 games. (Philip Walker had 258/1/2 in the game Bridgewater missed for combined passing totals of 3991/16/13.)
Carolina is down Curtis Samuel this year, so that won't help any. CMC would probably help with his receiving numbers added back in. Hard to tell, as the receiving production might just be distributed differently with him coming back.
In Darnold's best season, combining rushing and passing numbers, the most he produced was 3086/21 (in 13 games). Bottom line, Darnold might be able to be the 2022 version of Teddy Bridgewater (who ranked as fantasy QB19 in 2020) or a slightly better version of Kyle Allen (who ranked as QB27 in 2019). If I had to project Darnold, I would slot him as a mediocre QB2 option in a 12 team league.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
That being said, Darnold could still be a guy to have around for those that buy into the QBBC concept. You can still win in fantasy having 3 average fantasy QBs while playing the one with the best matchup each week. I have won many a league that way. Usually one of those guys will do better than expected, so you end up getting decent production overall from the QB position with very little investment into the position. Clearly there's more work involved than just drafting Mahomes or Rodgers, but you can load up and have great depth at other positions in the draft and have a deep roster that way.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Without the cannon or the horrible attitude and lack of preparation. But other than that, totally Cutler.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
LBH
Footballguy
I’m more optimistic than other Jets fans in here regarding his prospects . I think he’s going to be pretty good for Carolina. A 23 year old kid got overwhelmed by bad coaching and a terrible OL. PFF ranked the Jets OL as the 4th worst last year, and I think that was an improvement on 2019. His WR1 was Crowder. His starting RB was 37 year old Frank Gore. He will still throw interceptions but he flashes some really nice talent here and there, and now he has the right coaches and a talented group of skill players to throw to. He already has pretty good chemistry with Robbie Anderson. I think his range of outcomes is as wide as any non rookie QB in the league. He was a class act in NY. Wishing him success
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Just because an opinion wasn’t what YOU wanted to hear, doesn’t mean it’s not an accurate or fair opinion. In fact I think people that actually watched him play every week are more qualified than people that just state obvious starting points that everyone knows: “duhh, Adam Gase sucks....”
ETA: stats and analytics are objective measures by the way. You know what else is subjective if I was the say a broken down car will automatically be better if you put in on a racetrack.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
We shall see. Like I said, if the problem in NY was predominantly Darnold, then whoever is drafted at 2 should immediately come in and start making waves, winning some games here and there and putting up some solid numbers. And if Darnold stinks as much as you guys say, he should likely be benched by Week 7 or 8 in Carolina. Time will tell.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
See you love to twist things. No Jets fan has said the problem was “predominantly Darnold”, you already tried to make that lame joke a page or two back.
Every Jets fan will fully 100% support the premise that Darnold was not put in a great situation to succeed. Gase is a terrible HC, the Jets o-line was very bad and their skill position players were below average. All of those things can be true while it’s also true that Darnold showed the inability to even slightly rise above it.
Everyone has also said he’s going to a better situation in Carolina, which will obviously help, but it doesn’t mean he will be successful necessarily. He’ll need to capitalize on it.
Lets flip this around. Instead of being smug and dismissing Jets’ fans opinions as just spurned lovers, you tell me in an objective manner why Sam Darnold is good. You tell me what stats, what analytical measures or otherwise tells you that Darnold was only bad because he was on the Jets. You can throw in some subjective measures as well. Why do you think HE is much better than he looked or than his statistics tell you - without bringing up how bad his support was.
And I believe he will. Ideally, this works out for both teams. That’s a possibility as well that I don’t think many people are considering. It’ll be...interesting. If Darnold does indeed blow in Charlotte, no one will have to @me. I’ve been wrong before and I’ll be wrong again. I’ll take my crow in stride.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I already provided my opinion on Darnold (not sure he is much of an upgrade over Bridgewater). However, of all the college QBs that came out from 2014-2021, NFL.com's Lance Zierlein had Darnold the second highest rated QB (7.1) behind only Trevor Lawrence (7.4).
Granted, a lot has happened since Darnold first suited up for the Jets and maybe he was not as good as first projected, but he's played 3 seasons already in the league and is 6 months younger than Joe Burrow.
Burrrow's PFF grade last year was 75.1. Andy Dalton's in 2019 was 66.5. Darnold's grade last year was 58.4. Bridgewater's was 66.0. Connecting a lot of theoretical dots, could Darnold be an improvement in CAR over Bridgewater like Burrow was over Dalton (Bridgwater and Dalton graded out about the same)? I suppose that is possible. But who knows how likely an expectation that is.
I posted earlier in one of these QB threads that there is probably less of a hit rate on recycled Top 10 QB picks on new teams than there is for the hit rate of Top 10 QB picks on their original team. In Darnold's case, the bar on his performance and productivity for the Jets was so low that he could improve some in CAR and still be below average.
That being said, it's an interesting discussion to have analyzing all the QBs that moved around this off season in teams of which teams got the best value between ability, draft picks given up, cap hits, salary they have to pay out, etc.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yes, there is surely a possibility that Darnold turns it around with better coaching and better surrounding talent - in fact it would be very tough for his statistics not to look better.
I said earlier that Rhule and Brady clearly would have a better subjective opinion of Darnold than me, and they may see something in him that they can work with - although desperation can work against one’s decision making as well.
I guess what I take offense to is that no one wants to pin ANY blame on Darnold for his lack of success and just wants to repeat these tried excuses (which do of course have some validity).
Personally I think “adequate” is the best case scenario for Darnold at this point - but I’ve been wrong plenty of times either.
I did notice you avoided the question about what he does well though.
Well, you said "without bringing up how bad his support was." I'm assuming that means coaching staff and his offensive counterparts, correct? I already made it clear in this thread once that the main reason I believe Darnold succeeds in Carolina is because of the massive upgrades he's going to have across the board. This was right after you said Wilson would have a better year than him this year. I never said the guy was Patrick Mahomes. I just don't believe he's a bottom 5 starter in this league that this thread would lead you to believe. I think he can make about any throw in the book when he's not on his back or running for his life. I like his athleticism and the fact that he's not a statue in the pocket. He's still so young-dude was the youngest QB to start a game since 1970, so theoretically he still has a lot of room to grow. He's had stretches where he looks like a more than capable QB, even on the putrid Jets. The final 8 games of 2019, for example. 1,947 yards, 13 tds to 4 picks. Won 6 out of 8. He does have to do a much better job of recognizing pressure, that's for sure. And just better decision making overall. Again, things I believe he'll struggle less with on a better team.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Right. Doesn’t “roll the dice” = I’m saying/doing this? When I’m playing Texas Hold Em’ and I’m debating on whether or not to call a $1500 all-in bet on the river, I might say I’m going to roll the dice and make the call, even though I’m not sure of the outcome. Or perhaps I’m misunderstanding.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yes - I'm saying if I had to make that choice I'd take my chances with Wilson having the better season in 2021 but "rolling the dice" does not imply the confidence you were assigning it.
I am confident that Wilson/Fields will have a better 2021 than any season Sam had with the Jets though - and to be honest I'm not even sure if Wilson or Fields will excel in the NFL.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I just want you to admit that you WANT him to have a bad career with the Panthers. Similar to how most Georgia fans WANTED Fields to have a bad career at Ohio State. It's OK to admit that and it lets other readers of this thread understand your POV.
Witz
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well the Jets have the Panthers second round pick next season so I suppose it would be better if Sam fails there and the Jets get a high second in 2022. I'm not delusional enough to think my words in this thread will have any affect on whether Darnold fails at his next stop though - so I don't really get your point at all.
However, I think what's caused me to keep responding here is the silly notion that my opinion (and other Jets' fans) gets dismissed as "sour grapes" by Carolina fans or Darnold fantasy owners, as if we all have blinders on a don't want to believe the Jets have been mismanaged over the last few seasons and that we're pretending it's all Sam's fault and once he's gone all of our problems will be solved!
Anyway, I've had my say here. I'm not rooting against Darnold. He's a good kid. He was not done any favors during his time here and he was a class act and a hard worker the entire 3 seasons he was a Jet. Obviously I would have loved for him to have shown signs of being a franchise QB, but unfortunately he regressed. I'll wait and see what happens and stop commenting here.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, that's what I was going off of. Not that Darnold would have a worse year this year than Wilson. That would be a stupid bet. JoeJoe88 re-wrote the bet already. I didn't bother with it when he did that (and he can quote his response to me saying it's a stupid bet all he wants, it doesn't change what he bet on), because it was dumb to begin with. He bet Wilson would have a worse year this year than any Darnold had had with the Jets. Not what he'd do in Carolina. But JoeJoe88 knows that, and his bet was stupid. And is stupid. And so is this discussion.
Darnold was all kinds of putrid and everybody knows it. That he didn't have talent or coaching around him like other players have had is true. That he stunk is also, by any measure, objectively true. He was awful. His 4.5 or so ANY/A this year is one of the worst in recent memory for a starter.
And ConstruxBoy isn't worth the time about this. His rationality has been shot. I don't know what these guys have invested in Darnold, but time watching him play isn't one of them.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Saw this Tweet today just now. Sam was terrible this year, and everybody knows it.
PFF Fantasy Football
@PFF_Fantasy
·57m
Lowest passer rating from a clean pocket in 2020
Carson Wentz - 82.5
Dwayne Haskins - 82.2
Sam Darnold - 81.7
PFF Fantasy Football
@PFF_Fantasy
·57m
Lowest passer rating from a clean pocket in 2020
Carson Wentz - 82.5
Dwayne Haskins - 82.2
Sam Darnold - 81.7
sheerterror
Footballguy
Now we can seamlessly blame that on the lack of WR talent, or Gase's playcalling, or Sam's mono, or.......
MAC_32
Footballguy
He's the same player now that he was at SC. He received zero development. That does not mean that he will develop, but in this particular instance I don't think what he did while on that disaster of a team matters. He came into the league in need of coaching in order to overcome his flaws and he quite simply has not gotten any.rockaction said:
I’m not sure what you’re talking about with me “re-writing a bet.” You seem to get confused a lot on these forums. I’d suggest you go back and read the sequence of posts beginning with me saying “I’d take that bet.” Everything was quoted clearly as to what we were talking about. You were pounding your chest pretty adamantly about it a few pages ago, I don’t know why you’re trying to hedge yourself now with pretending you were referring to Wilson having a better rookie season than any that Darnold ever had. But I agree with you on one thing: this is stupid. I’m out. Good luck in the draft.rockaction said:
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