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Sam Darnold - Meow, he's a Panther.


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13 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Tannehill was much better under Gase than Darnold was.

Yup, and Tanny was not good, it's just that Darnold was that bad. Have a hard time imagining Darnold being a viable starter. I'll root for him but feel like the odds are 5-10% at best.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Tannehill was much better under Gase than Darnold was.

He was, but he was also entering season #5 as a starter aged 28 when Gase was hired as opposed to Sam Darnold, who was 22.

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6 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Alex Smith and Carson Palmer were both very good on the teams that drafted them taking their teams to the playoffs multiple times (Smith took a while to develop). Smith was traded away because the Niners became enamored with Kaepernik and Palmer forced his was out of Cincinnati by retiring until they traded him. They shouldn't even really count.

The only subset that should be looked at is highly drafted QBs that failed with their first team before moving on - which doesn't look favorable for Darnold, but obviously doesn't mean he can't find success at the next stop.

I just covered anyone that fit the profile for whatever reason (drafted first round, ended up playing elsewhere). I agree that not every player had similar circumstances to Darnold. The point was the the data set didn't really showcase many hits (even fewer if you rule out the guys you mentioned).

That being said, none of those QBs were Darnold and none of the destinations were the 2021 Panthers. I would be the first to admit that prior results don't impact current outcomes. But as you mentioned, many other guys that switched teams didn't set the world on fire. That doesn't mean Darnold can't break that trend, and I am sure we could do more research to show that is chances of success may be greater than the list of other players. 

Another conceptual question at this point is this . . . what would a successful season be for Darnold? Better than he did as a Jet? Better than Bridgewater did for the Panthers? A season similar to some of the guys in or around his draft class that were drafted highly (Mayfield, Allen, Jackson, Watson, Mahomes)? A winning record or playoff berth?

He could be better than he was on the Jets and better than Bridgewater was last year . . . but that isn't exactly a high bar to clear. Just trying to get a better sense of what people think a good season for him translates to in terms of numbers, wins, etc.

Edited by Anarchy99
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16 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I just covered anyone that fit the profile for whatever reason (drafted first round, ended up playing elsewhere). I agree that not every player had similar circumstances to Darnold. The point was the the data set didn't really showcase many hits (even fewer if you rule out the guys you mentioned).

That being said, none of those QBs were Darnold and none of the destinations were the 2021 Panthers. I would be the first to admit that prior results don't impact current outcomes. But as you mentioned, many other guys that switched teams didn't set the world on fire. That doesn't mean Darnold can't break that trend, and I am sure we could do more research to show that is chances of success may be greater than the list of other players. 

Another conceptual question at this point is this . . . what would a successful season be for Darnold? Better than he did as a Jet? Better than Bridgewater did for the Panthers? A season similar to some of the guys in or around his draft class that were drafted highly (Mayfield, Allen, Jackson, Watson, Mahomes)? A winning record or playoff berth?

He could be better than he was on the Jets and better than Bridgewater was last year . . . but that isn't exactly a high bar to clear. Just trying to get a better sense of what people think a good season for him translates to in terms of numbers, wins, etc.

20-0?

 

:unsure:

 

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16 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

 

Another conceptual question at this point is this . . . what would a successful season be for Darnold? Better than he did as a Jet? Better than Bridgewater did for the Panthers? A season similar to some of the guys in or around his draft class that were drafted highly (Mayfield, Allen, Jackson, Watson, Mahomes)? A winning record or playoff berth?

Improved Panther offensive production and making the playoffs is a win for Carolina in the trade.

Much better completion percentage, more TDS and less ints for Darnold to bolster his future contract potential.

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17 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Tannehill was much better under Gase than Darnold was.

he definitely was - but I would still have characterized him as a bottom 10 starter under Gase....nitpicking at this point but anyway - Tanny went to a team with better weapons/coaching and he improved to a solid QB....certainly not elite....I think thats the best Sam/Car can hope for....

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2 minutes ago, rzrback77 said:

Improved Panther offensive production and making the playoffs is a win for Carolina in the trade.

Much better completion percentage, more TDS and less ints for Darnold to bolster his future contract potential.

As with most teams, they usually win more when they perform better defensively. I have been going back and forth with people about the Falcons lately, as the debate has been if they should draft a QB and move on from Ryan. I pointed out that the ATL defense has been poor, their offense has been decent to good (and one year almost record breaking).

In your scenario with Darnold, once again the Panthers will go as far as their defense can take them. Here's the recap from the past 5 years.

2020: 5-11, 350 PF, 402 PA, -52 differential
2019: 5-11, 340 PF, 470 PA, -130 differential
2018: 7-9, 376 PF, 382 PA, -6 differential
2017: 11-5, 363 PF, 327 PA, +36 differential
2016: 6-10, 369 PF, 402 PA, -33 differential

In general, CAR played better last year than in 2019 but did not improve in the win column. They lost 8 one score games. If you buy into things even out over time or those games typically can go either way, then they easily could have had 3-4 more wins last year. So looking just at the numbers, they were close to being a .500 team.

Can Darnold help them close out games? At this point who knows, but his record in one score games with the Jets was 9-12.

IMO, part of the issue for a lot of teams is they make so many changes in a brief timeframe that it is very difficult for anything to take root and develop. For example, Carolina in just a few years . . .

Coaches: Ron Rivera . . . Perry Fewell . . . Matt Rhule
Offensive Coordinators: Mike Shula . . . Norv Turner . . . Scott Turner . . . Joe Brady
Quarterbacks: Cam Newton . . . Kyle Allen . . . Teddy Bridgewater . . . Sam Darnold

Based off of last year, this is a make or break year for Rhule and Brady (another losing season and they most likely will be ousted) and for Darnold (if he shows no improvement it's unlikely any other team would give him a chance to start and he would be cast aside as a backup only moving forward).

So that being said, unless the defense improves, it's unlikely the team will have a better record. In terms of yardage, from 2020 to 2016 the Panthers ranked 21, 19, 10, 19, 19. So even with a fair amount of weapons, they really have been great at racking up yards. In terms of scoring, they ranked 24, 20, 14, 12, 15 (but there can be huge differences in team scoring rankings with just a swing of 1 or 2 points a game).

As I alluded to earlier, Darnold put up a 59.5% completion rate with 213 passing yards, 1.18 TD, and 1.03 INT per game over his career. Bridgewater posted 69.1%, 249 passing yards, 1 TD, and 0.73 INT per game last year. So an improvement for Darnold would be to get to where Bridgewater was last year . . . which no one was happy with and they were quick to move on from him. So Darnold would have to do significantly better than that (or the team would have to win way more) for them to be happy with Darnold.

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2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Based off of last year, this is a make or break year for Rhule and Brady (another losing season and they most likely will be ousted) and for Darnold (if he shows no improvement it's unlikely any other team would give him a chance to start and he would be cast aside as a backup only moving forward).

The Panthers had an ownership change in 2018. Specifics escape me, but the relationship deteriorated between the new guy (Tepper) and Rivera then later Hurney. Reasonable to assume when Rhule was given a 7 year deal and a multi year rebuild was insinuated that Hurney's days were numbered. 

Something I read recently (paraphrasing) - if they made the trade because Rhule and Brady want to work with Darnold and they think Gase is a clown then I am guardedly optimistic in this working. But if they made the trade because Tepper demanded they find someone other than Bridgewater and the coaches don’t like their draft options then so they were kinda forced into settling for Darnold then that's a major problem. And since we know so little about Tepper both of this scenarios are plausible.

Your post reminded of that because there's no logical reason either Rhule (7 year contract/multi year rebuild) or Brady are on the hot seat, but is Tepper logical. The answer to that question is likely the path this team takes - short and long term.

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3 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

The Panthers had an ownership change in 2018. Specifics escape me, but the relationship deteriorated between the new guy (Tepper) and Rivera then later Hurney. Reasonable to assume when Rhule was given a 7 year deal and a multi year rebuild was insinuated that Hurney's days were numbered. 

Something I read recently (paraphrasing) - if they made the trade because Rhule and Brady want to work with Darnold and they think Gase is a clown then I am guardedly optimistic in this working. But if they made the trade because Tepper demanded they find someone other than Bridgewater and the coaches don’t like their draft options then so they were kinda forced into settling for Darnold then that's a major problem. And since we know so little about Tepper both of this scenarios are plausible.

Your post reminded of that because there's no logical reason either Rhule (7 year contract/multi year rebuild) or Brady are on the hot seat, but is Tepper logical. The answer to that question is likely the path this team takes - short and long term.

The whole situation in Carolina strikes me as odd. I am not that familiar in timelines and changes in ownership and the front office, so I may be confusing some things. I know QB evaluation is an inexact science, but here were the PFF grades the Panthers have gotten over the past few seasons:

2020: Bridgewater 66.0 (was 73.0 the prior year in NO)
2019 : Allen 49.7
2018: Newton 70.9
2017: Newton 66.5
2016: Newton 68.5

It seems like they were eager to move on from Newton. He was oft-injured, mediocre, and not worth the money so that made sense. (Why NE wanted to hitch a ride with him is a whole other story.) It was pretty clear Allen was not going to be the solution. They had the 7th pick in the draft last year, they could have been in position (or gotten in position) to snag a QB. But they had signed Bridgewater to a 3 year deal before the draft (3 years, $63 million with $33 million guaranteed).

As things turned out, 3 QB got drafted before their pick. They only needed to move up a couple spots to draft someone . . . or move back to draft Jordan Love if they liked him.

Anyway, they gave Rhule 7 years for $60-70 million (which seems crazy to me for a coach that had one notable season as a college coach). If he didn't want Bridgewater, why did they sign him? Was he forced to sign him essentially even though he didn't want to? Which begs the question, did they dump Darnold on him too? Are they not allowing him to draft a QB? The whole things seems weird.

Even though Rhule has a long-term contract, I still thing coaches in the NFL that post multiple losing seasons are generally on the hot seat. He may have a longer leash than other coaches due to his contract, but IMO if they are still only a 5 or 6 win team after say 3 seasons I definitely think his job would be in jeopardy.

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Ex-Jets C Ryan Kalil believes new Panthers QB Sam Darnold did not have enough freedom playing under ex-Jets coach Adam Gase. 

Kalil, who is now retired, was one of Darnold's centers in 2019. “It was a system that didn’t allow a lot of individual freedom. It was very, ‘You do it this way and that’s it,’” Kalil said. “A lot of the scheme was pre-determined (plays) based on what they thought they were seeing from the sideline. It didn’t give Sam a lot of room to grow, in my opinion, to make decisions on the fly. ... It wasn’t a system that allowed him to evolve and make decisions on his own. ... And I think that’s why ultimately the Jets made some (coaching) changes, too.” It's a charitable reading of Darnold's struggles in New York, as Gase was not the coach for Darnold's rough rookie year in 2018. Darnold showed modest improvement under Gase in 2019 before going off the rails in 2020. Something that is not up for debate is that Panthers OC Joe Brady will be by far the best coach to ever call plays for Darnold. The quarterback's supporting cast is also better than any he had in the Big Apple. 2021 is now or never for the former No. 3 overall pick. 

RELATED: 

New York Jets

SOURCE: The Athletic 

Apr 15, 2021, 5:59 PM ET

 

 

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14 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

They had concerns about Wilson's shoulder and the alternative was DARNOLD and not Fields?!??? What the... 

Joe Douglas seems iffy at best. 

That’s a fake story. It has been debunked. 
 

I mean who would be dumber Douglas for turning it down or Lynch for making that offer?

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

Ahem “Mac Jones is going #3” was the biggest lying season lie ever lied.

 

Suckers

I never believed that one.  I don't even beleive the Jets are taking Wilson lol. 

I mean I do, but only because of the Jets and who the owner is. 

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On 4/17/2021 at 8:35 AM, kittenmittens said:

I never believed that one.  I don't even beleive the Jets are taking Wilson lol. 

I mean I do, but only because of the Jets and who the owner is. 

I believe the Jets will take Wilson, but I never thought for a second the 49'ers would take Jones.  Now watch them take Jones.

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Panthers GM Scott Fitterer said the team will wait until after the draft to make a decision on Sam Darnold's fifth-year option.

The Panthers want to see if a quarterback falls to them at the No. 8 pick before committing to Darnold. That's unlikely to happen and Carolina could use draft capital to build around Darnold, who at 23 is only slightly older than most of this year's top QBs. The Panthers have until May 3 to make a decision. Darnold's $18.9 million 2022 salary will be guaranteed for injury only if the Panthers pick up his option.

SOURCE: NFL Network

Apr 24, 2021, 10:07 AM ET

 

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10 hours ago, Faust said:

Panthers GM Scott Fitterer said the team will wait until after the draft to make a decision on Sam Darnold's fifth-year option.

Oof. That changes things up radically, not only for Sam, but for Carolina's draft possibilities. I thought they'd already picked up the option, but I guess cooler heads prevailed.

Edited by rockaction
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Panthers exercised the fifth-year option on Sam Darnold's contract. 

The Panthers are officially in the Sam Darnold business. Team officials said they would wait until after the first round of the draft to make a call on exercising the QB's fifth-year option -- which means his $18.9 million 2022 salary is guaranteed -- and they did just that after passing on Justin Fields and Mac Jones in favor of CB Jaycee Horn. "We traded for him because we believe in his potential," head coach Matt Rhule said. Darnold, still somehow 23 years old, is Carolina's quarterback of the present and future, for better or worse. Creative and forward-thinking offensive coordinator Joe Brady gives Darnold a far better chance of success than Adam Gase ever did. 

SOURCE: Tom Pelissero on Twitter 

Apr 30, 2021, 8:59 AM ET

 

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  • 2 weeks later...


DO NOT trade Julio Jones; top positional battles; saving Sam Darnold
 

Excerpt:

Quote

PANTHERS: Nature vs. nurture and Sam Darnold

If you ask evaluators what matters most in the development of the quarterback, the conversation routinely leads to a debate over talent versus environment. But it's not necessarily an either/or scenario. Franchise quarterbacks need to possess blue-chip talent -- and they also must be surrounded by premier playmakers, protection and an A-plus play-caller to thrive.

In the case of Sam Darnold, we've seen enough from the 23-year-old to know the talent is there. But when it comes to the three Ps, the young signal-caller has rarely been exposed to even one facet, let alone the trifecta. That shouldn't be the case in Carolina, however, as the franchise seems to understand how important these factors are to the development of young quarterbacks. The Panthers' commitment to providing all three could help Darnold finally realize his potential as a pro.

"We're just trying to build the whole team, and I just believe in Sam, I believe that he deserves the opportunity to go out and play with us," head coach Matt Rhule recently said on the Rich Eisen Show. "Now, we just have to make sure Sam's a great player for us."

The vote of confidence is a bit of a surprise for a quarterback with a 13-25 career record and the worst passer rating in the league since 2018 (78.6). But the belief in the former No. 3 overall pick stems in part from his untapped potential. It's not thatlong ago that NFL scouts and personnel executives were painting Darnold as an elite quarterback prospect. The USC standout was lauded for his gunslinger mentality, clutch playmaking ability and winning pedigree.

Despite an up-and-down three-year stint with the New York Jets, Darnold flashed enough talent to prompt Rhule and the Panthers to not only dump their starter(Teddy Bridgewater), but bypass potential QB1s early on Day 1 of the draft.

"We were sitting there one day on defense, and I can't remember (exactly) what we were watching, we were watching a cut-up, and Sam was playing on the other side of the ball, and a couple times he made some throws, and Phil Snow, our defensive coordinator, was like, 'Man, that kid looks like Matt Stafford.' And so, we put a couple games on -- and this is the defensive staff -- and they were all like, 'You know what, every game we watch, he makes a couple of big-time plays, and there has to be some meat on the bone there,' " Rhule said. "So, kind of went through the process and kept watching him and going back and watching him in college and watching his pro day and then going back and watching his first year in a different offense and the second year and his third year. When the compensation was enough where we didn't have to give up what we thought was too much that [it] would hurt our team and a chance to get him here, we'd watched so much tape on him that we saw enough shining moments."

As a young scout, I was taught by my mentors to grade the flashes, because if a player can do it once, he can do it again in the right situation. The Panthers are banking on an upgraded supporting cast -- a pair of 1,000-yard receivers (Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore) and a member of the exclusive 1,000/1,000 Club (Christian McCaffrey) -- creating easier big-play opportunities for the quarterback. In addition, the Panthers used the draft to add a several more weapons (WR Terrace Marshall, WR Shi Smith, RB Chuba Hubbard and TE Tommy Tremble) and upgrade the offensive line (OT Brady Christensen and OG Deonte Brown).

With offensive coordinator Joe Brady poised to dial up productive play calls, the Panthers believe the fourth-year pro will flourish in his new environment.

"After getting him here, talking to Robby Anderson, who played with him (the receiver was with the Jets in 2018 and '19 before joining the Panthers in 2020), talking to other guys who played with him, there's not many guys who've been his teammates who say anything bad about him," Rhule said. "Like, they all have believed in him and believe that he can be good. Hearing some of his former coaches talk about him, they believe that he can be good and so I've always been kind of a nurture vs. nature guy, I think people have to be in the right situations and, you know, hopefully a change of scenery is what he needs."

Considering how the Panthers have gone all-in on the Sam Darnold experiment, we will find out quickly if the former first-rounder can realize his potential in a new environment.

 

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Will Palaszczuk @WilliePStyle

Day Two for Sam Darnold: very uneven to start, lots of check downs, has found some rapport with Ian Thomas, though Thomas let him down with a drop in the end zone in a clutch situation. Lot of mismatching personnel, so hard to make a fair evaluation. #Panthers

https://twitter.com/williepstyle/status/1405204893309210624?s=21

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3 hours ago, Faust said:

Lot of mismatching personnel, so hard to make a fair evaluation. #Panthers

Ah yes, of course. The personnel excuse already beginning for Sam I am.

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College teams have a stable of QBs with backups capable and a hint of likeliness they might play. NFL teams have an alpha dog and can't succeed that way. Rhule doesn't see it.

I wouldn't take any QB from the Panthers for FF. This is how the Browns and Bengals and so many losing teams do things. Winning teams have an alpha

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On 6/17/2021 at 5:39 AM, ConstruxBoy said:

Rent. Free. 

He only lives in my head when the thread entitled "Sam Darnold" gets bumped. Then when I see the same excuses trotted out, I comment.

Meow, indeed!

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2 hours ago, Bri said:

College teams have a stable of QBs with backups capable and a hint of likeliness they might play. NFL teams have an alpha dog and can't succeed that way. Rhule doesn't see it.

I wouldn't take any QB from the Panthers for FF. This is how the Browns and Bengals and so many losing teams do things. Winning teams have an alpha

What do you mean by this? You don't think Darnold is the clear cut starter in Carolina - the price they paid to acquire him plus the cost of picking up his fifth year option tells me that's their plan. Now, personally I don't think their plan is sound - but as I said before Matt Rhule is more qualified than I to evaluate him.

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Robby Anderson going to be doing a lot of needless sprinting this year. Or getting killed underneath by hospital balls. Sure he's loving this right now. And I know he just came out behind Sam, but what has he got to be thinking behind closed doors.

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3 hours ago, rockaction said:

He only lives in my head when the thread entitled "Sam Darnold" gets bumped. Then when I see the same excuses trotted out, I comment.

Meow, indeed!

LOL, when the title of your team's thread on the board is referencing a player no longer on your team and a head coach who has never been associated with your team, then said player is living rent free in your heads. Sad to see.  

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11 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

LOL, when the title of your team's thread on the board is referencing a player no longer on your team and a head coach who has never been associated with your team, then said player is living rent free in your heads. Sad to see.  

Dude it's a joke based on a statement Matt Rhule made:

Quote

"I don’t want (Darnold) to have great days, to be honest with you, right now,” Rhule said. “Because that means we’re not making things hard enough for him. I want him to have good days of just steady progress, to be good days slowly to great days.”

Get over yourself. Seriously.

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4 hours ago, rockaction said:

He only lives in my head when the thread entitled "Sam Darnold" gets bumped. Then when I see the same excuses trotted out, I comment.

Meow, indeed!

You're going to be eating a lot of crow when Sam throws for 231+ yards more than once this season. You'll see that it was Gase holding him back.

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