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QB Sam Darnold, MIN (1 Viewer)

I'm a USC alum and 49ers fan, so I was hoping the Niners would get Darnold entering the season. But a few games into the season I was questioning that. Darnold had seemingly regressed, and I started realizing how big a role the WRs played in his success. He didn't have JuJu making him look better than he was anymore. After some early season injuries at WR, Vaughns and then Pittman emerged, so when Burnett got healthy they had a strong WR trio and that's when he started doing better in the second half of the season. In the bowl game, there were a number of deep balls that were great catches more than great throws. All season, Darnold has made awful reads, locked in on WRs and crumbled under pressure. Look at him toward the end of the bowl game. Down three scores, he has no urgency, no command of the huddle or game. He needs to get every play called into him. He's incapable of taking less than 25 seconds to snap the ball. I don't understand why he's still thought of as a top-10 pick. I wouldn't take him in the first round. By the time the Niners traded for Garappolo, I was just happy they wouldn't be taking Darnold. He can make some NFL throws but he has the hitch in his delivery and, though he has mobility in the pocket, never uses his legs. I'm not even sure I want him back at USC, and I don't think he should stay. If he's going to go top-10, there's really nowhere to go but down. I don't think he will get the coaching at USC to improve with our poor assistants, and Helton's oline will continue to be soft  from not having full-contact practices. But he needs to go to a team where he can sit and learn for two years. 

 
Didn't see "it" at all with the limited time I spent watching him play. He really needs to stay in school. He's only a RS sophomore.

 
total bust so far.needs to stay in school, he wont be drafted in the top 20 picks if he comes out,he's just not that good right now..he might never be good

 
Tanner9919 said:
total bust so far.needs to stay in school, he wont be drafted in the top 20 picks if he comes out,he's just not that good right now..he might never be good
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Yes he will. It's simply supply & demand. There's no chance in hell he get to pick 21.

The Charges take him at 17 and sit him behind Rivers.

Cards take him at 15.

Redskins take him at 13 if Cousins walks.

Jets, Denver and NYG in top 6 all need a QB.

You are saying not a single GM of those teams would take the chance.  No ####### way.

 
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Chaka said:
I don't know how good he'll be in the NFL but when you have a chance to be a top 5 pick you don't risk your health playing another season for free.
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Take out an insurance policy.

The big contract is the second one. And in a qb's case the ones after too. I think his odds of seeing those pay days are smaller if he declares now. If he's never going to be a franchise guy then sure, by all means cash in now. He's betting on himself becoming one though. 

 
lod001 said:
Yes he will. It's simply supply & demand. There's no chance in hell he get to pick 21.

The Charges take him at 17 and sit him behind Rivers.

Cards take him at 15.

Redskins take him at 13 if Cousins walks.

Jets, Denver and NYG in top 6 all need a QB.

You are saying not a single GM of those teams would take the chance.  No ####### way.
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The browns won't let him go past 4

 
MAC_32 said:
Take out an insurance policy.

The big contract is the second one. And in a qb's case the ones after too. I think his odds of seeing those pay days are smaller if he declares now. If he's never going to be a franchise guy then sure, by all means cash in now. He's betting on himself becoming one though. 
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Financially speaking, and no offense, but that is horrendous advice you'd never take yourself or advocate for anyone you remotely care about.

 
MAC_32 said:
Take out an insurance policy.

The big contract is the second one. And in a qb's case the ones after too. I think his odds of seeing those pay days are smaller if he declares now. If he's never going to be a franchise guy then sure, by all means cash in now. He's betting on himself becoming one though. 
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According to Bleacher Report Myles Garrett got a $20 mil signing bonus. Deshaun Watson will earn a shade under $14 mil. 

Obviously he will talk with the relevant parties and if he is a lock for top 10 it would be foolish to play another year for free.

Actually it might be better on some levels to be a second round pick so he can get out from under the team controlled fifth year option. 

And thosei nsurance policies can also be very difficult to actually collect.

 
menobrown said:
Financially speaking, and no offense, but that is horrendous advice you'd never take yourself or advocate for anyone you remotely care about.
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Sam Bradford immediately comes to mind.

But if his primary concern is to ensure the first pay day then he should probably declare. Always going to be a possibility to pull a Bridgewater, extremely low %, but something abve 0. But if finances are his primary concern then what does that say about his long term prospects at qb? Good process --> results. A money centric mind set is not the best way to start that process. 

When he is on he looks like a franchise guy. When he is off he will blow the game by himself. And his off spells are very frequent. He's probably going to be drafted by a bad team and thrust into action very quickly. Given where he currently is this is a recipe for disaster. If he cleans up what leads to those off spells then he will be better prepared for this situation when he gets to the pros.

There are pros and cons to both decisions, but if his goal is to be a franchise qb then I think that likelihood increases if he stays in school another year. 

 
MAC_32 said:
Sam Bradford immediately comes to mind.

But if his primary concern is to ensure the first pay day then he should probably declare. Always going to be a possibility to pull a Bridgewater, extremely low %, but something abve 0. But if finances are his primary concern then what does that say about his long term prospects at qb? Good process --> results. A money centric mind set is not the best way to start that process. 

When he is on he looks like a franchise guy. When he is off he will blow the game by himself. And his off spells are very frequent. He's probably going to be drafted by a bad team and thrust into action very quickly. Given where he currently is this is a recipe for disaster. If he cleans up what leads to those off spells then he will be better prepared for this situation when he gets to the pros.

There are pros and cons to both decisions, but if his goal is to be a franchise qb then I think that likelihood increases if he stays in school another year. 
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I can't think of many people who would look at a $20-30 mil contract (with $15-$20 signing bonus) and have even one of the first 10 things they say to themselves be "Yeah but my mechanics (process?) would be better if I played another year for free."

I can admit that I wouldn't and I doubt anyone else on this board would either.

 
MAC_32 said:
Sam Bradford immediately comes to mind.

But if his primary concern is to ensure the first pay day then he should probably declare. Always going to be a possibility to pull a Bridgewater, extremely low %, but something abve 0. But if finances are his primary concern then what does that say about his long term prospects at qb? Good process --> results. A money centric mind set is not the best way to start that process. 

When he is on he looks like a franchise guy. When he is off he will blow the game by himself. And his off spells are very frequent. He's probably going to be drafted by a bad team and thrust into action very quickly. Given where he currently is this is a recipe for disaster. If he cleans up what leads to those off spells then he will be better prepared for this situation when he gets to the pros.

There are pros and cons to both decisions, but if his goal is to be a franchise qb then I think that likelihood increases if he stays in school another year. 
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You never get that year back financially and that's the major financial reason anytime you are a top 5-10 pick you got to come out.  That year you never get back is not just the first year rookie wage scale, it's also the year you are farther out from that second contract. If Darnold is good enough to get Carr type money on his second deal then staying in school will likely cost have cost him around $20M give or take on that lost year.

Now I get your point on you believe coming out now, if he's not ready, could impede his progress ruin his development to the point it put his second contract earnings in danger.  It's possible, but we are talking about trying to project where he his career is at 5-6 years from now. I don't think that outweights the known factor that you never get that year back you lost. Then add into the equation things insurance does not cover, such as what if he just sucks or regresses and falls further in the draft next year then his year. I think that has to be as great a risk to him as the unknown of what coming out this year does to his contract negotiation leverage in 5 years. Those are unknowns, what is not an unknown is he's be leaving money on the table, a lost year is a lost year. This is why I say from a strictly financial angle I think the only good advice anyone who has feedback suggesting they are a 5-10 pick can get is to turn pro.

There however might be reasons other then money he might decide he'd like to spend another season as in college, but if it's about money you got to go if you think you will be picked that high, which I do.

 
Chaka said:
I can't think of many people who would look at a $20-30 mil contract (with $15-$20 signing bonus) and have even one of the first 10 things they say to themselves be "Yeah but my mechanics (process?) would be better if I played another year for free."

I can admit that I wouldn't and I doubt anyone else on this board would either.
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I'll readily admit I think I am wired differently than most. I also think great quarterbacks are too. 

 
menobrown said:
You never get that year back financially and that's the major financial reason anytime you are a top 5-10 pick you got to come out.  That year you never get back is not just the first year rookie wage scale, it's also the year you are farther out from that second contract. If Darnold is good enough to get Carr type money on his second deal then staying in school will likely cost have cost him around $20M give or take on that lost year.

Now I get your point on you believe coming out now, if he's not ready, could impede his progress ruin his development to the point it put his second contract earnings in danger.  It's possible, but we are talking about trying to project where he his career is at 5-6 years from now. I don't think that outweights the known factor that you never get that year back you lost. Then add into the equation things insurance does not cover, such as what if he just sucks or regresses and falls further in the draft next year then his year. I think that has to be as great a risk to him as the unknown of what coming out this year does to his contract negotiation leverage in 5 years. Those are unknowns, what is not an unknown is he's be leaving money on the table, a lost year is a lost year. This is why I say from a strictly financial angle I think the only good advice anyone who has feedback suggesting they are a 5-10 pick can get is to turn pro.

There however might be reasons other then money he might decide he'd like to spend another season as in college, but if it's about money you got to go if you think you will be picked that high, which I do.
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If he doesn't think he's good enough and will be susceptible to regression then yeah he probably does need to strike while the iron is hot. Nobody here can/should pretend to know what he's thinking. Watching him play I can't imagine that's the case though. He looks like a franchise guy for long periods of time, but it's going to take time to undo his bad habits without impacting other areas of his game. 

 
MAC_32 said:
I'll readily admit I think I am wired differently than most. I also think great quarterbacks are too. 
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No doubt, we're all wired differently than most.

How far removed are you from being 21, generally speaking, a few years? A few decades? Somewhere in between?

 
MAC_32 said:
If he doesn't think he's good enough and will be susceptible to regression then yeah he probably does need to strike while the iron is hot. Nobody here can/should pretend to know what he's thinking. Watching him play I can't imagine that's the case though. He looks like a franchise guy for long periods of time, but it's going to take time to undo his bad habits without impacting other areas of his game. 
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That's another reason he needs to head for the NFL, better chance at better coaching against better competition.

 
Unless he is told that he may/will drop out of the first round*, there is almost zero value in staying.

*And even then as a second rounder whatever team that drafts him won't have a fifth year round option so he'll get his second contract sooner.

 
Chaka said:
That's another reason he needs to head for the NFL, better chance at better coaching against better competition.
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Not necessarily. If he's going top 5/10 then he's probably going to a poorly coached team. One that needs to win or gets fired. Their reality doesn't allow them to be patient with and develop a top 5/10 pick.

 
MAC_32 said:
Not necessarily. If he's going top 5/10 then he's probably going to a poorly coached team. One that needs to win or gets fired. Their reality doesn't allow them to be patient with and develop a top 5/10 pick.
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Mmmmm...I can see that argument and I agree it is a benefit to go to a team that is better. Big Been went 11 and has had a HoF career (arguably) but that didn't preclude Eli (1) and Rivers (4) from amazing success.

Different talents of course, point being that I am not certain the data would support a difference. I think it's as much about the franchise as a whole, not how they did last season. Cleveland doesn't appear to be a great landing spot*, despite a ton of picks, but the Giants and Broncos are also in the top 5 and need QBs. Those are two consistently well run franchises, which obviously isn't a guarantee of future returns but it isn't a reason to be overly concerned either.

*Keeping Hue Jackson wasn't inspiring for us magic football types but I do think there is  a base of offensive talent on the Browns that could turn things around in a hurry. 

 
2. Yes, the turnover issue for Darnold reared its ugly head again.

He had played cleaner football down the stretch this season, but some of those old habits came out Friday night. He made a terrible read on a pick that was returned for a TD. Interceptions don't bother me nearly as much as fumbles, and he had two crucial fumbles against Ohio State. QBs are going to throw interceptions, especially if they're being aggressive, but they have to protect the football inside the pocket.

The concerns I have with Darnold are ball security, first and foremost.
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Not sure I understand this. Granted, maybe there is more history with fumbles and Darnold (not sure) but if I am looking at a QB, INT's bother me much more than fumbles with all else being equal. What I mean by all else being equal is- there are INT's and then there are INT's because of the QB. Same with fumbles. But the whole purpose of a QB is to throw the ball. If they are turning it over by throwing INT's then I am more concerned about that than if he gets hit and coughs the ball on the turf. You know... because he isn't suppose to get hit while he is suppose to throw the ball.

 
I hate the fact that I guy I prayed for just one year ago, is now I guy I'm dreading my team takes.

Ugh. 

 
Soulfly3 said:
I hate the fact that I guy I prayed for just one year ago, is now I guy I'm dreading my team takes.

Ugh. 
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Dude, all the first round QB's are a massive improvement over what you have going for you right now. Try to be happy for something.

 
Soulfly3 said:
I hate the fact that I guy I prayed for just one year ago, is now I guy I'm dreading my team takes.

Ugh. 
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I think you'll understand in time in time this is great news.

I would guess the 4 teams happiest with this announcement would be the Browns, Colts, Broncos and Jets.

Browns because it gives them an extra QB to consider at 1 along with Allen and Rosen(Allen is my guess). Put some trust in your new GM, he's good and he just got another option to consider.

When the Giants take a QB at 2 the winner will likely be the Colts or Browns when Denver and Jets try and move up over the other to take the last of the Big 3. The loser in that race to move up will either take Baker or punt on QB.

 
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NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah spoke with an NFL executive who called USC QB Sam Darnold "a guy that you can be comfortable with building a franchise around."

Specifically, the anonymous executive cited Darnold's character and upside as main reasons why a team would invest in Darnold as their top player. A few points always stand out when discussing Darnold. One, he is extremely young, and if he starts in week one he will be among the youngest to do so. Two, he hasn't been a full-time quarterback that long, lining up as a receiver and linebacker as a sophomore in high school. Which leads to three, he can be all over the place with his base and poise. In this same piece, four of five executives polled said they would rather sign Kirk Cousins than draft a quarterback.

Source: Daniel Jeremiah on Twitter 

Feb 8 - 10:32 AM
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Appearing on NFL Network, former first-overall pick David Carr called USC QB Sam Darnold "as good as it gets" in terms of talent.

Carr was commenting on NFL.com Analyst's Bucky Brooks list of the top five quarterbacks in the 2018 class; of which Brooks has Darnold second behind UCLA's Josh Rosen. Carr commented on Darnold's ability on the field and the way he carried himself off the field, and believes he has the potential to be a star. The one concern he had with Darnold was his age, and he believes that the Trojan star needs to be in a system that can "let him learn." Whether or not Cleveland -- who has the first and fourth pick -- would be one of those teams is an interesting question.

Source: NFL.com

Feb 10 - 8:29 PM
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Matt Waldman warns to not allow USC QB Sam Darnold's inconsistent mechanics to overshadow his impressive results.

As Waldman puts it, this is Darnold transcending his technical flaws. I "expect Darnold to have moments in games where his style will help him deliver plays within a rhythm that only a handful can," Waldman writes. The two have different styles in how they move and play the position, but this same sentiment could be said for Patrick Mahomes last draft season. Expecting perfect technique for a player is incorrect process, instead work around and with that style in order to push the offense ahead.

Source: Matt Waldman RSP 

Feb 13 - 11:04 AM
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CFB Film Room notes that Sam Darnold threw zero touchdowns and seven interceptions when under pressure in the pocket.

Darnold (6'4/220) completed 36-of-67 passes while facing pressure in the pocket, and averaged 8.6 yards-per-attempt, and that does not include throw aways. Compare that to Deshaun Watson -- a player that was criticized for turning the football over too much in his final year at Clemson -- who threw for six touchdowns and three picks under the same circumstances. There's no denying Darnold's arm strength, athleticism or upside, but that number sticks out like a sore thumb, and it's one that analytic teams are going to scrutinize until April. Feb 19 - 3:30 PM

Source: CFB Film Room on Twitter
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Optimum Scouting's Eric Galko writes that "mentally, instinctively, character-wise, and projection-wise, [USC QB Sam Darnold is] not that far off from Carson Wentz."

Galko believes that Darnold is "probably a full year away from showing the kind of player he really can be," but loves his upside, ranking him as his No. 1 quarterback in this draft class. Darnold and UCLA's Josh Rosen have emerged as the top two quarterbacks on most positional boards, with the order depending upon your outlet of reading. Rotoworld's Thor Nystrom throws a bit of a wrench in with his own rankings, slotting Rosen at No. 1, but then following up with Lamar Jackson while grading Darnold as his No. 3 signal-caller. 

Feb 20 - 2:37 PM

Source: Optimum Scouting
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USC QB Same Darnold possesses "off-the-charts intangibles," per conversations the MMQB's Albert Breer had with NFL personnel members.

Breer projects Darnold to be the Browns selection at No. 1, and teams' potential comfort with him due to those intangibles seems to be a major factor why. The quarterback hierarchy becomes more clear following the NFL Combine, with many trade talks happening over the course of that week. But as of now, Darnold appears the favorite for the No. 1 spot, as that same "intangibles" line has not been repeated for Josh Rosen or Baker Mayfield.

Source: SI.com 

Feb 21 - 9:05 AM
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ESPN's Adam Schefter reports USC QB Sam Darnold will not throwing during the NFL Scouting Combine.

Darnold "will focus on athletic testing and interviews instead," per Schefter. As of now the other top names, like Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are expected to throw. In fact, Mayfield and Allen completed a full week of Senior Bowl practice already. On the scale of significance, pro day workouts (Danrold's is on March 21) seem to be more important than throwing in Indianapolis, but it is always nice to see every quarterback throw on the same field. Quarterbacks work out on Saturday.

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter 

Feb 27 - 10:13 AM
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Liked the kid after watching highlights but don't like the fact that he won't be throwing when pretty much every other top QB prospect will be. 

 
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