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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Sony Michel, Patriots


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If  NE's RB usage patterns give you pause something to consider, not a decision maker as there is a lot to consider here but a reason why I think this is a good landing spot for Michel and not worried

Just heard a 15 minute discussion about this exact issue on the radio. Last year, when Michel was in the game he got the ball 85% of the time. Because of that, teams have been playing 8 in the box. As

Let’s not exaggerate. It’s only been 22. 

I am completely biased, as I own a lot of Michel. But...

I still think we're sitting on a goldmine in Michel. Yes, RBs is New England have been a nightmare for years. But I'm trying to think like Bill Belichick here. His only other choice as a first round RB was Lawrence Maroney. Maroney was ok in year one, but he ended up a total bust. We know that Belichick is an independent thinker. We know that historically Belichick has avoided using high picks on RB mostly. So then why would he use another first round pick on Michel? I think Michel is the best all around RB the Patriots have had in years. Michel can do what Dion Lewis did, but he's a lot bigger. 

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2 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

I am completely biased, as I own a lot of Michel. But...

I still think we're sitting on a goldmine in Michel. Yes, RBs is New England have been a nightmare for years. But I'm trying to think like Bill Belichick here. His only other choice as a first round RB was Lawrence Maroney. Maroney was ok in year one, but he ended up a total bust. We know that Belichick is an independent thinker. We know that historically Belichick has avoided using high picks on RB mostly. So then why would he use another first round pick on Michel? I think Michel is the best all around RB the Patriots have had in years. Michel can do what Dion Lewis did, but he's a lot bigger. 

Better than Saquon.  People were just scared off by the knee.

Proof:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzFCNS-V3_Y

Note the hit he puts on some damn fool at the goal liine at 6:33.  Serious man crush.

 

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Fellow Michel owner, but I'm tapping the brakes on the hype until we see him get a meaningful workload and do well with it. White will still be heavily involved and Burkhead is still lingering as a steady presence even if he sits this week with the concussion.

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Sony Michel (knee) said he is preparing as if he will play Week 2 against the Jaguars.

Michel was limited on the injury report all last week before sitting out the season opener, and he was listed as limited again Wednesday. With Jeremy Hill (knee) out for the season and Rex Burkhead's availability in question due to a concussion, the Patriots might have to roll out Michel whether he is ready or not. An uncertain role means he will be tough to trust in fantasy lineups this week, but Michel's long-term upside makes him a great bench stash.

Source: NBC Sports Boston 

Sep 13 - 9:23 AM

 

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1 hour ago, cantstop1999 said:

Dropped is crazy, he was being drafted in the 5th round prior to the injury, I got him in the 8th and was thrilled. Could be amazing, will see.

Depends on the league...we have only 3 bench spots.  He was dropped before week 1.

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7 minutes ago, pmark said:

i'll be surprised if he has a big role this week if he even plays, but the long term outlook is good.  He was looking good in camp before he got hurt.

I would tend to disagree that he looked good in camp. He missed almost all of camp and had fumblitis when he did play . . . across OTA's, mini-camp, and the start of training camp.
When he was on the field and not fumbling, he looked inconsistent. He had one big run or catch and run (like 50 yards), but once he broke the initial play no one really bothered to chase him.
No game action, no real contact up until now, very little knowledge of the play book, and most important if they don't feel he can pick up the blitz he won't be in on passing downs.

Maybe his longer term prognosis might be good, but I think he will be eased in very slowly. BB hasn't played rookie skill position players much over the years . . . RB's included in that.

If Michel seems to "get it," maybe they use him more down the stretch, but I am thinking they will spread usage around to keep people fresh for the post season.

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4 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I would tend to disagree that he looked good in camp. He missed almost all of camp and had fumblitis when he did play . . . across OTA's, mini-camp, and the start of training camp.
When he was on the field and not fumbling, he looked inconsistent. He had one big run or catch and run (like 50 yards), but once he broke the initial play no one really bothered to chase him.
No game action, no real contact up until now, very little knowledge of the play book, and most important if they don't feel he can pick up the blitz he won't be in on passing downs.

Maybe his longer term prognosis might be good, but I think he will be eased in very slowly. BB hasn't played rookie skill position players much over the years . . . RB's included in that.

If Michel seems to "get it," maybe they use him more down the stretch, but I am thinking they will spread usage around to keep people fresh for the post season.

How do you know this? 

BB doesn't seem like a guy who is going to pay RBs top dollar, so I drafted him on one assumption; if they're drafting him in the 1st round, they intend on using him for 5 years, then discarding him (or that would be the hope). I'd think they want to get every cent of value out of the guy until his rookie deal is over.

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11 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

How do you know this? 

BB doesn't seem like a guy who is going to pay RBs top dollar, so I drafted him on one assumption; if they're drafting him in the 1st round, they intend on using him for 5 years, then discarding him (or that would be the hope). I'd think they want to get every cent of value out of the guy until his rookie deal is over.

I would agree that the ultimate plan is for Michel to have a prominent role on offense, but the Super Bowl is goal #1. And if that means Michel plays only a bit part this year until he gets his sea legs, I'm sure the team would be just fine with that.

Edited by zamboni
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15 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

How do you know this? 

BB doesn't seem like a guy who is going to pay RBs top dollar, so I drafted him on one assumption; if they're drafting him in the 1st round, they intend on using him for 5 years, then discarding him (or that would be the hope). I'd think they want to get every cent of value out of the guy until his rookie deal is over.

He's a rookie that has not taken a live snap even in a preseason game before. Sure, running plays aren't that complicated . . . but audibles, passing plays, and in-play adjustments on the fly? I'm not buying that he is stepping in as a seasoned vet that knows everything.

I still think Burkhead leads the team in fantasy scoring (and most likely gets the majority of goal line carries), White isn't going anywhere on passing downs, and Michel won't get much use as a receiver this year.

Add it all up, and IMO he's going to be rotated in on first and second down with little red zone work and not many targets out of the backfield. He didn't have a heavy workload in college, nor was he used all that much as a receiver. So he is similar to Burkhead in that regard. I don't think either guy is a bell cow back.

Maybe that changes in the future, but for now he's a rookie with rookie issues (and a bum knee at the moment). And I'm guessing the first time he fumbles or misses a block and Brady gets driven into the turf that he will be done for that game.

We'll have to wait and see of course. If he picks things up and can stay healthy (and other guys get hurt), he could have a bigger role later in the season.

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1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

He's a rookie that has not taken a live snap even in a preseason game before. Sure, running plays aren't that complicated . . . but audibles, passing plays, and in-play adjustments on the fly? I'm not buying that he is stepping in as a seasoned vet that knows everything.

I still think Burkhead leads the team in fantasy scoring (and most likely gets the majority of goal line carries), White isn't going anywhere on passing downs, and Michel won't get much use as a receiver this year.

Add it all up, and IMO he's going to be rotated in on first and second down with little red zone work and not many targets out of the backfield. He didn't have a heavy workload in college, nor was he used all that much as a receiver. So he is similar to Burkhead in that regard. I don't think either guy is a bell cow back.

Maybe that changes in the future, but for now he's a rookie with rookie issues (and a bum knee at the moment). And I'm guessing the first time he fumbles or misses a block and Brady gets driven into the turf that he will be done for that game.

We'll have to wait and see of course. If he picks things up and can stay healthy (and other guys get hurt), he could have a bigger role later in the season.

Fair enough and an understandable viewpoint. 

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29 minutes ago, pmark said:

you need to find another option.  Michel probably won't have a big role if any this week.

I’m trying to make a trade. It’s pretty much my only option since it’s a late game. If Fournette is  declared out before the 1pm games, I have other options. 

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17 hours ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

Better than Saquon.  People were just scared off by the knee.

Proof:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzFCNS-V3_Y

Note the hit he puts on some damn fool at the goal liine at 6:33.  Serious man crush.

Sucks to be that guy.

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3 hours ago, Elevencents said:

Why do you think that? I see no reason to doubt Burkhead can lead that unit all year. 

was injured a bunch last year and was injured at times during camp this year.  Not sure if he had issues staying healthy when he was with the Bengals or not so this could just be my gut feeling...

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4 minutes ago, pmark said:

was injured a bunch last year and was injured at times during camp this year.  Not sure if he had issues staying healthy when he was with the Bengals or not so this could just be my gut feeling...

Burkhead isn't exactly a pillar of health, but let's look at the medical history of Michel . . .

- An ACL tear in high-school.
- A broken shoulder blade and high ankle sprain one year at Georgia.
- Another ankle injury and a forearm fracture the following year.
- A third ankle sprain and a knee strain in 2017.
- A clean up procedure on his knee this year that kept him out of most of training camp with NE.

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Sony Michel (knee) remained limited at Thursday's practice.

Michel said he's preparing as if he's going to play Sunday at Jacksonville and the Patriots could sure use him with Jeremy Hill (ACL) out for the year and Rex Burkhead working through the concussion protocol. New England's other backfield options are pass-catcher James White and Kenjon Barner, who was just signed a few days ago.

Source: Ben Volin on Twitter 

Sep 13 - 4:34 PM

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

Burkhead isn't exactly a pillar of health, but let's look at the medical history of Michel . . .

- An ACL tear in high-school.
- A broken shoulder blade and high ankle sprain one year at Georgia.
- Another ankle injury and a forearm fracture the following year.
- A third ankle sprain and a knee strain in 2017.
- A clean up procedure on his knee this year that kept him out of most of training camp with NE.

On the pessimistic side, you left out the fact that its commonly believed that the nature of his knee / meniscus issues are such that he will not be able to have a long NFL career.

On the optimistic side, these same kinds of concerns do not keep people from drafting Leonard Fournette.  The situations are not identical, but I'm just sayin.

 

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3 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Both Burkhead and Michel listed as limited in practice and questionable to play on injury report on Sunday. This will require more digging to figure out what that means.

I think it's pretty simple. If both are active burkhead will get the bulk of the carries and the goal line work with michel and white mixed in. If only michel is active he'll get the early down work with white taking passing downs.

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On 9/12/2018 at 10:31 PM, SeniorVBDStudent said:

Better than Saquon.  People were just scared off by the knee.

Proof:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzFCNS-V3_Y

Note the hit he puts on some damn fool at the goal liine at 6:33.  Serious man crush.

 

Been a huge fan of Sonny through college which sucks being a Gators fan but I respect talent when I see it. I live in PSU B1G country so it's pretty frustrating when all I heard about for months was Barkley. I just never thought he was that amazing. He seemed to take a few games off against teams he should've dominated and some of the teams ranked high I didn't like given looking at the backs they faced Barkley was far and away the best back times 10 they faced all year. PSU fans kept giving the USC Rose Bowl game. Yeah other then Bryce Love who the heck did USC face RB wise because it wasn't anyone good. 

Sonny is amazing though. people were scared by the knee. I have him in my keeper league and hoping he shows enough this year I can keep him since we only keep 4 guys. 

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If he plays tomorrow he along with James White will be heavily involved in the game plan.  At least in the first half. Brady’s strength is getting the ball out of his hands very quickly when facing strong defensive fronts like the jags.  

I think Brady will be using hot reads to his RBS and quick slants to the WRs all day.  He will do well against Jax.  And I think michel will be a big part of it. 

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Sony Michel - RB -  Patriots

The Athletic's Jeff Howe reports Sony Michel (questionable, knee) has a chance to play in Sunday's game with Jacksonville.

Michel didn't play through his questionable tag last week. He's been sidelined since an early August knee scope but has made enough progress that he could make his debut Sunday. With Rex Burkhead (concussion) also looking likely to be cleared, Michel's role would be up in the air if he's active. New England's Week 2 backfield is shaping as a situation to avoid.

Source: Jeff Howe on Twitter 

Sep 15 - 5:36 PM

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Sony Michel - RB -  Patriots

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports both Sony Michel (knee) and Rex Burkhead (concussion) are expected to be active against the Jaguars.

This has been the tentative expectation for days. Per Schefter, Burkhead still needs to show well in pre-game warmups. Michel will likely be sliding into a bit role after he missed nearly the entire summer. The Jaguars are a foreboding matchup for his NFL debut. He's a dart throw RB4 with some upside. Banged-up Burkhead is a low-end RB2/FLEX.

Related: Rex Burkhead

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter 

Sep 16 - 11:16 AM

 

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27 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

I might start Michel vs. a shaky Detroit run defense this week.

Lot of mouths to feed now in New England.  If Gordon stays on the beaten and narrow path (actually, more than most of us have to do in our daily lives) that team goes from a problem with weapons to having a glut of them.  

As for the Detroit thing, I'm also tempted. Patriots should also be leading by the third quarter or so, so I think the game script benefits them. And Michel looked good against Jacksonville, IMO.  

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2 minutes ago, ahartig said:

He's in my flex.  I see the Pats getting a big lead early.... and pounding with Michel.

Huh. I was typing as you were writing, too. I agree.  

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22 minutes ago, ahartig said:

He's in my flex.  I see the Pats getting a big lead early.... and pounding with Michel.

he's definitely flex-worthy, Patriots attack the defense's weakness and right now that is the Lions run defense. However, can see them being careful with his carries and giving Rex Burkhead a lot of work.

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

Lot of mouths to feed now in New England.  If Gordon stays on the beaten and narrow path (actually, more than most of us have to do in our daily lives) that team goes from a problem with weapons to having a glut of them.

I don't know if Vegas has placed odds on this, but I'm guessing there's about a 20% chance that Gordon makes a sustained impact in New England.

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Who are you starting over Michel this week? I would love to play him vs. Detroit, and I think this could be his break out game. But I acquired Giovani Bernard and I think Bernard's floor is higher than Michel's this week.

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