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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Sony Michel, Patriots


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If  NE's RB usage patterns give you pause something to consider, not a decision maker as there is a lot to consider here but a reason why I think this is a good landing spot for Michel and not worried

Just heard a 15 minute discussion about this exact issue on the radio. Last year, when Michel was in the game he got the ball 85% of the time. Because of that, teams have been playing 8 in the box. As

Let’s not exaggerate. It’s only been 22. 

13 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

He ended up with 113 YFS. He had 123 last week. I get that people drafted him expecting a TD every week. IMO, he’s a buy low. 

I sure as heck hope someone in my league looks at the stats and not watch him play. He looks so terrible. No burst, no ability to break tackles. When burkhead is back you are looking at 10 to 15 carries not the twenty he's been getting

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Sony Michel rushed 22 times for 86 yards in the Patriots' Week 6 win over the Giants, adding two receptions for 23 additional yards.

In what felt like an intentional provocation of fantasy owners, Michel could only watch as the Pats notched not one, not two, but three rushing touchdowns by other players. Michel was an observer for a pair of Tom Brady quarterback sneaks and a Brandon Bolden one-yard plunge in the second quarter. The closest Michel got to a "goal-line carry" came from the Giants' 19-yard line. Michel was having a decidedly unimpressive night before adding a 26-yard carry on the Pats' final real play. Despite his continued disappointments, Michel will remain a locked-in RB2 for the Pats' latest Triple-A opponent (@NYJ) in Week 7.

 

Edited by The Frankman
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45 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

To be fair, Michel has 10.5 points in PPR scoring. I would kill for that for one of my teams. Not great but not horrible. 

If you're already pining for 10 points out of a RB in PPR on Thursday night then it's time to tear that team down and rebuild it, not scrap for 10 points from Sony.

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His average is respectable, but he looked bad. Did he break a tackle all night? These past few weeks? This year?

It's bad. I'd love to see his YAC in PFF right now. 

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That said, he did get 11.30 standard. That's not too bad for an RB2. I know, like Anarchy says, we were hoping for touchdowns, but we're looking at a guy who needs to win confidence in both his coach and his team.

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7 hours ago, rockaction said:

His average is respectable, but he looked bad. Did he break a tackle all night? These past few weeks? This year?

It's bad. I'd love to see his YAC in PFF right now. 

He had a nice screen pass opportunity with only one defender in the immediate area after the catch... He managed to run right in to that one defender and get tackled. It was almost like he was a magnet.

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2 minutes ago, iamkoza said:

He had a nice screen pass opportunity with only one defender in the immediate area after the catch... He managed to run right in to that one defender and get tackled. It was almost like he was a magnet.

Yeah its like he looks for contact not realizing he cant break tackles.

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Michel is on pace for 280 touches, 1085 YFS, and 8 TD. They are starting to use him as a receiver some. Yes, he doesn’t look great, has ongoing knee issues, and for now appears to rarely get red zone looks. But the numbers are the numbers. And those totals would be higher totals than he had in the regular season last year.  If people got excited over his performance in the post season, than those folks likely overpaid. 

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25 minutes ago, iamkoza said:

He had a nice screen pass opportunity with only one defender in the immediate area after the catch... He managed to run right in to that one defender and get tackled. It was almost like he was a magnet.

100%. I couldn't believe that play. What should've been a 20+ yard play turned into 8. 

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1 hour ago, iamkoza said:

He had a nice screen pass opportunity with only one defender in the immediate area after the catch... He managed to run right in to that one defender and get tackled. It was almost like he was a magnet.

that play irratated me so much i made a GIF of it so all can enjoy him running directly in to ogletree

Sony running in to defender on screen pass GIF

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Anybody looking at average ypc to put a bow on last night is confusing fantasy with reality.  The NFL reality is that he looked bad.  Coaches aren't going to be happy when a guy gets 1 yard on like 10 or so of his carries.  That's not helping the offense or the qb.

He's likely got to do better or lose pt to burkhead or Harris.

I think the two qb sneaks were to send a message to Michel that they are not going to give him the glory running like that.

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1 minute ago, The Dude said:

Anybody looking at average ypc to put a bow on last night is confusing fantasy with reality.  The NFL reality is that he looked bad.  Coaches aren't going to be happy when a guy gets 1 yard on like 10 or so of his carries.  That's not helping the offense or the qb.

He's likely got to do better or lose pt to burkhead or Harris.

I think the two qb sneaks were to send a message to Michel that they are not going to give him the glory running like that.

I mentioned this several times already. IMO, people are confusing fantasy football for NFL football. BB has already come out and said Michel hasn't had been the issue and the lack of blocking has been the issue. He is still getting a ton of carries, is being integrated into the passing game, and generally speaking doesn't cough up the football. He's not great, but he is reliable enough. He helps allow NE to play keep away from the other team, wear down defenders, and close out games. Given that Burkhead has been out and Harris still can't get on the game day roster, I am not so sure Harris will be anything more than a footnote to the season this year. 

As also indicated previously, the threat of Michel running the ball pulls defenders closer to the LOS and they run play action to great success. Michel also had a block that completed flipped over a blitzer. Michel hasn't looked great at times, but he still has been a positive contributor overall. He's been averaging 17-18 touches a game.

Burkhead has rarely been healthy in his time in NE and hasn't really been used more than a change of pace back. Sometimes they have used him as a receiver both in and out of the backfield. But he rarely sees more than a few carries. Bolden is probable more of a threat to get carries than Burkhead, but even that seems unlikely.

The two Brady TD's were probably more to keep TB12's interest and keep him engaged. He hasn't been the best teammate lately and has been vocal about not loving the weapons at his disposal. He also has indicated he isn't all that interested in developing younger receivers and wants more veteran targets to throw to.

I also think across the board on offense they are dealing with a bunch of nagging injuries, which coupled with the guys out of the lineup with longer term injuries is making the offense limp to the finish line some weeks. But the offense has scored 19 TD in 6 games (so not counting TD's on DEF or S/T's). The point being, the offense is scoring points, the defense is getting a lot of turnovers, and there should still be a lot of scoring opportunities available.

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The Brady sneaks were bad enough on there own but throw in the Bolden TD (got 2 shots at it), Van Noy getting in (as opposed to being down at the 2 like originally called), and Sony not breaking that final run for a TD. Would have been nice to just have the Bolden TD and then Sony is over 17 in standard and 19 in ppr. 

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55 minutes ago, Manster said:

Why is Tom Brady continually doing QB sneaks?  Padding his stats?  Seems like a a needless risk to take.  He goes down, the Pats are toast.

You may be right, but the defensive / special teams unit has scored more points than they have allowed on the season. The defense has only allowed three TD so far but D/ST's have scored 5 TD's. That obviously won't continue, but with the way the defense has been playing, they could probably stay afloat without TB depending upon who they had to play.

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43 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

You may be right, but the defensive / special teams unit has scored more points than they have allowed on the season. The defense has only allowed two TD so far but D/ST's have scored 5 TD's. That obviously won't continue, but with the way the defense has been playing, they could probably stay afloat without TB depending upon who they had to play.

The bolded being appropriate.  The Pats have somehow started off this year with one of the flukiest easy 6 game schedules imaginable.

3 of the 6 teams they've played are winless, and another has only 1 win (although they did play them pre Big Ben injury).  They have a 7-22 record overall.  4 of those 7 wins were the Bills who lost their quarterback in the NE game.

 

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@Anarchy99 - thoughts on this news and the impact it could potentially have on Sony Michel moving forward?

Quote

Jim McBridge of the Boston Globe reports the Patriots are expected to place FB Jakob Johnson (shoulder) on injured reserve.

He picked up a shoulder injury Thursday in a win over the Giants. Johnson had been filling in for James Develin (neck) at fullback. With both of their fullbacks injured, Pats could employ more 11 personnel going forward.

SOURCE: Boston Globe

Oct 11, 2019, 12:25 PM ET

 

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2 minutes ago, Faust said:

 

@Anarchy99 - thoughts on this news and the impact it could potentially have on Sony Michel moving forward?

 

It certainly won't help any. Johnson was getting on the job training and trial by fire initiation to the offense. IMO, the talk of NE adding a WR may be a bit more of a media creation than anything else. They would be better served getting a blocking TE, OL help, or a cheap fullback. There hasn't been any update on Develin, so not sure if they are hopeful he might be able to come back from IR this year. It makes more sense to leave Harry on IR if Wynn and Develin are healthy enough to come back and contribute.

I still think at some point BB will just start playing an extra lineman on offense (even if it is someone from the defense) to try to get more blocking. Michel's fantasy value so far has been due to high volume, starting to get some targets receiving, and the offense wearing out defenses by the end of games. That script could stay similar for a few more weeks, but we may see NE have to do more than take the air out of the ball offensively (pun intended) because the defense has been so stout.

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12 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

You may be right, but the defensive / special teams unit has scored more points than they have allowed on the season. The defense has only allowed three TD so far but D/ST's have scored 5 TD's. That obviously won't continue, but with the way the defense has been playing, they could probably stay afloat without TB depending upon who they had to play.

Their defense has been incredible, no matter level of competition......just seems silly to me to have Tom running the ball.  He might break a hip!

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On 9/29/2019 at 1:55 PM, Ray Barboni said:

Yea. That’s a really bad sign for BB’s confidence in Michel.

i can almost feel that he hates him so much. Can’t break a tackle. Fumbled last week.

I’m thinking BB didn’t even want to draft the kid ... Damien Harris might be his guy, but no need to use him yet.

i feel like a jerk for buying into the TD potential/hype on Michel.

 

If Belichick did not want to draft Michel, he would not have been drafted by the Pats.

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

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Sony Michel rushed 19 times for 42 yards and three touchdowns in the Patriots' 33-0, Week 7 win over the Jets Monday night.

Michel was targeted twice in the pass game, dropping the first one that would have maybe went for a touchdown and turning the catch into a loss of eight yards. Michel's 2.2 yards per carry average is hideous, but this has been the story of his season. He came into this one averaging a pitiful 3.5 YPC. His scores came from three, one, and one yards away. But Michel has a desirable role as the Patriots' early-down and goal-line back for an offense that is routinely finding the end zone. Michel has six touchdowns in seven games and will be a TD-dependent RB2 next week against the Browns.

Oct 21, 2019, 11:33 PM ET

 

 

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He looks so horrendous. His only quality appears to be he doesn't fumble often. Frequently brought down by arm tackles, no lateral ability, no burst. Falls down on first contact... Yet the best team in the league is content to give him 20 carries a game

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14 minutes ago, pbandy1 said:

I thought he looked way better last year, what the hell happened? Am I missing something? 

No, he looked way better last year.

They were indeed stacking the box every time he ran tonight. His drop really hurt. That was a walk in touchdown that would keep the defense from peeling back their ears and run blitzing. 

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6 hours ago, pbandy1 said:

I thought he looked way better last year, what the hell happened? Am I missing something? 

NE had no OL injuries last year, a great blocking FB, and two great blocking tight ends in Gronk and Allen. This year, the OL has multiple injuries, they have no healthy FB, they don’t really have a blocking TE (and the ones they have are hurt). It’s not Michel’s fault they can’t block. 

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3 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

NE had no OL injuries last year, a great blocking FB, and two great blocking tight ends in Gronk and Allen. This year, the OL has multiple injuries, they have no healthy FB, they don’t really have a blocking TE (and the ones they have are hurt). It’s not Michel’s fault they can’t block. 

We know all this about the line and the blocking; he looks different. I wonder if you measured his elusiveness rating or yards after contact ratings or other advanced PFF stats how it would compare to last year. I can't imagine it'd be that his steep decline is solely attributable to blocking. By the way, standard scoring, Yahoo league? He's RB14 overall right now. 

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27 minutes ago, rockaction said:

We know all this about the line and the blocking; he looks different. I wonder if you measured his elusiveness rating or yards after contact ratings or other advanced PFF stats how it would compare to last year. I can't imagine it'd be that his steep decline is solely attributable to blocking. By the way, standard scoring, Yahoo league? He's RB14 overall right now. 

He’s had knee issues forever. He doesn’t look good but he’s getting the ball and his fantasy numbers have been ok. NE probably shouldn’t have drafted him, but it is what it is. He’s serviceable but not spectacular. 

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Just now, Anarchy99 said:

He’s had knee issues forever. He doesn’t look good but he’s getting the ball and his fantasy numbers have been ok. NE probably shouldn’t have drafted him, but it is what it is. He’s serviceable but not spectacular. 

I agree with this. 

A related aside: Harris looked like he had burst on his two garbage time carries, but from highlights in the preseason, he doesn't look like a real breakaway threat.

Then again, neither is Sony right now. Think the Pats might settle for 3.5 YPC. 

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47 minutes ago, irish eyes said:

Hate this guy with the heat of a thousand burning suns. I lose by less than a point because he gets 3 garbage TDs. Perfect distances for the 0.5 yards per carry he averages. Have been sitting him in my other league.

Did I play you? lol

I hate him too, he was a throw in to get me a RB in a trade last week.  Trying so hard to trade him for any WR and nobody wants him.

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8 hours ago, aggie_dave said:

Has anyone gotten offers or a feel for his trade value right now? Thinking of using his past 2 weeks to upgrade at WR. 

Been trying the same all morning to some RB needy teams no bites.

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Devil's advocate view via Rotoworld:

Sony Michel might be disappointing fantasy owners with his 3.48 yards per carry on the season, but he continues to be fed the ball week in and week out. He has yet to eclipse 100-yards rushing, a feat that he managed four times in his 13 regular-season games played in his rookie season. He hasn't been flashy, but he's been at least serviceable through bye weeks and mounting injuries. The Patriots have a Week 10 bye, and after that, they face the Eagles, Cowboys, Texans. Not the best matchups, sure, but the real magic happens during your fantasy football playoffs: Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Buffalo. Michel's disappointing season has driven down his cost significantly, but he's a cheap insurance policy that would pay off handsomely through your championship weeks.

Have a team floating Davante Adams as trade bait. Know it is not Assistant Coach's Forum, but does Sony/JuJu get that done?

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Just now, Anarchy99 said:

What gets me is how much people have slammed Michel the past few weeks. But over the last three weeks, he’s ranked 6th in standard scoring and 7th in PPR scoring over that stretch. Would people rather be look great and rank 29th?

That's why I put in my complaint that he was RB14 overall standard. To sort of assuage or explain the dichotomy between wanting fantasy production, which comes from volume, and wanting real production, which in the coaches' minds, allows one to have access to said volume necessary for the fantasy points. It's really about sustainability.

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1 hour ago, Big Blue Wrecking Crew said:

Devil's advocate view via Rotoworld:

Sony Michel might be disappointing fantasy owners with his 3.48 yards per carry on the season, but he continues to be fed the ball week in and week out. He has yet to eclipse 100-yards rushing, a feat that he managed four times in his 13 regular-season games played in his rookie season. He hasn't been flashy, but he's been at least serviceable through bye weeks and mounting injuries. The Patriots have a Week 10 bye, and after that, they face the Eagles, Cowboys, Texans. Not the best matchups, sure, but the real magic happens during your fantasy football playoffs: Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Buffalo. Michel's disappointing season has driven down his cost significantly, but he's a cheap insurance policy that would pay off handsomely through your championship weeks.

Have a team floating Davante Adams as trade bait. Know it is not Assistant Coach's Forum, but does Sony/JuJu get that done?

I wouldn't want ANY of Adams sony, or juju. Trust me I have all 3 and has made me not to want to play next year. Juju is going to be a 3 or 4 reception 40 yard player all year. Adams will probably be affected by the toe injury rest of season. Michel's garbage 1 yard tds will come to an end very soon, and that is all he is good for.

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