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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Sony Michel, Patriots


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If  NE's RB usage patterns give you pause something to consider, not a decision maker as there is a lot to consider here but a reason why I think this is a good landing spot for Michel and not worried

Just heard a 15 minute discussion about this exact issue on the radio. Last year, when Michel was in the game he got the ball 85% of the time. Because of that, teams have been playing 8 in the box. As

Let’s not exaggerate. It’s only been 22. 

I am trying to convince myself to take him at 1.03.  I  think you can effectively put him, Penny, Chubb, Freeman and Jones in a bag, mix 'em up and pick one and be content with what you've got.

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6 minutes ago, nirad3 said:

I am trying to convince myself to take him at 1.03.  I  think you can effectively put him, Penny, Chubb, Freeman and Jones in a bag, mix 'em up and pick one and be content with what you've got.

1.03 for me and it's the same .... Penny / Jones / Michel. Most likely scenario if I can't trade down is to go homer and take Sony. Then cry when he fumbles and gets benched. QQ

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24 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

1.03 for me and it's the same .... Penny / Jones / Michel. Most likely scenario if I can't trade down is to go homer and take Sony. Then cry when he fumbles and gets benched. QQ

I've been trying to trade down, but every time I get someone sniffing around I get gunshy... thinking that I may lose out on Michel.  That should make me comfortable taking him at 3, albeit perhaps a bit of a reach.  We can cry together.  :oldunsure:

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5 hours ago, Flying Elvis said:

1.03 for me and it's the same .... Penny / Jones / Michel.

If  NE's RB usage patterns give you pause something to consider, not a decision maker as there is a lot to consider here but a reason why I think this is a good landing spot for Michel and not worried about his usage as it relates to the his comp.

In PPR production, weeks 1-16 this is total team production from the RB position:

NE-512

TB-265

Seattle- 222(dead last)

Just looking at last years total team production if Michel was a part time role player and got 40% of that production from last year Jones would need got get 77% of Tampa's production and Penny 92% of Seattle's to match Michel's 40% of NE production.

Ok you say, that was last year and while NE drafted Michel high the other two teams had major RB needs and will see more growth then NE. I agree. So look at this way, and I'll just hold Michel down to 40% on all of this outlook.

If Tampa and Seattle improve RB fantasy production by 25% and NE remains the same Penny would need 73.3% of Seattle's production and Jones 61.16% of Tampa's to equal Sony's 40%. If Tampa and Seattle improve 50% from last year Penny would need to hit 61.2% of team production and Jones 51.2% to match what Sony will do at 40% of NE production.

 

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55 minutes ago, menobrown said:

If  NE's RB usage patterns give you pause something to consider, not a decision maker as there is a lot to consider here but a reason why I think this is a good landing spot for Michel and not worried about his usage as it relates to the his comp.

In PPR production, weeks 1-16 this is total team production from the RB position:

NE-512

TB-265

Seattle- 222(dead last)

Just looking at last years total team production if Michel was a part time role player and got 40% of that production from last year Jones would need got get 77% of Tampa's production and Penny 92% of Seattle's to match Michel's 40% of NE production.

Ok you say, that was last year and while NE drafted Michel high the other two teams had major RB needs and will see more growth then NE. I agree. So look at this way, and I'll just hold Michel down to 40% on all of this outlook.

If Tampa and Seattle improve RB fantasy production by 25% and NE remains the same Penny would need 73.3% of Seattle's production and Jones 61.16% of Tampa's to equal Sony's 40%. If Tampa and Seattle improve 50% from last year Penny would need to hit 61.2% of team production and Jones 51.2% to match what Sony will do at 40% of NE production.

 

That’s some good #### man

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Was staring at the choice between Penny and Michel at 1.05 and ended up going Penny after much internal debate. Just couldn't get over the stigma of NE backfield unpredictability. Watch this be the start of a new workhorse era for the Pats...

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7 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

That’s some good #### man

Thanks, just another part of the puzzle. It's been messing with my mind trying to decide what I'm going to do at pick 3, constantly changing my mind and I still have not made it up yet but what I do like Michel's 2018 chances for production the most. He'd be my #2 redraft rookie RB.

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Guessing we are discussing Dynasty. Michel worries me for three reasons.

1. Do I want a piece of the backfield when BB and Brady are gone? The whole change of a new head coach and a new QB taking over for Brady in the next 2-3 years maybe sooner.

2. The running back by committee that is the New England running game. Is Michel just a Dion Lewis replacement not that this is a horrible thing but is it his ceiling or floor?

3. How long is the rope for Michel when he puts the ball on the dirt like you know he is going too. Will BB take him out for 3 weeks?

All of that said he is a tremendous talent and you should grab if you can IF you are comfortable with the above 3 statements and okay with the Dion Lewis floor and the unpredictability of BB.

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26 minutes ago, osubuckeyeman said:

Guessing we are discussing Dynasty. Michel worries me for three reasons.

1. Do I want a piece of the backfield when BB and Brady are gone? The whole change of a new head coach and a new QB taking over for Brady in the next 2-3 years maybe sooner.

2. The running back by committee that is the New England running game. Is Michel just a Dion Lewis replacement not that this is a horrible thing but is it his ceiling or floor?

3. How long is the rope for Michel when he puts the ball on the dirt like you know he is going too. Will BB take him out for 3 weeks?

All of that said he is a tremendous talent and you should grab if you can IF you are comfortable with the above 3 statements and okay with the Dion Lewis floor and the unpredictability of BB.

I agree with your comments but #1 might actually be a positive for him... meaning that if/when B.B. is gone, the committee approach NE uses might go away and Michel becomes a 3 down player.  Obviously losing Brady will hurt him no matter what. But I’m not sure losing B.B. is a negative. 

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6 hours ago, mcintyre1 said:

Was staring at the choice between Penny and Michel at 1.05 and ended up going Penny after much internal debate. Just couldn't get over the stigma of NE backfield unpredictability. Watch this be the start of a new workhorse era for the Pats...

I think thats certainly possible.

This is the highest investment the Patriots have made in a RB for a long time. There was a nice article about that, maybe linked already in the thread talking about the Patriots losing to the Colts in the AFC Championship game and that is when Bill decided they needed to throw the ball more and he started not investing as much into the RB position. Perhaps Maroney not panning out was a part of that too. They had a lot of success with Corey Dillon prior to that, and at the time were looking to replace him, but Maroney wasn't as good, plus he got injured as well.

The Patriots still have run the ball a ton. But they pass to score and establish a lead, then they run the ball more. Depends on the match up as well. If running the ball a lot is the best way to beat their current opponent that is what they will do, just as they will pass the ball all game if that is the match up calls for that.

They did pay Lewis and I think they were hoping he could handle more than he did. There were certainly times where he was playing very well. There was a playoff game where Lewis couldn't get going, and they ended up using White a lot more later in the game. Bill does not get locked in to a game plan if its not working.

Brady is getting older and very possible they want to run the ball more and not ask Brady to do quite as much in the years ahead. They couldn't count on Lewis for that. Can they count on Michel?

Sony Michel hasn't been a true workhorse for most of his college career. The highest amount of total plays for him was in 2015 because Chubb was injured.

Just looking at the game logs for Michel in 2015 Chubb was the starter until the game against Tennessee where he got injured after only one carry. Starting here Michel does have 20 or more rushing attempts in seven of the 8 games left that season. Just looking at the numbers he kind of struggled with 3 of those 8 games being below 4 ypc. He had 3 very good games against Tennessee, Kentucky and Georgia Tech. In 2016 his games against Kentucky and Georgia Tech were the two best games 

I am not sure how well he will do if he does become a workhorse RB. Could be great or maybe he fumbles too much and Bill changes his mind. That is if Bill is planning to use Michel more than he did Lewis.

I did move Michel up to tier one.and the 5th RB of the class after initially reacting to the pick by having him tier two (at the top of it). The reason why I moved him to the bottom of tier one is because the Patriots offense has been so good. If Michel can earn a significant percentage of that, even with continued RBBC he could still be a top 12 RB. There is risk however.

James White is not going away. Recently we have been talking about Duke Johnson and Chris Thompson limiting opportunities for Chubb and Guice as a receiver. James is very good at that too. Now Michel may prove to be very good as a receiver as well, but I still see White limiting his upside. Last season Lewis only had 2.1 targets per game which was fewer than the 3.4 targets per game he had in 2016. They kept using White in that role even in games where Lewis was doing good as a receiver as well. 

Edited by Biabreakable
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3 hours ago, menobrown said:

If  NE's RB usage patterns give you pause something to consider, not a decision maker as there is a lot to consider here but a reason why I think this is a good landing spot for Michel and not worried about his usage as it relates to the his comp.

In PPR production, weeks 1-16 this is total team production from the RB position:

NE-512

TB-265

Seattle- 222(dead last)

Just looking at last years total team production if Michel was a part time role player and got 40% of that production from last year Jones would need got get 77% of Tampa's production and Penny 92% of Seattle's to match Michel's 40% of NE production.

Ok you say, that was last year and while NE drafted Michel high the other two teams had major RB needs and will see more growth then NE. I agree. So look at this way, and I'll just hold Michel down to 40% on all of this outlook.

If Tampa and Seattle improve RB fantasy production by 25% and NE remains the same Penny would need 73.3% of Seattle's production and Jones 61.16% of Tampa's to equal Sony's 40%. If Tampa and Seattle improve 50% from last year Penny would need to hit 61.2% of team production and Jones 51.2% to match what Sony will do at 40% of NE production.

 

Yeah but 90% of the 40% of Michel's production will come in the two games you didn't start him after you had him in your lineup while he got 4 carries the week prior. :P

 

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5 hours ago, menobrown said:

If  NE's RB usage patterns give you pause something to consider, not a decision maker as there is a lot to consider here but a reason why I think this is a good landing spot for Michel and not worried about his usage as it relates to the his comp.

In PPR production, weeks 1-16 this is total team production from the RB position:

NE-512

TB-265

Seattle- 222(dead last)

Just looking at last years total team production if Michel was a part time role player and got 40% of that production from last year Jones would need got get 77% of Tampa's production and Penny 92% of Seattle's to match Michel's 40% of NE production.

Ok you say, that was last year and while NE drafted Michel high the other two teams had major RB needs and will see more growth then NE. I agree. So look at this way, and I'll just hold Michel down to 40% on all of this outlook.

If Tampa and Seattle improve RB fantasy production by 25% and NE remains the same Penny would need 73.3% of Seattle's production and Jones 61.16% of Tampa's to equal Sony's 40%. If Tampa and Seattle improve 50% from last year Penny would need to hit 61.2% of team production and Jones 51.2% to match what Sony will do at 40% of NE production.

 

What happens when Brady gets hurt or retires and Hoyer is the qb? Lewis was a pretty good player not sure Michel’s ceiling is that much higher asa rookie. And who knows what things look like in two years, there’s a lot of variables.

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1 hour ago, voiceofunreason said:

What happens when Brady gets hurt or retires and Hoyer is the qb? Lewis was a pretty good player not sure Michel’s ceiling is that much higher asa rookie. And who knows what things look like in two years, there’s a lot of variables.

I’m sorry, but was dion Lewis really that great? I took penny and Michel at 3/4,  even though if you look back I probably am beating the drum against Michel due to his fumbling. I do think it makes sense to bring in a workhorse at Brady’s age, and see the huge upside to Michel. Yes the usage and the fumbling, and I may have gone a different direction had I not had 2 picks there. Tried moving back a few spots to have someone else decide for me but in the end the draft slot and upside of Sony was too appealing. 

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On ‎5‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 9:30 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

Yeah but 90% of the 40% of Michel's production will come in the two games you didn't start him after you had him in your lineup while he got 4 carries the week prior. :P

 

This is the real concern.  If you look at the final numbers of NE players they tend to look very good but if you look at a game by game basis they might get 80% of the production one week and 20% the next two.

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The more I read about this guy the more I like him... 

I'm just not sure if I can bring myself to trust BB will use a bellcow when he's really almost never used one in the past... But I'm sure I'll psych myself into taking him and then kick myself for thinking an old dog can learn new tricks
 

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On 5/4/2018 at 5:38 PM, menobrown said:

If  NE's RB usage patterns give you pause something to consider, not a decision maker as there is a lot to consider here but a reason why I think this is a good landing spot for Michel and not worried about his usage as it relates to the his comp.

In PPR production, weeks 1-16 this is total team production from the RB position:

NE-512

TB-265

Seattle- 222(dead last)

Just looking at last years total team production if Michel was a part time role player and got 40% of that production from last year Jones would need got get 77% of Tampa's production and Penny 92% of Seattle's to match Michel's 40% of NE production.

Ok you say, that was last year and while NE drafted Michel high the other two teams had major RB needs and will see more growth then NE. I agree. So look at this way, and I'll just hold Michel down to 40% on all of this outlook.

If Tampa and Seattle improve RB fantasy production by 25% and NE remains the same Penny would need 73.3% of Seattle's production and Jones 61.16% of Tampa's to equal Sony's 40%. If Tampa and Seattle improve 50% from last year Penny would need to hit 61.2% of team production and Jones 51.2% to match what Sony will do at 40% of NE production.

 

This is great assessment.  I admit that Michel is bit polarizing player who can be difficult to assess in term of FF potential.  One thing I do know that works in his favor is Patriots' OC McDaniels' shrewd play-calling.  And I trust him far more than Seahawks' new OC Brian Schottenheimer, which is why I feel Penny is much more riskier than Michel. 

 

On 5/5/2018 at 6:57 AM, Soulfly3 said:

I wonder if Bill knew that Sony had some fumbling issues in his career before he took him in the 1st...

I wonder.

Oh, I'm sure Belichick knew Michel's fumbling issue in college, nevertheless, I'm fairly confident in Belichick's hard coaching to drill Michel on correcting his ball-handling deficiency. 

Edited by Aznflyer14
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5 minutes ago, Aznflyer14 said:

This is great assessment.  I admit that Michel is bit polarizing player who can be difficult to assess in term of FF potential.  One thing I do know that works in his favor is Patriots' OC McDaniels' shrewd play-calling.  And I trust him far more than Seahawks' new OC Brian Schottenheimer.  I feel Penny is much more riskier than Michel. 

 

Oh, I'm sure Belichick knew Michel's fumbling issue in college, nevertheless, I'm fairly confident in Belichick's hard coaching to drill Michel on correcting his ball-handling deficiency. 

I agree 100% with the first bolded


Regarding the second bolded... Belichick has yet, to my knowledge, to "coach out" fumbling issues. 

In recent memory, he just goes onto the next guy if someone fumbles. Often times the fumbler gets put into the proverbial doghouse.
The last time NE had a true "bell cow," to my knowledge, was Corey Dillon. Corey Dillon had 5 fumbles that year, which is high for a RB IMO and ties his career high. The next 2 seasons he spent with NE he saw his carries and yardage almost cut in half (and, thus, his fumbles also cut in half). 
After that 2004 season we saw a RBBC approach (unless I'm missing a RB somewhere in there who got over 300 carries and over 1500 yards).

So it stands to reason that NE has not had a bell cow since 2004. Do we really think that will change all of a sudden? with a RB who puts the ball on the ground 1 time every 54.6 touches? 

 

Don't get me wrong, I do like the guy. I think he is intriguing talent similar to that of McCoy, but I haven't yet seen Belichick coach out fumbling, and I'm thinking we may see a Kevin Faulk jr in Michel versus a McCoy jr 

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I'm going to take some crap for this, but so be it: it seems like people are overwhelmingly dismissing Rex Burkhead, and I think he needs to be reckoned with in this RB equation. Big fan of Sony, very exciting electrifying runner, can break one at any time, for sure...but Burkhead is an all-business competitor who's got plenty of Dion Lewis in him, IMHO, and I think a guy like Rex actually sees Lewis' departure as a confidence builder, and the drafting of Michel as a motivational boost. I think he's the most complete back on that roster now, I think the Pats know what they have in him, and I think he's going to push the hell out of the Pats to keep him on the field. I don't have the capital to move up to take Michel where he's going in Rookie Drafts and I'm not willing to spend his Auction value, but I'm grabbing Burkhead late and for pennies everywhere I can right now. If I'm wrong, it's a cheap mistake.

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16 minutes ago, nittanylion said:

I'm going to take some crap for this, but so be it: it seems like people are overwhelmingly dismissing Rex Burkhead, and I think he needs to be reckoned with in this RB equation. Big fan of Sony, very exciting electrifying runner, can break one at any time, for sure...but Burkhead is an all-business competitor who's got plenty of Dion Lewis in him, IMHO, and I think a guy like Rex actually sees Lewis' departure as a confidence builder, and the drafting of Michel as a motivational boost. I think he's the most complete back on that roster now, I think the Pats know what they have in him, and I think he's going to push the hell out of the Pats to keep him on the field. I don't have the capital to move up to take Michel where he's going in Rookie Drafts and I'm not willing to spend his Auction value, but I'm grabbing Burkhead late and for pennies everywhere I can right now. If I'm wrong, it's a cheap mistake.

As a guy who went after Burkhead in all leagues last year, I hope there's some truth here.

That said I did draft Michel at 1.03 in one dynasty just in case we're wrong.  :)

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1 hour ago, nittanylion said:

I'm going to take some crap for this, but so be it: it seems like people are overwhelmingly dismissing Rex Burkhead, and I think he needs to be reckoned with in this RB equation. Big fan of Sony, very exciting electrifying runner, can break one at any time, for sure...but Burkhead is an all-business competitor who's got plenty of Dion Lewis in him, IMHO, and I think a guy like Rex actually sees Lewis' departure as a confidence builder, and the drafting of Michel as a motivational boost. I think he's the most complete back on that roster now, I think the Pats know what they have in him, and I think he's going to push the hell out of the Pats to keep him on the field. I don't have the capital to move up to take Michel where he's going in Rookie Drafts and I'm not willing to spend his Auction value, but I'm grabbing Burkhead late and for pennies everywhere I can right now. If I'm wrong, it's a cheap mistake.

You make some good points. Sony is going to be over-drafted in many redraft leagues where Rex will be able to be had for cheap... and may very well be the better back to own when it's all said and done. Similar to Blount always being under-drafted in NE. 

I can't help but laugh though when people bring up "motivational boost" when a player is over-drafted the way Rex was this last NFL draft. Goes back to the "ploy to motivate Tatum Bell" days... always brings back great memories. No, I don't think drafting a RB round one has ignited some flame under Rex that wasn't previously lit last year, or any other year in his career. Yes, I think these guys are highly competitive (can't make it that far if you're not!), but I think many of them look at it as a team approach anyways; "if this guy can come in and we can work together to win a Super Bowl, great." I think many of us assume because some athletes have huge egos and have to be "the guy," have to be making X number of dollars, are so worried about being the highest paid at their position, and those are the guys that make the most noise when it comes to these issues... we forget that the majority of the league is full of team players who just want to play and just want to win. 

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

You make some good points. Sony is going to be over-drafted in many redraft leagues where Rex will be able to be had for cheap... and may very well be the better back to own when it's all said and done. Similar to Blount always being under-drafted in NE. 

I can't help but laugh though when people bring up "motivational boost" when a player is over-drafted the way Rex was this last NFL draft. Goes back to the "ploy to motivate Tatum Bell" days... always brings back great memories. No, I don't think drafting a RB round one has ignited some flame under Rex that wasn't previously lit last year, or any other year in his career. Yes, I think these guys are highly competitive (can't make it that far if you're not!), but I think many of them look at it as a team approach anyways; "if this guy can come in and we can work together to win a Super Bowl, great." I think many of us assume because some athletes have huge egos and have to be "the guy," have to be making X number of dollars, are so worried about being the highest paid at their position, and those are the guys that make the most noise when it comes to these issues... we forget that the majority of the league is full of team players who just want to play and just want to win. 

It seems like that for those guys that are highly motivated, something like getting taken later in the draft than they envisioned can be channeled and used as extra fuel for the fire.  However, for the guys that aren't that motivated, they will pretty much go as far as their natural talent will allow them to.  Just imagine if someone with a physical talent level like Randy Moss had the attitude and motivation of someone like a Steve Smith and we'd have seen his name at the top of all of the record books instead of Jerry Rice's. 

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Just now, Men-in-Cleats said:

It seems like that for those guys that are highly motivated, something like getting taken later in the draft than they envisioned can be channeled and used as extra fuel for the fire.  However, for the guys that aren't that motivated, they will pretty much go as far as their natural talent will allow them to.  Just imagine if someone with a physical talent level like Randy Moss had the attitude and motivation of someone like a Steve Smith and we'd have seen his name at the top of all of the record books instead of Jerry Rice's. 

Yes, I agree completely. I can't say how motivated Rex Burkhead or even Sony Michel are. They are likely very self-motivated. Do they care if they are the #1 guy? Michel might more than Burkhead. I don't know. Burkhead may be perfectly content with his status. The guy gets paid over a million dollars to play a game, for some that's enough. His contract is up when he turns 30... he likely is never going to be making the big bucks unless he just explodes this year and holds out next year (which likely won't work in his favor). I can speculate all I want I guess, but you're right... the more motivated will likely achieve more. By no means did I mean what I said as a blanket statement applying to all. Perfect example: Aaron Rodgers to this day talks about sitting on draft day and using that as motivation. He is obviously highly motivated and used that fuel to make himself a better player. I'm not sure Rex stands out as that kind of guy, but I could be wrong. 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Regarding the second bolded... Belichick has yet, to my knowledge, to "coach out" fumbling issues. 

In recent memory, he just goes onto the next guy if someone fumbles. Often times the fumbler gets put into the proverbial doghouse.
The last time NE had a true "bell cow," to my knowledge, was Corey Dillon. Corey Dillon had 5 fumbles that year, which is high for a RB IMO and ties his career high. The next 2 seasons he spent with NE he saw his carries and yardage almost cut in half (and, thus, his fumbles also cut in half). 
After that 2004 season we saw a RBBC approach (unless I'm missing a RB somewhere in there who got over 300 carries and over 1500 yards).

So it stands to reason that NE has not had a bell cow since 2004. Do we really think that will change all of a sudden? with a RB who puts the ball on the ground 1 time every 54.6 touches? 

 

Thanks for a cold refreshing reminder on Belichick's utterly disdain for any fumble made by his offensive players.  You are 100% correct that a repeated fumbler is likely to end up being in Belichick's doghouse (Stevan Ridley).  I like to think Michel to be receptive to Belichick's hard coaching. 

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3 hours ago, Faust said:

Legitimate question:

How many more years do we expect that Bill Belichick will be coaching the Patriots?

At least two based on Brady's agreement with his wife.

Not sure why Bill wouldn't keep coaching the Patriots after Brady, but if he does want to retire it might coincide with Brady hanging it up I suppose.

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Glen Farley‏ @GFarley_ent

How can first-round draft pick Sony Michel expect to be dealt with if the fumble problems that plagued him at times in college carry over to the pros? "Let him sit on the bench a little while," #Patriots running backs coach Ivan Fears said. #entsports

4:22 PM - 13 May 2018

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On 5/14/2018 at 11:09 AM, zeeshan2 said:

Glen Farley‏ @GFarley_ent

How can first-round draft pick Sony Michel expect to be dealt with if the fumble problems that plagued him at times in college carry over to the pros? "Let him sit on the bench a little while," #Patriots running backs coach Ivan Fears said. #entsports

4:22 PM - 13 May 2018

This is what makes me nervous about the landing spot... Not only does NE like to play matchups, but fumbling is absolutely not tolerated.

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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

This is what makes me nervous about the landing spot... Not only does NE like to play matchups, but fumbling is absolutely not tolerated.

There seems to be very little correlation between fumble problems in college and fumble problems in the NFL.  There was also some stat floating around (I can't find it right now) about how some of the NCAA's biggest fumblers have become pretty consistently highly ranked fantasy backs in the NFL.  Probably just coincidence but it certainly hasn't hurt those guys.

ETA biggest fumblers of the last few years.

2014
Melvin Gordon - 7
Jay Ajayi - 7

2015
Alex Collins - 5
Sony Michel - 5

2016
Dalvin Cook - 6
Joe Mixon - 5
Alvin Kamara - 5

This issue seems way overblown.  And Sony didn't even have fumble problems this year to boot so maybe he's already fixed it.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

There seems to be very little correlation between fumble problems in college and fumble problems in the NFL.  There was also some stat floating around (I can't find it right now) about how some of the NCAA's biggest fumblers have become pretty consistently highly ranked fantasy backs in the NFL.  Probably just coincidence but it certainly hasn't hurt those guys.

ETA biggest fumblers of the last few years.

2014
Melvin Gordon - 7
Jay Ajayi - 7

2015
Alex Collins - 5
Sony Michel - 5

2016
Dalvin Cook - 6
Joe Mixon - 5
Alvin Kamara - 5

This issue seems way overblown.  And Sony didn't even have fumble problems this year to boot so maybe he's already fixed it.

No correlation.  Someone forgot to tell that to Ameer Abdullah.  He will be looking for work later this summer. 

Bill won’t tolerate fumbling.  He won’t hesitate to bench a first round pick.  I think he benched Malcom Butler in the Super Bowl because he looked at him funny.  

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I agree with Donny. The players who fumble a lot, you wont know them because they won't play. The ones who do have to be great otherwise they won't play. The coaches won't put up with it and Bill will not put up with it. Thats what is so strange about the Patriots drafting Michel. Will Michel be great?

Maybe.

Will he correct the fumbling?

Maybe.

Will Michel become a featured RB getting 200+ touches in a season if he continues fumbling?

Hell no.

Tiki Barber almost didn't get a shot to show how great he was because he had to fix this issue.

Putting up raw fumbles isn't very meaningful. Gordon and Ajayi touched the ball a ton of times in college. Mixon and Michel didn't.

What is meaningful is fumbles per touch, and Michels fumble frequency is alarming.

2018 NFL Draft: Fumble rates for all running back prospects

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4 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I agree with Donny. The players who fumble a lot, you wont know them because they won't play. The ones who do have to be great otherwise they won't play. The coaches won't put up with it and Bill will not put up with it. Thats what is so strange about the Patriots drafting Michel. Will Michel be great?

Maybe.

Will he correct the fumbling?

Maybe.

Will Michel become a featured RB getting 200+ touches in a season if he continues fumbling?

Hell no.

Tiki Barber almost didn't get a shot to show how great he was because he had to fix this issue.

Putting up raw fumbles isn't very meaningful. Gordon and Ajayi touched the ball a ton of times in college. Mixon and Michel didn't.

What is meaningful is fumbles per touch, and Michels fumble frequency is alarming.

2018 NFL Draft: Fumble rates for all running back prospects

I said this pre draft a bunch, then drafted him. :toilet:

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Dion Lewis had some issues fumbling during his breakout season and was not benched. If Michel can prove to be an effective part of the offense he will get some leeway. Hopefully though he spends some time during the offseason working on it.

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7 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Putting up raw fumbles isn't very meaningful. Gordon and Ajayi touched the ball a ton of times in college. Mixon and Michel didn't.

What is meaningful is fumbles per touch, and Michels fumble frequency is alarming.

2018 NFL Draft: Fumble rates for all running back prospects

Gordon fumbled once every 51 touches his senior season in college.  Ajayi once every 56 touches his last year, and Cook once every 53 touches his final season.

Sony had fumble issues three years ago as an undersized sophomore.  Last year as a senior he fumbled once every 82 touches.

P.S. Dion Lewis fumbled once every 39 touches his breakout year in NE where he got hurt.

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I mean, he has to beat out Burkhead. Half kidding, half not, the Pats are the one team I could see playing their first round RB behind a guy who was thought of as only special teams help.

Also, just recently no one wanted to touch the NE RBs because you could never predict week to week who would get touches. Why is that different now? It could be/probably will be Michel, Burkhead, White, and one of Gillislee/Hill all sharing the load. I'd be shocked if any RB has more than 175 touches.

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26 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

Also, just recently no one wanted to touch the NE RBs because you could never predict week to week who would get touches. Why is that different now? It could be/probably will be Michel, Burkhead, White, and one of Gillislee/Hill all sharing the load. I'd be shocked if any RB has more than 175 touches.

A lot of people still feel that way.  Hence why Michel on the best offense in the league is still typically being picked in rookie drafts behind several guys that were drafted later to worse teams.

As to what's changed, the Pats finally spent some real capital on a RB and it happened to be on one with a very similar skillset with a guy that they gave very consistent touches to the 2nd half of last season.  Dion Lewis averaged 17.8 touches/game the 2nd half of last season.

Obviously there is plenty of risk about Sony actually getting that usage though.  If there wasn't he would be locked in as the consensus 1.02.

I do agree that Burkhead is a concern.  His skillset overlaps with Sony's and he's a pretty good player himself.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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32 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

I mean, he has to beat out Burkhead. Half kidding, half not, the Pats are the one team I could see playing their first round RB behind a guy who was thought of as only special teams help.

Also, just recently no one wanted to touch the NE RBs because you could never predict week to week who would get touches. Why is that different now? It could be/probably will be Michel, Burkhead, White, and one of Gillislee/Hill all sharing the load. I'd be shocked if any RB has more than 175 touches.

It depends on what you see. I see Burkhead/White as average talents (I have had White on my roster for two years) and Gillislee/Hill as non-factors.

It's the old adage of,  in the NFL if you have a lot of something you probably don't have any of it. 

I think Michel looks a lot more talented than any of those guys. 

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1 hour ago, steelers1080 said:

I mean, he has to beat out Burkhead. Half kidding, half not, the Pats are the one team I could see playing their first round RB behind a guy who was thought of as only special teams help.

Also, just recently no one wanted to touch the NE RBs because you could never predict week to week who would get touches. Why is that different now? It could be/probably will be Michel, Burkhead, White, and one of Gillislee/Hill all sharing the load. I'd be shocked if any RB has more than 175 touches.

By whom?

1 hour ago, steelers1080 said:

I mean, he has to beat out Burkhead. Half kidding, half not, the Pats are the one team I could see playing their first round RB behind a guy who was thought of as only special teams help.

Also, just recently no one wanted to touch the NE RBs because you could never predict week to week who would get touches. Why is that different now? It could be/probably will be Michel, Burkhead, White, and one of Gillislee/Hill all sharing the load. I'd be shocked if any RB has more than 175 touches.

Because they spent a 1st round pick on him.  That hasn't happened since 2006.  There are a ton of inferences you can draw from that (reduce dependence on Brady, don't trust WR's, setting up future post-Brady/BB, defense choked in SB and now they lost their DC) and they all support a narrative that the RB will get a lot more involved.

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19 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

By whom?

Because they spent a 1st round pick on him.  That hasn't happened since 2006.  There are a ton of inferences you can draw from that (reduce dependence on Brady, don't trust WR's, setting up future post-Brady/BB, defense choked in SB and now they lost their DC) and they all support a narrative that the RB will get a lot more involved.

They spent a second round pick in 2011 on Shane Vereen then proceeded to give most of their carries to a guy they got as an undrafted FA's in Benjarvis Green Ellis, a guy they got a round later in Steven Ridley, and another undrafted FA in Danny Woodhead.  Tom Brady ended up with more rushing attempts than their second round pick as did Kevin Faulk as well.  Despite spending a second round pick on him, which is still relatively high position for a RB since not many go in the first, he ended up mired in a committee that rendered pretty much all of them useless for fantasy.  Even if they reduce the amount that they do it they will utilize the majority of the backs that they keep in various roles and it will reduce the value of each and every one of them. 

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4 minutes ago, Men-in-Cleats said:

They spent a second round pick in 2011 on Shane Vereen then proceeded to give most of their carries to a guy they got as an undrafted FA's in Benjarvis Green Ellis, a guy they got a round later in Steven Ridley, and another undrafted FA in Danny Woodhead.  Tom Brady ended up with more rushing attempts than their second round pick as did Kevin Faulk as well.  Despite spending a second round pick on him, which is still relatively high position for a RB since not many go in the first, he ended up mired in a committee that rendered pretty much all of them useless for fantasy.  Even if they reduce the amount that they do it they will utilize the majority of the backs that they keep in various roles and it will reduce the value of each and every one of them. 

None of that refutes that they planned on giving him more work.  I don't know if Vereen was hurt, if they liked BJGE's pass pro better, or if Vereen was just terrible.  Maybe his game just didn't translate the way they expected it to.  He was also a late 2nd round, not a late 1st round, and that's a significantly different level of investment.

They also had an in-his-prime Tom Brady throwing for over 5200 yards that year so there's that too.

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2 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Gordon fumbled once every 51 touches his senior season in college.  Ajayi once every 56 touches his last year, and Cook once every 53 touches his final season.

Sony had fumble issues three years ago as an undersized sophomore.  Last year as a senior he fumbled once every 82 touches.

P.S. Dion Lewis fumbled once every 39 touches his breakout year in NE where he got hurt.

Your moving the sticks a bit here with some selection bias to better present your point.

Its actually kind of annoying to find fumble stats for college football but Dane Bugler is using CBS stats for this. In your previous post your citing fumbles lost not just fumbles. There is a difference.

Just looking at CBS college stats for career fumbles Jay Ajayi, Melvin Gordon and Sony Michel all had 12 fumbles in college.  Gordon and Ajayi lost 7 of these and Michel lost 5 of these.

Looking at total touches those 3 are pretty close although Michel played one more year than the other two.

Gordon 653 touches 12 fumbles one fumble every 54 touches
Ajayi 751 touches 12 fumbles one fumble every 62 touches
Michel 655 touches 12 fumbles one fumble every 54 touches

So according to Buglers post all 3 of these guys were coughing it up more frequently than the average RB.

Obviously Bill and the Patriots are aware of this and they drafted Michel in the first round anyways. They have a plan or it wasn't enough of a concern for them to pass on Michel.

The fumbles are obviously all different. So I am going to guess that the Patriots felt those fumbles with Michel were fluke plays or that Michels ball security was something that can be fixed with coaching.

I am not really buying that coaches don't care about this or that Bill is more tolerant of it. Maybe more tolerant than Tom Coughlin was with Tiki Barber though.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

In your previous post your citing fumbles lost not just fumbles. There is a difference.

Incorrect.  I was using fumbles, not fumbles lost.  It was probably just confusing because I was referencing leading fumblers (all fumbles, not lost fumbles) in those individual college seasons and coincidentally all of them had the same number of fumbles in that season as they had fumbles lost in their career.  Kind of a strange coincidence, but that's probably where the confusion set in.

I was using foxsports for the fumble data, which lists fumbles in their game logs.

So per your data, for their career all of these guys had similar fumble per touch numbers, and it obviously hasn't been a problem so far in the NFL for Gordon/Ajayi/Cook.  And per my data, unlike those three Sony actually showed improvement through his career, improving his fumble rate each year until as a senior he fumbled only once every 85 touches (still not great, but getting close to average).  Gordon/Ajayi/Cook meanwhile continued to struggle all the way through their career, still fumbling in the once per ~55 carries range all the way through their final year in college.

Of course I'm not saying it's a non-issue, but I think it's being blown way out of proportion.  People are fixating on the 5 fumbles Sony had as a sophomore (which was before he bulked up), not the 2 fumbles he had as a senior.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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