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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Sony Michel, Patriots


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10 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Incorrect.  I was using fumbles, not fumbles lost.  It was probably just confusing because I was referencing leading fumblers (all fumbles, not lost fumbles) in those individual college seasons and coincidentally all of them had the same number of fumbles in that season as they had fumbles lost in their career.  Kind of a strange coincidence, but that's probably where the confusion set in.

I was using foxsports for the fumble data, which lists fumbles in their game logs.

So per your data, for their career all of these guys had similar fumble per touch numbers, and it obviously hasn't been a problem so far in the NFL for Gordon/Ajayi/Cook.  And per my data, unlike those three Sony actually showed improvement through his career, improving his fumble rate each year until as a senior he fumbled only once every 85 touches (still not great, but getting close to average).  Gordon/Ajayi/Cook meanwhile continued to struggle all the way through their career, still fumbling in the once per ~55 carries range all the way through their final year in college.

Of course I'm not saying it's a non-issue, but I think it's being blown way out of proportion.  People are fixating on the 5 fumbles Sony had as a sophomore (which was before he bulked up), not the 2 fumbles he had as a senior.

I'm not interested in arguing about this further but your statement that I am incorrect is incorrect.

Sony Michel 12 fumbles over 4 seasons and he lost 5 of those are the facts.

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If  NE's RB usage patterns give you pause something to consider, not a decision maker as there is a lot to consider here but a reason why I think this is a good landing spot for Michel and not worried

Just heard a 15 minute discussion about this exact issue on the radio. Last year, when Michel was in the game he got the ball 85% of the time. Because of that, teams have been playing 8 in the box. As

Let’s not exaggerate. It’s only been 22. 

35 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Sony Michel 12 fumbles over 4 seasons and he lost 5 of those are the facts.

Dude, I never said otherwise.  You're still misreading.

The only time I ever mentioned the number 5 with Michel was that he had 5 fumbles (not lost fumbles) as a sophomore in 2015.  I was not talking about nor never referenced his 5 career lost fumbles.

The only time I mentioned 7 fumbles for Gordon was when I said he had 7 fumbles (not lost fumbles) in his senior season in 2014.  I was not talking about nor never referenced his 7 career lost fumbles.

The only time I mentioned 7 fumbles for Ajayi was when I said he had 7 fumbles (not lost fumbles) in his final college season in 2014.  I was not talking about nor never referenced his 7 career lost fumbles.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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4 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

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Sony Michel just had to take a lap after fumbling in 11-on-11s. Ball security was a big issue for him at Georgia and something he'll have to clean up before the season.

7:52 AM - 28 Jul 2018

he fumbled twice yesterday. not off to a good start. I honestly dont see it happening for him

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8 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

he fumbled twice yesterday. not off to a good start. I honestly dont see it happening for him

Will be interesting to follow. Given Michel already having fumbling issues and Seattle sounding pretty confident in Carson being their lead back, it makes on wonder what in the world 2 of the best franchies of the decade were thinking with those awful draft picks.

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6 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Will be interesting to follow. Given Michel already having fumbling issues and Seattle sounding pretty confident in Carson being their lead back, it makes on wonder what in the world 2 of the best franchies of the decade were thinking with those awful draft picks.

I am sure it won't be long until Patriots fans accuse Belichick of drafting him just to annoy Brady with his fumbles. 

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25 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Will be interesting to follow. Given Michel already having fumbling issues and Seattle sounding pretty confident in Carson being their lead back, it makes on wonder what in the world 2 of the best franchies of the decade were thinking with those awful draft picks.

Yes both picks seriously confused me. Didnt like Michels landing spot at all, and I didnt even see him as the rb3 in this draft (and definitely not Penny rb2). Both franchises draft pretty well, so time will tell

19 minutes ago, Ghost Rider said:

I am sure it won't be long until Patriots fans accuse Belichick of drafting him just to annoy Brady with his fumbles. 

:lmao: true 

that and Belichick passed on a qb in the first 3 rounds just to spite Kraft

Edited by Dr. Dan
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6 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Yes both picks seriously confused me. Didnt like Michels landing spot at all, and I didnt even see him as the rb3 in this draft (and definitely not Penny rb2). Both franchises draft pretty well, so time will tell

 

I actually don't really understand what the Seahawks have been doing with their picks. Since 2012, the Seahawks have only had two 1st round picks. They spent them on a RB and a OG. And it isn't because they have been on New England style trade back path collecting lots of future picks- they don't even have a 2nd rounder next year as they already have traded it away.

Edited by Ilov80s
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I concur, Sony Michel was a head scratching pick. I don't see Michel as better than Guice even when Guice is on crack.   This pick is shockingly bad, fumble problems tend to follow a player. I'll be surprised if he get's more run than Burkhead and Hill.

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5 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

Will be interesting to follow. Given Michel already having fumbling issues and Seattle sounding pretty confident in Carson being their lead back, it makes on wonder what in the world 2 of the best franchies of the decade were thinking with those awful draft picks.

Wait, we already know those picks were awful?

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25 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Wait, we already know those picks were awful?

Yes. They were RBs taken in the 1st round. They weren’t overwhelmingly incredible prospects like Zeke, Barkley. They were drafted by teams in dire need of help at really valuable positions like DE, CB, OT. Seattle was especially bad since it was only their 2nd first round pick 2012. 

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12 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

downgrade Burkhead if he doesn't.

Not neccessary. NE never just gives the ball to a rookie right out the gate. Burkhead is proven and a stud in his own right. Early season it'll be all Burkhead then Michel could carve a role out as the season progresses. 

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6 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Yes. They were RBs taken in the 1st round. They weren’t overwhelmingly incredible prospects like Zeke, Barkley. They were drafted by teams in dire need of help at really valuable positions like DE, CB, OT. Seattle was especially bad since it was only their 2nd first round pick 2012. 

this. while I hold the opinion the players themselves will under perform and will be bad fantasy picks, the picks themselves were bad NFL picks as each team had worse needs than rb. 

even if both RBS turn out to be good fantasy RBS. the pick themselves were likely better used elsewhere. 

 

I bet Seattle thought they were picking round 2, which would explain the Penny selection 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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4 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Not neccessary. NE never just gives the ball to a rookie right out the gate. Burkhead is proven and a stud in his own right. Early season it'll be all Burkhead then Michel could carve a role out as the season progresses. 

One back everyone is forgetting about us Gillislee...

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

One back everyone is forgetting about us Gillislee...

Yeah the thing about Burkhead is he doesn't tip NE hand on what play they are running. He is the perfect RB for that system. He has also had great success and he's earned the coaches trust. 

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1 hour ago, Milkman said:

Yeah the thing about Burkhead is he doesn't tip NE hand on what play they are running. He is the perfect RB for that system. He has also had great success and he's earned the coaches trust. 

Theoretically, Michel would also be the perfect fit

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Today sounded much more positive.

Quote

FOXBORO — Early in Sunday’s practice, Tom Brady rolled to his right, dumped off a short screen pass to Sony Michel, and watched the talented Patriots rookie do the rest.

Michel’s instincts and agility helped him evade the initial wave of defenders. He bounced outside, accelerating quickly, and the crowd of thousands cheered as Michel glided down the sideline.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/patriots/2018/07/pats_rb_sony_michel_shows_big_play_potential

 

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Just now, Milkman said:

He's no Burkhead. Even if he is he's a rookie and putting the ball on the ground. 

IMHO Michel has 10 times the talent of Burkhead...and pretty much every NFL talent evaluator would tell you the same.

Burkhead is a nice role player...nothing more.

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Lol at siting talent evaluators as your basis. You know what talent evaluators in the NFL do? They take the safe route and jump on big school prospects and echo everybody else. That's a great way to keep that cushy gig they have. 

I'll leave now though. Carry on. Michel is going to take over that backfield as a rookie. My bad. 

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26 minutes ago, Milkman said:

He's no Burkhead. Even if he is he's a rookie and putting the ball on the ground. 

Are we talking about a player with five years of NFL experience, is 28 years old, that has TOTALED 639 rushing yards?

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5 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

Yes. They were RBs taken in the 1st round. They weren’t overwhelmingly incredible prospects like Zeke, Barkley. They were drafted by teams in dire need of help at really valuable positions like DE, CB, OT. Seattle was especially bad since it was only their 2nd first round pick 2012. 

Oh.

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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When talking about a player like Michel and the Pats you should only look at the big picture (which is his talent)...BB has never under-utilized talent on the offensive-side of things...no one leaves the Pats and a couple of years later you end up saying BB should have used him more...if you are a stud like Moss, Gronk, Edelman, Welker, Troy Brown kind of for a few years or Dillon he is going to use you a ton and you are going to put up legit numbers...if you are not a stud/high end talent he is going to use you as some type of role-player or use you based on game situations (and often these two over-lap)...these are players like Blount, Lewis, Maroney, Faulk, Branch, BGJE, Patten, Gaffney, Amendola, Hogan, Givens, Fauria, Graham and Watson...that group has provided fantasy owners a lot of headaches over the years... so my point about Michel is do not worry about anything other than whether you think talent-wise he belongs in the first group or the second...if you are sold on his talent grab him...if not than pass on him...it is that simple...evaluating this kid should be based 100% on talent because that will ultimately dictate how much BB uses him... 

Edited by Boston
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1 minute ago, Boston said:

When talking about a player like Michel and the Pats you should only look at the big picture (which is his talent)...BB has never under-utilized talent on the offensive-side of things...no one leaves the Pats and a couple of years later you end up saying BB should have used him more...if you are a stud like Moss, Gronk, Edelman, Welker, Troy Brown kind of for a few years or Dillon he is going to use you a ton and you are going to put up legit numbers...if you are not a stud/high end talent he is going use you as some type of role-player or use you based on game situations (and often these two over-lap)...these are players like Blount, Lewis, Maroney, Faulk, Branch, BGJE, Patten, Gaffney, Amendola, Hogan, Givens, Fauria, Graham and Watson...that group has provided fantasy owners a lot of headaches over the years... so my point about Michel is do not worry about anything other than whether you think talent-wise he belongs in the first group or the second...if you are sold on his talent grab him...if not than pass on him...it is that simple...evaluating this kid should be based 100% on talent because that will ultimately dictate how much BB uses him... 

And we have some idea what Belichick thinks about his talent.

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16 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

And we have some idea what Belichick thinks about his talent.

You would think the fact he used a #1 on him when they had other glaring holes is a rather large statement...does not guarantee he will be a stud but I don't think he is bringing him in to be used like the next Kevin Faulk (who I loved by the way)...

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3 hours ago, FGITLOTR said:

Given his injury history and proclivity to put the bill on the turf, people are seriously overvaluing this kid. No question he’s talented, but for redraft leagues, I’ll take Burkhead all day long

Sure, redraft maybe you take the much cheaper Burkhead. I’m one who was avoiding Michel all spring due to his fumbling issues, but that number is not as alarming if you look at just the last couple years. Total of 5 fumbles the last 2 years, 2 of which were lost. Seems like he got better at it already. Sure, when you look at it on a per carry basis it’s alarming, but the last 2 years were so terrible. 308 carries, 31 rec, 71 kickoffs, 5 fumbles, 2 lost. Even his sophomore season he only lost 1 fumble. I think people are seriously overvaluing this negative. 

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34 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Sure, redraft maybe you take the much cheaper Burkhead. I’m one who was avoiding Michel all spring due to his fumbling issues, but that number is not as alarming if you look at just the last couple years. Total of 5 fumbles the last 2 years, 2 of which were lost. Seems like he got better at it already. Sure, when you look at it on a per carry basis it’s alarming, but the last 2 years were so terrible. 308 carries, 31 rec, 71 kickoffs, 5 fumbles, 2 lost. Even his sophomore season he only lost 1 fumble. I think people are seriously overvaluing this negative. 

I have no dog in this fight, but it's weird to focus on "fumbles lost."  Whether or not a fumble ends up "lost" is basically a random event.   A fumble is a fumble - once it happens, there is a meaningful chance the fumble gets recovered by the D.  Small sample size, so it's weird to overly fixate on a guy having a small percentage of fumbles that end up lost....

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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

Sure, redraft maybe you take the much cheaper Burkhead. I’m one who was avoiding Michel all spring due to his fumbling issues, but that number is not as alarming if you look at just the last couple years. Total of 5 fumbles the last 2 years, 2 of which were lost. Seems like he got better at it already. Sure, when you look at it on a per carry basis it’s alarming, but the last 2 years were so terrible. 308 carries, 31 rec, 71 kickoffs, 5 fumbles, 2 lost. Even his sophomore season he only lost 1 fumble. I think people are seriously overvaluing this negative. 

That’s a great post and I didn’t know that was the case 

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2 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

I have no dog in this fight, but it's weird to focus on "fumbles lost."  Whether or not a fumble ends up "lost" is basically a random event.   A fumble is a fumble - once it happens, there is a meaningful chance the fumble gets recovered by the D.  Small sample size, so it's weird to overly fixate on a guy having a small percentage of fumbles that end up lost....

I’m more focusing on the decrease in fumbles his last 2 years, and I agree with the point you’re taking issue with. I’m trying to find a cut up with his lowlights but not having any luck. 

If you look upthread somewhere I’m on the avoid train (probably up to the draft) because of his fumbling. I’ve changed my tune a bit simply because I think the upside is worth the risk. I don’t know if there is any sort of positive correlation to lost fumble % so you’re absolutely right to view a fumble as a fumble. 

I also am curious to find some footage of his fumbles- some may be attributed to a botched hand off, lax security as he gets hit out of bounds, or simply a good defenseive play. I don’t see him carrying the ball way out away from his body, or failing to cover it up through traffic. Perhaps someone, @Biabreakable maybe, who has watched and charted his carries a little closer could chime in on this. 

Without looking up his college stats, I know Adrian Peterson fumbled a lot in the nfl, but it was worth the risk to give him carries. Michel could be in the same boat. 

One final arguement: pretty much everyone has been burned in the last decade by a pats rb. Lots of people want to avoid Sony michel because of this. Therefore, michel will have a transcendent season, just to further screw more people. Case closed, draft with confidence!!!

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16 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Gillislee, Hill, and White? Yeah, I'll take my chances with Michel, thanks. 

Obviously- it's just a matter of cost. Michel's could rocket up once the masses see him in preseason.

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16 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Gillislee, Hill, and White? Yeah, I'll take my chances with Michel, thanks. 

I think Hill is a big x-factor and here is why...if he makes the team it has to be in the goal-line short yardage role...he is not a special teamer and with Michel, White and Burkhead on the team the other roles are covered...if Hill is there I could easily see him getting somewhere around 12 TDS...if he is not there than those TDs are gonna go elsewhere and my guess is it is either Michel or Burkhead or a combo of both...that could really inflate their values...Gillislee is still around and if he makes it he could grab that role but after last year I am very hesitant about him...

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11 minutes ago, Boston said:

I think Hill is a big x-factor and here is why...if he makes the team it has to be in the goal-line short yardage role...he is not a special teamer and with Michel, White and Burkhead on the team the other roles are covered...if Hill is there I could easily see him getting somewhere around 12 TDS...if he is not there than those TDs are gonna go elsewhere and my guess is it is either Michel or Burkhead or a combo of both...that could really inflate their values...Gillislee is still around and if he makes it he could grab that role but after last year I am very hesitant about him...

If Hill makes the team wouldn't either him or Burkhead be inactive each week?

Bolden will be active since he's a special team player, which would make 4 RBs active (White, Michel, Burkhead/Hill. Bolden) and 5 if you count FB James Develin. I can't see them dressing 5 RBs and a FB each week.

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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