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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Sony Michel, Patriots


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Just now, OnTheReg said:

Splitting hairs but they are the Owners obviously. You think they are getting involved over a personnel decision such as whether to bring Rex Burkhead back? Come on now. BB does what he wants. 

Apparently you haven't been following this off season in particular for NE. Just because Bill does what he wants and usually gets his way, there are still other voices in New England (the Krafts for one, McDaniels for another). I am not sure those guys would have either brought in and retained Burkhead. But Bill loves him, so here we are. No matter how Burkhead got to be there, he definitely will impact what happens with Michel (which is what we are really discussing here).

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If  NE's RB usage patterns give you pause something to consider, not a decision maker as there is a lot to consider here but a reason why I think this is a good landing spot for Michel and not worried

Just heard a 15 minute discussion about this exact issue on the radio. Last year, when Michel was in the game he got the ball 85% of the time. Because of that, teams have been playing 8 in the box. As

Let’s not exaggerate. It’s only been 22. 

Just now, Anarchy99 said:

Apparently you haven't been following this off season in particular for NE. Just because Bill does what he wants and usually gets his way, there are still other voices in New England (the Krafts for one, McDaniels for another). I am not sure those guys would have either brought in and retained Burkhead. But Bill loves him, so here we are. No matter how Burkhead got to be there, he definitely will impact what happens with Michel (which is what we are really discussing here).

No, I live in Boston actually, and I don't buy into the talk radio BS that has been swirling around the Pats the past year. But yes, we're off topic here, I agree that Burkhead's presence limits Michel's upside for sure. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

No one wanted to hold it against Perine that he split carries with Mixon either. I remember people were over the moon for Perine. 

That seems like a relevant statement. Thanks.

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20 minutes ago, OnTheReg said:

Splitting hairs but they are the Owners obviously. You think they are getting involved over a personnel decision such as whether to bring Rex Burkhead back? Come on now. BB does what he wants. 

You have not been paying attention to the stories this offseason on the butting of heads and who is really calling the shots. BB traded/gave away Jimmy G against his own wishes because Kraft demanded he do so. 

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Good point- Bell was a bit of a miss by the draft community. Maybe I remembering incorrectly, but I thought people saw him as maybe a Kerryon Johnson level talent. Good, dependable between the tackles but not likely to be a 3 down feature. 

I didn’t love his MSU tape. IIRC he cut a sizable amount of weight and got in shape leading up to the combine. He’s kept it off and has been much more explosive as a result. I certainly missed hard on him, loading up on Lacy instead. :X

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23 minutes ago, Boston said:

I can guarantee with 100% certainty that if BB has to run by a Rex Burkhead type of decision with anyone else in the organization before he makes it that he would not be in Foxboro right now...

Just because Bill does what he wants doesn't always mean everyone else has to agree with him or buy in at the time, whether that be players, coordinators, or owners. People can have different opinions. From what I have heard, Bill mostly went it alone on Burkhead. It's good to be the king.

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14 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I didn’t love his MSU tape. IIRC he cut a sizable amount of weight and got in shape leading up to the combine. He’s kept it off and has been much more explosive as a result. I certainly missed hard on him, loading up on Lacy instead. :X

I think a lot of the cut weight happened between rookie year and year 2, but maybe I was wrong. Him being local at MSU, I liked Bell maybe more than most.I saw how every game he was the entire MSU offense and how much of a beast he was to shoulder the workload he did. But yeah, I never saw this pass catching phenom coming. 

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4 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

Good point- Bell was a bit of a miss by the draft community. Maybe I remembering incorrectly, but I thought people saw him as maybe a Kerryon Johnson level talent. Good, dependable between the tackles but not likely to be a 3 down feature. 

Depends what you mean by draft community. If you are talking about like people on this board yes most missed but I don't think the actual NFL drafting community missed on him.

Some might say he's just a success because he reshaped his body but I actually recall where I was sitting when I read this article on March 1st, 2013: Leveon Bell emerging as best RB in 2013 draft

Anyway I just checked in this thread as a concerned Michel owner and saw this discussion. Sorry to bump thread for those, like me, who would like to get an update on Michel injury news.

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2 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Depends what you mean by draft community. If you are talking about like people on this board yes most missed but I don't think the actual NFL drafting community missed on him.

Some might say he's just a success because he reshaped his body but I actually recall where I was sitting when I read this article on March 1st, 2013: Leveon Bell emerging as best RB in 2013 draft

Anyway I just checked in this thread as a concerned Michel owner and saw this discussion. Sorry to bump thread for those, like me, who would like to get an update on Michel injury news.

Nice, I remember this one from NFL.com


 

Quote

 

NFL COMPARISON

 LeGarrette Blount


 

 

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https://www.patriots.com/news/day-6-blogservations-cannon-michel-exit-early

I don't like hearing the words "skipped" or "quasi limped", especially when those words were preceded by the notion that he was in space. I don't like the silence coming from patriots camp on this injury. I don't like Michels absence from practice Thursday. I don't like this situation at all....and I'm starting to get worried. Maybe we'll know more when BB talks to the media tomorrow.....

 

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8 hours ago, Mark Football said:

https://www.patriots.com/news/day-6-blogservations-cannon-michel-exit-early

I don't like hearing the words "skipped" or "quasi limped", especially when those words were preceded by the notion that he was in space. I don't like the silence coming from patriots camp on this injury. I don't like Michels absence from practice Thursday. I don't like this situation at all....and I'm starting to get worried. Maybe we'll know more when BB talks to the media tomorrow.....

 

With his injury history, you have to be worried. 

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On 8/1/2018 at 5:47 AM, Ilov80s said:

Probably, but again people aren't always rational. Have you ever bought something thinking you would use it all the time and then rarely do? Not because the item is broken or doesn't live up to your standards, but just because you were wrong about how much you really wanted/needed it? 

Well I was thinking about buying a lightly used Peleton from @Otis. Are you saying I shouldn't?

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1 minute ago, Chaka said:

Well I was thinking about buying a lightly used Peleton from @Otis. Are you saying I shouldn't?

Oh that is different, people never regret buying exercise equipment

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11 hours ago, Mark Football said:

https://www.patriots.com/news/day-6-blogservations-cannon-michel-exit-early

I don't like hearing the words "skipped" or "quasi limped", especially when those words were preceded by the notion that he was in space. I don't like the silence coming from patriots camp on this injury. I don't like Michels absence from practice Thursday. I don't like this situation at all....and I'm starting to get worried. Maybe we'll know more when BB talks to the media tomorrow.....

 

As opposed to those other times when the Patriots are totally forthcoming with injuries? I'm worried anytime a player is out and I don't know any details, so yea I'm worried here. But getting kept in the dark is not by itself a reason, it's just par for the course.

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12 hours ago, Mark Football said:

https://www.patriots.com/news/day-6-blogservations-cannon-michel-exit-early

I don't like hearing the words "skipped" or "quasi limped", especially when those words were preceded by the notion that he was in space. I don't like the silence coming from patriots camp on this injury. I don't like Michels absence from practice Thursday. I don't like this situation at all....and I'm starting to get worried. Maybe we'll know more when BB talks to the media tomorrow.....

 

well, could be a myriad of things. wish I had a video of the play or even how he limped. I could give some educated speculation to it. 

Based off information I can dig up, probably a strain of some sort

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

well, could be a myriad of things. wish I had a video of the play or even how he limped. I could give some educated speculation to it. 

Based off information I can dig up, probably a strain of some sort

He probably broke his neck. He's done.

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30 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

He probably broke his neck. He's done.

:lol:

I'm interested to find out what he did that's for sure. the silence would be extremely concerning for something quite serious on any other NFL team. for the Pat's, he could have a hang nail and it would be top secret. 

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20 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

:lol:

I'm interested to find out what he did that's for sure. the silence would be extremely concerning for something quite serious on any other NFL team. for the Pat's, he could have a hang nail and it would be top secret. 

A hang nail won't be good for his fumbling....

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On ‎7‎/‎31‎/‎2018 at 11:44 PM, twood said:

I just got Michel at the 1/06 and am quite pleased. The Pats can be a dominating running team when they want to be. After the loss of their LT, Cooks and Edelman being suspended early in the season, is this the year the transfer from a pass happy team to a running team.

 

Very odd selection of Michel in the 1st if they don't plan on him being an integral part of the offense.

 

 

 

In the Belichek era, there have been 17 first round picks by the Pats.  Of those 17, only three have been players that were in fantasy positions... the other 14 were all defense or linemen.

2004 1st round pick TE Ben Watson played only one game his rookie year, I think because of injury, but in his second year, he still only had 29 receptions... certainly not what most would consider an "integral part" of the offense.  

2006 1st round pick  Laurence Maroney got 197 touches as a rookie running second fiddle to Corey Dillon and 189 his second year with the exalted Sammy Morris coming in second with only 91 touches... now that IS an integral part of the offense.  

If its like the Watson approach, Michel will have to take time to get Tom's confidence.  This is doubtful since we are talking RB and not TE where the learning curve and climb to relevance is much shorter.

If its the Maroney approach, he may get plenty of touches to be a strong fantasy asset, but still run second to an RB acquired from the Cincy Bengals.  : )

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Maroney averaged about 15 carries per game his first two seasons. He missed 2 games his rookie year after busting up his ribs (also had a knee injury late in preseason.) He missed 3 games in '07 due to a groin injury. Include his carries in 3 post season games and it was 246 for the year and 4.5ypc, pro-rate out just his regular season games and it would have been 232 carries. '08 he landed on IR after an injury in week 2.

Maroney was definitely intended to be an integral part of the offense and the lead rushing back, unfortunately he was a china doll. Ben Watson was another guy that could never stay healthy, he also came into the league as an old man already.

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1 hour ago, nittanylion said:

Any of you Pats fans been around long enough to remember Robert Edwards?

Definitely...a forgotten man...looked very legit as a rookie...over 1,400 total yards and 12 total TDs his first year...had 35 receptions for 331 yards in 1998 which in 2018 inflation numbers is probably around 60 and 600...some-how got the worst knee injury ever in sand and that was that...

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The narrative that NE never plays rookie RB's is kind of flawed.   Maroney is the only RB they have drafted in the 1st round in the past 15 years.

We don't know what they will do with a 1st round rookie RB.  If they use him like the other 1st round RB they drafted he will be fine.

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1 minute ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

The narrative that NE never plays rookie RB's is kind of flawed.   Maroney is the only RB they have drafted in the 1st round in the past 15 years.

We don't know what they will do with a 1st round rookie RB.  If they use him like the other 1st round RB they drafted he will be fine.

:goodposting:

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

Burkhead has never had 75 carries in a season...but apparently this is the year.  :crazy:

 

HARD PASS

Good point.  You know who else never had 75 carries in a season going?  Dion Lewis going into 2017.  Then he did.  Apparently that was the season for him.  Weird how that works.

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2 minutes ago, Bayhawks said:

Good point.  You know who else never had 75 carries in a season going?  Dion Lewis going into 2017.  Then he did.  Apparently that was the season for him.  Weird how that works.

You play probabilities in FF, not exceptions/outliers.

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7 hours ago, TripItUp said:

You play probabilities in FF, not exceptions/outliers.

Oh, Okay.

So, if something happens consistently, over multiple years, that would fall into the probability category, not the exception/outlier category?

And if something rarely (never?) happens, that would fall into the exception/outlier category, not the probability category?

Because the last 3 years, the Patriots' leading RB (in carries) was a player who had been on the Pats the previous year, had been acquired as a FA, and increased his carries by over 100 from his previous year with the Pats.

And I don't think there has EVER been a rookie RB leading the Pats in RB carries during the BB years.

So, we have Rex Burkhead being projected for way more carries than he had last year, after playing for the Pats last year, and having been acquired by BB as a FA; and we have Sony Michel, who is a rookie RB.

Which one falls into the probability and exception/outlier categories again?

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There needs to a context on rookie RBs in the BB era...the context is there really not much context...here are the rookies drafted during his era:

https://247sports.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/Bolt/Running-back-Bill-Belichicks-Patriots-draft-history-36950689/

There is really only one you can compare to Michel that had a chance to put up legit numbers in his rookie year...first round pick Laurence Maroney had 175-745-6 numbers on the ground sharing the backfield with Dillon and Faulk...the thing to remember with Maroney is he was pretty good but nothing special that year...it's not like he deserved more touches than he got even though Dillon was on his last legs...as far as rookie RBs under BB goes I would not factor that too much into how you feel about Michel because the draft history is pretty limited which means there is not relevant data to study...if anything the biggest factor when you look at BB's draft history with RBs is he used a #1 on Michel because traditionally this position has got almost no love on draft day...

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10 hours ago, SameSongNDance said:

I don't think he will remain undervalued (9th round) between now and draft day. You got too many likes for that statement. 

Yep, he’s going about 6th round now in best ball.

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1 hour ago, Boston said:

There needs to a context on rookie RBs in the BB era...the context is there really not much context...here are the rookies drafted during his era:

https://247sports.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/Bolt/Running-back-Bill-Belichicks-Patriots-draft-history-36950689/

There is really only one you can compare to Michel that had a chance to put up legit numbers in his rookie year...first round pick Laurence Maroney had 175-745-6 numbers on the ground sharing the backfield with Dillon and Faulk...the thing to remember with Maroney is he was pretty good but nothing special that year...it's not like he deserved more touches than he got even though Dillon was on his last legs...as far as rookie RBs under BB goes I would not factor that too much into how you feel about Michel because the draft history is pretty limited which means there is not relevant data to study...if anything the biggest factor when you look at BB's draft history with RBs is he used a #1 on Michel because traditionally this position has got almost no love on draft day...

While I agree with this, my post was in response to someone who wanted to talk about probabilities& outliers.  HIS logic suggests that Burkhead, not Michel, has a better shot at higher FF value this year, based on probabilities, trends, exceptions, outliers, etc. 

Just looking at what has happened in the past is a flawed methodology to try to project what will happen in the future.  Michel’s talent is a HUGE factor that must be considered, but the argument that Burkhead has never had 75+ carries before, so he can’t do it now is horribly flawed.

Edited by Bayhawks
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Going back 15 years, here is the list of RBs and WRs drafted by the NE Patriots:

 

Malcolm Mitchell
Devin Lucien
James White
Jeremy Gallon
Aaron Dobson
Josh Boyce
Jeremy Ebert
Shane Vereen
Stevan Ridley
Lee Smith
Taylor Price
Brandon Tate
Julian Edelman
Matt Slater
Justine Hairston
Laurence Maroney
Chad Jackson
Cedric Cobbs
P.K. Sam
Bethel Johnson

 

I'm not sure if there's a team that's done any worse at drafting at these 2 positions for so long.  Other than Edelman, there's almost no quality on that list (and he was irrelevant until his 5th year when pushed into action due to injuries). 

The Pats do a lot of things right, but drafting these skill positions isn't one of them.  They have such an awful record over such a long period of time that I've learned to just ignore any RBs or WRs they draft.  I'll end up missing on one eventually (could be Michel this year), but I won't lose any sleep over it. 

Edited by gianmarco
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During the predraft process, The Ringer’s Michael Lombardi reported Michel had a bone-on-bone knee condition. Michel tore his ACL in high school in 2011. In 2017 during the SEC title game, he injured his left knee again.  https://patriotswire.usatoday.com/2018/08/04/report-patriots-rookie-rb-sony-michel-dealing-with-knee-injury/

The article above claims "suffered a knee injury"  I really thought it could have been just a stinger or something  Knowing the Patriots (guessing game) Sony could see IR but w designation to return which just adds to the confusion 

Overall I think this is gonna be a tough backfield to judge with or without Sony  Rex has sat behind some stiff competition but he's getting paid!  

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13 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

Going back 15 years, here is the list of RBs and WRs drafted by the NE Patriots:

 

Malcolm Mitchell
Devin Lucien
James White
Jeremy Gallon
Aaron Dobson
Josh Boyce
Jeremy Ebert
Shane Vereen
Stevan Ridley
Lee Smith
Taylor Price
Brandon Tate
Julian Edelman
Matt Slater
Justine Hairston
Laurence Maroney
Chad Jackson

 

I'm not sure if there's a team that's done any worse at drafting at these 2 positions for so long.  Other than Edelman, there's almost no quality on that list (and he was irrelevant until his 5th year when pushed into action due to injuries). 

The Pats do a lot of things right, but drafting these skill positions isn't one of them.  They have such an awful record over such a long period of time that I've learned to just ignore any RBs or WRs they draft.  I'll end up missing on one eventually (could be Michel this year), but I won't lose any sleep over it. 

Tell me in advance that James White would be the second-greatest RB/WR a team got in 15 years and I would have a hard time projectng them for 4 Super Bowls, 7 conference championships and 14 division titles.

Impressive for the coach, QB and front office.

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9 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Burkhead has never had 75 carries in a season...but apparently this is the year.  :crazy:

 

HARD PASS

Michel has never had 75 carries in an NFL season either. In fact, he only averaged 12 carries a game in his college career. Burkhead averaged 14 carries a game in college and had a season with 305 touches at Nebraska (Michel had a high of 244). True be told, we have no idea if either Michel or Burkhead could be a featured back in the NFL workload wise. 

But since you keep bashing Burkhead and are a Michel fanboy . . .

Burkhead was hurt much of last year. He started the season, got hurt again, was brought along slowly, and ultimately missed the second half of the season.

He only took 196 snaps. Dion Lewis, the player everyone wants to compare Michel to for expected performance, played 404 snaps. If you want to predict more injuries for Burkhead, so be it. I can't argue hypothetical injuries. In Weeks 8-13 last year, Burkhead averaged 26 snaps a game (which was a pace for a projected 422 snaps over a full season).

If we simply double the number of snaps Burkhead had last year and he performed at the same rate, he would have had 128 carries, 528 rushing yards, 10 rushing TD, 60 receptions, 508 receiving yards, and 6 TD. And that was him playing hurt most of the year. That would have ranked as the #8 RB in PPR leagues in 2017.

There was absolutely nothing to find fault with production wise from Burkhead last year other then his inability to stay on the field. Over the past two seasons, Burkhead has scored 207.7 fantasy points in 185 touches for a juicy 1.12 fantasy points per touch. Kamara last year was 1.16 points/touch. Gurley was 0.94.

We have no idea what Burkhead's workload will be or if he can stay healthy. Both of those are legit questions. But he's been one of the most productive RB's in the league when he gets the ball. If Burkead can manage 150 or 175 touches, Michel will have problems being a worthy fantasy starter or difference maker. By comparison, Dillon on his last legs managed 214 touches when Maroney was a rookie. Let's not forget White has averaged 100 touches a year the past two years, and NE loves him as a receiver, safety valve/outlet guy, and clutch 3rd down player.

Michel averaged a fumble every 54 touches in college. The average fumble rate for college prospects is 1 fumble every 125 touches. And we already know BB will not tolerate fumbling.

As touched upon in other posts and threads, we don't know if Michel can block on regular blocking assignments, if he can pick up blitzers, if the team and Brady trust him, and how his game will adapt to the NFL. There is no doubt he is extremely talented, but there is more to being a productive player than just talent. Michel only caught 9 passes as a senior last year . . . not sure if that means anything or not. Burkead and White could easily get 100 receptions this year between them (last year they had 86 and both players missed time).

Maybe you are right and Michel is so light years ahead of the rest of the NE backfield that BB will change his was after 18 years as the Patriots coach. Yes, Michel could be in for a difference making season if Burkhead gets hurt (not really a stretch), if he turns into a receiving threat (to be determined), if other backs also get hurt (always a possibility), if he can hold on to the football (not off to a great start in that category so far), and if he can keep Brady clean (probably the single most important thing he has to master). However, I don't see his situation being much different than other backs on other teams greatly benefiting should multiple backs on their team get hurt.

Long story long, IMO people are drafting Michel too early based on upside potential that realistically will be hard to materialize unless so many things go his way. Another example people bring up is Kamara. However, last year Kamara had an ADP of 118 last year at MFL. Based on FBG info, Michel has an ADP of 43 at MFL. That's around 7 rounds difference. The fact of the matter is, Michel is in a RBBC / time share, and I personally don't seeing NE making a radical departure to that this year. Maybe as Michel gets more experience in future years, but not as much now.

If I had to fathom a guess, I would project Michel for 175-200 touches (but limited receptions and modest TDs), Burkhead 150-175 touches (with a lot of receptions and scoring opportunities), White with 100 touches (mostly receptions and nominal TDs), a pounder from either GIllislee or Hill to play in garbage time and give the other guys a break (say 50 carries), and Develin 5-10 receptions. That would add up to the 500-530 touch range NE usually utilizes their RBs for.

So maybe Michel gets 185 carries, 825 yards, 5 TD, 15 receptions, 120 receiving yards, 0 TD = 139.5 fantasy points in PPR. In PPR leagues last season, that would have ranked as RB35. According to FBG ADP data for MFL (where I do all my drafts), Michel's current ADP is RB18 (but I expect he will start going earlier the closer the season starts as many others won't buy into Burkhead).

By comparison, Burkhead has an ADP of 41 (129th overall), and while this may be a radical position, if healthy I think Burkhead will outproduce Michel this season fantasy wise. 100 carries, 430 yards, 6 TD, 50 receptions, 450 receiving yards, 4 TD = 198 fantasy points in PPR leagues. Last year that would have ranked as RB15 . . . which is exactly where Dion Lewis ranked.

While you are a hard pass on Burkhead, I am equally a hard pass on Michel given the landscape and ADP. Draft a guy in the 4th round and get RB3-4 production or draft a guy in the 11th round and benefit from mid range RB2 production? To me it is not a difficult decision.

 

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41 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

Going back 15 years, here is the list of RBs and WRs drafted by the NE Patriots:

 

Malcolm Mitchell
Devin Lucien
James White
Jeremy Gallon
Aaron Dobson
Josh Boyce
Jeremy Ebert
Shane Vereen
Stevan Ridley
Lee Smith
Taylor Price
Brandon Tate
Julian Edelman
Matt Slater
Justine Hairston
Laurence Maroney
Chad Jackson
Cedric Cobbs
P.K. Sam
Bethel Johnson

 

I'm not sure if there's a team that's done any worse at drafting at these 2 positions for so long.  Other than Edelman, there's almost no quality on that list (and he was irrelevant until his 5th year when pushed into action due to injuries). 

The Pats do a lot of things right, but drafting these skill positions isn't one of them.  They have such an awful record over such a long period of time that I've learned to just ignore any RBs or WRs they draft.  I'll end up missing on one eventually (could be Michel this year), but I won't lose any sleep over it. 

Not sure how relevant listing later round picks are. Most teams will bomb on those picks, that's a league wide thing, not only a Patriots thing. Here are the skill position players NE has drafted in the first two rounds in the BB era. Note that most of them are second round picks, not first rounders.

2002 21st pick - TE Daniel Graham
Was used primarily as a top run blocker than a receiving TE. Not a great pick but had more NFL value than abysmal fantasy value.

2002 65th pick - WR Deion Branch
Never a great player but had some decent NFL season. Better NFL player than fantasy receiver.

2003 45th pick WR Bethel Johnson
Bust.

2004 32rd pick TE Ben Watson
Mixed bag. He's still playing at a decent level 15 years later. Not many TE's play 15 years.

2006 21st pick RB Laurence Maroney
Had a couple of ok seasons, but mostly an NFL and fantasy bust.

2006 36th pick Chad Johnson
Bust.

2010 42nd pick TE Rob Gronkowski
Could go down as the greatest TE ever if he plays long enough.

2011 56th pick RB Shane Vereen
Brought in to be a specialist / receiving back. Did that pretty well, but not exactly a fantasy force.

2013 59th pick WR Aaron Dobson
Bust.

2013 62nd pick QB Jimmy Garoppolo
Has never lost a game. Destined to be the first undefeated QB of all time.

Still not great, but landing an all-time great TE, a potential franchise QB, and another TE with a 15 year career is a decent hit rate considering the Pats never get to draft near the top of the draft. That's not that bad for 10 total picks.

ETA: I agree that the busts really didn't do much, and that makes their draft record look bad. But the ones they hit on have been decent or very good players.

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can we just agree that there are about 27-32 other RBs that you could take instead of either Michel or Burkhead..I'm not sure why there's such a heated debate here. you're arguing over 3rd/4th RBs on your roster..it's like saying which is a better car, the Ford Pinto or a Yugo. people are trying to fit a square peg in a round hole with the Pats backfield, which individually stinks but collectively they get the job done.  you can find more value elsewhere! let someone else deal with the inconsistent Pats backfield.

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